Blog: Market Analysis

https://www.wsj.com/articles/in-a-sour-market-agricultural-commodities-are-still-tasty-11652961848

Last week, the stock market continued to fall, so we continued to hold onto our short positions. I am not sure how much more it will fall, so I will just use a trailing stoploss to lock in profits as it continues to fall.

We also decided to add some long-term bond positions, since bond prices have dropped significantly, and we profited from our shorts on the way down.

Crypto remains a wild card, so I am holding a small position (with lots of cash on the side to add more later on), while waiting for a clearer bullish sign to appear.

Overall, we are thankful our portfolio is positive for this year, given the many wild fluctuations in various markets. This is the importance of diversified portfolio allocation, and not putting all your eggs into one basket (one asset class).

[Photo: Tugela Falls, South Africa – See my full travel photo log!]

For our weekly market wrap, we go through some of the trade calls and analysis from last week, which gives us valuable insights for the week ahead.

We cover 3 main markets with a total of 200+ counters, so we will never run out of trading opportunities:

Forex, CFDs, commodities, bonds
US stocks, ETFs, global stock indices
Cryptocurrencies, crypto indices

By covering a broad range of markets, we can focus our attention (and capital) on whichever market currently gives the best returns.

Click here to receive all these signals in real-time for only $67 a month! You will get several signals a day, and even taking just 1 trade the whole month can easily cover the fee, so what are you waiting for?

Portfolio Highlights

Portfolio updates:

? Still holding a lot of cash because now is the time to play safe and make small gains instead of swinging big.

? Overall still net long crypto and net short stocks, but started buying up growth stocks that have gone down the most.

? Decided to take a long position in bonds which is a bit contrarian since most people are expecting interest rates to go up and bonds to go lower. But I have already profited a lot from the move down from the top, so I am willing to start accumulating at this price.

Forex & Commodities Market Highlights

Wheat, corn, soybean, rapeseed and palm oil prices have rallied since Russia invaded Ukraine, with wheat and corn prices up around 60% and 30%, respectively, since the beginning of 2022.

Product: Commodity Index Fund
Name: Teucrium Wheat Fund
Ticker: WEAT
Exchange: NYSE

“The Fund is an actively managed, long only, diversified agricultural ETF that provides futures price exposure to corn, wheat, soybean, and sugar markets.”

Analysis: Looking at the long-term weekly charts, the ongoing war and inflation has driven prices up.

EP: $11 to $13
SL: $10
TP: $17+

Stock & Bond Market Highlights

Comparing all the stocks in my watchlist against the S&P 500. Thinking if I should start buying some of the worst performers to hold for the long run.

Comparing the various stock sectors within the US stock market, from top to bottom:

XLE = energy (+47.53%)
XLU = utilities
XLP = consumer staples
XLB = materials
XLV = healthcare
XLI = industrial
XLF = financial
US500 = S&P 500 (-18.13%)
XLRE = real estate
XLK = technology
XLC = communication services
XLY = consumer discretionary
XBI = biotech (-38.94%)

Eight companies are to blame for nearly half the stock market’s decline this year—and the pain doesn’t end there.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/stock-market-is-top-heavy-but-carnage-is-widespread-11652935180

Product: Bond ETF
Name: ishares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
Ticker: TLT
Exchange: NASDAQ

Analysis: Looking at the long-term weekly charts, it has dipped into the oversold area on the RSI, which suggests at least a medium-term rebound.

Further interest rate increases are generally bearish for bonds, but it is hard to say how much “predicted increase” has already been priced in.

EP: Current price
SL: $112
TP: $145+

Product: US Stock
Name: Twitter
Ticker: TWTR
Exchange: NYSE

Analysis: Keeping an eye on this to see if the deal goes through.

Price is in a downward sloping channel.

The original offer price was $54.20, making the current price about a 30% discount. (if the deal does go through and at the original price.)

Crypto Market Highlights

Best yields in the crypto bear market

https://newsletter.banklesshq.com/p/best-yields-in-the-crypto-bear-market

Click here to receive all these signals in real-time for only $67 a month! You will get 5-10 signals a day, and even taking just 1 trade the whole month can easily cover the fee, so what are you waiting for?

Good luck, and may next week bring more excellent profits!

Spencer is an avid globetrotter who achieved financial freedom in his 20s, while trading & teaching across 70+ countries. As a former professional trader in private equity and proprietary funds, he has over 15 years of market experience, and has been featured on more than 20 occasions in the media.

Weekly Market Wrap: UST Depeg, Terra LUNA Token Crashed 99%!

Last week, the biggest news dominating the headlines is the depegging of UST and the crash of Terra LUNA token, which went from a high of $100+ to almost $0 in a few days.

This caused a lot of funds as well as retail investors to lose significant sums of money, especially since many were staking UST on Anchor protocol for 20% APY, which seemed like a very good deal.

I mentioned during my last Skillsfuture course that the risk of depeg was real, and they should either hedge it (by shorting the UST perp futures), or switch to some better yield farming strategies with much better returns and lower risk. Hence, I managed to dodge this bullet by not having any exposure to UST or LUNA.

Overall, I have the bulk of my portfolio in cash, with a net short position on equities.

For the week ahead, I have posted in my “Daily Trading Signals” some potential buying opportunities in the stock market.

[Photo: Yellowstone National Park, Wyoming, USA – See my full travel photo log!]

For our weekly market wrap, we go through some of the trade calls and analysis from last week, which gives us valuable insights for the week ahead.

We cover 3 main markets with a total of 200+ counters, so we will never run out of trading opportunities:

Forex, CFDs, commodities, bonds
US stocks, ETFs, global stock indices
Cryptocurrencies, crypto indices

By covering a broad range of markets, we can focus our attention (and capital) on whichever market currently gives the best returns.

Click here to receive all these signals in real-time for only $67 a month! You will get several signals a day, and even taking just 1 trade the whole month can easily cover the fee, so what are you waiting for?

Portfolio Highlights

In the past few weeks, we have seen huge declines in various markets, and thankfully the bulk of my portfolio is market neutral (not affected by market movements).

Yield farming continues to generate returns, while crypto losses (which are sometimes hedged) are balanced by gains in the stock market (net short position), so overall my portfolio is still positive.

There are also gains from the appreciation of the USD (against the SGD), since the bulk of my portfolio is in USD assets.

Now, the strategy is to continue to ride on the downtrend (swing trade and hedging), while waiting for the dust to settle so that I can buy more stocks/crypto when the times comes.

Forex Market Highlights

USD remains on top, as it is viewed as a safe haven when everything else is crashing.

Product: Forex
Name: US Dollar / SG Dollar
Ticker: USDSGD
Exchange: N/A

Analysis: Following up from the last analysis, it has resumed the uptrend after pulling back to test the breakout level.

EP: 1.370 to 1.375, or any pullbacks
SL: 1.365
TP: Near 1.400

Stock & Bond Market Highlights

Product: REIT ETF
Name: iShares Global REIT ETF
Ticker: REET
Exchange: NYSE

Analysis: With interest rates heading up, it is no surprise REITs are heading down.

After breaking down from a long consolidation rectangle, prices are expected to reverse to a downtrend.

EP: Current price, or on pullbacks
SL: $27.50
TP: $23.50 to $24.50

Product: US Stock Index
Name: NASDAQ 100
Ticker: US100
Exchange: N/A

Analysis: Following up on this, last night it broke new lows and continued heading down as predicted. Getting pretty close to the first TP.

EP: Current price, or on pullbacks
SL: $13,635
TP: $12,400, $11,000

Product: US Stock Index
Name: NASDAQ 100
Ticker: US100
Exchange: N/A

Analysis: Following up on this, the first TP has been hit! ????

Now, it looks like it can continue heading downwards to get to the 2nd TP.

EP: Current price, or on pullbacks
SL: $13,635
TP: $12,400, $11,000

Crypto Market Highlights

Taking some profits from Ethereum (ETH) hedging short positions! ????

Product: Cryptocurrency
Name: Ethereum
Ticker: ETHUSD
Exchange: N/A

Analysis: Initially I thought that crypto might be able to break free of the correlation with tech stocks, but it seems for now they still move very much in tandem.

Hence, Ethereum has not been spared the recent large drawdown.

The next major support level is the light green rectangle, where prices are currently at, and which might lead to some rebound.

Since the trend is uncertain, I will avoid adding more positions for now, and carefully hedge existing positions.

A few hours ago started hearing that the Luna fundraise had fallen apart.

Difficult to imagine any firm would put their reputation on the line back this dumpster fire.

It's over.

(deleted original tweet about this to not jump the gun, but now it seems clear)

— mhonkasalo (@mhonkasalo) May 11, 2022

Sorry for the multiple articles on UST and Luna, it is currently the biggest news in the Crypto market and has large ramifications. Many retail investors became broke overnight.

Here is one of the best overview explanations: https://newsletter.banklesshq.com/p/ust-luna-meltdown-what-happened?s=r

The Terrablock has officially halted and UST has remained de-pegged from the US Dollar since 9th May 2022.

Click here to receive all these signals in real-time for only $67 a month! You will get 5-10 signals a day, and even taking just 1 trade the whole month can easily cover the fee, so what are you waiting for?

Good luck, and may next week bring more excellent profits!

Weekly Market Wrap: Markets Continue to Crash!

With the market in risk-off mode and making new lows, it is a good thing our current largest positions are in cash and yield-farming, which is why our portfolio is still net positive even though most markets have dropped by 20-80% from the highs.

Recently, a lot of our currency trades have been very profitable, because the market started trending strongly, which makes it easy to ride and profit from these trends (as compared to the stock and crypto market which is more choppy).

At this point, I have quite a sizable short position in stocks, and I will close it only when I think the market has fallen enough. When that happens, I will take my profits and switch to going long. When will that happen? Stay tuned in my “daily trading signals”!

[Photo: Dublin, Ireland – See my full travel photo log!]

For our weekly market wrap, we go through some of the trade calls and analysis from last week, which gives us valuable insights for the week ahead.

We cover 3 main markets with a total of 200+ counters, so we will never run out of trading opportunities:

Forex, CFDs, commodities, bonds
US stocks, ETFs, global stock indices
Cryptocurrencies, crypto indices

By covering a broad range of markets, we can focus our attention (and capital) on whichever market currently gives the best returns.

Click here to receive all these signals in real-time for only $67 a month! You will get several signals a day, and even taking just 1 trade the whole month can easily cover the fee, so what are you waiting for?

Forex Market Highlights

All the safe-haven assets are now at the top, showing that the market is in risk-off mode.

Product: Forex
Name: Aussie Dollar / Swiss Franc
Ticker: AUDCHF
Exchange: N/A

Analysis: Following up on this, the TP was hit, giving us a profit of about 230 pips! ????

Now, it looks like it is heading down, so there is a new shorting opportunity.

EP: Current price, or on pullbacks
SL: 0.6980
TP: 0.675, 0.660

Product: Forex
Name: US Dollar Index
Ticker: DXY
Exchange: N/A

Analysis: The USD continues to spike up, but such a pace of increase is not sustainable, so it should have a pullback soon, maybe when it hits the major resistance near $105.

Product: Forex
Name: Euro vs US Dollar
Ticker: EURUSD
Exchange: N/A

Analysis: Following up on this trade (weekly chart), our first TP has been hit, with 800+ pips profit! ????

Now, let’s see if it can break the support and reach the next TP.

EP: 1.13 to 1.15, or on pullbacks
SL: 1.16
TP: 1.055, 0.920

Product: Forex
Name: New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar
Ticker: NZDUSD
Exchange: N/A

Analysis: Following up on this pair, it has exceeded our expectations and went past our TP, clocking 500+ pips profit! ????

Now, the move looks a bit oversold, so I would expect a pullback/rebound first even if it continues going down later.

EP: 0.687 to 0.690
SL: 0.700
TP: 0.665

Stock & Bond Market Highlights

Product: US Stock Index
Name: NASDAQ 100
Ticker: US100
Exchange: N/A

Analysis: After a small rebound, prices look ready to break new lows again.

Prices have only declined about 24% so far, so there is still a lot more room for a stock market crash if it happens.

Although the NASDAQ 100 and Ethereum have been quite correlated so far, I am hoping that the correlation will break at some point. (Because I am bullish on Ethereum.)

EP: Current price, or on pullbacks
SL: $13,635
TP: $12,400, $11,000

Crypto Market Highlights

Product: Cryptocurrency
Name: Ethereum
Ticker: ETHUSD
Exchange: N/A

Analysis: Following up, Ethereum has finally reached the bottom of the trend channel (after a 25% decline), and is testing the bullish trendline.

This looks like a good low-risk area to take a long position (or add more long positions).

EP: Current price, or on pullbacks
SL: $2680
TP: $3700

The sale of nonfungible tokens, or NFTs, fell to a daily average of about 19,000 this week, a 92% decline from a peak of about 225,000 in September, according to the data website NonFungible.

The number of active wallets in the NFT market fell 88% to about 14,000 last week from a high of 119,000 in November. NFTs are bitcoin-like digital tokens that act like a certificate of ownership that live on a blockchain.

Rising interest rates have crushed risky bets across the financial markets—and NFTs are among the most speculative.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/nft-sales-are-flatlining-11651552616

Click here to receive all these signals in real-time for only $67 a month! You will get 5-10 signals a day, and even taking just 1 trade the whole month can easily cover the fee, so what are you waiting for?

Good luck, and may next week bring more excellent profits!

Weekly Market Wrap: Stock Market Crash Resumes?

Tunnel Winter Olympics Bosnia Herzegovina

Last week, we saw a surge in the USD and CAD, and continued weakness in the JPY. This caused many of our existing positions to hit our profit target, allowing us to lock in profits. Soon, I will be posting the newest forex opportunities in the signals chat.

The stock markets continue to decline as predicted, with a few bull traps (small rallies) to lure in “value investors”, before breaking to new lows. Since I am net short, this means that the more the market goes down, the more profits we make on our positions.

The crypto markets are exhibiting choppy sideways movement, which is great for swing trading. It also allows me to hedge my long-term investment positions, which have made me additional profits while waiting for the long-term bull trend to resume.

[Photo: Sarajevo, Bosnia & Herzegovina – See my full travel photo log!

For our weekly market wrap, we go through some of the trade calls and analysis from last week, which gives us valuable insights for the week ahead.

We cover 3 main markets with a total of 200+ counters, so we will never run out of trading opportunities:

Forex, CFDs, commodities, bonds
US stocks, ETFs, global stock indices
Cryptocurrencies, crypto indices

By covering a broad range of markets, we can focus our attention (and capital) on whichever market currently gives the best returns.

Click here to receive all these signals in real-time for only $67 a month! You will get several signals a day, and even taking just 1 trade the whole month can easily cover the fee, so what are you waiting for?

Forex Market Highlights

Currency comparisons

Product: Forex
Name: Aussie Dollar vs Canadian Dollar
Ticker: AUDCAD
Exchange: N/A

Analysis: Small rising wedge (bearish) after running into major resistance at the top of the wide range.

EP: 0.938
SL: 0.953
TP: 0.918, 0.900

“Took profit at 0.918. Thanks for the call!”

Product: Forex
Name: Aussie Dollar vs Canadian Dollar
Ticker: AUDCAD
Exchange: N/A

Analysis: Following up on this, our first TP has been hit and it is now 295 pips in the money! ????

EP: 0.938
SL: 0.953
TP: 0.918, 0.900

Product: Forex
Name: US Dollar / SG Dollar
Ticker: USDSGD
Exchange: N/A

Analysis: Following up from the last analysis, it has finally hit our TP, netting a profit of 378 pips! ????

The next possible level to look at is $1.400.

EP: 1.370 to 1.375, or any pullbacks
SL: 1.365
TP: Near 1.400

Commodities Market Highlights

Product: Commodity Index Fund
Name: WisdomTree Enhanced
Ticker: GCC
Exchange: NYSE

Analysis: Looking at the weekly charts for a change to see the long-term trends, I realise this has gone up 130% since the bottom, and is now at the top of the large trend channel.

I have closed about 1/3 of my long positions, and will continue to monitor to see if the uptrend ends.

Stock & Bond Market Highlights

Product: Bond ETF
Name: ishares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
Ticker: TLT
Exchange: NASDAQ

Analysis: Looking at the long-term weekly chart of this bond ETF, it seems to be at a major support level.

Is it possible that the market has already fully priced in all potential future rate increases for this cycle?

Not starting to buy yet, just giving a heads-up while keeping an eye on it.

Product: US Stock Index
Name: NASDAQ 100
Ticker: US100
Exchange: N/A

Analysis: Following up on the Nasdaq, prices have finally hit our TP! ????

With prices making new lows, it is likely the downtrend will continue.

The next major support is around 12400, let’s see how prices react once it gets there.

Crypto Market Highlights

Closing some of my hedges (taking profit) for BTC and ETH! ????

Click here to receive all these signals in real-time for only $67 a month! You will get 5-10 signals a day, and even taking just 1 trade the whole month can easily cover the fee, so what are you waiting for?

Good luck, and may next week bring more excellent profits!

Weekly Market Wrap: Full Portfolio Updates & Strategy

With various financial markets in the decline, we are now in “risk-off” mode, and the key idea is to play defensive, not offensive.

In this week’s special edition, I have done a comprehensive comparative analysis of various asset classes, as well as various stock sectors, to see which are the leaders and laggards.

And most importantly, I have also shared my full current portfolio allocation, and my strategic reasons for such an approach.

So far, it has worked pretty well, giving me a YTD positive return, while most financial markets are in the red.

[Photo: Brod, Kosovo – See my full travel photo log!]

For our weekly market wrap, we go through some of the trade calls and analysis from last week, which gives us valuable insights for the week ahead.

We cover 3 main markets with a total of 200+ counters, so we will never run out of trading opportunities:

Forex, CFDs, commodities, bonds
US stocks, ETFs, global stock indices
Cryptocurrencies, crypto indices

By covering a broad range of markets, we can focus our attention (and capital) on whichever market currently gives the best returns.

Click here to receive all these signals in real-time for only $67 a month! You will get several signals a day, and even taking just 1 trade the whole month can easily cover the fee, so what are you waiting for?

Portfolio Highlights

Currently, this is quite a defensive portfolio given the current market conditions, and had managed to stay positive even as most markets have crashed this year.

? Bulk of returns come from yield farming, which gives about 60% returns.

? About 44% is in cash, which is ready to be deployed once the crash is over and the dust has settled.

? Still bullish on crypto and commodities in the long term.

? Net short on stocks since they are currently in a downtrend. As stocks continue to fall, I will reduce the commodities allocation as well, because it will be the next in line to fall.

Comparison of various asset classes for 2022 (YTD):

? GCC (commodities ETF) is my best performer, up about 25% this year, and up about 50% from last year lows.

? Have closed and taken profits on my TLT (bonds) short position, which has dropped about 15% this year, and about 30% from last year highs.

? Tech related ETFs like 3067 (China tech), METV (Metaverse), ARKG, ARKK are some of the worst performers this year. I currently hold a small percentage of ARKK and ARKG, buying in small amounts as they drop further.

? I have hedged by shorting main stock indices like US100 and US500, so overall I am net negative in stocks. The reason for this is I feel high growth stocks have already dropped about 70% from ATHs, whereas NASDAQ 100 and S&P 500 have only dropped about 20+% from ATHs.

? Some of my other stock ETFs are doing ok, like PPA (weapons) and CIBR (cybersecurity).

Going forward, will need to be more selective in picking the right asset class and even sub asset class.

Forex Market Highlights

With stock markets crashing, it is now back to “risk-on” mode, where flight to safety to gold and USD occurs. (Correction: Should be “risk-off” mode.)

Commodities Market Highlights

Following up on GCC, it has broken out of the symmetrical triangle and started to head up.

Stock & Bond Market Highlights

Comparing the various stock sectors within the US stock market, from top to bottom:

XLE = energy (+37.81%)
XLU = utilities
XLP = consumer staples

XLB = materials
XLV = healthcare
XLRE = real estate
XLI = industrial
XLF = financial

US500 = S&P 500
XLY = consumer discretionary
XLK = technology
XLC = communication services
XBI = biotech (-29.70%)

Many stock counters have started making new lows, or are very close, such as:
– Adobe
– AMD
– Coinbase
– Disney
– Meta
– Google
– Microsoft
– Netflix
– Nvidia
– Roblox
– Sea
– Shopify
– Snap
– Snowflake
– Twilio
– Uber
– Zoom

Many of these would be good short trades, alternatively you can just short the stock indices.

On the other end, the strongest stocks on my list are:
– Apple
– Johnson & Johnson
– Coca Cola
– Mastercard
– Visa
– Tesla

Seems like the tech stocks are the ones getting slaughtered, whereas those more related to consumables or retail services are doing better.

Product: US Stock Index
Name: NASDAQ 100
Ticker: US100
Exchange: N/A

Analysis: Following up on the Nasdaq, prices have continued to fall as predicted, which is why I am currently net short on stocks.

I won’t be surprised if prices test the previous swing low or make new lows, so I won’t be going long until the strong bearish momentum comes to a stop.

EP: 14689, or on pullbacks
SL: 15311
TP: 13018+

Crypto Market Highlights

Following up on Ethereum (ETHUSD), it has pulled back to the $3000 level as predicted, and when it recently tried to break lower, price was immediately rejected and it closed back above $3000.

This is a bullish sign, and may be a good signal that the short-term trend is turning bullish, and ready to resume moving upwards.

Product: Cryptocurrency
Name: Ethereum
Ticker: ETHUSD
Exchange: N/A

Analysis: Following up, Ethereum is trading in a small range hovering around the $3000 support.

From here, I see 2 possible scenarios:

1. Break out from here and head up

2. Break down to test the $2800 level near the trendline support, before heading up.

At this point, I would still be net long, but reduce/hedge my positions slightly so that I can buy more should it dip down to $2800.

Click here to receive all these signals in real-time for only $67 a month! You will get 5-10 signals a day, and even taking just 1 trade the whole month can easily cover the fee, so what are you waiting for?

Good luck, and may next week bring more excellent profits!