Spencer Li

Weekly Market Wrap: High Interest Rates are Here to Stay?

Thumbnail banner weekly market wrap x3

Thumbnail banner weekly market wrap x3

For subscribers of our “Daily Trading Signals”, we now also include a “Weekly Market Report”, where we provide a weekly deep-dive on the market, including fundamentals, technicals, economics, and portfolio management:

Click here for last week’s market report (18 September 2023)
Click here to subscribe for the latest market report (25 September 2023)
Click here to see the archives of all our past market reports

Market Recap & Upcoming Week

In the realm of technology stocks, a potential dampening in their bright outlook is on the horizon. Central to the 2023 market rally, these stocks now grapple with the prospect of prolonged higher interest rates from the Federal Reserve. Historically, the tech sector thrived not only on industry innovation but also on ultra-low interest rates.

But with the Fed’s response to inflation, this once rosy perspective has shifted. This shift was palpable when the tech sector of the S&P 500 dropped by 29% by the end of 2022. Despite signs of recovery earlier this year, thanks to AI innovations and rate cut speculations, sustained inflation and a strong economy have led to renewed skepticism.

Meanwhile, oil prices inch closer to $100 a barrel, intensifying global inflation concerns. While countries like Saudi Arabia and Russia benefit from this surge, the ramifications for the world economy, particularly inflation and its potential effect on interest rates, are profound.

The Federal Reserve’s strategy took center stage as it continued its stance on steady interest rates, hinting at potential hikes by the year’s end. This decision coincides with their revised economic growth projection, foreseeing a 2.1% GDP rise. As the central bank reduces its bond assets, all eyes are on the future decisions of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).

Despite challenges such as escalating energy prices, the U.S. consumer spending trends suggest economic optimism. Adding to the intrigue, the Federal Reserve expressed an ambitious vision for a historically “soft landing.” With plans for an extended rate-cutting cycle, they aim for controlled inflation without severe economic repercussions.

Yet, this optimistic outlook comes with its set of challenges, as history tells us that rate escalations tend to be gradual but decreases are often abrupt. The Fed’s hope now hinges on a balance between growth and inflation management.

As we move into the upcoming week, market watchers should remain vigilant about the potential shifts in the investment landscape.

Key focus areas include the impending reports on U.S. home prices and data for new and pending home sales in August. These metrics might provide insight into the health and direction of the U.S. housing market. Alongside, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s town hall with educators on Thursday promises to offer significant cues about the central bank’s stance on prevailing economic conditions.

Moreover, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, which is the Fed’s favored measure of inflation, is slated for release on Friday, potentially influencing investment strategies. Amid these macro indicators, a series of earnings reports are due next week from corporate giants, including Costco, Micron Technology, Accenture, Nike, CarMax, and Carnival Cruise Line. These results could offer a snapshot of the business landscape, further guiding investment decisions.

 

trading signals GBPNZD 190923
GBPNZD – Pullback to support level, waiting for price alerts to trigger when the uptrend resumes

 

trading signals EURAUD 190923
EURAUD – Pullback to support area as well, waiting for price alerts to trigger when the uptrend resumes.

 

trading signals BTCUSD 190923
Bitcoin (BTCUSD) – Support levels held once again, will we see a run up soon?

 

trading signals EURAUD 240923
EURAUD – Following up, there is a good strong bullish bar today for entry.

 

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Spencer Li

Weekly Market Wrap: Is Inflation Heading Back Up Again?

Thumbnail banner weekly market wrap x3

Thumbnail banner weekly market wrap x3

For subscribers of our “Daily Trading Signals”, we now also include a “Weekly Market Report”, where we provide a weekly deep-dive on the market, including fundamentals, technicals, economics, and portfolio management:

Click here for last week’s market report (11 September 2023)
Click here to subscribe for the latest market report (18 September 2023)
Click here to see the archives of all our past market reports

Market Recap & Upcoming Week

Last week, the financial landscape exhibited a complex interplay between inflationary pressures and robust market dynamics. Despite concerns over escalating inflation, spearheaded by spiraling fuel costs, the US stock markets experienced an upswing, with investors holding onto optimism bolstered by a strong U.S. consumer base and a steady labor market.

The landscape was further buoyed by a surge in consumer spending in August, reflecting a resilient U.S economy even as suppliers confronted rising costs. However, the European Central Bank took a firm stance against inflation by implementing a historic interest rate hike, leading to significant fluctuations in the Eurozone’s financial sphere. This strategy contrasted with expectations regarding the Federal Reserve’s approach in the upcoming meeting, with anticipations leaning towards a maintenance of the current rates, rather than an increase. Concurrently, the bond market exhibited signs of caution, witnessing yields nearing the high levels last seen during the 2008 crisis.

Elsewhere in the corporate sector, there was a noticeable rally in the stocks of transportation and travel companies, a trend illustrative of the undying consumer penchant for travel despite burgeoning fuel costs. Companies like Norwegian Cruise Lines and Carnival celebrated stock climbs, while Booking Holdings enjoyed a hike in its stock price.

Notably, the market’s reception to the inflation uptick was predominantly positive, with indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite recording substantial gains, a movement tied to the potentially volatile nature of the primary inflation driver – rising fuel costs. Moreover, the global market reactions post the ECB’s rate hike were mixed, inducing a decline in the euro value while catalyzing a rally in the Eurozone bond market, and facilitating gains in the FTSE 100 and Stoxx Europe 50. Moving forward, the financial narrative remains riveted on the pivotal decisions of central banks globally and the consequent market reactions, with a keen eye on the indicators revealing the health of the U.S. and European economies.

This week all eyes are set on the world of finance as both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England gear up for their respective policy meetings. On Tuesday, Federal Reserve policymakers convene for the FOMC meeting, eagerly awaited by investors and market spectators alike, with the potent interest rate decision expected to be revealed on Wednesday.

Adding to the week’s monetary narrative, the Bank of England will be holding its own policy discussion on Thursday, with analysts around the globe anticipating the outcomes and its potential ramifications on the financial markets. In tandem with these pivotal meetings, the economic landscape will be further delineated through updates on the housing market; a sector demonstrating notable dynamism and a pulse on economic health. Details on building permits, housing starts, and existing home sales for August will be unveiled, offering a granular view of the sector’s current standing.

In addition to the governmental economic focus, the corporate sector is also bracing for a notable week with heavy hitters such as FedEx, AutoZone, and General Mills slated to report their earnings. Market analysts and investors will be keenly focusing on these reports to gauge the health and performance of these industry giants amidst the broader economic contexts laid out by the monetary policy decisions.

 

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The Synapse Network

Limitations of Technical Indicators (Why Do Trading Indicators Fail?)

Trading signals and indicators are crucial tools in technical analysis, widely used by traders to evaluate price action and create entry and exit strategies.

While popular in markets like CFDs, stocks, and forex, no method can guarantee success.

To use technical indicators effectively, it’s important to understand the risks they pose and why they sometimes fail.

Lagging Indicators

Lagging indicators provide signals after significant price events, meaning they reflect past price actions.

Common lagging indicators include the Simple Moving Average (SMA) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD).

  • Simple Moving Average (SMA): The SMA can lead to false signals if the price reverses unexpectedly. For instance, if the SMA indicates an upward trend and the price suddenly drops, following the signal could lead to a loss.
  • Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD): Similarly, MACD signals can fail in certain conditions. For example, if the MACD indicates a bearish trend but the price increases, it could cause traders to lose if they act on the signal. This can often happen during low-volume midday sessions when smaller traders can cause sudden price movements.

One way to mitigate this risk is to lower profit targets during these periods or better understand volatility indicators to identify potential swings.

Leading Indicators

Leading indicators, like the Stochastic Oscillator (SO) and Relative Strength Index (RSI), are designed to signal price moves early.

They offer the potential advantage of catching trends at their beginning, but they also carry risks.

  • Relative Strength Index (RSI): RSI measures momentum and often signals overbought or oversold conditions. However, false signals can occur. For example, if the RSI dips into the oversold region and gives a buy signal, but the price remains flat or drops further, it can lead to losses if the trader enters too early.
  • Stochastic Oscillator (SO): This indicator signals buying or selling based on momentum. A false signal might occur if the SO enters the oversold region, signaling a buy, but the price doesn’t rise or drops further. Acting on such signals could lead to losses.

The Reason False Indicators Occur

Technical analysis relies on past price data to predict future movements, but it can’t fully predict the future.

Market conditions, especially increased trading volumes, can create volatile price actions that invalidate signals.

The core reason false signals occur is that market conditions can change quickly, and price indicators are not always equipped to handle sudden volatility.

This is particularly true in today’s markets, where higher trading volumes and rapid movements can make technical analysis more challenging.

Managing Risk with Indicators

Despite the occasional failure of indicators, they can still be valuable when used correctly with risk management techniques.

For instance, using stop-loss orders, position sizing, or diversifying trades can help limit potential losses from false signals.

Ultimately, traders should not rely solely on indicators but use them in conjunction with a comprehensive trading strategy that includes proper risk management.

By understanding how these tools work and their limitations, traders can increase their chances of making informed and profitable trades.

Concluding Thoughts

No trading signal or indicator is foolproof, but when used properly with risk management, they can be powerful tools in a trader’s arsenal.

Understanding when indicators might fail and preparing for such scenarios is key to mitigating losses.

Every trader must develop a balanced strategy that incorporates not only indicators but also strong risk management practices to navigate the complexities of the market effectively.

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The Synapse Network

Using Trading Indicators to Exit Trades for Risk Management

In trading, many focus on when to enter a trade, but knowing when to exit is just as critical, if not more.

Exiting a trade at the right time can lock in profits, prevent losses, and effectively manage risk.

One of the most effective ways to decide when to exit a trade is by using technical indicators.

These indicators help traders manage risk by setting clear, objective criteria for when to close a position.

To use trading indicators for exits, you need to focus on these key principles:

  • Choose indicators that align with your risk management goals.
  • Use a combination of trend, momentum, and volatility indicators.
  • Set clear exit rules based on indicator signals.

Let’s explore these principles in detail.

Choose Indicators Aligned With Risk Management Goals

The first step is to choose the right indicators that help you manage risk. Not all indicators are suitable for exit strategies, and some are better for identifying when to get out of a trade than others. The goal is to pick indicators that align with how you want to manage risk—whether it’s locking in profits, cutting losses, or both.

For example:

  • Trend indicators can help you stay in a trade until the trend weakens.
  • Volatility indicators help identify when the market is becoming too volatile and signaling potential danger.
  • Momentum indicators can help you gauge when the market is losing steam, prompting an exit.

Categorizing Indicators for Exiting Trades

Understanding the categories of indicators can help you build a solid exit strategy. Each category serves a different purpose when managing risk.

  • Trend Indicators: These help you stay in a position while the trend is strong but also signal when the trend is weakening. Examples include Moving Averages (like the 200-day or 50-day) and the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence).
  • Volatility Indicators: These help you gauge when a market is experiencing high or low volatility. This can signal when it’s time to get out if the risk of staying in the trade becomes too high. Common indicators include Bollinger Bands, ATR (Average True Range), and the Keltner Channel.
  • Momentum Indicators: These help identify when a market is overbought or oversold, which could indicate that the price might reverse soon. Common momentum indicators include the RSI (Relative Strength Index) and Stochastic Oscillator.

Setting Exit Rules Based on Indicators

Once you’ve selected your indicators, you need to define how you will use them to exit trades. Clear exit rules help ensure that your decisions are not based on emotions but on objective signals from the market.

Here are a few examples:

  • Trailing Stop Using ATR: Use the Average True Range (ATR) as a trailing stop indicator. ATR measures market volatility, and you can set a stop loss at a multiple of the ATR. For example, if the ATR is 20 points and you set a stop loss at 2x the ATR, you would exit the trade if the market moves 40 points against you.
  • Moving Average Crossover: If you are following a trend, you could exit a trade when a shorter-term moving average crosses below a longer-term one. For example, if the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day moving average, it could signal that the uptrend is over, prompting an exit.
  • RSI Exits: When using RSI, you can exit a trade when the RSI moves into overbought (above 70) or oversold (below 30) territory. For instance, in a long trade, you might consider exiting when the RSI crosses above 70, as this could indicate that the price is nearing a peak.
  • Bollinger Bands for Exit: If you’re in a trade and the price hits the upper or lower Bollinger Band, it can signal that the price has moved too far and may soon reverse. Traders often exit when the price closes outside of these bands.

Indicator Combinations for Exiting Trades

Here are a few examples of how combining different indicators can improve your exit strategies:

1. ATR and Moving Averages
Using the ATR as a trailing stop in combination with moving averages helps lock in profits while following the trend. The moving averages (such as a 50-day and 200-day) can guide your decision to stay in or exit based on trend direction, while the ATR ensures you have a safety net by trailing the stop.

2. Bollinger Bands and RSI
Bollinger Bands can give you an idea of volatility and when a price may be overextended. When combined with the RSI, you can confirm whether the price is truly overbought or oversold, giving you a solid basis to exit your trade.

3. MACD and Stochastic Oscillator
The MACD helps to spot trend reversals and can be used to exit when the MACD line crosses below the signal line. Adding the Stochastic Oscillator can help you identify when momentum is weakening, providing another layer of confirmation for your exit.

Example of Using Indicators to Exit Trades

Here’s an example of how to use these indicators to exit a trade in the forex market:

Let’s say you are long on EUR/USD, and you’ve been following the trend with the help of a 50-day moving average. As the price rises, the RSI begins to move into overbought territory (above 70). At the same time, the price closes outside the upper Bollinger Band, signaling overextension.

At this point, your exit strategy could be to close your position as soon as the RSI moves back below 70 and the price dips back inside the Bollinger Bands. This exit strategy locks in profits while managing the risk of a reversal.

Concluding Thoughts

Using trading indicators to exit trades is an essential part of risk management.

Whether you’re focusing on preserving profits or cutting losses, combining indicators from different categories—trend, momentum, and volatility—can provide the necessary insights to make objective exit decisions.

The key to success is setting clear, rule-based exits and avoiding emotional decisions.

By testing different combinations in a demo account, traders can refine their strategies and develop a more disciplined approach to managing their trades.

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The Synapse Network

How to Combine Trading Indicators Like a Pro

In forex trading, traders encounter different types of analysis.

Some prefer fundamental analysis, while others prefer technical analysis and even combine various indicators.

Trading with indicator combinations might seem complicated at first, but understanding how they work can make it easier.

There are three main principles to combining technical indicators effectively:

  • Ensure indicators are not redundant (avoid type overlapping).
  • Categorize the type of indicators.
  • Follow the right steps.

Let’s explore each principle in detail.

Beware the Risk of Redundancy

Many traders mistakenly think that combining multiple indicators will automatically yield better trading results. However, more does not always mean better. Indicators have specific functions, and mixing two indicators with the same function can lead to redundant signals.

For example, combining the Bollinger Bands and ADX indicators, both of which gauge trend strength, might seem useful. However, this combination only confirms the same trend strength, providing no additional insights. Similarly, using the RSI, CCI, and Stochastic indicators together would lead to redundancy because they all measure momentum in a similar way.

The key issue is that traders may believe the signal is stronger because multiple indicators agree, but in reality, it’s just a confirmation of the same information. Relying too heavily on this can lead to overlooking other important factors in trading.

Categorizing Forex Indicators

Before selecting indicators, it’s crucial to understand their categories. By choosing indicators from different categories, you ensure they complement each other rather than provide duplicate signals. Here are the main categories:

  • Momentum Indicators: Stochastic, RSI, CCI, MACD, Williams %, etc.
  • Trend Indicators: Bollinger Bands, ATR, MACD, ADX, Moving Averages, Donchian Channel, etc.
  • Volatility Indicators: Bollinger Bands, ATR, Standard Deviation, Keltner Channel, Pivot Points, etc.

Steps to Combine Forex Indicators the Right Way

Here are the steps you should follow to combine forex indicators effectively:

  1. Choose an indicator to identify market conditions: For example, a Moving Average can show whether a market is trending or ranging. If the MA is rising and above the price, it’s an uptrend.
  2. Pick an indicator that triggers trade entries: The RSI can be used to signal entries. For example, when the RSI crosses above 30 after being oversold, it signals a buying opportunity.
  3. Find indicators for trade management: Use indicators like the Pivot Point or ATR to set stop loss or profit target levels.

To combine indicators effectively, use one from each category (momentum, trend, and volatility) and limit the combination to no more than three indicators.

Indicator Combinations You Can Try

Here are some examples of effective indicator combinations:

1. MA, RSI, and Pivot Point:
This combination works well for swing trading. The Moving Average analyzes the trend, the RSI measures momentum, and the Pivot Point identifies support and resistance levels for profit targets.

2. ATR and Donchian Channel:
Best for breakout trading in low volatility markets. The ATR identifies volatility, and the Donchian Channel provides entry signals.

3. RSI and Bollinger Bands:
RSI shows momentum, and Bollinger Bands indicate volatility and trend direction.

4. RSI, ADX, and Bollinger Bands:
The ADX confirms the trend, the RSI measures momentum, and Bollinger Bands assess volatility.

5. Bollinger Bands and Stochastic:
Bollinger Bands show trend direction, while the Stochastic predicts trend strength. When combined, they provide accurate entry signals.

6. RSI and MACD:
The MACD shows trend direction, and RSI helps identify overbought or oversold conditions. This combination helps confirm trends and potential entry points.

RSI or Stochastic: Which One Should Be Used?

Both RSI and Stochastic are momentum indicators, but they perform best under different market conditions. The RSI is more suitable for trending markets, while the Stochastic is better for sideways markets. RSI is often applied to shorter time frames, while the Stochastic is used for mid to long-term momentum.

Concluding Thoughts

The best forex indicator combinations consist of indicators that complement one another.

Avoid using indicators with the same function, as this creates redundancy.

Instead, choose indicators from different categories to provide a broader view of market conditions.

Always test indicator combinations in a demo account before applying them to real trades to avoid risking real money.

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