Last week, all eyes were on the CPI (Consumer Price Index) data, because if inflation does not slow down, it suggests that the measures taken so far are insufficient, then there is a high chance that the Fed will continue raising rates more aggressively (which is bad for markets).

As markets drifted downwards, we continued to manage our shorts, and take profits on our open positions. I also advised to rotate out of USD to SGD, since there might be a weakening of USD.

Surprisingly, even though the CPI was much higher than expected, prices behaved erratically, by first plunging, then recovering and closing up. Thus it is possible that markets have been oversold and much has been priced in.

Now, how should we approach such a market, especially ahead of the rate hikes coming in about 2-3 weeks?

Stayed tuned for my Weekly Market Outlook video in the Daily Trading Signals Telegram channel!

[Photo: Yurt Camping, Kyrgyzstan – See my full travel photo log!]

For our weekly market wrap, we go through some of the trade calls and analysis from last week, which gives us valuable insights for the week ahead.

We cover 3 main markets with a total of 200+ counters, so we will never run out of trading opportunities:

• Forex, CFDs, commodities, bonds
• US stocks, ETFs, global stock indices
• Cryptocurrencies, crypto indices

By covering a broad range of markets, we can focus our attention (and capital) on whichever market currently gives the best returns.

Click here to receive all these signals in real-time for only $67 a month! You will get several signals a day, and even taking just 1 trade the whole month can easily cover the fee, so what are you waiting for?

 

Weekly Market Outlook Video

Weekly Market Outlook (10 October 2022)
? More rate hikes coming on 2nd Nov? CPI release on 13 October.
? Long-term bearish for stocks, crypto, REITs, commods, etc. Slightly in the money now, continue to add more short positions on pullbacks.
? Long-term bullish for USD

 

Portfolio Highlights

Weekly Portfolio Update (11 October 2022)

Reinstated short positions on stocks, crypto, REITs. Bought some short-term fixed income products to generate yield in the short/medium-term while waiting for buying opportunities.

 

Forex & Commodities Market Highlights

Weekly Forex Exposure (11 October 2022)

Most exposure is in USD, with the rest in SGD, and short positions on EUR.

 

NZD is weak against the USD, and NZDUSD has formed a bear flag and is continuing to head downwards.

 

A similar pattern is seen on the AUDUSD, where a bear flag is formed and prices continue to fall. Great for shorting on any pullbacks.

 

MAS might take steps to strengthen the SGD, which will cause the USDSGD to fall.

Technicals-wise, there is strong resistance at the 1.44 level, with price getting rejected twice at that level.

The RSI is also turning down from an overbought region.

There might be a correction, so I am reducing my USD exposure.

 

Gold (XAUUSD) continues to be bearish, as the Fed continues to hike rates to push inflation down. Gold is a leading indicator of inflation.

 

Could this be a bullish catalyst for oil? https://www.newtraderu.com/2022/10/12/the-worst-oil-crisis-in-40-years-has-started/

 

Stock & Bond Market Highlights

Global Inflation Rates

 

? Simple guide for those who have been asking me how to buy T-bills for 4% yield. (You might want to bookmark it.)

(Check out the full guide in our Daily Trading Signals Telegram channel.

 

‘It’s the interest-rate outlook determining the equity market, and the key to the interest-rate outlook is the labor market.’

https://www.wsj.com/articles/global-stocks-markets-dow-update-10-07-2022-11665139154

 

More bad earnings to come? https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-jittery-stock-market-heads-into-earnings-season-11665258248

 

What happens to Stock Prices when the Fed Pivots?

Historically – they crash by even more.?

Over the last 6 Major Recessions, Stocks Crashed an average of 28% AFTER the Fed did 1st Rate Cut.

Taking another 14 Months to get to the "Bottom". pic.twitter.com/raiUpZ9OD6

— Nick Gerli (@nickgerli1) October 11, 2022

 

Crypto Market Highlights

After a long wait on my shorts, Ethereum (ETHUSD) is finally breaking down! ?

 

Click here to receive all these signals in real-time for only $67 a month! You will get several signals a day, and even taking just 1 trade the whole month can easily cover the fee, so what are you waiting for?

Good luck, and may next week bring more excellent profits!

Last week, we saw the bearish trend continue for stocks, crypto and REITs, as well as the bullish trend for USD.

Since we have been holding these positions for quite a while, and they are all deeply in the money, I have decided to close these positions and take profits.

Some of these positions were also getting a bit overbought/oversold, and some were nearing support/resistance, so I thought it would be a good idea to take profits and stand aside to see if there is any rebound, where we can re-enter the market at a better price.

This month has been one of the most profitable for our portfolio, and there is a good chance that the long-term trends will continue till the end of the year.

Want to know when to re-enter the market?

Join our Daily Trading Signals Telegram channel for real-time market updates and the best trading opportunities!

 

[Photo: Desert Safari, Dubai, UAE – See my full travel photo log!]

For our weekly market wrap, we go through some of the trade calls and analysis from last week, which gives us valuable insights for the week ahead.

We cover 3 main markets with a total of 200+ counters, so we will never run out of trading opportunities:

• Forex, CFDs, commodities, bonds
• US stocks, ETFs, global stock indices
• Cryptocurrencies, crypto indices

By covering a broad range of markets, we can focus our attention (and capital) on whichever market currently gives the best returns.

Click here to receive all these signals in real-time for only $67 a month! You will get several signals a day, and even taking just 1 trade the whole month can easily cover the fee, so what are you waiting for?

 

Weekly Market Outlook Video

Weekly Market Outlook (23 September 2022)
? Rates went up by 0.75% during FOMC on 21 Sept – more rate hikes coming!
? Long-term bearish for stocks, crypto, REITs, commods, etc. Deeply in the money now, continue to add more short positions on pullbacks.
? Long-term bullish for USD

 

Portfolio Highlights

Weekly Portfolio Update (23 September 2022)

Still bearish on stocks, REITs, and crypto, accumulating short positions. Almost all of cash is held in USD since it is the strongest.

Forex & Commodities Market Highlights

Now that the second target for USDSGD has been hit, it might be a good idea to take profits since it is at the top of the large trading range.

 

Following up on USDSGD, it has exhibited 2 bearish pin bars. Likely to have a correction soon.

 

Parity with USD next?

https://twitter.com/thestalwart/status/1574203631456292864

 

Stock & Bond Market Highlights

https://www.wsj.com/articles/mortgage-rates-rise-to-6-7-highest-since-2007-11664460015

 

For those still short on the NASDAQ 100 (US100), might be a good idea to take some profits since prices have dropped a lot in a short period of time, and a rebound is likely.

 

The global REIT ETF (REET) is turning out to be one of my best shorts this year, and I might start to take some profits as the drop is looking a bit too climatic.

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/goldman-sachs-cuts-2022-target-091339381.html

 

Crypto Market Highlights

Looks like a good time to take some shorts on Ethereum (ETHUSD), after prices tested the resistance level and rejected it with a pinbar.

 

 

Click here to receive all these signals in real-time for only $67 a month! You will get several signals a day, and even taking just 1 trade the whole month can easily cover the fee, so what are you waiting for?

Good luck, and may next week bring more excellent profits!