Market Analysis – Page 50 – Synapse Trading

Weekly Market Wrap: Nuclear Threat Reminiscent of Cuban Missile Crisis

[Photo: Former nuclear missile base in Ukraine – See my full travel photo log!]

For our weekly market wrap, we go through some of the trade calls and analysis from last week, which gives us valuable insights for the week ahead.

We cover 3 main markets with a total of 200+ counters, so we will never run out of trading opportunities:

Forex, CFDs, commodities, bonds
US stocks, ETFs, global stock indices
Cryptocurrencies, crypto indices

By covering a broad range of markets, we can focus our attention (and capital) on whichever market currently gives the best returns.

Forex Market Highlights

In this risk-off mode, people are moving back to safe haven assets.

EURJPY – Congrats to those who took the pullback opportunity to enter the trade, netting a profit of 200+ pips! ????

Can consider taking profits now after such a climatic move.

Product: Forex
Name: British Pound / US Dollar
Ticker: GBPUSD
Exchange: N/A

Analysis: Price coming down after hitting the top of trend channel.

EP: 1.355 to 1.350, or any pullbacks
SL: 1.365
TP: 1.32+

Following up on the USDSGD, it is starting to move up again. The previous price dip was a good buying opportunity, as prices stayed above the SL.

Commodities Market Highlights

Following up on Crude oil, it has gone past $100 as predicted, and the momentum is very strong due to fundamental factors.

It’s a trade-off, depending on your risk preference. Shorting earlier has lower success rate but higher RR, while waiting for more confirmation has higher success rate but lower RR.

Product: Commodities
Name: Gold (spot)
Ticker: XAUUSD
Exchange: N/A

Analysis: Due to the risk-off climate, the price of gold has spiked up significantly, and is looking to surpass the $2000 level soon.

EP: Buy on any pullbacks
SL: $1875
TP: $2070++

Stock Market Highlights

Following up on the NASDAQ 100 (US 100), I said to close all longs and go short once that level is broken, and that happened about 4 days ago.

By now, all our shorts are comfortably in the money.

I also mentioned to take profit on growth stocks, which was just in time before the collapse.

Now, we can continue to ride our short positions as the Russia-Ukraine situation plays out.

Looking at the chart of the NASDAQ, the downtrend is still in progress, and I don’t really see any bullish catalysts at the moment.

Even if Russia calls off the attack, the market was already bearish before that, because of inflation, interest rates, Covid, etc.

Crypto Market Highlights

Following up on Bitcoin (BTCUSD), it unexpectedly was not able to hold the $40k price level, but the uptrend is still intact, so I will be watching to see where this pullback ends.

Good luck, and may next week bring more excellent profits!

Spencer Li

After trading for 18 years, reading 1500+ books, and mentoring 1000+ traders, I specialise in helping people improve their trading results, by using tested trading strategies, and making better decisions via decision science.

0 Comments/by Spencer Li

Weekly Market Wrap: Will Russia Invade Ukraine? Market Seems Undecided…

Market Analysis

For our weekly market wrap, we go through some of the trade calls and analysis from last week, which gives us valuable insights for the week ahead.

We cover 3 main markets with a total of 200+ counters, so we will never run out of trading opportunities:

Forex, CFDs, commodities, bonds
US stocks, ETFs, global stock indices
Cryptocurrencies, crypto indices

By covering a broad range of markets, we can focus our attention (and capital) on whichever market currently gives the best returns.

Forex Market Highlights

Product: Forex
Name: Euro / Japanese Yen
Ticker: EURJPY
Exchange: N/A

Analysis: A bit late to enter this because the move was so fast, but will keep an eye in case there is a pullback opportunity.

Product: Forex
Name: Euro / NZ Dollar
Ticker: EURNZD
Exchange: N/A

Analysis: After failing to break out of the range, there is a good chance it might try to head back down.

EP: 1.70 to 1.71, or on pullbacks
SL: 1.72
TP: 1.64 +

Product: Forex
Name: NZ Dollar / US Dollar
Ticker: NZDUSD
Exchange: N/A

Analysis: Currently on a strong downtrend, with a nice pullback to the 20-EMA.

EP: 0.6656 to 0.66235, or on pullbacks
SL: 0.6745
TP: 0.6400 +

USDCHF – Pullback opportunity

Commodities Market Highlights

Following up on Palladium (PALL), it is now up almost 50% from the bottom, and is now pulling back to form a neat bear flag. Might be a good chance to add positions, since we are already deeply in the money. ????

Product: Commodities
Name: Crude Oil
Ticker: WTIUSD
Exchange: N/A

Analysis: Since the bottom in mid-2020, Crude oil has run up an impressive 700+%, and is on track to test the key level of $100.

I think there is a major resistance level around the $107 area, so I will be looking to short because I am bearish on crude oil in the long-run.

Will continue to monitor.

Stock Market Highlights

? Current trend of stocks ?

Bullish: AAPL, BAC, GOOG, JPM, KO, MA, PG, TSLA, V

Bearish: ADBE, COIN, FB, GRAB, HOOD, NET, NFLX, RBLX, SE, SHOP, SNAP, TWLO, TWTR, ZM

Neutral: ABNB, AMD, AMZN, DIS, HD, JNJ, MSFT, NVDA, PFE, SNOW, UBER

(Note: These are based on medium/long-term trends.)

Product: US Stocks
Name: Grab Holdings
Ticker: GRAB
Exchange: NASDAQ

Analysis: A potential short-term counter-trend bounce trade after falling about 70% from its highs. Broke out from a falling wedge, and formed a small pennant.

EP: Either now, or breakout from pennant
SL: $5.66
TP: $7.00++, but get out if you see a super high spike on high volume

(Update: trade did not get triggered because the pennant failed.)

Following up on the NASDAQ 100 (US 100), I have been long-term bearish on it, but I expected a higher rebound before the bears resumed.

Unfortunately, the recent influx of bad news (Ukraine invasion, inflation, Omicron surge) has accelerated the decline.

Most of the high growth stocks I suggested like SE, NET, etc are still 30-40% up from the lows after the rebound, so it might be a good time to take profits on those.

Overall, the key level to watch out for is the one highlighted in pink, if prices break below that, my suggestion is to either have no positions or be net short in stocks.

Crypto Market Highlights

Product: Cryptocurrency
Name: Avalanche
Ticker: AVAXUSD
Exchange: N/A

Analysis: After staging an impressive recovery of 80+% after the crash, it has recently broken out of the bearish trend channel, and looks to be gaining bullish momentum.

EP: Buy on any pullbacks
SL: $75
TP: $125+++

Following up on Bitcoin (BTCUSD), now would be a good time to enter. Same for Ethereum (ETH).

Currently, most of my crypto portfolio is in BTC and ETH, with some ETFs like DPI, MVI and DEGEN.

For the fun of it, I also like to allocate some capital to what I call “moonshot tokens”, basically tokens which might have the chance to go up a lot.

Currently I have these 3: AVAX, CRO, SHIB.

Good luck, and may next week bring more excellent profits!

Spencer Li

After trading for 18 years, reading 1500+ books, and mentoring 1000+ traders, I specialise in helping people improve their trading results, by using tested trading strategies, and making better decisions via decision science.

0 Comments/by Spencer Li

Weekly Market Wrap: Inflation is Boosting Commodity Plays!

Market Analysis

For our weekly market wrap, we go through some of the trade calls and analysis from last week, which gives us valuable insights for the week ahead.

We cover 3 main markets with a total of 200+ counters, so we will never run out of trading opportunities:

Forex, CFDs, commodities, bonds
US stocks, ETFs, global stock indices
Cryptocurrencies, crypto indices

By covering a broad range of markets, we can focus our attention (and capital) on whichever market currently gives the best returns.

Forex & Commodities Market Highlights

Product: Forex
Name: Aussie Dollar / Swiss Franc
Ticker: AUDCHF
Exchange: N/A

Analysis: Not the strongest trade around, but since this is in a range and near support, there is a chance it might rebound from here.

EP: 0.6550 to 0.6600, or on pullbacks
SL: 0.6500
TP: 0.6778 +

The commodities ETF (GCC) in my portfolio has been doing very well in a rising-inflation environment.

Product: Commodity ETF
Name: KraneShares Global Carbon Strategy ETF
Ticker: KRBN
Exchange: NYSE

Analysis: This has continued to climb strongly with very small pullbacks, and recently broke out of a small ascending triangle.

EP: Buy on any pullbacks
SL: $50
TP: $60+++

Stock Market Highlights

Everything still moving according to plan on the NASDAQ 100 (US 100).

Product: US Stock ETF
Name: S&P 500
Ticker: US500
Exchange: N/A

Analysis: Long-term trend is still sideways or bearish, but the medium-term is forming a small bull flag, which could bring prices to test prior highs.

EP: $4520 to $4550
SL: $4430
TP: $4730 to $4830

Crypto Market Highlights

Product: Cryptocurrency
Name: Bitcoin
Ticker: BTCUSD
Exchange: N/A

Analysis: Now tat Bitcoin has shifted to an uptrend, we should be looking to buy on pullbacks.

EP: Buy on any pullbacks
SL: $40000
TP: $50000+++

Product: Cryptocurrency
Name: Crypto.com token
Ticker: CROUSD
Exchange: N/A

Analysis: This token is making a strong comeback, and is backed by strong fundamentals, with their debit card business.

EP: Buy on any pullbacks
SL: $0.40
TP: $0.80+++

Good luck, and may next week bring more excellent profits!

Spencer Li

After trading for 18 years, reading 1500+ books, and mentoring 1000+ traders, I specialise in helping people improve their trading results, by using tested trading strategies, and making better decisions via decision science.

0 Comments/by Spencer Li

Weekly Market Wrap: Picking the Crypto Bottom!

Market Analysis

For our weekly market wrap, we go through some of the trade calls and analysis from last week, which gives us valuable insights for the week ahead.

We cover 3 main markets with a total of 200+ counters, so we will never run out of trading opportunities:

Forex, CFDs, commodities, bonds
US stocks, ETFs, global stock indices
Cryptocurrencies, crypto indices

By covering a broad range of markets, we can focus our attention (and capital) on whichever market currently gives the best returns.

Forex Market Highlights

Product: Forex
Name: Aussie Dollar / Canadian Dollar
Ticker: AUDCAD
Exchange: N/A

Analysis: Not the best of trades, because the long-term trend is bearish, but the failed downside breakout might give a strong short-term counter-trend move.

EP: 0.8989 to 0.9000
SL: 0.8935
TP: 0.9200

Product: Forex
Name: Swiss Franc / Japanese Yen
Ticker: CHFJPY
Exchange: N/A

Analysis: Low-risk trend channel trade with price pulling back to the bottom of the channel.

EP: 124 to 125
SL: 123.50
TP: 127 to 128

Product: Forex
Name: British Pound / Aussie Dollar
Ticker: GBPAUD
Exchange: N/A

Analysis: Failed to cross resistance at top of the range, may test the bottom of the range again.

EP: 1.92 to 1.895, or any pullbacks
SL: 1.9233
TP: 1.8577 to 1.82

Product: Forex
Name: US Dollar / Swiss Franc
Ticker: USDCHF
Exchange: N/A

Analysis: Buying low and selling high within a trading range.

EP: 0.930 to 0.935, or any pullbacks
SL: 0.938
TP: 0.910 to 0.902

Stock Market Highlights

Following up on the NASDAQ 100 (US 100), it is nearing a crucial point in the market.

While i have closed all my shorts for this (and made a decent amount) and even bought more tech stocks this week, I do think that the market is still bearish long-term.

Hence I am looking at potential areas to short again, either within the yellow zone, or near the previous highs.

Will post again when price reaches the yellow zone.

Speculation on the NASDAQ 100 (US 1000) possible paths. I currently do not have any positions in this.

Product: US Stock ETF
Name: ARK Innovation ETF
Ticker: ARKK
Exchange: NYSE

Analysis: If you look at the red arrows, the move down both times are exactly the same. After falling about 60% from ATHs, it might be time for a bounce. Can also buy for long-term investment.

EP: $60 to $70, or on pullbacks
SL: $57 for trading, N/A for investment
TP: $90 to $100+++

Product: US Stocks
Name: Coca-Cola
Ticker: KO
Exchange: NYSE

Analysis: Surprisingly this counter has barely any correction during the recent market correction. If it breaks a new high, it could continue its uptrend.

EP: $60 to $61.50
SL: $59.50
TP: $64++

Meta Platforms (FB) gapping down 26% after poor earnings, and breaking previous swing lows.

Crypto Market Highlights

Product: Cryptocurrency
Name: Ethereum
Ticker: ETHUSD
Exchange: N/A

Analysis: After correcting more than 50% from its ATHs, we can try to do a bit of bottom-picking. This is somewhat of a higher risk trade, so take a smaller position size. Also suitable for people looking to accumulate some for long-term investment.

EP: 2000 to 2300
SL: 1900
TP: 4000+

Following up on Ethereum (ETHUSD), it is up more than 20% since we picked almost the exact bottom! ????

Overall, we were wrong on our Bitcoin analysis, but correct on Ethereum and Luna.

Product: Cryptocurrency
Name: Terra Luna
Ticker: LUNA
Exchange: N/A

Analysis: After dropping almost 60%, it might be possible for a rebound or resumption of trend.

EP: $44 to $55
SL: $42.5
TP: $66+++

Good luck, and may next week bring more excellent profits!

Spencer Li

After trading for 18 years, reading 1500+ books, and mentoring 1000+ traders, I specialise in helping people improve their trading results, by using tested trading strategies, and making better decisions via decision science.

0 Comments/by Spencer Li

Weekly Market Wrap: Good Chance to Start Buying High Growth Tech Stocks!

Market Analysis

For our weekly market wrap, we go through some of the trade calls and analysis from last week, which gives us valuable insights for the week ahead.

We cover 3 main markets with a total of 200+ counters, so we will never run out of trading opportunities:

Forex, CFDs, commodities, bonds
US stocks, ETFs, global stock indices
Cryptocurrencies, crypto indices

By covering a broad range of markets, we can focus our attention (and capital) on whichever market currently gives the best returns.

Forex Market Highlights

Following up on USDSGD, it has fallen to the bottom of the channel as predicted, so this would be a good time to take profits on the short positions. ????

Can start looking for a pullback opportunity to go long instead.

Product: Forex
Name: US Dollar / SG Dollar
Ticker: USDSGD
Exchange: N/A

Analysis: Following up from the last analysis, it has started to move up from the bottom of the range.

EP: 1.34 to 1.35, or any pullbacks
SL: 1.3376
TP: 1.3650 to 1.3731

Following up on NZDCAD, it has played out exactly as predicted, including the pullback which gave us a good entry price.

Now that we are 200+ pips in profit, we can consider taking half profits and using the trailing stoploss for the rest. ????

Stock Market Highlights

Following up on Crocs (CROX), it has dropped 25% since our short call. Congrats! ????

Following up on Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), it has dropped 22% and hit our TP zone. Congrats! ????

Product: US Stock ETF
Name: ARK Genomic Revolution ETF
Ticker: ARKG
Exchange: NYSE

Analysis: This is a long-term investment idea, to accumulate cheap assets that have fallen a lot. Be prepared to hold for years.

EP: $33 to $44
SL: N/A
TP: $60+++

Following up on the NASDAQ 100 (US100), it has continued to fall, together with the general stock market.

It is a good thing we spotted the change in trend early, to switch our positions to short.

This looks more serious since it has now fallen below the 200-EMA.

Following up on the NASDAQ 100 (US 100), the market is highly volatile with large swings up and down, making it hard to trade at this moment.

While waiting for it to stabilise, I have plotted out several trajectories which price might take in the future.

Following up on Nvidia (NVDA), it has clocked about +25% profit since our entry, so this might be a good place to take profits and wait for a pullback. ????

Following up on Snap (SNAP), it has plunged an incredible 41% since our short call. Ka-ching! ????

With the recent crash of the stock market, especially high growth tech stocks, it is possible that high growth tech might be oversold relative to the rest of the market. I have started to accumulated some for my long-term portfolio, while shorting the NASDAQ 100 to act as a hedge.

The key is to look for good stocks that have fallen by 60-70%, if you plan to buy them for investment, or keep an eye on those which are still falling.

Here are some counters I am monitoring, and I will be posting individual charts/analysis of them when the time is right. Some I have already highlighted a few times, such as … and … .

For individual counters, we can look at … .

Crypto Market Highlights

Following up on Axie Infinity (AXS), it is down about 46% since our short call. Congrats! ????

Product: Cryptocurrency
Name: Ethereum
Ticker: ETHUSD
Exchange: N/A

Analysis: After correcting more than 50% from its ATHs, we can try to do a bit of bottom-picking. This is somewhat of a higher risk trade, so take a smaller position size. Also suitable for people looking to accumulate some for long-term investment.

EP: 2000 to 2300
SL: 1900
TP: 4000+

Product: Cryptocurrency
Name: Bitcoin
Ticker: BTCUSD
Exchange: N/A

Analysis: The past few days have seen muted price action, with small bars and long shadows, signifying uncertainty.

Since the trend is currently bearish, if there are no positive catalysts, price much continue to fall again.

Prices are near the top of the trend channel, so this might be a good low-risk shorting opportunity.

EP: $37288 to $39158
SL: $39820
TP: $33977 to $30275

Good luck, and may next week bring more excellent profits!

Spencer Li

After trading for 18 years, reading 1500+ books, and mentoring 1000+ traders, I specialise in helping people improve their trading results, by using tested trading strategies, and making better decisions via decision science.

0 Comments/by Spencer Li

Weekly Market Wrap: Nuclear Threat Reminiscent of Cuban Missile Crisis

Forex Market Highlights

Commodities Market Highlights

Stock Market Highlights

Crypto Market Highlights

Weekly Market Wrap: Will Russia Invade Ukraine? Market Seems Undecided…

Forex Market Highlights

Commodities Market Highlights

Stock Market Highlights

Crypto Market Highlights

Weekly Market Wrap: Inflation is Boosting Commodity Plays!

Forex & Commodities Market Highlights

Stock Market Highlights

Crypto Market Highlights

Weekly Market Wrap: Picking the Crypto Bottom!

Forex Market Highlights

Stock Market Highlights

Crypto Market Highlights

Weekly Market Wrap: Good Chance to Start Buying High Growth Tech Stocks!

Forex Market Highlights

Stock Market Highlights

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