Best Trading Tips Quotes from Paul Tudor Jones

Paul Tudor Jones II (born September 28, 1954) is an American hedge fund manager, conservationist and philanthropist. In 1980, he founded his hedge fund, Tudor Investment Corporation, an asset management firm which currently manages $7.8 billion (as of June 30, 2019).

As of November 2019, Forbes Magazine estimated his net worth to be US$5.3 billion, making him the 343rd richest person on the Forbes 400 and the 7th highest-earning hedge fund manager.

In this post, I will share all the best trading tips and quotes from Paul Tudor Jones, so that we can learn from his knowledge and experience.

 

Infographic PAUL TUDOR JONES Best Trading Tips and Qutoes 1

 

Here are some of the best trading tips and quotes by Paul Tudor Jones:

  1. Where you want to be is always in control, never wishing, always trading, and always first and foremost protecting your ass. That’s why most people lose money as individual investors or traders because they’re not focusing on losing money. They need to focus on the money that they have at risk and how much capital is at risk in any single investment they have. If everyone spent 90 percent of their time on that, not 90 percent of the time on pie-in-the-sky ideas on how much money they’re going to make, then they will be incredibly successful investors.
  2. I’m always thinking about losing money as opposed to making money. Don’t focus on making money, focus on protecting what you have.
  3. The most important rule is to play great defense, not great offense. Everyday I assume every position I have is wrong. I know where my stop risk points are going to be. I do that so I can define my maximum drawdown. Hopefully, I spend the rest of the day enjoying positions that are going in my direction. If they are going against me, then I have a game plan for getting out.
  4. I believe the very best money is made at the market turns. Everyone says you get killed trying to pick tops and bottoms and you make all your money by playing the trend in the middle. Well for twelve years I have been missing the meat in the middle but I have made a lot of money at tops and bottoms.
  5. If I have positions going against me, I get right out; if they are going for me, I keep them Risk control is the most important thing in trading. If you have a losing position that is making you uncomfortable, the solution is very simple: Get out, because you can always get back in.
  6. Don’t be a hero. Don’t have an ego. Always question yourself and your ability. Don’t ever feel that you are very good. The second you do, you are dead.
  7. I always believe that prices move first and fundamentals come second.
  8. And then at the end of the day, the most important thing is how good are you at risk control. Ninety-percent of any great trader is going to be the risk control.
  9. Fundamentals might be good for the first third or first 50 or 60 percent of a move, but the last third of a great bull market is typically a blow-off, whereas the mania runs wild and prices go parabolic… There is no training, classroom or otherwise, that can prepare for trading the last third of a move, whether it’s the end of a bull market or the end of a bear market.
  10. The secret to being successful from a trading perspective is to have an indefatigable and an undying and unquenchable thirst for information and knowledge.
  11. Don’t ever average losers. Decrease your trading volume when you are trading poorly; increase your volume when you are trading well. Never trade in situations where you don’t have control. For example, I don’t risk significant amounts of money in front of key reports, since that is gambling, not trading.
  12. I am more scared now that I was at any point since I began trading, because I recognize how ephemeral success can be in this business. I know that to be successful, I have to be frightened. My biggest hits have always come after I have had a great period and I started to think that I knew something.
  13. Sometimes failure is merely chasing you off the wrong road and onto the right one.
  14. First of all, never play macho man with the market. Second, never overtrade.
  15. When you get a range expansion, the market is sending you a very loud, clear signal that the market is getting ready to move in the direction of that expansion.
  16. It is not that we had any unfair knowledge that other people didn’t have, it is just that we did our homework. People just don’t want to believe that anyone can break away from the crowd and rise above mediocrity.
  17. You learn more from your losses, than from your gains.
  18. Failure was a key element to my life’s journey.
  19. I spend my day trying to make myself as happy and relaxed as I can be. If I have positions going against me, I get right out; if they are going for me, I keep them.
  20. The concept of paying one-hundred-and-something times earnings for any company for me is just anathema. Having said that, at the end of theday, your job is to buy what goes up and to sell what goes down so really who gives a damn about PE’s?
  21. Trading gives you an incredibly intense feeling of what life is all about.
  22. You adapt, evolve, compete or die.
  23. You cannot have significance in this life if it is all about you. You get your significance, you find your joy in life through service and sacrifice – it’s pure and simple.
  24. After awhile size means nothing. It gets back to whether you’re making 100% rate of return on 10k or 100 million dollars. It doesn’t make any difference.
  25. Intellectual capital will always trump financial capital.

 

Now that I have shared the best trading tips and quotes from Paul Tudor Jones, which is your favourite trading tip?

Let me know in the comments below.

 

ed seykota

If you would like to get more trading tips and quotes from all the best traders, also check out: “Best Trading Tips & Quotes from Legendary Top Traders”

 

Best Trading Tips Quotes from Ed Seykota

Edward Arthur Seykota (born August 7, 1946) is a commodities trader, who pioneered a computerized trading system for the futures market for the brokerage house he were working for.

Trading as a trend follower, Ed Seykota turned $5,000 into $15,000,000 over a 12 year time period.

Later, he decided to venture out on his own and manage a few of his client’s accounts, and the brokerage house he had been working for adopted his system for their trades.

In this post, I will share all the best trading tips and quotes from Ed Seykota, so that we can learn from his knowledge and experience.

 

Infographic Ed Seykota Best Trading Tips and Qutoes

 

Here are some of the best trading tips and quotes by Ed Seykota:

  1. If I am bullish, I neither buy on a reaction, nor wait for strength; I am already in. I turn bullish at the instant my buy stop is hit, and stay bullish until my sell stop is hit. Being bullish and not being long is illogical.
  2. Fundamentalists figure things out and anticipate change. Trend followers join the trend of the moment. Fundamentalists try to solve their feelings. Trend followers join their feelings and observe them evolve and dis-solve.
  3. The feelings we accept and enjoy rarely interfere with trading.
  4. Systems don’t need to be changed. The trick is for a trader to develop a system with which he is compatible.
  5. It can be very expensive to try to convince the markets you are right.
  6. There are old traders and there are bold traders, but there are very few old, bold traders.
  7. I would add that I consider myself and how I do things as a kind of system which, by definition, I always follow.
  8. Systems trading is ultimately discretionary. The manager still has to decide how much risk to accept, which markets to play, and how aggressively to increase and decrease the trading base as a function of equity change.
  9. Trying to trade during a losing streak is emotionally devastating. Trying to play “catch up” is lethal.
  10. The elements of good trading are: 1, cutting losses. 2, cutting losses. And 3, cutting losses. If you can follow these three rules, you may have a chance.
  11. Losing a position is aggravating, whereas losing your nerve is devastating.
  12. The markets are the same now as they were five to ten years ago because they keep changing – just like they did then.
  13. Luck plays an enormous role in trading success. Some people were lucky enough to be born smart, while others were even smarter and got born lucky.
  14. Having a quote machine is like having a slot machine at your desk – you end up feeding it all day long. I get my price data after the close each day.
  15. A losing trader can do little to transform himself into a winning trader. A losing trader is not going to want to transform himself. That’s the kind of thing winning traders do.
  16. If you can’t take a small loss, sooner or later you will take the mother of all losses.
  17. It is a happy circumstance that when nature gives us true burning desires, she also gives us the means to satisfy them. Those who want to win and lack skill can get someone with skill to help them.
  18. Risk no more that you can afford to lose, and also risk enough so that a win is meaningful.
  19. Dramatic and emotional trading experiences tend to be negative. Pride is a great banana peel, as are hope, fear, and greed. My biggest slip-ups occurred shortly after I got emotionally involved with positions.
  20. Be sensitive to subtle differences between ‘intuition’ and ‘into wishing’.
  21. The trading rules I live by are: 1. Cut losses. 2. Ride winners. 3. Keep bets small. 4. Follow the rules without question. 5. Know when to break the rules.
  22. I usually ignore advice from other traders, especially the ones who believe they are on to a “sure thing”. The old timers, who talk about “maybe there is a chance of so and so,” are often right and early.
  23. I set protective stops at the same time I enter a trade. I normally move these stops in to lock in a profit as the trend continues. Sometimes, I take profits when a market gets wild. This usually doesn’t get me out any better than waiting for my stops to close in, but it does cut down on the volatility of the portfolio, which helps calm my nerves. Losing a position is aggravating, whereas losing your nerve is devastating.
  24. I intend to risk below 5 percent on a trade, allowing for poor executions.
  25. I don’t judge success, I celebrate it. I think success has to do with finding and following one’s calling regardless of financial gain.
  26. (On losing streaks and over-trading) “Acting out this drama could be exciting. However, it also seems terribly expensive. One alternative is to keep bets small and then to systematically keep reducing risk during equity drawdowns. That way you have a gentle financial and emotional touchdown.
  27. In order of importance to me are: 1) the long term trend, 2) the current chart pattern, and 3) picking a good spot to buy or sell.
  28. Win or lose, everybody gets what they want out of the market. Some people seem to like to lose, so they win by losing money.
  29. Fundamentals that you read about are typically useless as the market has already discounted the price, and I call them “funny-mentals”. However, if you catch on early, before others believe, you might have valuable “surprise-a-mentals”.
  30. If you can’t measure it, you probably can’t manage it… Things you measure tend to improve.
  31. The key to long-term survival and prosperity has a lot to do with the money management techniques incorporated into the technical system.
  32. If you want to know everything about the market, go to the beach. Push and pull your hands with the waves. Some are bigger waves, some are smaller. But if you try to push the wave out when it’s coming in, it’ll never happen. The market is always right.
  33. To avoid whipsaw losses, stop trading.
  34. Pyramiding instructions appear on dollar bills. Add smaller and smaller amounts on the way up. Keep your eye open at the top.
  35. Markets are fundamentally volatile. No way around it. Your problem is not in the math. There is no math to get you out of having to experience uncertainty.
  36. Our work is not so much to treat or to cure feelings, as to accept and celebrate them. This is a critical difference.
  37. Before I enter a trade, I set stops at a point at which the chart sours.
  38. Trading requires skill at reading the markets and at managing your own anxieties.
  39. The positive intention of fear is risk control.
  40. Speculate with less than 10% of your liquid net worth. Risk less than 1% of your speculative account on a trade. This tends to keep the fluctuations in the trading account small, relative to net worth. This is essential as large fluctuations can engage {emotions} and lead to feeling-justifying drama.

 

Now that I have shared the best trading tips and quotes from Ed Seykota, which is your favourite trading tip?

Let me know in the comments below.

 

ed seykota

If you would like to get more trading tips and quotes from all the best traders, also check out: “Best Trading Tips & Quotes from Legendary Top Traders”

Best Trading Tips Quotes from Jesse Livermore

Jesse Lauriston Livermore was an American stock trader.

He is considered a pioneer of day trading and was the basis for the main character of Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, a best-selling book by Edwin Lefèvre.

At one time, he was one of the richest people in the world.

Some of Livermore’s trades, such as taking short positions before the 1906 San Francisco earthquake and just before the Wall Street Crash of 1929, are legendary and have led to his being regarded as the greatest trader who ever lived.

In this post, I will share all the best trading tips and quotes from Jesse Livermore, so that we can learn from his knowledge and experience.

 

Infographic Jesse Livermore Best Trading Tips and Qutoes

 

Here are some of the best trading tips and quotes by Jesse Livermore:

  1. The stock market is never obvious. It is designed to fool most of the people, most of the time.
  2. There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side.
  3. A man must believe in himself and his judgement if he expects to make a living at this game. That is why I don’t believe in tips.
  4. A man must study general conditions, to seize them so as to be able to anticipate probabilities.
  5. To anticipate the market is to gamble. To be patient and react only when the market gives the signal is to speculate.
  6. Don’t take action with a trade until the market, itself, confirms your opinion. Being a little late in a trade is insurance that your opinion is correct. In other words, don’t be an impatient trader.
  7. A prudent speculator never argues with the tape. Markets are never wrong, opinions often are.
  8. If I buy stocks on Smith’s tip I must sell those same stocks on Smith’s tip. I am depending on him. Suppose Smith is away on a holiday when the selling time comes around?
  9. If you can’t sleep at night because of your stock market position, then you have gone too far. If this is the case, then sell your position down to the sleeping level.
  10. The average man doesn’t wish to be told that it is a bull or a bear market. What he desires is to be told specifically which particular stock to buy or sell. He wants to get something for nothing. He does not wish to work. He doesn’t even wish to have to think.
  11. He really meant to tell them that the big money was not in the individual fluctuations but in the main movements that is, not in reading the tape but in sizing up the entire market and its trend.
  12. People who look for easy money invariable pay for the privilege of proving conclusively that it cannot be found on this earth.
  13. It is foolhardy to make a second trade, if your first trade shows you a loss. Never average losses. Let this thought be written indelibly upon your mind.
  14. Nobody can catch all the fluctuations. In a bull market your game is to buy and hold until you believe that the bull market is near its end. To do this you must study general conditions and not tips or special factors affecting individual stocks. Then get out of all your stocks; get out for keeps! You have to use your brains and your vision to do this; otherwise my advice would be as idiotic as to tell you to buy cheap and sell dear. One of the most helpful things that anybody can learn is to give up trying to catch the last eighth-or the first. These two are the most expensive eighths in the world.
  15. Remember this: when you are doing nothing, those speculators who feel they must trade day in and day out, are laying the foundation for your next venture. You will reap benefits from their mistakes.
  16. It is literally true that millions come easier to a trader after he knows how to trade, than hundreds did in the days of his ignorance.
  17. Professional traders have always had some system or other based upon their experience and governed either by their attitude towards speculation or by their desires.
  18. I think it was a long step forward in my trading education when I realized at last that when old Mr. Partridge kept on telling other customers, “Well, you know this is a bull market!” he really meant to tell them that the big money was not in the individual fluctuations but in the main movements that is, not in reading the tape but in sizing up the entire market and its trend.
  19. I never hesitate to tell a man that I am bullish or bearish. But I do not tell people to buy or sell any particular stock. In a bear market all stocks go down and in a bull market they go up.
  20. After spending many years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of dollars I want to tell you this: It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight!
  21. The “lucky” trader is one who minimizes mistakes and, if they do make a mistake, acts to minimize the damage by exiting from the situation quickly. In practice this means having a written plan for each trade you enter, the most important element of which is the stop-loss.
  22. “I can’t sleep” answered the nervous one. “Why not?” asked the friend. “I am carrying so much cotton that I can’t sleep thinking about. It is wearing me out. What can I do?” “Sell down to the sleeping point”, answered the friend.
  23. Speculation is far too exciting. Most people who speculate hound the brokerage offices… the ticker is always on their minds. They are so engrossed with the minor ups and downs, they miss the big movements.
  24. The semi-sucker had read books about trading – usually written by yet higher grade suckers – but he did not realize that reading books was not the same as trading experience. This type of sucker could quote all sorts of wise sayings about the operations of the stock market. He did not lose money as quickly as the beginning sucker because he had learned some of the most rudimentary trading rules.
  25. A loss never bothers me after I take it. I forget it overnight. But being wrong – not taking the loss – that is what does damage to the pocketbook and to the soul.
  26. The market does not beat them. They beat themselves, because though they have brains they cannot sit tight.
  27. I did precisely the wrong thing. The cotton showed me a loss and I kept it. The wheat showed me a profit and I sold it out. Of all the speculative blunders there are few greater than trying to average a losing game. Always sell what shows you a loss and keep what shows you a profit.
  28. Whenever I have had the patience to wait for the market to arrive at what I call a Pivotal Point before I started to trade; I have always made money in my operations.
  29. Losing money is the least of my troubles. A loss never troubles me after I take it. I forget it overnight. But being wrong – not taking the loss – that is what does the damage to the pocket book and to the soul.
  30. It is what people actually did in the stock market that counted – not what they said they were going to do.
  31. Play the market only when all factors are in your favor. No person can play the market all the time and win. There are times when you should be completely out of the market, for emotional as well as economic reasons.
  32. The desire for constant action irrespective of underlying conditions is responsible for many losses on Wall Street even among the professionals, who feel that they must take home some money every day, as though they were working for regular wages.
  33. Do not use the words “Bullish” or “Bearish.” These words fix a firm market-direction in the mind for an extended period of time. Instead, use “Upward Trend” and “Downward Trend” when asked the direction you think the market is headed. Simply say: “The line of least resistance is either upward or downward at this time.” Remember, don’t fight the tape!
  34. The game of speculation is the most uniformly fascinating game in the world. But it is not a game for the stupid, the mentally lazy, the person of inferior emotional balance, or the get-rich-quick adventurer. They will die poor.
  35. He will risk half his fortune in the stock market with less reflection that he devotes to the selection of a medium-priced automobile.
  36. The only thing to do when a person is wrong is to be right, by ceasing to be wrong. Cut your losses quickly, without hesitation. Don’t waste time. When a stock moves below a mental-stop, sell it immediately.
  37. Emotional control is the most essential factor in playing the market. Never lose control of your emotions when the market moves against you. Don’t get too confident over your wins or too despondent over your losses.
  38. In a narrow market, when prices are not getting anywhere to speak of but move within a narrow range, there is no sense in trying to anticipate what the next big movement is going to be. The thing to do is to watch the market, read the tape to determine the limits of the get nowhere prices, and make up your mind that you will not take an interest until the prices breaks through the limit in either direction.
  39. All through time, people have basically acted and reacted the same way in the market as a result of: greed, fear, ignorance, and hope. That is why the numerical formations and patterns recur on a constant basis.
  40. Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon. I found it one of the hardest things to learn. But it is only after a stock operator has firmly grasped this that he can make big money.
  41. Experience has proved to me that real money made in speculating has been in commitments in a stock or commodity showing a profit right from the start.
  42. There is a time to go long. There is a time to go short. There is a time to go fishing.
  43. I can only rise by knowledge, If I fall it must be by my own blunders.
  44. Watch the market leaders, the stocks that have led the charge upward in a bull market. That is where the action is and where the money is to be made. As the leaders go, so goes the entire market. If you cannot make money in the leaders, you are not going to make money in the stock market. Watching the leaders keeps your universe of stocks limited, focused, and more easily controlled.
  45. One of the most helpful things that anybody can learn is to give up trying to catch the last eighth – or the first. These two are the most expensive eighths in the world. They have cost stock traders, in the aggregate, enough millions of dollars to build a concrete highway across the continent.
  46. I don’t know whether I make myself plain, but I never lose my temper over the stock market. I never argue with the tape. Getting sore at the market doesn’t get you anywhere.
  47. Failure to take advantage of a serendipitous act of good luck in the stock market is often a mistake.
  48. There is nothing new on Wall Street or in stock speculation. What has happened in the past will happen again, and again, and again. This is because human nature does not change, and it is human emotion, solidly build into human nature, that always gets in the way of human intelligence. Of this I am sure.
  49. Instead of hoping he must fear and instead of fearing he must hope. He must fear that his loss may develop into a much bigger loss, and hope that his profit may become a big profit.

 

Now that I have shared the best trading tips and quotes from Jesse Livermore, which is your favourite trading tip?

Let me know in the comments below.

 

thumbnail the full list of best trading tips and quotes from legendary top traders

If you would like to get more trading tips and quotes from all the best traders, also check out: “Best Trading Tips & Quotes from Legendary Top Traders”

Bialowieza Primeval Forest Hajnowka Poland

The last 1-2 weeks, we have seen sizable rallies (20-40%) in various market like stocks, crypto, etc. Does this mean the bear market is over?

It is actually quite common to see such large rallies during a bear market, but personally I won’t be going too aggressive since it could just be in the middle of a bear market.

The better approach would be to stay nimble, taking swing trading positions to ride these bear market rallies, but always be ready to get out the moment the bear market resumes.

The last few weeks have been very good for crypto trading, and I counted 9 successful profitable swing trades in a row so far, so stay tuned to continue watching how far this winning streak can go!

I will be posting daily portfolio updates and trading opportunities in my “Daily Trading Signals” Telegram group, so join us if you want to start profiting with us!

 

Bialowieza Primeval Forest Hajnowka Poland

[Photo: Bialowieza Primeval Forest, Hajnówka, Poland – See my full travel photo log!]

For our weekly market wrap, we go through some of the trade calls and analysis from last week, which gives us valuable insights for the week ahead.

We cover 3 main markets with a total of 200+ counters, so we will never run out of trading opportunities:

By covering a broad range of markets, we can focus our attention (and capital) on whichever market currently gives the best returns.

Click here to receive all these signals in real-time for only $67 a month! You will get several signals a day, and even taking just 1 trade the whole month can easily cover the fee, so what are you waiting for? Trading Signals Commodity 050322 emoji

Portfolio Highlights

Trading Signals Portfolio 200722

Portfolio updates (20 Jul 2022)

Currently have about 6% in stocks and 6% crypto to ride the current bullish momentum.

 

Trading Signals Portfolio 210722

More detailed portfolio notes, will be sharing this more often in future for quick and easy reference.

ST = short-term
MT = medium-term
LT = long-term

 

Trading Signals Portfolio 220722

Portfolio Updates (22 Jul 2022)

Taking profits off long positions in stocks and crypto, especially the latter which has a strong run-up the past few days.

 

Forex & Commodities Market Highlights

Trading Signals currency strength 190722

Currency strength is shifting away from the USD for now.

 

Trading Signals AUDUSD 190722 1

The AUDUSD is currently resting on strong support, might have a rebound within the range.

 

Trading Signals NZDUSD 190722

The NZDUSD might also be having a rebound, but in the form of a falling wedge.

 

Trading Signals GBPUSD 190722

Similar to the NZDUSD, the GBPUSD is also forming a similar wedge shape.

 

Trading Signals USDSGD 220722

The USDSGD looks like it is correcting back to the bottom of the uptrend channel.

 

Stock & Bond Market Highlights

Trading Signals Inflation High 180722

So in 1981 consumers were looking at 10% savings account yields, 17% mortgages, 10% bond yields and 9% inflation.

Today it’s 1% savings account yields, 5% mortgages, 3% bond yields and 9% inflation.

The last time inflation was this high it basically took two recessions in short order to slow the rapid rate of change in prices.

https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2022/07/the-last-time-inflation-was-this-high/

 

Trading Signals ARKK 210722

Solid breakout for ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK), we might see the bullish momentum continue for a while.

I have been accumulating longs on this for quite a while, might add on a little more. ????

 

Trading Signals US100 200722

2 possible ways it could play out for the NASDAQ 100 (US100), but currently it looks more likely to head up to test the top of the trend channel.

There will be another major rate hike in about a week’s time, so be wary of volatile price moves as we get nearer.

 

Trading Signals bull market news 220722

https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-new-bull-market-cant-start-until-investors-give-up-11658482203

 

Trading Signals Stock Market 210722

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-stock-market-is-on-sale-that-doesnt-make-it-cheap-11658388069

 

Crypto Market Highlights

Trading Signals ETHUSD 190722

Can consider taking a small position on Ethereum (ETHUSD) to ride the rebound, with a tight SL around $1250.

 

Trading Signals ETHUSD 200722

Ethereum (ETHUSD) is now above $1500, congrats to all those who took this trade! ????

 

Trading Signals ETHUSD profits 220722

Taking profits from my recent Ethereum (ETHUSD) long positions. ????

 

Trading Signals ETHUSD 220722

Tricky situation for Ethereum (ETHUSD) because after the breakout to new highs there wasn’t very strong follow-through, so I decided to take my profits and wait on the sideline till I get a better setup.

 

 

Click here to receive all these signals in real-time for only $67 a month! You will get several signals a day, and even taking just 1 trade the whole month can easily cover the fee, so what are you waiting for? Trading Signals Commodity 050322 emoji

Good luck, and may next week bring more excellent profits!

Thumbnail Expanding Triangle Price Pattern Strategy Guide

Have you faced a market where there are large price swings and high volatility? How do you profit from such markets?

The expanding triangle pattern is one such example, where buyers and sellers fight for control, until one side capitulates and the other side takes control of the market.

While this fight is going on, there are several ways to take advantage and profit from these large price movements, either by trading the swing themselves, or waiting till a clear direction is established before taking a position.

In this post, I will show you how to take advantage of the expanding triangle pattern to trade ranges, breakouts, and reversals, by using the best trading strategies for this price pattern.

 

expanding triangle INFOGRAPHIC confirmed

What is an Expanding Triangle?

The expanding triangle, as its name suggests, is a triangle, but it differs from the other 3 types of triangle patterns which we covered in the previous chapter.

All triangle patterns consist of 2 lines, but in the previous 3 triangles (symmetrical, ascending, descending), the lines were converging, whereas for the expanding triangle, the lines are diverging.

This means that instead of compressing prices into a fixed breakout point some time within the pattern, this pattern sees prices moving further and further away from each line in the pattern.

This ultimately leads to wider swings (higher highs and lower lows) and increased volatility, making it harder to predict when a breakout will happen. Also, since it neither exhibits higher highs and higher lows (uptrend) nor lower highs and lower lows (downtrend), this makes it hard to pinpoint the current trend.

Historically, it also has many names associated with the same pattern:

  • Expanding triangle
  • Broadening triangle
  • Megaphone formation
  • Broadening formation

The expanding triangle can be either bullish or bearish, giving rise to the bullish expanding triangle or the bearish expanding triangle.

For stock markets, the bearish version seems to be more common, since market bottoms tend to be faster (due to the faster decrease of prices during the crash), so we tend to see it more during market tops.

 

Expanding Triangle Psychology

When you see the expanding triangle and its widening swings, it is a clear sign of uncertainty in the market.

Bulls and bears are fighting to gain control, but it is not clear which side is winning because each time price makes a new high or low, it appears that either side is winning, only to see the other side gain back control.

expanding triangle psychology

This makes it hard for market players to fully commit until there is more clarity.

The reason why this is classified as a reversal pattern is because the larger and larger swings point to increasing uncertainty, and the higher the uncertainty, the more chance that the prior trend will reverse.

 

Expanding Triangle Trading Strategies

There are 3 main strategies, of which the first exploits the wide swings to attempt range trading, while the other two attempt to trade the breakout of prices.

  1. Range trading (using the swings)
  2. Breakout (with trend)
  3. Reversal (change of trend)

Since this pattern is inherently uncertain (and hence risky), good risk management and precision of entry is important to get a good entry price, because the chance of getting stopped out is high if your entry is less than ideal.

Now, let’s go through each strategy in greater detail.

 

Expanding Triangle Trading Strategy #1

Our first strategy for the expanding triangle pattern is make use of the wide swings between the range of the triangle pattern, and aim to take positions near the extremes of the swings.

This is very similar to range trading, or a rectangle pattern, where we go long near support levels and go short near resistance levels, except that this time the support and resistance levels are diverging lines instead of horizontal lines.

In the example above, we see that prices bounce off the lines on both sides, and I have highlighted the potential buying and selling opportunities with green and red arrows respectively.

For trading, we would look to enter near the lines of the expanding triangle, while using a wider stoploss, since this pattern is know for its high volatility. 

As the lines diverge and the swings get wider, the reward to risk for each trade actually becomes better, because the risk remains the same (based on your entry technique), but the reward increases as the target moves further away.

Do note, however, that eventually the pattern will lead to a breakout, so remember to manage your trading position as prices move within the expanding triangle.

 

Expanding Triangle Trading Strategy #2

In the first strategy, we treated the expanding triangle as a trading range, and traded the price movements within the range.

The second strategy we are going for is to treat the expanding triangle as a continuation pattern, and look for a breakout in the same direction as the prior trend.

Personally, I do not like this strategy, as I feel that the odds are not as good, and it is hard to find many instances of a successful breakout. The probability of a reversal is higher due to uncertainty of the pattern.

As such, I was unable to find a good chart example, and I have simulated a price breakout instead.

In the example above, we see a prior uptrend, followed by the expanding triangle, then we see prices break out (simulated prices in blue dotted lines).

The breakout is inherently challenging because prices are trying to break above a line which is sloping upwards, which means prices need to move up a lot in a short period of time. If the breakout is too gradual, it will appear to just be moving along the edge of the line, making it hard to tell whether a real breakout has taken place.

The best breakdown will be one in which prices shoot past the line, then pulls back to form a stable base.

For trading, we would look to enter near the stable base once it has been established, to act as a launchpad for the next leg of movement upwards.

Note that this strategy works just as well in a downtrend, you’ll just have to flip the pattern around for a downside breakout.

This strategy works best if the prior trend (before forming the triangle pattern) is strong, and has a higher chance of success if the triangle is smaller, in terms of height and duration.

 

Expanding Triangle Trading Strategy #3

In our final strategy, instead of looking for a breakout in the prior trend direction (strategy #2), we now look for a breakout in the opposite direction, in other words a trend reversal.

To be more specific, we are not looking for a breakout per se, but rather an opportunity to initiate a position in the opposite direction of the prevailing trend.

This means that instead of a breakout, we can look for a low-risk entry point for our first entry. Recall the technique we used in strategy #1 for trading the range, and entering near the extreme swing.

In the example above, which features the same chart as strategy #2, instead of looking for an upside breakout, we will be looking for a reversal trade opportunity.

For trading, we can initiate a low-risk short position near the upper bound of the range, indicated by the yellow highlight and red arrow. As prices start to form lower highs and lower lows (thus confirming the downtrend), we can choose to add short positions.

Note that this strategy works just as well in a bullish trend reversal, you’ll just have to flip the pattern around for an upside reversal.

This strategy works best if the prior trend (before forming the triangle pattern) is weak and in a relatively late stage, and has a higher chance of success if the triangle is larger, in terms of height and duration.

 

Profit Target for Expanding Triangle

Once an expanding triangle pattern is completed, one of the most useful things about it is its ability to provide a price projection, which can be used to estimate a minimum profit target for your trade.

This can be done by taking the maximum height of the triangle, and projecting that distance from the breakout point.

expanding triangle profit target

In the chart above, the maximum height of the expanding triangle is indicated by the blue rectangular box, which is then used as a price projection at the breakout point.

The black horizontal arrow indicates the price level which serves as the minimum profit target for the expanding triangle pattern breakout.

This price projection technique can be used in conjunction with other methods, such as support and resistance levels, and if there is any confluence, gives an added layer of confirmation.

 

Tips from the Trading Desk

  1. With much uncertainty surround this pattern, it is better to look for low risk entries to enter early into the trend reversal, rather than look for breakouts to continue the existing trend
  2. Look to fade both sides (trade within the range) if there are extreme moves
  3. Avoid trading when price is in the middle of the range

avoid middle expanding triangle

When prices are in the middle of the expanding triangle, there is no edge because the odds of going up or down are about 50-50.

And as you can see in the yellow circles, when prices are in the middle, they can “look” like they are breaking out in one direction, and make a 180 U-turn just a few bars later.

This means that if you try to trade these breakouts in the middle of the range, you will get whipsawed terribly.

Hence, it is better to avoid taking a position when prices are in the middle of the pattern, and instead wait till there is a good setup.

 

Now that I have shared the various trading strategies for the expanding triangle price pattern, which is your favourite strategy?

Let me know in the comments below.

 

thumbnail the definitive guide to trading price chart patterns

If you would like to learn all the different price chart patterns, also check out: “The Definitive Guide to Trading Price Chart Patterns”