Silicon Valley Bank’s recent troubles have highlighted the risks posed by exposure to mortgage-backed securities. The bank purchased over $80 billion of these securities with deposits, but as interest rates rose, the value of the securities plummeted. The bank recently announced it had sold $21 billion of its Available For Sale securities at a $1.8 billion loss, sparking a wider selloff of banking stocks.

The failure of Silicon Valley Bank could impact the US Federal Reserve’s ability to raise interest rates and withdraw stimulus measures. The failure of a major bank could cause the Fed to rethink its policy, potentially preventing a recession. However, other experts warn that the failure of the bank could have broader implications for the US economy, with potential knock-on effects for businesses and entrepreneurs.

The Japanese yen is expected to continue to depreciate against the US dollar in the coming months. This is due to the expectation of continued divergence in monetary policy between the Bank of Japan and the US Federal Reserve.

Oil prices remain largely unchanged, with concerns over interest rate hikes dampening sentiment. The Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates, which could reduce demand for oil and lower prices. Despite this, prices remain supported by ongoing supply cuts by OPEC and its allies.

The upcoming week is expected to be critical for economic data, with a number of key reports scheduled for release. These include CPI, retail sales, industrial production, and housing starts. Analysts will be closely watching these figures to assess the health of the economy and to gauge the likelihood of a recession. The Federal Reserve’s rate decision on March 15 will also be closely watched, with expectations of further rate hikes.

Stay tuned for more real-time updates and trading opportunities in our “Daily Trading Signals” Telegram channel!

[Photo: Lake Aydarkul, Uzbekistan – See my full travel photo log!]

For our weekly market wrap, we go through some of the trade calls and analysis from last week, which gives us valuable insights for the week ahead.

We cover 3 main markets with a total of 200+ counters, so we will never run out of trading opportunities:

• Forex, CFDs, commodities, bonds
• US stocks, ETFs, global stock indices
• Cryptocurrencies, crypto indices

By covering a broad range of markets, we can focus our attention (and capital) on whichever market currently gives the best returns.

Click here to receive all these signals in real-time for only $67 a month! You will get several signals a day, and even taking just 1 trade the whole month can easily cover the fee, so what are you waiting for?

Weekly Market Outlook Video

Weekly Portfolio Updates (05 March 2023)

📌 Not much changes from last week
📌 Some of the T-bills will be expiring this or next month, so will be rolling them over into new 6-month positions at 5+%

Portfolio Highlights

Weekly Market Outlook (05 March 2023)

📌 USD remains strong
📌 Weakness on AUD & NZD
📌 Equities & crypto mixed
📌 NFP and FOMC coming up

Forex & Commodities Market Highlights

AUDCHF – Following up on this trade, we managed to catch the top and get a good entry, and now it is 200+ pips in the money!

Congrats to those who took this trade! 💰🔥💪🏻

AUDUSD – Following up on this short trade, it is 200+ pips in profit, and looks like it can fall a bit more.

Congrats to those who took this trade! 💰🔥💪🏻

USDSGD – Following up on this, the consolidation was a pennant chart pattern, which indicates a second leg of close to equal proportion to the first leg.

Yesterday, we saw a strong breakout of the pennant, with a potential target of 1.3800.

For those who have been long since the bottom, congrats on the rough 4% capital appreciation! 💰🔥💪🏻

NZDCHF – After retracing to test the breakout neckline, it is now giving us another great shorting opportunity.

NZDUSD – After breaking the support level, it went on to test the support-turned-resistance level, and is now poised to head downwards.

Great low-risk shorting opportunity.

Stock & Bond Market Highlights

NASDAQ 100 (US100) – After several bullish pin-bars, there is some bullish short-term price action (maybe profit-taking?), so we might see a rebound to test the support-turned-resistance level.

Wil watch out at the red circled zone next week.

China tech stocks (3067) – Following up on this, after the decline to support and the bounce, we are expecting another leg down.

We are looking for a potential buying zone for the long-term bull trend, and I have circled that zone.

We will see what happens once price reaches that zone. Stay tuned!

Cos on Twitter some people will be very bullish, some will be very bearish, so good to see both sides what the reasons are.

Total delinquent consumer loans in the United States.

Fed tightening cycles always “break” something.

For the first time in a long time, fixed income is more attractive than stocks. 🤩

Short-term US Treasurys climbed to new milestones after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that the central bank would likely raise interest rates higher than previously expected and was ready to accelerate the pace of rate increases if necessary.

The yield on the two-year Treasury note had settled at 5.011%, up from 4.892% Monday, and marked its first close above 5% since June 2007.

Traders’ immediate focus is the central bank’s next rate-setting meeting, which wraps up two weeks from Wednesday.

Bets in futures markets now reflect roughly two-thirds odds of a half-point move at the coming meeting, up from about one-thirds odds a day earlier.

Crypto Market Highlights

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) and Ethereum (ETHUSD) – After the testing the previous swing high, they did not manage to break through, but they could be building strength to try again.

You can either accumulate some near the minor support level, or wait for prices to break the prior swing high before going long.

Click here to receive all these signals in real-time for only $67 a month! You will get several signals a day, and even taking just 1 trade the whole month can easily cover the fee, so what are you waiting for?

Good luck, and may next week bring more excellent profits!

Global markets had a mixed week, as concerns over rising interest rates and inflation continued to weigh on investor sentiment.

Gold prices edged up as the dollar weakened due to rate hike worries, capping off a choppy trading week for the precious metal. The price of gold has been volatile in recent weeks as investors weigh the impact of rising interest rates and inflation on its value.

Meanwhile, the US dollar was steady as investors evaluated the Federal Reserve’s outlook for higher-for-longer interest rates. The yen saw increased volatility as traders digested mixed economic data from Japan.

Oil prices gained on Russian supply cut worries, while higher US inventories weighed on prices. Crude prices rebounded after a six-day losing streak as market participants watched geopolitical tensions and supply cuts.

In Asia, equities were mixed, with US rate hike worries still weighing on the markets. Japan’s Nikkei 225 index closed higher, while China’s Shanghai Composite fell.

Overall, markets continue to face uncertainty over the direction of interest rates and inflation, as well as geopolitical risks, which are likely to lead to volatility in the short term.

Thankfully, over the past week, we have been holding large USDSGD long positions and large short positions on the US stock market, which gave us double gains for our portfolio.

For more market updates and real-time trading opportunities, join our private “Daily Trading Signals” Telegram channel!

[Photo: Charyn Canyon, Kazakhstan – See my full travel photo log!]

For our weekly market wrap, we go through some of the trade calls and analysis from last week, which gives us valuable insights for the week ahead.

We cover 3 main markets with a total of 200+ counters, so we will never run out of trading opportunities:

• Forex, CFDs, commodities, bonds
• US stocks, ETFs, global stock indices
• Cryptocurrencies, crypto indices

By covering a broad range of markets, we can focus our attention (and capital) on whichever market currently gives the best returns.

Click here to receive all these signals in real-time for only $67 a month! You will get several signals a day, and even taking just 1 trade the whole month can easily cover the fee, so what are you waiting for?

Weekly Market Outlook Video

Weekly Market Outlook (19 February 2023)

📌 CPI rose 0.5% in January on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.1 percent in December.
📌 Retail sales increase 3.0% in January
📌 Core retail sales rise 1.7%; December data unrevised
📌 Manufacturing production rebounds 1.0%
📌 Current Fed rates are 4.50% to 4.75%, 80% chance of 4.75% to 5.00% in next FOMC meeting
📌 Risk-off mode again?

Portfolio Highlights

Weekly Portfolio Updates (19 February 2023)

📌 Added a bit more T-bills at 5%
📌 Took profit on US tech stocks and REIT shorts
📌 Added a bit more short positions to stocks

Forex & Commodities Market Highlights

USDSGD – Congrats on the 300+ pips profit riding this wave up! 💰🔥💪🏻

Now that it has run into strong resistance, it is a good idea to take half or some profits, and trail the rest.

GBPJPY – As mentioned in the video, this counter is in a long-term uptrend channel, and more recently broke out from an ascending triangle.

Stock & Bond Market Highlights

China tech stocks (3067) – After a strong run-up, we can expect a pullback to support, which may be a good buying opportunity to get onto the long-term trend.

NASDAQ 100 (US100) – Currently consolidating at a crucial point, if it breaks lower bulls will give up and bears will jump in again.

If it breaks higher, then bears will wait at the prior swing high (around 13750) to mount another challenge.

Watching this today to see if it breaks to the downside and triggers the price alert.

NASDAQ 100 (US100) – Looking at the 4 hour chart, it has a nice pullback to the breakout neckline. Good chance to add more short positions.

Investors have been hoping for a “soft landing” for the US economy, but the recent spate of strong economic data has worried some that it might not happen.

The fear is that the US economy will continue to heat up, forcing the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates higher than expected for longer, increasing the chances of a sharp downturn that would hit the markets hard. Investors had been hoping that the Fed would be able to rein in inflation without tipping the economy into recession.

The recent strength of the data has led analysts to increase their forecasts for the peak federal-funds rate to around 5.25%, with some warning that such an increase would increase the likelihood of a recession, which the S&P 500 tends to decline in such scenarios.

Crypto Market Highlights

Ethereum (ETHUSD) – Can consider taking a long position with a tight stop, with a potential upside of 15-20% to test the prior swing high.

After a series of high-profile collapses in 2022, cryptocurrencies faced a tough year. However, things may be looking up in 2023 as Bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies have started to rise, suggesting that the dreaded “crypto winter” could be thawing.

Analysts believe that favourable market conditions and the US Federal Reserve slowing its pace of interest rate hikes could be contributing to this rise. Additionally, the upcoming Bitcoin halving event in 2024 could help lift the prices of Bitcoin out of the doldrums, according to historical data.

Furthermore, the development of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) could give digital assets more credibility. While cryptocurrencies remain volatile, they could continue to be used as a digital currency for transactions in the digital space.

Click here to receive all these signals in real-time for only $67 a month! You will get several signals a day, and even taking just 1 trade the whole month can easily cover the fee, so what are you waiting for?