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Spencer Li

How to Use TradingView: A Beginner’s Guide to Charts, Plans and Alerts

Trading Foundations
How to use TradingView - trading tools

Set up a clean chart, scan for stocks and let alerts do the watching, plus the sums on whether the free plan is enough

Published: 17 October 2026 · Last updated: 15 September 2026 · By Spencer Li, CFTe

Disclosure: one link in this post is our TradingView referral link, marked “(referral link)”. If you sign up for a paid plan through it, Synapse may earn a referral reward. TradingView did not pay for this post or review it.


TradingView is charting software that runs in your browser and on your phone. You use it to look at price charts, add indicators, scan for stocks and set alerts. You do not trade through it in this guide. You place the trade with your broker.

So how do you use it? Start with three jobs: chart, scan and alert. Set up one clean chart layout you can read in seconds. Use a screener or a watchlist to find the few stocks worth looking at today. Then set price alerts so the software watches the levels and you do not have to. The free Basic plan covers all three for a beginner. A paid plan starts to make sense when you hit its limits, and below are the sums that tell you when.

Scan, chart, alert, then step away. Summary card for the post: How to Use TradingView: A Beginner's Guide to Charts, Plans and Alerts.

How do you set up your first TradingView chart?

Open the site, search for a ticker in the box at the top, and you have a chart. Now make it readable.

  1. Pick daily candles. If you swing trade, the daily chart is the one that matters. Choose the daily interval in the timeframe menu above the chart.
  2. Add a few indicators. Many swing traders use three moving averages, the 20, 50 and 200-day EMAs, to see the trend at a glance. Open the indicators menu on the top toolbar, search for “EMA”, and add each one with its length.
  3. Save the layout. TradingView keeps saved layouts in your account, so every chart you open looks the same.

That last step matters more than it sounds, because when every chart you open has the same layout and the same lines in the same places, you stop re-learning the screen and start reading the price. If you want to know what each indicator is actually measuring, the technical indicators guide walks through the main ones. And if you prefer bare charts, the price action trading guide shows how to read them with almost nothing added.

How does TradingView fit a 15-minute routine?

Each of the three jobs has a place in TradingView.

JobWhat you doWhere in TradingView
ChartRead the trend and the setup on one clean layoutThe chart, with a saved layout
ScanFind the few stocks worth a look todayThe stock screener, or a watchlist
AlertLet the software watch your levelsThe alert button on the top toolbar, or a right-click on the chart

The order matters. Scan first to find candidates, chart each one to check the setup, then set an alert on the level that would make you act. After that, close the laptop. The alert tells you when to come back.

How do you scan for stocks in TradingView?

TradingView has a built-in stock screener. You pick filters, such as price, volume and how far a stock sits from its moving averages, and it returns a list.

You can also write your own screener in TradingView’s Pine scripting language. You do not need code to start, though. The built-in screener’s filters do the first cut well enough. Our post on how to find stocks to swing trade gives the settings for that first cut, step by step.

Save the stocks that pass into a watchlist. That list is what you chart and alert on, and it should be short. If your list has 60 names, you will not look at any of them properly.

How do you set an alert?

Right-click on a price level on the chart and choose “Add alert”, or use the alert button on the top toolbar. The shortcut is Alt + A on Windows and Option + A on a Mac. Pick the condition, such as price crossing a level, and how you want to be told: a pop-up, an email or a notification in the phone app.

Now do the sum that decides your plan. Say your watchlist has 20 stocks and you want one alert on each. The free Basic plan gives you 3 price alerts. That covers 3 of your 20 stocks, so you would be checking the other 17 by hand. The Essential plan gives you 20 alerts, which covers the whole list.

A watchlist of 20 stocks as squares: 3 are covered by the free plan's alerts and the other 17 must be checked by hand
On a 20-stock watchlist, the free plan’s 3 alerts leave 17 stocks to check by hand.

So alerts, more than indicators, are usually the first limit a swing trader hits. They are also the feature that saves the most time, because an alert sitting on a level lets you get on with your day and come back only when the price has done the thing you were waiting for.

Is the free version of TradingView enough?

For a beginner, yes. Here are the plans as TradingView showed them to a Singapore visitor on 17 October 2026, per month when billed annually.

PlanPrice a monthCharts per tabIndicators per chartPrice alertsHistorical bars
BasicS$01235K
EssentialS$16.65252010K
PlusS$32.4941010010K
PremiumS$64.9982540020K
UltimateS$259.9916501,00040K

Read two columns first. Indicators per chart: Basic allows 2. Three moving averages are already one over that, so on the free plan you would drop one or combine them. Price alerts: as above, 3 alerts will not cover a real watchlist.

Then look at what a year costs. Essential is about S$200 a year. Plus is about S$390. Premium is about S$780. Most swing traders who need more alerts and a few more indicators will find Essential or Plus covers them. Premium and Ultimate are built for people running many charts and hundreds of alerts at once.

Prices change, so check the current numbers on TradingView’s pricing page before you decide. If you do upgrade, you can use our TradingView link (referral link). That is a referral link, so Synapse may earn a reward if you sign up for a paid plan through it. The free plan is still the right place to start.

If you want the daily routine that ties the chart, the scan and the alerts together, our free 15-Minute Swing Trader’s Checklist lays it out step by step. Get the free checklist →

Can you trust TradingView’s strategy tester?

A trader on Reddit asked exactly this in August 2026: “Is tradingview strategy tester reliable?”

The tester does what you tell it. It runs your rules over past bars and reports the result. The risk is in what you tell it. A strategy tuned until the curve looks perfect on past data usually performs worse on new data. And a test that rests on a handful of trades proves very little about what the same rules will do over the next hundred.

So treat the tester as a first filter, never as proof. Check how many trades the result rests on, include costs, and see if the rules still work on a different period. Our post on the law of large numbers in trading explains why the trade count matters more than the headline return.

So how should a beginner use TradingView?

Use it for three jobs, in order. Scan for a short list. Chart each name on one clean layout. Set alerts on the levels that matter, then step away.

Start on the free plan. When you find yourself checking stocks by hand because you ran out of alerts, that is the sign the paid plan would save you time. For the rest of the software and broker setup we use, see our trading tools and resources guide.

How many of the stocks on your watchlist could you stop staring at this week, if an alert were watching them for you?

FAQ

Is TradingView free?

Yes. The Basic plan costs nothing and gives you 1 chart per tab, 2 indicators per chart and 3 price alerts, as shown on TradingView’s pricing page on 17 October 2026.

Can you trade on TradingView?

TradingView is charting software. In this guide, you use it to analyse and set alerts, then place the trade through your broker.

Which TradingView plan is best for swing trading?

It depends on how many stocks you track. If you want an alert on each of about 20 stocks, the Essential plan’s 20 alerts fit. If you track more, or use more than 5 indicators, Plus is the next step.

How many alerts do you get on TradingView for free?

The Basic plan gives 3 price alerts, according to TradingView’s pricing page on 17 October 2026.

Is TradingView’s strategy tester accurate?

It runs your rules faithfully, but the result is only as good as the test. Check the number of trades, include costs, and test on a different period before you trust it.

Go deeper

TradingView is the tool. The routine is what makes it work. The free 15-Minute Swing Trader’s Checklist gives you the daily scan, the questions to ask before every trade, and the five rules that keep you in the game.


About the author. Spencer Li is The 15-Minute Trader and the founder of Synapse Trading. He is a Certified Financial Technician (CFTe) with 15+ years of trading, run from 70+ countries. He holds a B.Acc and B.BM from SMU. Every trade he takes is public, dated, losses left in. He teaches low-risk swing trading in 15 minutes a day, one system for any market.

Educational content only, not personalised financial advice. Trading carries risk, including loss of capital. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Synapse Trading is not licensed or regulated by MAS.

by Spencer Li
https://synapsetrading.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/how-to-use-tradingview-card.webp 630 1200 Spencer Li https://synapsetrading.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/synapse-logo-horizontal-light.png Spencer Li2026-05-11 12:39:332026-09-15 19:02:37How to Use TradingView: A Beginner’s Guide to Charts, Plans and Alerts
Spencer Li

The Little Book That Beats the Market Summary: Joel Greenblatt’s Magic Formula

Trading Foundations
Greenblatt's magic formula - book summary

Two numbers, one ranking, and a holding rule that most readers break

Published: 17 October 2026 · Last updated: 1 September 2026 · By Spencer Li, CFTe


What is The Little Book That Beats the Market about? Joel Greenblatt’s book teaches one idea: buy good companies at bargain prices, and keep doing it for years. He turns that idea into a simple ranking he calls the magic formula. It scores companies on 2 numbers, how much profit the business earns on the capital it uses, and how cheap the company is next to those profits.

In his test from 1988 to 2004, a portfolio of about 30 top-ranked stocks returned about 30.8% a year, against about 12.3% for the market average. But the book’s most useful chapter is about the bad years. The formula trailed the market in about 1 year out of every 4, and the book warns how hard it is to keep going through those stretches.

This summary covers the first edition, published in 2006. A revised edition, The Little Book That Still Beats the Market, came out later.

Buy good companies at bargain prices, for years. Summary card for the post: The Little Book That Beats the Market Summary: Joel Greenblatt's Magic Formula.

Who is Joel Greenblatt?

Greenblatt is a professional investor and a teacher. The book’s introduction describes “more than 25 years of investing professionally” and “9 years of teaching at an Ivy League business school.”

The book began, in his words, as a gift to “each of my five children.” It opens with a sixth grader who sells chewing gum at school, and asks how much half of that little business would be worth to a buyer who wants a fair return. The rest of the book builds from there, in plain language, for a reader who has never valued a business before.

What are the 2 numbers in the magic formula?

The formula has 2 numbers, plus a holding rule that makes them work.

Return on capital. This asks how much the business earns on the money tied up in running it. Greenblatt measures it as operating profit (EBIT) divided by net working capital plus net fixed assets. A business that earns a lot on a little capital tends to be a good business. It often has something competitors cannot easily copy.

Earnings yield. This asks how much the business earns compared with what you pay for all of it. Greenblatt uses operating profit divided by enterprise value, which counts the company’s debt as well as its shares. A high earnings yield means you are paying a low price for those profits.

The method is a ranking. He takes a list of the largest 3,500 companies, ranks each one on both numbers, adds the 2 ranks together, and buys the companies with the best combined score. So a company that is very good but expensive, or very cheap but poor, falls down the list.

Do note why he bothers with both numbers. A cheap company with a poor business can stay cheap for a reason. A great company at a high price can still be a poor investment. The formula looks for the overlap.

Two overlapping circles, good business and cheap price; the magic formula buys only where they overlap
The magic formula buys only good businesses that also trade at cheap prices.

What did the backtest show?

Here are the headline results the book reports, for 1988 to 2004.

MeasureMagic formulaMarket averageS&P 500
Average yearly return, 1988 to 200430.8%12.3%12.4%
2002, the worst year for the formula−4.0%−24.2%−22.1%
20007.9%−16.8%−9.1%
19901.7%−16.1%−3.1%

The book’s “market average” is an equally weighted index of the same 3,500 stocks, so each stock counts the same. The S&P 500 counts large companies more heavily.

He also split all the stocks into 10 groups by their magic formula rank. The top group returned 17.9% a year and the bottom group 2.5%, with the returns falling almost step by step in between. For a ranking method, that order matters more than the headline number. It suggests the 2 measures carry real information, beyond a lucky top 30.

Do note this is a backtest. The author ran it on past data before the book came out, so returns after publication are a separate question, and the book itself spends a full chapter warning how uneven the ride can be.

If you want a short daily routine that keeps your own investing decisions planned and repeatable, our free 15-Minute Swing Trader’s Checklist covers it. Get the free checklist →

Why do most people fail with the magic formula?

This chapter is the reason to read the book. Greenblatt is blunt about how often the formula looked broken, even in his own winning test period.

In his words, the formula “fared poorly relative to the market averages in 5 out of every 12 months tested.” On a full-year basis, it “failed to beat the market averages once every four years.” For “one out of every six periods tested,” it lagged for more than 2 years in a row. And over any 3-year stretch, it “beat the market averages 95 percent of the time (160 out of 169 three-year periods tested).”

So the formula worked over 3 years. Over 1, it often failed. That is exactly the pattern that makes people give up. A year of trailing the market feels like proof that the method has stopped working.

A trader asked on an investing forum in 2019: “Has Greenblatt’s magic formula stopped working?” The book’s own figures suggest why that question keeps coming up, because by its own count the formula trailed the market in about 1 full year out of every 4, even within the test period the book reports.

That is why the holding rule matters as much as the 2 numbers. His step-by-step plan asks you to “be committed to continuing this process for a minimum of three to five years, regardless of results.”

The same idea applies to any method with an edge. A short run of results tells you very little. Our post on the law of large numbers in trading explains why.

How does Greenblatt say to use the formula?

His plan, in short:

  1. Buy 5 to 7 top-ranked companies, using only 20% to 33% of the money for the first year.
  2. Repeat every 2 to 3 months, until you hold 20 to 30 stocks after about 9 or 10 months.
  3. Sell each stock after holding it for 1 year, and replace it with a new top-ranked one.
  4. Keep going for at least 3 to 5 years.

For readers using their own stock screener, he offers a stand-in: a minimum return on assets of 25%, then the lowest price-to-earnings ratios from that group. He also says to exclude utilities and financial stocks.

Should you pick stocks with the formula at all?

Here the book takes a turn many readers do not expect. Chapter 10’s summary opens: “Most people have no business investing in individual stocks on their own!” Point 2 reads, “Reread summary point number 1.”

His reason is that valuing a business well is hard. If you cannot estimate a company’s normal earnings several years ahead, a mechanical formula or a broad index is the safer path. Readers who want the index route can start with our guide on how to choose an index ETF from Singapore.

For the value-investing ideas that sit underneath the formula, our summary of The Intelligent Investor covers Mr. Market and the margin of safety. And for the case for owning the whole market at low cost, see our summary of The Little Book of Common Sense Investing.

Concluding thoughts

The Little Book That Beats the Market is short, and the method fits on a page. The hard part is the patience. The book is honest that the formula spent long stretches looking wrong, even in its best test.

More books worth your time are in our list of the best investing and trading books.

So here is the book’s real test. Could you stick with a method that trailed the market for 2 years in a row?

FAQ

What is the magic formula in The Little Book That Beats the Market?

It ranks the largest companies on 2 measures, return on capital and earnings yield, then buys the ones with the best combined rank. The aim is good businesses at bargain prices.

Does the magic formula still work?

The book’s test covered 1988 to 2004 and was run before publication. The book itself warns the formula can trail the market for 1 to 3 years at a time, so short periods tell you little either way.

How many stocks does the magic formula hold?

The book suggests building up to 20 to 30 stocks, buying 5 to 7 at a time every 2 to 3 months, and holding each for about 1 year.

What is the difference between the 2 editions of the book?

The original came out in 2006. A revised edition, The Little Book That Still Beats the Market, followed. This summary is based on the original text.

Is The Little Book That Beats the Market good for beginners?

Yes. It was written for readers with no background in finance, and it explains return on capital and earnings yield with simple examples.

Go deeper

Any method with an edge needs a routine you can follow through the bad stretches. The free 15-Minute Swing Trader’s Checklist has the daily routine, the questions to ask before every trade, and the five rules that protect your account.


About the author. Spencer Li is The 15-Minute Trader and the founder of Synapse Trading. He is a Certified Financial Technician (CFTe) with 15+ years of trading, run from 70+ countries. He holds a B.Acc and B.BM from SMU. Every trade he takes is public, dated, losses left in. He teaches low-risk swing trading in 15 minutes a day, one system for any market.

Educational content only, not personalised financial advice. Trading carries risk, including loss of capital. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Synapse Trading is not licensed or regulated by MAS.

by Spencer Li
https://synapsetrading.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/little-book-beats-market-greenblatt-card.webp 630 1200 Spencer Li https://synapsetrading.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/synapse-logo-horizontal-light.png Spencer Li2026-04-03 12:51:192026-09-01 12:21:01The Little Book That Beats the Market Summary: Joel Greenblatt’s Magic Formula
Spencer Li

Book Summary: The Little Book of Common Sense Investing by John C. Bogle

Trading Foundations
Common-sense investing, summarised - book summary

The Little Book of Common Sense Investing (Bogle): Summary and Key Ideas

Last updated: 23 August 2026 · By Spencer Li, CFTe


“The Little Book of Common Sense Investing” by John C. Bogle argues that the surest way for an ordinary investor to build wealth is to buy a low-cost index fund (a fund that simply tracks the whole market instead of trying to beat it), hold it for decades, and stop trying to be clever. Bogle, who founded Vanguard and created the first index fund for everyday investors, makes one core case across the whole book: most investors, professionals included, cannot beat the market consistently, and the fees they pay trying to do so quietly eat their returns. So the rational move is to own the market cheaply and let compounding do the work. The book is short, plain, and almost boring on purpose. That is the point. It is a manual for getting out of your own way.

I read this as a trader, not as a passive investor, and I still think it is one of the most important investing books ever written. Here is why, what is actually in it, and how a trader should read it.

Own the market cheaply, then hold for decades. Summary card for the post: Book Summary: The Little Book of Common Sense Investing by John C. Bogle.

Who is John Bogle, and why listen to him?

John C. Bogle (1929 to 2019) founded the Vanguard Group in 1975 and launched the first index mutual fund available to the public the following year. At the time, the idea of a fund that deliberately did not try to outperform was treated as a joke. Today index funds hold trillions of dollars, and Bogle is often called the “godfather of index funds.”

What makes him credible is that he spent a career arguing against his own industry’s profit centre. Fund companies make money from fees. Bogle’s whole message was that those fees are the enemy of the investor. He built Vanguard as a client-owned structure so it could keep costs low. Hence the no-nonsense tone of the book: he is not selling you a product. He is telling you to buy the cheapest, dullest thing on the shelf.

What is the book actually about?

The book makes one argument and defends it from several angles: own the entire market through a low-cost index fund, hold for the long term, and refuse to be talked out of it.

Bogle’s reasoning runs like this. The stock market, over a long enough horizon, delivers a return that reflects the real growth of the businesses inside it. That return is there for the taking. The problem is that investors keep subtracting from it: trading costs, management fees, taxes from churn, and bad timing decisions driven by fear and greed. An index fund minimises every one of those leaks. You capture close to the full market return because you are not paying anyone to try (and usually fail) to beat it.

A full bar for the market return loses red slices to fees, costs, taxes and timing, leaving a shorter bar for what you keep
Fees, costs, taxes and bad timing each subtract from the market return you keep.

The villain of the book is cost. Bogle’s most quotable idea is simple: in investing, you get what you don’t pay for. A 2% annual fee sounds small. Over 30 years of compounding, it can quietly consume a large slice of your final wealth. That is the engine behind everything else he says.

The core ideas, without the repetition

The source material for this book lists the same handful of points many times over. Stripped down, Bogle is really making six arguments:

  1. Own the whole market. A broad index fund gives you instant diversification (spreading money across many holdings so no single one can sink you) at almost no cost.
  2. You probably can’t beat the market, and neither can the pros. The majority of actively managed funds underperform their index over the long run, especially after fees.
  3. Cost is the thing you can actually control. You cannot control returns. You can control how much you pay, so drive it to the floor.
  4. Compounding rewards time more than cleverness. Start early, stay invested, and let the math run. Trying to get rich quickly usually does the opposite.
  5. Your emotions are the other enemy. Fear and greed make people sell at bottoms and buy at tops. A simple plan you can hold through a crash beats a brilliant plan you abandon in a panic.
  6. Simplicity wins. The more moving parts, the more places to leak money and nerve. Boring is a feature.

Active funds vs index funds, over time

Here is the comparison at the heart of Bogle’s case, laid out plainly:

Active fundLow-cost index fund
GoalBeat the marketMatch the market
Typical costHigh (management fees, trading, taxes from churn)Very low
Long-run record vs indexMost underperform after feesTracks the market by design
What you rely onA manager’s skill staying hot for decadesThe market’s long-term growth
Effort to runPicking and switching fundsBuy, hold, ignore
Bogle’s verdictA bet against the oddsThe rational default

Do note that this is the long-horizon picture. Over a single year, plenty of active funds beat the index. The trouble is that the winners rarely repeat, and you cannot know in advance which ones they will be. Across decades, the cost drag compounds and the odds tilt hard toward the cheap, simple option.

How should a trader read this book?

This is the part people get wrong. They see “index funds win” and assume Bogle is telling everyone to never trade. That is not the lesson I take.

The mistake is mixing the two, treating your serious savings like a casino, or treating your trading capital like it should be left alone for 30 years.

So read Bogle as the floor. He is right that most people who try to beat the market lose to it. He is also describing exactly why a disciplined, low-cost, rules-based approach matters whether you are indexing or trading. The discipline is the same. Cut costs, control emotions, think in decades, and do not confuse activity with progress.

Here is the one honest caveat. If you are going to trade actively, Bogle’s data is a warning shot worth taking seriously. It tells you the bar is high and the average participant is below it. That should make you more rigorous about edge, sizing, and process. A fund manager with a research team usually fails to beat a dumb index. That is the company you are choosing to keep when you decide to trade, so bring a real system or don’t bother.

Where the human edge comes in

An index fund is the ultimate “let the machine do it” investment. You hand the whole job to a rules-based vehicle and walk away, and for most people that is the right call. The judgment is not in running it. It is in deciding which money belongs there and which money you are willing to actively manage, sizing each bucket to your real life, and then having the discipline to leave the long-term bucket alone through a 30% drawdown. The fund captures the market return. Whether you actually keep it is down to your behaviour, and that is the first of the Five Edges no fund can supply for you.

FAQ

What is the main message of The Little Book of Common Sense Investing?
Buy a low-cost index fund that owns the whole market, hold it for the long term, and stop trying to beat the market. Bogle argues that low cost and simplicity, not stock-picking skill, are what actually drive long-term investing success.

Is The Little Book of Common Sense Investing worth reading?
Yes, especially if you are new to investing or want to simplify a portfolio that has drifted into too many funds and fees. It is short, plain, and built around one durable idea. Experienced traders also benefit from it as a reminder of how much cost and emotion quietly cost you.

What does Bogle mean by “you get what you don’t pay for”?
He means that in investing, lower cost directly raises your net return. Because you cannot control the market’s return, the fees you avoid are the most reliable way to keep more of what the market gives. Over decades of compounding, even a small annual fee can consume a large share of your final wealth.

Does Bogle say you should never trade or pick stocks?
He argues that most investors, including professionals, fail to beat the market consistently, so for the bulk of your money, indexing is the rational default. He does not claim it is impossible to trade well, only that the odds are against the average participant, which is a reason to be disciplined rather than reckless.

Are index funds really safer than active funds?
Index funds are not immune to market crashes, since they fall with the market they track. What they remove is the extra risk of a single manager underperforming and the steady drag of high fees. Bogle’s point is about reliability and cost; you still carry market risk.


Now that you have Bogle’s case for the boring, low-cost, long-term approach, the real question is which of your money it should govern, and which money you are willing to actively trade with a real system. Have you read this one? Let me know your key takeaway in the comments.

For more, browse the full shelf: Best Investing and Trading Books of All Time.

Want a system for the active side of the ledger? Grab the free 15-Minute Swing Trading Starter Kit, the exact routine I use to scan once a day and trade any market in 15 minutes.


About the author. Spencer Li is The 15-Minute Trader and the founder of Synapse Trading. He is a Certified Financial Technician (CFTe) with 15+ years of trading, run from 70+ countries. He holds a B.Acc and B.BM from SMU. Every trade he takes is public, dated, losses left in. He teaches rules-based swing trading in 15 minutes a day, one system for any market.

Education, not financial advice. Synapse Trading is not licensed by MAS to advise on investment products. Trading carries risk of loss; past performance is not indicative of future results.


Related

Best Investing and Trading Books of All Time (pillar) · The Intelligent Investor summary

by Spencer Li
https://synapsetrading.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/common-sense-investing-bogle-card.webp 630 1200 Spencer Li https://synapsetrading.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/synapse-logo-horizontal-light.png Spencer Li2024-08-05 19:30:072026-08-23 20:59:19Book Summary: The Little Book of Common Sense Investing by John C. Bogle
Spencer Li

Book Summary: Fortune’s Formula by William Poundstone

Trading Foundations
Fortune's Formula, summarised - book summary

Fortune’s Formula by William Poundstone: the Kelly Criterion, and How Traders Actually Use It

Last updated: 25 August 2026 · By Spencer Li, CFTe


Fortune’s Formula by William Poundstone is the story of the Kelly criterion, a formula that tells you how much of your money to bet on a single opportunity to grow your bankroll fastest over the long run without going broke. John Kelly, a physicist at Bell Labs, published it in 1956. The book traces how it travelled from information theory to blackjack tables (Edward Thorp), to Wall Street, and into the hands of gamblers and investors. The core idea is simple: bet a fraction of your capital that scales with your edge. The bigger your advantage and the better your odds, the more you commit. No edge, no bet.

The practical formula for an even-money bet is f = p − q, where f is the fraction of your bankroll to stake, p is your probability of winning, and q (which is 1 − p) is your probability of losing. For payouts that are not even money, it becomes f = (bp − q) / b, where b is the odds received (your reward-to-risk). For traders, the takeaway is not the algebra. It is this: size is a function of edge, and most people who blow up were not wrong about the trade, they were wrong about the size.

Here is what the book actually teaches, and how to use Kelly without it destroying your account.

Size is a function of edge. No edge, no bet. Summary card for the post: Book Summary: Fortune's Formula by William Poundstone.

What is the Kelly criterion?

The Kelly criterion is a position-sizing rule. It answers one question: given an edge, what fraction of my capital maximises the long-term growth rate of my bankroll?

Most people size by feel. They bet big when they feel confident and small when they are scared, which usually means biggest right before the loss that hurts most. Kelly replaces the feeling with a number. You feed in your win probability and your payout, and it returns the stake that grows your money fastest over a long series of bets.

The important word is long-term growth, not expected value. You can have a positive-expectation bet and still go broke if you size it too big, because one bad streak wipes you out before the math has time to work. Kelly is the line that separates “growing as fast as possible” from “growing, but flirting with ruin.” Bet more than full Kelly and your long-run growth actually goes down while your risk goes up. That is the part most people miss.

Long-run growth rises with bet size up to a peak at full Kelly, then falls when you bet more than that
Bet more than full Kelly and your long-run growth goes down while your risk goes up.

The story behind the book

John L. Kelly Jr. published the formula in 1956 in a Bell Labs paper on information theory. He was not trying to beat casinos. He was working on the rate at which information can be transmitted over a noisy line, and the same math turned out to describe how fast a gambler with an edge should grow a bankroll.

The person who carried it into the real world was Edward Thorp, the mathematician who used it to beat blackjack (the Beat the Dealer story) and later ran a hedge fund on the same principle. Poundstone follows the formula from Bell Labs to Las Vegas to Wall Street, with a cast that includes Claude Shannon (the father of information theory), mob-connected bookmakers, and the academics who spent decades arguing about whether Kelly was genius or recklessness.

William Poundstone is a science writer and journalist who studied physics at MIT and has written for The New York Times, Harper’s and Harvard Business Review. He is also the author of Priceless: The Myth of Fair Value. Fortune’s Formula is his best-known book and Amazon’s editors named it their top nonfiction pick of 2005.

A worked example: how Kelly sizing works in practice

Say you have a setup that wins 55% of the time and pays you 1-to-1 (you risk one unit to make one unit). Plug it in:

f = (bp − q) / b = (1 × 0.55 − 0.45) / 1 = 0.10

Full Kelly says bet 10% of your bankroll on that trade. On a $10,000 account, that is $1,000 of risk. To most traders, that is a terrifyingly large number, and that reaction is correct. Full Kelly is the maximum growth size, and it comes with brutal drawdowns. A run of bad luck at 10% per trade will cut your account in half and barely register as unusual.

That is why almost nobody trades full Kelly. They trade a fraction of it.

Full Kelly vs fractional Kelly

SizingStake on the example aboveLong-run growthDrawdown / ruin riskWho uses it
Full Kelly10% of bankrollFastest, in theorySevere, swings of 50%+ are normalAlmost nobody, in practice
Half Kelly5% of bankroll~75% of full Kelly’s growthRoughly half the drawdownMany professionals
Quarter Kelly2.5% of bankrollSlower but smoothLowConservative / uncertain-edge traders

The reason half Kelly is so popular is the trade-off it offers. You give up only about a quarter of your growth rate but you cut your drawdowns roughly in half. For a real human with a real stomach and a real career, that is a far better deal than chasing the theoretical maximum.

There is a deeper reason to size down too. Full Kelly assumes you know your edge exactly. You do not. Your “55% win rate” is an estimate from a finite sample, and it is probably optimistic. When your inputs are uncertain, betting the full Kelly fraction on a wrong number can put you above full Kelly on the real number, which is the worst place to be. Sizing down is your margin of safety against your own estimation error.

The formula gives you the ceiling. Your job is to stay comfortably under it.

How traders actually apply Kelly

You do not need to plug numbers into the equation before every trade. The useful part of Kelly is the principle, and it shows up in a few concrete habits:

  • Size scales with edge. A high-conviction setup with a strong reward-to-risk gets more capital than a marginal one. Same trader, same account, different size, because the edge is different.
  • No edge, no bet. If you cannot state why you have an advantage, Kelly says the optimal stake is zero. That is the formula telling you to stand aside.
  • Risk a fixed small fraction of your account. Risking 1% to 2% of your account per trade is, in effect, a conservative fractional-Kelly rule. As your account grows or shrinks, your position size moves with it.
  • Better odds and bigger edge both raise the size, but the size is capped. Even a great setup gets a ceiling, because a string of “great” setups can still lose in a row.

The thing Kelly protects you from is the single most common way traders die: being right about direction and wrong about size. You can have a genuine edge and still go to zero by betting too much of it on each trade. Kelly is the math that says exactly how much is too much.

Where the human edge comes in

A spreadsheet will compute the Kelly fraction in a second. What it will not do is tell you that your 55% win rate is really 51% once you stop cherry-picking your sample, or that you are about to override your own sizing rule because the last three trades won and you feel invincible. The formula is the easy part. Sizing honestly, against an edge you have not flattered, and holding that size when your gut is screaming to do otherwise, is the discipline. That is the discipline and sizing edge, one of the Five Edges no formula trades for you.

Should you read Fortune’s Formula?

Yes, if you want the story and the intuition behind position sizing. It is a narrative book. You will finish it understanding why sizing matters and where the idea came from, with a cast of memorable characters along the way. What it will not give you is a step-by-step trading manual, you have to translate the principle into your own rules yourself.

I would put it on the shelf next to the practical risk-and-sizing material. Read it for the why, then build your own fractional-Kelly rule for the how.

FAQ

What is the Kelly criterion in simple terms?
It is a formula that tells you what fraction of your money to bet on an opportunity to grow your bankroll fastest over the long run without risking ruin. The bigger your edge and the better your odds, the larger the fraction. With no edge, the optimal bet is zero.

What is the Kelly criterion formula?
For an even-money bet it is f = p − q, where p is your win probability and q is your loss probability. For non-even payouts it is f = (bp − q) / b, where b is the reward-to-risk odds. The result, f, is the fraction of your bankroll to stake.

Why do professionals use fractional Kelly instead of full Kelly?
Full Kelly gives the fastest theoretical growth but produces severe drawdowns and assumes you know your edge exactly. Half Kelly keeps about 75% of the growth while roughly halving the drawdown, and it leaves a safety margin for the fact that your edge is only an estimate.

Who wrote Fortune’s Formula and what is it about?
William Poundstone, a science writer and journalist. The book tells the history of the Kelly criterion, from John Kelly at Bell Labs through Edward Thorp’s use of it to beat blackjack and run a hedge fund, and how the same math applies to gambling and investing.

Can the Kelly criterion be used for stock trading?
Yes, as a position-sizing principle rather than a precise formula. Most traders apply it as a conservative fractional version, risking a small fixed percentage of the account per trade, and sizing up only when the edge and reward-to-risk genuinely justify it.


Now that you have the formula and the half-Kelly trade-off, the real question is the one most people skip: what is your honest edge, before you flatter it? Get that number right and the sizing takes care of itself. Let me know in the comments how you size your trades.

And if you want the wider reading list this book sits on, see the pillar: Best Investing and Trading Books of All Time.

Want the system the sizing plugs into? Grab the free 15-Minute Swing Trading Starter Kit. It is the exact routine I use to scan once a day and trade any market in 15 minutes, sizing included.


About the author. Spencer Li is The 15-Minute Trader and the founder of Synapse Trading. He is a Certified Financial Technician (CFTe) with 15+ years of trading, run from 70+ countries. He holds a B.Acc and B.BM from SMU. Every trade he takes is public, dated, losses left in. He teaches rules-based swing trading in 15 minutes a day, one system for any market.

Education, not financial advice. Synapse Trading is not licensed by MAS to advise on investment products. Trading carries risk of loss; past performance is not indicative of future results.


Related

Best Investing and Trading Books of All Time (pillar) · Position sizing and risk management · Beat the Dealer by Edward Thorp · The Five Edges

by Spencer Li
https://synapsetrading.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/fortunes-formula-william-poundstone-card.webp 630 1200 Spencer Li https://synapsetrading.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/synapse-logo-horizontal-light.png Spencer Li2023-01-28 18:52:072026-08-25 20:52:43Book Summary: Fortune’s Formula by William Poundstone
Spencer Li

Book Summary: Forex Price Action Scalping by Bob Volman

Trading Foundations
Scalping forex price action - book summary

Forex Price Action Scalping by Bob Volman: Book Summary and Review

Last updated: 19 October 2026 · By Spencer Li, CFTe


“Forex Price Action Scalping” by Bob Volman is a practical, no-fluff manual for trading forex on very short timeframes using raw price action, no lagging indicators, on a tight bid-ask spread. It is best for traders who already know the basics and want a disciplined, repeatable scalping method, not for beginners or anyone uneasy with fast, high-pressure decisions. The core message is honest: scalping (taking many small, quick profits on tiny price moves) is a real skill, not a shortcut, and it asks for sharp focus, strong risk control, and emotional discipline most people underestimate. Volman teaches you to read the chart itself (support, resistance, the round number, the false break) rather than chase signals. My short verdict: a genuinely good book if scalping is the game you want to play, and a useful read even if it is not, because the price-action thinking carries over. Just go in knowing scalping is one of the harder paths in trading.

Candles fall to a round-number level, one pokes below it with a long red wick, fails, and price reverses back up
Volman reads the chart itself, like a false break at a round number, not indicator signals.

Here is what the book covers, what is worth keeping, and who should actually read it.

Scalping is a real skill, not a shortcut. Summary card for the post: Book Summary: Forex Price Action Scalping by Bob Volman.

Who is Bob Volman?

Bob Volman is an independent trader who trades for his own account, and he is widely respected for his work on price action (reading the chart’s own movement instead of relying on indicators). He trades and teaches a pure, discretionary style, and his books are treated as serious reference material by price-action traders. When a working scalper sits down to write out exactly how he reads a 70-tick chart, it is worth a careful read.

What is the book about?

The book is a complete walkthrough of one thing done well: scalping forex with price action.

It starts at the basics (what scalping is, how to read price action) and builds toward a full method, with specific setups, entry and exit rules, and a heavy focus on risk and mindset. Volman does not sell it as easy money. The main message is the opposite: scalping is potentially profitable but genuinely demanding, and it only works if you bring the right skills, knowledge, and discipline. That honesty is the best thing about the book.

10 key ideas from the book

These are the takeaways I would underline if I were reading it again.

  1. Reading market structure and price action is the foundation. Trends, support and resistance, and chart patterns come first, before anything else.
  2. Indicators are a supplement to price action. His only indicator is a 20-period EMA; the price action leads.
  3. Discipline and risk management are non-negotiable. Stop-loss orders and strict limits on capital at risk per trade are what keep you in the game.
  4. The psychology is the hard part. Controlling your emotions and holding discipline under pressure is harder than spotting the setup.
  5. Leverage cuts both ways. It can magnify profits and losses in equal measure, so use it with caution.
  6. Scalping demands total focus. You need to read charts fast and decide in real time, with no room to drift.
  7. You trade specific, defined setups. Success comes from identifying and trading defined chart patterns and price-action setups.
  8. A robust trading plan is built in advance. That plan must include risk rules and a clear plan for managing losses before they happen.
  9. Stick to the plan and avoid impulsive trades. Discipline means following your own rules even when the screen tempts you.
  10. Keep learning and adapting. Markets shift, and the scalper has to keep adjusting to current conditions.

How do you apply the teachings?

A book is only useful if it changes what you do at the screen. Here is how to put Volman’s ideas to work.

  • Trade defined chart patterns and price-action setups you can define in advance.
  • Build in risk management from the start: stop-loss orders and position sizing on every trade.
  • Write a trading plan, then actually follow it.
  • Practise discipline and emotional control as a skill, the same way you practise the setups.
  • Keep learning and adapt to current market conditions.
  • Use indicators alongside price action to refine entries and exits.
  • Cap the capital at risk on each trade, and let the stop-loss enforce it.
  • Train yourself to spot trends, support and resistance, and patterns quickly.
  • Treat leverage with respect, and know its dangers before you size up.
  • Build the speed to analyse a chart and decide in real time.

The honest catch: scalping is capital-hungry and high-pressure

There are a few things Volman is upfront about that I want to repeat, because they are the parts people skip.

Scalping aims at very small price moves, so the math only works at size. That means it tends to need a larger amount of capital, and the same leverage that lifts the profit lifts the loss. The potential for gains is matched, bar for bar, by the potential for losses.

And it is not for everyone. If you are not comfortable with fast, high-pressure, screen-glued decision-making, scalping will grind on you. There is no shame in that. Knowing it is not your style is itself a useful conclusion to reach from reading the book.

Should you read it? A quick decision table

You are…Read it?Why
A complete beginnerLaterStrong price-action foundations help first; the scalping detail will overwhelm you
An intermediate trader wanting a defined methodYesThis is the sweet spot: a complete, rules-based scalping system to study
A swing or position traderOptional, but usefulYou will not scalp, but the price-action reading (false breaks, round numbers, support/resistance) transfers cleanly
Someone who hates fast, high-pressure tradingProbably notThe method demands real-time focus you may not want to live in daily
Looking for easy, passive returnsNoScalping is one of the more demanding paths

Where the human edge comes in

Here is the part I keep coming back to. A platform can plot every level, flag every round number, and even auto-mark a clean false break for you. The reading is getting cheaper every year. What no tool hands you is the discipline to size the trade, the patience to skip the marginal setup, and the emotional control to take the stop without flinching. Volman spends as much ink on mindset as on setups for exactly this reason. The chart pattern is the easy part. Trading it like a professional is the judgment, and that is the first of the Five Edges no scanner can trade for you.

My take

Personally, I rate this book highly within its lane. It is honest, specific, and it teaches you to read the chart rather than worship an indicator, which is a habit that pays off whatever timeframe you end up trading. I do not personally scalp as my main game, I prefer rules-based swing trading where I can scan once a day and act calmly. But I still got value from how clearly Volman lays out price-action reading, and I would recommend it to any intermediate trader who is curious about short timeframes. Just keep your eyes open about the capital and the pressure it asks for.

FAQ

Is “Forex Price Action Scalping” by Bob Volman good for beginners?
Not as a first book. It is best for intermediate traders with some forex knowledge. A complete beginner should build price-action foundations first, then come back to the scalping detail.

What is forex price action scalping?
It is a style of trading forex on very short timeframes (Volman uses a 70-tick chart) by reading raw price action, support, resistance, round numbers, and false breaks, to take many small, quick profits, without relying on lagging indicators.

Do you need a lot of capital to scalp?
Generally yes. Scalping targets very small price moves, so the strategy tends to need more capital to be worthwhile, and the leverage that boosts profits boosts losses just as much.

Is the price-action method in the book useful if I do not want to scalp?
Yes. The way Volman reads charts (false breaks, round numbers, support and resistance) carries over to swing and position trading, even if you never trade a 70-tick setup.

Is scalping profitable?
It can be, but it is one of the more demanding styles. It requires sharp focus, strict risk management, and emotional discipline, and the potential for losses matches the potential for gains. It is a skill, and skills take practice.


Now that you have the summary, would you add this one to your reading list? And if you have already read it, what stuck with you most? Let me know in the comments.

If you want the wider shortlist, read the pillar: Best Investing and Trading Books of All Time.

Want a calmer way to trade than scalping? Grab the free 15-Minute Swing Trading Starter Kit, the exact routine I use to scan once a day and trade any market in 15 minutes.


About the author. Spencer Li is The 15-Minute Trader and the founder of Synapse Trading. He is a Certified Financial Technician (CFTe) with 15+ years of trading, run from 70+ countries. He holds a B.Acc and B.BM from SMU. Every trade he takes is public, dated, losses left in. He teaches rules-based swing trading in 15 minutes a day, one system for any market.

Education, not financial advice. Synapse Trading is not licensed by MAS to advise on investment products. Trading carries risk of loss; past performance is not indicative of future results.


Related

Best Investing and Trading Books of All Time (pillar) · Trading in the Zone by Mark Douglas (review) · Reminiscences of a Stock Operator (review) · Definitive Guide to Price Chart Patterns

by Spencer Li
https://synapsetrading.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/forex-price-action-scalping-bob-volman-card.webp 630 1200 Spencer Li https://synapsetrading.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/synapse-logo-horizontal-light.png Spencer Li2023-01-28 18:52:022026-10-19 10:54:39Book Summary: Forex Price Action Scalping by Bob Volman
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