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Tag Archive for: crypto trading

Spencer Li

Weekly Market Wrap: Review of 2022 & Outlook for 2023

Market Analysis
Kolsay Lakes National Park Kazakhstan

Looking back, 2022 has been challenging for the stock market and many analysts do not have high expectations for 2023.

There is a growing consensus among analysts that there will be a selloff in the first half of next year due to negative estimates for future performance.

However, some believe that the next year could present a good opportunity to buy before the Federal Reserve (Fed) potentially needs to lower interest rates in 2024 in order to support the economy during a recession.

To protect from downside risk, the more prudent approach is to hedge by investing in inflation-related themes, or by using fixed income products such as T-bonds or T-bills.

When the yields start turning down, it would be an early indicator to rotate back into the stock market, in time for the next major bull market.

To kickstart your 2023 trading & investing journey, join our “Daily Trading Signals” Telegram channel!

 

Kolsay Lakes National Park Kazakhstan

[Photo: Kolsay Lakes National Park, Kazakhstan – See my full travel photo log!]

For our weekly market wrap, we go through some of the trade calls and analysis from last week, which gives us valuable insights for the week ahead.

We cover 3 main markets with a total of 200+ counters, so we will never run out of trading opportunities:

  • Forex, CFDs, commodities, bonds
  • US stocks, ETFs, global stock indices
  • Cryptocurrencies, crypto indices

By covering a broad range of markets, we can focus our attention (and capital) on whichever market currently gives the best returns.

Click here to receive all these signals in real-time for only $67 a month! You will get several signals a day, and even taking just 1 trade the whole month can easily cover the fee, so what are you waiting for?

 

Special Report: Review of 2022 & Outlook for 2023

The global stock market has seen a significant decrease due to high levels of inflation and aggressive actions taken by central banks, particularly the U.S. Federal Reserve, to increase interest rates.

While the energy sector has performed well, some companies that benefited from the pandemic, like DocuSign, Roku, and Peloton, have struggled. The NASDAQ Composite index, which is heavily focused on technology, has dropped by about 33% this year.

The Fed has raised interest rates by 4.25% this year and Chair Jerome Powell has indicated that more work needs to be done to reduce inflation.

Goldman Sachs analysts predict that the Fed will further increase the benchmark interest rate to between 5.0-5.2%. Goldman strategists have also stated that they do not expect the Fed to lower the interest rate until the economy is at risk of entering a recession, which they do not expect to occur next year.

Even well-known companies like Meta Platforms, Tesla, and Amazon have seen significant declines in their stock prices this year, with declines of 65%, 65%, and 50% respectively.

While the decrease in the S&P 500 index this year has primarily been due to inflation and actions taken by central banks, analysts believe that negative estimates for future performance will contribute to further declines.

Currently, the consensus among analysts is that the S&P 500 will earn around $216 in 2023, but some more optimistic analysts predict earnings of around $220, representing only slight growth compared to 2022.

On the other hand, a group of bearish analysts believe that earnings per share (EPS) will decrease by about 10% to $200. Morgan Stanley and Bank of America have been particularly bearish, stating that the bear market in stocks will not end until the S&P 500 reaches a range of 3000-3400 later this year.

The current average price target for the S&P 500 for 2023, based on forecasts from 23 analysts, is 4,080.

 

Weekly Market Outlook Video

Trading Signals Weekly market outlook 251222

Weekly Market Outlook (25 December 2022)

Market is likely to be quiet this week due to Christmas and New Year holidays.

Watch out for any Santa Rally (last 5 days of the year and first 2 days of the new year), which might give a good shorting opportunity in the stock market.

 

Portfolio Highlights

Trading Signals Weekly portfolio updates 251222

Weekly Portfolio Updates (25 December 2022)

Added more short positions for stocks and REITs, and will continue adding more on any pullbacks.

 

Forex & Commodities Market Highlights

Trading Signals EURAUD 281222

EURAUD – Watch to see if some consolidation zone forms here, followed by bullish price action.

 

Trading Signals USDCNY 301222

USDCNY – With China opening up, the Yuan is strengthening, and this pair looks like it will be heading lower after breaking out from the bear flag/pennant pattern.

 

Trading Signals USDSGD 301222

USDSGD – Looks like this is going to continue heading down to test the major support level, which is the bottom of the wide range.

 

Trading Signals CADJPY 301222 1

CADJPY – And the downtrend continues, congrats to those who are also holding short positions! 💰🔥💪🏻

 

Stock & Bond Market Highlights

Trading Signals US100 301222

US100 (NASDAQ 100) – After dropping about 12% from the recent swing highs, it is now testing major support.

Currently, there is a good chance it will test previous lows and even break new lows.

If it manages to make a U-turn and break above the previous swing high of aounrd 12400, then there is a good chance of a market reversal.

 

Trading Signals inflation news 271222

https://www.wsj.com/articles/wall-street-and-fed-flopped-in-trying-to-predict-2022-11672050603

 

 

Click here to receive all these signals in real-time for only $67 a month! You will get several signals a day, and even taking just 1 trade the whole month can easily cover the fee, so what are you waiting for?

Good luck, and may next week bring more excellent profits!

0 Comments/by Spencer Li
https://synapsetrading.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/Kolsay-Lakes-National-Park-Kazakhstan.jpg 1536 2048 Spencer Li https://synapsetrading.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/logo.jpg Spencer Li2022-12-30 02:12:452023-01-01 03:40:49Weekly Market Wrap: Review of 2022 & Outlook for 2023
Spencer Li

Weekly Market Wrap: Adding on to Profitable Shorts!

Market Analysis
Hagia Sophia Turkey

Now that the bears are back in action, the market has switched from “potential reversal” mode back to “risk off” mode, and the stock market has resumed its decline.

In last week’s market outlook video, we mentioned that the best trading opportunities will be shorting the stock/REITs market.

Over the past 2 weeks, we have seen some stock indices drop by more than 10%.

Will we see new lows before the year is over?

We will be adding more shorts on any pullbacks, but doing it in a way to maximise returns and minimise risk.

Want to join us in our big short of the year?

Check out out “Daily Trading Signals” private Telegram group for real-time entry signals!

 

Hagia Sophia Turkey

[Photo: Hagia Sophia, Turkey – See my full travel photo log!]

For our weekly market wrap, we go through some of the trade calls and analysis from last week, which gives us valuable insights for the week ahead.

We cover 3 main markets with a total of 200+ counters, so we will never run out of trading opportunities:

  • Forex, CFDs, commodities, bonds
  • US stocks, ETFs, global stock indices
  • Cryptocurrencies, crypto indices

By covering a broad range of markets, we can focus our attention (and capital) on whichever market currently gives the best returns.

Click here to receive all these signals in real-time for only $67 a month! You will get several signals a day, and even taking just 1 trade the whole month can easily cover the fee, so what are you waiting for?

 

Weekly Market Outlook Video

Trading Signals Weekly market outlook 181222

Weekly Market Outlook (18 December 2022)

After the false breakout for stocks on the bullish CPI data, prices made a U-turn back down.

During the FOMC, the Fed hinted that a pivot is not so soon, which added to the bearishness.

There is a good chance of seeing new lows in the stock market.

 

Portfolio Highlights

Trading Signals portfolio 181222

Weekly Portfolio Updates (18 December 2022)

Added more short positions for stocks, and will continue adding more next week on any pullbacks.

 

Forex & Commodities Market Highlights

Trading Signals AUDCHF 201222

AUDCHF – Price is moving in our favour, can continue to hold for more downside! 💰🔥💪🏻

 

Trading Signals AUDJPY 201222

AUDJPY – Wow we did not expect it to hit our target in one day with 300+ pips profit! Congrats! 💰🔥💪🏻

 

Trading Signals CADJPY 201222

CADJPY – Strong downside breakout!

Headlines: “Nikkei 225 falls more than 2% after Bank of Japan widens yield target range, yen strengthens”

 

Trading Signals NZDCHF 181222

Can consider going long on NZDCHF during a tight stop below the 2-bar reversal.

 

Trading Signals WTIUSD 181222

Crude Oil (WTIUSD) on a long-term downtrend, and now has a pullback shorting opportunity.

 

Stock & Bond Market Highlights

Trading Signals REET 171222

The long-awaited breakdown for Global REITs (REET) finally came as well, after running into the top of the trend channel.

It also formed a rising wedge just before the breakdown, which added to the bear conviction.

Congrats to those who joined in the shorts! 💰🔥💪🏻

I will be continuing to add more shorts, hopefully prices break new lows by the end of the year.

 

Trading Signals Inflation 211222

Biggest inflation movers of 2022.

 

Click here to receive all these signals in real-time for only $67 a month! You will get several signals a day, and even taking just 1 trade the whole month can easily cover the fee, so what are you waiting for?

Good luck, and may next week bring more excellent profits!

0 Comments/by Spencer Li
https://synapsetrading.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/Hagia-Sophia-Turkey.jpg 1536 2048 Spencer Li https://synapsetrading.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/logo.jpg Spencer Li2022-12-23 02:21:412022-12-24 11:59:21Weekly Market Wrap: Adding on to Profitable Shorts!
Spencer Li

The Rise and Fall of FTX & FTT Token (Will Investors Get Their Money Back?)

Blockchain & Crypto
Thumbnail Rise and Fall of FTX

What Happened to FTX and Sam Bankman-Fried? The Collapse, the FTT Token, and the Lesson

Last updated: 2026-06-14 · By Spencer Li, CFTe


FTX was a major cryptocurrency exchange founded by Sam Bankman-Fried that collapsed in November 2022, going from a $32 billion valuation to bankruptcy in a matter of days. The trigger was its own token, FTT (the native token FTX issued and used on its platform). When rival exchange Binance announced it would sell its entire FTT position, worth around $529 million, the token’s price collapsed, customers rushed to withdraw, and the exchange could not cover them. FTX filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. Bankman-Fried was arrested in December 2022 on fraud charges, and the company was accused of undisclosed leverage, price manipulation, and self-dealing between FTX and its affiliated trading firm, Alameda Research. Investors and customers lost billions, and the replacement CEO, John Ray, said not all of it would be recovered.

The short version: a business propped up by a token it printed itself is only as solid as confidence in that token. When confidence broke, everything tied to it broke at once. Here is the full story, and the one lesson that actually protects you.

What is FTX?

FTX was a cryptocurrency exchange. A cryptocurrency exchange is a platform that lets people buy, sell, or trade cryptocurrencies for other assets, such as traditional fiat money (government-issued currency like USD) or other digital coins. Exchanges are the main place people get in and out of crypto.

They are not all the same. Some only let you trade specific pairs of coins; others offer a wide range. Some are built for professional traders, others for beginners. FTX positioned itself toward the serious end of that spectrum, and for a while it was treated as one of the more credible names in the industry.

What is the FTT token?

FTT was the native token of FTX, a cryptocurrency that FTX itself issued. It was used on the platform for various purposes, like paying fees and unlocking special features for traders.

Here is the part that matters. The value of FTT was closely tied to FTX’s own performance and reputation. So when FTX wobbled, FTT did not act like an independent asset that might hold its ground. It fell with the company. That circularity, a company leaning on a token whose price depends on the company, is the structural crack the whole story runs through.

How did FTX grow so quickly?

FTX scaled fast on aggressive marketing. It ran a Super Bowl ad campaign and bought the naming rights to the home arena of the Miami Heat basketball team. It got involved in political lobbying, made donations to various causes, and worked to position itself as a supporter of the broader crypto industry.

Timing helped too. The crypto market had been volatile and had seen significant growth in the years before, and that rising tide lifted FTX along with it. Big spend plus a hot market made the company look unstoppable. It was not.

The fall of FTX: how it unfolded

In November 2022, FTX filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection after its valuation plummeted from $32 billion to nearly nothing in just a few days. That also wiped out most of Bankman-Fried’s net worth, previously estimated at around $16 billion. By his own account in November 2022, he had roughly $100,000 left in his bank account.

The collapse came after questions surfaced about how the company actually operated. FTX was accused of questionable practices: undisclosed leverage (borrowing the platform was not transparent about), manipulation of certain crypto prices, and allegations of insider trading and self-dealing between FTX and its affiliated trading firm, Alameda Research. As those concerns spread, confidence drained, and a business built on confidence cannot survive that.

Here is the sequence, stripped to the bones:

StageWhat happenedWhy it mattered
The setupFTX issued FTT and let its value ride on the company’s own reputationThe exchange and its token were not independent; they were one bet
The sparkBinance announced it would sell its entire FTT position, around $529 millionA large, public sell signal from a rival cracked confidence in the token
The runFTT’s price plummeted; customers rushed to withdraw fundsThe exchange could not cover withdrawals tied to a now-falling token
The collapseFTX filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy; valuation fell from $32B to near zero in daysBillions in customer and investor money were frozen
The falloutBankman-Fried arrested (Dec 2022) on fraud charges; reputation destroyedOne of the largest financial frauds described in US history, per prosecutors

Binance’s CEO, Changpeng Zhao, framed the decision to liquidate the FTT holdings as protecting the interests of its users and the wider crypto community. Whatever the motive, the public announcement was the spark. Once a large, credible holder signals it is dumping a token, everyone else does the math on what that means for the issuer.

Why did FTX collapse? The shady practices

The legal trouble was not the only problem. As the situation developed, it became clear FTX had engaged in practices that should have been disclosed and were not.

  • Undisclosed leverage. Borrowing and risk-taking the platform did not make transparent to users.
  • Price manipulation. Allegations that FTX influenced the prices of certain cryptocurrencies.
  • Insider trading and self-dealing. Concerns about how money moved between FTX and Alameda Research, the affiliated trading firm.

A class-action lawsuit filed in Florida in November 2022 accused Bankman-Fried of building a fraudulent crypto scheme aimed at unsophisticated investors across the US. It named celebrities including Steph Curry, Shaquille O’Neal, Shohei Ohtani, Naomi Osaka, Larry David, and Kevin O’Leary as alleged accomplices for their roles promoting the platform. Bankman-Fried retained white-collar crime lawyer Mark S. Cohen, while Caroline Ellison, who led Alameda Research, retained the firm Wilmer Cutler Pickering Hale and Dorr.

Will FTX investors get their money back?

This is the question every affected customer asked, and the honest answer at the time was: probably not all of it, with a decent chance of getting at least something.

In December 2022, FTX and its affiliated debtors filed a motion with the bankruptcy court seeking approval to sell four businesses, including Embed, LedgerX, FTX Japan, and FTX Europe. The point of those sales was to raise funds to pay down FTX’s debts and return something to creditors. Bankruptcy recovery works like that: assets get sold, claims get ranked, and creditors are paid back in pieces over time, not refunded in full overnight.

Bankman-Fried had been seen as a leading figure in crypto. The allegations and the collapse destroyed that standing, his own and the company’s.

What is the lesson? Do your due diligence

So what do you actually take from all of this?

It is a cautionary tale about the risks of crypto, and a plain reminder to do your due diligence before putting money into any investment. Two specific red flags this saga hands you for free:

  1. A company leaning on a token it printed itself is a circular bet. If the asset backing the business is the same business’s coin, there is no independent floor under it.
  2. Where your money sits is its own risk, separate from what you are trading. Counterparty risk (the risk the platform holding your money fails) is real, and it does not show up on a price chart.

Personally, this is where I keep coming back to a point that has nothing to do with picking the right coin. A scanner can flag a price pattern. A research feed can pull a company’s headlines. Neither one will tell you to stand aside because the whole structure smells circular, or to keep your size small when the story sounds too good. That judgment, the decision to walk away from a thing everyone else is piling into, is the first of the Five Edges, and it is the part no tool trades for you. FTX did not fail because traders could not read a chart. It failed because trust was placed where it should not have been.

This is the kind of thing the Ultimate Guide to Blockchain and Cryptocurrencies is built to walk you through: how the plumbing actually works, so you can spot the cracks before they spread.

FAQ

What happened to FTX?
FTX was a cryptocurrency exchange that collapsed in November 2022, falling from a $32 billion valuation to bankruptcy in days. It filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection after a crisis of confidence in its own FTT token triggered a wave of customer withdrawals it could not cover.

Why did FTX collapse?
The trigger was rival exchange Binance announcing it would sell its entire FTT position, around $529 million, which crashed the token’s price. Underneath that, FTX was accused of undisclosed leverage, price manipulation, and self-dealing between FTX and its affiliated trading firm, Alameda Research.

What is the FTT token?
FTT was the native token issued by FTX and used on its platform for fees and special features. Its value was closely tied to FTX’s own performance and reputation, so it fell along with the company rather than holding independent value.

Who is Sam Bankman-Fried?
Sam Bankman-Fried was the founder of FTX. Once estimated to be worth around $16 billion, he was arrested in December 2022 on fraud charges, in a case prosecutors described as one of the largest financial frauds in US history.

Will FTX customers get their money back?
Recovering the full amount was always unlikely, though there was a reasonable chance of getting at least part of it back. FTX sought to sell businesses including Embed, LedgerX, FTX Japan, and FTX Europe to raise funds and return money to creditors through the bankruptcy process.


The FTX story is dramatic, but the takeaway is boring on purpose: confidence is not collateral, and convenience is not safety. Were you one of the people who had funds trapped in FTX, or did you steer clear? Let me know in the comments.

If you want the bigger picture on how exchanges, tokens, and crypto plumbing actually work, read the pillar: The Ultimate Guide to Blockchain and Cryptocurrencies.

Want a calmer way to trade through chaos like this? Grab the free 15-Minute Swing Trading Starter Kit. It’s the exact routine I use to scan once a day and trade any market in 15 minutes, without betting the house on any single coin or exchange.


About the author. Spencer Li is the founder of Synapse Trading and a Certified Financial Technician (CFTe) with 15 years of trading across stocks, forex, crypto, commodities, and bonds. His trade log is public, 404 trades, losses left in. He teaches low-risk swing trading in 15 minutes a day, one system for any market.

Education, not financial advice. Synapse Trading is not licensed by MAS to advise on investment products. Trading carries risk of loss; past performance is not indicative of future results.


Related

Ultimate Guide to Blockchain and Cryptocurrencies (pillar) · What is Bitcoin and how does it work · How to spot a crypto scam · Risk management for traders

0 Comments/by Spencer Li
https://synapsetrading.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/Thumbnail-Rise-and-Fall-of-FTX.png 720 1280 Spencer Li https://synapsetrading.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/logo.jpg Spencer Li2022-12-18 14:37:032026-07-06 01:59:36The Rise and Fall of FTX & FTT Token (Will Investors Get Their Money Back?)
Spencer Li

Weekly Market Wrap: The Bears are Back!

Market Analysis
2022 09 12 15 31 31

Last week, it was an eventful week filled with exciting news release, such as the CPI (Consumer Price Index) and the FOMC rate announcements.

The CPI showed a lower than expected rate of inflation, so the markets rallied, but it turned out to be a false breakout as prices closed back down by the end of the day.

The next day, the FOMC announced rate hikes in line with expectations, but showed no signs of pivoting any time soon, so the bear market resumed (as we predicted), and prices started heading south.

There is a good chance of prices hitting new lows before the end of the year, so I will gradually accumulate more shorts as my profits (buffer) increase.

If you missed out on the excellent shorting opportunity last week, fear not, because there will be more pullback opportunities to short soon.

Join us for real-time updates and daily trading opportunities in our “Daily Trading Signals” Telegram channel!

 

2022 09 12 15 31 31

[Photo: Iskanderkul Lake & Waterfall, Tajikistan – See my full travel photo log!]

For our weekly market wrap, we go through some of the trade calls and analysis from last week, which gives us valuable insights for the week ahead.

We cover 3 main markets with a total of 200+ counters, so we will never run out of trading opportunities:

  • Forex, CFDs, commodities, bonds
  • US stocks, ETFs, global stock indices
  • Cryptocurrencies, crypto indices

By covering a broad range of markets, we can focus our attention (and capital) on whichever market currently gives the best returns.

Click here to receive all these signals in real-time for only $67 a month! You will get several signals a day, and even taking just 1 trade the whole month can easily cover the fee, so what are you waiting for?

 

Weekly Market Outlook Video

Trading Signals weekly market outlook 131222

Weekly Market Outlook (11 December 2022)

2 major pieces of news this week:
13 Dec – CPI data
14 Dec – FOMC

Stock market indices are at crucial points, so I have placed price triggers so that we will know the moment any breakout occurs.

 

Portfolio Highlights

Trading Signals portfolio updates 131222

Weekly Portfolio Updates (11 December 2022)

With unclear direction on the stock market, the best strategy now is to hold bonds for high yields.

 

Forex & Commodities Market Highlights

Trading Signals NZDCHF 141222

NZDCHF is forming a tight consolidation above the support level, can consider going long with a tight stop below the support level.


Trading Signals CHFJPY 131222

Following up on CHFJPY, it has gone up +399 pips profit since we made the call. Congrats to those who went long! 💰🔥💪🏻

Now, we will continue to hold and see if it can break out of the huge bull flag and make new highs.

 

Trading Signals EURAUD 141222

Exactly as predicted for EURAUD, congrats to those who went long! 💰🔥💪🏻

 

Trading Signals EURCAD 131222

Following up on EURCAD, it is up +673 pips profit since our call! Congrats to those who went long! 💰🔥💪🏻

 

Trading Signals USDSGD 151222

Strong rebound on USDSGD as predicted, congrats to those who traded the bounce! 💰🔥💪🏻

 

Stock & Bond Market Highlights

market poll 171222

A market poll we did last week, and it seems almost 1/2 thought that the market will make new highs, while about 1/3 thought the market would make new lows.

 

Trading Signals all 3 markets 151222

After a false breakout a few days ago on the CPI data, all the 3 US stock indices (Dow Jones US30, Nasdaq 100 US100, S&P 500 US500) are now resuming the downtrend.

I have added more short positions. Will we see new lows before the year is over?

 

Trading Signals CPI news 141222

CPI with economist forecasts

 

Trading Signals FOMC news 121222

https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2022/12/fomc-preview-50bp-hike-increase.html

 

Trading Signals fed news 161222

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/14/fed-rate-decision-december-2022.html

 

Trading Signals US stocks bonds return 121222

US Stocks vs Bonds Returns 1926-2022

 

Crypto Market Highlights

Trading Signals crypto news 131222

US prosecutors consider filing criminal charges against Binance and CZ for possible money laundering and sanction violations

Those with money in Binance, might want to start moving it out just in case:

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-justice-dept-is-split-over-charging-binance-crypto-world-falters-sources-2022-12-12/

 

 

Click here to receive all these signals in real-time for only $67 a month! You will get several signals a day, and even taking just 1 trade the whole month can easily cover the fee, so what are you waiting for?

Good luck, and may next week bring more excellent profits!

0 Comments/by Spencer Li
https://synapsetrading.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/2022-09-12-15.31.31-scaled.jpg 1920 2560 Spencer Li https://synapsetrading.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/logo.jpg Spencer Li2022-12-17 08:09:152022-12-20 16:35:50Weekly Market Wrap: The Bears are Back!
Spencer Li

Weekly Market Wrap: All Eyes on CPI & FOMC Next Week!

Market Analysis
2022 09 17 16 03 35

Last week, we anticipated that there would not be much action in the markets since the big news (CPI, FOMC) would only be happening this week.

That turned out to be true.

We also indicated that the best trading opportunities for last week were: Gold, Bonds (TLT), and possible USD rebound.

That turned out to be true as well, allowing us to make some quick profits.

We also found some excellent forex trades along the way, to add to the profit pile.

This week, we are expecting more exciting opportunities, and possibly a clearer trend direction, which will allow us to take larger trading positions for the medium/long-term.

Come join us in the “Daily Trading Signals” private Telegram channel for real-time signals and trading opportunities!

 

2022 09 17 16 03 35

[Photo: Samarkand, Uzbekistan – See my full travel photo log!]

For our weekly market wrap, we go through some of the trade calls and analysis from last week, which gives us valuable insights for the week ahead.

We cover 3 main markets with a total of 200+ counters, so we will never run out of trading opportunities:

  • Forex, CFDs, commodities, bonds
  • US stocks, ETFs, global stock indices
  • Cryptocurrencies, crypto indices

By covering a broad range of markets, we can focus our attention (and capital) on whichever market currently gives the best returns.

Click here to receive all these signals in real-time for only $67 a month! You will get several signals a day, and even taking just 1 trade the whole month can easily cover the fee, so what are you waiting for? Trading Signals Commodity 050322 emoji

 

Weekly Market Outlook Video

Trading Signals Weekly market outlook 041222

Weekly Market Outlook (04 December 2022)

Not much news this week, with all the big news next week.

Fed has signalled a slowing of rate hikes, which has been priced in last week,

But can markets really turn bullish while rates are still increasing (and kept at such high levels) for one more year?

Best trades this week are: Gold, Bonds (TLT), and possible USD rebound.

Additional point regarding divergence of US stock indices: for a bullish trend reversal to work, all 3 indices need to turn bullish, not just 1 or 2.

 

Portfolio Highlights

Trading Signals Weekly portfolio 051222

Weekly Portfolio Updates (04 December 2022)

Took some small short positions on stocks after the last week’s bullish run up.

If the Fed makes some bearish comments, the rebound might be short-lived.

 

Forex & Commodities Market Highlights

Trading Signals currency strength comparison 051222

Currency strength comparison

Trading Signals EURCAD 051222

Following up on the EURCAD, it is up 481 pips profit since our call, congrats to those who went long! ????

 

Trading Signals USDJPY 051222

Following up on the short trade on USDJPY, it has hit the profit target at the support level! ????

The RSI is now in the oversold region, so it is likely to have some rebound.

 

Trading Signals AUDJPY 051222

Looks like a giant rising wedge breakdown for AUDJPY, and if prices stay below the 200-EMA, it is an additional sign of bearishness.

Good chance that it will continue falling to the next support level.

 

Trading Signals CHFJPY 051222

Confluence of support for CHFJPY, at the previous resistance-turned-support level, and the channel line of the trend channel.

Major trend is still bullish, so this is a potential larger pullback again the major trend.

 

 

Trading Signals XAUUSD 051222

Following up on Gold (XAUUSD), it has rebounded off the support zone as predicted, and is now hovering slightly above all 3 EMAs.

If it can hold above that, and form a small consolidation zone, prices have a good chance of heading higher.

 

Stock & Bond Market Highlights

Trading Signals TLT bond 051222

Following up on the 20-yr Bond ETF (TLT), the price recently crossed above the 20 & 50 EMAs.

If prices can stay above those 2 EMAs, and build a small base, it has a good chance of breaking higher.

We need to wait for a consolidation or pullback before entering because prices are now a bit overbought (refer to RSI).

 

Trading Signals Dow news 051222

The Dow is beating the broader market to a degree not seen in nearly a century.

With the Fed set to keep raising rates into next year, investors and strategists say the Dow could continue to lead the market.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/dow-shines-as-higher-rates-squeeze-nasdaqs-tech-stocks-11670099206

 

Trading Signals Fed monthly meeting 041222

This is the final monthly employment report before the Fed’s two-day meeting on Dec. 13 and 14, in which the central bank is expected to raise its fed funds target rate by a half percentage point. A 50 basis point increase would mark a slowing from the prior 75 basis point rate hikes set by the central bank.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/01/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html

 

Trading Signals inflation news 051222

https://www.wsj.com/articles/must-inflation-be-brought-down-all-the-way-to-2-11670162817

 

 

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0 Comments/by Spencer Li
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