Blog: Market Analysis

Last week saw an array of significant events unfold in the global banking and financial sectors, with concerns over Deutsche Bank, rising inflation, and China’s economic recovery dominating headlines.

Deutsche Bank’s shares slid 8% after a sudden spike in default insurance costs raised concerns among investors. While analysts insisted that Deutsche Bank was not the next Credit Suisse, panic spread throughout the markets, leading to a short banking crisis. As a result, $100 billion was pulled from banks, though the overall banking system was deemed sound and resilient.

European leaders scrambled to address the banking crisis and stabilize markets. The upcoming week will feature congressional hearings on SVB (Silicon Valley Bank), which have been affected by the same concerns plaguing Deutsche Bank and Credit Suisse.

The Federal Reserve bumped interest rates up by 25 basis points, marking the first rate hike since the pandemic began. Investors weighed the implications of this decision, as well as ongoing bank troubles, leading to mixed market reactions.

The US dollar and Swiss franc were identified as the weakest major currencies, while the yen rose in value. Investors now await a key inflation report (core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index) this coming week, as concerns about inflation and its impact on monetary policy persist.

A Chinese Communist Party official stated that the foundation of China’s economic recovery was not solid enough, leading to concerns about the country’s stability. In response, Citi labeled China a relative safe haven amid market uncertainty.

Oil prices fell as the US held off on refilling its strategic petroleum reserve, while gold prices gained on the back of the Federal Reserve’s hint at a pause in rate hikes.

For more market updates and real-time trading opportunities, check out our “Daily Trading Signals” Telegram channel!

[Photo: Kusadasi, Turkey – See my full travel photo log!]

For our weekly market wrap, we go through some of the trade calls and analysis from last week, which gives us valuable insights for the week ahead.

We cover 3 main markets with a total of 200+ counters, so we will never run out of trading opportunities:

Forex, CFDs, commodities, bonds
US stocks, ETFs, global stock indices
Cryptocurrencies, crypto indices

By covering a broad range of markets, we can focus our attention (and capital) on whichever market currently gives the best returns.

Weekly Market Outlook Video

Weekly Market Outlook (19 March 2023)

📌 FOMC on 22 March (Wed)
📌 80% chance of 25 bp hike
📌 Markets seem to be expecting a quick crash/recession followed by Fed cutting rates in Q3 this year
📌 Looking to accumulate long-term bonds (TLT) in my portfolio

Portfolio Highlights

Weekly Portfolio Updates (19 March 2023)

Added some bonds (TLT) and high growth stocks (ARKK) to my portfolio, while adding some shorts to the Dow Jones ETF (DIA).

Forex & Commodities Market Highlights

AUDCHF – Prices have rebounded to test the support-turned-resistance level, making it a good chance for a short position.

CADCHF – Nice pullback to test the breakout point, providing a good shorting opportunity.

NZDCHF – Another potential short after pulling back to test the breakout level.

Crude Oil (WTICOUSD) – Looking at the long-term weekly chart, it shows a huge downtrend channel.

Will we really see prices drop to 2020 lows?

Maybe if there is a recession, otherwise it seems unlikely.

Stock & Bond Market Highlights

China tech stocks (3067) – Might be forming a possible bullish inverse head-and-shoulders reversal pattern.

Started accumulating some, but will not take large positions until the neckline is cleared.

NASDAQ 100 (US100) – Yesterday, after the FOMC, prices broke above the previous swing high, but closed lower by the end of the session.

Direction is not very clear but I am more towards the bearish side.

NASDAQ 100 (US100) – It is now 2 days in a row where prices pushed new highs, then closed back down.

From here, prices can either drop back down to test prior lows, or consolidate for a few more bars to accumulate strength to push new highs.

As mentioned before, I am more inclined to the bearish side.

Weekly Chart of Credit Suisse (27 years)

Current situation and nothing adds up.

The “Fed Put” is back with assets on their balance sheet increasing $297 billion over the last week, the largest spike higher since March 2020.

Inflation vs. Recession

While everyone was distracted by SVB they missed Credit Suisse.

While everyone is distracted by Credit Suisse they’re missing Wells Fargo.

Crypto Market Highlights

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) and Ethereum (ETHUSD) – Following up on these 2, prices have broken out strongly as predicted!

Congrats to those who took the trade! 💰🔥💪🏻

Spencer is an avid globetrotter who achieved financial freedom in his 20s, while trading & teaching across 70+ countries. As a former professional trader in private equity and proprietary funds, he has over 15 years of market experience, and has been featured on more than 20 occasions in the media.

Weekly Market Wrap: 25bp Hike for the Next FOMC?

This week, unprecedented disruptions occurred in global markets, with major sovereign bond markets trading like meme stocks. The US Treasury experienced a rare 12-sigma move, while German Bunds had a record-breaking single-day move.

Volatility indicators also had their largest moves since the COVID shock. This turmoil was triggered by a bank run on Silicon Valley Bank, leading to the first US bank failure since 2008.

The upcoming FOMC meeting will be crucial, with analysts divided over the best course of action. A business-as-usual approach, with a 25bp rate hike, could help calm markets. The Fed’s swift actions to address financial stability and inflation separately may allow them to proceed with rate hikes.

Despite these challenges, this is not considered a systemic issue yet, and the banking system is expected to cope with the current crisis. The FOMC’s decision, along with the ECB’s, will likely focus on fighting inflation while dealing with troubled financial institutions separately.

We have started to do some rebalancing in our portfolio to prepare for the next stage in the market. Is your portfolio ready to take advantage of the upcoming market cycle?

For more real-time market updates and profit opportunities, check out our “Daily Trading Signals” Telegram channel!

[Photo: Ephesus, Turkey – See my full travel photo log!]

For our weekly market wrap, we go through some of the trade calls and analysis from last week, which gives us valuable insights for the week ahead.

We cover 3 main markets with a total of 200+ counters, so we will never run out of trading opportunities:

Forex, CFDs, commodities, bonds
US stocks, ETFs, global stock indices
Cryptocurrencies, crypto indices

By covering a broad range of markets, we can focus our attention (and capital) on whichever market currently gives the best returns.

Weekly Market Outlook Video

Weekly Market Outlook (12 March 2023)

📌 FOMC on 22 March (Wed)
📌 Closure of 2 banks shifted priority from fighting inflation to preventing recession
📌 Markets seem to be expecting a quick crash/recession followed by Fed cutting rates in Q3 this year

Portfolio Highlights

Weekly Portfolio Updates (12 March 2023)

Great profits from our shorts last week, and this week I’ll be looking to add some long-term bonds (TLT) to my portfolio.

Forex & Commodities Market Highlights

AUDNZD – Perfect TP for short positions on the H4 chart right at the low before prices rebound! 💰🔥💪🏻

EURCHF – Following up on this, we have 200+ pips profit in the running, but there is likely to be more. 💰🔥💪🏻

Take some profits, and use a tight SL for the remaining positions.

NZDCHF – Following up on this, excellent short trade that gave us 200+ pips profit! 💰🔥💪🏻

Remember to take profits and use a trailing SL for the remaining positions.

Crude Oil (WTICOUSD) – Broke below the $70 level, and the downtrend continues.

Nearing major support at $65, and the RSI is oversold. Will be a good level to take profits.

Gold (XAUUSD) – Following up on our long trade, this popped up more than 5% in just a few days! 💰🔥💪🏻

Good chance that it will continue to test /break the prior swing high, so use a tight trailing SL to ride the trend.

Stock & Bond Market Highlights

China tech stocks (3067) – Following up on this, it is moving exactly as predicted. Just be patient and collect the profits, while waiting for the chance to go long! 💰🔥💪🏻

Dow Jones Index (US30) – After breaking the major support, it looks more bearish than bullish.

For far the Dow has been quite resistant to the downside, only declining 22% during the last drop.

Will it be testing the prior lows soon?

CPI estimates

Here are the key numbers investors from Friday’s report, with results compared January’s data.

Paper losses proliferate. US bank unrealised gains and losses on investment securities.

Just 2 weeks ago both the 6-month and 1-year yields were above 5%, today the 6-month is around 4.8% while the 1-year is around 4.3%.

Seems like the market is really expecting the Fed to cut rates by the end of this year?!!?!

We have moved from inflationary fears to deflationary fears.

Crypto Market Highlights

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) and Ethereum (ETHUSD) – After failing to break lower, we saw an impressive U-turn rally that brought both tokens near its previous highs, poised for breakout.

I think there is a good chance of a breakout happening this time.

USDC depegging due to SVB contagion
USD Coin (USDC) experienced a 10% drop in value to trade at $0.8774 after Circle, its issuer, was unable to withdraw $3.3bn of its $40bn from Silicon Valley Bank (SVB).

Although SVB was due to close, Circle initiated a wire transfer to remove its funds, but the bank was unable to process the transfers fully.

The USDC price change was sudden, with on-chain data revealing that Circle redeemed a net of $1.4bn in USDC in eight hours, while crypto firms Coinbase and Jump Trading redeemed $850m and up to $138m respectively to reduce exposure.

SVB is crucial to the US economy, said Circle’s Chief Strategy Officer Dante Disparte, warning that the bank’s failure without a Federal rescue plan will have broader implications for businesses, banking and entrepreneurs.

Good luck, and may next week bring more excellent profits!

Weekly Market Wrap: Will Banks Runs Cause the Market to Crash Next Week?

Silicon Valley Bank’s recent troubles have highlighted the risks posed by exposure to mortgage-backed securities. The bank purchased over $80 billion of these securities with deposits, but as interest rates rose, the value of the securities plummeted. The bank recently announced it had sold $21 billion of its Available For Sale securities at a $1.8 billion loss, sparking a wider selloff of banking stocks.

The failure of Silicon Valley Bank could impact the US Federal Reserve’s ability to raise interest rates and withdraw stimulus measures. The failure of a major bank could cause the Fed to rethink its policy, potentially preventing a recession. However, other experts warn that the failure of the bank could have broader implications for the US economy, with potential knock-on effects for businesses and entrepreneurs.

The Japanese yen is expected to continue to depreciate against the US dollar in the coming months. This is due to the expectation of continued divergence in monetary policy between the Bank of Japan and the US Federal Reserve.

Oil prices remain largely unchanged, with concerns over interest rate hikes dampening sentiment. The Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates, which could reduce demand for oil and lower prices. Despite this, prices remain supported by ongoing supply cuts by OPEC and its allies.

The upcoming week is expected to be critical for economic data, with a number of key reports scheduled for release. These include CPI, retail sales, industrial production, and housing starts. Analysts will be closely watching these figures to assess the health of the economy and to gauge the likelihood of a recession. The Federal Reserve’s rate decision on March 15 will also be closely watched, with expectations of further rate hikes.

Stay tuned for more real-time updates and trading opportunities in our “Daily Trading Signals” Telegram channel!

[Photo: Lake Aydarkul, Uzbekistan – See my full travel photo log!]

For our weekly market wrap, we go through some of the trade calls and analysis from last week, which gives us valuable insights for the week ahead.

We cover 3 main markets with a total of 200+ counters, so we will never run out of trading opportunities:

Forex, CFDs, commodities, bonds
US stocks, ETFs, global stock indices
Cryptocurrencies, crypto indices

By covering a broad range of markets, we can focus our attention (and capital) on whichever market currently gives the best returns.

Weekly Market Outlook Video

Weekly Portfolio Updates (05 March 2023)

📌 Not much changes from last week
📌 Some of the T-bills will be expiring this or next month, so will be rolling them over into new 6-month positions at 5+%

Portfolio Highlights

Weekly Market Outlook (05 March 2023)

📌 USD remains strong
📌 Weakness on AUD & NZD
📌 Equities & crypto mixed
📌 NFP and FOMC coming up

Forex & Commodities Market Highlights

AUDCHF – Following up on this trade, we managed to catch the top and get a good entry, and now it is 200+ pips in the money!

Congrats to those who took this trade! 💰🔥💪🏻

AUDUSD – Following up on this short trade, it is 200+ pips in profit, and looks like it can fall a bit more.

Congrats to those who took this trade! 💰🔥💪🏻

USDSGD – Following up on this, the consolidation was a pennant chart pattern, which indicates a second leg of close to equal proportion to the first leg.

Yesterday, we saw a strong breakout of the pennant, with a potential target of 1.3800.

For those who have been long since the bottom, congrats on the rough 4% capital appreciation! 💰🔥💪🏻

NZDCHF – After retracing to test the breakout neckline, it is now giving us another great shorting opportunity.

NZDUSD – After breaking the support level, it went on to test the support-turned-resistance level, and is now poised to head downwards.

Great low-risk shorting opportunity.

Stock & Bond Market Highlights

NASDAQ 100 (US100) – After several bullish pin-bars, there is some bullish short-term price action (maybe profit-taking?), so we might see a rebound to test the support-turned-resistance level.

Wil watch out at the red circled zone next week.

China tech stocks (3067) – Following up on this, after the decline to support and the bounce, we are expecting another leg down.

We are looking for a potential buying zone for the long-term bull trend, and I have circled that zone.

We will see what happens once price reaches that zone. Stay tuned!

Cos on Twitter some people will be very bullish, some will be very bearish, so good to see both sides what the reasons are.

Total delinquent consumer loans in the United States.

Fed tightening cycles always “break” something.

For the first time in a long time, fixed income is more attractive than stocks. 🤩

Short-term US Treasurys climbed to new milestones after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that the central bank would likely raise interest rates higher than previously expected and was ready to accelerate the pace of rate increases if necessary.

The yield on the two-year Treasury note had settled at 5.011%, up from 4.892% Monday, and marked its first close above 5% since June 2007.

Traders’ immediate focus is the central bank’s next rate-setting meeting, which wraps up two weeks from Wednesday.

Bets in futures markets now reflect roughly two-thirds odds of a half-point move at the coming meeting, up from about one-thirds odds a day earlier.

Crypto Market Highlights

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) and Ethereum (ETHUSD) – After the testing the previous swing high, they did not manage to break through, but they could be building strength to try again.

You can either accumulate some near the minor support level, or wait for prices to break the prior swing high before going long.

Good luck, and may next week bring more excellent profits!

Weekly Market Wrap: Inflation Fears are Back Again?

The global financial markets are experiencing volatility as investors try to gauge the future path of monetary policy. The US Federal Reserve has said it may hike interest rates sooner than expected to combat rising inflation, which could have an impact on stock and bond markets. The Fed has also been discussing the possibility of reducing its bond-buying program.

In Asia, Japan’s central bank has said it will maintain its loose monetary policy, while China is considering measures to boost economic growth.

Gold prices have risen as traders assess the likelihood of interest rate hikes in the US. The precious metal is often seen as a hedge against inflation and is currently on track for its best week since mid-January. Meanwhile, the US dollar has experienced its first weekly loss since January, with traders uncertain about the Fed’s path.

Europe is also experiencing volatility in its financial markets, with concerns over rising inflation in the eurozone. Inflation in the region hit a record high of 7.7% in February, according to Eurostat. The European Central Bank is under pressure to take action to combat inflation, but has so far maintained its stance on monetary policy.

Overall, it is a challenging time for investors as they navigate uncertainty over monetary policy, inflation, and economic growth. The situation is being closely monitored by market participants around the world.

For more market updates and real-time trading opportunities, check out our “Daily Trading Signals” Telegram channel!

[Photo: Dushanbe, Tajikistan – See my full travel photo log!]

For our weekly market wrap, we go through some of the trade calls and analysis from last week, which gives us valuable insights for the week ahead.

We cover 3 main markets with a total of 200+ counters, so we will never run out of trading opportunities:

Forex, CFDs, commodities, bonds
US stocks, ETFs, global stock indices
Cryptocurrencies, crypto indices

By covering a broad range of markets, we can focus our attention (and capital) on whichever market currently gives the best returns.

Weekly Market Outlook Video

Weekly Market Outlook (26 February 2023)

Last week was great for our positioning of long USD and short equities, we could see a continue of that this week due to momentum, unless there is any major news to change the flow.

Portfolio Highlights

Weekly Portfolio Updates (26 February 2023)

📌 Our accumulated short positions are doing very well
📌 Added more shorts on pullbacks as the market went down

Forex & Commodities Market Highlights

AUDCAD – Prices are falling as anticipated, congrats to those who took this short trade! 💰🔥💪🏻

AUDNZD – Following up from one of the previous videos, this was a nice short at major resistance, which coincided with the breakdown of a bearish rising wedge.

Congrats to those who shorted, and there might be another shorting opportunity on the next pullback! 💰🔥💪🏻

EURAUD – It took way longer than expected, but prices are finally heading up!

USDSGD – Looking the at the weekly chart, we managed to use the long-term trend to our advantage and go in big on the USD. I accumulated about $500k of USD near the support area.

Let’s see how much higher it can go! 💰🔥💪🏻

Gold (XAUUSD) – This price movement prediction was spot on, except that the rebound happened on a smaller scale.

Congrats to those who shorted! 💰🔥💪🏻

Gold (XAUUSD) – Following up from the video, we mentioned that there is likely to be a rebound this week due to prices being oversold.

Stock & Bond Market Highlights

Based on our latest market poll, there does not seem to be a clear direction, with 39% bullish vs 46% bearish, and 15% neutral.

China tech stocks (3067) – Nearing our profit target for short positions! 💰🔥💪🏻

China tech stocks (3067) – Like I mentioned in the video, this support was a good place to flip to long, and just today we saw a crazy price surge of 6+%! 💰🔥💪🏻

Google (GOOG) – Following up from our video last week, the price has fallen back into the channel as predicted, and looks likely to continue heading down.

Congrats to those who shorted! 💰🔥💪🏻

NASDAQ 100 (US100) – Managed to short near the top, congrats to those who joined in! 💰🔥💪🏻

Let’s see if the downtrend continues next week!

Singapore’s inflation is 6.7% 😕

For the first time in a long time, fixed income is more attractive than stocks. 🤩

Good luck, and may next week bring more excellent profits!

Weekly Market Wrap: Large Profits on USD Longs and Stock Market Shorts!

Global markets had a mixed week, as concerns over rising interest rates and inflation continued to weigh on investor sentiment.

Gold prices edged up as the dollar weakened due to rate hike worries, capping off a choppy trading week for the precious metal. The price of gold has been volatile in recent weeks as investors weigh the impact of rising interest rates and inflation on its value.

Meanwhile, the US dollar was steady as investors evaluated the Federal Reserve’s outlook for higher-for-longer interest rates. The yen saw increased volatility as traders digested mixed economic data from Japan.

Oil prices gained on Russian supply cut worries, while higher US inventories weighed on prices. Crude prices rebounded after a six-day losing streak as market participants watched geopolitical tensions and supply cuts.

In Asia, equities were mixed, with US rate hike worries still weighing on the markets. Japan’s Nikkei 225 index closed higher, while China’s Shanghai Composite fell.

Overall, markets continue to face uncertainty over the direction of interest rates and inflation, as well as geopolitical risks, which are likely to lead to volatility in the short term.

Thankfully, over the past week, we have been holding large USDSGD long positions and large short positions on the US stock market, which gave us double gains for our portfolio.

For more market updates and real-time trading opportunities, join our private “Daily Trading Signals” Telegram channel!

[Photo: Charyn Canyon, Kazakhstan – See my full travel photo log!]

For our weekly market wrap, we go through some of the trade calls and analysis from last week, which gives us valuable insights for the week ahead.

We cover 3 main markets with a total of 200+ counters, so we will never run out of trading opportunities:

Forex, CFDs, commodities, bonds
US stocks, ETFs, global stock indices
Cryptocurrencies, crypto indices

By covering a broad range of markets, we can focus our attention (and capital) on whichever market currently gives the best returns.

Weekly Market Outlook Video

Weekly Market Outlook (19 February 2023)

📌 CPI rose 0.5% in January on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.1 percent in December.
📌 Retail sales increase 3.0% in January
📌 Core retail sales rise 1.7%; December data unrevised
📌 Manufacturing production rebounds 1.0%
📌 Current Fed rates are 4.50% to 4.75%, 80% chance of 4.75% to 5.00% in next FOMC meeting
📌 Risk-off mode again?

Portfolio Highlights

Weekly Portfolio Updates (19 February 2023)

📌 Added a bit more T-bills at 5%
📌 Took profit on US tech stocks and REIT shorts
📌 Added a bit more short positions to stocks

Forex & Commodities Market Highlights

USDSGD – Congrats on the 300+ pips profit riding this wave up! 💰🔥💪🏻

Now that it has run into strong resistance, it is a good idea to take half or some profits, and trail the rest.

GBPJPY – As mentioned in the video, this counter is in a long-term uptrend channel, and more recently broke out from an ascending triangle.

Stock & Bond Market Highlights

China tech stocks (3067) – After a strong run-up, we can expect a pullback to support, which may be a good buying opportunity to get onto the long-term trend.

NASDAQ 100 (US100) – Currently consolidating at a crucial point, if it breaks lower bulls will give up and bears will jump in again.

If it breaks higher, then bears will wait at the prior swing high (around 13750) to mount another challenge.

Watching this today to see if it breaks to the downside and triggers the price alert.

NASDAQ 100 (US100) – Looking at the 4 hour chart, it has a nice pullback to the breakout neckline. Good chance to add more short positions.

Investors have been hoping for a “soft landing” for the US economy, but the recent spate of strong economic data has worried some that it might not happen.

The fear is that the US economy will continue to heat up, forcing the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates higher than expected for longer, increasing the chances of a sharp downturn that would hit the markets hard. Investors had been hoping that the Fed would be able to rein in inflation without tipping the economy into recession.

The recent strength of the data has led analysts to increase their forecasts for the peak federal-funds rate to around 5.25%, with some warning that such an increase would increase the likelihood of a recession, which the S&P 500 tends to decline in such scenarios.

Crypto Market Highlights

Ethereum (ETHUSD) – Can consider taking a long position with a tight stop, with a potential upside of 15-20% to test the prior swing high.

After a series of high-profile collapses in 2022, cryptocurrencies faced a tough year. However, things may be looking up in 2023 as Bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies have started to rise, suggesting that the dreaded “crypto winter” could be thawing.

Analysts believe that favourable market conditions and the US Federal Reserve slowing its pace of interest rate hikes could be contributing to this rise. Additionally, the upcoming Bitcoin halving event in 2024 could help lift the prices of Bitcoin out of the doldrums, according to historical data.

Furthermore, the development of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) could give digital assets more credibility. While cryptocurrencies remain volatile, they could continue to be used as a digital currency for transactions in the digital space.