Spencer Li

Weekly Market Wrap: FOMC & NFP This Week!

image first republic and recession 1

For our “Daily Trading Signals”, we have now also included a “Weekly Market Report”, where we provide a weekly deep-dive on the market, including fundamentals, technicals, economics, and portfolio management:

Click here for last week’s market report (24 April 2023)
Click here to subscribe for the latest market report (31 April 2023)
Click here to see the archives of all our past market reports

We cover 3 main markets with a total of 200+ counters, so we will never run out of trading opportunities:

By covering a broad range of markets, we can focus our attention (and capital) on whichever market currently gives the best returns.

Subscribe for real-time alerts and weekly reports:
👉🏻 https://synapsetrading.com/daily-trading-signals

image first republic and recession 1

Market Recap & Upcoming Week

Last week, the potential of generative AI technology to boost revenues for tech giants like Amazon, Microsoft, and Alphabet created a buzz in the market. Despite the growth slowdown in their cloud-computing services, shares of these companies have outperformed the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite. Microsoft’s plans to adopt OpenAI’s ChatGPT technology, Alphabet’s share increase, and Amazon’s AI plans announcement contributed to their stock performance.

On the other hand, Moody’s Investors Service downgraded 11 regional banks, highlighting the increased instability in the banking sector due to higher interest rates and recent bank failures. This exposed weaknesses among regional banks and raised concerns over the commercial real estate market.

In the stock market, S&P 500’s trading at 18 times its 12-month forward P/E estimates has led institutions to reduce exposure to economically-sensitive sectors in anticipation of a potential U.S. recession. Insider buying in the financial sector signals optimism, but analysts urge caution as other factors can influence stock performance. As the first quarter US earnings season unfolds with mixed results, hedge funds have increased their net short position in S&P 500 index futures, showing skepticism about Wall Street’s recovery. However, some analysts argue that equities still offer better returns than bonds and have the potential for earnings growth.

This week, as earnings season marches on, investors will keep a close eye on reports from major companies such as Pfizer, Starbucks, Uber Technologies, AMD, Qualcomm, Apple, Royal Dutch Shell, BP, and ConocoPhillips. Additionally, Berkshire Hathaway’s annual shareholders’ meeting in Omaha, Nebraska, will draw attention to Warren Buffett’s insights and investment strategies.

In terms of economic indicators, updates on the labor market will come in the form of the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), ADP’s National Employment Report, and the April nonfarm payrolls report.

In addition, central to financial discussions this week will be the Federal Reserve’s two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, commencing on Tuesday. Market participants will be eager to learn the outcome of Wednesday’s interest rate decision, which is anticipated to be the final rate hike in the current tightening cycle. As these events unfold, investors will be looking for hints on how companies and the economy will navigate the ongoing challenges posed by inflation, interest rates, and potential slowdowns in growth.

 

Daily Trading Signals (Highlights)

AUDCHF 280423

AUDCHF – Following up, it has hit the first TP with 170+ pips profit! 💰🔥💪🏻

Since price action is still bearish, can consider closing half and letting the other half trail.

 

EURAUD 280423

EURAUD – Our TP for this has hit with 630+ pips total profit. Congrats to those who took this trade! 💰🔥💪🏻

Price momentum is still strong, so if you want to leave a small position to run you can do so as well.

 

Trading Signals GBPCAD 250423

GBPCAD – Prices resuming upward move, let’s see how far it can go!

 

Trading Signals GPBUSD 280423

GPBUSD – Following up, prices are starting to head up after consolidating for the past month or so.

 

Trading Signals US30 260423

Dow Jones Index (US30) – Good low risk high reward shorting opportunity near the top of the price channel.

 

Trading Signals WTICOUSD 280423

Crude Oil (WTICOUSD) – Since it failed to hold new highs, prices might come back to test the bottom of the range.

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Spencer Li

Weekly Market Wrap: Mixed Results for Banks Earnings, Tech Next

pexels expect best 351264

For our “Daily Trading Signals”, we have now also included a “Weekly Market Report”, where we provide a weekly deep-dive on the market, including fundamentals, technicals, economics, and portfolio management:

Click here for last week’s market report (17 April 2023)
Click here to subscribe for the latest market report (24 April 2023)
Click here to see the archives of all our past market reports

We cover 3 main markets with a total of 200+ counters, so we will never run out of trading opportunities:

By covering a broad range of markets, we can focus our attention (and capital) on whichever market currently gives the best returns.

Subscribe for real-time alerts and weekly reports:
👉🏻 https://synapsetrading.com/daily-trading-signals

 

pexels expect best 351264

Market Recap & Upcoming Week

Last week, concerns grew about the historical trend of stocks rallying after the Federal Reserve finishes raising interest rates, as earnings growth falters and stocks look expensive relative to history. Elevated inflation may continue to weigh on earnings in the coming quarters.

Microsoft’s Bing is challenging Google in the lucrative search market, raising the cost of retaining this business. This comes as global online advertising is in a slump, and traffic acquisition costs (TAC) reached nearly $49 billion last year.

Tesla’s operating margin declined due to aggressive price cuts and inflation in materials.

The Walt Disney Company is expected to lay off thousands of employees starting next week as part of its cost-cutting initiatives. Economists are predicting a recession later this year as the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, which businesses and consumers haven’t experienced in 15 years.

In other news, Goldman Sachs reported an 18% decrease in first-quarter profit, while Morgan Stanley saw a 19% drop in Q1 profit due to a slowdown in deal-making.

Meanwhile, China surprised economists with strong 4.5% growth in the first quarter despite its housing market crash and a conservative monetary stance.

This week, investors should closely monitor the earnings reports from major tech companies, including Apple, Amazon, Google parent Alphabet, Microsoft, and Meta Platforms, as well as other noteworthy companies like Coca-Cola Company, McDonald’s, Visa, Mastercard, and ExxonMobil, among others.

These reports will provide valuable insights into the performance and future prospects of these industry giants.

Additionally, keep an eye on the Case-Shiller National Home Price Index for February, new and pending home sales for March, and the BEA’s advance estimate for the first-quarter GDP to get a clearer picture of the current state of the economy.

Furthermore, don’t miss the key update on inflation with the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index—the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge—for March. This indicator will help assess the extent of inflationary pressures in the economy and potentially influence the Fed’s monetary policy decisions.

Daily Trading Signals (Highlights)

Trading Signals CADCHF 210423

CADCHF – Congrats on hitting the first TP! 💰🔥💪🏻

High chance of another leg down, so can close half and use a trailing SL.

 

Trading Signals NZDCHF 210423

NZDCHF – Prices have fallen to support, and hit the profit target for 287 pips profit! Congrats to those who took this trade! 💰🔥💪🏻

 

Trading Signals CADJPY 210423

CADJPY – A potential range trading opportunity.

 

Trading Signals AUDCHF 210423

NASDAQ 100 (US100) – Stocks have been very flat the past 3 weeks, with the trading range here of only roughly 3% from top to bottom.

In addition, the last 5 bar bodies are super tiny and with long shadows, suggesting much indecision.

Will need to wait for a breakout of the range before any trades can be taken.

 

Trading Signals US100 200423

NASDAQ 100 (US100) – Stocks have been very flat the past 3 weeks, with the trading range here of only roughly 3% from top to bottom.

In addition, the last 5 bar bodies are super tiny and with long shadows, suggesting much indecision.

Will need to wait for a breakout of the range before any trades can be taken.

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Spencer Li

Weekly Market Wrap: Ethereum (ETH) Breaks Above $2000!

Neuschwanstein Castle German

For our “Daily Trading Signals”, we have now also included a “Weekly Market Report”, where we provide a weekly deep-dive on the market, including fundamentals, technicals, economics, and portfolio management:

Click here for our most recent market report (10 April 2023)
Click here to see the archives of all our past market reports

We cover 3 main markets with a total of 200+ counters, so we will never run out of trading opportunities:

By covering a broad range of markets, we can focus our attention (and capital) on whichever market currently gives the best returns.

Subscribe for real-time alerts and weekly reports:
👉🏻 https://synapsetrading.com/daily-trading-signals

 

Neuschwanstein Castle German

[Photo: Neuschwanstein Castle, Schwangau, Germany – See my full travel photo log from trading & travelling!]

Market Recap & Upcoming Week

Last week, the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average experienced fluctuations as inflation in March dropped to its lowest level in almost two years, increasing optimism among investors. The March CPI report showed falling energy prices, rising services prices, and a slowdown in food inflation. Investors should keep an eye on durable goods prices as their increase could signal more challenges for inflation.

Gold prices surged to their highest level of the year, reflecting a 13% increase year to date. Despite slowing inflation data, investors anticipate the Federal Reserve scaling back its rate-hiking campaign due to concerns about economic weakness. Used vehicle prices, which spiked in 2020-2021, started to drop in early 2022, but the not-seasonally-adjusted CPI for used vehicles increased by 1.0% in March, suggesting the drop in used vehicle CPI may be over.

Ethereum (ETH) broke to news highs, and the Shapella Upgrade successfully boosted the price of ETH, even though it enabled withdrawals from the Beacon Chain. Staking inflows have risen for four consecutive days, reflecting bullish sentiment towards Ethereum after its shift to a Proof-of-Stake protocol.

Singapore’s economy grew by a mere 0.1% year-on-year in Q1 2023 due to a decline in manufacturing, and the country risks entering a technical recession if growth continues to slow in Q2 2023. JPMorgan, Citi, Wells Fargo, and PNC Financial reported their results, with mixed outcomes for their stocks.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) warned of a larger deficit in the oil market due to surprise production cuts from OPEC’s leading members, which could send crude prices higher and worsen inflation.

In the upcoming week, earnings season will be in full swing, with reports from major companies such as Johnson & Johnson, Bank of America, Netflix, Lockheed Martin, Tesla, Morgan Stanley, IBM, American Express, and Procter & Gamble. Updates on the housing market, inflation readings from the U.K., eurozone, and Japan, and Q1 GDP figures from China will also become available.

Daily Trading Signals 

Here are some of the real-time signals and price alerts that were triggered during the week. There were a lot of profitable forex trades, but the biggest profits came from our trade on Ethereum, which has been up by more than 20%!

 

Trading Signals ETHUSD 140423

Ethereum (ETHUSD) – Short-term momentum is still very strong, as prices blew past $2,000.

Congrats to all those who took this trade! 💰🔥💪🏻

Can consider taking half profits and continue riding the uptrend.

 

TP hit ETHUSD

Actually will probably go to $2k soon, so can wait a while more.

 

Trading Signals BTCUSD 140423

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) – Prices broke out from the symmetrical triangle, and above $30,000, which is an important psychological price level.

Looks like it will continue going higher.

 

Trading Signals USDCHF 140423

USDCHF – Congrats to those who took this trade, I did not expect the TP to be hit that fast! 💰🔥💪🏻

There is strong support around 0.88, so you might want to consider taking half profits and trailing the rest.

 

Trading Signals USDSGD 140423

USDSGD – Now that prices have broke down from the bear flag, I won’t be surprised if the prior low gets tested.

 

Trading Signals US30 120423
Dow Jones Index (US30) – Long shadows near the trendlines have so far led to price rejections and price moving to the opposite side of the price channel.

 

Trading Signals CHFJPY 140423

CHFJPY – Prices breaking out from a period of consolidation.

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Spencer Li

Weekly Market Wrap: Upcoming Earnings Season & Inflation Data!

zion national park 1 1030x709 1

The upcoming week will see the beginning of the earnings season, with reports from major banks and financial institutions, including JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, BlackRock, and PNC Financial Services. Earnings for S&P 500 companies are projected to fall by 6.6%, marking the largest quarterly decline since Q2 2020.

The Federal Reserve will release meeting minutes from its most recent policy meeting on Wednesday, and markets will be watching closely on the tone and words used, to provide guidance for future rate policy direction.

Inflation reports for March will be released, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) scheduled for Wednesday and the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Thursday. Prices are projected to have risen by 0.3% in March, while year-over-year CPI is expected to be up just over 5%. The PPI is anticipated to remain unchanged from last month, with an annual increase of 3.1%.

The U.S. Census Bureau will report on March retail sales on Friday, providing a key update on consumer spending. Sales are projected to have fallen by 0.4% last month and are expected to rise 4% to 6% this year.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank Spring 2023 annual meetings will begin on Monday in Washington D.C. These events will gather global leaders to discuss issues such as the world economic outlook, poverty eradication, economic development, and aid effectiveness.

 

zion national park 1

[Photo: Zion National Park, USA – See my full travel photo log!]

 

For our weekly market wrap, we go through some of the trade calls and analysis from last week, which gives us valuable insights for the week ahead.

We cover 3 main markets with a total of 200+ counters, so we will never run out of trading opportunities:

By covering a broad range of markets, we can focus our attention (and capital) on whichever market currently gives the best returns.

Click here to receive all these signals in real-time for only $67 a month! You will get several signals a day, and even taking just 1 trade the whole month can easily cover the fee, so what are you waiting for?

 

Weekly Market Outlook Video

Trading Signals Weekly Market Outlook 020423

Weekly Market Outlook (02 April 2023)

📌 Markets seem to be expecting Fed cutting rates in Q3 this year (4 months time)
📌 Stock markets are bullish in the short-run
📌 USD is weakening, while Gold & Crypto (ETH breakout) is gaining strength
📌 GPB is bullish while CAD is bearish
📌 Looking to accumulate long-term bonds (TLT) in my portfolio
📌 Bearish on Crude Oil and Commodities

 

Portfolio Highlights

Trading Signals weekly portfolio 020423

Weekly Portfolio Updates (2 April 2023)

Even though stocks rallied slightly, bonds (TLT) rallied as well, providing a buffer against our short positions.

I also decided to add some commodity (DBC) short positions, since I don’t think this oil rally is sustainable if demand drops.

 

Forex & Commodities Market Highlights

Trading Signals AUDCAD 060423

AUDCAD – Finally the TP is hit, giving a whooping profit of 350+ pips! Congrats to all who took the trade! 💰🔥💪🏻

 

Trading Signals AUDNZD 060423

AUDNZD – Breaking down from range, in line with the downtrend. Probably heading to test prior lows.

 

Trading Signals CADCHF 060423

CADCHF – Following up on this, it is the 2nd time pricing are testing the neckline.

 

Trading Signals EURCAD 060423

EURCAD – Following up on this, and what I said in the video, the pullback after the breakout is a good low-risk entry.

 

Trading Signals GBPCAD 060423

GBPCAD – Great low-risk opportunity for a long trade.

 

Trading Signals WTICOUSD 060423

Crude Oil (WTICOUSD) – Prices spiked up due to production cuts, but the overall trend is still down.

If prices close back down into the price channel, the downtrend is likely to continue.

I am looking for shorting opportunities on this, and commodity ETFs like DBC.

 

Stock & Bond Market Highlights

Trading Signals US100 060423

NASDAQ 100 (US100) – There might be enough momentum to push it to test the prior swing high, but don’t see much more bullish catalysts for it to break above that.

Also seeing some price divergence on the RSI.

 

Trading Signals 3 month relative peformance 020423

3 months relative performance.

 

Trading Signals banks 060423

Top U.S. banks by uninsured deposits.

 

Trading Signals stock indexed performance 040423

 

 

Crypto Market Highlights

Trading Signals ETHUSD 060423

Ethereum (ETHUSD) – Breakout of small ascending triangle, looking to gun for $2000. 🚀

 

 

Click here to receive all these signals in real-time for only $67 a month! You will get several signals a day, and even taking just 1 trade the whole month can easily cover the fee, so what are you waiting for?

 

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Spencer Li

A Day in the Life of a Trader

,
Thumbnail A day in the life of a trader

Are you curious about what it’s like to be a trader? I know I was when I first started out. The fast-paced, ever-changing markets were daunting, but also incredibly exciting. 

As a trader, I rely on a wide range of tools and technologies to stay informed and make informed trading decisions. From trading platforms to charting software and high-speed data feeds, each tool plays a critical role in helping me navigate the markets.

And when it comes to strategies and techniques, there are so many different approaches to choose from. Whether it’s technical analysis, fundamental analysis, or news trading, every trader has their own style and preference. It’s all about finding what works for you and sticking to it.

In this video collaboration with XM Global brokerage, I’ll take you through a day in the life of a trader, from pre-market preparation to end-of-day analysis, and share some useful tools to help in your trading journey.

 

What is the day-to-day schedule of a trader like?

The day-to-day schedule of a trader can vary depending on the type of trading they do and the market they specialize in. 

However, some general activities that traders typically engage in include:

  • Pre-market preparation: Traders usually start their day by reviewing news and market data that may impact their trades. They also analyze their trading strategies and review their portfolio positions.
  • Market open: The first few hours after the market opens are typically the busiest for traders. They execute trades based on their analysis and strategy.
  • Monitoring: Throughout the day, traders monitor the markets and track the progress of their trades. They may adjust their positions or exit trades as needed.
  • Research: Traders spend time researching and analyzing market trends and news, as well as studying the performance of different companies and sectors.
  • Networking: Traders often build relationships with other traders and brokers to gain insights and market information that can help inform their trades.
  • End of day analysis: At the end of the day, traders review their performance and analyze their trades to identify areas for improvement.

Overall, the schedule of a trader is fast-paced and can be demanding, requiring a high level of focus, discipline, and adaptability.

What tools and technologies do traders use?

Traders use a wide range of tools and technologies to help them analyze markets, identify trends, and execute trades. 

Some of the most common tools and technologies used by traders include:

  • Trading platforms: These are software applications that allow traders to access financial markets, view real-time prices and charts, and place trades.
  • Charting software: Traders use charting software to create visual representations of price movements and identify patterns in the market.
  • News feeds: Traders rely on news feeds to stay up-to-date with the latest developments in the markets, including economic data releases, corporate announcements, and geopolitical events.
  • Algorithmic trading systems: These are computer programs that execute trades automatically based on pre-set rules and parameters.
  • Risk management software: Traders use risk management software to monitor and control their exposure to market risks, including volatility, liquidity, and counterparty risk.
  • Electronic trading networks: These are online platforms that connect traders with each other and with liquidity providers, allowing them to trade directly with one another without the need for a broker.
  • Mobile trading apps: Traders use mobile trading apps to access the markets and manage their trades from their mobile devices.
  • High-speed data feeds: Traders require real-time market data to make informed trading decisions. High-speed data feeds provide up-to-the-millisecond pricing information that traders use to execute trades.

What are some strategies and techniques used by traders?

There are various strategies and techniques used by traders, and different traders may prefer different methods depending on their personal preferences and risk tolerance. 

Here are some common strategies and techniques:

  • Technical analysis: This involves studying price charts and using technical indicators to identify trends, patterns, and potential trading opportunities.
  • Fundamental analysis: This involves analyzing economic and financial data, such as company earnings reports, economic indicators, and news events, to make trading decisions.
  • Trend following: This involves identifying the direction of a trend and entering trades in the same direction, hoping to ride the trend for profit.
  • Scalping: This involves making numerous trades over a short time frame to take advantage of small price movements.
  • Swing trading: This involves holding positions for a few days or weeks, aiming to capture price movements within a longer-term trend.
  • Position trading: This involves holding positions for several months to a year or more, taking a long-term view on the markets.
  • News trading: This involves taking advantage of market volatility caused by news events, such as interest rate changes, economic data releases, and geopolitical events.
  • Arbitrage: This involves taking advantage of price differences between different markets or assets to make a profit.

Traders may also use various risk management techniques, such as setting stop-loss orders to limit losses, using leverage to amplify gains, and diversifying their portfolio to reduce risk.

My trading journey and challenges

My trading journey has been a rollercoaster ride, filled with ups and downs. When I first started trading, I was filled with excitement and optimism. I was eager to learn and I spent countless hours reading books, attending seminars, and watching educational videos. However, as I started trading with real money, I quickly realized that things were not as easy as they seemed.

One of the biggest challenges I faced was my emotions. I found it difficult to stay disciplined and stick to my trading plan. I would often get too caught up in the moment and make impulsive decisions, which led to losses. It took a lot of self-reflection and practice to develop the mental fortitude required to be a successful trader.

Another challenge I faced was finding a reliable trading strategy that worked for me. I tried out several different approaches, from day trading to swing trading, but I struggled to find a consistent method that produced the results I was looking for. It wasn’t until I discovered price action trading that I finally found a strategy that resonated with me.

Despite the challenges, I persisted in my trading journey, and over time I learned to manage my emotions and stick to my trading plan. I also became more confident in my trading abilities as I saw my profits grow. Looking back on my journey, I am proud of the progress I have made and the lessons I have learned. Trading is not easy, but with the right mindset and approach, it is possible to succeed.

Looking for a professional trading platform to give you an edge? 

XM Global is a leading brokerage company that is dedicated to providing traders with a seamless and efficient trading experience, providing access to more than 50 currency pairs. As a trusted platform for many traders, XM is committed to helping traders improve their skills and succeed in the trading world.

To further assist traders in their trading journey, XM provides ongoing EN Live Education sessions with experts and global instructors around the world. They have 2 rooms, one for beginners and one for advanced traders, and both rooms are live everyday from 3PM – 12 AM SGT to cover a wide variety of topics to help traders improve their trading. These live education sessions are also a great opportunity for traders to learn valuable insights and strategies that can help them achieve their trading goals.

For traders looking for a reliable and trusted trading platform, XM is the ideal choice. Sign up now using the link below to join their EN Live Education and learn from some of the well-known experts in the industry.

Schedule: Monday – Friday (3PM – 12AM SGT)

Refer here for more information: https://www.xm.com/english-education-schedule 

Concluding Thoughts

In summary, trading is not without its challenges. It can be difficult to stay disciplined and stick to your trading plan when the markets are constantly in flux. And finding a reliable trading strategy that works for you is easier said than done.

But despite the challenges, being a trader is incredibly rewarding. I’ve learned so much over the years and have seen my profits grow as I become more confident in my trading abilities. 

Now that I have shared all about the daily life of a  trader, is this something that you would consider doing full time?

Also, for those who are actively trading, what are some challenges you face in your trading?

Let me know in the comments below.

If you are keen on any partnerships or sponsored content, check out:
🤝 https://synapsetrading.com/?p=28772

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