The upcoming week will see the beginning of the earnings season, with reports from major banks and financial institutions, including JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, BlackRock, and PNC Financial Services. Earnings for S&P 500 companies are projected to fall by 6.6%, marking the largest quarterly decline since Q2 2020.

The Federal Reserve will release meeting minutes from its most recent policy meeting on Wednesday, and markets will be watching closely on the tone and words used, to provide guidance for future rate policy direction.

Inflation reports for March will be released, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) scheduled for Wednesday and the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Thursday. Prices are projected to have risen by 0.3% in March, while year-over-year CPI is expected to be up just over 5%. The PPI is anticipated to remain unchanged from last month, with an annual increase of 3.1%.

The U.S. Census Bureau will report on March retail sales on Friday, providing a key update on consumer spending. Sales are projected to have fallen by 0.4% last month and are expected to rise 4% to 6% this year.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank Spring 2023 annual meetings will begin on Monday in Washington D.C. These events will gather global leaders to discuss issues such as the world economic outlook, poverty eradication, economic development, and aid effectiveness.

 

[Photo: Zion National Park, USA – See my full travel photo log!]

 

For our weekly market wrap, we go through some of the trade calls and analysis from last week, which gives us valuable insights for the week ahead.

We cover 3 main markets with a total of 200+ counters, so we will never run out of trading opportunities:

• Forex, CFDs, commodities, bonds
• US stocks, ETFs, global stock indices
• Cryptocurrencies, crypto indices

By covering a broad range of markets, we can focus our attention (and capital) on whichever market currently gives the best returns.

Click here to receive all these signals in real-time for only $67 a month! You will get several signals a day, and even taking just 1 trade the whole month can easily cover the fee, so what are you waiting for?

 

Weekly Market Outlook Video

Weekly Market Outlook (02 April 2023)

📌 Markets seem to be expecting Fed cutting rates in Q3 this year (4 months time)
📌 Stock markets are bullish in the short-run
📌 USD is weakening, while Gold & Crypto (ETH breakout) is gaining strength
📌 GPB is bullish while CAD is bearish
📌 Looking to accumulate long-term bonds (TLT) in my portfolio
📌 Bearish on Crude Oil and Commodities

 

Portfolio Highlights

Weekly Portfolio Updates (2 April 2023)

Even though stocks rallied slightly, bonds (TLT) rallied as well, providing a buffer against our short positions.

I also decided to add some commodity (DBC) short positions, since I don’t think this oil rally is sustainable if demand drops.

 

Forex & Commodities Market Highlights

AUDCAD – Finally the TP is hit, giving a whooping profit of 350+ pips! Congrats to all who took the trade! 💰🔥💪🏻

 

AUDNZD – Breaking down from range, in line with the downtrend. Probably heading to test prior lows.

 

CADCHF – Following up on this, it is the 2nd time pricing are testing the neckline.

 

EURCAD – Following up on this, and what I said in the video, the pullback after the breakout is a good low-risk entry.

 

GBPCAD – Great low-risk opportunity for a long trade.

 

Crude Oil (WTICOUSD) – Prices spiked up due to production cuts, but the overall trend is still down.

If prices close back down into the price channel, the downtrend is likely to continue.

I am looking for shorting opportunities on this, and commodity ETFs like DBC.

 

Stock & Bond Market Highlights

NASDAQ 100 (US100) – There might be enough momentum to push it to test the prior swing high, but don’t see much more bullish catalysts for it to break above that.

Also seeing some price divergence on the RSI.

 

3 months relative performance.

 

Top U.S. banks by uninsured deposits.

 

 

 

Crypto Market Highlights

Ethereum (ETHUSD) – Breakout of small ascending triangle, looking to gun for $2000. 🚀

 

 

Click here to receive all these signals in real-time for only $67 a month! You will get several signals a day, and even taking just 1 trade the whole month can easily cover the fee, so what are you waiting for?

 

Last week saw an array of significant events unfold in the global banking and financial sectors, with concerns over Deutsche Bank, rising inflation, and China’s economic recovery dominating headlines.

Deutsche Bank’s shares slid 8% after a sudden spike in default insurance costs raised concerns among investors. While analysts insisted that Deutsche Bank was not the next Credit Suisse, panic spread throughout the markets, leading to a short banking crisis. As a result, $100 billion was pulled from banks, though the overall banking system was deemed sound and resilient.

European leaders scrambled to address the banking crisis and stabilize markets. The upcoming week will feature congressional hearings on SVB (Silicon Valley Bank), which have been affected by the same concerns plaguing Deutsche Bank and Credit Suisse.

The Federal Reserve bumped interest rates up by 25 basis points, marking the first rate hike since the pandemic began. Investors weighed the implications of this decision, as well as ongoing bank troubles, leading to mixed market reactions.

The US dollar and Swiss franc were identified as the weakest major currencies, while the yen rose in value. Investors now await a key inflation report (core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index) this coming week, as concerns about inflation and its impact on monetary policy persist.

A Chinese Communist Party official stated that the foundation of China’s economic recovery was not solid enough, leading to concerns about the country’s stability. In response, Citi labeled China a relative safe haven amid market uncertainty.

Oil prices fell as the US held off on refilling its strategic petroleum reserve, while gold prices gained on the back of the Federal Reserve’s hint at a pause in rate hikes.

For more market updates and real-time trading opportunities, check out our “Daily Trading Signals” Telegram channel!

 

[Photo: Kusadasi, Turkey – See my full travel photo log!]

For our weekly market wrap, we go through some of the trade calls and analysis from last week, which gives us valuable insights for the week ahead.

We cover 3 main markets with a total of 200+ counters, so we will never run out of trading opportunities:

• Forex, CFDs, commodities, bonds
• US stocks, ETFs, global stock indices
• Cryptocurrencies, crypto indices

By covering a broad range of markets, we can focus our attention (and capital) on whichever market currently gives the best returns.

Click here to receive all these signals in real-time for only $67 a month! You will get several signals a day, and even taking just 1 trade the whole month can easily cover the fee, so what are you waiting for?

 

Weekly Market Outlook Video

Weekly Market Outlook (19 March 2023)

📌 FOMC on 22 March (Wed)
📌 80% chance of 25 bp hike
📌 Markets seem to be expecting a quick crash/recession followed by Fed cutting rates in Q3 this year
📌 Looking to accumulate long-term bonds (TLT) in my portfolio

 

Portfolio Highlights

Weekly Portfolio Updates (19 March 2023)

Added some bonds (TLT) and high growth stocks (ARKK) to my portfolio, while adding some shorts to the Dow Jones ETF (DIA).

 

Forex & Commodities Market Highlights

AUDCHF – Prices have rebounded to test the support-turned-resistance level, making it a good chance for a short position.

 

CADCHF – Nice pullback to test the breakout point, providing a good shorting opportunity.

 

NZDCHF – Another potential short after pulling back to test the breakout level.

 

Crude Oil (WTICOUSD) – Looking at the long-term weekly chart, it shows a huge downtrend channel.

Will we really see prices drop to 2020 lows?

Maybe if there is a recession, otherwise it seems unlikely.

 

Stock & Bond Market Highlights

China tech stocks (3067) – Might be forming a possible bullish inverse head-and-shoulders reversal pattern.

Started accumulating some, but will not take large positions until the neckline is cleared.

 

NASDAQ 100 (US100) – Yesterday, after the FOMC, prices broke above the previous swing high, but closed lower by the end of the session.

Direction is not very clear but I am more towards the bearish side.

 

NASDAQ 100 (US100) – It is now 2 days in a row where prices pushed new highs, then closed back down.

From here, prices can either drop back down to test prior lows, or consolidate for a few more bars to accumulate strength to push new highs.

As mentioned before, I am more inclined to the bearish side.

 

Weekly Chart of Credit Suisse (27 years)

 

Current situation and nothing adds up.

 

The “Fed Put” is back with assets on their balance sheet increasing $297 billion over the last week, the largest spike higher since March 2020.

 

Inflation vs. Recession

 

While everyone was distracted by SVB they missed Credit Suisse.

While everyone is distracted by Credit Suisse they’re missing Wells Fargo.

 

1/ With the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank last week, many investors and savers are wondering which banks could be next?

A thread 🧵

— Spencer Li (Synapse Trading) (@SynapseTrading) March 20, 2023

🧵 1/ Summary of the recent FOMC meeting and its implications for the economy.

Will we face a recession? What's the Fed's plan? #fomc #trading #investing

— Spencer Li (Synapse Trading) (@SynapseTrading) March 23, 2023

Crypto Market Highlights

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) and Ethereum (ETHUSD) – Following up on these 2, prices have broken out strongly as predicted!

Congrats to those who took the trade! 💰🔥💪🏻

 

1/ 🧵 Bitcoin's epic comeback: What does the future hold for the world's largest cryptocurrency? And how will the Fed's next move affect its trajectory? Let's dive into this fascinating thread! 🚀 #Bitcoin #FOMC pic.twitter.com/JZWmY0tgwx

— Spencer Li (Synapse Trading) (@SynapseTrading) March 22, 2023

 

Click here to receive all these signals in real-time for only $67 a month! You will get several signals a day, and even taking just 1 trade the whole month can easily cover the fee, so what are you waiting for?