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Market analysis, insights and trading ideas on various markets and products!

Spencer Li

Weekly Market Wrap: Is Inflation Heading Back Up Again?

Market Analysis
Thumbnail banner weekly market wrap x3

Thumbnail banner weekly market wrap x3

For subscribers of our “Daily Trading Signals”, we now also include a “Weekly Market Report”, where we provide a weekly deep-dive on the market, including fundamentals, technicals, economics, and portfolio management:

Click here for last week’s market report (11 September 2023)
Click here to subscribe for the latest market report (18 September 2023)
Click here to see the archives of all our past market reports

Market Recap & Upcoming Week

Last week, the financial landscape exhibited a complex interplay between inflationary pressures and robust market dynamics. Despite concerns over escalating inflation, spearheaded by spiraling fuel costs, the US stock markets experienced an upswing, with investors holding onto optimism bolstered by a strong U.S. consumer base and a steady labor market.

The landscape was further buoyed by a surge in consumer spending in August, reflecting a resilient U.S economy even as suppliers confronted rising costs. However, the European Central Bank took a firm stance against inflation by implementing a historic interest rate hike, leading to significant fluctuations in the Eurozone’s financial sphere. This strategy contrasted with expectations regarding the Federal Reserve’s approach in the upcoming meeting, with anticipations leaning towards a maintenance of the current rates, rather than an increase. Concurrently, the bond market exhibited signs of caution, witnessing yields nearing the high levels last seen during the 2008 crisis.

Elsewhere in the corporate sector, there was a noticeable rally in the stocks of transportation and travel companies, a trend illustrative of the undying consumer penchant for travel despite burgeoning fuel costs. Companies like Norwegian Cruise Lines and Carnival celebrated stock climbs, while Booking Holdings enjoyed a hike in its stock price.

Notably, the market’s reception to the inflation uptick was predominantly positive, with indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite recording substantial gains, a movement tied to the potentially volatile nature of the primary inflation driver – rising fuel costs. Moreover, the global market reactions post the ECB’s rate hike were mixed, inducing a decline in the euro value while catalyzing a rally in the Eurozone bond market, and facilitating gains in the FTSE 100 and Stoxx Europe 50. Moving forward, the financial narrative remains riveted on the pivotal decisions of central banks globally and the consequent market reactions, with a keen eye on the indicators revealing the health of the U.S. and European economies.

This week all eyes are set on the world of finance as both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England gear up for their respective policy meetings. On Tuesday, Federal Reserve policymakers convene for the FOMC meeting, eagerly awaited by investors and market spectators alike, with the potent interest rate decision expected to be revealed on Wednesday.

Adding to the week’s monetary narrative, the Bank of England will be holding its own policy discussion on Thursday, with analysts around the globe anticipating the outcomes and its potential ramifications on the financial markets. In tandem with these pivotal meetings, the economic landscape will be further delineated through updates on the housing market; a sector demonstrating notable dynamism and a pulse on economic health. Details on building permits, housing starts, and existing home sales for August will be unveiled, offering a granular view of the sector’s current standing.

In addition to the governmental economic focus, the corporate sector is also bracing for a notable week with heavy hitters such as FedEx, AutoZone, and General Mills slated to report their earnings. Market analysts and investors will be keenly focusing on these reports to gauge the health and performance of these industry giants amidst the broader economic contexts laid out by the monetary policy decisions.

 

Subscribe for real-time alerts and weekly reports:
👉🏻 https://synapsetrading.com/daily-trading-signals

 

0 Comments/by Spencer Li
https://synapsetrading.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/Thumbnail-banner-weekly-market-wrap-x3.png 630 1200 Spencer Li https://synapsetrading.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/logo.jpg Spencer Li2023-09-20 07:07:562023-09-24 15:41:59Weekly Market Wrap: Is Inflation Heading Back Up Again?
The Synapse Network

Stoller Average Range Channel (STARC) Bands

Market Analysis

Commonly called STARC Bands, Stoller Average Range Channel Bands, developed by Manning Stoller, are two bands applied above and below a simple moving average (SMA) of an asset’s price.

The upper band is created by adding the value of the average true range (ATR), or a multiple of it.

The lower band is created by subtracting the value of the ATR from the SMA.

The channel created by the bands can provide traders with ideas on when to buy or sell.

During an overall uptrend, buying near the lower band and selling near the top band is favorable.

STARC bands can provide insight for both ranging and trending markets.

The Formula for Stoller Average Range Channel (STARC) Bands

STARC Band + = SMA + (Multiplier × ATR)
STARC Band – = SMA − (Multiplier × ATR)

Where:
SMA = Simple moving average, with length typically between five and 10 periods
ATR = Average True Range
Multiplier = Factor to apply to ATR – two is common but can be adjusted for personal preference

How to Calculate STARC Bands

  1. Choose an SMA length. Five to 10 periods are common for STARC Bands.
  2. Choose an ATR multiple. Two times ATR is common, although this can be adjusted as needed.
  3. Calculate the SMA.
  4. Calculate the ATR, and then multiply it by the multiple chosen.
  5. Add the ATR x multiple to the SMA to get STARC Band+.
  6. Subtract the ATR x multiple from the SMA to get STARC Band-.
  7. Calculate the new values as each period ends.

What Do STARC Bands Tell You?

STARC bands are a type of envelope channel that provides potential support and resistance levels.

The top band is considered to show the security’s resistance price level, and the bottom band is considered to show the security’s support price level.

The basic trading strategy is to sell when the security’s price is near the resistance band and buy when the security’s price is near the support band.

Favor this strategy when the price is in an overall uptrend or when the price is ranging.

When the price is in an overall downtrend, favor shorting near the upper resistance band and covering near the lower support band.

One thing to be aware of is that the price can move along a band for extended periods of time.

This may mean a trade that looks good at the moment could turn out to be quite poor as the price continues to move along the band.

For example, imagine selling a long position when the price reaches the upper band, only to watch as the price and upper band continue to move higher for some time.

Traders can use various average true range multipliers to influence the width of the bands.

The larger the multiple, the wider the bands.

The smaller the multiple, the tighter the bands.

Longer-term traders may prefer wider bands, while shorter-term traders may prefer narrow bands to potentially catch more trading opportunities.

Difference Between STARC Bands and Bollinger Bands®

STARC bands and Bollinger Bands® are similar in that they create bands around a simple moving average.

STARC bands add and subtract an ATR multiple to form the bands.

Bollinger Bands® add and subtract a standard deviation multiple to form the upper and lower bands.

The interpretation of the bands is similar, but the calculations are different.

Therefore, the two indicators will look slightly different on a chart.

Limitations of Using STARC Bands

While STARC bands can be used to signal potential trading opportunities near the bands, the main problem is that the bands are always moving.

Buying near the lower band may look good, but if the lower band and price keep dropping, then the signal provided was poor.

This will happen frequently, as the price will reach a band, but then the band keeps moving in that direction.

To help remedy this issue, utilize stop losses when taking trades near the bands, as this will help control risk if the price keeps moving against the position.

Also, instead of taking profits when the price reaches a band, consider a tight trailing stop loss instead.

This allows for the price to continue moving along the band, which increases profit.

If the price does reverse, a profit is still locked in.

Concluding Thoughts

STARC bands can be a useful tool in technical analysis, providing traders with insight into potential support and resistance levels in both trending and ranging markets.

However, traders should be cautious of the limitations, as the moving bands can lead to poor signals if the price continues to move in the direction of the band.

Combining STARC bands with other technical indicators and using stop-loss strategies can help traders maximize their profits and manage risk effectively.

0 Comments/by The Synapse Network
https://synapsetrading.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/logo.jpg 0 0 The Synapse Network https://synapsetrading.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/logo.jpg The Synapse Network2023-09-16 00:40:192024-09-16 00:43:15Stoller Average Range Channel (STARC) Bands
Spencer Li

Weekly Market Wrap: Strength Returns to Stocks & USD!

Market Analysis
Thumbnail banner weekly market wrap x3

Thumbnail banner weekly market wrap x3

For subscribers of our “Daily Trading Signals”, we now also include a “Weekly Market Report”, where we provide a weekly deep-dive on the market, including fundamentals, technicals, economics, and portfolio management:

Click here for last week’s market report (04 September 2023)
Click here to subscribe for the latest market report (11 September 2023)
Click here to see the archives of all our past market reports

Market Recap & Upcoming Week

Last week saw a discernible shift in economic tides, particularly visible in the jolt in interest rates shaking the post-pandemic market landscape.

The Federal Reserve noted a sharp rise in rates, witnessing a stark ascent to between 5.25% and 5.5%, a scenario contrasting sharply with the average 0.5% observed from 2009 to 2021. While this phenomenon signals promising yields for retirees gravitating towards traditionally safer investments, a cloud hangs over corporates and individuals bracing for heightened costs in refinancing and credit services.

Moreover, the public and private sectors are threading carefully amidst potential vulnerabilities, including an impending significant proportion of federal debt maturing in a short span and the tremors felt by some regional banks teetering on collapse.

On the global stage, last week bore witness to concerted efforts by the Chinese government to rejuvenate its languishing property sector, a move that paid dividends as indicated by the uptick in Chinese stock indexes; the Shanghai Composite Index and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index both charted positive territories with gains of 1.4% and 2.5% respectively.

In parallel, the international markets were attuned to the repercussions of abrupt oil production cuts initiated by Saudi Arabia and Russia, a strategy that propelled diesel prices to spiral over 40% in the U.S. and Europe since May. Europe found itself in a tight spot, grappling with the dual challenges of sanction repercussions post the Ukraine invasion and a heightened dependency on Russian oil resources.

The ramifications of these oil cuts echoed in the trading circles, with a notable surge in trading activities around diesel and a piqued interest in heating-oil futures. Traders and consumers alike would have been wise to keep a close eye on these developments, which hint at a potentially challenging road ahead punctuated with inflated consumer and transportation costs.

For next week, all eyes will be trained on the forthcoming inflation readings for August, a significant indicator of the economic trajectory as we navigate the latter half of 2023.

Investors and market spectators alike will be keen to parse through the details of last month’s retail sales figures, a vital marker for economic health, particularly in assessing consumer confidence levels amidst fluctuating market dynamics.

Adding another layer to the economic narrative, the European Central Bank (ECB) is slated to announce its interest rate decision, a verdict that holds considerable sway in determining the economic policy landscape in Europe.

Simultaneously, the tech industry is abuzz with anticipation as we approach Apple’s annual fall event, an occasion that has historically been the birthplace of several groundbreaking products and innovations. Enthusiasts and professionals alike are holding their breaths for what is expected to be a reveal of Apple’s latest line of products, potentially setting new benchmarks in technological innovation.

 

Daily Trading Signals (Highlights)

We cover 3 main markets with a total of 200+ counters, so we will never run out of trading opportunities:

  • Forex, CFDs, commodities, bonds
  • US stocks, ETFs, global stock indices
  • Cryptocurrencies, crypto indices

By covering a broad range of markets, we can focus our attention (and capital) on whichever market currently gives the best returns.

 

Trading Signals USDCNY 080923

USDCNY – As mentioned in the weekly video, after the false downside breakdown which failed, it is a bullish sign and true enough prices just broke to new all-time highs! 💰🔥💪🏻

 

Trading Signals DBC 080923

Commodities ETF (DBC) – Following up, nice strong breakout as predicted! 💰🔥💪🏻

 

Trading Signals AUDUSD 080923

AUDUSD – After breaking down from the bear flag, prices look poised to head lower.

 

Trading Signals GBPUSD 080923

GBPUSD – Prices breaking new lows after breaking down from descending triangle.

 

Subscribe for real-time alerts and weekly reports:
👉🏻 https://synapsetrading.com/daily-trading-signals

0 Comments/by Spencer Li
https://synapsetrading.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/Thumbnail-banner-weekly-market-wrap-x3.png 630 1200 Spencer Li https://synapsetrading.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/logo.jpg Spencer Li2023-09-11 04:42:352023-09-17 14:47:07Weekly Market Wrap: Strength Returns to Stocks & USD!
Spencer Li

Weekly Market Wrap: Strong NFP Jobs Data Boosts Stock Markets!

Market Analysis
Thumbnail banner weekly market wrap x3

Thumbnail banner weekly market wrap x3

For subscribers of our “Daily Trading Signals”, we now also include a “Weekly Market Report”, where we provide a weekly deep-dive on the market, including fundamentals, technicals, economics, and portfolio management:

Click here for last week’s market report (28 August 2023)
Click here to subscribe for the latest market report (04 September 2023)
Click here to see the archives of all our past market reports

Market Recap & Upcoming Week

Last week was filled with pivotal financial events, with key remarks and strategic decisions driving markets across the globe. At the heart of the discussions was the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance on rates. Chair Jerome Powell, during his speech at both Jackson Hole and the Kansas City Fed’s annual symposium, highlighted concerns over persistent inflation, suggesting that high interest rates might continue.

On the jobs front, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) announced on Friday that the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) saw an increase of 187,000 in August, surpassing the anticipated market forecast of 170,000.

While the stock markets showed resilience by recording gains in major indices like the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq, the financial community remains divided on the Fed’s future actions. Speculations have pushed short-term Treasury yields slightly higher, and all eyes are set on upcoming inflation and job data.

UBS made headlines with its record $29 billion net profit following the acquisition of Credit Suisse, solidifying its stature in global wealth management. The successful integration and optimistic future projections indicate a prosperous path ahead for UBS.

In international updates, China took decisive steps to boost its capital markets. The government’s announcement of a tax cut on trading was met with positivity, as evidenced by the notable jump in the CSI 300 Index and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index. This move comes at a crucial time, given China’s faltering economy and recent challenges in the stock market.

As we approach the upcoming week, investors should keep a vigilant eye on the housing and energy sectors. Do take note that it will be a slightly shorter trading week, as U.S. equity markets remain closed for Labor Day.

PMI surveys from S&P Global and the ISM, coupled with the Fed’s Beige Book and China’s inflation data, will provide crucial insights into global economic health. Furthermore, earnings reports from Gamestop, American Eagle Outfitters, and Kroger are set to roll out, potentially setting the tone for retail sector dynamics in the latter part of the year.

 

 

Daily Trading Signals (Highlights)

We cover 3 main markets with a total of 200+ counters, so we will never run out of trading opportunities:

  • Forex, CFDs, commodities, bonds
  • US stocks, ETFs, global stock indices
  • Cryptocurrencies, crypto indices

By covering a broad range of markets, we can focus our attention (and capital) on whichever market currently gives the best returns.

 

trading signals AUDCAD 010923

AUDCAD – Potential shorting opportunity to look out for.

 

trading signals DBC 010923

Commodities ETF (DBC) – After breaking the bearish trendline, prices are now forming a cup and handle accumulation pattern.

 

trading signals US100 010923

NASDAQ 100 (US100) – Following up on this trade entry, it is now in the money, and prices are likely to continue heading up to test the previous high. 💰🔥💪🏻

 

trading signals USDCHF 010923

USDCHF – Keep an eye for a potential bear flag breakdown.

 

Subscribe for real-time alerts and weekly reports:
👉🏻 https://synapsetrading.com/daily-trading-signals

0 Comments/by Spencer Li
https://synapsetrading.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/Thumbnail-banner-weekly-market-wrap-x3.png 630 1200 Spencer Li https://synapsetrading.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/logo.jpg Spencer Li2023-09-04 07:59:482023-09-09 14:10:45Weekly Market Wrap: Strong NFP Jobs Data Boosts Stock Markets!
The Synapse Network

Tower Top & Tower Bottom

Market Analysis

Candlestick patterns are an essential component of technical analysis, offering traders insights into potential market reversals. While relying solely on candlestick patterns may be unstable, they can significantly supplement a well-rounded trading system that incorporates other strategies. Among these patterns, the Tower Top and Tower Bottom are classic reversal formations that indicate a change in market sentiment.

Tower top candlestick pattern

Tower Top Candlestick Pattern

The Tower Top candlestick pattern signals a potential reversal from a bullish to a bearish trend.

Formation:

  • The pattern starts with a strong bullish movement, typically represented by a large green candlestick.
  • This is followed by a period of sideways movement, characterized by small candlesticks, often of varying colors and sizes, indicating market indecision.
  • The pattern culminates with one or more large bearish candlesticks that break the prior support levels, suggesting that the upward momentum has ended and a downtrend is beginning.

Key Characteristics:

  • The pattern often appears after a significant upward movement, marked by several large green candlesticks.
  • It signals a bearish reversal, indicating that buyers are losing momentum and sellers are starting to take control.
  • The pattern is confirmed if the final bearish candlestick is long, signaling a strong move downward.

Chart Example:
A typical Tower Top pattern may include a sequence of small-bodied candlesticks following a large bullish candlestick. The bearish candlestick at the end of the pattern usually marks the start of a downtrend, particularly if it breaks below the lows of the preceding small-bodied candlesticks.

Notes:

  • The Tower Top is most reliable when it occurs after a significant price increase.
  • It does not require multiple large bearish candlesticks for confirmation; one strong bearish candlestick is often sufficient.
  • The pattern is invalidated if the final bearish candlestick is not long enough to signal a clear reversal.

Tower bottom candlestick pattern

Tower Bottom Candlestick Pattern

The Tower Bottom is the bullish counterpart to the Tower Top, indicating a potential reversal from a bearish to a bullish trend.

Formation:

  • The pattern begins with a strong downward movement, usually represented by a large red candlestick.
  • This is followed by a series of smaller candlesticks that indicate a slowdown in the downward momentum, often moving sideways.
  • The pattern is completed by a large bullish candlestick that closes near or above the levels of the preceding smaller candlesticks, suggesting that the downtrend has ended and an uptrend is beginning.

Key Characteristics:

  • The Tower Bottom typically forms at the end of a prolonged downtrend.
  • It suggests that sellers are losing momentum and buyers are starting to regain control.
  • The pattern is confirmed when the final bullish candlestick is large, signaling a strong upward move.

Chart Example:
In a Tower Bottom pattern, you may observe a large red candlestick followed by several smaller bearish candlesticks. The pattern is confirmed when a large bullish candlestick emerges, closing near the levels of the initial large red candlestick, signaling the start of an uptrend.

Notes:

  • The Tower Bottom is most effective when it follows a significant price decline.
  • The pattern may be preceded by a Bullish Harami, which can act as an early indicator of the upcoming reversal.
  • The pattern is invalidated if the final bullish candlestick does not show a strong reversal.

Limitations

While Tower Top and Tower Bottom patterns can be effective when correctly identified, they also carry the risk of misinterpretation.

Common Pitfalls:

  • Misreading the pattern can lead to premature exits or entries, resulting in potential losses.
  • Patience is crucial when identifying these patterns, as a failed Tower Top or Bottom can result in inaccurate predictions of market direction.

Key Considerations:

  • Ensure that the pattern is supported by other technical indicators or significant support/resistance levels before making trading decisions.
  • Avoid making hasty conclusions based solely on the appearance of two consecutive peaks or troughs.

Concluding Thoughts

The Tower Top and Tower Bottom candlestick patterns are powerful tools for identifying potential market reversals.

When used correctly, they can provide valuable insights into shifts in market sentiment, helping traders anticipate changes in trend direction.

However, these patterns should be used in conjunction with other technical indicators and a solid understanding of market dynamics to maximize their effectiveness and minimize the risk of misinterpretation.

0 Comments/by The Synapse Network
https://synapsetrading.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/logo.jpg 0 0 The Synapse Network https://synapsetrading.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/logo.jpg The Synapse Network2023-09-02 17:41:002024-09-02 17:43:39Tower Top & Tower Bottom
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