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Spencer Li

Weekly Market Wrap: UK Tax Cut Reversals Spark Market Rebound?

Market Analysis
Garden Route South Africa

Although there was a short-term bullish rebound in the markets from the UK tax cut reversal, the impact was short-lived, and in fact it provided us a good shorting opportunity to enter at better prices on the rebound.

The long-term trend is still bullish, and as I just shared in the private signals group, until our leading indicator flashes a reversal signal, I won’t be expecting a reversal in the stock market any time soon.

Our current new short positions are already in the money, so we will continue riding and managing these positions for next week as well.

There are some good trading opportunities to sell various currencies against the US dollar, since it is expected that the USD will continue heading up.

At this point in the market, the main drivers of price are the CPI, NFP and FOMC data, so try to focus on these and filter out the noise in the market. Observe these data releases together with price action and chart patterns, and it will give clues to the market direction.

As per usual, I will be posting updates and trading opportunities in our Daily Trading Signals Telegram channel, so do join us if you are an active trader, or looking to time the market better!

 

Garden Route South Africa

[Photo: Garden Route, South Africa – See my full travel photo log!]

For our weekly market wrap, we go through some of the trade calls and analysis from last week, which gives us valuable insights for the week ahead.

We cover 3 main markets with a total of 200+ counters, so we will never run out of trading opportunities:

  • Forex, CFDs, commodities, bonds
  • US stocks, ETFs, global stock indices
  • Cryptocurrencies, crypto indices

By covering a broad range of markets, we can focus our attention (and capital) on whichever market currently gives the best returns.

Click here to receive all these signals in real-time for only $67 a month! You will get several signals a day, and even taking just 1 trade the whole month can easily cover the fee, so what are you waiting for? Trading Signals Commodity 050322 emoji

 

Weekly Market Outlook Video

Trading Signals Weekly Market outlook 181022 1

Weekly Market Outlook (18 October 2022)
? Next rate hike in about 25 days
? UK reverses tax cuts, short-term bullish for risk assets
? Long-term bearish for stocks, crypto, REITs, commods, etc.
? Long-term bullish for USD, but short-term bearish

 

Portfolio Highlights

Trading Signals Portfolio 171022

Weekly Portfolio Update (17 October 2022)

Added more T-bills since yields are now about 4%, meaning I can make a risk-free gain for the next 6 months, while conserving my capital for the big crash.

At this point, it is a very defensive portfolio.

Holding small amounts of various short positions, since the prevailing major trend is bearish. Will close and take profits if the market rebounds against those positions.

 

Forex & Commodities Market Highlights

Trading Signals Forex Exposure 171022

Weekly Forex Exposure (17 October 2022)

For the past few weeks, I have been mainly rotating between USD and SGD to maximise gains for my portfolio (since my living expenses are in SGD where I live, but if you live elsewhere, then you can rotate it between your local currency).

Since USD has weakened slightly, I have reduced my exposure to it, but I am expecting the USD bull trend to continue at some point, so I am always monitoring to rotate back to a 80% USD exposure.

 

Trading Signals AUDNZD 181022

The AUDNZD has broke down from its trendline, and it is likely to be bearish/sideways. Look for small consolidations to initiate short positions.

 

Trading Signals EURCHF 181022

Potential bullish reversal for the EURCHF if the inverse H&S pattern completes and price manages to break the neckline.

I have placed a price alert so that we will know the moment it happens.

 

Trading Signals EURJPY 181022

Bullish H&S continuation pattern on the EURJPY, making it a good opportunity to long on any pullbacks or on smaller timeframes.

 

Trading Signals GBPCAD 181022

The GBPCAD recently broke the bearish trendline, as it turned up from a very oversold position.

Short/medium-term price action is strong, so I will not be surprised if it manages to head up to test the next resistance level.

 

Trading Signals USDSGD 191022

After a 1-month ABC correction, the USDSGD might start to resume its uptrend. I have rotated more of my SGD into USD to prepare for this.

 

Stock & Bond Market Highlights

Trading Signals US100 191022

If the NASDAQ 100 (US100) is unable to clear this zone and stay above it, then there is a good chance we will see more downside.

 

Trading Signals China Stocks 201022

Same for general China stocks (2801), which is down about 60% from all-time highs.

 

Trading Signals China Tech Stocks 201022

China tech stocks (3067) are still in free fall, after breaking down from a recent bear flag. Currently down about 72% from all-time highs.

 

Trading Signals Inflation 191022

Worldwide Inflation

 

Trading Signals ARKK news 141022

$ARKK officially in the red over the last 5 years. pic.twitter.com/04JjQro6Kf

— Oktay Kavrak, CFA (@OKavrak) October 14, 2022

 

Trading Signals treasury yields 141022

The gap between 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields has reached the most inverted since the early 1980s. pic.twitter.com/ywCx0XQPP7

— Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) October 14, 2022

 

Trading Signals US interest rates 141022

Visualizing 40 Years of U.S. Interest Rates

 

 

Click here to receive all these signals in real-time for only $67 a month! You will get several signals a day, and even taking just 1 trade the whole month can easily cover the fee, so what are you waiting for? Trading Signals Commodity 050322 emoji

Good luck, and may next week bring more excellent profits!

0 Comments/by Spencer Li
https://synapsetrading.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Garden-Route-South-Africa.jpg 756 1008 Spencer Li https://synapsetrading.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/logo.jpg Spencer Li2022-10-20 19:45:152022-10-21 17:00:41Weekly Market Wrap: UK Tax Cut Reversals Spark Market Rebound?
Spencer Li

Weekly Market Wrap: Market Rebound on Higher Inflation Data??!!!

Market Analysis
2022 09 05 18 57 18

Last week, all eyes were on the CPI (Consumer Price Index) data, because if inflation does not slow down, it suggests that the measures taken so far are insufficient, then there is a high chance that the Fed will continue raising rates more aggressively (which is bad for markets).

As markets drifted downwards, we continued to manage our shorts, and take profits on our open positions. I also advised to rotate out of USD to SGD, since there might be a weakening of USD.

Surprisingly, even though the CPI was much higher than expected, prices behaved erratically, by first plunging, then recovering and closing up. Thus it is possible that markets have been oversold and much has been priced in.

Now, how should we approach such a market, especially ahead of the rate hikes coming in about 2-3 weeks?

Stayed tuned for my Weekly Market Outlook video in the Daily Trading Signals Telegram channel!

2022 09 05 18 57 18

[Photo: Yurt Camping, Kyrgyzstan – See my full travel photo log!]

For our weekly market wrap, we go through some of the trade calls and analysis from last week, which gives us valuable insights for the week ahead.

We cover 3 main markets with a total of 200+ counters, so we will never run out of trading opportunities:

  • Forex, CFDs, commodities, bonds
  • US stocks, ETFs, global stock indices
  • Cryptocurrencies, crypto indices

By covering a broad range of markets, we can focus our attention (and capital) on whichever market currently gives the best returns.

Click here to receive all these signals in real-time for only $67 a month! You will get several signals a day, and even taking just 1 trade the whole month can easily cover the fee, so what are you waiting for? Trading Signals Commodity 050322 emoji

 

Weekly Market Outlook Video

Trading Signals Weekly Market Outlook 101022

Weekly Market Outlook (10 October 2022)
? More rate hikes coming on 2nd Nov? CPI release on 13 October.
? Long-term bearish for stocks, crypto, REITs, commods, etc. Slightly in the money now, continue to add more short positions on pullbacks.
? Long-term bullish for USD

 

Portfolio Highlights

Trading Signals Portfolio 111022

Weekly Portfolio Update (11 October 2022)

Reinstated short positions on stocks, crypto, REITs. Bought some short-term fixed income products to generate yield in the short/medium-term while waiting for buying opportunities.

 

Forex & Commodities Market Highlights

Trading Signals Forex Exposure 111022

Weekly Forex Exposure (11 October 2022)

Most exposure is in USD, with the rest in SGD, and short positions on EUR.

 

Trading Signals NZDUSD 131022

NZD is weak against the USD, and NZDUSD has formed a bear flag and is continuing to head downwards.

 

Trading Signals AUDUSD 131022

A similar pattern is seen on the AUDUSD, where a bear flag is formed and prices continue to fall. Great for shorting on any pullbacks.

 

Trading Signals USDSGD 131022

MAS might take steps to strengthen the SGD, which will cause the USDSGD to fall.

Technicals-wise, there is strong resistance at the 1.44 level, with price getting rejected twice at that level.

The RSI is also turning down from an overbought region.

There might be a correction, so I am reducing my USD exposure.

 

Trading Signals XAUUSD 131022

Gold (XAUUSD) continues to be bearish, as the Fed continues to hike rates to push inflation down. Gold is a leading indicator of inflation.

 

Trading Signals Oil News 131022

Could this be a bullish catalyst for oil? https://www.newtraderu.com/2022/10/12/the-worst-oil-crisis-in-40-years-has-started/

 

Stock & Bond Market Highlights

Trading Signals Global inflation 081022

Global Inflation Rates

 

Trading Signals how to buy T bills 131022

? Simple guide for those who have been asking me how to buy T-bills for 4% yield. (You might want to bookmark it.)

(Check out the full guide in our Daily Trading Signals Telegram channel.

 

Trading Signals Dow News 081022

‘It’s the interest-rate outlook determining the equity market, and the key to the interest-rate outlook is the labor market.’

https://www.wsj.com/articles/global-stocks-markets-dow-update-10-07-2022-11665139154

 

Trading Signals Stock News 101022

More bad earnings to come? https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-jittery-stock-market-heads-into-earnings-season-11665258248

 

Trading Signals Stock prices 121022

What happens to Stock Prices when the Fed Pivots?

Historically – they crash by even more.?

Over the last 6 Major Recessions, Stocks Crashed an average of 28% AFTER the Fed did 1st Rate Cut.

Taking another 14 Months to get to the "Bottom". pic.twitter.com/raiUpZ9OD6

— Nick Gerli (@nickgerli1) October 11, 2022

 

Crypto Market Highlights

Trading Signals ETHUSD 131022

After a long wait on my shorts, Ethereum (ETHUSD) is finally breaking down! ?

 

Click here to receive all these signals in real-time for only $67 a month! You will get several signals a day, and even taking just 1 trade the whole month can easily cover the fee, so what are you waiting for? Trading Signals Commodity 050322 emoji

Good luck, and may next week bring more excellent profits!

0 Comments/by Spencer Li
https://synapsetrading.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/2022-09-05-18.57.18-scaled.jpg 1920 2560 Spencer Li https://synapsetrading.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/logo.jpg Spencer Li2022-10-13 22:31:512022-10-14 18:25:17Weekly Market Wrap: Market Rebound on Higher Inflation Data??!!!
Spencer Li

Weekly Market Wrap: Cashing Out Before the Market Rebound!

Market Analysis
Patungan Cavite Philippines

Last week, we saw a sharp rebound in all markets (stocks, bonds, crypto, REITs, etc), which was not unexpected given how oversold most markets were.

That is why we decided to cash out by closing all positions and taking profits. This includes my high 6-figure USD/SGD long positions.

The plan was to wait for the rebound to be over before entering all the same positions again, which happened in the later part of the week.

This week, we have already positioned ourselves for the market, and the major news of the week will be the CPI report coming out on 13 October.

No doubt September was one of our best trading months, with many traders making 10-15% profits on their portfolios, but if the market continues falling, I won’t be surprised if we exceed that record in the next 2 months.

If you want to join us in swing trading the market with 15 minutes a day, join our Daily Trading Signals Telegram channel. See you on the inside!

 

Patungan Cavite Philippines

[Photo: Patungan, Cavite, Philippines – See my full travel photo log!]

For our weekly market wrap, we go through some of the trade calls and analysis from last week, which gives us valuable insights for the week ahead.

We cover 3 main markets with a total of 200+ counters, so we will never run out of trading opportunities:

  • Forex, CFDs, commodities, bonds
  • US stocks, ETFs, global stock indices
  • Cryptocurrencies, crypto indices

By covering a broad range of markets, we can focus our attention (and capital) on whichever market currently gives the best returns.

Click here to receive all these signals in real-time for only $67 a month! You will get several signals a day, and even taking just 1 trade the whole month can easily cover the fee, so what are you waiting for? Trading Signals Commodity 050322 emoji

 

Weekly Market Outlook Video

Trading Signals Weekly market outlook 031022

Weekly Market Outlook (3 October 2022)
? Long-term bearish for stocks, crypto, REITs, commods, etc. Deeply in the money now, but closed all positions as market feels a bit too climatic.
? Credit Suisse and Deutsche Bank may face liquidity issues – will this drag down the bond and stock markets?
? Long-term bullish for USD

 

Portfolio Highlights

Trading Signals Portfolio 041022

Weekly Portfolio Update (3 October 2022)

Playing defensive this week, and waiting for better trading opportunities. Closed most positions and rotated all USD to SGD.

 

Forex & Commodities Market Highlights

Trading Signals EURUSD 061022

1.000 parity level has now become a support-turned-resistance level for the EURUSD. Will be expecting it to continue falling when USD resumes the uptrend.

 

Trading Signals USDSGD 061022

After cashing out on my USD near this cluster of pinbars, I am waiting for USDSGD to fall to the previous support level to re-enter.

I have placed some price alerts near the area, so we will know immediately when that happens. Stay tuned!

 

Trading Signals UK news 021022

https://www.wsj.com/articles/britains-financial-disaster-is-a-warning-to-the-world-11664596851

 

Stock & Bond Market Highlights

Trading Signals investor banks 031022

*A LARGE INVESTOR THAT DEALS WITH CREDIT SUISSE SAYS THE INVESTMENT BANK IS A DISASTER, CDS TRADING LIKE A 'LEHMAN MOMENT' ABOUT TO HIT – FBN#CreditSuisse ???? pic.twitter.com/UiG0FzRucA

— Investing.com (@Investingcom) October 2, 2022

 

Trading Signals Markets 051022

Why are markets so sensitive to data that would normally be regarded as merely an imprecise guide to the economy, to be taken in the context of other reports? Here are three theories:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/markets-are-stuck-in-overreaction-mode-11664894767

 

Trading Signals T bills 031022

https://www.wsj.com/articles/battered-investors-now-find-thrills-in-t-bills-11664676704

 

Trading Signals NASDAQ100 061022

After taking profit on our shorts near the exact bottom, the NASDAQ 100 (US100) is now having a dead cat bounce.

I am waiting for price action to turn bearish again so I can short. This might happen near the 50-EMA or the top of the bearish trendline.

I have placed price alerts at key levels, so we will know when the time is ripe. Stay tuned!

 

Crypto Market Highlights

Trading Signals ETHUSD 061022

Ethereum (ETHUSD) is still trading in a narrow range, but it is very near the neckline resistance and the 20-EMA.

Based on technicals alone, it is a bearish picture.

 

Click here to receive all these signals in real-time for only $67 a month! You will get several signals a day, and even taking just 1 trade the whole month can easily cover the fee, so what are you waiting for? Trading Signals Commodity 050322 emoji

Good luck, and may next week bring more excellent profits!

0 Comments/by Spencer Li
https://synapsetrading.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Patungan-Cavite-Philippines.jpg 1504 2016 Spencer Li https://synapsetrading.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/logo.jpg Spencer Li2022-10-09 19:30:242022-10-11 12:50:23Weekly Market Wrap: Cashing Out Before the Market Rebound!
Spencer Li

Weekly Market Wrap: Taking Profit on Short Positions!

Market Analysis
Deset Safari Dubai UAE

Last week, we saw the bearish trend continue for stocks, crypto and REITs, as well as the bullish trend for USD.

Since we have been holding these positions for quite a while, and they are all deeply in the money, I have decided to close these positions and take profits.

Some of these positions were also getting a bit overbought/oversold, and some were nearing support/resistance, so I thought it would be a good idea to take profits and stand aside to see if there is any rebound, where we can re-enter the market at a better price.

This month has been one of the most profitable for our portfolio, and there is a good chance that the long-term trends will continue till the end of the year.

Want to know when to re-enter the market?

Join our Daily Trading Signals Telegram channel for real-time market updates and the best trading opportunities!

 

Deset Safari Dubai UAE

[Photo: Desert Safari, Dubai, UAE – See my full travel photo log!]

For our weekly market wrap, we go through some of the trade calls and analysis from last week, which gives us valuable insights for the week ahead.

We cover 3 main markets with a total of 200+ counters, so we will never run out of trading opportunities:

  • Forex, CFDs, commodities, bonds
  • US stocks, ETFs, global stock indices
  • Cryptocurrencies, crypto indices

By covering a broad range of markets, we can focus our attention (and capital) on whichever market currently gives the best returns.

Click here to receive all these signals in real-time for only $67 a month! You will get several signals a day, and even taking just 1 trade the whole month can easily cover the fee, so what are you waiting for? Trading Signals Commodity 050322 emoji

 

Weekly Market Outlook Video

Trading Signals Weekly Market Video 240922

Weekly Market Outlook (23 September 2022)
? Rates went up by 0.75% during FOMC on 21 Sept – more rate hikes coming!
? Long-term bearish for stocks, crypto, REITs, commods, etc. Deeply in the money now, continue to add more short positions on pullbacks.
? Long-term bullish for USD

 

Portfolio Highlights

Trading Signals Portfolio 240922

Weekly Portfolio Update (23 September 2022)

Still bearish on stocks, REITs, and crypto, accumulating short positions. Almost all of cash is held in USD since it is the strongest.

Forex & Commodities Market Highlights

Trading Signals USDSGD 240922

Now that the second target for USDSGD has been hit, it might be a good idea to take profits since it is at the top of the large trading range.

 

Trading Signals USDSGD 290922

Following up on USDSGD, it has exhibited 2 bearish pin bars. Likely to have a correction soon.

 

Trading Signals GBPUSD news 240922

Parity with USD next?

https://twitter.com/thestalwart/status/1574203631456292864

 

Stock & Bond Market Highlights

Trading Signals mortgage rates 300922

https://www.wsj.com/articles/mortgage-rates-rise-to-6-7-highest-since-2007-11664460015

 

Trading Signals US100 240922
For those still short on the NASDAQ 100 (US100), might be a good idea to take some profits since prices have dropped a lot in a short period of time, and a rebound is likely.

 

Trading Signals REET 240922

The global REIT ETF (REET) is turning out to be one of my best shorts this year, and I might start to take some profits as the drop is looking a bit too climatic.

 

Trading Signals SP500 News 240922

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/goldman-sachs-cuts-2022-target-091339381.html

 

Crypto Market Highlights

Trading Signals ETHUSD 240922

Looks like a good time to take some shorts on Ethereum (ETHUSD), after prices tested the resistance level and rejected it with a pinbar.

 

 

Click here to receive all these signals in real-time for only $67 a month! You will get several signals a day, and even taking just 1 trade the whole month can easily cover the fee, so what are you waiting for? Trading Signals Commodity 050322 emoji

Good luck, and may next week bring more excellent profits!

0 Comments/by Spencer Li
https://synapsetrading.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Deset-Safari-Dubai-UAE.jpg 869 1558 Spencer Li https://synapsetrading.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/logo.jpg Spencer Li2022-09-29 14:58:542022-10-03 05:12:18Weekly Market Wrap: Taking Profit on Short Positions!
Spencer Li

What is a Crypto Blockchain 51% Attack? (Compared to 34% Attack?)

Blockchain & Crypto
Thumbnail What is a Crypto Blockchain 51 Attack

What Is a 51% Attack on a Blockchain? (And How It Is Prevented)

Last updated: 3 July 2026 · By Spencer Li, CFTe


A 51% attack happens when a single miner or group gains control of more than 50% of a blockchain’s mining power (its “hash rate”), which lets them mine faster than everyone else and rewrite recent transaction history. With that majority, an attacker can stop new transactions from confirming and double-spend their own coins (spend the same coin twice). What they cannot do is steal coins out of your wallet or reverse a transaction that is already deep in the chain. So the damage is real, but it is mostly temporary and limited to recent, unconfirmed activity.

The catch is scale. On a huge network like Bitcoin or Ethereum, buying more than half the mining power is so expensive that it is, in practice, not worth it. The real-world victims have always been smaller coins (Grin, Vertcoin, Bitcoin Gold, Ethereum Classic), where hash rate is cheap enough to rent. The two main defences are simple: keep mining power spread out so no one passes 50%, or switch the network to Proof of Stake, where an attacker has to risk their own money to misbehave.

Here is how the attack works, what it can and cannot do, the real cases, and how networks defend against it.

What is a 51% attack?

A 51% attack occurs when one party in a blockchain network controls more than 50% of its computational power. That majority lets them mine new blocks faster than the rest of the network combined.

Why does that matter? Because the chain follows the longest valid version. If you can build blocks faster than everyone else, you can produce a longer chain and force the network to accept your version of events. You can alter recent data or stop transactions from confirming without getting consensus from anyone else.

Blockchains are secure by design, but they are not perfect. There is no way to guarantee every participant is honest. On Bitcoin, miners decide which transactions go into the next block, so a miner could choose to leave out transactions that do not suit them.

For most large cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin and Ethereum, this stays theoretical. The computing power needed to out-mine an established network is impossibly large. You mostly see selfish miner behaviour in smaller skirmishes like “penny wars,” where small players spam low-value transactions to push up the per-kilobyte fee they earn. To handle this, most blockchains build in hard fork protocols that can change the rules if needed.

What can a 51% attacker actually do?

This is where most explanations overstate the danger, so let me be precise. A majority attacker can do a specific list of things, and there is an equally specific list they cannot do.

Can doCannot do
Double-spend their own coins (spend the same coin twice)Steal coins from your wallet directly
Block or delay new transactions from confirmingReverse a transaction already buried deep in the chain
Reorganise recent blocks and run an alternate historyCreate coins out of thin air or change old, settled balances
Redirect their own transactions (broadcast one, mine another)Break the network’s cryptography

So an attacker with majority hash rate can form their own consensus, run a different version of recent history, and double-spend. They can also block transactions they do not want confirmed. All of this hurts end users, because someone with majority power can bend the chain’s near-term rules in ways nobody signed up for.

This is one reason some people prefer off-chain solutions like Segregated Witness (SegWit) or the Lightning Network for everyday Bitcoin payments. Those move activity off the main chain, so they do not depend on heavy on-chain hashing to settle.

How a 51% attack disrupts the network

Most large networks, including Bitcoin and Ethereum’s original design, run on Proof of Work (PoW). Under PoW, the network aims to add a new block roughly every 10 minutes. To add one, a miner has to solve a hard mathematical puzzle, which is near-impossible without serious computing power.

In a 51% attack, the attacker uses their majority to interfere with unconfirmed blocks and transactions. That is the disruption: not stealing settled funds, but jamming and rewriting the recent edge of the chain. Users can lose access to digital assets in the short term, which understandably shakes trust in the network’s reliability.

Is the damage permanent?

Do note that the damage is usually temporary. A 51% attacker can disrupt the chain and invalidate recent transactions, but they generally cannot rewrite settled history.

Here is the part that calms people down. If you already sent Bitcoin to another person or a merchant and that transaction is buried in the chain, an attacker cannot reverse it. They can stop future transactions from confirming, and they can double-spend their own coins, but those are different things from reaching into a settled payment and undoing it. Once the attack ends, normal access to funds returns.

So even if it looks like money has vanished during an attack, it does not stay gone forever.

51% attack vs 34% attack: what is the difference?

People sometimes confuse the two, so here is the clean line between them.

34% attack51% attack
Share of mining powerLess than half, but a large minorityMore than half (majority)
What it can doTamper with the ledger to a limited degreeRun an alternate chain, double-spend, block transactions
SeverityLimitedFar more severe
Why it worksEnough power to interfereEnough power to outpace the entire main network

A 34% attacker can meddle with the ledger but cannot dominate it. A 51% attacker, with more than half the power available, can create competing versions of the chain and out-mine the main network. That is the difference between vandalism and control.

Real 51% attacks: the case file

The theory matters less than the track record. Every real attack has hit a smaller coin, because smaller coins have cheaper hash rate. Here are the four from the original post.

CoinWhat happenedNetwork response
GrinAn unknown miner took 57% of Grin’s hash power. The attacker’s intent was never clear.Grin shut off payouts, told miners to pause, then re-established the network with extra safeguards.
VertcoinAttacked several times. In one, attackers replaced genuine blocks with their own.Switched to a more robust PoW system and cut out powerful mining chips to keep mining community-based.
Bitcoin Gold (BTG)Uses Equihash and GPU mining instead of ASICs. An unknown miner took over 51% of hash rate in 2018; another attack in 2020 caused two chain reorganisations in two days, with a large sum double-spent.The community pushed for a more secure algorithm. There was suspicion that hidden ASIC devices were involved.
Ethereum Classic (ETC)Attacked three times in a single month in 2020. ETC’s decentralised PoW makes 51% attacks hard to mitigate.Prices were not badly hit, but user trust in the network fell.

Notice the common thread: privacy coins, forks, and minority networks. None of these were Bitcoin or Ethereum proper. The size of the network is itself the security.

Can a 51% attack be prevented?

Blockchain is decentralised, but it is not immune to attack. There are two practical defences.

Keep mining power spread out. The simplest protection is to make sure no single miner or pool ever holds more than 50% of total hash rate. If no one can pass the line, no one can run the attack. This is partly social and partly built into how a healthy network distributes its mining.

Use Proof of Stake (PoS) instead of Proof of Work. Under PoS, validators (not miners) produce blocks, and they have to lock up their own cryptocurrency as a stake. To attack the network, they would have to risk forfeiting that entire stake. The bigger the stake at risk, the less rational it is to misbehave. This is a large part of why Ethereum moved to Proof of Stake.

Hence, the strongest network is not the one with the cleverest cryptography. It is the one where attacking it costs more than it could ever pay, either because the hash rate is too expensive to corner, or because the attacker’s own money is on the line.

Where the human edge comes in

A scanner can tell you a coin’s hash rate is concentrated, or that its market cap is small enough to rent an attack against. That data is free now. What it will not do is supply the judgment to size your exposure to a thin, attackable network smaller than you would a blue-chip one, or to treat “cheap to attack” as a real risk rather than a footnote. The chain’s security is the easy part to look up. Pricing that security into your own position is the judgment, and judgment is the first of the Five Edges no tool can trade for you.

FAQ

What is a 51% attack in simple terms?
It is when one party controls more than half of a blockchain’s mining power and uses that majority to mine faster than everyone else, letting them rewrite recent transactions and double-spend their own coins. They cannot steal funds from your wallet or reverse settled payments.

Can Bitcoin suffer a 51% attack?
In theory, yes. In practice, no one has done it, because buying more than half of Bitcoin’s mining power would cost an impossibly large amount. The networks that have actually been attacked are much smaller coins like Grin, Vertcoin, Bitcoin Gold, and Ethereum Classic.

Is my money safe during a 51% attack?
Mostly. An attacker can block new transactions and double-spend their own coins, but they cannot reverse a payment that is already deep in the chain or steal coins out of your wallet. Once the attack ends, normal access returns.

What is the difference between a 51% attack and a 34% attack?
A 34% attacker has a large minority of mining power and can tamper with the ledger to a limited degree. A 51% attacker has the majority, which is far more severe: they can run an alternate chain, block transactions, and double-spend.

How do you prevent a 51% attack?
Keep mining power spread out so no single party passes 50%, or switch the network to Proof of Stake, where attackers must risk forfeiting their own staked cryptocurrency to misbehave.


Now that you know what a 51% attack can and cannot do, can you tell which small tokens are most exposed to one? Let me know in the comments.

And if you want the full picture of how blockchains and crypto fit together, read the pillar: The Ultimate Guide to Blockchain and Cryptocurrencies.

Want a calmer way to trade crypto and any other market? Grab the free 15-Minute Swing Trading Starter Kit. It is the exact routine I use to scan once a day and trade any market in 15 minutes.


About the author. Spencer Li is the founder of Synapse Trading and a Certified Financial Technician (CFTe) with 15+ years of trading across stocks, forex, crypto, commodities, and bonds. His trade log is public: every trade since April 2024, dated, losses left in. He has taught a 15-minute daily trading routine since 2014, one system for any market.

Education, not financial advice. Synapse Trading is not licensed by MAS to advise on investment products. Trading carries risk of loss; past performance is not indicative of future results.


Related

The Ultimate Guide to Blockchain and Cryptocurrencies (pillar) · What is Proof of Stake vs Proof of Work · What is a blockchain fork · How to value a cryptocurrency

0 Comments/by Spencer Li
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