Blog: Market Analysis

https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/ftx-turmoil-causes-crypto-concern-sending-token-prices-sliding-2022-11-09/

This week was a crazy week, which saw the collapse of FTX, one of the largest crypto brokerages.

This will likely have more domino-effect impact on various crypto markets in the weeks to come, and not in a good way.

On the plus side, the recent CPI data shows a slowing of inflation, which caused stock markets to spike and the USD to plunge.

Is this sufficient for a Fed pivot (or at least a slow in rate hikes), which could hint at a market bottom?

Find out in my “weekly market outlook” video tomorrow, which I will post in my Daily Trading Signals private Telegram channel!

[Photo: Dushanbe, Tajikistan – See my full travel photo log!]

For our weekly market wrap, we go through some of the trade calls and analysis from last week, which gives us valuable insights for the week ahead.

We cover 3 main markets with a total of 200+ counters, so we will never run out of trading opportunities:

Forex, CFDs, commodities, bonds
US stocks, ETFs, global stock indices
Cryptocurrencies, crypto indices

By covering a broad range of markets, we can focus our attention (and capital) on whichever market currently gives the best returns.

Weekly Market Outlook Video

Weekly Market Outlook (07 November 2022)

CPI data on 10 Nov is expected to be the main market mover this week, best not to take any major positions ahead of this news.

Portfolio Highlights

Weekly Portfolio Update (07 November 2022)

Largest position is now short-term T-bills, which are giving 4+% risk-free returns.

Forex & Commodities Market Highlights

USDSGD Crossing 1.40143
Break swing low

WTICOUSD Crossing 85.061
Crude Oil
Break swing low

Stock & Bond Market Highlights

ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) which represents high growth tech stocks broke new lows yesterday, putting it now at a major support level.

IF this level breaks, it will be hitting lows last seen in 2017. Not looking good.

Rebound on China tech stocks (3067) has happened as predicted! Congrats to those who followed, it was a quick 10-15% profit over a few days! ????

BREAKING!

US headline #inflation fell to 7.7% in October, 7.9% expected.

US core #CPI fell to 6.3%, 6.5% expected.

Rally coming!

Layoffs announced in the last day:
– Lyft 13% of workers
– Opendoor 18%
– Stripe 14%
– Chime 12%
– Twitter 50%
– Morgan Stanley (% unknown)

—-

Delivery Hero is laying off as we speak. Don’t have numbers yet. Also, Pleo (expense management) let go 15% of staff.

Lyft, Stripe, CloudKitchens all doing layoffs today. OpenDoor, Chime, Dapper Labs, Gem, MessageBird, Kry this week.

Source: Twitter (GergelyOrosz, GRDecter)

Compared to a month ago, the expected peak interest rate has gone up, but the duration to the peak has shifted from 2.5yrs to 1yr.

This suggests they are expecting the Fed to aggressively hike so the peak can be reached faster, but the peak keeps getting higher.

Crypto Market Highlights

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) and Ethereum (ETHUSD) having huge selldowns after the FTX fiasco.

There is likely a lot more selling/iquidations/margin calls coming up, so it is better not to try and catch the falling knife at this point.

Summary of the whole saga: https://newsletter.banklesshq.com/p/the-shocking-collapse-of-the-ftx

Good luck, and may next week bring more excellent profits!

Spencer is an avid globetrotter who achieved financial freedom in his 20s, while trading & teaching across 70+ countries. As a former professional trader in private equity and proprietary funds, he has over 15 years of market experience, and has been featured on more than 20 occasions in the media.

Weekly Market Wrap: Bear Market Resumes after FOMC!

We had 2 major pieces of new last week, which was the FOMC and the NFP.

The FOMC hiked rates by 0.75%, which was in line with expectations, but they also maintained the hardline stance of aggressively increasing rates till inflation is tamed, and would rather overshoot than undershoot, because (they think) they can remedy by cutting rates if a recession happens.

The NFP data showed that although jobs increased, it seems to be reaching a gradual turning point, which suggested that the rate hikes are working to reverse the trend.

As mentioned in last week’s video, I expect the bearish trend to resume soon, with new lows perhaps as early as next week.

Besides the short position on stocks, there is also something which we have been accumulating steadily, and is now deeply in the money, with lots more room to continue going up.

What do you think this is?

Find out in our Daily Trading Signals private Telegram channel!

[Photo: Jokulsarlon Glacier Lagoon, Iceland – See my full travel photo log!]

For our weekly market wrap, we go through some of the trade calls and analysis from last week, which gives us valuable insights for the week ahead.

We cover 3 main markets with a total of 200+ counters, so we will never run out of trading opportunities:

Forex, CFDs, commodities, bonds
US stocks, ETFs, global stock indices
Cryptocurrencies, crypto indices

By covering a broad range of markets, we can focus our attention (and capital) on whichever market currently gives the best returns.

Weekly Market Outlook Video

Weekly Market Outlook (31 October 2022)
? 2 Nov: FOMC interest-rate decision
? 4 Nov: October NFP jobs report
? 8 Nov: mid-term elections
? 10 Nov: CPI (inflation data)

Portfolio Highlights

Weekly Portfolio Update (31 October 2022)

Increased fixed income (bonds) allocation slightly, went net positive on crypto allocation.

Forex & Commodities Market Highlights

Comparison of all major forex pairs YTD

(Note that I have put the USD as the numerator for all pairs to enable easy comparison.)

USD is the strongest currency, followed by SGD, CAD and CHF.

JPY is the weakest currency by a large margin.

The AUDNZD has traded in a wide range for many years. Recently, it tried to break out of the range but failed and went back down.

It might head back to test the bottom of the range, so we can look to short on pullbacks.

AUDUSD is having a bullish rebound, you can either take a short-term trade to the red zone, or wait for price to reach there for a shorting opportunity.

Entry zone for long positions on the US Dollar Index (DXY), with a SL below.

EURUSD is consolidating near the major 1.000 level, which is now resistance. The red zone would be a good shorting opportunity, with a SL around 1.0100.

After yesterday’s FOMC, where we saw the USDSGD spike down, but shortly after recovered and went back up.

As mentioned in the last video, that’s a strong sign that the price action remains bullish, and will likely test new highs.

Stock & Bond Market Highlights

Comparison of all major markets YTD

Most markets are down for the year, the only 2 which are positive are the US Dollar Index (DXY) and the general Commodity Index (GCC).

Climatic selling on China tech stocks (3067) suggests a possible rebound, which would bring prices back to test the prior resistance.

The NASDAQ 100 (US100) is coming back down after the Fed signalled that they will continue with future rate hikes.

New sentence in the FOMC statement signals more increases but hints at possibly smaller increments.

Crypto Market Highlights

Bull flag forming on Ethereum (ETHUSD) on smaller timeframe. Taking a small long position to see how it goes. Can put a SL around $1450 area.

Good luck, and may next week bring more excellent profits!

Weekly Market Wrap: News-Driven Choppy Markets

https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2022/10/why-isnt-inflation-falling/

Recently, there has been a lot more volatility in the market, as seen even in the major stock indices, where fluctuations of 2-5% a day have become the norm.

In the absence of major news, the market has been reacting strongly on any minor news, making it hard to take short-term trading positions that are technical-driven.

As I mentioned in last week’s video, there is likely to be a rebound, so the best option was to stay out or take short-term long positions.

Now, that the rebound is in progress, the big question is when it will end, and whether it might be the start of a market bottom.

I will be touching on that in this week’s market outlook video, and as well as my strategy to capitalise on that.

If you are keen to join us, check out our Daily Trading Signals Telegram channel.

See you on the inside!

[Photo: Tasmania, Australia – See my full travel photo log!]

For our weekly market wrap, we go through some of the trade calls and analysis from last week, which gives us valuable insights for the week ahead.

We cover 3 main markets with a total of 200+ counters, so we will never run out of trading opportunities:

Forex, CFDs, commodities, bonds
US stocks, ETFs, global stock indices
Cryptocurrencies, crypto indices

By covering a broad range of markets, we can focus our attention (and capital) on whichever market currently gives the best returns.

Weekly Market Outlook Video

Weekly Market Outlook (25 October 2022)
? Next rate hike in about 8 days
? Investors exit China stocks
? Long-term bearish for stocks, crypto, REITs, commods, but short-term sideways
? Long-term bullish for USD

Portfolio Highlights

Weekly Portfolio Update (25 October 2022)

Not much change from last week, since markets have not moved much.

Interesting read: https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2022/10/which-asset-class-is-more-attractive-right-now-stocks-or-bonds/

Does this mean that as long as inflation stops rising, the stock market might start seeing a bottom?

Forex & Commodities Market Highlights

Another nice bear flag on AUDUSD, possible to take a short with SL (stoploss) above the swing high, and ride the trend downwards.

Following up on EURJPY, there was an excellent pullback opportunity for a low-risk entry, with SL below the 2 pin-bars.

Even now, we can still look to enter on any pullbacks on smaller timeframes.

GBPUSD getting ready to resume the downtrend. Taking some short positions.

Gold (XAUUSD) has now hit the previous swing low, congrats to those who have shorted! ????

Now would be a good time to take half profits, and see if the remaining half can drop all the way to the next support level.

Stock & Bond Market Highlights

20+ year treasury bond ETF (TLT) is down 45% from all-time highs, and might continue to fall further.

This is a good leading indicator for stocks, so I will be keeping an eye to see when it bottoms.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/26/facebook-parent-meta-earnings-q3-2022.html

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/24/alibaba-tencent-shares-plummet-as-xi-jinping-tightens-grip-on-power.html

Currently, the yield curve is pricing in a Fed pivot in 1 years time.

Crypto Market Highlights

Recently, Ethereum (ETHUSD) has broke out of the narrow range, and there is no telling whether this is a real or false breakout, so the best options are to:

1. stay out
2. take small long positions on pullbacks on smaller timeframes

Good luck, and may next week bring more excellent profits!

Weekly Market Wrap: UK Tax Cut Reversals Spark Market Rebound?

Although there was a short-term bullish rebound in the markets from the UK tax cut reversal, the impact was short-lived, and in fact it provided us a good shorting opportunity to enter at better prices on the rebound.

The long-term trend is still bullish, and as I just shared in the private signals group, until our leading indicator flashes a reversal signal, I won’t be expecting a reversal in the stock market any time soon.

Our current new short positions are already in the money, so we will continue riding and managing these positions for next week as well.

There are some good trading opportunities to sell various currencies against the US dollar, since it is expected that the USD will continue heading up.

At this point in the market, the main drivers of price are the CPI, NFP and FOMC data, so try to focus on these and filter out the noise in the market. Observe these data releases together with price action and chart patterns, and it will give clues to the market direction.

As per usual, I will be posting updates and trading opportunities in our Daily Trading Signals Telegram channel, so do join us if you are an active trader, or looking to time the market better!

[Photo: Garden Route, South Africa – See my full travel photo log!]

For our weekly market wrap, we go through some of the trade calls and analysis from last week, which gives us valuable insights for the week ahead.

We cover 3 main markets with a total of 200+ counters, so we will never run out of trading opportunities:

Forex, CFDs, commodities, bonds
US stocks, ETFs, global stock indices
Cryptocurrencies, crypto indices

By covering a broad range of markets, we can focus our attention (and capital) on whichever market currently gives the best returns.

Weekly Market Outlook Video

Weekly Market Outlook (18 October 2022)
? Next rate hike in about 25 days
? UK reverses tax cuts, short-term bullish for risk assets
? Long-term bearish for stocks, crypto, REITs, commods, etc.
? Long-term bullish for USD, but short-term bearish

Portfolio Highlights

Weekly Portfolio Update (17 October 2022)

Added more T-bills since yields are now about 4%, meaning I can make a risk-free gain for the next 6 months, while conserving my capital for the big crash.

At this point, it is a very defensive portfolio.

Holding small amounts of various short positions, since the prevailing major trend is bearish. Will close and take profits if the market rebounds against those positions.

Forex & Commodities Market Highlights

Weekly Forex Exposure (17 October 2022)

For the past few weeks, I have been mainly rotating between USD and SGD to maximise gains for my portfolio (since my living expenses are in SGD where I live, but if you live elsewhere, then you can rotate it between your local currency).

Since USD has weakened slightly, I have reduced my exposure to it, but I am expecting the USD bull trend to continue at some point, so I am always monitoring to rotate back to a 80% USD exposure.

The AUDNZD has broke down from its trendline, and it is likely to be bearish/sideways. Look for small consolidations to initiate short positions.

Potential bullish reversal for the EURCHF if the inverse H&S pattern completes and price manages to break the neckline.

I have placed a price alert so that we will know the moment it happens.

Bullish H&S continuation pattern on the EURJPY, making it a good opportunity to long on any pullbacks or on smaller timeframes.

The GBPCAD recently broke the bearish trendline, as it turned up from a very oversold position.

Short/medium-term price action is strong, so I will not be surprised if it manages to head up to test the next resistance level.

After a 1-month ABC correction, the USDSGD might start to resume its uptrend. I have rotated more of my SGD into USD to prepare for this.

Stock & Bond Market Highlights

If the NASDAQ 100 (US100) is unable to clear this zone and stay above it, then there is a good chance we will see more downside.

Same for general China stocks (2801), which is down about 60% from all-time highs.

China tech stocks (3067) are still in free fall, after breaking down from a recent bear flag. Currently down about 72% from all-time highs.

Worldwide Inflation

Good luck, and may next week bring more excellent profits!

Weekly Market Wrap: Market Rebound on Higher Inflation Data??!!!

https://www.wsj.com/articles/global-stocks-markets-dow-update-10-07-2022-11665139154

Last week, all eyes were on the CPI (Consumer Price Index) data, because if inflation does not slow down, it suggests that the measures taken so far are insufficient, then there is a high chance that the Fed will continue raising rates more aggressively (which is bad for markets).

As markets drifted downwards, we continued to manage our shorts, and take profits on our open positions. I also advised to rotate out of USD to SGD, since there might be a weakening of USD.

Surprisingly, even though the CPI was much higher than expected, prices behaved erratically, by first plunging, then recovering and closing up. Thus it is possible that markets have been oversold and much has been priced in.

Now, how should we approach such a market, especially ahead of the rate hikes coming in about 2-3 weeks?

Stayed tuned for my Weekly Market Outlook video in the Daily Trading Signals Telegram channel!

[Photo: Yurt Camping, Kyrgyzstan – See my full travel photo log!]

For our weekly market wrap, we go through some of the trade calls and analysis from last week, which gives us valuable insights for the week ahead.

We cover 3 main markets with a total of 200+ counters, so we will never run out of trading opportunities:

Forex, CFDs, commodities, bonds
US stocks, ETFs, global stock indices
Cryptocurrencies, crypto indices

By covering a broad range of markets, we can focus our attention (and capital) on whichever market currently gives the best returns.

Weekly Market Outlook Video

Weekly Market Outlook (10 October 2022)
? More rate hikes coming on 2nd Nov? CPI release on 13 October.
? Long-term bearish for stocks, crypto, REITs, commods, etc. Slightly in the money now, continue to add more short positions on pullbacks.
? Long-term bullish for USD

Portfolio Highlights

Weekly Portfolio Update (11 October 2022)

Reinstated short positions on stocks, crypto, REITs. Bought some short-term fixed income products to generate yield in the short/medium-term while waiting for buying opportunities.

Forex & Commodities Market Highlights

Weekly Forex Exposure (11 October 2022)

Most exposure is in USD, with the rest in SGD, and short positions on EUR.

NZD is weak against the USD, and NZDUSD has formed a bear flag and is continuing to head downwards.

A similar pattern is seen on the AUDUSD, where a bear flag is formed and prices continue to fall. Great for shorting on any pullbacks.

MAS might take steps to strengthen the SGD, which will cause the USDSGD to fall.

Technicals-wise, there is strong resistance at the 1.44 level, with price getting rejected twice at that level.

The RSI is also turning down from an overbought region.

There might be a correction, so I am reducing my USD exposure.

Gold (XAUUSD) continues to be bearish, as the Fed continues to hike rates to push inflation down. Gold is a leading indicator of inflation.

Could this be a bullish catalyst for oil? https://www.newtraderu.com/2022/10/12/the-worst-oil-crisis-in-40-years-has-started/

Stock & Bond Market Highlights

Global Inflation Rates

? Simple guide for those who have been asking me how to buy T-bills for 4% yield. (You might want to bookmark it.)

(Check out the full guide in our Daily Trading Signals Telegram channel.

‘It’s the interest-rate outlook determining the equity market, and the key to the interest-rate outlook is the labor market.’

More bad earnings to come? https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-jittery-stock-market-heads-into-earnings-season-11665258248

Crypto Market Highlights

After a long wait on my shorts, Ethereum (ETHUSD) is finally breaking down! ?

Good luck, and may next week bring more excellent profits!