Weekly Market Wrap: NFP Jobs Data Weakening?

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Market Recap & Upcoming Week

The U.S. labor market and inflation rates are showing signs of slowing down, albeit not stagnating, according to the latest data from the Labor Department.

In June’s NFP Jobs report, 209,000 jobs were added to the economy, down from May’s figure of 306,000, and the unemployment rate decreased to 3.6%. This performance exceeded initial expectations set by the Federal Reserve and Wall Street.

In addition, persistent labor demand has led to lowered predictions for the unemployment rate for the end of 2023, particularly in sectors affected by the pandemic.

On the other hand, inflation rates continue to exceed predictions.

The Fed’s Q4 2023 inflation forecast, excluding food and energy, has increased from 3.5% to 3.9%, suggesting possible rate hikes in future meetings. The key question now revolves around whether inflation will slow down faster than the job market, thereby influencing the future trajectory of monetary policy.

If inflation cools off sufficiently, the Fed could stop rate hikes, but if it remains high, additional rate hikes might be necessary to maintain the balance between employment and inflation.

The upcoming week is set to be packed with crucial financial information as earnings season gets underway.

Reports from some of the world’s most prominent financial institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, and BlackRock are eagerly awaited. Additionally, key players from other industries, such as PepsiCo, Delta Air Lines, and UnitedHealth Group, will also be disclosing their earnings reports.

These reports will likely provide insight into the performance and future direction of these companies, as well as offer a sense of the current state of the economy.

Alongside these company reports, crucial economic indicators will be announced.

On Wednesday, the June Consumer Price Index (CPI) is scheduled for release, followed by the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Thursday. Both of these will offer valuable information about the current state of inflation in the economy.

To round out the week, the University of Michigan will release the preliminary reading of its Consumer Sentiment Index (MCSI) for July on Friday. This metric will provide a valuable measure of consumer confidence, giving a timely snapshot of the public’s overall economic sentiment.

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AUDNZD – Prices continuing lower for our short positions, with 200+ pips profit in the money! 💰🔥💪🏻

AUDJPY – Following up from the weekly videos, after hitting our first target, we have now extended our TP to a more ambitious target! 💰🔥💪🏻

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) – Following up, prices are now testing prior swing highs, and there is a good chance of a new breakout soon.

We have adjusted a further price target to reflect more upsize, as we are now in the money. 💰💪🏻🔥

USDJPY – Following up on this long trade, we are now 600+ pips profit in the money! Congrats to those who took this trade! 💰🔥💪🏻

We adjusted the target upwards since the price is so bullish, but it is also a good idea to take some profits first.

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Spencer Li

Spencer is an avid globetrotter who achieved financial freedom in his 20s, while trading & teaching across 70+ countries. As a former professional trader in private equity and proprietary funds, he has over 15 years of market experience, and has been featured on more than 20 occasions in the media.