Blog: Market Analysis

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/25/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html

As I mentioned in my “Weekly Market Outlook” video for subscribers, almost every asset class is very bearish, as you can see from my “Weekly Portfolio Update” snapshot.

This bearishness can be observed in various price patterns, as well as technical indicators and market psychology.

Every week, I publish my full portfolio allocation so there is 100% transparency on my positions and holdings.

At that point, I was short on equities, REITs, and crypto, and all these have plunged a lot since the Fed announced that it will continue to fight inflation (aka. hike rates).

As we continue to stack positions, this could turn out to be the biggest trade of the year if prices continue to drop and hit new lows. I will be monitoring and placing alerts for new shorting opportunities.

Stay tuned in our “Daily Trading Signals” Telegram channel!

[Photo: Tokyo, Japan – See my full travel photo log!]

For our weekly market wrap, we go through some of the trade calls and analysis from last week, which gives us valuable insights for the week ahead.

We cover 3 main markets with a total of 200+ counters, so we will never run out of trading opportunities:

Forex, CFDs, commodities, bonds
US stocks, ETFs, global stock indices
Cryptocurrencies, crypto indices

By covering a broad range of markets, we can focus our attention (and capital) on whichever market currently gives the best returns.

Weekly Market Outlook Video

Weekly Market Outlook (28 August 2022)
? Inflation target of 2%
? CHFJPY – bullish
? GBPCHF – bearish
? EURUSD – bearish
? Commodities – neutral/bullish
? Stocks – bearish
? Crypto – bearish

Weekly Portfolio Update

Weekly Portfolio Update (28 August 2022)

Forex & Commodities Market Highlights

As mentioned in the video, USD is currently the strongest currency.

Following up on the US Dollar Index (DXY), it is forming a small bullish base, getting ready to push new highs.

Following up with the H4 chart of GBPCHF, we can see that shortly after our short entry, prices started to fall.

We are nearing TP1 soon, which is at the prior swing lows, after which we can close half and hold the remaining half for TP2.

Following up on the USDSGD, it has hit our TP level, and for now, we can either stay out or stay short, since the short term price momentum is bearish.

Stock & Bond Market Highlights

Both the S&P 500 (US500) and NASDAQ 100 (US100) have broken below their support levels, and are looking bearish.

Look to initiate or add short positions on pullbacks.

Following up on the NASDAQ 100 (US100) and S&P 500 (US500), both have continue to fall as predicted, after we entered our short positions (circled red).

Both are nearing TP1, and hopefully will reach TP2 by the end of the year. ????

Stocks plummeted Friday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said in his Jackson Hole speech the central bank won’t back off in its fight against rapid inflation.

Crypto Market Highlights

Taking profit on my Bitcoin (BTCUSD) shorts to wait for the next pullback to short again! ????

Taking profit on my Ethereum (ETHUSD) shorts to wait for a next pullback to short again! ????

After a long wait on Ethereum (ETHUSD) and Bitcoin (BTCUSD), it finally broke out of the bear flag pattern and made new swing lows.

Will it head all the way down to test new lows? I will continue holding my short positions, and add more as price continues to decline.

Looks like it will be an exciting weekend! ????

In last week’s market outlook video, I mentioned that Crypto was very bearish, and I had huge short positions on Ethereum (ETHUSD) and Bitcoin (BTCUSD).

It was followed by a huge crash, which I took profits and posted the screenshots.

Now, we are seeing some bearish pin bars, but I will wait for prices to break below yesterday’s low before initiating new shorts.

Good luck, and may next week bring more excellent profits!

Spencer is an avid globetrotter who achieved financial freedom in his 20s, while trading & teaching across 70+ countries. As a former professional trader in private equity and proprietary funds, he has over 15 years of market experience, and has been featured on more than 20 occasions in the media.

Weekly Market Wrap: Fully Loaded on Short Positions!

Last week, as the market continued to edge higher on weakness, we started initiating large short positions on stocks, crypto and REITs.

This was due to many bearish overbought technical indicators, as well as bearish price patterns like bear flags or head and shoulders patterns.

Markets were mostly flat the whole week until Friday, when stocks plummeted after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said in his Jackson Hole speech the central bank won’t back off in its fight against rapid inflation.

Now our shorts are greatly in the money, and we will monitor our positions to see if the decline continues next week.

This could potentially be the biggest trade of the year, if markets continue to fall.

Stay tuned for more real-time updates in our “Daily Trading Signals” Telegram channel!

[Photo: Vernice, Italy – See my full travel photo log!]

For our weekly market wrap, we go through some of the trade calls and analysis from last week, which gives us valuable insights for the week ahead.

We cover 3 main markets with a total of 200+ counters, so we will never run out of trading opportunities:

Forex, CFDs, commodities, bonds
US stocks, ETFs, global stock indices
Cryptocurrencies, crypto indices

By covering a broad range of markets, we can focus our attention (and capital) on whichever market currently gives the best returns.

Portfolio Highlights

Portfolio updates:

Mainly riding the bearish momentum now, and seeing if it leads to a resumption of the bear trend.

Forex & Commodities Market Highlights

With most risk assets heading down again, USD has risen to the top as a safe haven.

Looking at the weekly chart of the EURUSD, you can see that we started calling for shorts since 1.14, and now prices have declined more than 12%.

EURUSD has now broken the crucial 1.000 price level again, and is likely to continue heading downwards.

We can look for more pullback opportunities to short.

GBPCHF is bearish on the daily chart, but having bullish momentum on the H1 (hourly) chart.

Watch and see if there is any price rejection at the resistance zone here to initiate a short trade.

Following up on the H1 chart of GBPCHF, the trade has triggered and is starting to head down.

Another way to trade the CHF strength would be to short the NZDCHF using a tight SL.

The NZDCHF has broken below resistance, and formed a bear flag.

Besides all the USD trading positions we have been posting the past few weeks, you can also consider looking at the CHF.

The CHFJPY is breaking out of a small rectangle pullback, and we can enter early using a tight SL.

Previously, I thought the breaking of support would be bearish for Crude Oil (WTIUSD), but after seeing the tweezer bottom candles and the bullish pin bar, I think it is more likely that was a false breakout and prices will now head higher.

This is why I closed all my short positions on commodities yesterday.

Also, looking at the daily news on water/energy shortage and rising food prices, I think it would be better to be neutral or long on commodity prices.

Power prices in Germany surging

Stock & Bond Market Highlights

Following up on the NASDAQ 100 (US100), I have been accumulating shorts, and prices have indeed fallen, giving me some decent profits.

Now prices have fallen to another critical point, and the breakout on either side will determine the trend for the next few months.

So to be safe, I will be taking some profits, to stay nimble in case I need to switch to long instead.

We have hit the top of the trendline for S&P 500 (US500), and the RSI oscillator is showing an overbought signal.

There might be some correction soon.

Crypto Market Highlights

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) looks like it might finally have broken out of the bear flag pattern, have added more short positions to this.

Monthly and annual performance (%) of Bitcoin and Ethereum over the years.

Good luck, and may next week bring more excellent profits!

Weekly Market Wrap: Is the Bear Market Ready to Resume?

https://www.wsj.com/articles/global-stocks-markets-dow-update-08-19-2022-11660905556

After a strong market rally that last lasted the past few weeks, we have started to see prices come down last week.

Is this just another pullback in the new bull market, or is this the resumption of the bear market?

Either way, it does not matter, because our plan was to take short positions near the top (which we did), and now that we are currently in the money, we can use a trailing stoploss to manage our profits as prices continue to head down.

Just last night, we have already seen crypto prices drop more than 10% in one day, putting the price of Ethereum (ETHUSD) at $1625. For reference, we shorted it near the $2000 level.

Another of our big wins recently is the leveraged long position in USD, which still has potential to make new highs.

Over the medium/long term, I have a more bearish bias, which is why I have accumulated a net short position (about 20% of my total portfolio) on various asset classes.

For more real-time trading updates, and exclusive access to my ongoing portfolio allocations, you can join my “Daily Trading Signals” Telegram group.

See you on the inside!

[Photo: Trakai, Lithuania – See my full travel photo log!]

For our weekly market wrap, we go through some of the trade calls and analysis from last week, which gives us valuable insights for the week ahead.

We cover 3 main markets with a total of 200+ counters, so we will never run out of trading opportunities:

Forex, CFDs, commodities, bonds
US stocks, ETFs, global stock indices
Cryptocurrencies, crypto indices

By covering a broad range of markets, we can focus our attention (and capital) on whichever market currently gives the best returns.

Portfolio Highlights

Portfolio updates:
? Holding a lot of cash, mostly in USD.

? Bearish on crypto, gold, real estate, commodities and stocks

? Closed all long positions after the recent strong bull rally, and decided to take some small short positions instead

Currency holdings update:
? Rotated back mostly into USD, since it looks like it is going to continue trending up

? Closed long positions on AUD, NZD and GBP and took profit.

Forex & Commodities Market Highlights

Might be a good time to start loading up on USDSGD for more USD bullishness.

Following up on Gold (XAUUSD), it is now starting to tip over. Can consider taking a short position with a tight SL.

Crude Oil (WTI) seems to be bearish after breaking down from its large rectangular range.

This could lead to a reduction of inflation pressures.

Stock & Bond Market Highlights

Looks like the US Dollar Index (DXY) is getting ready for another run-up.

Global REITs (REET) have retracted back to the neckline, which is strong resistance, and which also confluences with the 200-EMA.

Took small short positions with a tight stoploss above the neckline.

Shooting star candle formed yesterday on NASDAQ 100 (US100), will need to watch what happens today.

In the short-run, breaking above yesterday’s candle would be bullish, whereas breaking below would be bearish.

Critical point for the NASDAQ 100 (US100)

We have hit the top of the trendline for S&P 500 (US500), and the RSI oscillator is showing an overbought signal.

There might be some correction soon.

Nasdaq now up 23% off its low. Congratulations, we now have the average bear market rally. Across 26 bear market rallies from 1929-1932 and 2000-2002, the average is 23%. After 2000, there were two 40%+ bear market rallies and one 50%+ rally before the market bottomed.

Crypto Market Highlights

Took a small short trade on Ethereum (ETHUSD) near the $2000 round number resistance.

Not sure how far it can go, and it might find support at the 20-EMA, so this is most likely a very short-term swing trade.

Taking profits on my Ethereum (ETHUSD) longs, since prices have run up quite a bit.

In this current choppy environment, it is better to go for many small wins than one big win.

Good luck, and may next week bring more excellent profits!

Weekly Market Wrap: Has Inflation Peaked? Is the Stock Market Now Bullish?

https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2022/08/the-michael-scott-economy/

The latest CPI data showed that inflation was almost flat for the month of July, which suggested the possibility that inflation had peaked, and might be turning down soon. But is this scenario likely?

Since there are so many factors that affect inflation, it is really impossible to tell at this point, so a simple way is to wait for the next 2-3 months and see if the CPI continues to make new lows, or proceeds to make new highs.

Because long-term trends like these take months or years to play out, so trying to predict the trend using 1 month of data is not very useful.

If we look at risk assets like stocks and crypto, they have all rallied a lot since the lows, so I’m not sure how much more they can go from these levels even if the Fed decides to keep the current interest rate levels at status quo.

This is because the impact of increased interest rates are still gradually taking effect throughout the economy, and might lead to further bearish impact. And the Fed is also unlikely to start cutting rates so soon either.

At this point I am more inclined to look for potential shorting opportunities in the stock market, but I will not pull the trigger until the trade signals are given.

Stay tuned!

[Photo: Milan, Italy – See my full travel photo log!]

For our weekly market wrap, we go through some of the trade calls and analysis from last week, which gives us valuable insights for the week ahead.

We cover 3 main markets with a total of 200+ counters, so we will never run out of trading opportunities:

Forex, CFDs, commodities, bonds
US stocks, ETFs, global stock indices
Cryptocurrencies, crypto indices

By covering a broad range of markets, we can focus our attention (and capital) on whichever market currently gives the best returns.

Forex & Commodities Market Highlights

On the forex front, the USD has weakened considerably in recent weeks, which is why I hedged my USD exposure by diversifying in these other currencies.

This AUDUSD trade is almost 400 pips profit! ????

This NZDUSD trade is now 300+ pips profit! ????

This USDCHF trade is now 150+ pips profit in the money! ????

Keeping an eye on the Clean Energy ETF (ICLN) weekly chart as a potential long-term investment, since the US is looking to reduce its reliance on oil.

Stock & Bond Market Highlights

Not much change on the NASDAQ 100 (US100), so we need to exercise patience and not act rashly if the market is not moving much. If price start breaking lower, we can get ready to short.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/feds-inflation-battle-is-far-from-won-11660144110

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/08/bed-bath-beyond-shares-jump-30percent-as-message-board-mentions-soar.html

Crypto Market Highlights

Looking at Ethereum (ETHUSD), the short and medium term trend is actually pretty bullish, with prices above the 20 and 50 EMA.

We can also see where the 20 and 50 EMA crossed over in the red circle.

As long as the momentum is bullish, I would avoid going short, and either stay out, or take small swing trades (buying on pullbacks and selling after small moves).

Do note that prices are still below the 200-EMA, hence long term trend is still bearish, and I have not switched into aggressive accumulation mode.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/billybambrough/2022/08/07/opening-the-floodgates-crypto-braced-for-a-10-trillion-earthquake-as-the-price-of-bitcoin-ethereum-bnb-xrp-solana-cardano-and-dogecoin-swing/

Good luck, and may next week bring more excellent profits!

Weekly Market Wrap: Stock Market at Crucial Turning Point?

https://www.wsj.com/articles/investors-fear-stock-market-rally-will-be-short-lived-11659304749

Over the last 3-4 weeks, we have seen an impressive rally in the stock market, with the main US stock indices rallying 15-20% from the recent lows.

However, in the long run, the Fed is planning to continue raising interest rates, which is bearish for stocks, so I am not sure how long more this rally can sustain.

Personally I have decided to take some small short positions, to see if the market starts tipping over. I have also placed alerts to tell me when the downtrend resumes so that I can add more short positions.

Stayed tuned for more updates in our “Daily Trading Signals” Telegram channel!

[Photo: Brandenburg Gate, Berlin, Germany – See my full travel photo log!]

For our weekly market wrap, we go through some of the trade calls and analysis from last week, which gives us valuable insights for the week ahead.

We cover 3 main markets with a total of 200+ counters, so we will never run out of trading opportunities:

Forex, CFDs, commodities, bonds
US stocks, ETFs, global stock indices
Cryptocurrencies, crypto indices

By covering a broad range of markets, we can focus our attention (and capital) on whichever market currently gives the best returns.

Portfolio Highlights

Portfolio Updates (03 Aug 2022)

Very defensive portfolio now, since most markets have rallied within a bear trend, and it is not clear if the rebound will continue or the bear trend will resume.

Forex & Commodities Market Highlights

USD continues to weaken, with other currencies starting to gain strength.

AUDUSD trade is also in the money, up 200+ pips profit! ????

GBPUSD trade is in the money, up 300+ pips profit! ????

NZDUSD trade is also in the money, up 150+ pips profit! ????

USDCHF has broken a major support level, we might see prices heading lower.

Now that the first TP for Gold (XAUUSD) is hit, it is a good idea to take at least half profits or full profits, because price is at a strong resistance level. ????

The commodities ETF (GCC) looks like it might be resuming its downward swing soon.

Stock & Bond Market Highlights

Looking at the global REIT ETF (REET), I have decided to take a small short position, with a stop above the prior swing high.

The NASDAQ 100 (US100) is currently at a crucial price level, bear the top of the channel and at resistance.

We will need to see which way it breaks out from. I am about 65% bearish and 35% bullish.

I have placed price alerts so we will know once it breaks out from either side, and I will likely go short if it breaks the swing low.

The NASDAQ 100 (US100) has reached the top of the trend channel, and is also at the 200-EMA.

It has rallied an impressive 21% since the low in June. But is this a bull trap?

I am hesitant to go long at this price level, so I will watch and wait a while more. I will also want to see some bearish price action before going short.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/individual-investors-ramp-up-bets-on-tech-stocks-11659221897

Crypto Market Highlights

Looking at Ethereum (ETHUSD), the trend for crypto is not very clear, so I will be staying out and waiting for a better opportunity.

Good luck, and may next week bring more excellent profits!