Market analysis, insights and trading ideas on various markets and products!

image first republic and recession 1

For our “Daily Trading Signals”, we have now also included a “Weekly Market Report”, where we provide a weekly deep-dive on the market, including fundamentals, technicals, economics, and portfolio management:

Click here for last week’s market report (24 April 2023)
Click here to subscribe for the latest market report (31 April 2023)
Click here to see the archives of all our past market reports

We cover 3 main markets with a total of 200+ counters, so we will never run out of trading opportunities:

By covering a broad range of markets, we can focus our attention (and capital) on whichever market currently gives the best returns.

Subscribe for real-time alerts and weekly reports:
👉🏻 https://synapsetrading.com/daily-trading-signals

image first republic and recession 1

Market Recap & Upcoming Week

Last week, the potential of generative AI technology to boost revenues for tech giants like Amazon, Microsoft, and Alphabet created a buzz in the market. Despite the growth slowdown in their cloud-computing services, shares of these companies have outperformed the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite. Microsoft’s plans to adopt OpenAI’s ChatGPT technology, Alphabet’s share increase, and Amazon’s AI plans announcement contributed to their stock performance.

On the other hand, Moody’s Investors Service downgraded 11 regional banks, highlighting the increased instability in the banking sector due to higher interest rates and recent bank failures. This exposed weaknesses among regional banks and raised concerns over the commercial real estate market.

In the stock market, S&P 500’s trading at 18 times its 12-month forward P/E estimates has led institutions to reduce exposure to economically-sensitive sectors in anticipation of a potential U.S. recession. Insider buying in the financial sector signals optimism, but analysts urge caution as other factors can influence stock performance. As the first quarter US earnings season unfolds with mixed results, hedge funds have increased their net short position in S&P 500 index futures, showing skepticism about Wall Street’s recovery. However, some analysts argue that equities still offer better returns than bonds and have the potential for earnings growth.

This week, as earnings season marches on, investors will keep a close eye on reports from major companies such as Pfizer, Starbucks, Uber Technologies, AMD, Qualcomm, Apple, Royal Dutch Shell, BP, and ConocoPhillips. Additionally, Berkshire Hathaway’s annual shareholders’ meeting in Omaha, Nebraska, will draw attention to Warren Buffett’s insights and investment strategies.

In terms of economic indicators, updates on the labor market will come in the form of the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), ADP’s National Employment Report, and the April nonfarm payrolls report.

In addition, central to financial discussions this week will be the Federal Reserve’s two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, commencing on Tuesday. Market participants will be eager to learn the outcome of Wednesday’s interest rate decision, which is anticipated to be the final rate hike in the current tightening cycle. As these events unfold, investors will be looking for hints on how companies and the economy will navigate the ongoing challenges posed by inflation, interest rates, and potential slowdowns in growth.

 

Daily Trading Signals (Highlights)

AUDCHF 280423

AUDCHF – Following up, it has hit the first TP with 170+ pips profit! 💰🔥💪🏻

Since price action is still bearish, can consider closing half and letting the other half trail.

 

EURAUD 280423

EURAUD – Our TP for this has hit with 630+ pips total profit. Congrats to those who took this trade! 💰🔥💪🏻

Price momentum is still strong, so if you want to leave a small position to run you can do so as well.

 

Trading Signals GBPCAD 250423

GBPCAD – Prices resuming upward move, let’s see how far it can go!

 

Trading Signals GPBUSD 280423

GPBUSD – Following up, prices are starting to head up after consolidating for the past month or so.

 

Trading Signals US30 260423

Dow Jones Index (US30) – Good low risk high reward shorting opportunity near the top of the price channel.

 

Trading Signals WTICOUSD 280423

Crude Oil (WTICOUSD) – Since it failed to hold new highs, prices might come back to test the bottom of the range.

pexels expect best 351264

For our “Daily Trading Signals”, we have now also included a “Weekly Market Report”, where we provide a weekly deep-dive on the market, including fundamentals, technicals, economics, and portfolio management:

Click here for last week’s market report (17 April 2023)
Click here to subscribe for the latest market report (24 April 2023)
Click here to see the archives of all our past market reports

We cover 3 main markets with a total of 200+ counters, so we will never run out of trading opportunities:

By covering a broad range of markets, we can focus our attention (and capital) on whichever market currently gives the best returns.

Subscribe for real-time alerts and weekly reports:
👉🏻 https://synapsetrading.com/daily-trading-signals

 

pexels expect best 351264

Market Recap & Upcoming Week

Last week, concerns grew about the historical trend of stocks rallying after the Federal Reserve finishes raising interest rates, as earnings growth falters and stocks look expensive relative to history. Elevated inflation may continue to weigh on earnings in the coming quarters.

Microsoft’s Bing is challenging Google in the lucrative search market, raising the cost of retaining this business. This comes as global online advertising is in a slump, and traffic acquisition costs (TAC) reached nearly $49 billion last year.

Tesla’s operating margin declined due to aggressive price cuts and inflation in materials.

The Walt Disney Company is expected to lay off thousands of employees starting next week as part of its cost-cutting initiatives. Economists are predicting a recession later this year as the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, which businesses and consumers haven’t experienced in 15 years.

In other news, Goldman Sachs reported an 18% decrease in first-quarter profit, while Morgan Stanley saw a 19% drop in Q1 profit due to a slowdown in deal-making.

Meanwhile, China surprised economists with strong 4.5% growth in the first quarter despite its housing market crash and a conservative monetary stance.

This week, investors should closely monitor the earnings reports from major tech companies, including Apple, Amazon, Google parent Alphabet, Microsoft, and Meta Platforms, as well as other noteworthy companies like Coca-Cola Company, McDonald’s, Visa, Mastercard, and ExxonMobil, among others.

These reports will provide valuable insights into the performance and future prospects of these industry giants.

Additionally, keep an eye on the Case-Shiller National Home Price Index for February, new and pending home sales for March, and the BEA’s advance estimate for the first-quarter GDP to get a clearer picture of the current state of the economy.

Furthermore, don’t miss the key update on inflation with the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index—the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge—for March. This indicator will help assess the extent of inflationary pressures in the economy and potentially influence the Fed’s monetary policy decisions.

Daily Trading Signals (Highlights)

Trading Signals CADCHF 210423

CADCHF – Congrats on hitting the first TP! 💰🔥💪🏻

High chance of another leg down, so can close half and use a trailing SL.

 

Trading Signals NZDCHF 210423

NZDCHF – Prices have fallen to support, and hit the profit target for 287 pips profit! Congrats to those who took this trade! 💰🔥💪🏻

 

Trading Signals CADJPY 210423

CADJPY – A potential range trading opportunity.

 

Trading Signals AUDCHF 210423

NASDAQ 100 (US100) – Stocks have been very flat the past 3 weeks, with the trading range here of only roughly 3% from top to bottom.

In addition, the last 5 bar bodies are super tiny and with long shadows, suggesting much indecision.

Will need to wait for a breakout of the range before any trades can be taken.

 

Trading Signals US100 200423

NASDAQ 100 (US100) – Stocks have been very flat the past 3 weeks, with the trading range here of only roughly 3% from top to bottom.

In addition, the last 5 bar bodies are super tiny and with long shadows, suggesting much indecision.

Will need to wait for a breakout of the range before any trades can be taken.

Neuschwanstein Castle German

For our “Daily Trading Signals”, we have now also included a “Weekly Market Report”, where we provide a weekly deep-dive on the market, including fundamentals, technicals, economics, and portfolio management:

Click here for our most recent market report (10 April 2023)
Click here to see the archives of all our past market reports

We cover 3 main markets with a total of 200+ counters, so we will never run out of trading opportunities:

By covering a broad range of markets, we can focus our attention (and capital) on whichever market currently gives the best returns.

Subscribe for real-time alerts and weekly reports:
👉🏻 https://synapsetrading.com/daily-trading-signals

 

Neuschwanstein Castle German

[Photo: Neuschwanstein Castle, Schwangau, Germany – See my full travel photo log from trading & travelling!]

Market Recap & Upcoming Week

Last week, the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average experienced fluctuations as inflation in March dropped to its lowest level in almost two years, increasing optimism among investors. The March CPI report showed falling energy prices, rising services prices, and a slowdown in food inflation. Investors should keep an eye on durable goods prices as their increase could signal more challenges for inflation.

Gold prices surged to their highest level of the year, reflecting a 13% increase year to date. Despite slowing inflation data, investors anticipate the Federal Reserve scaling back its rate-hiking campaign due to concerns about economic weakness. Used vehicle prices, which spiked in 2020-2021, started to drop in early 2022, but the not-seasonally-adjusted CPI for used vehicles increased by 1.0% in March, suggesting the drop in used vehicle CPI may be over.

Ethereum (ETH) broke to news highs, and the Shapella Upgrade successfully boosted the price of ETH, even though it enabled withdrawals from the Beacon Chain. Staking inflows have risen for four consecutive days, reflecting bullish sentiment towards Ethereum after its shift to a Proof-of-Stake protocol.

Singapore’s economy grew by a mere 0.1% year-on-year in Q1 2023 due to a decline in manufacturing, and the country risks entering a technical recession if growth continues to slow in Q2 2023. JPMorgan, Citi, Wells Fargo, and PNC Financial reported their results, with mixed outcomes for their stocks.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) warned of a larger deficit in the oil market due to surprise production cuts from OPEC’s leading members, which could send crude prices higher and worsen inflation.

In the upcoming week, earnings season will be in full swing, with reports from major companies such as Johnson & Johnson, Bank of America, Netflix, Lockheed Martin, Tesla, Morgan Stanley, IBM, American Express, and Procter & Gamble. Updates on the housing market, inflation readings from the U.K., eurozone, and Japan, and Q1 GDP figures from China will also become available.

Daily Trading Signals 

Here are some of the real-time signals and price alerts that were triggered during the week. There were a lot of profitable forex trades, but the biggest profits came from our trade on Ethereum, which has been up by more than 20%!

 

Trading Signals ETHUSD 140423

Ethereum (ETHUSD) – Short-term momentum is still very strong, as prices blew past $2,000.

Congrats to all those who took this trade! 💰🔥💪🏻

Can consider taking half profits and continue riding the uptrend.

 

TP hit ETHUSD

Actually will probably go to $2k soon, so can wait a while more.

 

Trading Signals BTCUSD 140423

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) – Prices broke out from the symmetrical triangle, and above $30,000, which is an important psychological price level.

Looks like it will continue going higher.

 

Trading Signals USDCHF 140423

USDCHF – Congrats to those who took this trade, I did not expect the TP to be hit that fast! 💰🔥💪🏻

There is strong support around 0.88, so you might want to consider taking half profits and trailing the rest.

 

Trading Signals USDSGD 140423

USDSGD – Now that prices have broke down from the bear flag, I won’t be surprised if the prior low gets tested.

 

Trading Signals US30 120423
Dow Jones Index (US30) – Long shadows near the trendlines have so far led to price rejections and price moving to the opposite side of the price channel.

 

Trading Signals CHFJPY 140423

CHFJPY – Prices breaking out from a period of consolidation.

zion national park 1 1030x709 1

The upcoming week will see the beginning of the earnings season, with reports from major banks and financial institutions, including JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, BlackRock, and PNC Financial Services. Earnings for S&P 500 companies are projected to fall by 6.6%, marking the largest quarterly decline since Q2 2020.

The Federal Reserve will release meeting minutes from its most recent policy meeting on Wednesday, and markets will be watching closely on the tone and words used, to provide guidance for future rate policy direction.

Inflation reports for March will be released, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) scheduled for Wednesday and the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Thursday. Prices are projected to have risen by 0.3% in March, while year-over-year CPI is expected to be up just over 5%. The PPI is anticipated to remain unchanged from last month, with an annual increase of 3.1%.

The U.S. Census Bureau will report on March retail sales on Friday, providing a key update on consumer spending. Sales are projected to have fallen by 0.4% last month and are expected to rise 4% to 6% this year.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank Spring 2023 annual meetings will begin on Monday in Washington D.C. These events will gather global leaders to discuss issues such as the world economic outlook, poverty eradication, economic development, and aid effectiveness.

 

zion national park 1

[Photo: Zion National Park, USA – See my full travel photo log!]

 

For our weekly market wrap, we go through some of the trade calls and analysis from last week, which gives us valuable insights for the week ahead.

We cover 3 main markets with a total of 200+ counters, so we will never run out of trading opportunities:

By covering a broad range of markets, we can focus our attention (and capital) on whichever market currently gives the best returns.

Click here to receive all these signals in real-time for only $67 a month! You will get several signals a day, and even taking just 1 trade the whole month can easily cover the fee, so what are you waiting for?

 

Weekly Market Outlook Video

Trading Signals Weekly Market Outlook 020423

Weekly Market Outlook (02 April 2023)

📌 Markets seem to be expecting Fed cutting rates in Q3 this year (4 months time)
📌 Stock markets are bullish in the short-run
📌 USD is weakening, while Gold & Crypto (ETH breakout) is gaining strength
📌 GPB is bullish while CAD is bearish
📌 Looking to accumulate long-term bonds (TLT) in my portfolio
📌 Bearish on Crude Oil and Commodities

 

Portfolio Highlights

Trading Signals weekly portfolio 020423

Weekly Portfolio Updates (2 April 2023)

Even though stocks rallied slightly, bonds (TLT) rallied as well, providing a buffer against our short positions.

I also decided to add some commodity (DBC) short positions, since I don’t think this oil rally is sustainable if demand drops.

 

Forex & Commodities Market Highlights

Trading Signals AUDCAD 060423

AUDCAD – Finally the TP is hit, giving a whooping profit of 350+ pips! Congrats to all who took the trade! 💰🔥💪🏻

 

Trading Signals AUDNZD 060423

AUDNZD – Breaking down from range, in line with the downtrend. Probably heading to test prior lows.

 

Trading Signals CADCHF 060423

CADCHF – Following up on this, it is the 2nd time pricing are testing the neckline.

 

Trading Signals EURCAD 060423

EURCAD – Following up on this, and what I said in the video, the pullback after the breakout is a good low-risk entry.

 

Trading Signals GBPCAD 060423

GBPCAD – Great low-risk opportunity for a long trade.

 

Trading Signals WTICOUSD 060423

Crude Oil (WTICOUSD) – Prices spiked up due to production cuts, but the overall trend is still down.

If prices close back down into the price channel, the downtrend is likely to continue.

I am looking for shorting opportunities on this, and commodity ETFs like DBC.

 

Stock & Bond Market Highlights

Trading Signals US100 060423

NASDAQ 100 (US100) – There might be enough momentum to push it to test the prior swing high, but don’t see much more bullish catalysts for it to break above that.

Also seeing some price divergence on the RSI.

 

Trading Signals 3 month relative peformance 020423

3 months relative performance.

 

Trading Signals banks 060423

Top U.S. banks by uninsured deposits.

 

Trading Signals stock indexed performance 040423

 

 

Crypto Market Highlights

Trading Signals ETHUSD 060423

Ethereum (ETHUSD) – Breakout of small ascending triangle, looking to gun for $2000. 🚀

 

 

Click here to receive all these signals in real-time for only $67 a month! You will get several signals a day, and even taking just 1 trade the whole month can easily cover the fee, so what are you waiting for?

 

2022 10 02 16 22 35

Last quarter, markets grappled with the unintended consequences of pandemic-related decisions, including high inflation and an unanticipated banking crisis. This crisis resulted from aggressive lending, a two-tiered stress test system, and a sharp rise in interest rates impacting bond prices.

Inflation remains persistently high, and the likelihood of a recession has increased. Despite these concerns, the stock market ended Q1 2023 up approximately 6%. The market is currently factoring in a mild recession, a lessening of inflation, and the expectation that the banking crisis will be managed and contained.

However, rising international tensions present a wild card that could quickly shift the market’s outlook.

In the upcoming week, investors should watch inflation, the banking crisis, and any developments related to international tensions, while remaining patient as long-term investors.

For more real-time updates and trading opportunities, check out our “Daily Trading Signals” Telegram channel!

 

2022 10 02 16 22 35

[Photo: Antalya, Turkey – See my full travel photo log!]

For our weekly market wrap, we go through some of the trade calls and analysis from last week, which gives us valuable insights for the week ahead.

We cover 3 main markets with a total of 200+ counters, so we will never run out of trading opportunities:

By covering a broad range of markets, we can focus our attention (and capital) on whichever market currently gives the best returns.

Click here to receive all these signals in real-time for only $67 a month! You will get several signals a day, and even taking just 1 trade the whole month can easily cover the fee, so what are you waiting for?

 

Weekly Market Outlook Video

Trading Signals weekly market outlook 280323 1

Weekly Market Outlook (26 March 2023)

📌 Markets seem to be expecting a quick crash/recession followed by Fed cutting rates in Q3 this year
📌 Stock markets are confused
📌 USD is weakening, while Gold & Crypto is gaining strength
📌 Looking to accumulate long-term bonds (TLT) in my portfolio
📌 Bearish on Crude Oil and Commodities

 

Portfolio Highlights

Trading Signals Portfolio 280323

Weekly Portfolio Updates (26 March 2023)

Added more bonds (TLT) to my portfolio.

 

Trading Signals Assets performance 280323

Some of the top performing assets in the past few months. First Citizens shares jumped 45% yesterday upon its buyout of SVB. 🤯

 

Forex & Commodities Market Highlights

Trading Signals EURAUD 290323

EURAUD – Following up on the H4 chart of our previous buy signal, it has now locked in 300+ pips profit!

Congrats to those who took the trade! 💰🔥💪🏻

 

Trading Signals commodities ETF 280323

Commodities ETF (DBC) – Following up, prices have pulled back to test the breakout level of the descending triangle.

Watch closely for shorting opportunities when the short-term price action turns bearish.

 

Stock & Bond Market Highlights

Trading Signals SP500 300323

S&P 500 (US500) – Prices have been creeping up slowly, but volume has been drying up.

 

Trading Signals TLT bond 280323

US 20-yr Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) – If the Fed is not going to raise interest rates much more, then it is very unlikely for this to break new lows.

In fact, the market is expecting the Fed to start cutting rates in Q3 or Q4 this year, which would mean higher bond prices.

My plan is to gradually accumulate this and hold it till the end of the year.

 

Trading Signals most sectors negative 280323

In the past month, most sectors and indices are negative, including the 5 leading sectors.

 

Trading Signals BTC explode 260323

Breaking: Credit Default Swaps (CDS), insurance on default on Chrales Schwab EXPLODE.

 

Crypto Market Highlights

Trading Signals ETHUSD 280323

Ethereum (ETHUSD) – Prices finding some support here.

 

Trading Signals Binance 290323

Is Binance the Next Collapse?

 

 

Click here to receive all these signals in real-time for only $67 a month! You will get several signals a day, and even taking just 1 trade the whole month can easily cover the fee, so what are you waiting for?