Garden Route South Africa

Although there was a short-term bullish rebound in the markets from the UK tax cut reversal, the impact was short-lived, and in fact it provided us a good shorting opportunity to enter at better prices on the rebound.

The long-term trend is still bullish, and as I just shared in the private signals group, until our leading indicator flashes a reversal signal, I won’t be expecting a reversal in the stock market any time soon.

Our current new short positions are already in the money, so we will continue riding and managing these positions for next week as well.

There are some good trading opportunities to sell various currencies against the US dollar, since it is expected that the USD will continue heading up.

At this point in the market, the main drivers of price are the CPI, NFP and FOMC data, so try to focus on these and filter out the noise in the market. Observe these data releases together with price action and chart patterns, and it will give clues to the market direction.

As per usual, I will be posting updates and trading opportunities in our Daily Trading Signals Telegram channel, so do join us if you are an active trader, or looking to time the market better!

 

Garden Route South Africa

[Photo: Garden Route, South Africa – See my full travel photo log!]

For our weekly market wrap, we go through some of the trade calls and analysis from last week, which gives us valuable insights for the week ahead.

We cover 3 main markets with a total of 200+ counters, so we will never run out of trading opportunities:

By covering a broad range of markets, we can focus our attention (and capital) on whichever market currently gives the best returns.

Click here to receive all these signals in real-time for only $67 a month! You will get several signals a day, and even taking just 1 trade the whole month can easily cover the fee, so what are you waiting for? Trading Signals Commodity 050322 emoji

 

Weekly Market Outlook Video

Trading Signals Weekly Market outlook 181022 1

Weekly Market Outlook (18 October 2022)
? Next rate hike in about 25 days
? UK reverses tax cuts, short-term bullish for risk assets
? Long-term bearish for stocks, crypto, REITs, commods, etc.
? Long-term bullish for USD, but short-term bearish

 

Portfolio Highlights

Trading Signals Portfolio 171022

Weekly Portfolio Update (17 October 2022)

Added more T-bills since yields are now about 4%, meaning I can make a risk-free gain for the next 6 months, while conserving my capital for the big crash.

At this point, it is a very defensive portfolio.

Holding small amounts of various short positions, since the prevailing major trend is bearish. Will close and take profits if the market rebounds against those positions.

 

Forex & Commodities Market Highlights

Trading Signals Forex Exposure 171022

Weekly Forex Exposure (17 October 2022)

For the past few weeks, I have been mainly rotating between USD and SGD to maximise gains for my portfolio (since my living expenses are in SGD where I live, but if you live elsewhere, then you can rotate it between your local currency).

Since USD has weakened slightly, I have reduced my exposure to it, but I am expecting the USD bull trend to continue at some point, so I am always monitoring to rotate back to a 80% USD exposure.

 

Trading Signals AUDNZD 181022

The AUDNZD has broke down from its trendline, and it is likely to be bearish/sideways. Look for small consolidations to initiate short positions.

 

Trading Signals EURCHF 181022

Potential bullish reversal for the EURCHF if the inverse H&S pattern completes and price manages to break the neckline.

I have placed a price alert so that we will know the moment it happens.

 

Trading Signals EURJPY 181022

Bullish H&S continuation pattern on the EURJPY, making it a good opportunity to long on any pullbacks or on smaller timeframes.

 

Trading Signals GBPCAD 181022

The GBPCAD recently broke the bearish trendline, as it turned up from a very oversold position.

Short/medium-term price action is strong, so I will not be surprised if it manages to head up to test the next resistance level.

 

Trading Signals USDSGD 191022

After a 1-month ABC correction, the USDSGD might start to resume its uptrend. I have rotated more of my SGD into USD to prepare for this.

 

Stock & Bond Market Highlights

Trading Signals US100 191022

If the NASDAQ 100 (US100) is unable to clear this zone and stay above it, then there is a good chance we will see more downside.

 

Trading Signals China Stocks 201022

Same for general China stocks (2801), which is down about 60% from all-time highs.

 

Trading Signals China Tech Stocks 201022

China tech stocks (3067) are still in free fall, after breaking down from a recent bear flag. Currently down about 72% from all-time highs.

 

Trading Signals Inflation 191022

Worldwide Inflation

 

Trading Signals ARKK news 141022

 

Trading Signals treasury yields 141022

 

Trading Signals US interest rates 141022

 

 

Click here to receive all these signals in real-time for only $67 a month! You will get several signals a day, and even taking just 1 trade the whole month can easily cover the fee, so what are you waiting for? Trading Signals Commodity 050322 emoji

Good luck, and may next week bring more excellent profits!

2022 09 05 18 57 18

Last week, all eyes were on the CPI (Consumer Price Index) data, because if inflation does not slow down, it suggests that the measures taken so far are insufficient, then there is a high chance that the Fed will continue raising rates more aggressively (which is bad for markets).

As markets drifted downwards, we continued to manage our shorts, and take profits on our open positions. I also advised to rotate out of USD to SGD, since there might be a weakening of USD.

Surprisingly, even though the CPI was much higher than expected, prices behaved erratically, by first plunging, then recovering and closing up. Thus it is possible that markets have been oversold and much has been priced in.

Now, how should we approach such a market, especially ahead of the rate hikes coming in about 2-3 weeks?

Stayed tuned for my Weekly Market Outlook video in the Daily Trading Signals Telegram channel!

2022 09 05 18 57 18

[Photo: Yurt Camping, Kyrgyzstan – See my full travel photo log!]

For our weekly market wrap, we go through some of the trade calls and analysis from last week, which gives us valuable insights for the week ahead.

We cover 3 main markets with a total of 200+ counters, so we will never run out of trading opportunities:

By covering a broad range of markets, we can focus our attention (and capital) on whichever market currently gives the best returns.

Click here to receive all these signals in real-time for only $67 a month! You will get several signals a day, and even taking just 1 trade the whole month can easily cover the fee, so what are you waiting for? Trading Signals Commodity 050322 emoji

 

Weekly Market Outlook Video

Trading Signals Weekly Market Outlook 101022

Weekly Market Outlook (10 October 2022)
? More rate hikes coming on 2nd Nov? CPI release on 13 October.
? Long-term bearish for stocks, crypto, REITs, commods, etc. Slightly in the money now, continue to add more short positions on pullbacks.
? Long-term bullish for USD

 

Portfolio Highlights

Trading Signals Portfolio 111022

Weekly Portfolio Update (11 October 2022)

Reinstated short positions on stocks, crypto, REITs. Bought some short-term fixed income products to generate yield in the short/medium-term while waiting for buying opportunities.

 

Forex & Commodities Market Highlights

Trading Signals Forex Exposure 111022

Weekly Forex Exposure (11 October 2022)

Most exposure is in USD, with the rest in SGD, and short positions on EUR.

 

Trading Signals NZDUSD 131022

NZD is weak against the USD, and NZDUSD has formed a bear flag and is continuing to head downwards.

 

Trading Signals AUDUSD 131022

A similar pattern is seen on the AUDUSD, where a bear flag is formed and prices continue to fall. Great for shorting on any pullbacks.

 

Trading Signals USDSGD 131022

MAS might take steps to strengthen the SGD, which will cause the USDSGD to fall.

Technicals-wise, there is strong resistance at the 1.44 level, with price getting rejected twice at that level.

The RSI is also turning down from an overbought region.

There might be a correction, so I am reducing my USD exposure.

 

Trading Signals XAUUSD 131022

Gold (XAUUSD) continues to be bearish, as the Fed continues to hike rates to push inflation down. Gold is a leading indicator of inflation.

 

Trading Signals Oil News 131022

Could this be a bullish catalyst for oil? https://www.newtraderu.com/2022/10/12/the-worst-oil-crisis-in-40-years-has-started/

 

Stock & Bond Market Highlights

Trading Signals Global inflation 081022

Global Inflation Rates

 

Trading Signals how to buy T bills 131022

? Simple guide for those who have been asking me how to buy T-bills for 4% yield. (You might want to bookmark it.)

(Check out the full guide in our Daily Trading Signals Telegram channel.

 

Trading Signals Dow News 081022

‘It’s the interest-rate outlook determining the equity market, and the key to the interest-rate outlook is the labor market.’

https://www.wsj.com/articles/global-stocks-markets-dow-update-10-07-2022-11665139154

 

Trading Signals Stock News 101022

More bad earnings to come? https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-jittery-stock-market-heads-into-earnings-season-11665258248

 

Trading Signals Stock prices 121022

 

Crypto Market Highlights

Trading Signals ETHUSD 131022

After a long wait on my shorts, Ethereum (ETHUSD) is finally breaking down! ?

 

Click here to receive all these signals in real-time for only $67 a month! You will get several signals a day, and even taking just 1 trade the whole month can easily cover the fee, so what are you waiting for? Trading Signals Commodity 050322 emoji

Good luck, and may next week bring more excellent profits!

Patungan Cavite Philippines

Last week, we saw a sharp rebound in all markets (stocks, bonds, crypto, REITs, etc), which was not unexpected given how oversold most markets were.

That is why we decided to cash out by closing all positions and taking profits. This includes my high 6-figure USD/SGD long positions.

The plan was to wait for the rebound to be over before entering all the same positions again, which happened in the later part of the week.

This week, we have already positioned ourselves for the market, and the major news of the week will be the CPI report coming out on 13 October.

No doubt September was one of our best trading months, with many traders making 10-15% profits on their portfolios, but if the market continues falling, I won’t be surprised if we exceed that record in the next 2 months.

If you want to join us in swing trading the market with 15 minutes a day, join our Daily Trading Signals Telegram channel. See you on the inside!

 

Patungan Cavite Philippines

[Photo: Patungan, Cavite, Philippines – See my full travel photo log!]

For our weekly market wrap, we go through some of the trade calls and analysis from last week, which gives us valuable insights for the week ahead.

We cover 3 main markets with a total of 200+ counters, so we will never run out of trading opportunities:

By covering a broad range of markets, we can focus our attention (and capital) on whichever market currently gives the best returns.

Click here to receive all these signals in real-time for only $67 a month! You will get several signals a day, and even taking just 1 trade the whole month can easily cover the fee, so what are you waiting for? Trading Signals Commodity 050322 emoji

 

Weekly Market Outlook Video

Trading Signals Weekly market outlook 031022

Weekly Market Outlook (3 October 2022)
? Long-term bearish for stocks, crypto, REITs, commods, etc. Deeply in the money now, but closed all positions as market feels a bit too climatic.
? Credit Suisse and Deutsche Bank may face liquidity issues – will this drag down the bond and stock markets?
? Long-term bullish for USD

 

Portfolio Highlights

Trading Signals Portfolio 041022

Weekly Portfolio Update (3 October 2022)

Playing defensive this week, and waiting for better trading opportunities. Closed most positions and rotated all USD to SGD.

 

Forex & Commodities Market Highlights

Trading Signals EURUSD 061022

1.000 parity level has now become a support-turned-resistance level for the EURUSD. Will be expecting it to continue falling when USD resumes the uptrend.

 

Trading Signals USDSGD 061022

After cashing out on my USD near this cluster of pinbars, I am waiting for USDSGD to fall to the previous support level to re-enter.

I have placed some price alerts near the area, so we will know immediately when that happens. Stay tuned!

 

Trading Signals UK news 021022

https://www.wsj.com/articles/britains-financial-disaster-is-a-warning-to-the-world-11664596851

 

Stock & Bond Market Highlights

Trading Signals investor banks 031022

 

Trading Signals Markets 051022

Why are markets so sensitive to data that would normally be regarded as merely an imprecise guide to the economy, to be taken in the context of other reports? Here are three theories:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/markets-are-stuck-in-overreaction-mode-11664894767

 

Trading Signals T bills 031022

https://www.wsj.com/articles/battered-investors-now-find-thrills-in-t-bills-11664676704

 

Trading Signals NASDAQ100 061022

After taking profit on our shorts near the exact bottom, the NASDAQ 100 (US100) is now having a dead cat bounce.

I am waiting for price action to turn bearish again so I can short. This might happen near the 50-EMA or the top of the bearish trendline.

I have placed price alerts at key levels, so we will know when the time is ripe. Stay tuned!

 

Crypto Market Highlights

Trading Signals ETHUSD 061022

Ethereum (ETHUSD) is still trading in a narrow range, but it is very near the neckline resistance and the 20-EMA.

Based on technicals alone, it is a bearish picture.

 

Click here to receive all these signals in real-time for only $67 a month! You will get several signals a day, and even taking just 1 trade the whole month can easily cover the fee, so what are you waiting for? Trading Signals Commodity 050322 emoji

Good luck, and may next week bring more excellent profits!

Deset Safari Dubai UAE

Last week, we saw the bearish trend continue for stocks, crypto and REITs, as well as the bullish trend for USD.

Since we have been holding these positions for quite a while, and they are all deeply in the money, I have decided to close these positions and take profits.

Some of these positions were also getting a bit overbought/oversold, and some were nearing support/resistance, so I thought it would be a good idea to take profits and stand aside to see if there is any rebound, where we can re-enter the market at a better price.

This month has been one of the most profitable for our portfolio, and there is a good chance that the long-term trends will continue till the end of the year.

Want to know when to re-enter the market?

Join our Daily Trading Signals Telegram channel for real-time market updates and the best trading opportunities!

 

Deset Safari Dubai UAE

[Photo: Desert Safari, Dubai, UAE – See my full travel photo log!]

For our weekly market wrap, we go through some of the trade calls and analysis from last week, which gives us valuable insights for the week ahead.

We cover 3 main markets with a total of 200+ counters, so we will never run out of trading opportunities:

By covering a broad range of markets, we can focus our attention (and capital) on whichever market currently gives the best returns.

Click here to receive all these signals in real-time for only $67 a month! You will get several signals a day, and even taking just 1 trade the whole month can easily cover the fee, so what are you waiting for? Trading Signals Commodity 050322 emoji

 

Weekly Market Outlook Video

Trading Signals Weekly Market Video 240922

Weekly Market Outlook (23 September 2022)
? Rates went up by 0.75% during FOMC on 21 Sept – more rate hikes coming!
? Long-term bearish for stocks, crypto, REITs, commods, etc. Deeply in the money now, continue to add more short positions on pullbacks.
? Long-term bullish for USD

 

Portfolio Highlights

Trading Signals Portfolio 240922

Weekly Portfolio Update (23 September 2022)

Still bearish on stocks, REITs, and crypto, accumulating short positions. Almost all of cash is held in USD since it is the strongest.

Forex & Commodities Market Highlights

Trading Signals USDSGD 240922

Now that the second target for USDSGD has been hit, it might be a good idea to take profits since it is at the top of the large trading range.

 

Trading Signals USDSGD 290922

Following up on USDSGD, it has exhibited 2 bearish pin bars. Likely to have a correction soon.

 

Trading Signals GBPUSD news 240922

Parity with USD next?

https://twitter.com/thestalwart/status/1574203631456292864

 

Stock & Bond Market Highlights

Trading Signals mortgage rates 300922

https://www.wsj.com/articles/mortgage-rates-rise-to-6-7-highest-since-2007-11664460015

 

Trading Signals US100 240922
For those still short on the NASDAQ 100 (US100), might be a good idea to take some profits since prices have dropped a lot in a short period of time, and a rebound is likely.

 

Trading Signals REET 240922

The global REIT ETF (REET) is turning out to be one of my best shorts this year, and I might start to take some profits as the drop is looking a bit too climatic.

 

Trading Signals SP500 News 240922

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/goldman-sachs-cuts-2022-target-091339381.html

 

Crypto Market Highlights

Trading Signals ETHUSD 240922

Looks like a good time to take some shorts on Ethereum (ETHUSD), after prices tested the resistance level and rejected it with a pinbar.

 

 

Click here to receive all these signals in real-time for only $67 a month! You will get several signals a day, and even taking just 1 trade the whole month can easily cover the fee, so what are you waiting for? Trading Signals Commodity 050322 emoji

Good luck, and may next week bring more excellent profits!

Thumbnail What is a Crypto Blockchain 51 Attack

In theory, any miner can choose to conduct a 51% attack on the network, where they control over 50% of the entire blockchain’s mining power and use it to alter transactions in their favor.

How is this possible?

Blockchain technology has made its mark on the world as one of the major technological advancements of our time, with one of its most famous applications being the decentralized cryptocurrency, Bitcoin.

While blockchain has already revolutionized how people exchange money, we are still just scratching the surface when it comes to what this technology can do.

Blockchain works because it is decentralized — no single entity controls the ledger.

But because of this, blockchain is also more vulnerable to attack than centralized ledgers are.

In this blog post, I will explain everything you need to know about a 51% attack on blockchain, what its impact is, and how it can be prevented.

Let’s jump right into it!

Infographic Crypto Blockchain 51 Attack

 

What is a 51% Attack?

A 51% attack occurs when a malicious user in a blockchain network gains the ability to control more than 50% of a given blockchain’s computational power, which lets them mine faster than everyone else on the network.

This gives them an advantage because they can alter data or stop transaction confirmations without having to get any consensus from other users on the network.

Depending on the mining power of the attacker, a 51% attack can often bypass the network’s security protocols.

While blockchains are generally secure, they are not perfect.

For instance, there is no way to guarantee that all of a blockchain’s participants are honest and will not manipulate transactions or data.

With Bitcoin, miners are in charge of adding new blocks to its blockchain and validating transactions.

Because they decide which transactions to validate, they can choose not to include some that their users want validated if it helps them get ahead.

But this isn’t a problem with most cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin and Ethereum, because the computing power needed to attack such a huge established blockchain would be impossibly large.

We only see this type of behavior during so-called penny wars.

These occur when small players try to game the system by spamming large numbers of unimportant transactions to push up the price paid per kilobyte (KB) for mining these low-value transactions.

To combat such attacks, most blockchains also have built-in features and hard fork protocols that enforce changes in their system if necessary.

What is the Impact of a 51% Attack?

If miners get too much hash rate and collectively control more than 50%, they can theoretically form their own consensus and run a different version of the network history, allowing them to spend their money twice and double-spending other people’s transactions.

They would also be able to redirect any transactions they see as undesired by broadcasting one transaction but mining another block.

All these changes could impact end users because they allow an entity with majority mining power to manipulate the blockchain and its rules in ways incompatible with end-user expectations.

This kind of attack is why some people advocate for Segregated Witness (SegWit) or Lightning Network to handle Bitcoin transactions instead of on-chain transactions, as there would not be any need for a lot of hashing power to execute these types of transactions.

A 51% Attack Can Cause Network Disruption

One of the primary Blockchain protocols is referred to as Proof-of-work (PoW), which is used by Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other popular networks.

The PoW protocol essentially maintains that every 10 minutes, there will be new blocks added to a blockchain’s ledger.

For someone in a network to add new blocks to that blockchain, they must guess complex mathematical equations, which are nearly impossible to calculate if you don’t have access to high computing power.

However, in a 51% attack, the attacker can disrupt the entire network by interfering with unconfirmed blocks and transactions.

Cryptocurrency users might lose digital assets or cash due to a 51% attack.

This raises serious concerns about blockchain’s reliability and security among its users and miners.

Is the Damage Permanent?

It is important to note that while these types of malicious actors might be able to disrupt a blockchain and invalidate recent transactions temporarily, they do not necessarily have access to modify past transactions.

So even though it may seem like your money has disappeared forever during one of these attacks, rest assured that it won’t stay gone forever.

For example, if someone transferred Bitcoin to another individual or merchant, it would not be possible for an attacker to reverse that transaction.

They could still prevent future transactions from going through and might even be able to access your funds, but these are two different things entirely.

Once these attacks have ended, you will regain access to your funds.

How Different Is It from a 34% Attack?

A 34% attack is one where an attacker can control most of the network’s mining power, but does not have enough to control more than 50%.

In this instance, the attacker could alter the blockchain’s ledger.

The consequences of a 51% attack are far more severe.

A 51% attack would not stop transactions from happening, but it could severely disrupt blockchain’s peer-to-peer model and open doors for double-spending.

With more than half of all computing power available to an attacker, they could create multiple versions of their own chain to outpace that of a blockchain’s main network.

51% Attacks in Recent Times

a) Grin:

Grin, a blockchain cryptocurrency focused on preserving the privacy of its users, was the currency on the attack where an unknown miner took up 57% of the Grin hash power.

What the attacker intended is still a mystery.

Grin was forced to shut off payouts and urged miners to stop until the issue was fixed.

Grin later re-established the network and added additional measures to prevent the attack from recurring.

b) Vertcoin:

The cryptocurrency Vertcoin has been attacked several times over the past few years.

In one such attack, the attackers wrote their own blocks in place of the Vertcoin genuine blocks.

Vertcoin switched from the original blockchain to a new, more robust PoW system to keep attackers from double spending and getting their hands on users’ hard-earned money.

Moreover, it had to cut off powerful mining chips to keep its mining more community-based.

c) Bitcoin Gold:

Compared to other Bitcoin forks such as SHA-256, Bitcoin Gold (BTG) implements the Equihash consensus algorithm.

The developers intended to achieve decentralization by using GPU mining instead of ASICs.

However, an unknown miner managed to gain access to more than 51% of the overall BTG hash rate in 2018, resulting in heavy losses for the network.

Another 51% attack on BTG occurred in 2020, and the network experienced two reorganizations in two days.

An enormous amount of money was double spent.

There was a suspicion that the BTG network had ASIC mining devices that might have been hidden from the community.

The community then urged the blockchain to implement a more secure algorithm.

d) Ethereum Classic:

In 2020, the ETC blockchain was attacked three times in the same month.

ETC relies on the decentralized proof-of-work (PoW) consensus algorithm, just like Bitcoin, which makes it challenging to avoid or mitigate 51% attacks.

Though these attacks did not significantly affect ETC prices, they reduced users’ trust in the network.

Can a 51% Attack Be Prevented?

Although blockchain is a decentralized database, it is not immune to hacking.

The best way to protect against a 51% attack is to limit the amount of hashing power that any single miner has to 50%.

So no person or organization can control more than 50% of the total network’s mining power.

Another way to prevent a 51% attack is using the Proof of Stake (PoS) consensus mechanism.

PoS makes it more difficult for validators (not miners) to produce blocks and act maliciously because they don’t have an incentive to do so.

Instead, the validator’s stakes are at stake — their investment in the cryptocurrency.

For them to abuse their power, they would have to forfeit their entire stake.

The higher the stakes, the more difficult it becomes for them to act maliciously.

Concluding Thoughts

When blockchain was first introduced, it caused quite a buzz in the financial sector.

Because of its decentralized, trustless nature, this technology has captured everyone’s attention and promises to have a far-reaching impact on many aspects of everyday life.

However, blockchain isn’t infallible, and like any other technology, it has its vulnerabilities and risks that users should be aware of, such as the 51% attack and 34% attack.

Now that I have covered all you need to know about a crypto blockchain 51% attack, are you able to tell which new tokens are at risk of such attacks?

Do you think the upcoming new security protocols will be able to stop such attacks in future?

Let me know in the comments below.

 

thumbnail the ultimate guide to blockchain and crypto assets

If you would like to learn more about crypto & DeFi, also check out: “The Ultimate Guide to Blockchain & Cryptocurrencies”