Blog: Market Analysis

https://www.wsj.com/articles/britains-financial-disaster-is-a-warning-to-the-world-11664596851

Last week, we saw a sharp rebound in all markets (stocks, bonds, crypto, REITs, etc), which was not unexpected given how oversold most markets were.

That is why we decided to cash out by closing all positions and taking profits. This includes my high 6-figure USD/SGD long positions.

The plan was to wait for the rebound to be over before entering all the same positions again, which happened in the later part of the week.

This week, we have already positioned ourselves for the market, and the major news of the week will be the CPI report coming out on 13 October.

No doubt September was one of our best trading months, with many traders making 10-15% profits on their portfolios, but if the market continues falling, I won’t be surprised if we exceed that record in the next 2 months.

If you want to join us in swing trading the market with 15 minutes a day, join our Daily Trading Signals Telegram channel. See you on the inside!

[Photo: Patungan, Cavite, Philippines – See my full travel photo log!]

For our weekly market wrap, we go through some of the trade calls and analysis from last week, which gives us valuable insights for the week ahead.

We cover 3 main markets with a total of 200+ counters, so we will never run out of trading opportunities:

Forex, CFDs, commodities, bonds
US stocks, ETFs, global stock indices
Cryptocurrencies, crypto indices

By covering a broad range of markets, we can focus our attention (and capital) on whichever market currently gives the best returns.

Weekly Market Outlook Video

Weekly Market Outlook (3 October 2022)
? Long-term bearish for stocks, crypto, REITs, commods, etc. Deeply in the money now, but closed all positions as market feels a bit too climatic.
? Credit Suisse and Deutsche Bank may face liquidity issues – will this drag down the bond and stock markets?
? Long-term bullish for USD

Portfolio Highlights

Weekly Portfolio Update (3 October 2022)

Playing defensive this week, and waiting for better trading opportunities. Closed most positions and rotated all USD to SGD.

Forex & Commodities Market Highlights

1.000 parity level has now become a support-turned-resistance level for the EURUSD. Will be expecting it to continue falling when USD resumes the uptrend.

After cashing out on my USD near this cluster of pinbars, I am waiting for USDSGD to fall to the previous support level to re-enter.

I have placed some price alerts near the area, so we will know immediately when that happens. Stay tuned!

Stock & Bond Market Highlights

Why are markets so sensitive to data that would normally be regarded as merely an imprecise guide to the economy, to be taken in the context of other reports? Here are three theories:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/markets-are-stuck-in-overreaction-mode-11664894767

https://www.wsj.com/articles/battered-investors-now-find-thrills-in-t-bills-11664676704

After taking profit on our shorts near the exact bottom, the NASDAQ 100 (US100) is now having a dead cat bounce.

I am waiting for price action to turn bearish again so I can short. This might happen near the 50-EMA or the top of the bearish trendline.

I have placed price alerts at key levels, so we will know when the time is ripe. Stay tuned!

Crypto Market Highlights

Ethereum (ETHUSD) is still trading in a narrow range, but it is very near the neckline resistance and the 20-EMA.

Based on technicals alone, it is a bearish picture.

Good luck, and may next week bring more excellent profits!

Spencer is an avid globetrotter who achieved financial freedom in his 20s, while trading & teaching across 70+ countries. As a former professional trader in private equity and proprietary funds, he has over 15 years of market experience, and has been featured on more than 20 occasions in the media.

Weekly Market Wrap: Taking Profit on Short Positions!

https://twitter.com/thestalwart/status/1574203631456292864

Last week, we saw the bearish trend continue for stocks, crypto and REITs, as well as the bullish trend for USD.

Since we have been holding these positions for quite a while, and they are all deeply in the money, I have decided to close these positions and take profits.

Some of these positions were also getting a bit overbought/oversold, and some were nearing support/resistance, so I thought it would be a good idea to take profits and stand aside to see if there is any rebound, where we can re-enter the market at a better price.

This month has been one of the most profitable for our portfolio, and there is a good chance that the long-term trends will continue till the end of the year.

Want to know when to re-enter the market?

Join our Daily Trading Signals Telegram channel for real-time market updates and the best trading opportunities!

[Photo: Desert Safari, Dubai, UAE – See my full travel photo log!]

For our weekly market wrap, we go through some of the trade calls and analysis from last week, which gives us valuable insights for the week ahead.

We cover 3 main markets with a total of 200+ counters, so we will never run out of trading opportunities:

Forex, CFDs, commodities, bonds
US stocks, ETFs, global stock indices
Cryptocurrencies, crypto indices

By covering a broad range of markets, we can focus our attention (and capital) on whichever market currently gives the best returns.

Weekly Market Outlook Video

Weekly Market Outlook (23 September 2022)
? Rates went up by 0.75% during FOMC on 21 Sept – more rate hikes coming!
? Long-term bearish for stocks, crypto, REITs, commods, etc. Deeply in the money now, continue to add more short positions on pullbacks.
? Long-term bullish for USD

Portfolio Highlights

Weekly Portfolio Update (23 September 2022)

Still bearish on stocks, REITs, and crypto, accumulating short positions. Almost all of cash is held in USD since it is the strongest.

Forex & Commodities Market Highlights

Now that the second target for USDSGD has been hit, it might be a good idea to take profits since it is at the top of the large trading range.

Following up on USDSGD, it has exhibited 2 bearish pin bars. Likely to have a correction soon.

Parity with USD next?

Stock & Bond Market Highlights

https://www.wsj.com/articles/mortgage-rates-rise-to-6-7-highest-since-2007-11664460015

For those still short on the NASDAQ 100 (US100), might be a good idea to take some profits since prices have dropped a lot in a short period of time, and a rebound is likely.

The global REIT ETF (REET) is turning out to be one of my best shorts this year, and I might start to take some profits as the drop is looking a bit too climatic.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/goldman-sachs-cuts-2022-target-091339381.html

Crypto Market Highlights

Looks like a good time to take some shorts on Ethereum (ETHUSD), after prices tested the resistance level and rejected it with a pinbar.

Good luck, and may next week bring more excellent profits!

Weekly Market Wrap: The Bears are Back in Full force!

https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/fed-set-big-rate-hike-waters-get-choppy-worlds-central-banks-2022-09-21/

After the rate hike last week, and the continued hawkish tone of the Fed, the market bears are now back in full force!

As we mentioned in our video last week, the long-term trend is still bearish, so the short-term rebound of the market was an excellent shorting opportunity.

And those shorts have paid off, when markets plunged after the FOMC, and all shorts are deeply in the money now. If the markets continue to fall, this could end up being our most profitable month this year!

Next week, the strategy largely remains the same, which is to accumulate more short positions on any pullbacks.

Stay tuned for more profitable trading opportunities in our Daily Trading Signals Telegram channel!

[Photo: Melbourne, Australia – See my full travel photo log!]

For our weekly market wrap, we go through some of the trade calls and analysis from last week, which gives us valuable insights for the week ahead.

We cover 3 main markets with a total of 200+ counters, so we will never run out of trading opportunities:

Forex, CFDs, commodities, bonds
US stocks, ETFs, global stock indices
Cryptocurrencies, crypto indices

By covering a broad range of markets, we can focus our attention (and capital) on whichever market currently gives the best returns.

Weekly Market Outlook Video

Weekly Market Outlook (17 September 2022)
? High CPI numbers bad for risk assets
? FOMC on 21 Sept – more rate hikes coming
? Long-term bearish for stocks, crypto, REITs, commods, etc

Weekly Portfolio Update

Weekly Portfolio Update (17 September 2022)

Currently bearish on stocks and REITs, accumulating short positions. Most of cash is held in USD since it is the strongest.

Forex & Commodities Market Highlights

AUDUSD Crossing 0.66701
Aussie vs. US Dollar
Break new lows!

USDSGD Crossing 1.41091
US Dollar vs SG Dollar
Break new highs!

USDSGD breaking new highs, which is why I have been advocating holding USD for the past few months. ????

Like I mentioned many times before, EURUSD is a good short on pullbacks.

US Dollar Index (DXY) poised to continue heading up, as markets eye the FOMC tonight.

Stock & Bond Market Highlights

https://www.investing.com/analysis/fomc-meeting-preview-100bps-unlikely-but-longer-rate-hike-path-in-play-200630031

Crypto Market Highlights

ETHUSD Crossing 1350.76
Ethereum
Break swing low

Good luck, and may next week bring more excellent profits!

Weekly Market Wrap: Inflation Continues to Plague Markets!

https://www.wsj.com/articles/global-stocks-markets-dow-update-09-14-2022-11663139340

With inflation continuing to plague markets, based on the most recent CPI numbers, the Fed is most likely going to continue hiking interest rates, which is bearish for the markets.

In my last weekly market outlook video, I mentioned that the long-term trend is still bearish, and we should either by waiting to short, or short-term trading positions if going long (to ride the bullish momentum early last week).

Now that the market bears are back in full force, we have started to initiate short positions, and I expect to be adding more short positions on pullbacks as prices continue to fall.

Stay tuned for more updates in our “Daily Trading Signals” Telegram channel!

[Photo: Kutna Hora, Czech Republic – See my full travel photo log!]

For our weekly market wrap, we go through some of the trade calls and analysis from last week, which gives us valuable insights for the week ahead.

We cover 3 main markets with a total of 200+ counters, so we will never run out of trading opportunities:

Forex, CFDs, commodities, bonds
US stocks, ETFs, global stock indices
Cryptocurrencies, crypto indices

By covering a broad range of markets, we can focus our attention (and capital) on whichever market currently gives the best returns.

Weekly Market Outlook Video

Weekly Market Outlook (12 September 2022)
? FOMC on 21 Sept – more rate hikes coming
? Ethereum merge in a few days
? Long-term bearish for stocks, crypto, REITs, commods, etc
? Short-term bullishness (swing trading opportunities)

Weekly Portfolio Update

Weekly Portfolio Update (12 September 2022)

Not having much positions now as I am overseas, and the market direction is not very clear yet.

Forex & Commodities Market Highlights

AUDUSD Crossing 0.69137
Aussie vs. US Dollar
Break swing high

NZDCHF Crossing 0.58200
NZ Dollar vs. Swiss France
TP1 for short positions

Stock & Bond Market Highlights

Stock indices (S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100) are still in a long-term bear trend, but short-term bullishness provides swing trading opportunities.

Use a smaller timeframe to enter on pullbacks, with a tight stoploss.

Crypto Market Highlights

As the merge approaches (in about 3 days), watch out for the critical zone for Ethereum (ETHUSD) to see if the downtrend resumes after the merge.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/ethereum-ready-for-the-merge-as-last-shadow-fork-completes-successfully

Good luck, and may next week bring more excellent profits!

Weekly Market Wrap: Is the Market Oversold?

https://www.wsj.com/articles/recessions-investments-best-worst-performers-11662061934

After the large sell-off last week in stocks and crypto, it won’t be surprising if we see a short-tern rebound the upcoming week.

Overall, the long-term trend is still bearish.

The key figure to watch is still inflation, and how aggressively the Fed will hike rates on 21 September.

Many of short trades have hit TP1 or TP2, so it was a good idea to take profits before the rebound happened.

Now, we can either trade the short-term momentum, or just stand aside and wait for the long-term bear trend to resume before taking new short positions.

I have placed all the triggers and trade alerts in my “Daily Trading Signals”, so you will know when it happens. Stay tuned!

[Photo: Siem Reap, Cambodia – See my full travel photo log!]

For our weekly market wrap, we go through some of the trade calls and analysis from last week, which gives us valuable insights for the week ahead.

We cover 3 main markets with a total of 200+ counters, so we will never run out of trading opportunities:

Forex, CFDs, commodities, bonds
US stocks, ETFs, global stock indices
Cryptocurrencies, crypto indices

By covering a broad range of markets, we can focus our attention (and capital) on whichever market currently gives the best returns.

Weekly Market Outlook Video

Weekly Market Outlook (02 September 2022)
? FOMC on 21 Sept – more rate hikes coming
? Bullish for USD
? Bearish for stocks, crypto, REITs, commods, etc

Weekly Portfolio Update

Weekly Portfolio Update (02 September 2022)

Recession Results: How investment categories perform going into a recession, and during it.

Forex & Commodities Market Highlights

Holding about 75% of my assets in USD at the moment.

As mentioned in our last video, the CHFJPY finally broke out to new highs. Congrats!

The Dollar Index (DXY) continues to make new highs!

Stock & Bond Market Highlights

https://www.wsj.com/articles/global-stocks-markets-dow-update-09-08-2022-11662636970

Crypto Market Highlights

Following up on Ethereum (ETHUSD), it has formed a bearish pinbar near both the EMAs, making it a good shorting opportunity.

I might not have internet for the next few days, but I will be taking this short and placing a stoploss.

All the best!

Good luck, and may next week bring more excellent profits!