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Market analysis, insights and trading ideas on various markets and products!

Spencer Li

US-China Finalizing Phase One of Trade Deal – Will We See New Highs?

Market Analysis
SP 500 261019 1

In the news, U.S. and Chinese officials are “close to finalizing” some parts of a trade agreement after high-level telephone discussions on Friday, the U.S. Trade Representative’s office and China’s Commerce Ministry said.

This seems to bode well for the stock market, with prices already creeping up to test the prior highs.

So will we see new highs? And how bullish are these new highs?

US-China Finalizing Phase One of Trade Deal

Unless there is a drastic turn of events, I am pretty confident we will see new highs.

However, the question of how sustainable these new highs are are more difficult to answer.

For example, there are other factors to consider, such as whether both sides stick to the agreement and the trade war does not escalate again.

There is also the Trump impeachment which is going on.

And there is also the softening of the US economy, which will also affect markets negatively.

So it is a matter of balancing the positive and negative catalysts, and deciding which are more important in the short-run and long-run.

Unfortunately, I am not seeing many long-term positive catalysts.

0 Comments/by Spencer Li
https://synapsetrading.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/SP-500-261019-1.png 948 1642 Spencer Li https://synapsetrading.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/logo.jpg Spencer Li2019-10-26 20:52:012022-03-07 16:09:17US-China Finalizing Phase One of Trade Deal – Will We See New Highs?
Spencer Li

Bitcoin Spikes up $2500 in One Day – Any Reasons Why?

Market Analysis
usdjpy 092210

Yesterday, we saw an incredible spike in Bitcoin of close to $2500, which is 40+% move.

Even though price has corrected slightly, it is currently still up by about 30% from its recent lows.

Bitcoin Spikes

Although no one really knows the reason for such a sudden move, many people have attributed it to remarks by the Chinese President, Xi Jinping, who said the country needs to “seize the opportunity” afforded by blockchain technology.

Speaking as part of the 18th collective study of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee on Thursday in Beijing,  he said that blockchain technology has a wide array of applications within China, listing topics ranging from financing businesses to mass transit and poverty alleviation.

Although he was talking about Blockchain technology rather than cryptocurrencies, traders seem to have felt that it would still have a positive effect, at least based on what the market is reflecting.

For a technical perspective, the chart is starting to look more bullish medium/long-term, with the breakout of the falling wedge pattern.

0 Comments/by Spencer Li
https://synapsetrading.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/09/usdjpy-092210.png 308 400 Spencer Li https://synapsetrading.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/logo.jpg Spencer Li2019-10-26 20:34:412022-03-07 13:05:53Bitcoin Spikes up $2500 in One Day – Any Reasons Why?
Spencer Li

Tesla Shares Spike 21% on Earnings Surprise

Market Analysis
usdjpy 092210

Tesla recently posted a cash balance increase to $5.3 billion and reported a profit of $1.86 per share, shattering analyst expectations for a loss of 42 cents per share.

Elon Musk promised a 2020 rollout of a cheaper SUV and more self-driving technology to stay ahead of larger rivals rushing into the premium electric vehicle market he created.

 

Tesla Shares Spike 21% on Earnings Surprise

 

Looking at the chart of Tesla, we can see that it traded between the range of $250-$390 for almost 2 years (mid 2017 to mid 2019), before breaking to test a major support level at $180.

From there, it has made a strong recovery, with a whooping 70% gain from its June 2019 bottom.

Now, prices are close to $300, and it looks poised to test the highs of $390 again.

I will continue to hold and look for opportunities to accumulate more again.

0 Comments/by Spencer Li
https://synapsetrading.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/09/usdjpy-092210.png 308 400 Spencer Li https://synapsetrading.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/logo.jpg Spencer Li2019-10-25 18:59:352022-03-07 16:11:18Tesla Shares Spike 21% on Earnings Surprise
Spencer Li

Oil Prices Spike After Attack on Saudi Arabia Facilities

Market Analysis
crude oil 170919

Yesterday, oil prices spiked after crude oil facilities located in Saudi Arabia was attacked by terrorists, shutting down up to 5% of global crude oil output.

This was a large 10-20% move in prices, and was an easy trade to ride on the trend and momentum.

 

Oil Prices Spike After Attack on Saudi Arabia Facilities

There were 3 entry opportunities, 2 of which were flagged out in our “Daily Trading Signals”.

 

Daily Trading Signals

If you are inside our Free Telegram Channel, you would have seen that Crude Oil (WTIUSD) is currently on a weak bull trend, which means that we should be looking for opportunities to go long and ride on the uptrend.

 

Daily Trading Signals 2

For those subscribed to our premium “Daily Trading Signals”, the precise signal for entry came at 6.00am, when prices made a new 44-day high, and within 3 minutes had spiked to an 83-day high.

There are usually 5-10 trading signals a day, or even more, but the important thing is to trade consistently on the signals and manage your risk well, so that you can take advantage of all these opportunities.

Good luck, and trade well!

0 Comments/by Spencer Li
https://synapsetrading.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/crude-oil-170919.png 947 1571 Spencer Li https://synapsetrading.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/logo.jpg Spencer Li2019-09-17 00:47:572022-03-07 16:12:52Oil Prices Spike After Attack on Saudi Arabia Facilities
Spencer Li

NDR 2018: High Cost of Living in Singapore A Major Concern?

Market Analysis
ndr 2018
ndr-2018

Image source: Mediacorp

During this year’s National Day Rally, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong talked about how Singaporeans will have to make some lifestyle changes and adapt to ease the pressures of the high cost of living in Singapore, as well as some of the government initiatives to help citizens cope.

Here are some of the major issues:

1. Cost of Housing

  • Currently, 80% of Singaporeans live in HDB flats, of which the downpayment can be made using CPF, making it affordable for most people to own a house.
  • The Home Improvement Programme aims to improve flats when they are about 60-70 years old, and will be extended to 230,000 flats in various estates. The new scheme is designed to make it easy for authorities to redevelop old estates over a long period, by subsidizing maintenance and repair costs for aging flats.
  • Owners of older HDB Flats will also get an opportunity to go en bloc before their leases run out as part of a new scheme dubbed Voluntary Early Redevelopment Scheme (VERS). Eligible residents will have a chance to decide whether the government can take back their flats once the leases clock the 70-year mark. This will allow the government to buy back their flats earlier, which can then be redeveloped, and the owners can use the cash from the sale to purchase a new house.
  • A 99-year HDB lease is long enough for flats to retain substantial value, and act as a good retirement nest egg for most Singaporeans.
  • For HDB owners whose lease has ended, the government will help them get a new one. Some of the oldest flats are more than 50 years old, which means that there is still 40+ more years before the lease expires.
  • Cooling measures have been taken to prevent excessive speculation of property prices in the private property market.

2. Cost of Healthcare

  • There will be a new health care package that will cater to the needs of people born in the 1950’s. Dubbed ‘The Merdeka Generation’ Package, the new scheme will cover areas such as outpatient subsidies as well MediSave top-Ups, payouts on long-term care and subsidies for MediShield Life.
  • The Community Health Assist Scheme (CHAS) which provides health care services for middle and lower income people will now also cover chronic medical conditions.
  • There will be new polyclinics in Sembawang, Eunos, Kallang and Bukit Panjang by 2020; and in Nee Soon Central, Tampines North by 2023

3. Cost of Utilities

  • With regard to the recent price hikes in electricity, the current prices are actually still lower as compared to 10 years ago.
  • As Singapore is not an oil producing country, fixing electricity tariffs may incur more cost in the long-run, hence is not a viable solution.
  • Instead, government initiatives such as U-Save will help lower-income Singaporeans with their utility bills.
  • Water prices are not expected to increase as ties with Malaysia are good and the ‘1962 Water Agreement’ remains in place

4. Cost of Food

  • The government is planning to increase the number of hawker centres, which is currently the main source of affordable meal options
  • In recent years, there have been 7 new hawker centres built, and we can look forward to 13 more in the coming years.
  • Will there be a new generation of hawkers to take over from the old retiring hawkers?

According to the EIU annual ranking, Singapore has been dubbed the world’s most expensive city to live in (for expats) for the fifth year running.

This could mean a stable economy and high standards of living, but it could also represent income inequality and a struggling lower income demographic.

It is a good sign that the government does not shy away from discussing such issues, and actively comes up with schemes to help citizens cope.

But the bigger question is whether such initiatives solve the root problem, or are merely stop-gap measures.

0 Comments/by Spencer Li
https://synapsetrading.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/ndr-2018.png 529 991 Spencer Li https://synapsetrading.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/logo.jpg Spencer Li2018-08-21 07:39:512022-03-15 17:27:04NDR 2018: High Cost of Living in Singapore A Major Concern?
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