Last month, I went for a short trip to the Philippines, firstly to Manila as an invited guest speaker at the Traders Fair Expo, before making my way down to Pico De Loro for some sun and beach. 😀
To see the full photo albums for this trip, please visit: https://synapsetrading.com/travel-log/
Once again, to see the full photo albums for this trip, please visit: https://synapsetrading.com/travel-log/
Enjoy! 😀
Since the crash of 2008, and the recovery which started in 2009, the stock markets (especially the US markets), have been on a steady uptrend.
Chart: S&P 500 index (weekly chart)
Many of us have heard about the 10 year cycle, where the market is supposed to crash once every 10 years, for example the Asian markets during the 1997 currency crisis, and the global markets in 2007 during the subprime crisis.
However, in 2017, we did not see any significant crash or correction, which have led many analysts to rethink the theory.
So, in 2019-2020, should we be expecting a delayed crash, or are we experiencing a structural change in the markets?
If we observe the supercycles of major human technological innovations, we see that each major wave of progress is driven by a major technological innovation, such as the steam engine in the 1700’s or the internet and IT advancements in the 1900’s.
And based on the cycles, we could be in the early stages of the 6th wave, which is going to be driven by the upcoming huge advancements in applications of big data, artificial intelligence, virtual reality, augmented reality, internet of things, and blockchain technology.
Source: The Market Oracle
This means that we could be on the cusp of a super bull market, if these technological advancements are able to create a quantum leap in productivity for businesses and a huge jump in the standards of living across the globe. All these would translate into stronger stock prices, which instead of crashing the market, would propel it to new heights.
However, there are also major concerns:
In summary, many retail investors are wary of entering the stock market now because it is at all time highs and has already “gone up a lot” since 2009, hence they are waiting for a “big crash” before going in.
However, this big crash may not come if successful widespread application of new technologies and innovation are able to drive a quantum leap in productivity.
Last week, I was invited for another overseas speaking engagement to share about my “15 minute trading strategies”, and this time it was in Manila, Philippines.
After speaking at the Traders Fair, I was also invited to join the Gala Dinner at night, and since I was in Manila, I decided to take a couple of days off to tour the place, and also visit a beach resort.
I will be writing more about my trading & travelling adventures in the next blog post. 😀
Click here for full photo album: https://www.facebook.com/pg/synapsetrading/photos/?tab=album&album_id=10155768976657933
Once again, a big thanks to the organisers! 😀
Recently, during an interview, I was asked this question, to suggest a possible portfolio allocation for people in their early 30s, with $250k of investible cash to start with. Here is my answer in full:
If you only have $250k to start with, I would suggest a diversified approach of various asset classses to maximise returns:
Currently, the bulk of the holdings is in cash, since the market is pretty “risk-on” at the moment with much political and economic uncertainty about trade wars and real wars. Hence, I only included minimal stock holdings, as the stock markets (S&P 500)are at 10-year highs, so I will wait to buy in at a lower price should the opportunity arise.
One important factor is the 20% allocation to trading account, as this generate monthly cashflow from stocks/forex trading to continue growing the total portfolio size aggressively, which can then be allocated to other asset classes within the portfolio.
10% to cryptocurrencies and startups is considered a “wild bet” which could be a zero or hero; lastly 20% to businesses is for people who have some prior experience to invest directly in businesses, or start their own. Personally, my portfolio includes several businesses, including a cafe and pub.
I have allocated 20% to commodities, as commodities are likely at their cycle low. The GSCI (Goldman Sachs Commodity Index) is one of the main benchmark for commodity prices, and the (GSCI/S&P 500) is used to measure the prices of commodities relative to stock prices. Currently, this measure is at a 50-year low, which suggests cheap commodities as a potential investment.
I have excluded real estate from this sample portfolio, as I do not include “own stay” property as an investment asset, and $250k is too small for any major property investment. For my own portfolio, i have invested in several properties as I feel that the Singapore property market will continue to rise for the next 5-10 years.
I have also excluded fixed income, as for Singaporeans, the CPF (SA account at 4%) is pretty much similar to a “risk-free” high-yield bond, hence it serves well as the fixed income component of the portfolio. For my own portfolio, i have hit the minimum sum, which will provide a good safety net for retirement. For non-Singaporeans, any pension/retirement scheme which offers a fixed payout would serve the same purpose.
I hope this has provided you a good template to start building your portfolio, but do keep in mind that ideally you should be looking to rebalance your portfolio every 1-3 months.
This coming weekend, I has been invited to speak at Philippines (Manila), and to take part in the Gala Dinner.
I will be sharing about my trademark “15 minute strategies”, and how they have helped me maintain my consistent returns while travelling across 50+ countries.
And after the event, I might also be taking a few days off to tour the area, so do drop me a PM if you are around the area!
Thank you Finexpo for the invitation! 
