Blog: Market Analysis

https://www.wsj.com/articles/global-stocks-markets-dow-update-07-27-2022-11658907223

Last week, the stock and crypto market continued to rally, despite the rate hikes by the Fed, and the mixed bag of company earnings.

If this is indeed a bear market rally (aka. temporary rebound), stocks have gone up 10-20% from the lows, while crypto has gone up 30-100% from the lows.

We seem to have a strange situation where there is a lot of bad news – inflation, rate hikes, recession, bad earnings, companies firing staff, higher oil prices, war, etc, but the markets seem to keep rebounding higher.

So could it be a case where the experts are wrong and the market has already bottomed, or is this rally simply a bull trap before another sell-down?

Stay tuned for more real-time updates and trading opportunities in my “Daily Trading Signals” Telegram channel!

[Photo: Zakopane, Poland – See my full travel photo log!]

For our weekly market wrap, we go through some of the trade calls and analysis from last week, which gives us valuable insights for the week ahead.

We cover 3 main markets with a total of 200+ counters, so we will never run out of trading opportunities:

Forex, CFDs, commodities, bonds
US stocks, ETFs, global stock indices
Cryptocurrencies, crypto indices

By covering a broad range of markets, we can focus our attention (and capital) on whichever market currently gives the best returns.

Portfolio Highlights

Portfolio Updates (29 Jul 2022)

Portfolio Updates (30 Jul 2022)

Forex & Commodities Market Highlights

USD seems to have weakened in recent weeks, relative to other currencies.

USDSGD Crossing 1.38216
US Dollar vs. Singapore Dollar
Reached bottom of trend channel

After hitting the target at the bottom of the channel, the USDSGD looks like it might resume the uptrend.

I have set the alert to trigger once it breaks a new swing high.

Now that Gold (XAUUSD) has hit strong support, we could see a rebound.

Stock & Bond Market Highlights

Stock Futures Rise Ahead of Fed Decision.

Markets largely expected the move after Fed officials telegraphed the increase in a series of statements since the June meeting. Stocks hit their highs after Fed Chair Jerome Powell left the door open about its next move at the September meeting, saying it would depend on the data. Central bankers have emphasized the importance of bringing down inflation even if it means slowing the economy.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/27/fed-decision-july-2022-.html

The S&P just had a record two-day, post-Fed meeting rally, gaining nearly 4% today and yesterday. The second biggest post-Fed rally was in March, followed by the meeting in August 1971.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/global-stocks-markets-dow-update-07-29-2022-11659080320

For stocks the direction of the NASDAQ 100 (US100) is also not very clear, so in times like this it is best to close positions and stay out, especially since there will be rate hikes next week.

I have placed alerts on this chart so we will know the moment prices break up or down.

Crypto Market Highlights

Does Ethereum (ETHUSD) look like a potential rising 3 methods pattern?

Decided to take some short positions on Ethereum (ETHUSD) and Bitcoin (BTCUSD), let’s see how it turns out!

SL on the chart is hit, I think now it’s bullish.

After the failed downside breakout of Ethereum (ETHUSD), it now looks bullish. Can consider taking a small long position instead.

Good luck, and may next week bring more excellent profits!

Spencer is an avid globetrotter who achieved financial freedom in his 20s, while trading & teaching across 70+ countries. As a former professional trader in private equity and proprietary funds, he has over 15 years of market experience, and has been featured on more than 20 occasions in the media.

Weekly Market Wrap: Is the Recent Rally a Bull Trap?

https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2022/07/the-last-time-inflation-was-this-high/

Bialowieza Primeval Forest Hajnowka Poland

The last 1-2 weeks, we have seen sizable rallies (20-40%) in various market like stocks, crypto, etc. Does this mean the bear market is over?

It is actually quite common to see such large rallies during a bear market, but personally I won’t be going too aggressive since it could just be in the middle of a bear market.

The better approach would be to stay nimble, taking swing trading positions to ride these bear market rallies, but always be ready to get out the moment the bear market resumes.

The last few weeks have been very good for crypto trading, and I counted 9 successful profitable swing trades in a row so far, so stay tuned to continue watching how far this winning streak can go!

I will be posting daily portfolio updates and trading opportunities in my “Daily Trading Signals” Telegram group, so join us if you want to start profiting with us!

[Photo: Bialowieza Primeval Forest, Hajnówka, Poland – See my full travel photo log!]

For our weekly market wrap, we go through some of the trade calls and analysis from last week, which gives us valuable insights for the week ahead.

We cover 3 main markets with a total of 200+ counters, so we will never run out of trading opportunities:

Forex, CFDs, commodities, bonds
US stocks, ETFs, global stock indices
Cryptocurrencies, crypto indices

By covering a broad range of markets, we can focus our attention (and capital) on whichever market currently gives the best returns.

Portfolio Highlights

Portfolio updates (20 Jul 2022)

Currently have about 6% in stocks and 6% crypto to ride the current bullish momentum.

More detailed portfolio notes, will be sharing this more often in future for quick and easy reference.

ST = short-term
MT = medium-term
LT = long-term

Portfolio Updates (22 Jul 2022)

Taking profits off long positions in stocks and crypto, especially the latter which has a strong run-up the past few days.

Forex & Commodities Market Highlights

Currency strength is shifting away from the USD for now.

The AUDUSD is currently resting on strong support, might have a rebound within the range.

The NZDUSD might also be having a rebound, but in the form of a falling wedge.

Similar to the NZDUSD, the GBPUSD is also forming a similar wedge shape.

The USDSGD looks like it is correcting back to the bottom of the uptrend channel.

Stock & Bond Market Highlights

So in 1981 consumers were looking at 10% savings account yields, 17% mortgages, 10% bond yields and 9% inflation.

Today it’s 1% savings account yields, 5% mortgages, 3% bond yields and 9% inflation.

The last time inflation was this high it basically took two recessions in short order to slow the rapid rate of change in prices.

Solid breakout for ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK), we might see the bullish momentum continue for a while.

I have been accumulating longs on this for quite a while, might add on a little more. ????

2 possible ways it could play out for the NASDAQ 100 (US100), but currently it looks more likely to head up to test the top of the trend channel.

There will be another major rate hike in about a week’s time, so be wary of volatile price moves as we get nearer.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-new-bull-market-cant-start-until-investors-give-up-11658482203

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-stock-market-is-on-sale-that-doesnt-make-it-cheap-11658388069

Crypto Market Highlights

Can consider taking a small position on Ethereum (ETHUSD) to ride the rebound, with a tight SL around $1250.

Ethereum (ETHUSD) is now above $1500, congrats to all those who took this trade! ????

Taking profits from my recent Ethereum (ETHUSD) long positions. ????

Tricky situation for Ethereum (ETHUSD) because after the breakout to new highs there wasn’t very strong follow-through, so I decided to take my profits and wait on the sideline till I get a better setup.

Good luck, and may next week bring more excellent profits!

Weekly Market Wrap: Easy Profits from Swing Trading Crypto

https://www.wsj.com/articles/parity-is-unlikely-to-be-the-bottom-for-the-euro-11657810219

Last week, the market continued to whipsaw, but for short-term traders, this provided many good swing trades on markets such as stocks, crypto, commodities, etc.

Most of my portfolio is still held in cash, because I do not want to risk my capital in such volatile markets, but using just a small percent of my portfolio to swing trade is enough to generate $10-20k of monthly profits as some side income while waiting for the markets to stabilise.

The next major thing to look out for is the upcoming rate hike, with an expected 100 basis points, so we will need to see how the markets react to that.

Strangely, the prices of commodities have already started to come down, so that might help tame inflation.

Stay tuned in our “Daily Trading Signals” Telegram channel for more daily profit opportunities!

[Photo: Sapa, Vietnam – See my full travel photo log!]

For our weekly market wrap, we go through some of the trade calls and analysis from last week, which gives us valuable insights for the week ahead.

We cover 3 main markets with a total of 200+ counters, so we will never run out of trading opportunities:

Forex, CFDs, commodities, bonds
US stocks, ETFs, global stock indices
Cryptocurrencies, crypto indices

By covering a broad range of markets, we can focus our attention (and capital) on whichever market currently gives the best returns.

Portfolio Highlights

Portfolio updates

Forex & Commodities Market Highlights

Following up on the Commodity ETF (GCC), it has formed a bear flag, and looks ready to continue plunging.

Will be adding on my short positions! ????

Eurozone’s reliance on Russian gas and a closer examination of bond markets suggest there is little immediate upside for the single currency

Inflation Rose Over 9% Over the Last Year (Source: Crossing Wall Street)

Global inflation rates table

Stock & Bond Market Highlights

Now that the short positions we took on crypto are already in the money, today I decided to take a small short position on the S&P 500 (US500) and NASDAQ (US100) as well.

Let’s see how this swing trade goes! ??

The stock markets (US100, US500) look pretty choppy, will be taking profits on my short positions for now.

Crypto Market Highlights

Taking profits from my Bitcoin (BTCUSD) trade over the weekend! ????

Taking profits from my Ethereum (ETHUSD) trade over the weekend! ????

Mystery trade ?

Decided to take a small short position on Ethereum (ETHUSD) and Bitcoin (BTCUSD), let’s see how it turns out! ??

Have had 4 excellent swing trades on Ethereum (ETHUSD) in recent times, since the market is rather choppy.

Now, I’m net long on crypto and waiting to see if it can breakout of that range.

OpenSea, one of the largest marketplaces for NFTs (nonfungible tokens), said Thursday it would cut a fifth of its staff as the crash in cryptocurrency prices continued to wreak havoc on digital-asset firms.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/nft-marketplace-opensea-to-lay-off-20-of-employees-11657830342

Good luck, and may next week bring more excellent profits!

Weekly Market Wrap: Best Swing Trading Opportunities in Volatile Market!

https://www.wsj.com/articles/falling-commodity-prices-raise-hopes-that-inflation-has-peaked-11656811949

With the recent market volatility, swing trading tactics are especially useful, allowing traders to make a killing by flipping between long and short positions every few days to maximise profits.

Hence, I have been updating my portfolio allocations and trading positions to my subscribers almost daily, because time is of the essence.

Since the market direction is not clear, instead of going in big in either direction, it makes more sense to stay nimble and take small positions on either side to chalk up small wins.

Over time, many small wins can add up to large profits!

Stay tuned for more daily trading opportunities in my “Daily Trading Signals” Telegram channel!

[Photo: Grand Canyon, 4D3N Rim-to-Rim Hike, Arizona, USA – See my full travel photo log!]

For our weekly market wrap, we go through some of the trade calls and analysis from last week, which gives us valuable insights for the week ahead.

We cover 3 main markets with a total of 200+ counters, so we will never run out of trading opportunities:

Forex, CFDs, commodities, bonds
US stocks, ETFs, global stock indices
Cryptocurrencies, crypto indices

By covering a broad range of markets, we can focus our attention (and capital) on whichever market currently gives the best returns.

Portfolio Highlights

Some quick portfolio updates

Forex & Commodities Market Highlights

USD continues to be the strongest

Following up on EURCAD, it has dropped almost 1000 pips since our last trade call! ????

Following up on EURUSD, it has hit TP1, and is on track to hit TP2, although there might be some strong support at 1.000.

Can the EUR really drop below the USD? Last time that happened was almost 20 years ago.

Following up on USDSGD, after hitting the first TP, it has broke new highs and looks ready to head to TP2! ????

Stock & Bond Market Highlights

The US bond market is on pace for its worst year in history with a loss of 10.4%.

Remember how I have been saying that I have started accumulating high growth stocks?

Both the ARK Genomic Revolution ETF (ARKG) and ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) have gone up about 30% in the last month! ????

Following up on the NASDAQ 100 (US100) and S&P 500 (US500), the short-term price action is also bullish, so I have closed my short positions and taken profits to wait for a better price to short.

Crypto Market Highlights

Crypto seems to be having a small rebound, so I’m closing my shorts and taking profits on Bitcoin (BTCUSD) and Ethereum (ETHUSD) for now. ????

Will continue to monitor for new trading opportunities.

Following up on Ethereum (ETHUSD), prices have gone up about 10% since I closed my shorts.

If you look at the 2 strong white bars, it shows the short-term price action is bullish so you should either be flat or long.

In the medium-term, the trend is still down, unless prices are able to break above 1280.

Similar to ETH, this is where I flipped short and long on Bitcoin (BTCUSD) in the past 1-2 weeks using price action.

I normally prefer not to do such short-term trades but the market is choppy so we have to adopt a fast-in fast-out strategy.

Good luck, and may next week bring more excellent profits!

Weekly Market Wrap: Profits from Shorting Stocks & Crypto!

https://www.wsj.com/articles/it-was-a-lousy-second-quarterexcept-for-the-u-s-dollar-11656667800

With markets in turmoil, I am currently short on stocks, crypto, commodities (not shown yet, but in the latest updates), which means I effectively have a leveraged cash position.

In addition, all my cash is held in USD, which has gone up about 4% this year, possibly making it one of the best asset class this year. ?

My current strategy is to continue shorting the market to the bottom, then start accumulating (and eventually going all-in) stocks and crypto to ride the next bull market.

Stay tuned for my real-time portfolio updates in my “Daily Trading Signals” Telegram channel!

[Photo: Cape Town, South Africa – See my full travel photo log!]

For our weekly market wrap, we go through some of the trade calls and analysis from last week, which gives us valuable insights for the week ahead.

We cover 3 main markets with a total of 200+ counters, so we will never run out of trading opportunities:

Forex, CFDs, commodities, bonds
US stocks, ETFs, global stock indices
Cryptocurrencies, crypto indices

By covering a broad range of markets, we can focus our attention (and capital) on whichever market currently gives the best returns.

Portfolio Highlights

Portfolio updates: Mainly just short on stocks, crypto and real estate for now.

This is why the USD is my largest portfolio position. ?

Forex & Commodities Market Highlights

Oil is up again, pushing up the 2 oil-linked currencies.

Daily Chart of NZDCHF

Nearing support, good place to take profits! ????

USDSGD Crossing 1.39710
US Dollar vs. Singapore Dollar
TP1 for long positions

Update on Commodity ETF (GCC)

As predicted in my last analysis, it might have hit the top of the long-term cycle, and has started to come down.

On the daily chart, it has broken down from a consolidation pattern.

This is in line with the bonds > stocks > commodities cycle, and we have already seen bonds and stocks decline.

With the Fed aggressively raising interest rates to fight inflation, this should be bearish for commodities.

Stock & Bond Market Highlights

2801 Crossing 24.06
China Stocks ETF
Breaking out of ascending triangle!

SL: 21.80
TP: 27.52

3067 Crossing 10.320
Hang Seng Tech ETF
Breaking out of ascending triangle!

SL: 9.165
TP: 12.065

Markets Head Toward Worst First Half of a Year in Decades

Investors gird for more volatility; almost everything—from stocks to bonds and crypto—falls to start 2022

https://www.wsj.com/articles/markets-head-toward-worst-start-to-a-year-in-decades-11656551051

Daily Chart of NASDAQ (US100)

Looks like the stock market is ready for the next leg down.

Update on NASDAQ (US100)

Since we shorted near the top as well, there also isn’t much for us to do except wait patiently for the profits to grow. ????

Crypto Market Highlights

“There are companies that are basically too far gone and it’s not practical to backstop them.”

https://www.forbes.com/sites/stevenehrlich/2022/06/28/bankman-fried-some-crypto-exchanges-already-secretly-insolvent/?sh=1578e1b747f7

More hedge funds are betting against tether as crypto melts down

https://www.wsj.com/articles/more-hedge-funds-are-betting-against-tether-as-crypto-melts-down-11656322200

Looking at the recent price action in Bitcoin (BTCUSD) and Ethereum (ETHUSD), I have decided to take profits on my short-term trading long positions, since it has gone up 20-40% from the lows.

I have taken a small short position instead.

Daily Chart of Ethereum (ETHUSD)

Note how low the volume is during this bullish rebound, and the new high volume coming in at the end.

Update on Ethereum (ETHUSD)

Since we shorted near the top, and it has moved about 15% in our favour, there isn’t much for us to do except wait patiently for the profits to grow. ????

Good luck, and may next week bring more excellent profits!