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Spencer Li

Weekly Market Wrap: Will Banks Runs Cause the Market to Crash Next Week?

Market Analysis
Lake Aydarkul Uzbekistan

Silicon Valley Bank’s recent troubles have highlighted the risks posed by exposure to mortgage-backed securities. The bank purchased over $80 billion of these securities with deposits, but as interest rates rose, the value of the securities plummeted. The bank recently announced it had sold $21 billion of its Available For Sale securities at a $1.8 billion loss, sparking a wider selloff of banking stocks.

The failure of Silicon Valley Bank could impact the US Federal Reserve’s ability to raise interest rates and withdraw stimulus measures. The failure of a major bank could cause the Fed to rethink its policy, potentially preventing a recession. However, other experts warn that the failure of the bank could have broader implications for the US economy, with potential knock-on effects for businesses and entrepreneurs.

The Japanese yen is expected to continue to depreciate against the US dollar in the coming months. This is due to the expectation of continued divergence in monetary policy between the Bank of Japan and the US Federal Reserve.

Oil prices remain largely unchanged, with concerns over interest rate hikes dampening sentiment. The Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates, which could reduce demand for oil and lower prices. Despite this, prices remain supported by ongoing supply cuts by OPEC and its allies.

The upcoming week is expected to be critical for economic data, with a number of key reports scheduled for release. These include CPI, retail sales, industrial production, and housing starts. Analysts will be closely watching these figures to assess the health of the economy and to gauge the likelihood of a recession. The Federal Reserve’s rate decision on March 15 will also be closely watched, with expectations of further rate hikes.

Stay tuned for more real-time updates and trading opportunities in our “Daily Trading Signals” Telegram channel!

 

Lake Aydarkul Uzbekistan

[Photo: Lake Aydarkul, Uzbekistan – See my full travel photo log!]

For our weekly market wrap, we go through some of the trade calls and analysis from last week, which gives us valuable insights for the week ahead.

We cover 3 main markets with a total of 200+ counters, so we will never run out of trading opportunities:

  • Forex, CFDs, commodities, bonds
  • US stocks, ETFs, global stock indices
  • Cryptocurrencies, crypto indices

By covering a broad range of markets, we can focus our attention (and capital) on whichever market currently gives the best returns.

Click here to receive all these signals in real-time for only $67 a month! You will get several signals a day, and even taking just 1 trade the whole month can easily cover the fee, so what are you waiting for?

 

Weekly Market Outlook Video

Trading Sigals weekly portfolio updates 040323

Weekly Portfolio Updates (05 March 2023)

📌 Not much changes from last week
📌 Some of the T-bills will be expiring this or next month, so will be rolling them over into new 6-month positions at 5+%

 

Portfolio Highlights

Trading Signals Weekly market outlook 040323 1

Weekly Market Outlook (05 March 2023)

📌 USD remains strong
📌 Weakness on AUD & NZD
📌 Equities & crypto mixed
📌 NFP and FOMC coming up

 

Forex & Commodities Market Highlights

Trading Signals AUDCHF 040323

AUDCHF – Following up on this trade, we managed to catch the top and get a good entry, and now it is 200+ pips in the money!

Congrats to those who took this trade! 💰🔥💪🏻

 

Trading Signals AUDUSD 040323

AUDUSD – Following up on this short trade, it is 200+ pips in profit, and looks like it can fall a bit more.

Congrats to those who took this trade! 💰🔥💪🏻

 

Trading Signals USDSGD 080323

USDSGD – Following up on this, the consolidation was a pennant chart pattern, which indicates a second leg of close to equal proportion to the first leg.

Yesterday, we saw a strong breakout of the pennant, with a potential target of 1.3800.

For those who have been long since the bottom, congrats on the rough 4% capital appreciation! 💰🔥💪🏻

 

Trading Signals NZDCHF 040323

NZDCHF – After retracing to test the breakout neckline, it is now giving us another great shorting opportunity.

 

Trading Signals NZDUSD 040323

NZDUSD – After breaking the support level, it went on to test the support-turned-resistance level, and is now poised to head downwards.

Great low-risk shorting opportunity.

 

Stock & Bond Market Highlights

 

Trading Signals US100 030323

NASDAQ 100 (US100) – After several bullish pin-bars, there is some bullish short-term price action (maybe profit-taking?), so we might see a rebound to test the support-turned-resistance level.

Wil watch out at the red circled zone next week.

 

Trading Signals China Tech Stocks 080323

China tech stocks (3067) – Following up on this, after the decline to support and the bounce, we are expecting another leg down.

We are looking for a potential buying zone for the long-term bull trend, and I have circled that zone.

We will see what happens once price reaches that zone. Stay tuned!

 

Trading Signals 2 year treasuries 040323

Trading Signals 2 year treasuries discussions 040323

Cos on Twitter some people will be very bullish, some will be very bearish, so good to see both sides what the reasons are.

 

Trading Signals consumer loans 080323

Total delinquent consumer loans in the United States.

 

Trading Signals fed break something 080323

Fed tightening cycles always “break” something.

 

Trading Signals t bill yield 040323

For the first time in a long time, fixed income is more attractive than stocks. 🤩

 

Trading Signals US Treasury 080323

Short-term US Treasurys climbed to new milestones after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that the central bank would likely raise interest rates higher than previously expected and was ready to accelerate the pace of rate increases if necessary.

The yield on the two-year Treasury note had settled at 5.011%, up from 4.892% Monday, and marked its first close above 5% since June 2007.

Traders’ immediate focus is the central bank’s next rate-setting meeting, which wraps up two weeks from Wednesday.

Bets in futures markets now reflect roughly two-thirds odds of a half-point move at the coming meeting, up from about one-thirds odds a day earlier.

 

Crypto Market Highlights

Trading Signals US100 080323

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) and Ethereum (ETHUSD) – After the testing the previous swing high, they did not manage to break through, but they could be building strength to try again.

You can either accumulate some near the minor support level, or wait for prices to break the prior swing high before going long.

 

 

Click here to receive all these signals in real-time for only $67 a month! You will get several signals a day, and even taking just 1 trade the whole month can easily cover the fee, so what are you waiting for?

Good luck, and may next week bring more excellent profits!

0 Comments/by Spencer Li
https://synapsetrading.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/Lake-Aydarkul-Uzbekistan.jpg 1536 2048 Spencer Li https://synapsetrading.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/logo.jpg Spencer Li2023-03-11 00:48:302023-03-12 11:37:25Weekly Market Wrap: Will Banks Runs Cause the Market to Crash Next Week?
Spencer Li

Weekly Market Wrap: Inflation Fears are Back Again?

Market Analysis
Dushanbe Tajikistan

The global financial markets are experiencing volatility as investors try to gauge the future path of monetary policy. The US Federal Reserve has said it may hike interest rates sooner than expected to combat rising inflation, which could have an impact on stock and bond markets. The Fed has also been discussing the possibility of reducing its bond-buying program.

In Asia, Japan’s central bank has said it will maintain its loose monetary policy, while China is considering measures to boost economic growth.

Gold prices have risen as traders assess the likelihood of interest rate hikes in the US. The precious metal is often seen as a hedge against inflation and is currently on track for its best week since mid-January. Meanwhile, the US dollar has experienced its first weekly loss since January, with traders uncertain about the Fed’s path.

Europe is also experiencing volatility in its financial markets, with concerns over rising inflation in the eurozone. Inflation in the region hit a record high of 7.7% in February, according to Eurostat. The European Central Bank is under pressure to take action to combat inflation, but has so far maintained its stance on monetary policy.

Overall, it is a challenging time for investors as they navigate uncertainty over monetary policy, inflation, and economic growth. The situation is being closely monitored by market participants around the world.

For more market updates and real-time trading opportunities, check out our “Daily Trading Signals” Telegram channel!

 

Dushanbe Tajikistan

[Photo: Dushanbe, Tajikistan – See my full travel photo log!]

For our weekly market wrap, we go through some of the trade calls and analysis from last week, which gives us valuable insights for the week ahead.

We cover 3 main markets with a total of 200+ counters, so we will never run out of trading opportunities:

  • Forex, CFDs, commodities, bonds
  • US stocks, ETFs, global stock indices
  • Cryptocurrencies, crypto indices

By covering a broad range of markets, we can focus our attention (and capital) on whichever market currently gives the best returns.

Click here to receive all these signals in real-time for only $67 a month! You will get several signals a day, and even taking just 1 trade the whole month can easily cover the fee, so what are you waiting for?

 

Weekly Market Outlook Video

Trading Signals Weekly Market Outlook 270223

Weekly Market Outlook (26 February 2023)

Last week was great for our positioning of long USD and short equities, we could see a continue of that this week due to momentum, unless there is any major news to change the flow.

 

Portfolio Highlights

Trading Signals Weekly Portfolio Updates 260223

Weekly Portfolio Updates (26 February 2023)

📌 Our accumulated short positions are doing very well
📌 Added more shorts on pullbacks as the market went down

 

Forex & Commodities Market Highlights

Trading Signals AUDCAD 280223

AUDCAD – Prices are falling as anticipated, congrats to those who took this short trade! 💰🔥💪🏻

 

Trading Signals AUDNZD 020323

AUDNZD – Following up from one of the previous videos, this was a nice short at major resistance, which coincided with the breakdown of a bearish rising wedge.

Congrats to those who shorted, and there might be another shorting opportunity on the next pullback! 💰🔥💪🏻

 

Trading Signals EURAUD 280223

EURAUD – It took way longer than expected, but prices are finally heading up!

 

Trading Signals USDSGD 260223

USDSGD – Looking the at the weekly chart, we managed to use the long-term trend to our advantage and go in big on the USD. I accumulated about $500k of USD near the support area.

Let’s see how much higher it can go! 💰🔥💪🏻

 

Trading Signals XAUUSD 260223

Gold (XAUUSD) – This price movement prediction was spot on, except that the rebound happened on a smaller scale.

Congrats to those who shorted! 💰🔥💪🏻

 

Trading Signals XAUUSD 010323

Gold (XAUUSD) – Following up from the video, we mentioned that there is likely to be a rebound this week due to prices being oversold.

 

Stock & Bond Market Highlights

market poll 040323

Based on our latest market poll, there does not seem to be a clear direction, with 39% bullish vs 46% bearish, and 15% neutral.

 

Trading Signals China Tech Stocks 260223

China tech stocks (3067) – Nearing our profit target for short positions! 💰🔥💪🏻

 

Trading Signals China Tech Stocks 280223

China tech stocks (3067) – Like I mentioned in the video, this support was a good place to flip to long, and just today we saw a crazy price surge of 6+%! 💰🔥💪🏻

 

Trading Signals GOOG 260223

Google (GOOG) – Following up from our video last week, the price has fallen back into the channel as predicted, and looks likely to continue heading down.

Congrats to those who shorted! 💰🔥💪🏻

 

Trading Signals US100 260223

NASDAQ 100 (US100) – Managed to short near the top, congrats to those who joined in! 💰🔥💪🏻

Let’s see if the downtrend continues next week!

 

Trading Signals Lowest Inflation 260223

Singapore’s inflation is 6.7% 😕

 

Trading Signals Tbills 030323

For the first time in a long time, fixed income is more attractive than stocks. 🤩

 

 

Click here to receive all these signals in real-time for only $67 a month! You will get several signals a day, and even taking just 1 trade the whole month can easily cover the fee, so what are you waiting for?

Good luck, and may next week bring more excellent profits!

0 Comments/by Spencer Li
https://synapsetrading.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/Dushanbe-Tajikistan.jpg 1536 2048 Spencer Li https://synapsetrading.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/logo.jpg Spencer Li2023-03-04 02:09:112023-03-11 01:40:10Weekly Market Wrap: Inflation Fears are Back Again?
Spencer Li

Weekly Market Wrap: Large Profits on USD Longs and Stock Market Shorts!

Market Analysis
Charyn Canyon Kazakhstan

Global markets had a mixed week, as concerns over rising interest rates and inflation continued to weigh on investor sentiment.

Gold prices edged up as the dollar weakened due to rate hike worries, capping off a choppy trading week for the precious metal. The price of gold has been volatile in recent weeks as investors weigh the impact of rising interest rates and inflation on its value.

Meanwhile, the US dollar was steady as investors evaluated the Federal Reserve’s outlook for higher-for-longer interest rates. The yen saw increased volatility as traders digested mixed economic data from Japan.

Oil prices gained on Russian supply cut worries, while higher US inventories weighed on prices. Crude prices rebounded after a six-day losing streak as market participants watched geopolitical tensions and supply cuts.

In Asia, equities were mixed, with US rate hike worries still weighing on the markets. Japan’s Nikkei 225 index closed higher, while China’s Shanghai Composite fell.

Overall, markets continue to face uncertainty over the direction of interest rates and inflation, as well as geopolitical risks, which are likely to lead to volatility in the short term.

Thankfully, over the past week, we have been holding large USDSGD long positions and large short positions on the US stock market, which gave us double gains for our portfolio.

For more market updates and real-time trading opportunities, join our private “Daily Trading Signals” Telegram channel!

 

Charyn Canyon Kazakhstan

[Photo: Charyn Canyon, Kazakhstan – See my full travel photo log!]

For our weekly market wrap, we go through some of the trade calls and analysis from last week, which gives us valuable insights for the week ahead.

We cover 3 main markets with a total of 200+ counters, so we will never run out of trading opportunities:

  • Forex, CFDs, commodities, bonds
  • US stocks, ETFs, global stock indices
  • Cryptocurrencies, crypto indices

By covering a broad range of markets, we can focus our attention (and capital) on whichever market currently gives the best returns.

Click here to receive all these signals in real-time for only $67 a month! You will get several signals a day, and even taking just 1 trade the whole month can easily cover the fee, so what are you waiting for?

 

Weekly Market Outlook Video

Trading Signals Weekly Market Outlook 190223

Weekly Market Outlook (19 February 2023)

📌 CPI rose 0.5% in January on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.1 percent in December.
📌 Retail sales increase 3.0% in January
📌 Core retail sales rise 1.7%; December data unrevised
📌 Manufacturing production rebounds 1.0%
📌 Current Fed rates are 4.50% to 4.75%, 80% chance of 4.75% to 5.00% in next FOMC meeting
📌 Risk-off mode again?

 

Portfolio Highlights

Trading Signals Weekly Portfolio Updates 190223

Weekly Portfolio Updates (19 February 2023)

📌 Added a bit more T-bills at 5%
📌 Took profit on US tech stocks and REIT shorts
📌 Added a bit more short positions to stocks

 

Forex & Commodities Market Highlights

Trading Signals USDSGD 190223

USDSGD – Congrats on the 300+ pips profit riding this wave up! 💰🔥💪🏻

Now that it has run into strong resistance, it is a good idea to take half or some profits, and trail the rest.

 

Trading Signals GBPJPY 220223

GBPJPY – As mentioned in the video, this counter is in a long-term uptrend channel, and more recently broke out from an ascending triangle.

 

Stock & Bond Market Highlights

Trading Signals China Tech Stocks 190223

China tech stocks (3067) – After a strong run-up, we can expect a pullback to support, which may be a good buying opportunity to get onto the long-term trend.

 

Trading Signals US100 190223

NASDAQ 100 (US100) – Currently consolidating at a crucial point, if it breaks lower bulls will give up and bears will jump in again.

If it breaks higher, then bears will wait at the prior swing high (around 13750) to mount another challenge.

 

Trading Signals stock market predictions 210223

Watching this today to see if it breaks to the downside and triggers the price alert.

 

Trading Signals US100 240223

NASDAQ 100 (US100) – Looking at the 4 hour chart, it has a nice pullback to the breakout neckline. Good chance to add more short positions.

 

Trading Signals interest rate 220223

Investors have been hoping for a “soft landing” for the US economy, but the recent spate of strong economic data has worried some that it might not happen.

The fear is that the US economy will continue to heat up, forcing the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates higher than expected for longer, increasing the chances of a sharp downturn that would hit the markets hard. Investors had been hoping that the Fed would be able to rein in inflation without tipping the economy into recession.

The recent strength of the data has led analysts to increase their forecasts for the peak federal-funds rate to around 5.25%, with some warning that such an increase would increase the likelihood of a recession, which the S&P 500 tends to decline in such scenarios.

 

Crypto Market Highlights

Trading Signals ETHUSD 190223

Ethereum (ETHUSD) – Can consider taking a long position with a tight stop, with a potential upside of 15-20% to test the prior swing high.

 

Trading Signals crypto new 220223

After a series of high-profile collapses in 2022, cryptocurrencies faced a tough year. However, things may be looking up in 2023 as Bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies have started to rise, suggesting that the dreaded “crypto winter” could be thawing.

Analysts believe that favourable market conditions and the US Federal Reserve slowing its pace of interest rate hikes could be contributing to this rise. Additionally, the upcoming Bitcoin halving event in 2024 could help lift the prices of Bitcoin out of the doldrums, according to historical data.

Furthermore, the development of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) could give digital assets more credibility. While cryptocurrencies remain volatile, they could continue to be used as a digital currency for transactions in the digital space.

 

Click here to receive all these signals in real-time for only $67 a month! You will get several signals a day, and even taking just 1 trade the whole month can easily cover the fee, so what are you waiting for?

 

0 Comments/by Spencer Li
https://synapsetrading.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/Charyn-Canyon-Kazakhstan.jpg 1536 2048 Spencer Li https://synapsetrading.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/logo.jpg Spencer Li2023-02-24 19:32:182023-02-26 00:37:59Weekly Market Wrap: Large Profits on USD Longs and Stock Market Shorts!
Spencer Li

What is the Best Investment During a Recession?

Economics & News Trading
Thumbnail What is the Best Investment During a Recession

Best Investments During a Recession: Where to Put Your Money in a Downturn

Last updated: 3 July 2026 · By Spencer Li, CFTe


The best investments during a recession are defensive, cash-flow-stable assets that hold up when growth stalls: high-quality government bonds (like US Treasuries), defensive stocks (utilities, healthcare, consumer staples), gold, and well-timed real estate. History backs this. In the 2008 to 2009 Great Recession, the US Treasury bond market gained 12.7% as investors fled to safety, gold rose more than 25%, and the healthcare sector held up far better than the broad market while the S&P 500 fell roughly 56% from its October 2007 peak. The common thread is simple: in a downturn, money moves from things that need growth to things that survive without it. No asset is truly recession-proof, so the real job is diversification and position sizing, not finding one magic ticker.

Here is what a recession actually is, the early warning signs to watch, how it hits each market, and where the safer money tends to go.

What is a recession?

A recession is a period of economic decline marked by falling Gross Domestic Product (GDP, the total value of goods and services an economy produces), rising unemployment, and shrinking consumer and business spending.

It is usually triggered by a mix of factors, not a single one. A drop in demand, a supply shock, a financial crisis, or an external event can all start the slide, and they often compound each other.

To fight a recession, governments and central banks lean on monetary and fiscal policy: cutting interest rates, raising government spending, and offering tax incentives to restart growth. The damage can outlast the downturn itself, showing up as higher poverty, tighter credit, and lower consumer confidence.

What causes a recession?

Recessions rarely have one clean cause. These are the usual suspects, often several at once:

  • Tight monetary policy. When the central bank raises interest rates to control inflation, borrowing and spending fall, which can tip the economy into contraction.
  • Bursting asset bubbles. A speculative run-up in real estate or stocks that suddenly reverses can drag the whole economy down with it.
  • External shocks. Natural disasters, wars, or pandemics can disrupt activity fast.
  • Fiscal policy. Sharp changes in government spending or taxation can cool the economy.
  • Supply shocks. A sudden jump in a key input, like a major oil price spike, can choke growth.
  • Banking crises. When banks stop lending, investment and activity seize up.
  • Trade imbalances. Large imbalances or protectionist policies can disrupt international trade enough to cause a downturn.

What are the early warning signs of a recession?

No single indicator predicts a recession with certainty. But a handful of signals tend to flash before the downturn arrives, and they matter more when several show up together.

Warning signWhat it means
Inverted yield curveShort-term bonds yield more than long-term bonds, a sign investors have lost confidence in the long-term outlook
High debt levelsHouseholds, companies, or governments carrying excessive debt that gets hard to sustain
Slowing job growthHiring stalls or unemployment starts rising, an early tell that the economy is weakening
Falling consumer spendingPeople cut back, signalling lower confidence and softening demand
Stock market declineA sharp, sustained drop suggests investors are worried about what is coming

The inverted yield curve (when short-term interest rates rise above long-term rates) is the one most analysts watch, because it has preceded most modern US recessions. None of these is a guarantee. Read them as a cluster, not a crystal ball.

How does a recession affect the financial markets?

A recession ripples through every major market, and not always in the same direction. Here is how it has played out historically.

  • Stocks decline. Markets fall as investors turn pessimistic. In the 2008 recession, the S&P 500 dropped around 56% from its peak in October 2007 to its low in March 2009.
  • Bonds rally. As stocks fall, money moves into safer bonds, pushing bond prices up and yields down. The 10-year US Treasury yield fell from around 4% in mid-2007 to below 2% by the end of 2008.
  • Currencies can devalue. If investors lose faith in a country, its currency can drop. During the late-1990s Asian financial crisis, the Thai baht lost around 50% against the US dollar and the Indonesian rupiah lost around 80%.
  • Commodities fall. Demand for oil, copper, and similar inputs drops with activity. In 2008, oil fell from around $145 a barrel in July to roughly $30 by December.

Not every recession hits the markets the same way, and there is wide variation in how individual sectors and asset classes hold up. That variation is exactly why the asset class you choose matters.

What is the best asset class to invest in during a recession?

During a downturn, investors look for safe havens that can ride out the storm. Four asset classes have historically done that job, each with a real example from the 2008 to 2009 Great Recession.

Asset classWhy it holds up2008 to 2009 example
Government bonds (e.g. US Treasuries)Considered among the safest assets; benefit from the flight to safetyUS Treasury bond market gained 12.7% as investors flocked to safety
Defensive stocks (utilities, healthcare, staples)Sell essentials people buy in any economy, so earnings are steadierS&P 500 healthcare sector was one of the few that did not decline as much
GoldTraditional safe haven that tends to do well in uncertaintyGold rose more than 25% as investors sought protection
Real estateLow rates and lower prices create entry points for long-term holdersHousing prices fell sharply, but had rebounded and were rising again by 2012

A few honest caveats. Bonds and gold are defensive, not magic; they can lag badly once the recovery starts. Real estate is the slowest to turn and the hardest to exit in a panic, so it rewards patience and a long horizon, not a quick flip. And no asset here is fully recession-proof. Every one of them carries risk.

That is why the answer is not a single ticker. It is a diversified mix, sized so that no one position can sink you, matched to your own risk tolerance and time horizon.

Where the human edge comes in

A screener can rank every defensive sector for you in a second, and a model can plot the yield curve and tell you it just inverted. That part is basically free now. What the machine will not do is tell you how much of your portfolio to actually move, when to stop buying the dip because your sizing is already stretched, or whether you have the temperament to hold a falling asset through the worst of it. The data is the easy part. Knowing how much to commit and when to sit on your hands is the judgment, and that is the first of the Five Edges no algorithm trades for you.

How to prepare your portfolio before a recession

You do not have to predict the exact top to be ready. A few steps go a long way:

  • Diversify across asset classes, so a hit to one market does not take out the whole portfolio.
  • Hold some cash and high-quality bonds, which give you both stability and dry powder to deploy when prices are low.
  • Know your risk tolerance and time horizon before the stress hits, not during it. Decisions made in a panic are almost always worse.

If you want a repeatable way to read market conditions and size positions instead of reacting to headlines, that is exactly what a tested system is for.

FAQ

What is the safest investment during a recession?
High-quality government bonds, such as US Treasuries, are generally considered among the safest. In the 2008 to 2009 Great Recession, the US Treasury bond market gained 12.7% as investors moved money into safety.

Does gold go up in a recession?
Often, yes. Gold is a traditional safe haven and tends to do well during economic uncertainty. During the 2008 to 2009 recession, gold prices rose more than 25%. It is not guaranteed, though, and gold can lag once a recovery begins.

Is real estate a good investment during a recession?
It can be for long-term investors, because interest rates tend to be low and property prices may fall, creating entry points. In 2008 to 2009, housing prices dropped sharply but had rebounded by 2012. Real estate is slow to turn and hard to exit quickly, so it rewards patience.

What are the early warning signs of a recession?
The most-watched signals are an inverted yield curve, high debt levels, slowing job growth, falling consumer spending, and a declining stock market. No single one is decisive; they are most reliable when several appear together.

Is any investment fully recession-proof?
No. Every asset class carries some risk, and recessions do not all behave the same way. The practical defence is diversification and position sizing matched to your own risk tolerance, not a single “safe” asset.


Now that you know where the safer money tends to go, the harder question is how much of your portfolio to actually move, and when. How are you preparing for the next downturn? Let me know in the comments.

And if you want the bigger picture of how to build a portfolio that survives any market cycle, read the pillar: The Beginner’s Guide to Investing and Trading.

Want a system instead of a reaction? Grab the free 15-Minute Swing Trading Starter Kit. It’s the exact routine I use to read market conditions and trade any market in 15 minutes a day.


About the author. Spencer Li is the founder of Synapse Trading and a Certified Financial Technician (CFTe) with 15 years of trading across stocks, forex, crypto, commodities, and bonds. His trade log is public, 404 trades, losses left in. He teaches low-risk swing trading in 15 minutes a day, one system for any market.

Education, not financial advice. Synapse Trading is not licensed by MAS to advise on investment products. Trading carries risk of loss; past performance is not indicative of future results.


Related

The Beginner’s Guide to Investing and Trading (pillar) · How to build a diversified portfolio · Safe haven assets explained · How to read the yield curve

0 Comments/by Spencer Li
https://synapsetrading.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/Thumbnail-What-is-the-Best-Investment-During-a-Recession.png 720 1280 Spencer Li https://synapsetrading.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/logo.jpg Spencer Li2023-02-20 13:15:382026-07-06 00:31:56What is the Best Investment During a Recession?
Spencer Li

Weekly Market Wrap: Inflation Fears are Back!

Market Analysis
2022 09 14 14 27 45

Stocks declined after January’s producer price index, which is another inflation gauge, increased by 0.7% in the month, higher than the expected 0.4%.

This follows reports that January’s consumer price index and retail sales were both higher than anticipated, suggesting that the Federal Reserve may need to do more to curb inflation.

In addition, initial jobless claims unexpectedly dropped in the week ending Feb. 11, according to the Labor Department’s report.

The decline in jobless claims indicates a tight labor market, while comments from Federal Reserve Presidents James Bullard and Loretta Mester advocating for an interest rate hike in March also weighed on stocks.

Investors should be aware that inflation may not return to normal levels quickly, which could result in more volatility in the market.

Stay tuned for real-time trading opportunities in our “Daily Trading Signals” Telegram channel!

 

2022 09 14 14 27 45

[Photo: Khujand, Tajikistan – See my full travel photo log!]

For our weekly market wrap, we go through some of the trade calls and analysis from last week, which gives us valuable insights for the week ahead.

We cover 3 main markets with a total of 200+ counters, so we will never run out of trading opportunities:

  • Forex, CFDs, commodities, bonds
  • US stocks, ETFs, global stock indices
  • Cryptocurrencies, crypto indices

By covering a broad range of markets, we can focus our attention (and capital) on whichever market currently gives the best returns.

Click here to receive all these signals in real-time for only $67 a month! You will get several signals a day, and even taking just 1 trade the whole month can easily cover the fee, so what are you waiting for?

 

Weekly Market Outlook Video

Trading Signals weekly market outlook 130223

Weekly Market Outlook (12 February 2023)

After December’s inflation data was adjusted upwards, the market has been extra jittery, so next week’s CPI date release on Tuesday is going to have a very large significance on the stance of the Fed.

 

Portfolio Highlights

Trading Signals weekly portfolio 120223

Weekly Portfolio Updates (12 February 2023)

Not much changes in allocation since last week.

 

Forex & Commodities Market Highlights

Trading Signals EURCAD 140223

ERUCAD – Following up on this trade, congrats to all those who followed and shorted! The profit is currently about 200+ pips. 💰🔥💪🏻

The current price momentum looks very strong, and has a good chance of going further.

 

Trading Signals EURCHF 140223

EURCHF – After the false breakout, the bears are back in control. This looks like a good shorting opportunity.

 

Trading Signals NZDCAD 160223

NZDCAD – Took longer than expected, but it finally hit the TP for about 300+ pips profit! 💰🔥💪🏻

 

Trading Signals USDSGD 140223

USDSGD – Formed a small bull flag, which means good chance of another bullish leg.

Congrats to those who took this rebound trade! 💰🔥💪🏻

 

Trading Signals XAUUSD 140223

Gold (XAUUSD) – Following up on Gold, this is how it could play out. Wait for a good pullback to take a low risk short with the tight stop.

 

Stock & Bond Market Highlights

Trading Signals T bills 150223

Wow the 6-month T-bills have hit 5% returns. This means the expected terminal rate of interest rates have gone up.

 

Trading Signals CPI 140223

This was the smallest 12-month increase since the period ending October 2021.

 

Trading Signals dow inflation 170223

Dow closes 400 points lower as hot inflation report, comments from Fed’s Bullard raise rate hike fears.

 

Cryptocurrency Highlights

Trading Signals ETHUSD 140223

Ethereum (ETHUSD) – How it breaks out of this most recent consolidation will most likely determine its fate for the rest of the year.

 

 

Click here to receive all these signals in real-time for only $67 a month! You will get several signals a day, and even taking just 1 trade the whole month can easily cover the fee, so what are you waiting for?

Good luck, and may next week bring more excellent profits!

0 Comments/by Spencer Li
https://synapsetrading.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/2022-09-14-14.27.45-scaled.jpg 1920 2560 Spencer Li https://synapsetrading.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/logo.jpg Spencer Li2023-02-17 00:35:542023-02-24 20:34:23Weekly Market Wrap: Inflation Fears are Back!
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