Blog: Market Analysis

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Market Recap & Upcoming Week

Last week, the stock market’s momentum continued, with the S&P 500 reaching a new record high, underscoring a strong start to 2024 with a 24% gain since October.

This rally, fueled by the anticipation of Federal Reserve rate cuts and a resilient economy, is noteworthy for its breadth and the substantial role of consumer spending.

Despite concerns over concentrated leadership, particularly in tech sectors buoyed by AI enthusiasm, and the potential for market volatility, the underlying strength in earnings and economic fundamentals suggests the bull market has room to grow.

This week, anticipation builds for the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index release on Thursday, a critical indicator for both the Federal Reserve and market participants monitoring inflation trends.

The Fed’s assessment of this data, along with subsequent remarks from several of its officials, will be keenly observed for insights into future monetary policy directions amidst ongoing economic evaluations.

Furthermore, an array of corporate earnings reports is on the horizon, with notable companies across various sectors, including Workday, Lowe’s, Salesforce, Paramount Global, Anheuser-Busch InBev, and Dell Technologies, poised to share their quarterly performance.

Additionally, forthcoming updates on the housing market and consumer confidence will offer further clues on the economic landscape, potentially impacting investor sentiment and market movements.

Daily Trading Signals (Highlights)

Ethereum (ETHUSD) – Finally managed to break the $3000 level! 🚀🚀🚀

Using a rough projection, will consider taking some profits at $3200.

Great call on ETH, i have been buying with you since around $2000 as well. Do you think this cycle it can surpass the previous price high?

Nvidia (NVDA) – Strong gap up on great earnings, getting very close to our first target of $850! 💪

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Spencer is an avid globetrotter who achieved financial freedom in his 20s, while trading & teaching across 70+ countries. As a former professional trader in private equity and proprietary funds, he has over 15 years of market experience, and has been featured on more than 20 occasions in the media.

Weekly Market Wrap: Rates Remain High But Stocks Remain Bullish?

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Market Recap & Upcoming Week

Last week’s economic updates presented a mixed picture, with January’s CPI and PPI data coming in higher than expected, causing concern among investors.

Despite this, the overall trend still points towards a favorable direction for inflation, with headline CPI at 3.1% year-over-year, slightly above forecasts but lower than the previous month.

Core inflation remained sticky at 3.9%. On the other hand, PPI inflation showed a year-over-year increase, suggesting that while producer prices are above expectations, they’ve decreased from the highs of 2022.

The data suggests inflation is moderating, albeit with complexities such as the significant role of shelter and rent in CPI figures.

Amid these inflation trends, the market’s expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts have been adjusted, now anticipating fewer cuts starting possibly in June.

This adjustment aligns more closely with the Fed’s cautious approach, waiting for clearer signs of sustained inflation reduction.

Despite initial market reactions to the inflation reports, there’s a sense of stability as the focus shifts to the upcoming PCE inflation data, the Fed’s preferred inflation metric.

This data, along with the ongoing strength in the labor market and consumer spending, albeit with some signs of slowing, will be crucial in shaping the Fed’s policy direction in the coming months.

This week promises significant developments for investors and policy watchers, starting with a pause on Monday due to the Presidents Day holiday.

Post-holiday, the financial landscape buzzes with anticipation for a series of earnings reports from major companies such as Nvidia, Walmart, Home Depot, and Palo Alto Networks, alongside Intel’s inaugural conference highlighting its foundry business expansions.

These events are poised to offer fresh insights into corporate health and industry trends, potentially influencing market directions.

Adding to the week’s importance, the Federal Reserve is set to release the minutes from its January policy meeting, a move eagerly awaited for clues on future interest rate decisions.

This disclosure, along with speeches from Fed officials, will shed light on the central bank’s current economic assessments and monetary policy outlook.

Furthermore, the government’s discussions on new student loan repayment schemes are on the agenda, potentially impacting broader economic perspectives and consumer sentiment.

Daily Trading Signals (Highlights)

Coinbase (COIN) – After correcting almost 40% in the last few weeks, prices have reach a major support level.

Seems like a good low risk entry opportunity with a stoploss around $110, and first target around the previous high.

Coinbase (COIN) – Wow this is one of our best trades this year, in just 7 trading days, we made 50% returns!

Congrats to everyone who took this trade with us! 👏🔥💰

Ethereum (ETHUSD) – Wow just broke new highs, very strong bullish momentum now.

Congrats to everyone who has been holding with us since $2000+! 💰🔥👍

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Weekly Market Wrap: Markets are Optimistic, but Inflation Still a Concern

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Market Recap & Upcoming Week

Last week marked a significant milestone with the S&P 500 crossing the 5,000 threshold, signaling a robust market despite recent economic uncertainties.

This achievement reflects a market that has shown remarkable resilience and strength, moving beyond the recession fears that dominated headlines a year ago.

The surge in interest for “Taylor Swift” over “recession” in financial search trends illustrates a shift in public focus, underscoring a more optimistic growth and inflation outlook.

Despite the Fed’s aggressive rate hikes, the consumer sector has remained vibrant, supported by strong discretionary spending, although there are emerging signs of consumer fatigue.

The overall economic environment suggests a slowdown but not a downturn, with sectors like housing and manufacturing showing signs of recovery as the Fed prepares to pivot towards rate cuts.

The job market’s robust performance, highlighted by unexpected payroll growth, further supports the narrative of a resilient economy.

This labor market strength, coupled with a decline in consumer credit growth and a normalization in mortgage-delinquency rates, paints a picture of a healthy but cautious consumer backdrop.

This week promises to offer crucial insights into the state of inflation and consumer spending in the U.S. economy.

The spotlight will be on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) release on Tuesday, which could influence Federal Reserve decisions if inflation shows signs of persisting or declining.

Additionally, Thursday’s retail sales data will provide a glimpse into consumer behavior at the start of the year, reflecting on the broader economic health.

The homebuilder confidence index will also be released, offering further indications of the housing market’s momentum amidst ongoing economic shifts.

On the corporate front, a series of earnings reports are anticipated, with market participants keenly awaiting figures from major players such as Coca-Cola Co., Cisco Systems Inc., and Stellantis NV.

These reports could not only shed light on individual company performances but also provide broader insights into various economic sectors.

As these developments unfold, investors and analysts will be closely analyzing the data to gauge the potential impact on market trends and monetary policy decisions.

Daily Trading Signals (Highlights)

Coinbase (COIN) – Following up on this trade, we are currently up +20% profit!

Congrats to those who took this trade with us! 💰🔥💪

Cloudflare (NET) – Following up on this trade call, we are now up over +40% profit!

Congrats to those who took this trade with us! 💰🔥💪

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Weekly Market Wrap: Tech Stocks Continue to Break New Highs!

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Market Recap & Upcoming Week

The past week mirrored a scene from “Braveheart,” with the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) decision to hold rates steady, echoing a strategy of careful timing.

Chair Jerome Powell signaled patience in rate adjustments to ensure inflation is thoroughly subdued before potentially easing rates to prevent a recession.

Markets responded positively, achieving an all-time high, appreciating the stable economy and the prospect of a cautious Fed.

The labor market’s robust performance, with substantial job additions, has given the Fed room to maneuver without immediate rate cuts.

The S&P 500 remained relatively unchanged despite swings, indicating that while the Fed’s policy shift is anticipated to be favorable, the transition may see moments of market turbulence.

Upcoming employment reports and tech earnings will be closely monitored for further economic insights.

Investors will be tuned in to speeches from over half a dozen Federal Reserve officials this week, seeking clarity on the central bank’s future monetary policy following the Fed’s recent rate decision.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is also slated to discuss U.S. financial stability before Congress, adding to the week’s financial discourse.

The earnings season rolls on, with an array of companies across various sectors like consumer goods, healthcare, and energy sharing their quarterly results.

Key reports from Unilever, McDonald’s, PepsiCo, Ford, and Honda will offer a glimpse into consumer spending and the automotive sector’s health.

Pharmaceutical giants Eli Lilly, Amgen, and AstraZeneca, alongside oil firms ConocoPhillips and BP, will also disclose their financials.

Economic data will be lighter but still informative, with the Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey shedding light on banking conditions, while the end of the week brings potential revisions to CPI data following an annual update.

Daily Trading Signals (Highlights)

Jan 26 2024: NASDAQ 100 E-min Futures (NQ1!) – We might see some pullback in the next few days which will give us a good chance to buy the dip and get in at better prices.

01 Feb 2024: NASDAQ 100 E-min Futures (NQ1!) – Price correction happening exactly as predicted. 💰🔥💪🏻

03 Feb 2024: NASDAQ 100 E-min Futures (NQ1!) – Price correction and uptrend resumption happened exactly as predicted! 💰🔥💪🏻

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Weekly Market Wrap: Big Tech Earnings Season Starts!

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Market Recap & Upcoming Week

The U.S. economy showed robust signs of strength last week, with the S&P PMI exceeding expectations, signaling potential stabilization in the manufacturing sector.

Services PMI also indicated continued economic vigor, especially in consumer-driven sectors. U.S. GDP growth for the fourth quarter surpassed predictions, hinting at enduring resilience in consumption despite higher interest rates.

However, some moderation is expected ahead, maintaining a soft-landing scenario.

Inflation trends also support a favorable outlook, as core PCE inflation dipped below 3% for the first time since 2021, strengthening the “Goldilocks” narrative of cooling inflation with sustained growth.

All eyes are now on the Fed’s upcoming meeting, where rates are expected to hold, but future cuts are likely, with market expectations aligning with the Fed’s cautious approach to returning to neutral rates.

Historically, markets have fared well when the Fed begins cutting rates in a non-recessionary period, suggesting potential for positive market performance ahead.

Investors are bracing for a critical week as the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision looms, with all eyes on Fed Chair Jerome Powell for potential signals regarding future rate adjustments.

Alongside the Fed’s announcement, the job market comes under the spotlight with forthcoming data on job openings, private payroll figures, and the comprehensive monthly employment report, offering insights into the labor market’s robustness.

The earnings season hits a peak with several industry behemoths set to unveil their financial performance.

Tech leaders like Microsoft, Alphabet, Apple, Amazon, and Meta are queued up throughout the week, providing a snapshot of the tech industry’s health.

Additionally, pharmaceutical majors Pfizer, Merck, and Novo Nordisk will reveal their earnings, as will energy giants ExxonMobil and Chevron, promising a week rich in financial disclosures and market-moving news.

Daily Trading Signals (Highlights)

Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR) – Just broke out to new all-time highs, after a nice accumulation pattern on the weekly chart. Accumulating more of this. 💰🔥👍

Nvidia (NVDA) – Following up on our previous trade call, prices have hit our first target of $600! 💰🔥👍

Zooming out on the weekly chart, we see that the trend is still very strong, and a possible optimistic target is close to $850, which means we can look to enter on any pullbacks or consolidation.

e.l.f. Beauty (ELF) – Strong breakout on the weekly chart to new ATHs.

On the daily chart, we saw a selldown on huge volume, but prices got pushed back up, suggesting that there are also a lot of buyers.

Can consider taking a long position with a tight stop below the pinbar (around $140), and target around $190.

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