Market analysis, insights and trading ideas on various markets and products!

Antalya Turkey

Last week, the Fed mentioned that they will be slowing down the interest rate hikes, and the market reacted positively to this news.

This was a bit different from what I was expecting, but the rule of trading is to go with the flow of the market and trade according, which means that if my positions are on the wrong side, I am ready to close them and switch sides.

As I mentioned in last week’s video, in such choppy markets, we should not be taking large positions, instead we should be saving most of our ammunition for when the trend becomes clear.

If the Fed decides to slow the rate hikes, this could hint that the market has already bottomed, but on the other hand, even keeping rates at current elevated levels for a year could trigger a recession, so which is the more likely outcome for the stock market?

I will be covering that in this week’s market outlook video, as well as the direction for all major asset classes.

Stay tuned, and see you in our Daily Trading Signals private Telegram channel!

 

Antalya Turkey

[Photo: Antalya, Turkey – See my full travel photo log!]

For our weekly market wrap, we go through some of the trade calls and analysis from last week, which gives us valuable insights for the week ahead.

We cover 3 main markets with a total of 200+ counters, so we will never run out of trading opportunities:

  • Forex, CFDs, commodities, bonds
  • US stocks, ETFs, global stock indices
  • Cryptocurrencies, crypto indices

By covering a broad range of markets, we can focus our attention (and capital) on whichever market currently gives the best returns.

Click here to receive all these signals in real-time for only $67 a month! You will get several signals a day, and even taking just 1 trade the whole month can easily cover the fee, so what are you waiting for? Trading Signals Commodity 050322 emoji

 

Weekly Market Outlook Video

Trading Signals weekly market outlook 281122

Weekly Market Outlook (27 November 2022)

NFP is this Friday, so all eyes on this data. Strong jobs might actually be bad for the market.

Unrest in China is another bearish factor for global markets.

Either stay flat, or take small short positions.

 

Portfolio Highlights

Trading Signals weekly portfolio updates 271122

Weekly Portfolio Updates (27 November 2022)

Added more US T-bills to my portfolio, since the markets are quite flat, and yields are above 4.5%.

 

Forex & Commodities Market Highlights

Trading Signals EURCAD 291122

Following up on the EURCAD, if there is follow-through on today’s strong white bar, there is a good chance of prices continuing higher.

 

Trading Signals AUDJPY 021222

AUDJPY Crossing 91.797
Euro vs Japanese Yen
Break swing low

 

Trading Signals EURAUD 301122

EURAUD Crossing 1.55769
Break swing highs!

 

Stock & Bond Market Highlights

Trading Signals US100 291122

The NASDAQ 100 (US100) still hovering at resistance, but get ready to short once it breaks the red level.

 

Trading Signals US100 301122

Finally the action is starting on the NASDAQ 100 (US100), after breaking back into the range.

Added on more short positions, but still not going all-in yet because of NFP this Friday.

 

Trading Signals Employment news 021222

This is the final monthly employment report before the Fed’s two-day meeting on Dec. 13 and 14, in which the central bank is expected to raise its fed funds target rate by a half percentage point. A 50 basis point increase would mark a slowing from the prior 75 basis point rate hikes set by the central bank.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/01/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html

 

Trading Signals SP500 news 261122

https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2022/11/the-sp-500-is-not-the-economy/

 

Trading Signals Fed news 011222

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/30/fed-chair-jerome-powell-says-smaller-rate-hikes-could-come-in-december.html

 

Crypto Market Highlights

Trading Signals BTCUSD 291122

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) still looking bearish, with prices forming a small bear flag after breaking new lows.

 

 

Click here to receive all these signals in real-time for only $67 a month! You will get several signals a day, and even taking just 1 trade the whole month can easily cover the fee, so what are you waiting for? Trading Signals Commodity 050322 emoji

Good luck, and may next week bring more excellent profits!

Cappadocia Turkey

Last week, the markets were pretty quiet, after the sharp rebound in the previous weeks.

It seems like the rebound has run out of steam, and there is no major news to influence the direction of the market either way.

The direction might only be clearer after the next major news announcement (NFP, CPI, FOMC), so it is best not to take any large bets in the meantime.

That said, on the forex and crypto front, there were many good swing trading opportunities.

There is a good chance that price might break out next week, so I have placed price triggers to alert me (and all my subscribers) the moment any breakout happens.

Stay tuned in our Daily Trading Signals private Telegram channel!

 

Cappadocia Turkey

[Photo: Cappadocia, Turkey – See my full travel photo log!]

For our weekly market wrap, we go through some of the trade calls and analysis from last week, which gives us valuable insights for the week ahead.

We cover 3 main markets with a total of 200+ counters, so we will never run out of trading opportunities:

  • Forex, CFDs, commodities, bonds
  • US stocks, ETFs, global stock indices
  • Cryptocurrencies, crypto indices

By covering a broad range of markets, we can focus our attention (and capital) on whichever market currently gives the best returns.

Click here to receive all these signals in real-time for only $67 a month! You will get several signals a day, and even taking just 1 trade the whole month can easily cover the fee, so what are you waiting for? Trading Signals Commodity 050322 emoji

 

Weekly Market Outlook Video

Trading Signals weekly market ooutlook vdeo 221122

Weekly Market Outlook (20 November 2022)

Best trades this week are shorting crypto and going long on USD rebound.

Stocks have been flat almost 2 weeks, so I have placed price alerts for when it breaks out of either side.

 

Portfolio Highlights

Trading Signals portfolio updates 221122

Weekly Portfolio Updates (20 November 2022)

Bought some long-term fixed income (TLT), and more short-term fixed income (T-bills).

 

Forex & Commodities Market Highlights

Trading Signals EURCAD 241122

Following up on EURCAD, there was a perfect long pullback opportunity as we mentioned, and prices have started heading up.

Will continue to add longs on any pullback, or pullbacks on a smaller timeframe.

 

Trading Signals NZDUSD 241122

Very strong price action for NZDUSD, after breaking out of the bearish price channel.

If it can break and stay above the 200-EMA, good chances of prices making new highs.

 

Trading Signals USDJPY 241122

With the USD weakening, we see a nice bear flag forming on the USDJPY, which will likely take prices lower to the next major support level, which coincides with the 200-EMA.

 

Trading Signals XAUUSD 231122

Gold (XAUUSD) rebounding off strong support, with 2 major resistance levels ahead that can serve as targets.

 

Stock & Bond Market Highlights

Trading Signals US100 241122

Following up on the NASDAQ 100 (US100), it is forming a small bull flag.

Currently, the price action looks bullish, so I would either stay out or take a short-term long position.

If it breaks below the price alert set at 11500, then I will look to short.

Trading Signals goldman 221122

Trading Signals SP 500 221122

S&P500: Morgan Stanley YE 2023 Price Targets

Trading Signals inflation news 251122

Once inflation breaks above 8%, they find, “reverting to 3% usually takes 6 to 20 years, with a median of over 10 years.”

Only 30% of the time in the past 52 years has inflation peaked between 8% and 10% and then gone back down. In the other 70% of the time, once it’s made it over 8% it had risen above 10%.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/history-says-inflation-could-persist-for-a-decade-11668642697

 

Good luck, and may next week bring more excellent profits!

Chong Kemin Valley Kyrgyzstan

While we saw some strong rebound in the markets due to lower inflation numbers (and hope of a pivot), I feel it is only a matter of time before the relief rally runs out of steam.

The recent news headlines do not seem bullish:

  • UK officially entering a recession
  • Japan seeing the highest inflation in 40 years
  • Many tech companies laying off large numbers of staff
  • US retail sales higher than expected (sign of inflation not coming down)
  • US initial jobless claims decreasing

Hence, the chance of a Fed pivot seems unlikely at this point.

However, the market is always right, so I will still trade based on the price action as it unfolds.

I have placed price triggers at various critical levels, so we will receive the alerts once the opportunity arises.

Join us in our Daily Trading Signals Telegram channel to receive these real-time alerts!

 

Chong Kemin Valley Kyrgyzstan

[Photo: Chong-Kemin Valley, Kyrgyzstan – See my full travel photo log!]

For our weekly market wrap, we go through some of the trade calls and analysis from last week, which gives us valuable insights for the week ahead.

We cover 3 main markets with a total of 200+ counters, so we will never run out of trading opportunities:

  • Forex, CFDs, commodities, bonds
  • US stocks, ETFs, global stock indices
  • Cryptocurrencies, crypto indices

By covering a broad range of markets, we can focus our attention (and capital) on whichever market currently gives the best returns.

Click here to receive all these signals in real-time for only $67 a month! You will get several signals a day, and even taking just 1 trade the whole month can easily cover the fee, so what are you waiting for? Trading Signals Commodity 050322 emoji

 

Weekly Market Outlook Video

Trading Signals weekly market outlook 141122

Weekly Market Outlook (13 November 2022)

After the CPI showed slowing inflation, the stock markets shot up drastically, but this does not necessarily mean a reversal of the long-term trend.

2 ways to trade this market:

1. Wait for short-term momentum to weaken and run into strong S/R levels, then enter in the direction of the LT trend

2. Ride the short/medium-term momentum by entering on pullbacks on smaller timeframe

 

Portfolio Highlights

Trading Signals Weekly portfolio 141122

Weekly Portfolio Update (13 November 2022)

Not much changes.

 

Forex & Commodities Market Highlights

Trading Signals EURCAD 151122

Very nice inverse H&S reversal for EURCAD, plus it broke the bear trendline at the same time.

Can look to go long on pullbacks.

 

Trading Signals USDSGD 141122

USDSGD has dropped quite steeply the past few weeks, and might be somewhat oversold.

Even though it is in the middle of the wider range, and might drop all the way to the bottom of the range, we can still aim to trade the rebound (red rectangle), and then use a trailing stoploss.

 

Trading Signals USDSGD 161122

Following up on USDSGD, we have seen 4 doji bars (with 1 being a bullish hammer), which suggest a slowing in the bearish momentum.

The RSI is also in the extreme oversold zone.

Odds of a rebound are high.

I would suggest taking a long position with a SL at around 1.36.

 

Stock & Bond Market Highlights

Trading Signals NADSAQ100 141122

Critical zone here for the NASDAQ 100 (US100), whether it can muster enough strength for a larger move up, and break past the trendline.

 

Trading Signals NADSAQ100 weekly 141122

To better illustrate what I meant by following the long-term trend, this is the weekly chart of the NASDAQ 100 (US100).

You can see that when prices go up or down, there will be moves against the main trend (red circles) that range from 15-25%.

The key is to wait patiently and find the optimal point (most reward and lowest risk) to enter the market and ride the long-term trend.

 

Trading Signals NADSAQ100 171122

So far we have seen one shooting star (bearish pinbar) on the NASDAQ 100 (US100), when it tried to break above the trendline.

Now, it is at a crucial point because it is at the top of the LT bearish trendline, but the ST price action recently just broke above the small consolidation (yellow rectangle).

If prices fall back into the small consolidation (break the red line), then i would consider adding back my short positions.

 

Trading Signals REET 141122

Similar situation for the Global REITs ETF (REET) which is a benchmark for global real estate.

 

Trading Signals amazon layoff 121122

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/14/amazon-reportedly-plans-to-lay-off-about-10000-employees-starting-this-week.html

 

Trading Signals inflation cooldown news 111122

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-inflation-cooldown-is-finally-here-11668097915

 

Crypto Market Highlights

Trading Signals ftx hacked 121122

https://www.coindesk.com/business/2022/11/12/ftx-crypto-wallets-see-mysterious-late-night-outflows-totalling-more-than-380m

 

 

Click here to receive all these signals in real-time for only $67 a month! You will get several signals a day, and even taking just 1 trade the whole month can easily cover the fee, so what are you waiting for? Trading Signals Commodity 050322 emoji

Good luck, and may next week bring more excellent profits!

2022 09 11 21 36 37

This week was a crazy week, which saw the collapse of FTX, one of the largest crypto brokerages.

This will likely have more domino-effect impact on various crypto markets in the weeks to come, and not in a good way.

On the plus side, the recent CPI data shows a slowing of inflation, which caused stock markets to spike and the USD to plunge.

Is this sufficient for a Fed pivot (or at least a slow in rate hikes), which could hint at a market bottom?

Find out in my “weekly market outlook” video tomorrow, which I will post in my Daily Trading Signals private Telegram channel!

 

2022 09 11 21 36 37

[Photo: Dushanbe, Tajikistan – See my full travel photo log!]

For our weekly market wrap, we go through some of the trade calls and analysis from last week, which gives us valuable insights for the week ahead.

We cover 3 main markets with a total of 200+ counters, so we will never run out of trading opportunities:

  • Forex, CFDs, commodities, bonds
  • US stocks, ETFs, global stock indices
  • Cryptocurrencies, crypto indices

By covering a broad range of markets, we can focus our attention (and capital) on whichever market currently gives the best returns.

Click here to receive all these signals in real-time for only $67 a month! You will get several signals a day, and even taking just 1 trade the whole month can easily cover the fee, so what are you waiting for? Trading Signals Commodity 050322 emoji

 

Weekly Market Outlook Video

Trading Signals weekly market outlook 091122

Weekly Market Outlook (07 November 2022)

CPI data on 10 Nov is expected to be the main market mover this week, best not to take any major positions ahead of this news.

 

Portfolio Highlights

Trading Signals Weekly Portfolio 081122

Weekly Portfolio Update (07 November 2022)

Largest position is now short-term T-bills, which are giving 4+% risk-free returns.

 

Forex & Commodities Market Highlights

Trading Signals USDSGD 081122

USDSGD Crossing 1.40143
Break swing low

 

Trading Signals WTICOUSD 101122

WTICOUSD Crossing 85.061
Crude Oil
Break swing low

 

Stock & Bond Market Highlights

Trading Signals ARKK 121122

ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) which represents high growth tech stocks broke new lows yesterday, putting it now at a major support level.

IF this level breaks, it will be hitting lows last seen in 2017. Not looking good.

 

Trading Signals Chinatech stocks 071122

Rebound on China tech stocks (3067) has happened as predicted! Congrats to those who followed, it was a quick 10-15% profit over a few days! 🔥💪🏻💰

 

Trading Signals inflation news 121122

BREAKING!

US headline #inflation fell to 7.7% in October, 7.9% expected.

US core #CPI fell to 6.3%, 6.5% expected.

Rally coming!

 

Trading Signals Layoff news 051122

Layoffs announced in the last day:
– Lyft 13% of workers
– Opendoor 18%
– Stripe 14%
– Chime 12%
– Twitter 50%
– Morgan Stanley (% unknown)

—-

Delivery Hero is laying off as we speak. Don’t have numbers yet. Also, Pleo (expense management) let go 15% of staff.

Lyft, Stripe, CloudKitchens all doing layoffs today. OpenDoor, Chime, Dapper Labs, Gem, MessageBird, Kry this week.

Source: Twitter (GergelyOrosz, GRDecter)

 

Trading Signals treasury yields news 051122

Compared to a month ago, the expected peak interest rate has gone up, but the duration to the peak has shifted from 2.5yrs to 1yr.

This suggests they are expecting the Fed to aggressively hike so the peak can be reached faster, but the peak keeps getting higher.

 

Crypto Market Highlights

Trading Signals crypto BTCUSD ETHUSD 101122

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) and Ethereum (ETHUSD) having huge selldowns after the FTX fiasco.

There is likely a lot more selling/iquidations/margin calls coming up, so it is better not to try and catch the falling knife at this point.

 

Trading Signals binance deal breaks 101122

https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/ftx-turmoil-causes-crypto-concern-sending-token-prices-sliding-2022-11-09/

 

Trading Signals bankless FTX 101122

Summary of the whole saga: https://newsletter.banklesshq.com/p/the-shocking-collapse-of-the-ftx

 

 

Click here to receive all these signals in real-time for only $67 a month! You will get several signals a day, and even taking just 1 trade the whole month can easily cover the fee, so what are you waiting for? Trading Signals Commodity 050322 emoji

Good luck, and may next week bring more excellent profits!

Jokulsarlon Glacier Lagoon Iceland

We had 2 major pieces of new last week, which was the FOMC and the NFP.

The FOMC hiked rates by 0.75%, which was in line with expectations, but they also maintained the hardline stance of aggressively increasing rates till inflation is tamed, and would rather overshoot than undershoot, because (they think) they can remedy by cutting rates if a recession happens.

The NFP data showed that although jobs increased, it seems to be reaching a gradual turning point, which suggested that the rate hikes are working to reverse the trend.

As mentioned in last week’s video, I expect the bearish trend to resume soon, with new lows perhaps as early as next week.

Besides the short position on stocks, there is also something which we have been accumulating steadily, and is now deeply in the money, with lots more room to continue going up.

What do you think this is?

Find out in our Daily Trading Signals private Telegram channel!

 

Jokulsarlon Glacier Lagoon Iceland

[Photo: Jokulsarlon Glacier Lagoon, Iceland – See my full travel photo log!]

For our weekly market wrap, we go through some of the trade calls and analysis from last week, which gives us valuable insights for the week ahead.

We cover 3 main markets with a total of 200+ counters, so we will never run out of trading opportunities:

  • Forex, CFDs, commodities, bonds
  • US stocks, ETFs, global stock indices
  • Cryptocurrencies, crypto indices

By covering a broad range of markets, we can focus our attention (and capital) on whichever market currently gives the best returns.

Click here to receive all these signals in real-time for only $67 a month! You will get several signals a day, and even taking just 1 trade the whole month can easily cover the fee, so what are you waiting for? Trading Signals Commodity 050322 emoji

 

Weekly Market Outlook Video

Trading Signals Weekly Market Outlook 301022

Weekly Market Outlook (31 October 2022)
📌 2 Nov: FOMC interest-rate decision
📌 4 Nov: October NFP jobs report
📌 8 Nov: mid-term elections
📌 10 Nov: CPI (inflation data)

 

Portfolio Highlights

Trading Signals Weekly portfolio 301022

Weekly Portfolio Update (31 October 2022)

Increased fixed income (bonds) allocation slightly, went net positive on crypto allocation.

 

Forex & Commodities Market Highlights

Trading Signals forex pairs 301022

Comparison of all major forex pairs YTD

(Note that I have put the USD as the numerator for all pairs to enable easy comparison.)

USD is the strongest currency, followed by SGD, CAD and CHF.

JPY is the weakest currency by a large margin.

 

Trading Signals AUDNZD 041122

The AUDNZD has traded in a wide range for many years. Recently, it tried to break out of the range but failed and went back down.

It might head back to test the bottom of the range, so we can look to short on pullbacks.

 

Trading Signals AUDUSD 301022

AUDUSD is having a bullish rebound, you can either take a short-term trade to the red zone, or wait for price to reach there for a shorting opportunity.

 

Trading Signals DXY 301022

Entry zone for long positions on the US Dollar Index (DXY), with a SL below.

 

Trading Signals EURUSD 301022

EURUSD is consolidating near the major 1.000 level, which is now resistance. The red zone would be a good shorting opportunity, with a SL around 1.0100.

 

Trading Signals USDSGD 031122

After yesterday’s FOMC, where we saw the USDSGD spike down, but shortly after recovered and went back up.

As mentioned in the last video, that’s a strong sign that the price action remains bullish, and will likely test new highs.

 

Stock & Bond Market Highlights

Trading Signals major markets 301022

Comparison of all major markets YTD

Most markets are down for the year, the only 2 which are positive are the US Dollar Index (DXY) and the general Commodity Index (GCC).

 

Trading Signals China Tech stocks 301022

Climatic selling on China tech stocks (3067) suggests a possible rebound, which would bring prices back to test the prior resistance.

 

Trading Signals US100 041122

The NASDAQ 100 (US100) is coming back down after the Fed signalled that they will continue with future rate hikes.

 

Trading Signals FOMC 041122

New sentence in the FOMC statement signals more increases but hints at possibly smaller increments.

 

Trading Signals hike 031122

 

Trading Signals SP500 news 021122

 

Trading Signals apple 041122

 

Crypto Market Highlights

Trading Signals ETHUSD 291022

Bull flag forming on Ethereum (ETHUSD) on smaller timeframe. Taking a small long position to see how it goes. Can put a SL around $1450 area.

 

 

Click here to receive all these signals in real-time for only $67 a month! You will get several signals a day, and even taking just 1 trade the whole month can easily cover the fee, so what are you waiting for? Trading Signals Commodity 050322 emoji

Good luck, and may next week bring more excellent profits!