Blog: Market Analysis

https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2022/12/fomc-preview-50bp-hike-increase.html

Last week, it was an eventful week filled with exciting news release, such as the CPI (Consumer Price Index) and the FOMC rate announcements.

The CPI showed a lower than expected rate of inflation, so the markets rallied, but it turned out to be a false breakout as prices closed back down by the end of the day.

The next day, the FOMC announced rate hikes in line with expectations, but showed no signs of pivoting any time soon, so the bear market resumed (as we predicted), and prices started heading south.

There is a good chance of prices hitting new lows before the end of the year, so I will gradually accumulate more shorts as my profits (buffer) increase.

If you missed out on the excellent shorting opportunity last week, fear not, because there will be more pullback opportunities to short soon.

Join us for real-time updates and daily trading opportunities in our “Daily Trading Signals” Telegram channel!

[Photo: Iskanderkul Lake & Waterfall, Tajikistan – See my full travel photo log!]

For our weekly market wrap, we go through some of the trade calls and analysis from last week, which gives us valuable insights for the week ahead.

We cover 3 main markets with a total of 200+ counters, so we will never run out of trading opportunities:

Forex, CFDs, commodities, bonds
US stocks, ETFs, global stock indices
Cryptocurrencies, crypto indices

By covering a broad range of markets, we can focus our attention (and capital) on whichever market currently gives the best returns.

Click here to receive all these signals in real-time for only $67 a month! You will get several signals a day, and even taking just 1 trade the whole month can easily cover the fee, so what are you waiting for?

Weekly Market Outlook Video

Weekly Market Outlook (11 December 2022)

2 major pieces of news this week:
13 Dec – CPI data
14 Dec – FOMC

Stock market indices are at crucial points, so I have placed price triggers so that we will know the moment any breakout occurs.

Portfolio Highlights

Weekly Portfolio Updates (11 December 2022)

With unclear direction on the stock market, the best strategy now is to hold bonds for high yields.

Forex & Commodities Market Highlights

NZDCHF is forming a tight consolidation above the support level, can consider going long with a tight stop below the support level.

Following up on CHFJPY, it has gone up +399 pips profit since we made the call. Congrats to those who went long! 💰🔥💪🏻

Now, we will continue to hold and see if it can break out of the huge bull flag and make new highs.

Exactly as predicted for EURAUD, congrats to those who went long! 💰🔥💪🏻

Following up on EURCAD, it is up +673 pips profit since our call! Congrats to those who went long! 💰🔥💪🏻

Strong rebound on USDSGD as predicted, congrats to those who traded the bounce! 💰🔥💪🏻

Stock & Bond Market Highlights

A market poll we did last week, and it seems almost 1/2 thought that the market will make new highs, while about 1/3 thought the market would make new lows.

After a false breakout a few days ago on the CPI data, all the 3 US stock indices (Dow Jones US30, Nasdaq 100 US100, S&P 500 US500) are now resuming the downtrend.

I have added more short positions. Will we see new lows before the year is over?

CPI with economist forecasts

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/14/fed-rate-decision-december-2022.html

US Stocks vs Bonds Returns 1926-2022

Crypto Market Highlights

US prosecutors consider filing criminal charges against Binance and CZ for possible money laundering and sanction violations

Those with money in Binance, might want to start moving it out just in case:

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-justice-dept-is-split-over-charging-binance-crypto-world-falters-sources-2022-12-12/

Click here to receive all these signals in real-time for only $67 a month! You will get several signals a day, and even taking just 1 trade the whole month can easily cover the fee, so what are you waiting for?

Good luck, and may next week bring more excellent profits!

Spencer is an avid globetrotter who achieved financial freedom in his 20s, while trading & teaching across 70+ countries. As a former professional trader in private equity and proprietary funds, he has over 15 years of market experience, and has been featured on more than 20 occasions in the media.

Weekly Market Wrap: All Eyes on CPI & FOMC Next Week!

https://www.wsj.com/articles/dow-shines-as-higher-rates-squeeze-nasdaqs-tech-stocks-11670099206

Last week, we anticipated that there would not be much action in the markets since the big news (CPI, FOMC) would only be happening this week.

That turned out to be true.

We also indicated that the best trading opportunities for last week were: Gold, Bonds (TLT), and possible USD rebound.

That turned out to be true as well, allowing us to make some quick profits.

We also found some excellent forex trades along the way, to add to the profit pile.

This week, we are expecting more exciting opportunities, and possibly a clearer trend direction, which will allow us to take larger trading positions for the medium/long-term.

Come join us in the “Daily Trading Signals” private Telegram channel for real-time signals and trading opportunities!

[Photo: Samarkand, Uzbekistan – See my full travel photo log!]

For our weekly market wrap, we go through some of the trade calls and analysis from last week, which gives us valuable insights for the week ahead.

We cover 3 main markets with a total of 200+ counters, so we will never run out of trading opportunities:

Forex, CFDs, commodities, bonds
US stocks, ETFs, global stock indices
Cryptocurrencies, crypto indices

By covering a broad range of markets, we can focus our attention (and capital) on whichever market currently gives the best returns.

Click here to receive all these signals in real-time for only $67 a month! You will get several signals a day, and even taking just 1 trade the whole month can easily cover the fee, so what are you waiting for?

Weekly Market Outlook Video

Weekly Market Outlook (04 December 2022)

Not much news this week, with all the big news next week.

Fed has signalled a slowing of rate hikes, which has been priced in last week,

But can markets really turn bullish while rates are still increasing (and kept at such high levels) for one more year?

Best trades this week are: Gold, Bonds (TLT), and possible USD rebound.

Additional point regarding divergence of US stock indices: for a bullish trend reversal to work, all 3 indices need to turn bullish, not just 1 or 2.

Portfolio Highlights

Weekly Portfolio Updates (04 December 2022)

Took some small short positions on stocks after the last week’s bullish run up.

If the Fed makes some bearish comments, the rebound might be short-lived.

Forex & Commodities Market Highlights

Currency strength comparison

Following up on the EURCAD, it is up 481 pips profit since our call, congrats to those who went long! ????

Following up on the short trade on USDJPY, it has hit the profit target at the support level! ????

The RSI is now in the oversold region, so it is likely to have some rebound.

Looks like a giant rising wedge breakdown for AUDJPY, and if prices stay below the 200-EMA, it is an additional sign of bearishness.

Good chance that it will continue falling to the next support level.

Confluence of support for CHFJPY, at the previous resistance-turned-support level, and the channel line of the trend channel.

Major trend is still bullish, so this is a potential larger pullback again the major trend.

Following up on Gold (XAUUSD), it has rebounded off the support zone as predicted, and is now hovering slightly above all 3 EMAs.

If it can hold above that, and form a small consolidation zone, prices have a good chance of heading higher.

Stock & Bond Market Highlights

Following up on the 20-yr Bond ETF (TLT), the price recently crossed above the 20 & 50 EMAs.

If prices can stay above those 2 EMAs, and build a small base, it has a good chance of breaking higher.

We need to wait for a consolidation or pullback before entering because prices are now a bit overbought (refer to RSI).

The Dow is beating the broader market to a degree not seen in nearly a century.

With the Fed set to keep raising rates into next year, investors and strategists say the Dow could continue to lead the market.

This is the final monthly employment report before the Fed’s two-day meeting on Dec. 13 and 14, in which the central bank is expected to raise its fed funds target rate by a half percentage point. A 50 basis point increase would mark a slowing from the prior 75 basis point rate hikes set by the central bank.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/01/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html

https://www.wsj.com/articles/must-inflation-be-brought-down-all-the-way-to-2-11670162817

Click here to receive all these signals in real-time for only $67 a month! You will get several signals a day, and even taking just 1 trade the whole month can easily cover the fee, so what are you waiting for?

Good luck, and may next week bring more excellent profits!

Weekly Market Wrap: Will the Fed Pivot Cause a Market Reversal?

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/01/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html

Last week, the Fed mentioned that they will be slowing down the interest rate hikes, and the market reacted positively to this news.

This was a bit different from what I was expecting, but the rule of trading is to go with the flow of the market and trade according, which means that if my positions are on the wrong side, I am ready to close them and switch sides.

As I mentioned in last week’s video, in such choppy markets, we should not be taking large positions, instead we should be saving most of our ammunition for when the trend becomes clear.

If the Fed decides to slow the rate hikes, this could hint that the market has already bottomed, but on the other hand, even keeping rates at current elevated levels for a year could trigger a recession, so which is the more likely outcome for the stock market?

I will be covering that in this week’s market outlook video, as well as the direction for all major asset classes.

Stay tuned, and see you in our Daily Trading Signals private Telegram channel!

[Photo: Antalya, Turkey – See my full travel photo log!]

For our weekly market wrap, we go through some of the trade calls and analysis from last week, which gives us valuable insights for the week ahead.

We cover 3 main markets with a total of 200+ counters, so we will never run out of trading opportunities:

Forex, CFDs, commodities, bonds
US stocks, ETFs, global stock indices
Cryptocurrencies, crypto indices

By covering a broad range of markets, we can focus our attention (and capital) on whichever market currently gives the best returns.

Click here to receive all these signals in real-time for only $67 a month! You will get several signals a day, and even taking just 1 trade the whole month can easily cover the fee, so what are you waiting for?

Weekly Market Outlook Video

Weekly Market Outlook (27 November 2022)

NFP is this Friday, so all eyes on this data. Strong jobs might actually be bad for the market.

Unrest in China is another bearish factor for global markets.

Either stay flat, or take small short positions.

Portfolio Highlights

Weekly Portfolio Updates (27 November 2022)

Added more US T-bills to my portfolio, since the markets are quite flat, and yields are above 4.5%.

Forex & Commodities Market Highlights

Following up on the EURCAD, if there is follow-through on today’s strong white bar, there is a good chance of prices continuing higher.

AUDJPY Crossing 91.797
Euro vs Japanese Yen
Break swing low

EURAUD Crossing 1.55769
Break swing highs!

Stock & Bond Market Highlights

The NASDAQ 100 (US100) still hovering at resistance, but get ready to short once it breaks the red level.

Finally the action is starting on the NASDAQ 100 (US100), after breaking back into the range.

Added on more short positions, but still not going all-in yet because of NFP this Friday.

https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2022/11/the-sp-500-is-not-the-economy/

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/30/fed-chair-jerome-powell-says-smaller-rate-hikes-could-come-in-december.html

Crypto Market Highlights

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) still looking bearish, with prices forming a small bear flag after breaking new lows.

Click here to receive all these signals in real-time for only $67 a month! You will get several signals a day, and even taking just 1 trade the whole month can easily cover the fee, so what are you waiting for?

Good luck, and may next week bring more excellent profits!

Weekly Market Wrap: All Quiet on the Western Front…

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/history-says-inflation-could-persist-for-a-decade-11668642697

Last week, the markets were pretty quiet, after the sharp rebound in the previous weeks.

It seems like the rebound has run out of steam, and there is no major news to influence the direction of the market either way.

The direction might only be clearer after the next major news announcement (NFP, CPI, FOMC), so it is best not to take any large bets in the meantime.

That said, on the forex and crypto front, there were many good swing trading opportunities.

There is a good chance that price might break out next week, so I have placed price triggers to alert me (and all my subscribers) the moment any breakout happens.

Stay tuned in our Daily Trading Signals private Telegram channel!

[Photo: Cappadocia, Turkey – See my full travel photo log!]

For our weekly market wrap, we go through some of the trade calls and analysis from last week, which gives us valuable insights for the week ahead.

We cover 3 main markets with a total of 200+ counters, so we will never run out of trading opportunities:

Forex, CFDs, commodities, bonds
US stocks, ETFs, global stock indices
Cryptocurrencies, crypto indices

By covering a broad range of markets, we can focus our attention (and capital) on whichever market currently gives the best returns.

Click here to receive all these signals in real-time for only $67 a month! You will get several signals a day, and even taking just 1 trade the whole month can easily cover the fee, so what are you waiting for?

Weekly Market Outlook Video

Weekly Market Outlook (20 November 2022)

Best trades this week are shorting crypto and going long on USD rebound.

Stocks have been flat almost 2 weeks, so I have placed price alerts for when it breaks out of either side.

Portfolio Highlights

Weekly Portfolio Updates (20 November 2022)

Bought some long-term fixed income (TLT), and more short-term fixed income (T-bills).

Forex & Commodities Market Highlights

Following up on EURCAD, there was a perfect long pullback opportunity as we mentioned, and prices have started heading up.

Will continue to add longs on any pullback, or pullbacks on a smaller timeframe.

Very strong price action for NZDUSD, after breaking out of the bearish price channel.

If it can break and stay above the 200-EMA, good chances of prices making new highs.

With the USD weakening, we see a nice bear flag forming on the USDJPY, which will likely take prices lower to the next major support level, which coincides with the 200-EMA.

Gold (XAUUSD) rebounding off strong support, with 2 major resistance levels ahead that can serve as targets.

Stock & Bond Market Highlights

Following up on the NASDAQ 100 (US100), it is forming a small bull flag.

Currently, the price action looks bullish, so I would either stay out or take a short-term long position.

If it breaks below the price alert set at 11500, then I will look to short.

S&P500: Morgan Stanley YE 2023 Price Targets

Once inflation breaks above 8%, they find, “reverting to 3% usually takes 6 to 20 years, with a median of over 10 years.”

Only 30% of the time in the past 52 years has inflation peaked between 8% and 10% and then gone back down. In the other 70% of the time, once it’s made it over 8% it had risen above 10%.

Good luck, and may next week bring more excellent profits!

Weekly Market Wrap: Is the Market Rebound Running out of Steam?

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/14/amazon-reportedly-plans-to-lay-off-about-10000-employees-starting-this-week.html

While we saw some strong rebound in the markets due to lower inflation numbers (and hope of a pivot), I feel it is only a matter of time before the relief rally runs out of steam.

The recent news headlines do not seem bullish:

UK officially entering a recession
Japan seeing the highest inflation in 40 years
Many tech companies laying off large numbers of staff
US retail sales higher than expected (sign of inflation not coming down)
US initial jobless claims decreasing

Hence, the chance of a Fed pivot seems unlikely at this point.

However, the market is always right, so I will still trade based on the price action as it unfolds.

I have placed price triggers at various critical levels, so we will receive the alerts once the opportunity arises.

Join us in our Daily Trading Signals Telegram channel to receive these real-time alerts!

[Photo: Chong-Kemin Valley, Kyrgyzstan – See my full travel photo log!]

For our weekly market wrap, we go through some of the trade calls and analysis from last week, which gives us valuable insights for the week ahead.

We cover 3 main markets with a total of 200+ counters, so we will never run out of trading opportunities:

Forex, CFDs, commodities, bonds
US stocks, ETFs, global stock indices
Cryptocurrencies, crypto indices

By covering a broad range of markets, we can focus our attention (and capital) on whichever market currently gives the best returns.

Click here to receive all these signals in real-time for only $67 a month! You will get several signals a day, and even taking just 1 trade the whole month can easily cover the fee, so what are you waiting for?

Weekly Market Outlook Video

Weekly Market Outlook (13 November 2022)

After the CPI showed slowing inflation, the stock markets shot up drastically, but this does not necessarily mean a reversal of the long-term trend.

2 ways to trade this market:

1. Wait for short-term momentum to weaken and run into strong S/R levels, then enter in the direction of the LT trend

2. Ride the short/medium-term momentum by entering on pullbacks on smaller timeframe

Portfolio Highlights

Weekly Portfolio Update (13 November 2022)

Not much changes.

Forex & Commodities Market Highlights

Very nice inverse H&S reversal for EURCAD, plus it broke the bear trendline at the same time.

Can look to go long on pullbacks.

USDSGD has dropped quite steeply the past few weeks, and might be somewhat oversold.

Even though it is in the middle of the wider range, and might drop all the way to the bottom of the range, we can still aim to trade the rebound (red rectangle), and then use a trailing stoploss.

Following up on USDSGD, we have seen 4 doji bars (with 1 being a bullish hammer), which suggest a slowing in the bearish momentum.

The RSI is also in the extreme oversold zone.

Odds of a rebound are high.

I would suggest taking a long position with a SL at around 1.36.

Stock & Bond Market Highlights

Critical zone here for the NASDAQ 100 (US100), whether it can muster enough strength for a larger move up, and break past the trendline.

To better illustrate what I meant by following the long-term trend, this is the weekly chart of the NASDAQ 100 (US100).

You can see that when prices go up or down, there will be moves against the main trend (red circles) that range from 15-25%.

The key is to wait patiently and find the optimal point (most reward and lowest risk) to enter the market and ride the long-term trend.

So far we have seen one shooting star (bearish pinbar) on the NASDAQ 100 (US100), when it tried to break above the trendline.

Now, it is at a crucial point because it is at the top of the LT bearish trendline, but the ST price action recently just broke above the small consolidation (yellow rectangle).

If prices fall back into the small consolidation (break the red line), then i would consider adding back my short positions.

Similar situation for the Global REITs ETF (REET) which is a benchmark for global real estate.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-inflation-cooldown-is-finally-here-11668097915

Crypto Market Highlights

https://www.coindesk.com/business/2022/11/12/ftx-crypto-wallets-see-mysterious-late-night-outflows-totalling-more-than-380m

Click here to receive all these signals in real-time for only $67 a month! You will get several signals a day, and even taking just 1 trade the whole month can easily cover the fee, so what are you waiting for?

Good luck, and may next week bring more excellent profits!