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Spencer Li

Weekly Market Wrap: Is the Market Rebound Running out of Steam?

Market Analysis
Chong Kemin Valley Kyrgyzstan

While we saw some strong rebound in the markets due to lower inflation numbers (and hope of a pivot), I feel it is only a matter of time before the relief rally runs out of steam.

The recent news headlines do not seem bullish:

  • UK officially entering a recession
  • Japan seeing the highest inflation in 40 years
  • Many tech companies laying off large numbers of staff
  • US retail sales higher than expected (sign of inflation not coming down)
  • US initial jobless claims decreasing

Hence, the chance of a Fed pivot seems unlikely at this point.

However, the market is always right, so I will still trade based on the price action as it unfolds.

I have placed price triggers at various critical levels, so we will receive the alerts once the opportunity arises.

Join us in our Daily Trading Signals Telegram channel to receive these real-time alerts!

 

Chong Kemin Valley Kyrgyzstan

[Photo: Chong-Kemin Valley, Kyrgyzstan – See my full travel photo log!]

For our weekly market wrap, we go through some of the trade calls and analysis from last week, which gives us valuable insights for the week ahead.

We cover 3 main markets with a total of 200+ counters, so we will never run out of trading opportunities:

  • Forex, CFDs, commodities, bonds
  • US stocks, ETFs, global stock indices
  • Cryptocurrencies, crypto indices

By covering a broad range of markets, we can focus our attention (and capital) on whichever market currently gives the best returns.

Click here to receive all these signals in real-time for only $67 a month! You will get several signals a day, and even taking just 1 trade the whole month can easily cover the fee, so what are you waiting for? Trading Signals Commodity 050322 emoji

 

Weekly Market Outlook Video

Trading Signals weekly market outlook 141122

Weekly Market Outlook (13 November 2022)

After the CPI showed slowing inflation, the stock markets shot up drastically, but this does not necessarily mean a reversal of the long-term trend.

2 ways to trade this market:

1. Wait for short-term momentum to weaken and run into strong S/R levels, then enter in the direction of the LT trend

2. Ride the short/medium-term momentum by entering on pullbacks on smaller timeframe

 

Portfolio Highlights

Trading Signals Weekly portfolio 141122

Weekly Portfolio Update (13 November 2022)

Not much changes.

 

Forex & Commodities Market Highlights

Trading Signals EURCAD 151122

Very nice inverse H&S reversal for EURCAD, plus it broke the bear trendline at the same time.

Can look to go long on pullbacks.

 

Trading Signals USDSGD 141122

USDSGD has dropped quite steeply the past few weeks, and might be somewhat oversold.

Even though it is in the middle of the wider range, and might drop all the way to the bottom of the range, we can still aim to trade the rebound (red rectangle), and then use a trailing stoploss.

 

Trading Signals USDSGD 161122

Following up on USDSGD, we have seen 4 doji bars (with 1 being a bullish hammer), which suggest a slowing in the bearish momentum.

The RSI is also in the extreme oversold zone.

Odds of a rebound are high.

I would suggest taking a long position with a SL at around 1.36.

 

Stock & Bond Market Highlights

Trading Signals NADSAQ100 141122

Critical zone here for the NASDAQ 100 (US100), whether it can muster enough strength for a larger move up, and break past the trendline.

 

Trading Signals NADSAQ100 weekly 141122

To better illustrate what I meant by following the long-term trend, this is the weekly chart of the NASDAQ 100 (US100).

You can see that when prices go up or down, there will be moves against the main trend (red circles) that range from 15-25%.

The key is to wait patiently and find the optimal point (most reward and lowest risk) to enter the market and ride the long-term trend.

 

Trading Signals NADSAQ100 171122

So far we have seen one shooting star (bearish pinbar) on the NASDAQ 100 (US100), when it tried to break above the trendline.

Now, it is at a crucial point because it is at the top of the LT bearish trendline, but the ST price action recently just broke above the small consolidation (yellow rectangle).

If prices fall back into the small consolidation (break the red line), then i would consider adding back my short positions.

 

Trading Signals REET 141122

Similar situation for the Global REITs ETF (REET) which is a benchmark for global real estate.

 

Trading Signals amazon layoff 121122

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/14/amazon-reportedly-plans-to-lay-off-about-10000-employees-starting-this-week.html

 

Trading Signals inflation cooldown news 111122

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-inflation-cooldown-is-finally-here-11668097915

 

Crypto Market Highlights

Trading Signals ftx hacked 121122

https://www.coindesk.com/business/2022/11/12/ftx-crypto-wallets-see-mysterious-late-night-outflows-totalling-more-than-380m

 

 

Click here to receive all these signals in real-time for only $67 a month! You will get several signals a day, and even taking just 1 trade the whole month can easily cover the fee, so what are you waiting for? Trading Signals Commodity 050322 emoji

Good luck, and may next week bring more excellent profits!

0 Comments/by Spencer Li
https://synapsetrading.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/Chong-Kemin-Valley-Kyrgyzstan.jpg 1536 2048 Spencer Li https://synapsetrading.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/logo.jpg Spencer Li2022-11-18 03:28:102022-11-18 18:27:00Weekly Market Wrap: Is the Market Rebound Running out of Steam?
Spencer Li

Weekly Market Wrap: FTX Crash, Lower Inflation, Fed Pivot?

Technical Analysis & Price Action
2022 09 11 21 36 37

This week was a crazy week, which saw the collapse of FTX, one of the largest crypto brokerages.

This will likely have more domino-effect impact on various crypto markets in the weeks to come, and not in a good way.

On the plus side, the recent CPI data shows a slowing of inflation, which caused stock markets to spike and the USD to plunge.

Is this sufficient for a Fed pivot (or at least a slow in rate hikes), which could hint at a market bottom?

Find out in my “weekly market outlook” video tomorrow, which I will post in my Daily Trading Signals private Telegram channel!

 

2022 09 11 21 36 37

[Photo: Dushanbe, Tajikistan – See my full travel photo log!]

For our weekly market wrap, we go through some of the trade calls and analysis from last week, which gives us valuable insights for the week ahead.

We cover 3 main markets with a total of 200+ counters, so we will never run out of trading opportunities:

  • Forex, CFDs, commodities, bonds
  • US stocks, ETFs, global stock indices
  • Cryptocurrencies, crypto indices

By covering a broad range of markets, we can focus our attention (and capital) on whichever market currently gives the best returns.

Click here to receive all these signals in real-time for only $67 a month! You will get several signals a day, and even taking just 1 trade the whole month can easily cover the fee, so what are you waiting for? Trading Signals Commodity 050322 emoji

 

Weekly Market Outlook Video

Trading Signals weekly market outlook 091122

Weekly Market Outlook (07 November 2022)

CPI data on 10 Nov is expected to be the main market mover this week, best not to take any major positions ahead of this news.

 

Portfolio Highlights

Trading Signals Weekly Portfolio 081122

Weekly Portfolio Update (07 November 2022)

Largest position is now short-term T-bills, which are giving 4+% risk-free returns.

 

Forex & Commodities Market Highlights

Trading Signals USDSGD 081122

USDSGD Crossing 1.40143
Break swing low

 

Trading Signals WTICOUSD 101122

WTICOUSD Crossing 85.061
Crude Oil
Break swing low

 

Stock & Bond Market Highlights

Trading Signals ARKK 121122

ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) which represents high growth tech stocks broke new lows yesterday, putting it now at a major support level.

IF this level breaks, it will be hitting lows last seen in 2017. Not looking good.

 

Trading Signals Chinatech stocks 071122

Rebound on China tech stocks (3067) has happened as predicted! Congrats to those who followed, it was a quick 10-15% profit over a few days! ????

 

Trading Signals inflation news 121122

BREAKING!

US headline #inflation fell to 7.7% in October, 7.9% expected.

US core #CPI fell to 6.3%, 6.5% expected.

Rally coming!

 

Trading Signals Layoff news 051122

Layoffs announced in the last day:
– Lyft 13% of workers
– Opendoor 18%
– Stripe 14%
– Chime 12%
– Twitter 50%
– Morgan Stanley (% unknown)

—-

Delivery Hero is laying off as we speak. Don’t have numbers yet. Also, Pleo (expense management) let go 15% of staff.

Lyft, Stripe, CloudKitchens all doing layoffs today. OpenDoor, Chime, Dapper Labs, Gem, MessageBird, Kry this week.

Source: Twitter (GergelyOrosz, GRDecter)

 

Trading Signals treasury yields news 051122

Compared to a month ago, the expected peak interest rate has gone up, but the duration to the peak has shifted from 2.5yrs to 1yr.

This suggests they are expecting the Fed to aggressively hike so the peak can be reached faster, but the peak keeps getting higher.

 

Crypto Market Highlights

Trading Signals crypto BTCUSD ETHUSD 101122

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) and Ethereum (ETHUSD) having huge selldowns after the FTX fiasco.

There is likely a lot more selling/iquidations/margin calls coming up, so it is better not to try and catch the falling knife at this point.

 

Trading Signals binance deal breaks 101122

https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/ftx-turmoil-causes-crypto-concern-sending-token-prices-sliding-2022-11-09/

 

Trading Signals bankless FTX 101122

Summary of the whole saga: https://newsletter.banklesshq.com/p/the-shocking-collapse-of-the-ftx

 

 

Click here to receive all these signals in real-time for only $67 a month! You will get several signals a day, and even taking just 1 trade the whole month can easily cover the fee, so what are you waiting for? Trading Signals Commodity 050322 emoji

Good luck, and may next week bring more excellent profits!

0 Comments/by Spencer Li
https://synapsetrading.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/2022-09-11-21.36.37-scaled.jpg 1920 2560 Spencer Li https://synapsetrading.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/logo.jpg Spencer Li2022-11-11 10:48:402022-11-13 00:41:21Weekly Market Wrap: FTX Crash, Lower Inflation, Fed Pivot?
Spencer Li

Weekly Market Wrap: Bear Market Resumes after FOMC!

Market Analysis
Jokulsarlon Glacier Lagoon Iceland

We had 2 major pieces of new last week, which was the FOMC and the NFP.

The FOMC hiked rates by 0.75%, which was in line with expectations, but they also maintained the hardline stance of aggressively increasing rates till inflation is tamed, and would rather overshoot than undershoot, because (they think) they can remedy by cutting rates if a recession happens.

The NFP data showed that although jobs increased, it seems to be reaching a gradual turning point, which suggested that the rate hikes are working to reverse the trend.

As mentioned in last week’s video, I expect the bearish trend to resume soon, with new lows perhaps as early as next week.

Besides the short position on stocks, there is also something which we have been accumulating steadily, and is now deeply in the money, with lots more room to continue going up.

What do you think this is?

Find out in our Daily Trading Signals private Telegram channel!

 

Jokulsarlon Glacier Lagoon Iceland

[Photo: Jokulsarlon Glacier Lagoon, Iceland – See my full travel photo log!]

For our weekly market wrap, we go through some of the trade calls and analysis from last week, which gives us valuable insights for the week ahead.

We cover 3 main markets with a total of 200+ counters, so we will never run out of trading opportunities:

  • Forex, CFDs, commodities, bonds
  • US stocks, ETFs, global stock indices
  • Cryptocurrencies, crypto indices

By covering a broad range of markets, we can focus our attention (and capital) on whichever market currently gives the best returns.

Click here to receive all these signals in real-time for only $67 a month! You will get several signals a day, and even taking just 1 trade the whole month can easily cover the fee, so what are you waiting for? Trading Signals Commodity 050322 emoji

 

Weekly Market Outlook Video

Trading Signals Weekly Market Outlook 301022

Weekly Market Outlook (31 October 2022)
? 2 Nov: FOMC interest-rate decision
? 4 Nov: October NFP jobs report
? 8 Nov: mid-term elections
? 10 Nov: CPI (inflation data)

 

Portfolio Highlights

Trading Signals Weekly portfolio 301022

Weekly Portfolio Update (31 October 2022)

Increased fixed income (bonds) allocation slightly, went net positive on crypto allocation.

 

Forex & Commodities Market Highlights

Trading Signals forex pairs 301022

Comparison of all major forex pairs YTD

(Note that I have put the USD as the numerator for all pairs to enable easy comparison.)

USD is the strongest currency, followed by SGD, CAD and CHF.

JPY is the weakest currency by a large margin.

 

Trading Signals AUDNZD 041122

The AUDNZD has traded in a wide range for many years. Recently, it tried to break out of the range but failed and went back down.

It might head back to test the bottom of the range, so we can look to short on pullbacks.

 

Trading Signals AUDUSD 301022

AUDUSD is having a bullish rebound, you can either take a short-term trade to the red zone, or wait for price to reach there for a shorting opportunity.

 

Trading Signals DXY 301022

Entry zone for long positions on the US Dollar Index (DXY), with a SL below.

 

Trading Signals EURUSD 301022

EURUSD is consolidating near the major 1.000 level, which is now resistance. The red zone would be a good shorting opportunity, with a SL around 1.0100.

 

Trading Signals USDSGD 031122

After yesterday’s FOMC, where we saw the USDSGD spike down, but shortly after recovered and went back up.

As mentioned in the last video, that’s a strong sign that the price action remains bullish, and will likely test new highs.

 

Stock & Bond Market Highlights

Trading Signals major markets 301022

Comparison of all major markets YTD

Most markets are down for the year, the only 2 which are positive are the US Dollar Index (DXY) and the general Commodity Index (GCC).

 

Trading Signals China Tech stocks 301022

Climatic selling on China tech stocks (3067) suggests a possible rebound, which would bring prices back to test the prior resistance.

 

Trading Signals US100 041122

The NASDAQ 100 (US100) is coming back down after the Fed signalled that they will continue with future rate hikes.

 

Trading Signals FOMC 041122

New sentence in the FOMC statement signals more increases but hints at possibly smaller increments.

 

Trading Signals hike 031122

ON EVERY SINGLE FOMC RATE HIKE SO FAR THIS YEAR MARKETS HAVE DUMPED AT 2:00 PM EST WHEN THE RATE HIKE CAME OUT AND RALLIED AT 2:30 EST WEHEN POWELL SPOKE $SPY $SPX pic.twitter.com/qK2jIRhcWZ

— GURGAVIN (@gurgavin) November 1, 2022

 

Trading Signals SP500 news 021122

Visualizing S&P 500 Performance in 2022, by Sector

 

Trading Signals apple 041122

Apple plans a hiring freeze that will extend until the middle of next year. And with that all of big tech (FAAMNG) has either had layoffs or implemented a hiring freeze.

I haven’t seen a job market look this bad for college grads in my entire career.https://t.co/twoYoMqOZF

— Dare Obasanjo ? (@Carnage4Life) November 3, 2022

 

Crypto Market Highlights

Trading Signals ETHUSD 291022

Bull flag forming on Ethereum (ETHUSD) on smaller timeframe. Taking a small long position to see how it goes. Can put a SL around $1450 area.

 

 

Click here to receive all these signals in real-time for only $67 a month! You will get several signals a day, and even taking just 1 trade the whole month can easily cover the fee, so what are you waiting for? Trading Signals Commodity 050322 emoji

Good luck, and may next week bring more excellent profits!

0 Comments/by Spencer Li
https://synapsetrading.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/Jokulsarlon-Glacier-Lagoon-Iceland.jpg 756 1008 Spencer Li https://synapsetrading.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/logo.jpg Spencer Li2022-11-04 14:17:492022-11-11 10:39:13Weekly Market Wrap: Bear Market Resumes after FOMC!
Spencer Li

Weekly Market Wrap: News-Driven Choppy Markets

Market Analysis
Tasmania Australia

Recently, there has been a lot more volatility in the market, as seen even in the major stock indices, where fluctuations of 2-5% a day have become the norm.

In the absence of major news, the market has been reacting strongly on any minor news, making it hard to take short-term trading positions that are technical-driven.

As I mentioned in last week’s video, there is likely to be a rebound, so the best option was to stay out or take short-term long positions.

Now, that the rebound is in progress, the big question is when it will end, and whether it might be the start of a market bottom.

I will be touching on that in this week’s market outlook video, and as well as my strategy to capitalise on that.

If you are keen to join us, check out our Daily Trading Signals Telegram channel.

See you on the inside!

 

Tasmania Australia

[Photo: Tasmania, Australia – See my full travel photo log!]

For our weekly market wrap, we go through some of the trade calls and analysis from last week, which gives us valuable insights for the week ahead.

We cover 3 main markets with a total of 200+ counters, so we will never run out of trading opportunities:

  • Forex, CFDs, commodities, bonds
  • US stocks, ETFs, global stock indices
  • Cryptocurrencies, crypto indices

By covering a broad range of markets, we can focus our attention (and capital) on whichever market currently gives the best returns.

Click here to receive all these signals in real-time for only $67 a month! You will get several signals a day, and even taking just 1 trade the whole month can easily cover the fee, so what are you waiting for? Trading Signals Commodity 050322 emoji

 

Weekly Market Outlook Video

Trading Signals weekly market outlook 251022

Weekly Market Outlook (25 October 2022)
? Next rate hike in about 8 days
? Investors exit China stocks
? Long-term bearish for stocks, crypto, REITs, commods, but short-term sideways
? Long-term bullish for USD

 

Portfolio Highlights

Trading Signals Weekly Portfoilio 251022

Weekly Portfolio Update (25 October 2022)

Not much change from last week, since markets have not moved much.

 

Trading Signals Asset classes 281022

Interesting read: https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2022/10/which-asset-class-is-more-attractive-right-now-stocks-or-bonds/

Does this mean that as long as inflation stops rising, the stock market might start seeing a bottom?

 

Forex & Commodities Market Highlights

Trading Signals AUDUSD 251022

Another nice bear flag on AUDUSD, possible to take a short with SL (stoploss) above the swing high, and ride the trend downwards.

 

Trading Signals EURJPY 251022

Following up on EURJPY, there was an excellent pullback opportunity for a low-risk entry, with SL below the 2 pin-bars.

Even now, we can still look to enter on any pullbacks on smaller timeframes.

 

Trading Signals GBPUSD 221022

GBPUSD getting ready to resume the downtrend. Taking some short positions.

 

Trading Signals XAUUSD 211022

Gold (XAUUSD) has now hit the previous swing low, congrats to those who have shorted! ????

Now would be a good time to take half profits, and see if the remaining half can drop all the way to the next support level.

 

Stock & Bond Market Highlights

Trading Signals TLT 211022

20+ year treasury bond ETF (TLT) is down 45% from all-time highs, and might continue to fall further.

This is a good leading indicator for stocks, so I will be keeping an eye to see when it bottoms.

 

Trading Signals inflation news 221022

https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2022/10/why-isnt-inflation-falling/

 

Trading Signals Meta news 271022

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/26/facebook-parent-meta-earnings-q3-2022.html

 

Trading Signals tech stocks china 221022

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/24/alibaba-tencent-shares-plummet-as-xi-jinping-tightens-grip-on-power.html

 

Trading Signals yield curve 261022

Currently, the yield curve is pricing in a Fed pivot in 1 years time.

 

Crypto Market Highlights

Trading Signals ETHUSD 261022

Recently, Ethereum (ETHUSD) has broke out of the narrow range, and there is no telling whether this is a real or false breakout, so the best options are to:

1. stay out
2. take small long positions on pullbacks on smaller timeframes

 

 

Click here to receive all these signals in real-time for only $67 a month! You will get several signals a day, and even taking just 1 trade the whole month can easily cover the fee, so what are you waiting for? Trading Signals Commodity 050322 emoji

Good luck, and may next week bring more excellent profits!

0 Comments/by Spencer Li
https://synapsetrading.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Tasmania-Australia.jpg 809 1080 Spencer Li https://synapsetrading.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/logo.jpg Spencer Li2022-10-28 22:45:272022-10-30 11:41:18Weekly Market Wrap: News-Driven Choppy Markets
Spencer Li

What is Tether (USDT) Stablecoin, and is it a Good Investment?

Blockchain & Crypto
Thumbnail What is Tether USDT and is it a good investment

What Is Tether (USDT)? A Plain-English Guide to the Biggest Stablecoin

Last updated: 3 July 2026 · By Spencer Li, CFTe


Tether (USDT) is the largest stablecoin in the world, a cryptocurrency designed so that one USDT is always worth about one US dollar. A stablecoin is a crypto token pegged to a stable asset (here, the US dollar), so it does not swing in price the way Bitcoin or Ethereum do. Tether holds it near one dollar by claiming to back every coin in circulation with reserves of roughly equal value. In practice, traders use USDT as a place to park money between trades, to move dollars between exchanges quickly, and to buy other cryptocurrencies. It is the most widely accepted stablecoin and the most liquid. Is it a good investment? Honestly, that is the wrong question. A stablecoin is not built to go up. It is built to stay put. You hold USDT to avoid volatility and stay flexible, not to grow your money. The real things to weigh are whether the peg holds and whether the reserves are really there.

Here is the full picture: what a stablecoin is, how Tether works, the case for using it, and the risks nobody likes to mention.

What is a stablecoin?

A stablecoin is a digital asset pegged to something with a stable value, usually the US dollar. The whole point is to avoid the wild price swings of the crypto market while keeping the convenience of blockchain (the shared, tamper-resistant ledger that records every transaction).

Think of it as a dollar that lives on the blockchain. Bitcoin can move 10% in a day. A stablecoin is supposed to sit at one dollar and stay there.

That stability is what makes it useful. A currency that swings around is hard to spend, save, or settle a trade in. A stablecoin is meant to be boring on purpose, which is exactly what you want when you are using it to hold value, move money, or settle a transaction.

What is Tether (USDT), and how does it work?

Tether is a stablecoin pegged to the US dollar, so one USDT is meant to equal one US dollar. It was first issued in 2014 and is run by a company called Tether Limited. The token is now issued across several blockchains, including Ethereum and Tron, not just the original Omni Layer it launched on.

It works like any other crypto token. You can send USDT to another person, use it to pay for goods or services, or store it in a digital wallet (software that holds your crypto, a bit like an online bank account). Every transaction is recorded on the blockchain.

The model is simple in theory. Tether Limited says each USDT in circulation is backed by reserves it holds, mostly cash and US Treasury bills. So in principle every coin is matched by about a dollar of real assets somewhere. That backing is what is supposed to keep the price glued to one dollar: if USDT ever drifts below a dollar, arbitrageurs (traders who profit from price gaps) buy it cheap and redeem it for the full dollar, which pushes the price back up.

Do note that the redemption process is not as frictionless as the original pitch suggests. Direct redemption with Tether is mainly for large, verified accounts and carries minimums and fees. Most ordinary users never redeem with Tether at all. They just sell USDT for dollars on an exchange. That distinction matters more than it sounds, and we will come back to it under risks.

Why traders use Tether

Tether is the default stablecoin for most of the crypto market, and the reasons are practical rather than exciting. Here is the honest case for it.

ReasonWhat it means for youThe honest caveat
StabilitySits near one dollar, so you can step out of a volatile trade without leaving crypto“Near” one dollar, not exactly. It has wobbled before
LiquidityThe most traded stablecoin, so you can move in and out fastLiquidity can dry up in a panic, which is the worst time
Accepted everywhereMost exchanges take USDT, so it is the easiest bridge to buy Bitcoin, Ethereum and the restWide acceptance is not the same as safety
TransparencyTether publishes regular reserve attestationsAttestations are snapshots, not full independent audits. Read the difference
Speed and easeAll you need is a wallet and an internet connection. No mining, no complexitySpeed cuts both ways. A bad transfer is irreversible

A few of these deserve a closer look, because the original pitch around stablecoins tends to oversell them.

On transparency, be precise. Tether publishes attestations: a third party confirms what the reserves looked like at a single point in time. That is genuinely more than nothing, and Tether’s reporting has improved over the years. But an attestation is not a full audit, where an auditor stands behind the numbers over a whole period. If someone tells you Tether is “fully audited”, they are overstating it. Know what you are actually getting.

On liquidity, USDT really is deep and easy to trade in normal conditions. The catch is that liquidity is highest exactly when you do not need it and thinnest in a crisis, when everyone wants out at once. Plan for the bad day, not the good one.

One correction worth making plainly: USDT is not decentralized. Tether Limited issues it, controls the supply, and can freeze tokens at specific addresses when asked by law enforcement. That centralization is a feature for compliance and a risk for anyone who assumed crypto means “no one can touch my coins”. Both things are true at once.

The risks nobody likes to mention

Every stablecoin carries risk, and pretending otherwise is how people get hurt.

The first is hacking, the standard crypto risk. Tether itself has not suffered a major blockchain-level breach, which is a point in its favour, but the exchanges and wallets where you hold USDT absolutely have been hacked. Where you keep it matters as much as what it is.

The second, and the big one, is depegging. Because USDT is pegged to the dollar, the whole thing rests on that peg holding. If confidence cracks and the peg breaks, a stablecoin can fall fast. We saw the worst version of this with Terra USD (UST) in 2022, which spiralled toward zero in days. Tether is a very different design from UST, and it has defended its peg through several scares, briefly dipping below a dollar and recovering. But “it held last time” is a hope, not a guarantee.

The third is reserve risk, which is really the depeg risk underneath the depeg risk. The peg is only as good as the assets behind it. If you cannot fully verify the reserves, you are trusting Tether Limited. That trust has mostly been rewarded, and it has also been questioned, including a past settlement with regulators over how reserves were once represented. None of this means avoid it. It means size it like a position with counterparty risk, not like cash in a bank.

Where the human edge comes in

A screen will tell you USDT is sitting at one dollar in a tenth of a second. What it will not tell you is when “one dollar” has quietly become a crowded exit. The data is free. The judgment to not park your whole stack in a single stablecoin, to spread counterparty risk, and to treat a peg as a promise rather than a law, that is the part no tool supplies for you. That judgment is the first of the Five Edges that AI cannot trade for you.

So is Tether a good investment?

Reframe it. Tether is not really an investment, because it is not designed to go up. It is the blue-chip parking spot of the crypto world, a way to hold value in dollars without leaving the blockchain. Used for what it is good at, holding, moving, and settling, it does the job better than any rival. If you are reaching for a stablecoin specifically to chase high yields, understand that the higher the advertised yield, the higher the risk you are taking on, and the peg you are leaning on may be flimsier than Tether’s.

Hold USDT to stay nimble, not to get rich. Keep an eye on the peg, do not concentrate everything in one issuer, and you have used the tool correctly.

FAQ

Is Tether (USDT) safe?
It is the most established and most liquid stablecoin, and it has defended its dollar peg through multiple scares. But it is not risk-free: the main risks are depegging and reserve quality, and you are trusting Tether Limited to back every coin. Treat it as a low-volatility holding with counterparty risk, not as guaranteed cash.

Is one USDT always worth one US dollar?
That is the goal, and it usually trades very close to one dollar. It has briefly slipped below the peg during market panics and then recovered. “Pegged” means “designed to stay at a dollar”, not “legally fixed at a dollar”.

Is Tether decentralized?
No. Tether Limited issues USDT, controls its supply, and can freeze tokens at specific wallet addresses. It runs on decentralized blockchains, but the token itself is centrally controlled.

Is Tether fully audited?
Not in the strict sense. Tether publishes regular reserve attestations, which are third-party snapshots of the reserves at a point in time. That is more disclosure than some rivals provide, but it is not the same as a continuous independent audit. Know the difference before you rely on the word “transparent”.

How do I buy Tether (USDT)?
Register and verify an account on an exchange that supports USDT, such as Binance or other major exchanges, then buy USDT with fiat currency or by swapping another cryptocurrency. Most people then hold it in an exchange or self-custody wallet rather than redeeming directly with Tether.


Now that you know what Tether is and where its risks sit, how do you use stablecoins in your own setup? Let me know in the comments.

If you want the bigger picture on crypto and DeFi, read the pillar: The Ultimate Guide to Blockchain and Cryptocurrencies.

Want a system, not just another coin to watch? Grab the free 15-Minute Swing Trading Starter Kit. It is the exact routine I use to scan once a day and trade any market in 15 minutes.


About the author. Spencer Li is the founder of Synapse Trading and a Certified Financial Technician (CFTe) with 15+ years of trading across stocks, forex, crypto, commodities, and bonds. His trade log is public: every trade since April 2024, dated, losses left in. He has taught a 15-minute daily trading routine since 2014, one system for any market.

Education, not financial advice. Synapse Trading is not licensed by MAS to advise on investment products. Trading and crypto carry risk of loss; past performance is not indicative of future results.


Related

The Ultimate Guide to Blockchain and Cryptocurrencies (pillar) · What is DeFi and how does it work · Bitcoin vs Ethereum · How to store crypto safely

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