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All of a sudden, I’m seeing the word Bitcoin everywhere I go.

It is all over the news.

Bloggers are talking about it.

Everyone is calling a buy for it, even those who have no idea what cryptocurrency is.

So the big question is, is Bitcoin still a good buy at its current price?

 

Here is some background on Bitcoin:

Before answering that, it’s amusing how everyone is getting excited about Bitcoin now, when just a few months ago most people were saying it it’s a scam, or that it is going to crash to zero, that it is worthless, etc.

Seems like it is human nature to jump on the hype train.

If you have been following me on my Telegram channel (https://t.me/synapsetrading), you will know that we have been accumulating it since early last year, when it was around $4000+.

Here are some of the updates I posted last year:

 

Now, let’s look at the current prices.

On the weekly chart, we haven’t seen any correction in months, which shows that the trend and momentum is strong in the long-term, but it also shows that the trend is not moving at a stable sustainable pace.

A stable trend is marked by ups and downs, not just a parabolic one-way move.

If you think in terms of numbers, the potential percentage upside gain is much less compared to the start of the trend, which is why I prefer to get in early on a new trend rather than chase a late-stage trend.

If I am going to add more positions or enter, I will wait for a larger correction first, such as a pullback to the EMAs on the weekly chart.

Trade safe, and stay tuned! 💰😎🔥

Yesterday, we saw an incredible spike in Bitcoin of close to $2500, which is 40+% move.

Even though price has corrected slightly, it is currently still up by about 30% from its recent lows.

Although no one really knows the reason for such a sudden move, many people have attributed it to remarks by the Chinese President, Xi Jinping, who said the country needs to “seize the opportunity” afforded by blockchain technology.

Speaking as part of the 18th collective study of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee on Thursday in Beijing,  he said that blockchain technology has a wide array of applications within China, listing topics ranging from financing businesses to mass transit and poverty alleviation.

Although he was talking about Blockchain technology rather than cryptocurrencies, traders seem to have felt that it would still have a positive effect, at least based on what the market is reflecting.

For a technical perspective, the chart is starting to look more bullish medium/long-term, with the breakout of the falling wedge pattern.

After months of consolidation, Bitcoin has broken down from its triangle consolidation price pattern.

The interesting thing is that if you look carefully you will see both a symmetrical triangle (neutral) and a descending triangle (bearish), so overall the odds of it breaking down was higher than the odds of it breaking up.

The next support level is around the $6800-$7000 level, so we might see a small pullback, followed by more bearish movement downwards.

“In economics, Kondratiev waves (also called supercyclesgreat surgeslong wavesK-waves or the long economic cycle) are hypothesized cycle-like phenomena in the modern world economy. It is stated that the period of a wave ranges from forty to sixty years, the cycles consist of alternating intervals between high sectoral growth and intervals of relatively slow growth.” – Wikipedia

 

After the global financial crisis in 2008, the market bottomed in 2009, and since then we saw the start of a new major cycle, which could last till 2050/60. This means that we are still in the early stages (fast growth stage) of a big long-term trend. This trend consists of not just cryptocurrencies, but also things like blockchain, AI, VR/AR, machine learning, etc.

 

Will it Crash Like the Dot Com Bubble?

In every phase of innovation, it will start off with radical innovation, where a new technology is introduced. This will be a period of experimentation and flux, as many new products come into the market. Cryptocurrencies are currently in this stage, which is why prices are so volatile.

As you might be aware, there are 3 main types of coins: currency, platform, and applications. Some people also include a 4th type called privacy coins, like Monero and Zcash, which are meant to allow completely anonymous transactions. Some examples of currency coins include Bitcoin, Litecoin & Bitcoin Cash, and their main purpose is to serve as a virtual currency. However, Bitcoin behaves more like an asset rather than a currency now, since people are buying it for capital appreciation rather than to use it for transactions. Platform coins refer to ones like Ethereum, which do not directly provide a function to the consumer, but allow applications to be built on their platform. Lastly, applications are like the iphone apps, which serves a particular function for the end user.

After the market has gone on long enough to enter the bubble stage, the next phase of innovation is the “shake out” phase, where the market gets rid of “useless” or bloated/weak products. This will typically be the part associated with a market crash, but it is also possible that the bubble deflates slowly instead of bursting.

In an early stage boom, the application coins will tend to proliferate, and there will be a lot of them. This means that this class of coins would be the most risky to invest in, because a lot of them will be the first to die out when the market crashes.

 

 

After the dust settles, the ones who survive will likely become the dominant players (Facebook, apple, Amazon), and it is worth noting that the best products/technology may not necessarily be the ones that survive, rather it is the one with the widest adoption. Do keep this in mind when building your Crypto portfolio and deciding which coins to invest and hold for the long-term.

After the crash, the trend may take a while to resume, but it will be more majestic than before. The next phase involves incremental innovations, where products are further refined, such as improvements in the products, or new applications for existing products, etc.

So Should I Buy Now?

Although we know we are at the early stages of a mega-trend, we also have to keep in mind the “shake out” phase which has not occurred yet.

If you are willing to hold through that and capture the subsequent big upside, then you will not need to worry so much about timing the market now. But if you prefer to take a more cautious approach, you can wait till the “shake out” is over before entering the market.

And lastly, if you prefer the best of both worlds, you can use swing trading to capture the short/medium-term moves in the market, while waiting for the “shake out”, and then going all-in when the dust settles. Whichever approach you choose, just make sure you don’t miss out on this 50-year wave, because it is literally once in a lifetime. 😀

Last weekend, we conducted out first run of the “Crypto Mastery Program”, and it was a full-house turnout for our first batch of crypto enthusiasts!

Based on the feedback we got, this is the first and only fully comprehensive course on Cryptocurrencies in Singapore, which covers:

  • Fundamentals of Blockchain technology, cryptocurrencies, bitcoins, Alt coins, etc
  • Value investing strategies to find undervalued coins for long-term investment
  • Technical analysis & short-term trading strategies to capture smaller price movements, and to time the entry for long-term investments
  • ICOs (initial coin offerings) and how to profit from them while avoiding the scams
  • How to mine for coins with zero technical knowledge (includes free tour to mining farm)
  • How to create a diversified portfolio of crypto assets to ride this next big wave of wealth creation

This course is taught by 2 trainers:

  • Spencer Li – Self-made millionaire professional trader with 10+ years of experience, and specialises in technicals & price action
  • Ong Jun Hao – Crypto trader who made 100x returns in less than a year, and specialises in fundamentals & news analysis

Registration is open for 2018: https://wp.me/P1riws-78a

Training Feedback from Attendees:

“Attended CMP on 2-3 Dec 2017. Great course with very resourceful contents, covered wide range of topic from Background, ICOs, Mining, Investing, Trading and Portfolio Allocations. Comprehensive explanation from both Spencer and Jun Hao on fundamental valuation and technical trading perspective. The course contents are suitable both beginners and advanced traders who are looking to step into Cryptocurrency.” – ZT

“Great programme! Really learned alot about cryptocurrencies. As a beginner, it really felt like I took a knowledge express train. Jun Hao & Spencer are also very willing to share their knowledge!” – Aw Jian Yang

“A useful start to those who want to learn more about cryptocurrency investment instead of jumping in blindly.” – Susan Tan

“SL & JH are well verse in their domain. For newbie/noob, it is 2 days well spent to get started in Crypto World.” – Gary Koh

“Great course! Provides a good foundation to understanding & trading cryptocurrencies!” – Ed

“Very informative, easy pace for beginners.” – Al

Opened my eyes to a whole new dimension on cryptocurrencies. Jun Hao is very knowlegeable on cryptocurrency.” – Eugene

“Jun Hao and Spencer are very good teachers, very clear in their explanation, very knowledgeable and professional. They selflessly share their knowledge with students. The course is very good and must attend for anyone interested in cryptocurrency investing and trading.” – Adrian

“Great program for those who are interested to know crypto and want to profit from it. The program content is very useful for both beginner and advanced traders. Definitely must attend couse.” – Kwaw Zaw Than

“A good framework for people who intends to dive into the crypto world, be it investing or trading. The course covers fundamental, technical, behavioral and news analysis, which makes it comprehensive. Thank you Spencer and Jun Hao for the wonderful sharing.” – Darrell Su

“This course is very informative. The instructors are very knowledgeable and open to share their trading experience and tips.” – CW Tay

Highly recommended to those who wants to know what is crypto/invetsment/mining.” – YC

I would recommend this program to friends who are keen in trading/investing into cryptocurrencies.” – Goh Lily

“Attended the first cryptocurrency course and it was extremely informative for a complete newcomer such as myself. The theory behind it was in-depth, coupled with practical examples which helped consolidate what we learnt. Turns out cryptocurrency isn’t as complex as is looks and sounds. Both spencer and jun hao were forthcoming, constantly highlighting the pitfalls of dabbling in cryptocurrencies. Great introductory lesson for those just starting out. What i liked was also how the tools could be employed across all financial instruments will also benefit me as an equity investor.” – Wei Keong

 

 

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Register Early to Avoid Disappointment!

All of slots are closed for 2017, but we have opened new slots for 2018, so those who are keen can start registering now to avoid disappointment, as our last course was sold out within a week after we opened the registration.
Registration link: https://wp.me/P1riws-78a

Good luck to all future “Crypto Millionaires”, and see you all at the top! 😀