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Spencer Li

The 47/2 Problem: Why AI Trading Tools Make Picking Trades Harder

Trading Psychology
47 circles, 45 grey and 2 red: of 47 setups an AI tool finds, a trader takes 2. Card for the post The 47/2 Problem.

Why AI trading tools make picking trades harder, and how to get better at saying no

Published: 28 October 2026 · By Spencer Li, CFTe


In March 2026, a trader on Reddit started a weekly diary called “Prompting my way into profitability with AI”. I understand the hope behind that title. If a machine can read every chart in the market overnight, surely the hard part of trading is done?

The trouble is that finding setups has always been the easy part of trading.

Not long ago, a proper scan took a whole evening. You flipped through charts one at a time, and by the time you had found 5 decent setups you were tired enough to take only 1 of them. The tiredness did some of the filtering for you. (Nobody teaches that as a method, though it probably worked better than it had any right to.)

Today the same scan takes seconds. Ask an AI tool for swing setups in US stocks and it will hand you 47 of them, each with a tidy paragraph on why it looks good. So the scarce skill has flipped. It used to be finding a trade, and now it is turning down the 45 that look almost as good as the 2 worth taking.

I call this the 47/2 problem. The edge sits in the 45 noes.

Why does more choice make it harder?

So you might be thinking, surely more options is better? More fish in the net means more chances of a good one.

Well, a trading account works differently from a fishing net. Every setup on the screen asks you for a decision, and every one of them now arrives with a reason attached. That second part is new. A scanner from 10 years ago gave you a list of tickers, while an AI tool gives you the list plus 47 well-written arguments for buying, and it writes a weak argument just as fluently as a strong one.

Try it once. Look at 30 setups in a row and notice what happens to your standards by number 25. The reasons start to sound alike, the bar drops a little with each chart, and somewhere near the end of the list a trade you would have skipped on Monday morning starts to look fine.

There is a second problem, and it is quieter. If the tool is cheap and everyone has it, the same 47 setups are sitting on thousands of screens at once. A breakout that every scanner flagged the night before can be a crowded trade a minute after the open. Hence, the 2 you take need a reason the crowd doesn’t have, and the crowd has the same scan you do.

What does a good “no” look like?

A no needs a name. An unnamed no is a mood, and moods change by lunchtime.

Here is a simple lens. It follows the order I check a trade in, and almost every rejection lands in one of 4 buckets:

  • Regime. The overall market is moving against the trade. A perfect long setup in a falling market is still swimming against the tide.
  • Trend. The stock is on the wrong side of its 200-day EMA (a moving average of the last 200 daily closes that gives more weight to recent days, and a rough line between an uptrend and a downtrend).
  • Shape. It is not one of the few setups you actually trade. It looks interesting, which is a long way from being yours.
  • Stop. There is no clean place to put the stop-loss, or the stop sits so far away that the position becomes too small to matter.

Most of the 45 fail one of these in under a minute. The real payoff comes later, once you have counted them. Keep a tally for a month and you will learn which bucket does most of your filtering, and which one you keep overriding when you are bored and the market is quiet.

What should the AI do, then?

To be fair to the diary, the scan really is better now, as at October 2026. A machine reads more charts in a minute than I can in a month, it doesn’t get tired, and it doesn’t fall in love with a ticker because it made money on it last year.

So it makes sense to use it for what it is good at, which is widening the net. Then it can work the other side as well. One prompt worth trying is the case against: give it the setup and ask for the strongest reason to skip it. A tool that writes a convincing yes will write an equally convincing no, and seeing the two side by side is a quick lesson in how much of that fluency is decoration.

The judgment still has to come from you. The tool can recite the 4 buckets, but it has no money in the trade, and it won’t be the one watching the screen when the stop gets hit.

For what it’s worth, my own published log holds 484 closed trades, losses included. 51% of them won, and the average win was about 3.1 times the average loss. That is close to a coin-flip hit rate. The edge sits in which trades get through.

The skill that is left

The skill is rejection, done on purpose and with names. A trader who looks at 47 setups and takes 2 has done far more work than one who looks at 5 and takes all 5, even though the second one looks busier, and probably feels busier too.

How many setups did you look at last week? How many did you take? And could you name the reason you said no to each of the rest?


About the author. Spencer Li is The 15-Minute Trader and the founder of Synapse Trading. He is a Certified Financial Technician (CFTe) with 15+ years of trading, run from 70+ countries. He holds a B.Acc and B.BM from SMU. Every trade he takes is public, dated, losses left in. He teaches rules-based swing trading in 15 minutes a day, one system for any market.

Educational content only, not personalised financial advice. Trading carries risk, including loss of capital. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Synapse Trading is not licensed or regulated by MAS.

by Spencer Li
https://synapsetrading.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/ai-trading-tools-47-2-problem-card.webp 630 1200 Spencer Li https://synapsetrading.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/synapse-logo-horizontal-light.png Spencer Li2026-10-28 19:30:002026-10-27 17:00:11The 47/2 Problem: Why AI Trading Tools Make Picking Trades Harder
Spencer Li

The Disciplined Trader Summary: Why Discipline Is a Skill You Can Learn

Trading Foundations
Summary card for the post: The Disciplined Trader Summary: Why Discipline Is a Skill You Can Learn

Mark Douglas’s first book: the trap that turns traders into passive losers, his two rules for losses, and the seven steps to trading without fear

Published: 26 October 2026 · By Spencer Li, CFTe


What is The Disciplined Trader about? Mark Douglas’s 1990 book argues that self-discipline is a skill you learn, rather than a trait you are born with. He calls it “a specific thought methodology, a mental resource.”

A gambling game ends on its own and caps your loss at the bet. A trade does neither, so a trader who freezes keeps losing without lifting a finger. Fear makes it worse, because it narrows what you can see. Douglas’s answer is a programme of seven steps, built on two rules: define the loss before you enter, and take it the moment it shows up. Thinking in probabilities, the idea he is best known for, only arrives at step five.

Mark Douglas: self-discipline is a way of thinking you can practise, not a trait you are born with. Summary card for the post: The Disciplined Trader Summary: Why Discipline Is a Skill You Can Learn.

Who is Mark Douglas?

Douglas was selling commercial insurance outside Detroit when he moved to Chicago in June 1981 to trade. He joined Merrill Lynch Commodities at the Chicago Board of Trade, “its second largest commodity office, with 38 account executives.” By his count, the typical customer there “lost his original stake within an average of four months.”

He had wiped out his trading account twice before the move. By March 1982 he had filed for bankruptcy, “a mere eight months after moving to Chicago.”

By June 1982 he was making steady money for his customers, and that summer he started this book. His summary of how losing traders turn it around: “the markets didn’t change, the tools that were used didn’t change, the trader did.” He founded Trading Behavior Dynamics in 1983. Trading in the Zone followed in 2000.

I first read Douglas around 2008, while at university, and The Disciplined Trader was the book.

How is it different from Trading in the Zone?

Our Trading in the Zone summary covers the five fundamental truths and the 20-trade exercise. Neither is in this book. The earlier book covers three things the sequel mostly leaves out.

  • How a belief changes, with writing drills to drain the old one.
  • How price moves, with support and resistance as traders’ beliefs.
  • The order of learning, with probabilities fifth.

A trader on Reddit asked this year for psychology books that “actually improved your discipline,” and named both. They pair well. Trading in the Zone is about the market. The Disciplined Trader is about you.

What are the 10 key ideas at a glance?

#The ideaWhat it means for your trading
1Discipline is learnedA way of thinking you can practise
2The market is always rightArguing with price costs money
3You can be a passive loserDoing nothing keeps a losing trade open
4Fear narrows what you seeIt is why traders take small profits and sit on big losses
5Predefine every lossBefore entry, decide what proves the trade wrong
6Take the loss at onceWhen that point prints, you act
7Rules come before moneyProfit from broken rules goes back to the market
8Master one pattern firstLearn one setup well before you add more
9Probabilities come fifthThink in odds once your rules are a habit
10Price levels are beliefsSupport and resistance hold because traders remember them

Why does the market turn traders into passive losers?

This is the book’s most original argument, and it starts with gambling. Take a hand of blackjack. You choose to play and bet before the cards come out. The hand ends by the rules, and you can lose only the chips on the table.

A trade removes every one of those guard rails. Douglas puts it plainly: “Once you put on a trade, you have to actively participate to end your losses. You don’t need to do anything to continue to lose.”

That is the real job of a stop loss. It puts back the rule the casino gave you for free.

One unplanned loss then sets up the next mistake. Say you meant to risk 5 ticks and lost 20. That is a 4R loss (R is the amount you planned to risk). Now a 10-tick winner shows up, worth 2R. If you are trying to win back the last trade, Douglas says, “You will need at least 15 and preferably 20 to make you whole.” So you hold on too long. Revenge “only allows you to get back at yourself.”

Why does fear make you cut winners and run losers?

It is easy to scold yourself for this. Douglas explains it. Fear pins your attention on whatever feels threatening, or safe, and the rest drops out of view.

In a losing trade, the scared trader watches the comforting signs and waits for break-even. In a winning trade, he watches only what he could lose, so he grabs a small profit. Douglas calls this “an example of why the vast majority of traders cut their profits short and let their losses run.”

The key line: “Fear causes us to act without a perception of choice.” If you cannot see that you are wrong, you cannot choose to cut the loss. So his cure is rules you trust yourself to follow.

What are the seven steps to success?

Chapter 16 is the practical core. “Self-discipline is simply a mental technique to stay focused on what you need to learn, or do, to accomplish your goals,” Douglas writes. The seven steps are what to stay focused on.

  1. Stay focused on what you need to learn. Set aside some capital “as tuition for your education.”
  2. Deal with losses. His two trading rules live here.
  3. Become an expert at one market behaviour. “More is not better,” he warns.
  4. Learn to execute a trading system flawlessly. Take every signal, exits included.
  5. Learn to think in probabilities. Trade with whichever side is winning, buyers or sellers.
  6. Learn to be objective. Make “uncommitted assessments of the probabilities.”
  7. Learn to monitor yourself. In a trade, keep asking whether anything “has to happen.”

What are Douglas’s two rules for losses?

Step two holds the only two numbered rules in the book.

Trading Rule 1: “Predefine what a loss is in every potential trade.”

Trading Rule 2: “Execute your losing trades immediately upon perception that they exist.”

To predefine a loss, ask one question before entry: “For this trade to be valid or continue to be valid, the market shouldn’t trade to what point?” If the distance to that point is more than you can stand to lose, then “don’t take the trade regardless of how much potential you think it might have.”

The self-check: “If you find yourself considering, weighing, or judging,” you have skipped a rule.

Why do traders abandon systems that work?

Because they want certainty. Traders see themselves as risk takers, Douglas writes, “but what they really want is a guaranteed outcome with some momentary suspense.”

Then comes his most useful number. “Rarely will the typical trader stay with his system beyond two or three losses in a row,” he notes, yet a streak like that “is a very common occurrence for most trading systems.” Run the sum. At 1% risk a trade, three losses in a row cost about 3%. That is routine for a system, and it is still where most traders walk away.

His drill: buy a simple system, so you are not tempted to tinker. Trade it with your tuition money, “keep your contract size light,” and take every signal until the rules feel like habit.

His bottom line is worth printing out: “As a trader it is more important to know that you will always follow your rules than it is to make money, because whatever money you make, you will inevitably lose back to the market if you can’t follow your rules.”

Want rules to practise on? Our free 15-Minute Swing Trader’s Checklist has them. The sign-up box is at the end of this post.

What does the book say about support and resistance?

Chapter 15 turns from the trader to the market. Douglas treats price levels as shared memories. A level holds because enough traders remember the market turned there, and act on it. “All beliefs eventually become self-fulfilling prophecies,” he writes.

That is why old resistance becomes support. Traders who sold there and got burned will not sell there again, and those still short buy back near break-even. Our post on when resistance becomes support shows the flip on a chart.

Where the human edge comes in

A platform can scan for your setup and place the stop. It cannot make you leave that stop alone, or take the fourth signal after three losses. That gap is this book’s subject.

Douglas sums it up in one line: “It isn’t you against the markets, it’s just you.” Discipline is the second of the Five Edges no scanner can trade for you, and The Disciplined Trader is a manual for building it.

What are the book’s weak spots?

Douglas is upfront about the first one: “I do not offer a trading system in this book.” Read it alongside a method that gives you an edge.

Chapter 9 describes memories as energy moving at the speed of light. None of the later rules depend on it, so you can skim it. The worked trades come from the 1990 bond pit, so take the reasoning and leave the numbers. As Douglas says, “Each circumstance will be different.”

When should you read The Disciplined Trader?

After some live trades. As I wrote in my reading list, “Read the psychology books last, because they only make sense once you have felt the emotions they describe.” This book sits in that list’s psychology section. Come to it when you keep breaking rules you already believe in. For the rest of the shelf, see the best investing and trading books of all time.

Concluding thoughts

The Disciplined Trader will not hand you a setup. It explains why you break the rules of the one you have. The passive-loser argument alone makes it worth reading.

So here is Douglas’s test for your next trade. Before you enter, can you name the price where the trade stops being valid, and would you take that loss without a second thought?

FAQ

What is the main idea of The Disciplined Trader?

That self-discipline is a mental skill you can learn, through a seven-step programme.

What are Mark Douglas’s two trading rules?

Predefine what a loss is in every potential trade, and execute your losing trades immediately upon perception that they exist. Both sit in Step Two, “Dealing with Losses.”

What is a passive loser in trading?

It is Douglas’s term for a trader who sits in a losing position and does nothing. A gambling game ends on its own and caps the loss at the bet. A trade stays open until you close it.

Go deeper

Douglas tells you to define every loss before you enter. The free 15-Minute Swing Trader’s Checklist builds that into a daily routine: the scan, the questions to ask before you enter, and the five rules that keep you in the game. Sign up in the box below this post.

More reading:

  • The complete guide to trading psychology
  • The law of large numbers in trading
  • Surviving Myself: What I Learnt in 15+ Years of Trading
  • Our summary of Trading for a Living

About the author. Spencer Li is The 15-Minute Trader and the founder of Synapse Trading. He is a Certified Financial Technician (CFTe) with 15+ years of trading, run from 70+ countries. He holds a B.Acc and B.BM from SMU. Every trade he takes is public, dated, losses left in. He teaches rules-based swing trading in 15 minutes a day, one system for any market.

Educational content only, not personalised financial advice. Trading carries risk, including loss of capital. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Synapse Trading is not licensed or regulated by MAS.

by Spencer Li
https://synapsetrading.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/the-disciplined-trader-summary-card.webp 630 1200 Spencer Li https://synapsetrading.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/synapse-logo-horizontal-light.png Spencer Li2026-10-26 09:00:002026-10-27 17:02:25The Disciplined Trader Summary: Why Discipline Is a Skill You Can Learn
Spencer Li

Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques Summary: Steve Nison’s Patterns and the Rule Behind Them

Trading Foundations
Summary card for the post: Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques Summary: Steve Nison's Patterns and the Rule Behind Them

The key patterns from the 1991 book that brought candlesticks west, what each one really signals, and the confluence rule that makes them worth trading

Published: 24 October 2026 · By Spencer Li, CFTe


What is Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques about? Steve Nison’s 1991 book teaches you to read the candlestick chart. Part 1 is a dictionary of patterns: the hammer, the engulfing pattern, the stars, the doji and the windows. Part 2 is the method. A candle signal, Nison argues, gets far stronger when other tools point to the same price.

He is honest about the limits too. Candles give no price targets, and in his words they “will not provide an infallible trading tool.” This summary covers the patterns, the rule behind them, and how to use both in 15 minutes a day.

Steve Nison's book on reading the candlestick chart: a dictionary of patterns, then the method. Summary card for the post: Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques Summary: Steve Nison's Patterns and the Rule Behind Them.

Who is Steve Nison?

Nison came from the futures markets, and his route into candles started with one word. In 1987 he got to know a Japanese broker. One day in her office she was looking through a Japanese chart book, and she said, “look, a window.” A window, she told him, was the Japanese name for a gap. Then she used words like “doji” and “dark-cloud cover”, and as he put it, “I was hooked.”

The first English booklet he found had just ten pages on candles, so he spent years drawing the charts himself. This book, published in 1991 by the New York Institute of Finance, is the result.

What is the overview of the book?

The book opens in old Osaka, where the rice trade grew into a futures market. Nison writes that the Dojima Rice Exchange’s rice receipts “became the first futures contracts ever traded.” In 1749, Osaka traded 110,000 bales of rice coupons, while all of Japan held only 30,000 bales of actual rice. That is more than 3 bales of paper per real one, a lot of rice nobody could eat.

Then Part 1 builds the candle and its patterns, and Part 2 pairs them with Western tools such as trendlines, moving averages and oscillators.

How do you read a candlestick?

A candle uses the same four prices as a bar chart. The thick real body spans the open to the close, white when the close is higher and black when it is lower. The thin shadows mark the high and the low.

So why make the body the main character? The Japanese, Nison says, “place great emphasis on the relationship between the open and close because they are the two most emotionally charged points of the trading day.” A long white body tells you the buyers ran the session. A tiny body with long shadows tells you nobody won.

What are the 10 key ideas at a glance?

#The ideaWhat it means for your trading
1The open and close carry the emotionRead the real body first, then the shadows
2A “reversal” signal means the trend is likely to changeProtect gains, then wait
3Trade reversal signals only with the major trendA top signal in a bull market says take profits on longs
4One candle can mean two thingsThe same line is a hammer after a fall and a hanging man after a rally
5Some candles need confirmationWait for the next session after a hanging man or an inverted hammer
6Candles can flag turns that bar charts missAn engulfing pattern can signal a reversal without a new high
7Windows (gaps) act as support and resistancePullbacks often return to an open window
8A doji matters most where doji are rareDoji also call tops better than bottoms
9Confluence raises the oddsA candle at support beats the same candle in open space
10Candles give no targets, and every trade needs a stopSet the stop at entry, and find targets elsewhere

Why does Nison call a reversal pattern a misnomer?

This is the idea most readers skip. Nison writes that “the term ‘reversal pattern’ is somewhat of a misnomer.” A trend usually slows down before it turns.

His picture is a car driving forward. “The car’s red brake lights go on and the car stops.” The brake light told you the forward move was ending. It said nothing about whether the car would reverse or drive on again.

So “the prior trend is likely to change, but not necessarily reverse.” His rule follows from it: place a new position off a reversal signal “only if that signal is in the direction of the major trend.” Say a bearish pattern appears in a bull market. That is a reason to take profits on your longs, and a weak reason to sell short.

Which candlestick patterns should you learn first?

Hammer and hanging man. A small body at the top of the range with a long lower shadow, which “should be at least twice the height of the real body.” After a decline it is a hammer. After a rally the same line is a hanging man, and Nison says “it is especially important that you wait for bearish confirmation.”

Engulfing patterns. A second body wraps around the first, in the opposite colour. A bullish engulfing pattern shows “buying pressure has overwhelmed selling pressure.” Its partial cousins are the dark-cloud cover at a top and the piercing pattern at a bottom.

Stars. A small body gaps away from a long one. The morning star marks a bottom, the evening star a top, and the shooting star warns after a rally.

Harami. A small body inside a long prior body. It works like a brake, and “the market will often come to a lull.” See our bullish harami guide.

Doji and windows. “Doji sessions are important only in markets where there are not many doji.” A window is a gap, and Japanese analysis “asserts that corrections go back to the window”, so it becomes support or resistance. See the rising window and falling window.

The candlestick patterns cheat sheet sorts 50+ patterns by what they tell you.

What is the Rule of Multiple Techniques?

This is the heart of Part 2. Nison borrows the rule from Arthur Sklarew. It “states that the more technical indicators that assemble at the same price area, the greater the chance of an accurate forecast.”

Now imagine two hammers. The first forms near nothing in particular. The second forms at a support level that has held twice before, right at a 50% retracement of the last rally. Same candle. The second one has three reasons behind it, and the first has one.

Our posts on when resistance becomes support and how to combine candlestick patterns with other technical indicators show the pairing in practice.

The free 15-Minute Swing Trader’s Checklist at the end of this post turns that idea into a daily routine.

What does Nison say about stops and being wrong?

A stop “should be placed at the time of the original trade”, he writes, because that is when a trader is “most objective.” Once you are in, “there is no room for hope in the market.” And then: “The one thing worse than being wrong is staying wrong. Lose your opinion, not your money.”

He holds himself to it. “If this activity tells me I am mistaken in my opinion, I adjust to the market. I am not egocentric enough to believe that the market will adjust to me.” The same chapter says to “think of a stop as a cost of doing business.”

Here is the sum that shows why. Say you buy after a confirmed hammer, with the stop just under its low. That distance is 1R, and you risk 1% of your account on it. The nearest resistance is 2.5 times further away, so a win pays 2.5R. Now suppose only 4 trades in 10 work.

4 wins × 2.5R = +10R

6 losses × 1R = −6R

That nets +4R, roughly 4% on the account, from a pattern that failed more often than it worked. Hold the losers past the stop out of hope, and the sum falls apart. Our guide on where to put your stop loss and take profit shows how to place both on structure.

What are the limits of the book?

Candles “do not, however, provide price targets”, so the target has to come from support and resistance or retracements.

A candle also needs a close. “You may have to wait for the close to get a valid trading signal,” and a hammer an hour before the close can still finish as a plain black candle. See why you wait for the candle to close.

And it is a 1991 futures book, so open interest and pit-era notes take up space a stock trader may skim. More in the limitations of candlestick patterns.

Where the human edge comes in

A screener can now flag every hammer across thousands of charts in minutes. That is the cheap part, and Nison keeps asking for the expensive one. On one lumber chart he marks four hammers. Hammers 1 and 3 called bottoms. “Hammer 4 did not work,” because a pattern “should be viewed in the context of the prior price action.” The session before it was a long black candle that opened on its high and closed on its low, and hammer 4 itself broke old support.

A scanner sees four identical shapes. A trader has to ask what came before each one, whether the trend agrees, and whether the stop can be honoured without flinching. That last question is about fear and regret, and it stays with the person pressing the button.

Should you read Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques?

Yes, if you trade off charts. It sits fourth in the ten books I would give a beginner first, listed in my reading list as “the source on candlesticks, from the man who brought them west.”

Read Part 1 with a chart open, one pattern family at a time, and look for the formations that “work best for that market.” Then read Part 2 slowly, because that is where the patterns become a method. The wider shortlist is in the best investing and trading books of all time.

Concluding thoughts

The book gives you a vocabulary for the emotions on a chart, then tells you never to trust a single word of it alone. A hammer is a clue. A hammer at support, with the trend behind it and a stop under its low, is a trade. For the full library, start with the definitive guide to candlestick patterns.

So the next time a perfect-looking candle shows up on your screen, which other reason is standing at that price?

FAQ

What is the main idea of Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques?

That a candle signal is most reliable when other tools confirm it at the same price.

Is Steve Nison’s book good for beginners?

Part 1 is. Part 2 assumes you know trendlines, moving averages and oscillators, so it lands better after some practice.

What is the difference between a hammer and a hanging man?

The shape is identical. After a decline it is a bullish hammer. After a rally it is a bearish hanging man, which needs confirmation in the next session.

Go deeper

Nison’s rule is to set the stop when you enter. The free 15-Minute Swing Trader’s Checklist shows how to do that daily: the scan, the questions to ask before you enter, and the rules that keep each loss small. Get it from the form below this post.


About the author. Spencer Li is The 15-Minute Trader and the founder of Synapse Trading. He is a Certified Financial Technician (CFTe) with 15+ years of trading, run from 70+ countries. He holds a B.Acc and B.BM from SMU. Every trade he takes is public, dated, losses left in. He teaches rules-based swing trading in 15 minutes a day, one system for any market.

Educational content only, not personalised financial advice. Trading carries risk, including loss of capital. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Synapse Trading is not licensed or regulated by MAS.

by Spencer Li
https://synapsetrading.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/japanese-candlestick-charting-techniques-summary-card.webp 630 1200 Spencer Li https://synapsetrading.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/synapse-logo-horizontal-light.png Spencer Li2026-10-24 09:00:002026-10-27 17:02:26Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques Summary: Steve Nison’s Patterns and the Rule Behind Them
Spencer Li

Understanding Price Action Summary: Bob Volman on Which Breakouts to Trade

Trading Foundations
Summary card for the post: Understanding Price Action Summary: Bob Volman on Which Breakouts to Trade

How Volman reads the 5-minute chart: the buildup test, five setups, a fixed 1:2 bracket, and the trades he skips

Published: 22 October 2026 · By Spencer Li, CFTe


Every breakout trader knows the feeling. Price pokes through a level, you buy, and ten minutes later the stop is gone.

Understanding Price Action, Bob Volman’s 2014 book, is about telling those breaks apart before you take them. He trades the 5-minute EUR/USD chart with plain bars and one moving average. His answer fits in three words: “conditions are king.” A break is worth taking when bars have fought at the level first, when it runs with the side in control, and when nothing blocks the road to target. The rest he skips.

The book turns that into seven principles, five setups and one fixed exit, a 20 pip target against a 10 pip stop. Then it spends close to half its length on six months of annotated sessions.

Bob Volman's book on telling breakouts apart before you take them. Summary card for the post: Understanding Price Action Summary: Bob Volman on Which Breakouts to Trade.

Who is Bob Volman?

In the book’s own words, Volman is “an independent trader working solely for his own account.” He was born in 1961. His first book, Forex Price Action Scalping, came out in 2011. This is his second, signed off in July 2014. The book prints no track record and no win rate.

How is it different from Forex Price Action Scalping?

Our summary of Volman’s first book, Forex Price Action Scalping covers a very fast 70-tick chart. Readers kept asking whether its ideas worked on slower charts. The Preface says yes, because the principles “bear within them the universal laws of supply and demand,” in futures, indices, stocks, commodities and bonds too.

So the changes are practical. The chart slows to 5 minutes, with a 25-bar exponential moving average as the one tool. The setups become a closed list of five. And Part 2 walks through 132 consecutive trading days from March to August 2012.

What are the 10 key ideas at a glance?

Key ideaWhat it means at the screen
1. Conditions are kingJudge the bars before the break, never the break alone
2. Trade with dominanceGo the way of the side making new highs or lows
3. Double pressureThe best breaks force the losing side out in your direction
4. False, tease and proper breaksOnly a fight at the barrier allows a tight stop
5. The 25ema is a filterLet price come back to the average before you enter
6. Round numbers are magnetsThe 00 and 50 levels pull price toward them
7. Five named setupsPattern break, pattern break pullback, combi, pullback reversal, trade-for-failure
8. A fixed 1:2 bracket20 pip target, 10 pip stop, so one winner in three breaks even
9. Skip far more than you tradeClear high-odds trades come once or twice a session
10. Size by percentageRisk 1 to 2% per trade and let size follow the balance

What does “conditions are king” mean in practice?

Imagine a level price has hit three times this morning. Now the bars shrink and huddle just under it, their highs tapping the same price. Volman calls that huddle buildup, and most of the book is about reading it.

The reason is who sits inside that cluster. Buyers are waiting to jump in on the break. Sellers who shorted the level have their stops just above it. When the barrier gives way, both groups buy at once, one out of greed and one out of fear. He calls it double pressure, and it is what carries a break far enough to pay.

A straight run that slices through the level has none of that. Nobody was trapped, and the nearest sensible stop is a long way off. His rule is short: “If we don’t find buildup there, the offer is best declined.”

So he grades every break three ways. A false break has no buildup and needs a wide stop. A tease break has buildup away from the barrier, and often works only “second time around.” A proper break comes out of a fight right at the barrier, so the stop can sit just behind the cluster.

A proper break can still fail, since “it is never the outcome that determines these labels.” In his words, “it is never about price, it is all about pressure.” Our guide to false breakouts runs the same test on daily charts.

What are the seven price action principles?

Chapter 2 lists seven: double pressure, support and resistance, false, tease and proper breaks, false highs and lows, pullback reversals, the ceiling test, and the round number effect.

The 25ema sits over all seven as a filter. “The 25ema by itself never provides support or resistance, it is just an average.” Price keeps returning to it, which “turns the average into a perpetual magnet,” so an entry far from it has that magnet pulling the wrong way. For one average on a slower chart, see the best indicators for swing trading.

What are the five trade setups?

Each setup fires the same way. A signal bar forms in the right spot, and the trade goes on when the next bar takes out its high or low “by a pip.”

  1. Pattern break. A break out of a tight cluster at a barrier, often squeezed against the 25ema.
  2. Pattern break pullback. The first break was missed or badly built, so you wait for price to return to the broken level.
  3. Pattern break combi. A powerbar, then a small inside bar. Volman calls the pattern “just a tool with which to time an entry.”
  4. Pullback reversal. An orderly pullback of roughly 50 to 60% that reaches the 25ema and turns.
  5. Trade-for-failure. A break against the dominant side falls apart, and you trade the counterbreak with dominance.

The fifth looks contrarian, but it runs with the trend.

Why a fixed 20 pip target and a 10 pip stop?

Because the bracket takes the exit out of your hands. A trader prone to fear or greed, Volman says, “is probably better off putting faith in his bracket rather than in his own perceptions.”

A winner is +2R and a loser is -1R. Take 30 trades and say only 10 reach target:

10 winners × 2R = +20R, and 20 losers × 1R = -20R. You are flat.

Win 12 of the 30 and it becomes +24R against -18R, a gain of 6R. The selection rules only have to beat one winner in three.

The settings “do not claim to represent the ideal target and stop,” and in quiet markets he cuts the target to 8 to 10 pip. The habit underneath is deciding the exit before the entry, as in our guide on where to put your stop loss and take profit.

When does Volman say to skip a trade?

Far more often than he says to take one. Clear high-odds trades come “maybe once or twice a session in any one market.”

His seven typical errors make a pre-click check:

  1. Trading against a strong trend.
  2. Trading straight into support or resistance.
  3. Mistaking a range for a trend.
  4. Entering far from the 25ema, or near a round number.
  5. Trading a frantic market of oversized bars.
  6. Reversing a pullback full of aggressive powerbars.
  7. Front-running a break with too little buildup.

Suppose you catch yourself counting bars to talk yourself into a trade. That effort is the answer: “if we have to look hard for a trade, it is probably not there.” On news he says to “shun the news rather than try to trade it,” and on EUR/USD he stands aside at 14:30 CET.

What does the book say about position size?

Chapter 10 calls sizing “an accounting matter.” You risk a fixed percentage on each trade, so size grows and shrinks with the account. He suggests 1 to 2%, and says “it is strongly advised not to risk more than 2 percent on a single wager.”

The shrinking half is what keeps an account alive. Every losing run is traded smaller, so he argues it is “virtually impossible to blow up an account” under the rule. Lose 1% on 20 trades in a row with size following the balance, and you are down about 18% rather than 20%. Our post on risk of ruin shows why bet size moves that number most.

Then he undercuts his own tables. A steady weekly score, he admits, is “virtually untenable in practice.” His advice: “Much more useful is to concentrate on improving consistency first.”

What does the book not tell you?

There is no win rate. Volman shows close to 400 charts but never totals the trades. Whether six months rules out cherry-picking can be argued, he grants, “but there is a limit to what a trading book can do.”

The charts are from 2012. By July 2014 he wrote of “record-low volatility” intraday and moved to a faster chart with smaller targets. So the 20/10 settings belong to a normally active market.

And there is no journal or scoring system. He asks you to backtest a year of data yourself.

Where the human edge comes in

Much of this book is easy to turn into rules. Distance from the 25ema, a round number inside your stop, a news release due, oversized bars. A scanner can flag all of them.

It cannot flag the rest. Is that cluster real buildup, or a dead market “trading into nothingness”? Is the pullback in proportion to the move before it, what Volman calls the harmony principle? He admits the line between a tease and a proper break “can be rather thin at times.”

His answer is study, a library in your head of situations “that you have seen fail or succeed many times before.” Then he warns against the belief that a repeating market can be called in advance. “It can’t. It can only be anticipated.”

The filters say when a trade is allowed. Turning down an allowed trade because the fight looks thin is a person’s judgement, built one session at a time.

Concluding thoughts

Understanding Price Action is a long book about one question: was this break built well enough to take? Volman answers with a short set of tests and a fixed exit, then shows hundreds of sessions where the tests decide.

For his faster, earlier method, read our Forex Price Action Scalping summary. For the probability thinking behind a fixed stop, see our Trading in the Zone summary. For the wider shelf, see the best investing and trading books of all time.

So think back to your last three losing breakouts. Was there a fight at the level first, or did you buy a straight run into the barrier?

FAQ

What is Understanding Price Action by Bob Volman about?

It is a 2014 manual for trading breakouts on the 5-minute EUR/USD chart. Volman teaches you to judge the buildup before a break, trade with the dominant side, and exit on a fixed 20 pip target and 10 pip stop.

What moving average does Bob Volman use?

A 25-bar exponential moving average, the only tool on his chart. He uses it as a filter, never as support or resistance.

Does Volman’s method work outside forex?

He says the principles apply to futures, indices, stocks, commodities and bonds. The settings may need adjusting for each market’s range and speed.

Go deeper

Volman decides his exit before he enters. The free 15-Minute Swing Trader’s Checklist builds the same habit into a daily routine: the scan, the questions to ask before you enter, and the five rules that keep you in the game. You can get it at the end of this post.


About the author. Spencer Li is The 15-Minute Trader and the founder of Synapse Trading. He is a Certified Financial Technician (CFTe) with 15+ years of trading, run from 70+ countries. He holds a B.Acc and B.BM from SMU. Every trade he takes is public, dated, losses left in. He teaches rules-based swing trading in 15 minutes a day, one system for any market.

Educational content only, not personalised financial advice. Trading carries risk, including loss of capital. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Synapse Trading is not licensed or regulated by MAS.

by Spencer Li
https://synapsetrading.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/understanding-price-action-summary-card.webp 630 1200 Spencer Li https://synapsetrading.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/synapse-logo-horizontal-light.png Spencer Li2026-10-22 09:00:002026-10-27 17:02:07Understanding Price Action Summary: Bob Volman on Which Breakouts to Trade
Spencer Li

Is Insider Buying a Good Sign? What the Research Says, and How to Read a Filing

Markets & Products
Is insider buying bullish? - stocks

Some insider purchases have carried real information. Most insider trades carry none, and the filing tells you which is which

Published: 12 October 2026 · By Spencer Li, CFTe


In one well-known study of US company insiders from 1975 to 1996, the shares that insiders bought went on to beat the market by “about 40 basis points per month”, which compounds to roughly 5% a year. The shares they sold did not underperform at all.

So yes, insider buying can be a good sign, but only a certain kind of buying. A director paying cash for shares on the open market is telling you something. A director receiving shares as part of their pay, exercising options, or buying through a plan set up months ago is mostly telling you about their pay package. And even the good kind is a reason to look closer, rather than a reason to buy.

In this post, I’m going to show you where these trades are disclosed in the US and in Singapore, what the research really found, and a simple three-part check: who bought, how they got the shares, and how much.

A reason to look, never a reason to buy. Summary card for the post: Is Insider Buying a Good Sign? What the Research Says, and How to Read a Filing.

Where can you see what insiders are buying?

Both the US and Singapore make insiders report their trades within days, and both publish the reports for free.

In the US, the SEC counts officers, directors and anyone holding more than 10% of a company’s shares as insiders. Its investor bulletin is clear on the timing: “Form 4 must be filed within two business days following the transaction date.” The forms sit on the SEC’s EDGAR database, and free sites such as OpenInsider collect them into searchable tables.

In Singapore, the rule sits in the Securities and Futures Act. A director or chief executive must notify the company “within 2 business days” of a change in their interest in its shares. The company then has to announce it to the exchange “as soon as practicable and in any case, no later than the end of the business day following the day on which the corporation received the notice.” So a director’s purchase of an SGX stock usually shows up in the company’s announcements on the SGX website within a few working days. If you are new to the local market, our post on how SGX trading works covers the basics.

Does insider buying really predict stock returns?

On average, in the older data, open-market purchases did. Sales mostly did not.

The study I opened with, by Jeng, Metrick and Zeckhauser, found that “the purchase portfolio earns abnormal returns of about 40 basis points per month”, while “The sale portfolio does not earn abnormal returns.” It also found that only about one-sixth of that extra return arrived in the first five days after the trade. Most of it came later, after the filing was public, which is why ordinary investors care about this at all.

A later study by Cohen, Malloy and Pomorski split insiders into two groups. “Routine” insiders trade in the same month year after year, often for reasons like tax or a bonus date. “Opportunistic” insiders break their own pattern. The opportunistic trades “yields value-weight abnormal returns of 82 basis points per month”, while “the abnormal returns associated with routine traders are essentially zero.”

Here is the arithmetic, so you can see the size of it.

  • 40 basis points a month: 1.004 to the power of 12 is about 1.049, so roughly 5% a year above the benchmark.
  • 82 basis points a month: 1.0082 to the power of 12 is about 1.103, so roughly 10% a year.

Those are attractive numbers, but do note three things first. Both studies use data that is decades old, and research on market anomalies finds that about half of a published return tends to disappear once the paper is out and traders act on it (McLean and Pontiff, 2016). The figures are averages across hundreds of trades, before trading costs. And the effect has been strongest in smaller companies, where one person’s purchase is a bigger share of the company.

If you want a routine for turning a lead like this into a trade you can actually manage, our free 15-Minute Swing Trader’s Checklist walks through the questions to ask first. Get the free checklist →

Why do insider sales say so little?

Because insiders sell for many reasons, and most of them have nothing to do with the company’s prospects.

The SEC’s own bulletin says it plainly: “insiders may sell company securities for any number of reasons, including for liquidity and diversification purposes.” A founder selling to buy a house or pay a tax bill is doing what anyone with most of their money in one stock would do.

A purchase is different. There is really only one reason to take your own cash and put more of it into a company that already pays your salary. You think the shares are cheap.

How do you read an insider filing?

Ask three questions, and together they sort the useful filings from the noise.

Who bought? A director or a senior officer who sees the business every day carries more weight than a large outside shareholder. In the US, a fund that owns more than 10% also files Form 4, and its buying often reflects its own strategy rather than inside knowledge of the business.

How did they get the shares? This is where most of the filings fall away. On a Form 4, each trade carries a one-letter code, and only one of them is an insider choosing to put cash in.

Code or typeWhat it meansWhat it tells you
POpen market or private purchaseThe one that matters: the insider chose to buy with their own money
SOpen market or private saleLittle on its own: insiders sell for many reasons
AGrant or award from the companyNothing: it is part of their pay
MExercise of an optionUsually nothing: it turns pay into shares
FShares withheld to pay tax or the exercise priceNothing: it is paperwork
10b5-1 box tickedThe trade was set up in advance under a trading planLess: the decision was made months earlier

Since April 2023, a US Form 4 also shows a checkbox when the trade was made under a pre-scheduled 10b5-1 plan. Directors and officers usually have to wait at least 90 days after setting up such a plan before it can trade. A ticked box means the decision is old news. In Singapore filings, read the description of the transaction for the same clue: a market purchase is the case you are looking for.

Form 4 trade codes as tiles: P, an open-market purchase with the insider's own cash, stands apart from S, A, M and F, which are noise
Only code P, an insider buying with their own cash, carries real information.

How much did they buy? Compare the size of the purchase with the insider’s existing holding and their likely pay. A chief executive buying a year’s salary worth of shares is a statement. A director adding a token amount after a bad quarter may be a gesture. Several insiders buying in the same few weeks is stronger than one, although one large online test of over 4,000 purchases found that the “several at once” bonus was not reliable on its own.

What are the traps with following insider buying?

The biggest trap is treating a filing as a buy signal with a date on it.

A trader online tested insider purchases as a way to predict the next earnings report, and concluded: “Insider buying was wrong 79% of the time.” It sounds damning. But a reply in the same thread made the better point: “Insider buying is historically a 12–24 month signal, not a next-quarter earnings predictor.” Insiders are only allowed to trade in certain windows, usually just after results, so their purchases reflect what they knew last quarter. Our post on holding stocks through earnings explains why a single report is a coin toss for anyone outside the company.

That test used only 19 names, far too few to settle anything, but it teaches the right lesson. An insider purchase is a slow, patient vote of confidence in the business. It says nothing about next week’s price, and it does not tell you where to get in or where you are wrong.

The other trap is the story. Once you know the chairman bought, every chart looks bullish, which is the narrative fallacy at work.

Should you use insider buying in your own trading?

The safest way to use an insider purchase is as a reason to look, never a reason to buy.

A good filing earns a stock a place on the watchlist. From there, it has to pass the same tests as any other idea: a trend you can see, a clear level to trade from, and a stop that keeps the loss small if the insider turns out to be wrong. Insiders are sometimes wrong, and they can wait years for their view to play out. Our guide on how to find stocks to swing trade shows how that first cut of a watchlist can work.

So, the last time you saw a headline about an insider buying, did you check the code? Was it cash on the open market, or a grant dressed up as news? And was the stock already in a trend you would trade anyway? For more on finding and judging individual shares, see the guide to stocks and CFDs trading.

FAQ

Is insider buying a good sign?

It can be. Open-market purchases by directors and officers beat the market on average in past studies, while sales, grants and option exercises mostly did not. Treat it as a reason to research the stock, rather than a reason to buy it.

Where can I see insider buying for US stocks?

On the SEC’s EDGAR database, where insiders file Form 4 within two business days of a trade. Free sites such as OpenInsider collect these filings into searchable lists.

How do I see director dealings for SGX stocks?

A Singapore-listed company must announce a director’s change in shareholding to the exchange by the end of the business day after it is notified. The announcements appear in the company announcements section of the SGX website.

Is insider selling a bad sign?

Usually not on its own. The SEC notes that insiders sell for many reasons, including liquidity and diversification, and studies found that the stocks insiders sold did not underperform.

Is it legal for insiders to buy their own company’s shares?

Yes, when they trade within the rules and report the trade. Trading on inside information that the public does not have is illegal, which is why insiders usually trade only in open windows after results.

Go deeper

An insider purchase is a lead, and a lead still needs a plan. The free 15-Minute Swing Trader’s Checklist has the daily routine, the questions to ask before every trade, and the five rules that protect your account.


About the author. Spencer Li is The 15-Minute Trader and the founder of Synapse Trading. He is a Certified Financial Technician (CFTe) with 15+ years of trading, run from 70+ countries. He holds a B.Acc and B.BM from SMU. Every trade he takes is public, dated, losses left in. He teaches rules-based swing trading in 15 minutes a day, one system for any market.

Educational content only, not personalised financial advice. Trading carries risk, including loss of capital. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Synapse Trading is not licensed or regulated by MAS.

by Spencer Li
https://synapsetrading.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/insider-buying-card.webp 630 1200 Spencer Li https://synapsetrading.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/synapse-logo-horizontal-light.png Spencer Li2026-10-12 10:27:352026-10-27 17:06:21Is Insider Buying a Good Sign? What the Research Says, and How to Read a Filing
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