Blog: Market Analysis

Weekly Market Wrap: Profits from Shorting Stocks & Crypto!

With markets in turmoil, I am currently short on stocks, crypto, commodities (not shown yet, but in the latest updates), which means I effectively have a leveraged cash position.

In addition, all my cash is held in USD, which has gone up about 4% this year, possibly making it one of the best asset class this year. ?

My current strategy is to continue shorting the market to the bottom, then start accumulating (and eventually going all-in) stocks and crypto to ride the next bull market.

Stay tuned for my real-time portfolio updates in my “Daily Trading Signals” Telegram channel!

[Photo: Cape Town, South Africa – See my full travel photo log!]

For our weekly market wrap, we go through some of the trade calls and analysis from last week, which gives us valuable insights for the week ahead.

We cover 3 main markets with a total of 200+ counters, so we will never run out of trading opportunities:

Forex, CFDs, commodities, bonds
US stocks, ETFs, global stock indices
Cryptocurrencies, crypto indices

By covering a broad range of markets, we can focus our attention (and capital) on whichever market currently gives the best returns.

Portfolio Highlights

Portfolio updates: Mainly just short on stocks, crypto and real estate for now.

This is why the USD is my largest portfolio position. ?

https://www.wsj.com/articles/it-was-a-lousy-second-quarterexcept-for-the-u-s-dollar-11656667800

Forex & Commodities Market Highlights

Oil is up again, pushing up the 2 oil-linked currencies.

Daily Chart of NZDCHF

Nearing support, good place to take profits! ????

USDSGD Crossing 1.39710
US Dollar vs. Singapore Dollar
TP1 for long positions

Update on Commodity ETF (GCC)

As predicted in my last analysis, it might have hit the top of the long-term cycle, and has started to come down.

On the daily chart, it has broken down from a consolidation pattern.

This is in line with the bonds > stocks > commodities cycle, and we have already seen bonds and stocks decline.

With the Fed aggressively raising interest rates to fight inflation, this should be bearish for commodities.

Stock & Bond Market Highlights

2801 Crossing 24.06
China Stocks ETF
Breaking out of ascending triangle!

SL: 21.80
TP: 27.52

3067 Crossing 10.320
Hang Seng Tech ETF
Breaking out of ascending triangle!

SL: 9.165
TP: 12.065

Markets Head Toward Worst First Half of a Year in Decades

Investors gird for more volatility; almost everything—from stocks to bonds and crypto—falls to start 2022

https://www.wsj.com/articles/markets-head-toward-worst-start-to-a-year-in-decades-11656551051

Daily Chart of NASDAQ (US100)

Looks like the stock market is ready for the next leg down.

Update on NASDAQ (US100)

Since we shorted near the top as well, there also isn’t much for us to do except wait patiently for the profits to grow. ????

Crypto Market Highlights

“There are companies that are basically too far gone and it’s not practical to backstop them.”

https://www.forbes.com/sites/stevenehrlich/2022/06/28/bankman-fried-some-crypto-exchanges-already-secretly-insolvent/?sh=1578e1b747f7

More hedge funds are betting against tether as crypto melts down

https://www.wsj.com/articles/more-hedge-funds-are-betting-against-tether-as-crypto-melts-down-11656322200

Looking at the recent price action in Bitcoin (BTCUSD) and Ethereum (ETHUSD), I have decided to take profits on my short-term trading long positions, since it has gone up 20-40% from the lows.

I have taken a small short position instead.

Daily Chart of Ethereum (ETHUSD)

Note how low the volume is during this bullish rebound, and the new high volume coming in at the end.

Update on Ethereum (ETHUSD)

Since we shorted near the top, and it has moved about 15% in our favour, there isn’t much for us to do except wait patiently for the profits to grow. ????

Good luck, and may next week bring more excellent profits!

Spencer Li

Spencer is an avid globetrotter who achieved financial freedom in his 20s, while trading & teaching across 70+ countries. As a former professional trader in private equity and proprietary funds, he has over 15 years of market experience, and has been featured on more than 20 occasions in the media.

0 Comments/by Spencer Li

Weekly Market Wrap: Short-term Rebound in Stocks & Crypto

Market Analysis

After a sharp collapse of the stocks and crypto market, last week saw a relief rebound.

I don’t think the bottom is in yet, but I decided to take profits on my short positions to wait for a better price to short again.

I am still holding a large cash position (in USD), which has been performing well relative to the SGD.

I think soon it will be exciting because once the bottom is in, we can start accumulating assets on the cheap which will have the potential to go up 2-3x in the next bull run.

Stay tuned for more updates in my “Daily Trading Signals” Telegram channel!

[Photo: Burj Khalifa, Dubai, UAE – See my full travel photo log!]

For our weekly market wrap, we go through some of the trade calls and analysis from last week, which gives us valuable insights for the week ahead.

We cover 3 main markets with a total of 200+ counters, so we will never run out of trading opportunities:

Forex, CFDs, commodities, bonds
US stocks, ETFs, global stock indices
Cryptocurrencies, crypto indices

By covering a broad range of markets, we can focus our attention (and capital) on whichever market currently gives the best returns.

Portfolio Highlights

Quick portfolio updates:

? Closed my shorts in stocks as I am expecting a short-term rebound, so that I can take profits first and short again at a better price.

? Also riding the short-term rebound in crypto, and will probably reduce positions or short once the rebound is over. But I will also monitor the price action carefully because this could be the bottom for crypto.

? The bulk of my holdings is still cash, because now is the time to play defensive.

Forex & Commodities Market Highlights

“The dollar has assumed the role of the global stagflation hedge with dollar cash being one of the few financial assets offering returns,” wrote Deutsche Bank currency strategist George Saravelos in a note to clients. Stagflation occurs when slow growth combines with rising prices.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/with-markets-in-disarray-international-investors-are-stockpiling-u-s-dollars-11655803800

Of the Fed’s previous 12 big tightening cycles since the 1950s, nine ended with a recession, official figures show.

The BOE has a better record, but roughly half of its rate-increase campaigns since the 1950s still ended with a U.K. recession.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-myth-of-the-central-bank-soft-landing-11655560980

Stock & Bond Market Highlights

Hang Seng Tech ETF (3067)

Seems like we are seeing a small rebound in the China stock market.

EP: current price
SL: $9.045
TP: $12.045

https://www.asiaone.com/world/how-would-us-recession-impact-singapore-malaysia-thailand-amid-surging-inflation

The good news is it typically takes much longer to reach 20% losses than the bottom, which makes sense when you consider not every bear market goes to the extremes.

The good news here is that 7 out of the last 12 bear markets have bottomed in 46 days or less once the 20% level was breached. And 5 out of the 12 were over in a month or less.

https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2022/06/how-long-does-it-take-for-stocks-to-bottom-in-a-bear-market/

Crypto Market Highlights

For those interested in bottom-picking for Ethereum (ETHUSD) for long-term investment, I have placed some alerts at $900, $800, $700, $600, $500 so that I can buy in at these levels. Good luck! ??

BTCUSD Crossing 19622.57
Bitcoin (Crypto token)
TP1 for short positions

ETHUSD Crossing 900.00
Ethereum (Crypto token)
Starting to accumulate at this level

Buying some BTC and ETH for a possible 15-20% rebound from these levels. This is a higher risk short-term counter trend trade, so remember to use a stoploss.

“High APYs, high returns — I don’t think they’re sustainable in the long run,” Zhao says. “New projects can give out these incentives to attract users, but only for a short time.”

“Longer term, DeFi projects can offer eight to 10 percent. They have a real business model, where they earn money from the trading fees which people pay.”

https://vulcanpost.com/792957/weathering-the-crypto-winter-binance-ceo-changpeng-zhao/

Good luck, and may next week bring more excellent profits!

Spencer Li

Spencer is an avid globetrotter who achieved financial freedom in his 20s, while trading & teaching across 70+ countries. As a former professional trader in private equity and proprietary funds, he has over 15 years of market experience, and has been featured on more than 20 occasions in the media.

0 Comments/by Spencer Li

Weekly Market Wrap: Is Crypto Nearing the Bottom Soon?

Market Analysis

Death Valley National Park California USA

Last weekly, there was a lot of focus on the crypto markets, with a slew of bad news, such as the cascading effects of the TerraUSD and Luna crash, Celsius suspending withdrawals, and 3AC capital going under, etc.

These provided good trading opportunities to short crypto and make quick profits, but as the market reaches maximum fear, it could also be a buying opportunity for long-term investors, since crypto is down roughly 75% from all-time highs.

With the Fed aggressively raising interest rates, it has also caused bond and stock prices to continue trending downwards.

I am currently net short on stocks pretty heavily, and will be posting again when I close my shorts and start accumulating for the long run.

Stay tuned in the “Daily Trading Alerts” Telegram channel!

[Photo: Death Valley National Park, California, USA – See my full travel photo log!]

For our weekly market wrap, we go through some of the trade calls and analysis from last week, which gives us valuable insights for the week ahead.

We cover 3 main markets with a total of 200+ counters, so we will never run out of trading opportunities:

Forex, CFDs, commodities, bonds
US stocks, ETFs, global stock indices
Cryptocurrencies, crypto indices

By covering a broad range of markets, we can focus our attention (and capital) on whichever market currently gives the best returns.

Forex & Commodities Market Highlights

Only thing positive is USD/SGD. That’s why I’m holding mostly cash in USD. ??

GBPCAD Crossing 1.59140
British Pound vs. Canadian Dollar
SL for short positions

Stock & Bond Market Highlights

DXY Crossing 102.827
US Dollar Index
Long-term bullish trend, as US raises interest rates

SL: 103.265
TP1: 109.472
TP2: 118.474

As markets go into risk-off mode, the USD is viewed as a safe haven.

And as the Fed raises interest rates, which is likely to happen again on Wednesday, the US continues to climb.

US100 Crossing 11546.1
NASDAQ 100 Index
TP1 for short positions

TP1 hit for US100, waiting for TP2, but watch out for sharp counter-trend rallies!

PPA Crossing 67.03
Aerospace & Defense ETF
Break swing low

SL: 69.51
TP1: 64.34
TP2: 59.32

REET Crossing 23.50
iShares Global REIT ETF
TP for short positions

Congrats on hitting the TP, will wait for another pullback to short again! ????

US500 Crossing 3798.3
S&P 500 Index
Break swing low

SL: 3991.6
TP1: 3547.5
TP2: 3279.7

Product: Index (Measuring Fear)
Name: Volatility S&P 500 Index
Ticker: VIX
Exchange: N/A

Analysis: Historically, the market reaches a bottom once fear has reached a peak.

The VIX is a measure of fear, and as a rough estimate, the market tends to bottom once it reaches 45.

Only twice the fear was so intense that it reached over 80.

I have set alerts for these 2 levels so we will know when it happens.

Crypto Market Highlights

Currently we are about -70% from ATHs for BTC, and -77% from ATHs for ETH.

The strange thing about market bottoms is that the sentiment is usually the worst as the bottom is happening.

Not saying that the bottom is here, but we can use historical data to provide a benchmark for how far prices have fallen.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/business/crypto-firm-celsius-pauses-all-transfers-withdrawals-markets-tumble-2743226

High volume sell-down on Ethereum (ETHUSD) today, trend is still bearish but high chance of a rebound based on observation of past instance of high volume spikes.

ETHUSD Crossing 1434.11
TP for short positions

A quick and clean short-term trade on ETHUSD! ????

Now it is most likely very oversold, so let’s watch for the rebound first.

Good luck, and may next week bring more excellent profits!

Spencer Li

Spencer is an avid globetrotter who achieved financial freedom in his 20s, while trading & teaching across 70+ countries. As a former professional trader in private equity and proprietary funds, he has over 15 years of market experience, and has been featured on more than 20 occasions in the media.

0 Comments/by Spencer Li

Weekly Market Wrap: Stocks & Crypto Resume Downtrend!

Market Analysis

After a tight consolidation the past 2 weeks, the stock and crypto markets finally broke down, and resumed the downtrend.

Hence, we have large short positions on stocks, and I only have a small position in crypto, after selling off most of my holdings.

The current strategy now is to stay in cash or stay short, until the crash is over, then start buying cautiously once there are reasonable signs of a market reversal.

Riding the big market trends means being able to actively rotate between different asset classes to maximise returns and minimise drawdowns.

[Photo: Lake Titicaca, Peru, Bolivia – See my full travel photo log!]

For our weekly market wrap, we go through some of the trade calls and analysis from last week, which gives us valuable insights for the week ahead.

We cover 3 main markets with a total of 200+ counters, so we will never run out of trading opportunities:

Forex, CFDs, commodities, bonds
US stocks, ETFs, global stock indices
Cryptocurrencies, crypto indices

By covering a broad range of markets, we can focus our attention (and capital) on whichever market currently gives the best returns.

Portfolio Highlights

Portfolio overview
? Bulk of holdings are cash and safe assets in yield-farming, because most markets are bearish now

? Started to buy some bonds since it has already dropped 35% from ATHs.

? Holding some crypto and commodities as possible inflation hedge, although crypto is more like a risk asset now.

? Largely short on equities, because the downtrend has resumed. Will start accumulating a positive position once the decline stops.

Forex & Commodities Market Highlights

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-u-s-dollar-is-looking-a-bit-stretched-11654612600

Product: Forex
Name: US Dollar / SG Dollar
Ticker: USDSGD
Exchange: N/A

Analysis: Following up, although the last trade was stopped out, it now shows that the uptrend has resumed.

EP: 1.30, or on pullbacks
SL: 1.368
TP: 1.3969, 1.4394

Product: Commodities
Name: Gold (spot)
Ticker: XAUUSD
Exchange: N/A

Analysis: After some consolidation and whipsaw, it looks like Gold is back on track, now that the market is in risk-off mode.

EP: current price
SL: $1820
TP: $1905, $1990, $2060

Stock & Bond Market Highlights

Product: REIT ETF
Name: iShares Global REIT ETF
Ticker: REET
Exchange: NYSE

Analysis: Following up on this, it has just broken down on a bear flag, and hit TP1. ????

Will continue holding towards TP2.

EP: Current price, or on pullbacks
SL: $27.50
TP: $24.50, $23.50

Product: US Stock Index
Name: NASDAQ 100
Ticker: US100
Exchange: N/A

Analysis: I was expecting another leg of rebound, but after multiple days of tight consolidation, momentum for the rebound stalled and prices continued downwards.

Now, we can expect it to test the next support.

EP: $12358, or on pullbacks
SL: $13000
TP1: $11546
TP2: $10995

Crypto Market Highlights

ETHUSD Crossing 1672.10
Break major support level
Likely to see another huge wave down in the MT/LT

Product: Cryptocurrency
Name: Ethereum
Ticker: ETHUSD
Exchange: N/A

Analysis: I thought there would be some rebound at this major support level, but there has been too much bearish news in the crypto market recently, and prices just broke a new 1-year low.

This does not bode well for crypto as prices could start another major leg down.

EP: Current price ($1672 based on above trigger)
SL: $1936
TP: $1437

TP for short positions
(Note: This was hit just 1-2 days after the signal!)

Good luck, and may next week bring more excellent profits!

Spencer Li

Spencer is an avid globetrotter who achieved financial freedom in his 20s, while trading & teaching across 70+ countries. As a former professional trader in private equity and proprietary funds, he has over 15 years of market experience, and has been featured on more than 20 occasions in the media.

0 Comments/by Spencer Li

Weekly Market Wrap: Stock Market Rebound?

Market Analysis

Last week, our focus shifted from crypto and stocks to the forex market, where several strong trending moves were taking place.

Stocks and crypto have been moving largely in tandem, and are currently having a rebound against the larger downtrend.

How long will this rebound last, and when will the downtrend continue?

Stay tuned on our “Daily Trading Signals” Telegram channel to find out!

[Photo: Lima, Peru – See my full travel photo log!]

For our weekly market wrap, we go through some of the trade calls and analysis from last week, which gives us valuable insights for the week ahead.

We cover 3 main markets with a total of 200+ counters, so we will never run out of trading opportunities:

Forex, CFDs, commodities, bonds
US stocks, ETFs, global stock indices
Cryptocurrencies, crypto indices

By covering a broad range of markets, we can focus our attention (and capital) on whichever market currently gives the best returns.

Forex & Commodities Market Highlights

With oil and commodities on an uptrend, it is no surprise the commodity-linked currencies are at the top.

Product: Forex
Name: British Pound / Canadian Dollar
Ticker: GBPCAD
Exchange: N/A

Analysis: The strong downtrend continues after a small pullback. We can try to continue riding the trend.

EP: Current price, or on pullbacks
SL: 1.599
TP: 1.532

Product: Forex
Name: Australian Dollar / Japanese Yen
Ticker: AUDJPY
Exchange: N/A

Analysis: There was a nice pullback to the support level in the form on a large bull flag.

Though it is a bit late because price has moved quite a bit from the flag breakout point, we can still look to enter on pullbacks.

EP: Enter on pullbacks
SL: 91.00
TP: 99.00

Stock & Bond Market Highlights

https://www.wsj.com/articles/oil-prices-hit-two-month-high-as-china-eases-lockdowns-11653933068

Product: US Stock Index
Name: NASDAQ 100
Ticker: US100
Exchange: N/A

Analysis: The rebound is pretty strong, and on this 4-hour chart, it has formed a double bottom, broke out, and formed a bull flag at the breakout point.

We can consider taking a short-term trade by going long now with a tight stoploss.

EP: Current price
SL: $12420
TP: $13520

Good luck, and may next week bring more excellent profits!

Spencer Li

Spencer is an avid globetrotter who achieved financial freedom in his 20s, while trading & teaching across 70+ countries. As a former professional trader in private equity and proprietary funds, he has over 15 years of market experience, and has been featured on more than 20 occasions in the media.

0 Comments/by Spencer Li

Weekly Market Wrap: Profits from Shorting Stocks & Crypto!

Portfolio Highlights

Forex & Commodities Market Highlights

Stock & Bond Market Highlights

Crypto Market Highlights

Weekly Market Wrap: Short-term Rebound in Stocks & Crypto

Portfolio Highlights

Forex & Commodities Market Highlights

Stock & Bond Market Highlights

Crypto Market Highlights

Weekly Market Wrap: Is Crypto Nearing the Bottom Soon?

Forex & Commodities Market Highlights

Stock & Bond Market Highlights

Crypto Market Highlights

Weekly Market Wrap: Stocks & Crypto Resume Downtrend!

Portfolio Highlights

Forex & Commodities Market Highlights

Stock & Bond Market Highlights

Crypto Market Highlights

Weekly Market Wrap: Stock Market Rebound?

Forex & Commodities Market Highlights

Stock & Bond Market Highlights

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