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Switching from Stocks to Forex

LOW VOLUME MAKES IT CHALLENGING

The volume of stocks traded on the SGX has been falling over the years.

The SGX has been plagued by weak volumes; well-known brands like Tiger Airways, OSIM, and Eu Yan Sang have left the exchange. In one article I read, a stock broker told The Straits Times that “stockbroking is looking like a sunset profession now”.

As for the number of IPOs?

Nov 2016: 1

Aug 2016: 2

Jul 2016: 6

Jun 2016: 1

May 2016: 1

Apr 2016: 1

sgxSince the start of 2016, trading volumes have been lacklustre.
Source: ChannelNewsAsia

Not only has volume been lacklustre; the Singapore Straits Times Index has been hovering sideways for most of 2016. Intra-day trading is an impossibility for many because of the huge amount of funds needed to trade stocks in and out.

SAVE MONEY 7 TIMES BY MOVING TO FOREX TRADING

$ – Save Initial ‘Tuition’ Fees

Trade small, make mistakes with small sums of money.

$$ – Save on commissions

Zero commissions, period.

$$$ – Track your stats and make changes

Use myfxbook to track your statistics, and adjust your strategy accordingly.

$$$$ – Charts are free

Pay nothing for charts, forever.

$$$$$ – Trade only when you are not working

24/7 market allows you to choose to trade only when you are free; won’t have to sacrifice your job.

$$$$$$ – Market volatility known ahead of time

Use the forex calendar to know when your forex pair will encounter volatility; no more rude news shocks.

$$$$$$$ – Accumulate expertise cheaply

No need to wait years or pay market strategists to test if your strategy works; try it out on past charts, execute it ‘live’, and see how it goes.

IT’S CRAZY; I DON’T UNDERSTAND WHY PEOPLE HATE FOREX

Some people quip that the forex market is more difficult to trade than the stock market. I beg to differ, because it is your circle of competence that determines your success, not the actual characteristics of the market.

You get to start with as little as $500.

In the Forex market, you are entitled to ‘get a feel of the game’ by risking a few dollars per trade. Most brokers allow you to trade 0.01 lots, which is $0.10 per pip on average!

The quickest way to rack up trading experience is to make many trades and check out the statistics behind your trades. After all, it’s a numbers’ game: with a properly developed trading edge, your account should have a positive expectation and profits should be the norm over the long-run.

You trade ‘live’ and get skin in the game.

There’s this huge debate about ‘live’ accounts versus demo accounts. Here’s the solution: start with a ‘live’ account right from the beginning. Get yourself into the reality of trading, risking money on a daily basis. Sooner or later you will get used to the risk that is inherent to the game.

By learning to make many decisions and experiencing all the different conditions of the market, you would become seasoned enough to trade a bigger size, and fine-tune your own trading strategy. I like what Tom Sosnoff said about learning to trade: “Trade small, trade often.”

No commission charges!

Forex has no commission charges. This may come as a shocker to the stock trader, but for forex traders it is a constant reality. This reduces the ‘tuition fees’ you need to pay to the market as a result of making trades.

Many new traders make any of the following mistakes:

  • Trading the wrong lot size (1.00 instead of 0.10, causing too big a trade size)
  • Going short instead of long
  • Entering a trade only to realize the market is closed

Yes! These mistakes may sound silly, but every trader who has had skin in the game would understand what I just said.

24/7 market; choose when you want to trade.

The great thing about Forex is that you can decide when to trade based on your schedule. That helps people who have punishing schedules: trading in the middle of the night, or during lunch, on a daily basis, works out to a trading schedule that accommodates your lifestyle needs.

 

THE SIMPLE 3 STEPS TO MITIGATE FOREX TRADING RISKS

Here are three simple steps to mitigate Forex trading risks:

  • Think in Percentages – takes the emotion out of the dollars
  • Find an Edge – only an edge gives you a profit in the long-run
  • Stick to One Style – don’t try to be everything at the start

MITIGATE FOREX TRADING RISKSToo many forex traders try to do everything at once. Focus on first becoming profitable; diversifying across trading styles can come later.

If you want to get started on forex trading, what’s stopping you? I’ve shown you 7 ways it can save you money in your trading career.

If not today, then when?

Cheers!

REFERENCES & RESEARCH SOURCES

straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/sgx-turnover-plunges-27-to-206b-in-august
theindependent.sg/business/the-hollowing-of-the-singapore-stock-exchange-sgx/
channelnewsasia.com/news/business/singapore/sgx-reports-on-year/2406994.html
shareinvestor.com/ipo/index.html

1

When people think trader, they think rogue trader Nick Leeson. 20 years ago, a single derivatives trader caused Barings bank to collapse, leading to many quickly labelling forex trading as an evil profession.

Here’s a photograph of that historic event when it happened:

What Makes Them DifferentSource: The Guardian

As most people know, proper risk management would prevent failure on such a catastrophic scale. At the same time, it is unfortunate that some of the most famous traders in the world shot to fame as a result of one big trade that normally rocks the headlines. This results in some traders having the mentality that they just need that one big winner to retire comfortably.

Let’s take a look at two famous examples:

GEORGE SOROS – BREAKING THE BANK OF ENGLAND

Soros famously made $1 billion from shorting the British Pound. This was what made his name famous and he was named the man who “broke the Bank of England”,  apparently due to him shifting (or shorting) $10 billion dollars worth of currency.

ANDREW KRIEGER – TRADED BIGGER THAN THE NZD MONEY SUPPLY

Andrew became famous when he shorted the New Zealand Dollar of almost $1 billion in value,  which was more than the money supply in circulation in New Zealand during that year! Andrew ended up garnering $300 million in profits from this single transaction alone for his trading firm.

We know that these two traders had trading accounts that were unbelievably large. This is not the case for almost all of us. Therefore, we need to gain the skills and knowledge that can bring consistent, decent returns on an average trading account size. The key is to look for sustainability, and this is definitely learnable.

“Trading is not about getting a one-hit wonder. It’s a career decision, and requires as much commitment and passion as building a business.”

Below, I’ve picked out three excellent traders whom I believe will change the way you think about trading.

How many of you can recognize these faces? 😀ANDREW KRIEGERSource: philanthrophyroundtable.org, tastytrade.com


EXPERT TRADER #1: TOM SOSNOFF

TOM SOSNOFFTom Sosnoff sharing option strategies on his daily financial show with his daughter
Source: Tastytrade

Tom Sosnoff started off as a political science graduate working in the Chicago Options Exchange as a market maker. An industry veteran, he quickly spotted the market opportunity in online option trading, and co-founded and created the famous Thinkorswim trading platform. He later sold it to TDAmeritrade for a handsome sum of more than US$600 million.

A maverick of sorts, he is currently most famous for his financial network TastyTrade, where he shares professional trading strategies relating to derivatives and covers topics that are extremely difficult, such as advanced option greeks, and also the very basic. He exhibits some traits that are very rare and valuable to a trader:

  • Substantial and deep trading expertise.

Sosnoff’s knowledge of his area of specialization is admirable indeed. If you are familiar with options, or consider yourself a veteran in the options arena, you might want to think twice after knowing how much expertise he has garnered.

If one wants to make it in the trading arena, one has to be absolutely familiar with the tools of his trade, and the lingo used by industry practitioners. Forex traders, for example, know the ebb and flow of orders throughout the day, such as the Asian/European/American session, and can detect upcoming volatility even before it strikes. For price action traders, the trader can become so proficient that he knows when to stay out of the market within a few seconds.

  • Sharp business acumen.

A trader is ultimately a shrewd businessman. His trades are merely expressions of his ability to spot opportunities for profit, and he quickly knows if he has made a wrong decision. When he is right, he presses his bets and makes the most out of it. Just as a professional poker player knows the odds of every single set of cards dealt to him, a trader knows the odds of every market situation presented to him.

“If you can play poker well, you can probably trade well. Every trader is a shrewd businessman at heart, placing bets where it matters, with reasonable, sound analysis.”

The trader is also absolutely clear of his strategy. Trading without a strategy is as good as flipping a coin, but with a clear plan for attack and defence, the trader is able to defend his account and successfully build his net worth in the long term.

  • Continuous growth.

In his daily financial shows, Sosnoff quips that he has learnt far more in his years explaining option trading concepts, than he learnt while being a professional trader and market-maker in the days of the exchange floor. His team continuously churns out data and statistics on the probability of different option strategies, ranging from basic ones like naked put selling, to exotic strategies like jade lizards and the like.

“Perhaps the reason why most traders fail is they fail to see themselves as entrepreneurs.”

The ability to continually analyse his strategies and develop his domain knowledge is the key to his continual success. Where many of his peers in the trading floor days have left the industry, unable to keep up with the fast-paced world of online trading, Sosnoff has soared way above and carved a niche for himself.


EXPERT TRADER #2: BRUCE KOVNER

BRUCE KOVNERBruce Kovner with his wife
Source: The Kovner Foundation

Kovner made his first trade on credit, borrowing money to execute a soybeans futures trade, where he made $23,000 on a borrowed sum of $3,000. He was interviewed in the famous book ‘Market Wizards’, and in 2003 he reportedly ran an $11 billion dollar hedge fund named Caxton Associates. He is a rather low-profile guy and shuns media attention.

“I have no bias toward any of the markets… I am just as happy a trader in a bear market as in a bull market, rates up or down, commodities up or down.”
– Billionaire hedge fund manager, Mr. Bruce Kovner

  • Develop a strategy that you are comfortable with.

Kovner’s hedge fund trades based on global macroeconomic conditions. In the hedge fund world, this is called macro-trading, and is a common way to manage a large portfolio. His unique approach to the markets has earned him 28% per annum over more than 20 years (every single year!). Just as he says in the quote above, he is comfortable trading any kind of market, in any kind of condition.

  • Really understand what causes markets to move.

Fundamentally, institutions and banks move money because of their view on global macroeconomic conditions, and they express this in the form of price action, demonstrating commitment through their buying and selling.

Although most small traders don’t have the luxury to express their view of the economy with hundreds of millions of dollars, it helps for us to understand where the world is heading toward, so that we can ride on the moves of the institutions.

For example, you may have heard of the famous saying “The trend is your friend.” Sure enough, as long as the trend is clear, it shows that institutions are piling into the particular financial product that you are trading. You don’t argue against a trend; you flow with what the majority of market players are doing. The context of the market is far more important than the trading signal; just because you see a bearish candlestick pattern does not mean it’s a wise trade to short the market – you have to see whether the surrounding price action supports your trade idea.


EXPERT TRADER #3: LEWIS J. BORSELLINO

LEWIS J. BORSELLINOBorsellino trading in the pits as a young man.
Source: Tastytrade

Lewis Borsellino came out of a troubled past. As a young man, he had to live with the shocking murder of his father and having to deal with emotional blow while working at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. He started off as a runner before becoming a formidable opponent in the S&P futures pit. At one point, he claims that he traded so large that market participants looked to him as a sign that the market was going to turn. Apparently, his trading volume accounted for as much as 10% of total trading occurring in the futures pit!

  • Get very, very good at what you do.

His confidence on the pit was astounding. He knew what he was doing, and traders around him could feel it. In those days, the expression and emotional state of the trader contributed to the mood around the arena. With electronic trading, this plays a less important role, but the market still expresses itself with price, and the despair and ecstasy of traders can be understood if you examine price very carefully.

He almost exclusively traded the Standard & Poor’s 500 pit during his 19-year career on the trading floor.

“I was very good at what I did.”
– Lewis Borsellino

Many people use multiple indicators, hoping to quickly find a system to get good as a trader. However, what works is to be very good at at most 1 or 2 indicators, or simply trade with no indicators, so that you can gain the most expertise and be familiar with what really matters.

In the proprietary trading world, some traders only use Level 2 quotes, trade ladders, without any charts! There are other traders that make portfolio allocations, while there are some that engage in high-frequency intra-day trading. It does not matter how you get there; once you have selected something, you need to get very good at what you do.

Now that we’ve covered the lives of these three traders, let’s take a closer look at trading as a possible career path.

TRADING AS A CAREER – WHAT DOES IT REALLY TAKE?

Many traders are frustrated with their trading results because they don’t change their behaviour. They make many, many trades, but fail to ask the right people and seek the right guidance, causing them to make the same mistakes over and over again. If you do what you always do, you will get what you always have been getting.

Lewis Borsellino left the trading floor and entered online trading. Initially, he backed a lot of floor traders financially and groomed them to become profitable, but as time went by, he saw the opportunity in backing both floor traders and online traders, and forced himself to re-learn trading with charts.

If you are still unprofitable in the trading arena, what are you willing to do to make things work out for you? Change your actions, and you will see change in your results!

Anthony Robbins says this really well:

TRADING AS A CAREERSource: Goalcast

Perhaps you are someone considering trading as a possible side income, or even as a career. It takes dedication (time!), expertise, patience, as well as some street smarts in order to become a professional trader.

“If you are considering making a career switch to trading, what are you willing to do to make it happen?”

 

RESEARCH SOURCES & REFERENCES

https://www.theguardian.com/business/from-the-archive-blog/2015/feb/24/nick-leeson-barings-bank-1995-20-archive
http://www.forbes.com/lists/2006/10/6OQE.html
http://archive.fortune.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/2003/09/29/349918/index.htm
http://www.derivativesstrategy.com/magazine/archive/2000/0300qa.asp
http://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/100515/these-are-most-famous-forex-traders-ever.asp

2016 07 10 10.20.49

After trading and travelling to 48 countries across the world, I realised that it is actually not very difficult to trade on the go, since in most countries you can get wifi or buy a data plan, so as long you have your mobile phone, you can easily place trades as you move along.

5 Practical Tips on How to Trade on the Go

 

Here are some useful and practical tips I have picked up along the way:

1. MAKE SURE YOU HAVE A GOOD INTERNET CONNECTION

This is a no-brainer, as the last you want is to be left handing with no internet after entering some trades, and not being able to input your stoploss and targets. Don’t forget to take full advantage of Wifi hotspots at hotels and cafes, or even better, purchase a local SIM card and data plan.

If you have intermittent access to the internet, perhaps because of flights, then make sure you always have a stoploss in place for all your trades.

2. FOCUS ON A HANDFUL OF SETUPS AND PRODUCTS

Since you don’t want to spend too much time browsing the markets, it is a good idea to prepare a simple watchlist beforehand. For me, I usually focus on about 20+ forex/commodity pairs, so that I can scroll through all of them quickly in a few minutes with my mobile phone to look for any good trading opportunities.

And since I won’t be taking many trades, I can choose the best of the best trades, which means that I can focus only the very best setups that I see. When you see an AWESOME setup, it should jump out of the chart and right in your face, and you should feel the rush of adrenaline and excitement to take the trade. If you have to squint at the chart and think thrice about whether it is a good trade, then I would suggest you just let it go.

3. USE A LARGER TIMEFRAME TO PLACE YOUR TRADES

If you are on the move, then obviously you won’t have time to be staring at the charts all day, which means you should not be using smaller timeframe charts like the 5-minute or 15-minute charts. Actually, I won’t recommend using anything less than a 1-hour timeframe.

By using longer timeframes (1-hour, 4-hour, daily), it means that you only need to check the charts at very infrequent intervals, such as every hour, every 4 hours, or once a day. This way, you do not have to constantly worry or stress about your positions, because your stops will naturally be wider (and your positions smaller), so you do not have to worry about the smaller market fluctuations.

4. DO NOT SPEND MORE THAN 15 MINUTES A DAY

Since you do not have to constantly monitor the market, this means that you only have to periodically check and update your positions. You can easily do this by utilising the “wasted” pockets of time that you have throughout the day.

For example, when you are waiting for a bus/taxi/mrt/plane/train, or waiting for your ordered food to arrive, instead of playing some mindless mobile app game or reading random articles of facebook, why not open up your trading app and place some trades instead? This way, you can make some additional income with your spare pockets of time.

5. LEVERAGE ON A GOOD NETWORK OF TRADERS

Lastly, by leveraging on other good traders, you can learn from their trades and hone your skills as a trader.

You can check out our private communities and trading signals here: https://synapsetrading.com/the-synapse-program/

See you soon! 😀

 

P.S. For my full travel photo log and list of countries travelled, please visit: https://synapsetrading.com/travel-log/

mt4 platform demo

This is a simple demonstration on how you can use the MT4 platform to:

  • Add and view charts
  • Add trendlines, support/resistance, indicators
  • Customise charts layout and colours
  • Toggle between different timeframes and charts
  • Place trades using various methods, including the EP, TP, SL

In this video, I did a sample trade on my live account to show how easy it is to place trades, and this can actually be done very easily via my mobile phone as well.

See you there! 😀

pokemon go logo

The Pokemon Go craze descended onto Singapore last Saturday, and I, too, was swept up in the frenzy. 😀

After playing for the past few days, I noticed many striking similarities between trading & playing Pokemon Go, and it struck me that if everyone from all walks of life can be so proficient at this mobile game, it actually means that they have the means and ability to trade on the go as well, and catch profits from the market as well as Pokemons.

pokemon-go-logo

Here are some of the striking similarities:

1. YOU NEED TO AT LEAST KNOW THE BASICS OF THE GAME

Before embarking on the game, you need to at least know the game mechanics, the rules, and some simple strategies to play decently well, and make your time worth while. This means that you should at least read some starter guides, to avoid making the newbie mistakes (such as not starting with a rare Charmander or Pikachu), or not maximising your lucky eggs (by mass evolving your pidgeys and caterpies).

Shoot, I wanted a Bulbasaur lol ? #noobstart

A photo posted by Spencer Li (@iamrecneps) on

2. EVERYONE HAS TO PLAY THEIR OWN GAME (AND PUT IN THE HARD WORK)

Since sharing of accounts is not allowed, this means that every player has to play their own account, which means that if you want to level up or catch good Pokemon, you have to put in the effort and the hours, and if you want to hatch those eggs, you need to clock the miles by walking (or cycling). Hence, there is no shortcut to success here.

Caterpie, I choose you! ? #caterpie #pokemongo #pips
A photo posted by Spencer Li (@iamrecneps) on

3. TEAMWORK WORKS WONDERS AS WELL

Although it is an individual game, teamwork can still help, such as teaming up with friends to take down gyms, or alerting one another of rare Pokemon sightings, so that everyone can capture the same rare Pokemon. This reminds me of trading in a fund, where we took turns watching the market to alert one another when good market opportunities come by, so that everyone can profit from the same moves.

4. JUST LIKE THE MONEY, THE POKEMONS NEVER SLEEP

While observing the PokeGym near my house, I noticed battles raging on all night, even at 4am. I salue the dedication of the players, and it kind of reminds me of traders camping up all night to trade the FOMC news annoucements. But just because the game goes on 24/7, it does not mean you have to be playing all the time. The opportunities to catch Pokemon and fight gyms will always be there, and you have to time and freedom to catch any time and anywhere, as long as you have a mobile phone and internet connection. This is exactly the same as trading for me haha.

This Pokemon gym next to my house is damn epic lol ? #pokemongo #pokegym #temple

A photo posted by Spencer Li (@iamrecneps) on

5. BOTH ARE FUN AND ADDICTIVE AT THE SAME TIME

The reason why both are addictive is because they are fun, and both include elements of luck and skill. The thrill of catching a rare Pokemon is the same thrill as catching a rare strong price movement which nets you a few thousand bucks while having your meal, or waiting for the bus. This is something which I have been trying to explain to people, and if you have caught a rare Pokemon, I think you will understand what thrill I am talking about. 90% of the time it is waiting and grinding, but it is totally worth it when you catch a good one. WOOHOO! 😀

Yessss!!!! Finally managed to hold a gym lol. ? #achievementunlocked #lifegoals #pokemongo

A photo posted by Spencer Li (@iamrecneps) on

To end off, I think that if you are able to learn how to play a complex game such as Pokemon Go, then I’ve got good news for you, beause using your mobile phone to catch moves in the financial markets is way easier. And instead of PokeCoins, you can actually make some real money while playing.

For those who are keen to know where I caught my Articuno, I will be sharing more at my next workshop. 🙂
Check availability: https://synapsetrading.com/trading-foundation-workshop/