Tag Archive for: forex trading

9994959

About 2 weeks ago, I was invited to speak at the Show FX Asia Conference 2017, and it was great fun sharing to a full-house crowd about my 15-minute forex trading strategies, as well as the latest updates on the market.

In recent years, the markets have been evolving quickly, and strategies need to be adaptive and innovative to continue to reap profits from the market. The key is in the continuous research and improvement. Old strategies that worked 5-10 years ago no longer work now, and many traders do not realise this.

That is why I have never stopped reading and learning. And neither should you. Cheers! 😀

FX Asia Conference FX Asia Conference 2 FX Asia Conference 3 FX Asia Conference 4

2017 06 16 14.54.02 1

Last week, we had some pretty decent trades in, netting close to US$2,000 in profits for a handful of quick trades, riding on the strength of the USD after the FOMC.


An Exciting Week of Trades

An Exciting Week of Trades 2

An Exciting Week of Trades 3

 

Also took the chance to check out my new house:

 

For those who are keen to join our private network for timely trade calls, you can reserve your spot here, but do so early, as we only allow 20 new people to join each quarter!
Register: https://synapsetrading.com/the-synapse-program/

best currency trades

Have you ever wondered, what are some of the most epic forex trades that went down in history? And more importantly, what crucial insights and lessons can we learn from these legendary traders?

1) ANDY KRIEGER – $300 MILLION PROFIT

Andy Krieger is a somewhat unknown trader who made his name at Bankers Trust. He was watching currencies in 1987 after the Black Monday crash, and he saw an opportunity for arbitrage in some overvalued currencies. He became famous because he shorted a few hundred million dollars worth of Kiwi (New Zealand’s currency), and he shorted so much that his position was said to exceed the money supply of New Zealand as a nation.

Andy shorted so much currency that there was not enough currency in circulation to support the short.

The kiwi fell tremendously while he was shorting it and made $300 million for Bankers Trust. Legend has it that a worried New Zealand government official called up Krieger’s bosses and made threats to him. Krieger later left the firm to work for George Soros in his quantum fund.

 

2) STANLEY DRUCKENMILLER – $2 BILLION TRADE

Stanley Druckenmiller made this historic trade as a trader working for George Soros’ Quantum Fund. He went long on the German mark because of the fall of the Berlin Wall, and the undervaluation that was going on during the reunification between East and West Germany. Legend has it that Stanley initially bet a few hundred million dollars, until Soros told him to raise the bet to $2 billion. That year, the Quantum fund brought in 60% returns.

Stanley is a rather unknown person, but the fact that George Soros hired him is worth noting.

Another trade that Stanley made was in the 1990s. He was buying German bonds, because he expected investors to move from British bonds to German bonds. It was also during the period where Soros broke the Bank of England.

 

3) GEORGE SOROS – $1 BILLION PROFIT IN THE POUND

George Soros became famous because he shorted the pound aggressively, in fact, so aggressively that he borrowed heavily and make $1 billion in the process.

At that time, Britain wanted to keep the value of the pound above 2.7 German marks, a key feature of the fixed exchange rate mechanism. Many speculators began to take up short positions in the expectation that this fixed exchange rate would not hold.

This was the famous ‘broke the British bank’ trade that shot George Soros to stardom.

Britain even raised its interest rates to double digits to try to attract investors and prop up the buying in its currency, however, the British government soon realized that it would lose lots and lots of money trying to keep the value of the pound. Soros made $1 billion for his fund on this trade.

 

4) PAUL TUDOR JONES – $100 MILLION PROFIT SHORTING BLACK MONDAY

The U.S stock market experienced its largest 1-day percentage decline ever on Black Monday of 1987. This was the most shocking fall the world had seen at that point, and even up to today, no 1-day decline has ever matched Black Monday.

Betting on a black swan event netted Paul Tudor Jones $100 million in profits.

PAUL TUDOR JONESThe 22.6% drop in the Dow in 1987 has not been rivaled even up to 2017.
Source: stock-market-crash.net

Paul Tudor Jones shorted the stock market, tripling his money, and making US$100 million on that trade while the Dow Jones plummeted 22%.

 

5) ANDREW HALL – $100 MILLION PROFIT BETTING ON OIL

While working for Citigroup, Andrew Hall predicted a 5-year bull-run in oil from 2003-2008, and made the appropriate trades. Oil went from $30 to $100, and Hall brought with him $100 million as part of his compensation plan.

Andrew Hall made it big on oil in his career at Citigroup.

Aside from this brilliance, he reportedly bought 1 million barrels of physical oil in 2009, and stored it, hoping that oil would rise greatly. It did, and from 2009-2011, oil went from $50 to $100. However, his oil fund hasn’t been doing well in the past 5-6 years, and he has had to repeatedly explain the lack of profits to investors.

 

6) DAVID TEPPER – $4 BILLION PROFITS BUYING BANK STOCKS

David Tepper’s strategy was simple; buy low, sell high. In early 2009, he scooped up big banks like Citigroup and Bank of America, and saw them quadruple and triple in value from their bottoms in 2009.

Nothing spectacular; buy low, sell high.

These trades earned $7 billion for Tepper’s hedge fund. His personal compensation was $4 billion.

 

7) LOUIS BACON – 86% RETURNS BETTING SADDAM HUSSEIN WOULD INVADE KUWAIT

Louis Bacon went long on oil, short on stocks in the 1990s because of this geopolitical situation. Later, he also correctly bet that the U.S. would quickly defeat Iraq and the oil market would recover.

Bacon’s event-based bets rewarded him handsomely.

LOUIS BACONLouis Bacon explaining what he knows best; geopolitical event trading.
Source: Quotesgram

His hedge fund returned 86% that year because of these trades. Although his strategy is somewhat unconventional, he has excelled in it and carved a niche for himself.

 

KEY TAKEAWAYS

Many of these traders had decades of trading experience under their belts. Although they all seem like they had a great stroke of luck or a brief moment of brilliance, the preparation and practice that they went through was thorough and gruelling.

I hope that these stories of real traders would motivate you to continue at your game, brush up your skills, engage the financial markets, and stay up-to-date with what’s going on.

Dangerous Myths About Trading that Could be Affecting Your Profitability

If you listen frequently to the mainstream media, or take advice from friends and family who are not traders themselves, they might give some good-intentioned but ill-informed advice, which could harm your trading results.

Such dangerous myths about trading might seem to be “common knowledge” because they keep getting repeated frequently, but have you stopped to consider whether they are really true?

Here are some common myths:

  • Trading is very risky because you can lose all your capital
  • Forex is more risky than stocks
  • Leverage increases your risk
  • You need a lot of capital to start trading
  • You need to trade very often if you want to make more money
  • You need to monitor prices and charts 24/7
  • Brokers are out to hunt your stoploss

Do these sound familiar?

Today, I will tackle 3 of the most common myths.

 

MYTH #1: TRADING WITH LEVERAGE INCREASES YOUR RISK

(Reality: Trading with leverage reduces capital required, but risk can be kept the same.)

The media handles the idea of leverage very poorly, because it often sensationalizes the trader who over-leverages and blows everything.

The idea is simple: I have $100, and I leverage so that I can trade $500 or $1000 of stock/forex. I make one bad trade, and I’m wiped out.

This is true for the person without proper risk-management. After all, the temptation of leverage is to dump all your money into one trade, max out the leverage, and hopefully you make 500% on one trade and can call it a day. The truth is, these lucky trades do happen in reality. Eventually though, the trader with his newfound wealth (and greed), piles his money into another trade, and loses everything.

Leverage kills the person who abuses it. It’s like fire; it can cook food for people, or it can kill people.

Leverage, in practice, actually keeps you disciplined. In forex trading, using leverage is actually a standard practice. When you use leverage, you are actually committing less margin to a trade, and you can get comfortable with trading by committing as little margin as possible. Here’s what I mean:

For example, suppose you have a stop loss of -$10 and a target profit of +$30, and you make a trade of unknown size X.

1:100 leverage – Margin committed for X lots = $102.50 (I’m making this up)

1:500 leverage – Margin committed for X lots = $20.50 (five times smaller)

In the case of higher leverage, you stay comfortable because even though the stop loss is -$10, you see that the margin committed on your account is only $20.50. This allows you to not have to see the wild fluctuations in margin requirement, and keep your trading size small.

Also, trading with higher leverage allows you to take multiple positions with little capital. With as little as $500, you can take 3-5 forex positions with leverage, risking anywhere from $5 to $20 or so for each trade. This is a great way to start for aspiring forex traders.

 

MYTH #2: BROKERS ARE OUT TO HIT YOUR STOP LOSSES

(Reality: You get stopped out because of the market, not because of the broker.)

Many people who have been trading for some time get convinced that the broker wants them to be stopped out of their positions. I’ve heard of this and seen it happen: the trade hits your stop loss, then immediately goes in your favour and flies in the direction you want, and then you beat yourself up and say “I was supposed to make $XYZ on this trade but I got stopped out because of the stupid broker!”

The truth is, the broker has better things to do than to keep hunting the stoploss on your account.

At least, this is for brokers who want to remain in business over the long-term. How do brokers make money? They make money only if you keep trading. Why would any broker want you to stop trading? They would actually want you to be profitable, because for every trade you make, they get a small cut from the spread (also known as the bid-ask spread). Essentially, they want you to love trading and trade so much and so often that they get large revenues from spreads.

Why in the world would the broker want to stop you out?The reason why we get stopped out, is because we are bad traders.

Professionals are buying or selling exactly where your stop loss is placed, because they know that the average investor would place their stop loss there.

The solution to not getting stopped out, is to first acknowledge that trading involves some positions getting stopped out. Being right 40-50% of the time is already sufficient for you to be profitable, so don’t be surprised if half your positions get stopped out.

One example is a sideways market. Beginners love to enter on sideways markets because it presents many signals in both directions. However, professionals are buying and selling at the extremes of the sideways markets, causing beginners to get stopped out repeatedly, while professionals make money repeatedly.Remember that there is another trader on the other side who is filling your order; if you are losing money, it is because someone else is taking money from your account, and putting it in their account.

MYTH #3: FOREX IS MORE RISKY THAN STOCKS

(Reality: Risk is independent on the product, and forex actually requires less capital.)

In the forex market, you can ‘get a feel of the game’ by risking a few dollars per trade. By trading the smallest lot size (0.01 lots), you can easily make many trades and rack up trading experience by “trading live” without incurring hefty losses. By learning to make many decisions and experiencing all the different conditions of the market, you would become seasoned enough to trade a bigger size, and fine-tune your own trading strategy to become profitable in the long-run.

Many traders discover they have certain characteristics about themselves that hinder success. In trading a ‘live’ account with a small sum of money, they are putting in some skin in the game, and getting used to the ups and downs of their account. The best part about forex is that there are no fixed commission charges (stocks tend to have a fixed minimum fee regardless of trade size), making the ‘tuition’ fees a lot less than trading in stocks.

Another great thing about forex is that thee market is open 24/7 on weekdays, so you can decide when to trade based on your schedule. That helps people who have busy working schedules: trading in the middle of the night, or during lunch, on a daily basis, works out to a trading schedule that accommodates your lifestyle needs.

Lastly, with regards to price movements, stocks tend to see bigger gaps between days. Here’s what I mean:

 

forexForex pairs/currency futures tend to have less gaps between bars; bars close and open at roughly the same price.

 

stockMost stocks have gaps between the candlesticks/bars, due to the opening and closing of the market every day.

 

Gaps make the analysis a little more complex, because you have to take into account the size of the gap along with the actual candlestick printed on the chart. Forex allows you to employ technical analysis more simply, and learn how to read price action without the distraction of having to figure out what the gap means.

 

thumbnail beginner guide to trading and TA

If you would like to learn how to get started in trading, also check out: “The Beginner’s Guide to Trading & Technical Analysis”

penang market outlook

This coming Saturday (25 Feb 2017), I have been once again invited to speak in Malaysia about the market outlook, and this time I will be speaking in Penang! [Scroll all the way down to register.]
 


 
For those of you (outside Singapore) who don’t know me, I am a professional trader with over 10 years of market experience, and have been featured more than 20 times in various media. I hold double degrees in accounting & finance (dean’s list), and I’m also a globally accredited CFTe, and one of the few official trainers for the Singapore Stock Exchange (SGX).


I was thrust into the media limelight when I retired at 27 (in 2013) and spent the next few years travelling around the world (50+ countries) while trading just 15 minutes a day.

Since this is my first time in Penang, I will be conducting an exclusive FREE workshop to share the 4 strategies that my students and I use to make 20-40% annual returns consistently. These strategies work for stocks, forex, CFDs, etc.

In addition, I will be logging into my live trading account to show my all my trades and also the records of my students.

Workshop details:

  • Date: 25 February 2017
  • Time: 9.00 am to 12.00 pm
  • Venue: YMCA Penang

To register, please whatsapp +65-9772-4280 or email info@synapsetrading.com with the following details:

  • Full name
  • Email address
  • Contact number
  • Number of tickets

Seats are very limited for this one-time event, so it will be based on a first-come, first-serve basis.

Good luck, and see you there! 😀