https://i2.wp.com/synapsetrading.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/weekly-market-analysis-1.png?fit=1021%2C528&ssl=15281021Spencer Lihttps://synapsetrading.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/logo.jpgSpencer Li2020-06-18 07:46:432020-06-18 07:50:01Weekly Market Analysis - Can the Economy Get Back on Track?
By this time, most people are also starting to believe in the V-shape recovery, and the Nasdaq has already fully recovered from the crisis, surpassing its highs before the Covid crash.
Will the tech stocks be able to lift the rest of the market to new highs, or will the general market drag down the tech giants as the reality of the economy kicks in?
Last month, the USD was very strong, while the AUD was one of the weakest, however this month we have started to see a twist of events, where the AUDCAD is in a strong bull, while the USD/CHF is in a strong bear.
Gold has declined slightly, putting it in weak bear territory.
Nasdaq (NASUSD) remains the strongest stock market, whereas Hang Seng (H33HKD) remains the weakest.
Major Events
The biggest news of the week is probably the awesome jobs data from the US, although there was some classification error.
Stock Markets
The stock markets continued to rise, and as I posted in the case study below, since the tech stocks have gone up so much relative to the rest of the market, I was expecting the rest of the market to play catch up, and on Friday we saw the Dow Jones & S&P 500 outperforming the Nasdaq as anticipated.
Weekly Trade Highlights
Here are some highlights and case studies of trades done on forex, commodities and CFD products, also taken from our private forum.
The first is a trade we did on the USD/CAD, as it broke down from a descending triangle.
Next, we also had a good run on Crude Oil, riding on the surge in prices as economies reopened.
Trading Insights
Join our Last & Final Skillsfuture Workshop!
2 weekends ago, we conducted another full-house Skillsfuture workshop, with 40 pax of new traders & investors, as well as some of my past students who sat in to help out.
So far, every intake has been a full house, which is why we expanded to 3 workshops instead of 1 originally planned, because of the overflow. But our license expires on 18 June, so this is the last and final workshop which we can hold.
This fully subsidised Skillsfuture workshop will give you the skills and roadmap to build a second source of income to plan for early financial freedom, by building an all-weather portfolio that can perform well in any market conditions, and also market timing skills to create additional cashflow from short/medium-term trades.
https://i2.wp.com/synapsetrading.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/weekly-market-analysis-1.png?fit=1021%2C528&ssl=15281021Spencer Lihttps://synapsetrading.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/logo.jpgSpencer Li2020-06-08 03:05:482020-06-08 03:10:06Weekly Market Analysis - Is the V Shape Recovery for Real?
Some people have been thinking that nothing can bring the stock market down, because it has been steadily chugging up despite all the negative news of virus, lockdowns, unemployment, trade wars, and now riots.
So can the market continue to climb up forever? What will it take to actually bring the market down?
The strong bullish trending markets are Gold (XAU/USD), Nasdaq (NASUSD), and the US 10-year T-Note Futures (TNOTEUSD), which have been trending for quite a while, and our positions there have remained largely unchanged.
The most bearish market is the Hang Seng (H33HKD), which is not surprisingly since China is planning to enact more stringent national security laws, which will likely negatively impact Hong Kong’s financial markets.
Major Events
This has been a very eventful year so far, with the virus outbreaks, quarantines, job market crashing, and now the slow re-opening of the economy.
Amidst all that, the amazing thing is that the stock market is recovering much faster than the economy.
And now, tensions between US and China are stepping up, with China’s latest actions on HK and corresponding US retaliation, adding to the accusations of China covering up the virus at the start of the outbreak.
And in the US, we are seeing riots and looting, after a white cop killed a black guy in broad daylight during arrest.
US Stock Markets
The US stock market, especially the NASDAQ, has been on steroids, thanks to the dominance of tech stocks.
In my private forum with my students, I shared a detailed analysis of the S&P 500.
Weekly Trade Highlights
Here are some highlights and case studies of trades done on forex, commodities and CFD products, also taken from our private forum.
Join our Last & Final Skillsfuture Workshop!
Last weekend, we conducted another full-house Skillsfuture workshop, with 40 pax of new traders & investors, as well as some of my past students who sat in to help out.
So far, every intake has been a full house, which is why we expanded to 3 workshops instead of 1 originally planned, because of the overflow. But our license expires on 18 June, so this is the last and final workshop which we can hold.
This fully subsidised Skillsfuture workshop will give you the skills and roadmap to build a second source of income to plan for early financial freedom, by building an all-weather portfolio that can perform well in any market conditions, and also market timing skills to create additional cashflow from short/medium-term trades.
P.S. According to Skillsfuture regulations, the maximum intake is capped at 40 slots, so we will not be able to add new slots once all are filled up. Register early to avoid disappointment!
P.P.S. Your slot is only confirmed after you have completed payment, submitted your claims, and forwarded the confirmation screenshot to the organiser. If you did not complete the last step, your slot is still up for grabs to the next person who completes it.
There are only a few products that are trending strongly, while most markets are in a sideways range.
This means that we should be expecting to take shorter trades (lower RR), or go down to smaller timeframes to pinpoint entries and exits.
The 200-Day Moving Average
Traditionally, the 200-day moving average serves as a good gauge of the market’s long-term trend.
If prices are above the 200-day moving average, then it is bullish, and if prices are below the 200-day moving average, then it is bearish.
Now, we see the S&P 500 poised exactly at the 200-day moving average.
Will it be able to clear the hurdle?
New Highs or New Lows?
Recently, I did a market poll on my Telegram channel (check it out if you want to take part, or see the latest results), and the results are as follows:
Interestingly, about 40% are bullish, compared to 30% who are bearish, but the difference is not much.
And if you look at it another way, about 60% think that the market won’t be making new highs (new lows or sideways).
Here are some bullish and bearish catalysts I could think of:
Tensions Between HK, USA & China
One major issue that could dictate market movements in the coming weeks is new national security laws which China plans to impose on HK, and how the US is going to react.
Relations between the US and China are already strained because of trade and the Covid virus, and this could become a proxy battle.
Join our Last 2 Skillsfuture Workshops!
Last weekend, we conducted another full-house Skillsfuture workshop, with 40 pax of new traders & investors, as well as some of my past students who sat in to help out.
There were so many sign-ups that we had to turn some people away, and ask them to join the next intake on 30 & 31 May. Although the next class is still 2 weeks away, it is already almost full, so before my license expires on 18 June, I will open one final class on 13 & 14 June to accommodate this influx of demand.
This fully subsidised Skillsfuture workshop will give you the skills and roadmap to build a second source of income to plan for early financial freedom, by building an all-weather portfolio that can perform well in any market conditions, and also market timing skills to create additional cashflow from short/medium-term trades.
Dates: 30 & 31 May 2020 (6pm to 10pm) 13 & 14 June 2020 (6pm to 10pm)
P.S. According to Skillsfuture regulations, the maximum intake is capped at 40 slots, so we will not be able to add new slots once all are filled up. Register early to avoid disappointment!
P.P.S. Your slot is only confirmed after you have completed payment and submitted the confirmation to the organiser. If you registered but did not complete payment & submission, your slot is still up for grabs to the next person who completes it.
https://i2.wp.com/synapsetrading.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/weekly-market-analysis-1.png?fit=1021%2C528&ssl=15281021Spencer Lihttps://synapsetrading.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/logo.jpgSpencer Li2020-05-25 22:38:482020-05-25 22:43:14Weekly Market Analysis - S&P 500 at the 200-Day Moving Average
As tech stocks continue to surge, while the S&P 500 and the general economy lags behind, it is important to select the right sectors and stocks to invest in.
Also, as the US gradually opens its economy and talks of a new potential vaccine surfaces, will these be able to boost the V-shaped recovery of the stock market?
And more importantly, which specific stocks are the best to invest in?
While most of the markets are sideways or in weak trends, we see that a few things continue to remain strong, such as Gold, the US dollar, and the NASDAQ.
Upcoming News for the Week
How is the Economy Faring?
There seems to be a large disparity between various sectors, and last week several famous fund manager like David Tepper and Stanly Druckenmiller said that they feel the market is too expensive at current levels.
Some good news on the virus front, with a potential vaccine being found. It might still take months before we see an end product, but at least this gives us some hope.
As the US gradually reopens its economy, so far we have not seem any sharp spike in cases, so that is a good sign. However, since there is a delay between infections and testing, only time will tell.
Is Gold Starting a New Super Trend?
We have been getting some solid buy signals for Gold, and the charts show that it has potential to break new highs.
NASDAQ vs. S&P 500
There is a curious divergence on the NASDAQ versus the S&P 500, which is due to the fact that tech stocks have fared much better and recovered faster than the rest of the economy.
Since this divergence could persist or even widen, it makes sense that we should continue focusing our investments in tech counters.
Since my visit to Silicon Valley and various offices there in 2018, I have been very bullish on the tech sector.
Choosing the Right Sectors to Invest In
Looking at where the big money is flowing, Warren Buffett is selling off the airlines and financial stocks, while the Saudi sovereign fund is buying up huge chunks of US stocks.
Best Tech Stocks to Invest In
Here is the shopping list of my favourite tech stocks, which I plan to buy and hold for the long-term.
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