Market analysis, insights and trading ideas on various markets and products!

The volume-weighted average price (VWAP) is a technical analysis indicator used on intraday charts that resets at the start of each new trading session.

It represents the average price at which a security has traded throughout the day, taking into account both price and volume.

VWAP is important because it provides traders with insight into both the price trend and the value of a security.

Understanding the Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)

VWAP is calculated by summing the dollars traded for each transaction (price multiplied by volume) and then dividing that by the total shares traded.

Formula

The formula for VWAP is:

VWAP = (Cumulative Typical Price × Volume) / Cumulative Volume

Where:

  • Typical Price = (High Price + Low Price + Closing Price) / 3
  • Cumulative = Total trades since the trading session opened

How to Calculate VWAP

Although adding the VWAP indicator to a streaming chart automates the calculation, here’s how to calculate it manually.

  1. Determine the average price the stock traded at during the first five-minute period of the day. Add the high, low, and close, then divide by three. Multiply this by the volume for that period, and record the result in a spreadsheet under “PV” (price and volume).
  2. Divide PV by the volume for that period to get VWAP.
  3. Continue adding the PV value from each period to the prior values and divide the total by the total volume up to that point to maintain the VWAP throughout the day.

How Is VWAP Used?

Traders use VWAP in various ways.

They may treat it as a trend confirmation tool, considering prices below VWAP as undervalued and prices above it as overvalued.

For instance, if a stock price moves above VWAP, traders may go long on the stock, and if it moves below, they may sell or go short.

Institutional buyers also use VWAP to minimize market impact by trying to buy below VWAP or sell above it, ensuring their actions don’t artificially move the stock price.

VWAP vs. Simple Moving Average

VWAP and simple moving average (SMA) may look alike on a chart, but they differ in calculation.

VWAP incorporates both price and volume, while SMA only incorporates price.

The SMA is calculated by averaging the closing prices over a specific period, while VWAP accounts for volume-weighted prices.

Limitations of VWAP

  1. VWAP is a single-day indicator that resets each day, making it difficult to use over extended periods.
  2. While useful, VWAP should not be the only factor considered, as in strong uptrends, waiting for prices to fall below VWAP could result in missed opportunities.
  3. VWAP is based on historical values, making it a lagging indicator with increasing lag as the day progresses.

What Does VWAP Tell You?

VWAP helps traders gauge liquidity and the price at which buyers and sellers agree.

It offers insight into price movement throughout the day and can guide trading decisions.

Why Is the Volume-Weighted Average Price Important?

VWAP provides a smoothed view of a security’s price, adjusted for volume, helping institutional traders execute orders without significantly affecting the stock’s price.

For example, a hedge fund may avoid buying above VWAP to prevent inflating the price or selling below VWAP to avoid dragging down the price.

Is VWAP a Leading Indicator?

No, VWAP is a lagging indicator since it uses historical data.

It is valuable for specific uses, but it does not offer real-time insights for traders seeking up-to-the-minute data.

Concluding Thoughts

VWAP is a valuable tool in technical analysis for determining the average price of a security during a single trading session.

While useful for tracking intraday price trends and liquidity, it is a lagging indicator best utilized in conjunction with other tools for more comprehensive market analysis.

Volume refers to the total amount of a security or item that is traded over time, typically within a trading day.

For instance, the number of shares exchanged between a stock’s daily open and close is known as its trading volume.

Technical traders rely heavily on key information like trading volume and changes in volume over time to make informed decisions.

Importance of High Volume

High volume signals increased interest in the stock, indicating the active presence of buyers and sellers.

When a stock is in an uptrend and volume increases, this suggests that the stock will continue rising, as more buyers are interested in acquiring it.

Similarly, when a stock is in a downtrend and volume increases, it signals that the stock will continue declining, as more sellers are looking to offload it.

This behavior can be clearly seen in the daily chart of Reliance Ltd., where rising volumes lead to increasing stock prices.

Importance of Low Volume

Low volume indicates a lack of interest in the stock.

When a stock is moving up but volume decreases, it suggests that buyers are losing interest, potentially signaling a reversal of the uptrend.

Similarly, when a stock is declining and volume drops, it implies that sellers are losing interest, possibly indicating a reversal of the downtrend.

Price Volume What is Expected
Up Up Bullish
Up Down Caution – weak hands buying
Down Up Bearish
Down Down Caution – weak hands selling

Types of Volume Indicators

  1. On-Balance Volume (OBV): OBV is a cumulative indicator that sums up volume on up days and subtracts volume on down days. It helps gauge buying and selling pressure.
  2. Volume RSI: Similar to the Relative Strength Index (RSI), Volume RSI uses up-volume and down-volume to provide trading signals based on crossovers around the 50% center line.
  3. Volume Price Trend (VPT) Indicator: VPT assesses both price direction and the strength of price changes, helping traders confirm trends or detect divergences between price and volume.
  4. Money Flow Index (MFI): This indicator measures trading pressure using both price and volume, and is similar to RSI but volume-weighted.
  5. Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) Indicator: CMF evaluates market strength by measuring money flow volume over a period, typically 20 to 21 days, and can help confirm breakout directions.
  6. Accumulation/Distribution Line: This indicator tracks the cumulative flow of money into or out of a stock, helping identify divergences that signal future price movements.
  7. Ease of Movement (EMV): EMV measures how easily a stock price moves between levels based on volume trends, often used in volatile markets.
  8. Negative Volume Index (NVI): NVI focuses on days with declining volume, assuming that smart money is active on those days, and can indicate bull or bear markets.
  9. Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP): VWAP shows the average price of a security throughout a session, incorporating both price and volume, helping traders assess whether a security was bought or sold at a fair price.

Concluding Thoughts

Volume analysis is a critical aspect of technical trading, providing insight into market trends and potential reversals.

By using volume indicators like OBV, VWAP, and MFI, traders can enhance their ability to interpret price movements and refine their trading strategies.

Understanding the relationship between price and volume is essential for making informed decisions in the stock market.

The Ichimoku Cloud is a collection of technical indicators that show support and resistance levels, as well as momentum and trend direction.

It does this by taking multiple averages and plotting them on a chart.

It also uses these figures to compute a “cloud” that attempts to forecast where the price may find support or resistance in the future.

The Ichimoku Cloud was developed by Goichi Hosoda, a Japanese journalist, and published in the late 1960s.

It provides more data points than the standard candlestick chart.

While it seems complicated at first glance, those familiar with how to read the charts often find it easy to understand with well-defined trading signals.

The Formulas for the Ichimoku Cloud

The following are the five formulas for the lines that comprise the Ichimoku Cloud indicator:

Conversion Line (tenkan sen) = (9-PH + 9-PL) ÷ 2
Base Line (kijun sen) = (26-PH + 26-PL) ÷ 2
Leading Span A (senkou span A) = (CL + Base Line) ÷ 2
Leading Span B (senkou span B) = (52-PH + 52-PL) ÷ 2
Lagging Span (chikou span) = Close plotted 26 periods in the past

Where:
PH = Period high
PL = Period low
CL = Conversion line

How to Calculate the Ichimoku Cloud

The highs and lows are the highest and lowest prices seen during the period—for example, the highest and lowest prices seen over the last nine days in the case of the conversion line.

Adding the Ichimoku Cloud indicator to your chart will do the calculations for you, but if you want to calculate it by hand, here are the steps:

  1. Calculate the Conversion Line and the Base Line.
  2. Calculate Leading Span A based on the prior calculations. Once calculated, this data point is plotted 26 periods into the future.
  3. Calculate Leading Span B. Plot this data point 26 periods into the future.
  4. For the Lagging Span, plot the closing price 26 periods into the past on the chart.
  5. The difference between Leading Span A and Leading Span B is colored in to create the cloud.
  6. When Leading Span A is above Leading Span B, color the cloud green. When Leading Span A is below Leading Span B, color the cloud red.

The above steps will create one data point.

To create the lines, as each period comes to an end, go through the steps again to create new data points for that period.

Connect the data points to each other to create the lines and cloud appearance.

What Does the Ichimoku Cloud Tell You?

The technical indicator shows relevant information at a glance by using averages.

The overall trend is up when the price is above the cloud, down when the price is below the cloud, and trendless or transitioning when the price is in the cloud.

When Leading Span A is rising and above Leading Span B, this helps to confirm the uptrend, and the space between the lines is typically colored green.

When Leading Span A is falling and below Leading Span B, this helps confirm the downtrend.

The space between the lines is typically colored red in this case.

Traders will often use the Ichimoku Cloud as an area of support and resistance depending on the relative location of the price.

The cloud provides support/resistance levels that can be projected into the future.

This sets the Ichimoku Cloud apart from many other technical indicators that only provide support and resistance levels for the current date and time.

Traders should use the Ichimoku Cloud in conjunction with other technical indicators to maximize their risk-adjusted returns.

For example, the indicator is often paired with the relative strength index (RSI), which can be used to confirm momentum in a certain direction.

It’s also important to look at the bigger trends to see how the smaller trends fit within them.

For example, during a very strong downtrend, the price may push into the cloud or slightly above it temporarily before falling again.

Only focusing on the indicator would mean missing the bigger picture that the price was under strong longer-term selling pressure.

Crossovers are another way that the indicator can be used.

Watch for the conversion line to move above the base line, especially when the price is above the cloud.

This can be a powerful buy signal.

One option is to hold the trade until the conversion line drops back below the base line.

Any of the other lines could be used as exit points as well.

The Difference Between the Ichimoku Cloud and Moving Averages

While the Ichimoku Cloud uses averages, they are different than a typical moving average.

Simple moving averages take closing prices, add them up, and divide that total by how many closing prices there are.

In a 10-period moving average, the closing prices for the last 10 periods are added, then divided by 10 to get the average.

Notice how the calculations for the Ichimoku Cloud are different.

They are based on highs and lows over a period and then divided by two.

Therefore, Ichimoku averages will be different from traditional moving averages, even if the same number of periods are used.

One indicator is not better than another; they just provide information in different ways.

Limitations of Using the Ichimoku Cloud

The indicator can make a chart look busy with all the lines.

To remedy this, most charting software allows certain lines to be hidden.

For example, all of the lines can be hidden except for Leading Span A and Leading Span B, which create the cloud.

Each trader needs to focus on which lines provide the most information, then consider hiding the rest if all of the lines are distracting.

Another limitation of the Ichimoku Cloud is that it is based on historical data.

While two of these data points are plotted in the future, there is nothing in the formula that is inherently predictive.

Averages are simply being plotted in the future.

The cloud can also become irrelevant for long periods of time, as the price remains way above or way below it.

At times like these, the conversion line, the base line, and their crossovers become more important, as they generally stick closer to the price.

Concluding Thoughts

The Ichimoku Cloud is a versatile tool for traders, providing information on support and resistance levels, trend direction, and momentum at a glance.

While it may initially seem complex, its well-defined trading signals make it accessible once understood.

However, like any technical indicator, the Ichimoku Cloud has its limitations, particularly when used in isolation.

It is most effective when combined with other indicators and risk management strategies to create a well-rounded approach to market analysis.

Commonly called STARC Bands, Stoller Average Range Channel Bands, developed by Manning Stoller, are two bands applied above and below a simple moving average (SMA) of an asset’s price.

The upper band is created by adding the value of the average true range (ATR), or a multiple of it.

The lower band is created by subtracting the value of the ATR from the SMA.

The channel created by the bands can provide traders with ideas on when to buy or sell.

During an overall uptrend, buying near the lower band and selling near the top band is favorable.

STARC bands can provide insight for both ranging and trending markets.

The Formula for Stoller Average Range Channel (STARC) Bands

STARC Band + = SMA + (Multiplier × ATR)
STARC Band – = SMA − (Multiplier × ATR)

Where:
SMA = Simple moving average, with length typically between five and 10 periods
ATR = Average True Range
Multiplier = Factor to apply to ATR – two is common but can be adjusted for personal preference

How to Calculate STARC Bands

  1. Choose an SMA length. Five to 10 periods are common for STARC Bands.
  2. Choose an ATR multiple. Two times ATR is common, although this can be adjusted as needed.
  3. Calculate the SMA.
  4. Calculate the ATR, and then multiply it by the multiple chosen.
  5. Add the ATR x multiple to the SMA to get STARC Band+.
  6. Subtract the ATR x multiple from the SMA to get STARC Band-.
  7. Calculate the new values as each period ends.

What Do STARC Bands Tell You?

STARC bands are a type of envelope channel that provides potential support and resistance levels.

The top band is considered to show the security’s resistance price level, and the bottom band is considered to show the security’s support price level.

The basic trading strategy is to sell when the security’s price is near the resistance band and buy when the security’s price is near the support band.

Favor this strategy when the price is in an overall uptrend or when the price is ranging.

When the price is in an overall downtrend, favor shorting near the upper resistance band and covering near the lower support band.

One thing to be aware of is that the price can move along a band for extended periods of time.

This may mean a trade that looks good at the moment could turn out to be quite poor as the price continues to move along the band.

For example, imagine selling a long position when the price reaches the upper band, only to watch as the price and upper band continue to move higher for some time.

Traders can use various average true range multipliers to influence the width of the bands.

The larger the multiple, the wider the bands.

The smaller the multiple, the tighter the bands.

Longer-term traders may prefer wider bands, while shorter-term traders may prefer narrow bands to potentially catch more trading opportunities.

Difference Between STARC Bands and Bollinger Bands®

STARC bands and Bollinger Bands® are similar in that they create bands around a simple moving average.

STARC bands add and subtract an ATR multiple to form the bands.

Bollinger Bands® add and subtract a standard deviation multiple to form the upper and lower bands.

The interpretation of the bands is similar, but the calculations are different.

Therefore, the two indicators will look slightly different on a chart.

Limitations of Using STARC Bands

While STARC bands can be used to signal potential trading opportunities near the bands, the main problem is that the bands are always moving.

Buying near the lower band may look good, but if the lower band and price keep dropping, then the signal provided was poor.

This will happen frequently, as the price will reach a band, but then the band keeps moving in that direction.

To help remedy this issue, utilize stop losses when taking trades near the bands, as this will help control risk if the price keeps moving against the position.

Also, instead of taking profits when the price reaches a band, consider a tight trailing stop loss instead.

This allows for the price to continue moving along the band, which increases profit.

If the price does reverse, a profit is still locked in.

Concluding Thoughts

STARC bands can be a useful tool in technical analysis, providing traders with insight into potential support and resistance levels in both trending and ranging markets.

However, traders should be cautious of the limitations, as the moving bands can lead to poor signals if the price continues to move in the direction of the band.

Combining STARC bands with other technical indicators and using stop-loss strategies can help traders maximize their profits and manage risk effectively.

Bollinger Bands, a popular tool among investors and traders, helps gauge the volatility of stocks and other securities to determine if they are over- or undervalued.

Developed in the 1980s by financial analyst John Bollinger, the bands appear on stock charts as three lines that move with the price.

The center line is the stock price’s 20-day simple moving average (SMA).

The upper and lower bands are set at a certain number of standard deviations, usually two, above and below the middle line.

The bands widen when a stock’s price becomes more volatile and contract when it is more stable.

Many traders see stocks as overbought as their price nears the upper band and oversold as they approach the lower band, signaling an opportune time to trade.

While valuable, Bollinger Bands are a secondary indicator that is best used to confirm other analysis methods.

Below, we guide you through how to interpret Bollinger Bands, when the tool is best used, and what other indicators are best matched with it.

Who Is John Bollinger?

John Bollinger, CFA, CMT, has been a major influence in technical analysis and is best known for developing Bollinger Bands in the 1980s.

Bollinger combined his background in mathematics and engineering with financial market analysis to create this tool, which uses a moving average and the statistical measure of standard deviation to assess the volatility and trends of stock prices.

The tool has since become a staple in technical analysis.

He is also the founder of Bollinger Capital Management, a money management company, and has been a prominent commentator and analyst on market conditions.

Constructing Bollinger Bands

The three lines that make up Bollinger Bands are based on a security’s price moves.

The center line is the intermediate-term trend and is typically a 20-day SMA of the closing prices.

The upper and lower bands are plotted a distance from the SMA set by a certain number of standard deviations, usually two, above and below the center line.

To calculate the bands, you first determine the number of periods used for both the SMA and standard deviation, and the number of standard deviations for the upper and lower bands should be from the center line.

While the settings can be adjusted based on your strategy, most times, you would use a 20-day SMA and two standard deviations.

The upper band is found by adding two standard deviations to the center SMA line, while the lower band is calculated by subtracting two standard deviations from the center line.

The bands automatically widen when price volatility increases and narrow when volatility goes down.

Many popular trading platforms, like TradingView, include this technical indicator as a standard feature.

You can easily overlay Bollinger Bands onto price charts.

You can also usually customize the Bollinger Bands’ settings (increasing or lowering the periods and standard deviations) to fit your needs.

Given that the bands are plotted two standard deviations away from the SMA, they can indicate when prices are statistically high or low.

Many traders consider the area near the upper band to be overbought territory—the price is poised to fall—and a potential resistance level where sellers may step in.

Conversely, the area near the lower band is often seen as oversold—the price is poised to go up—and a potential support level where buyers could enter the market.

How To Trade With Bollinger Bands

Option traders and investors use Bollinger Bands to assess market volatility and identify potential entry and exit points.

The tool is premised on the idea that prices tend to remain within the bands’ upper and lower limits.

One use is for trend analysis.

The direction of the middle band can indicate a trend’s strength: when the middle band is heading upward, this suggests an uptrend, and the converse when heading downward.

In addition, the width of the bands reflects market volatility.

Narrow bands indicate less volatility, which means a significant price move could be imminent.

This is known as a “squeeze.”

Conversely, wide bands indicate more volatility.

Another way to use the tool is to figure out when an asset is overbought and oversold.

As the price touches or moves outside the upper band, it could be overbought, suggesting a potential selling or short opportunity.

Similarly, if the price touches or falls outside the lower band, the asset may be oversold, indicating a possible buying opportunity.

The bands can also help find price targets.

For instance, after a price “bounces” off the lower band, the upper band becomes a potential exit point if the price trend reverses.

Likewise, after a price move that touches the upper bands, the lower band becomes a possible target if a reversal occurs.

Another strategy is called the “Bollinger Bounce.”

This is based on the idea that prices tend to return to the middle band.

Traders may buy or sell based on the rebound from the upper or lower bands toward the middle band, especially in a ranging market.

Below is a table of different ways the Bollinger Bands can move, what they indicate, and how traders often react.

We then go through these moves in more detail so you understand the strategies better.

Bollinger Bands Cheat Sheet

Bollinger Band Action What This Indicates Potential Reaction
Upward middle band Indicates an uptrend Buy or hold long positions
Downward middle band Suggests a downtrend Sell or hold short positions
Narrow bands (squeeze) Less volatility; potential for significant price move Prepare for a breakout; consider entry points
Price touching or moving outside the upper band Potentially overbought (poised to fall in price) Consider selling, shorting, or tightening stop-loss orders
Price touching or falling outside the lower band Potentially oversold (poised to go up) Buying or tightening stop-loss orders

Signals at the Upper Band

By examining the relationship between the price and the upper band, you can look for overbought conditions, check for potential price reversals or a slowdown in momentum, find out when volatility is expanding, set price targets based on mean reversion strategies, and determine the strength of a trend.

When the price touches or pushes through the upper band, this is often read as the security being overbought.

This is because the asset is priced higher than its typical valuation range, indicating a potential reversal or slowdown in momentum.

When the price reaches or goes above the upper band, this indicates increased volatility.

Since Bollinger Bands adjusts to volatility, a widening gap between the upper and lower bands means that the market is experiencing wider price fluctuations, which could be due to economic and market news, earnings reports, and other market events.

For investors using mean reversion strategies, the upper band can act as a price target in a ranging market.

If the price oscillates between the upper and lower bands without a clear trend, hitting the upper band can signal to sell or go short because traders expect the price to move back toward the middle band or below.

In addition, when there’s a strong uptrend, the price might repeatedly touch or stay above the upper band for extended periods.

This persistence above the upper band might indicate strong buyer enthusiasm and signal that the trend is likely to continue.

However, traders and investors often look to confirm this with other indicators or techniques.

The upper band can also be the site for a breakout.

A price move that starts at the upper band and continues to push outside of it can signal one, especially if there’s been an increase in trading volume.

This indicates that the asset is starting a new trend or accelerating an existing one.

You could use this signal to trade in the direction of the breakout.

Signals at the Lower Band

The lower band of the Bollinger Bands helps identify oversold conditions.

It is also a reference line for those using mean reversion strategies or looking for potential reversals.

If prices stay below this band, this could mean the start of a new bearish trend, especially if there’s a lot of trading volume.

When the price of an asset touches or falls below the lower band, this could mean the asset is undervalued or that the selling pressure has gone too far, potentially leading to a reversal or pause in the downward trend.

Just as touching the upper band signals an increase in volatility, the price reaching the lower band indicates greater volatility in the context of a downward move.

However, when the bands narrow after a period of wide fluctuation, there’s decreased volatility, which might mean a significant price move as the price consolidates.

For investors employing mean reversion strategies or looking for bounce-back opportunities, the lower band can be used as a target for buying prospects.

The rationale is that if the price has moved down to the lower band, it might rebound toward the middle band or higher, especially in a ranging market without a strong downtrend.

If the price stays below the lower band, this signals a strong downtrend.

Continual contact with the band or new lows below could indicate the bearish sentiment is strong and likely to continue.

However, you should confirm this with other indicators to avoid false signals or traps.

A decisive move below the lower band can signify a breakdown or the start of a new bearish trend, especially if the volume is high and there are other bearish signals.

Since further declines could occur, you can use this as a potential signal to sell or enter a short position.

What Widening Bands Mean

When the bands widen, this signals an increase in volatility because the standard deviation of the price increases.

Thus, the price moves are more significant than in the recent past.

Economic announcements, earnings reports, geopolitical events, or sudden shifts in market sentiment can be behind these changes.

Traders see increased volatility as an opportunity for substantial gains and a risk of greater losses.

The widening of the bands could signal the beginning of a substantial price trend.

As volatility increases, the chance of a significant and sustained price move in one direction also increases.

However, you should confirm this with other indicators or price patterns before proceeding.

When the bands widen after a period of contraction during a “squeeze,” many consider this a sign that a breakout is about to occur.

While the bands themselves do not indicate the direction of the breakout, investors can assess the potential direction by comparing the price’s movement to the bands and other indicators.

The increased volatility signaled by widening Bollinger Bands might prompt investors to reassess their risk management strategies.

They might cut their positions or diversify their holdings to manage the higher risk associated with greater price fluctuations.

What Tightening Bands Mean

A contraction of the bands suggests that the market is experiencing less volatility.

Price movements are more contained, and there may be less trading volume or market interest in the short term.

This reduced volatility period can be seen as a time of consolidation.

While tightening bands indicate less volatility, market analysts often consider this a precursor to major price moves or breakouts.

Traders monitor squeezes closely since they suggest the market is building energy for a significant change.

The longer the squeeze, the more potent the subsequent breakout is expected to be.

This is based on the principle that periods of low volatility are frequently followed by periods of high volatility.

However, this doesn’t mean you’ll know where the breakout will head.

During a tightening period, traders may adjust their risk management strategies, such as pulling in stop-loss orders to reflect lower volatility while preparing for a potential increase ahead.

The tightening of Bollinger Bands could also mean there’s no consensus among market participants about the future direction of the price.

This indecision can result in the price oscillating within a tighter range until new information arrives or the market forces a breakout.

Concluding Thoughts

Bollinger Bands is a versatile technical analysis tool that can provide greater clarity about market volatility and price trends.

By framing price movements with upper and lower boundaries set at standard deviations around a central moving average, the indicator adapts to volatility in real-time, offering a visual representation of how prices are moving relative to historical norms.

While it’s valuable for highlighting potential reversals, breakouts, and trend strengths, Bollinger Bands is usually more effective when used with other indicators and methods.