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Tag Archive for: ethereum

Spencer Li

Will we see an Ethereum (ETH) ETF Soon?

Blockchain & Crypto
eth etf

What Is an Ethereum (ETH) ETF, and How Does It Work?

Last updated: 3 July 2026 · By Spencer Li, CFTe


An Ethereum ETF is an exchange-traded fund that holds Ethereum (ETH) on your behalf and trades as a single ticker on a regular stock exchange, so you can get exposure to ETH through a normal brokerage account without ever holding the crypto yourself. A spot Ethereum ETF holds actual ETH; a futures Ethereum ETF holds ETH futures contracts instead. The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved the first spot Ethereum ETFs in mid-2024, and they began trading in July 2024, roughly six months after spot Bitcoin ETFs did the same. The appeal is simple: no private keys, no crypto exchange, no self-custody, just a line item in the same account that holds your stocks. The trade-off is just as simple: you own a fund, not the coin, so you pay a management fee and you cannot move the ETH on-chain or stake it yourself.

Here is what an Ethereum ETF actually is, how the spot and futures versions differ, and what it does and does not give you.

What is an Ethereum ETF?

An ETF (exchange-traded fund) is a fund that holds an underlying asset and trades on a stock exchange like a share. An Ethereum ETF applies that wrapper to ETH.

You buy the ticker through your normal broker. Behind the scenes, the fund holds the exposure, and the price of your shares tracks the price of Ethereum (minus fees). When ETH goes up, the fund goes up. When ETH falls, so does the fund.

The point of the wrapper is access. Buying ETH directly means opening a crypto exchange account, funding it, and then either trusting that exchange to hold your coins or moving them into a self-custody wallet and looking after the private keys yourself. An ETF removes all of that. You get the price exposure inside the same regulated, familiar account you already use for stocks.

Spot vs futures: what is the difference?

There are two kinds of crypto ETF, and the difference matters.

A spot ETH ETF holds actual Ethereum. The fund buys and stores real ETH, so the share price tracks the live spot price closely.

A futures ETH ETF holds ETH futures contracts (agreements to buy or sell ETH at a set price on a future date) rather than the coin itself. Futures funds came first, because regulators were comfortable with them earlier. They track ETH well enough for short holds, but over longer periods the cost of rolling contracts forward can cause the fund to drift away from the spot price.

Spot ETH ETFFutures ETH ETF
What it holdsActual ETHETH futures contracts
Tracks spot priceCloselyApproximately, can drift over time
Main drawbackManagement feeRoll costs over longer holds
US approvalMid-2024Earlier (futures came first)
Best forLonger-term ETH exposureShorter-term or tactical exposure

For most people who simply want ETH exposure and plan to hold it, the spot version is the cleaner instrument. The futures version exists, and it has its uses, but you should know which one you are buying.

Why did the SEC take so long to approve it?

The short version: the SEC’s job is investor protection and market integrity, and for years it treated crypto products as guilty until proven innocent.

The agency has a long, documented pattern of delaying decisions on crypto ETFs rather than rejecting them outright. It repeatedly invoked its full review windows, asked for more comment, and pushed deadlines back. The same thing happened with Bitcoin. The SEC stalled spot Bitcoin ETFs for years before approving eleven of them in January 2024, and even then the approval passed by a single vote, with then-Chair Gary Gensler stressing that approval was not an endorsement of crypto.

Ethereum carried an extra question on top of all that: is ETH a commodity or a security? That classification debate, plus Ethereum’s move to a proof-of-stake model (where the network is secured by staked ETH rather than mining), gave regulators more to scrutinise around liquidity and how the asset is treated under the law.

The resolution, when it came in mid-2024, followed the Bitcoin script almost exactly: long reluctance, then approval once the precedent and the institutional demand were impossible to ignore. That is the useful pattern to remember. With crypto products, the SEC has tended to delay, then eventually follow the precedent it set with the prior asset.

What an Ethereum ETF gives you, and what it doesn’t

This is where I want to be straight with you, because the convenience cuts both ways.

What you gain:

  • Access through a normal broker. No crypto exchange, no wallet, no seed phrase to lose.
  • Regulated, familiar custody. The fund handles storage. For a lot of people that alone is worth the fee.
  • It sits with your other assets. ETH exposure in the same account as your stocks, with normal reporting.

What you give up:

  • You own the fund, not the coin. You cannot withdraw ETH on-chain, send it, or use it in any application.
  • You pay a management fee. Small, but it is a steady drag the longer you hold.
  • Staking yield is not yours by default. Holding ETH directly can earn staking rewards. An ETF wrapper may or may not pass any of that through, so check the specific fund.

Personally, I think the ETF is the right tool for someone who wants price exposure and values simplicity over control. If you actually want to use Ethereum, stake it, or hold the keys yourself, the ETF is not that. Pick the instrument that matches what you are trying to do.

Where the human edge comes in

An ETF makes the access trivial. One click in your broker and you have ETH exposure. What it does not do is tell you how much to put on, when crypto’s volatility means a position this size is too big for your account, or whether you should be buying ETH at all right now versus sitting on your hands.

The wrapper solved the plumbing. It did nothing for the judgment, the sizing, or the discipline to wait for your spot. That part is still on you, and it is the first of the Five Edges no product can outsource for you.

FAQ

Is there a spot Ethereum ETF?
Yes. The SEC approved the first US spot Ethereum ETFs in mid-2024, and they began trading in July 2024. A spot ETH ETF holds actual Ethereum, so its price tracks the live ETH price closely.

What is the difference between a spot and a futures Ethereum ETF?
A spot ETH ETF holds real ETH; a futures ETH ETF holds ETH futures contracts. Spot funds track the live price closely, while futures funds can drift from the spot price over longer holds because of the cost of rolling contracts forward.

Do I own actual Ethereum if I buy an ETH ETF?
No. You own shares in a fund that holds the exposure. You cannot withdraw the ETH on-chain, send it, stake it yourself, or use it in any application. If you want the actual coin, you need to buy ETH directly and hold it.

Can I earn staking rewards through an Ethereum ETF?
Not by default. Holding ETH directly can earn staking rewards, but an ETF may or may not pass any staking yield through to shareholders. Check the specific fund’s structure before assuming you get it.

Why did the SEC take so long to approve an Ethereum ETF?
The SEC’s mandate is investor protection and market integrity, and it has a long pattern of delaying crypto ETF decisions rather than rejecting them. With Ethereum it also had to weigh the commodity-versus-security classification question. As with Bitcoin, it eventually approved spot ETH ETFs once the precedent and institutional demand were clear.


Now that you know what the wrapper is and is not, the real question is the same one it always is: what is your plan for the position once you own it? An ETF is just the door. The trading is still the trading.

If you want the bigger picture on crypto and DeFi, read the pillar: The Ultimate Guide to Blockchain and Cryptocurrencies.

Want a simple system for any market, crypto included? Grab the free 15-Minute Swing Trading Starter Kit. It’s the exact routine I use to scan once a day and trade in 15 minutes, on stocks, forex, or crypto.


About the author. Spencer Li is the founder of Synapse Trading and a Certified Financial Technician (CFTe) with 15 years of trading across stocks, forex, crypto, commodities, and bonds. His trade log is public, 404 trades, losses left in. He teaches low-risk swing trading in 15 minutes a day, one system for any market.

Education, not financial advice. Synapse Trading is not licensed by MAS to advise on investment products. Trading carries risk of loss; past performance is not indicative of future results.


Related

The Ultimate Guide to Blockchain and Cryptocurrencies (pillar) · Bitcoin ETF explained · How to invest in cryptocurrency · What is DeFi

0 Comments/by Spencer Li
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Spencer Li

Primary Function of the Top 10 Cryptocurrency Coins

Blockchain & Crypto
crypto home study

What Is the Function of Each Cryptocurrency? Top 10 Coins, Explained

Last updated: 3 July 2026 · By Spencer Li, CFTe


Each cryptocurrency coin exists to do one main job, and the top coins split into four buckets: a store of value (Bitcoin), smart-contract platforms that let apps be built on top of them (Ethereum, Cardano, Solana, Polkadot), stablecoins pegged to the US dollar (Tether, USD Coin), and utility or exchange coins tied to a specific business or use (Binance Coin, Ripple, Dogecoin). In short: Bitcoin is digital gold, Ethereum is a programmable platform, stablecoins are dollar substitutes that live on a blockchain, and the rest each solve a narrower problem (cross-border payments, lower fees, chains talking to each other, or simply a meme that took off). If you only remember one thing, remember that a coin’s category tells you most of what it is for.

Here is the function of each of the top 10 coins by market capitalization, one line each, then a table you can keep.

The top 10 cryptocurrency coins and what each one does

CoinTickerCategoryPrimary function
BitcoinBTCStore of valueA store of wealth, digital gold
EthereumETHSmart-contract platformDecentralized platform that lets apps be built on top of it
CardanoADASmart-contract platformSmart-contract platform with lower fees, aimed at specific use cases
TetherUSDTStablecoinPegged 1-to-1 to the US dollar
Binance CoinBNBExchange / utility coinOwned by the largest crypto exchange, Binance
RippleXRPPayments coinA banker’s coin, used to settle global payments across borders
SolanaSOLSmart-contract platformSmart-contract platform using proof of history and proof of stake instead of proof of work
PolkadotDOTInteroperability protocolMulti-chain protocol that lets different blockchains talk to each other
DogecoinDOGEMeme coinA meme coin
USD CoinUSDCStablecoinPegged 1-to-1 to the US dollar

The rankings shift over time, and coins move up and down the list, so treat this as the function reference, not a leaderboard. A coin’s job rarely changes; its price and rank do.

What is a store-of-value coin? (Bitcoin)

Bitcoin (BTC) is the original cryptocurrency, and its job is simple: hold value. People call it digital gold because the supply is capped and nobody can print more of it on a whim. You are not really buying Bitcoin to build an app on it. You are holding it as a store of wealth.

That single function is why Bitcoin tends to be the reference point for the whole market. When people ask “what is crypto doing today,” they usually mean Bitcoin first.

What is a smart-contract platform? (Ethereum, Cardano, Solana, Polkadot)

A smart contract (code that runs automatically on a blockchain when its conditions are met) is what turns a coin from “money” into “a platform.” Ethereum (ETH) is the big one here: it is a decentralized platform that lets developers build apps on top of it, and the coin is the fuel that pays for running them.

The others in this bucket each pitch a different trade-off:

  • Cardano (ADA) is a smart-contract platform with lower fees, aimed at specific use cases.
  • Solana (SOL) is a smart-contract platform that uses proof of history and proof of stake (two ways of agreeing on the ledger) instead of the older proof of work, which is part of why it markets itself on speed.
  • Polkadot (DOT) sits one level up. It is a multi-chain protocol whose job is to let different blockchains talk to each other, rather than being a single app platform on its own.

Do note that, “smart-contract platform” is a category, not a single product. These coins compete on fees, speed, and how they reach agreement, not on doing fundamentally different jobs.

What is a stablecoin? (Tether, USD Coin)

A stablecoin is a coin pegged to a stable asset so its price does not swing. Both of the stablecoins in the top 10 are pegged 1-to-1 to the US dollar:

  • Tether (USDT) is pegged 1-to-1 to the US dollar.
  • USD Coin (USDC) is also pegged 1-to-1 to the US dollar.

The function is the same for both: give you a dollar substitute that lives on a blockchain, so you can hold “cash” inside the crypto system without converting back to a bank account every time. People use them to park value between trades.

What about exchange coins, payment coins, and meme coins? (Binance Coin, Ripple, Dogecoin)

These three do not fit the buckets above, and each has its own narrow job:

  • Binance Coin (BNB) is owned by the largest crypto exchange, Binance. Its function is tied to that business and its ecosystem.
  • Ripple (XRP) is a banker’s coin. Its job is to settle global payments across borders.
  • Dogecoin (DOGE) is a meme coin. That is the honest description, and it is worth being honest about it.

The one thing the category does not tell you

Knowing a coin’s function tells you what it is for. It does not tell you whether it is worth buying, or when. A scanner can sort all ten of these into buckets in a second; it will not tell you which one fits your plan, your risk, or your timing. That judgment is yours, and it is the first of the Five Edges that no tool trades for you.

Personally, I treat the function as step one, the homework, and the actual decision (size, entry, exit) as a separate question entirely. Understanding what a coin does is not the same as having a reason to own it.

FAQ

What is the function of Bitcoin versus Ethereum?
Bitcoin (BTC) is a store of value, often called digital gold. Ethereum (ETH) is a decentralized smart-contract platform that lets apps be built on top of it. One is meant to hold value; the other is meant to run code.

What is a stablecoin, and which top coins are stablecoins?
A stablecoin is a coin pegged to a stable asset so its price stays flat. In the top 10, Tether (USDT) and USD Coin (USDC) are both stablecoins, each pegged 1-to-1 to the US dollar.

What is the difference between a coin and a smart-contract platform?
A plain coin mainly moves or stores value. A smart-contract platform (Ethereum, Cardano, Solana) also lets developers build apps that run automatically on the blockchain. Polkadot is a related case: its job is to connect different blockchains rather than host apps directly.

Is Dogecoin a serious cryptocurrency?
Dogecoin (DOGE) is a meme coin. It trades like any other coin, but its origin and main identity are as a meme rather than a specific technical use case.

Do these crypto functions change over time?
A coin’s core function rarely changes; what changes is its price and its rank by market capitalization. Use the function as a stable reference and check current rankings separately.


Want the bigger picture behind these coins? Read the pillar: The Ultimate Guide to Blockchain and Cryptocurrencies.

New to all this? Grab the free 15-Minute Swing Trading Starter Kit. It’s the exact routine I use to scan once a day and trade any market, crypto included, in 15 minutes.


About the author. Spencer Li is the founder of Synapse Trading and a Certified Financial Technician (CFTe) with 15 years of trading across stocks, forex, crypto, commodities, and bonds. His trade log is public, 404 trades, losses left in. He teaches low-risk swing trading in 15 minutes a day, one system for any market.

Education, not financial advice. Synapse Trading is not licensed by MAS to advise on investment products. Trading carries risk of loss; past performance is not indicative of future results.


Related

The Ultimate Guide to Blockchain and Cryptocurrencies (pillar) · What is Bitcoin and how does it work · How to start trading cryptocurrency

0 Comments/by Spencer Li
https://synapsetrading.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/crypto-home-study.jpg 483 725 Spencer Li https://synapsetrading.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/logo.jpg Spencer Li2021-09-20 17:54:322026-07-06 01:59:34Primary Function of the Top 10 Cryptocurrency Coins
Spencer Li

What is Decentralised Finance (DeFi) and is it the Future of Finance?

Blockchain & Crypto
draft 2 Defi thumbnail

What Is DeFi (Decentralised Finance), and Will It Replace Banks?

Last updated: 3 July 2026 · By Spencer Li, CFTe


Decentralised finance, or DeFi, is a financial system that lets people lend, borrow, trade, and earn without a bank or any central middleman in between. Instead of a bank holding your money and approving your transactions, the rules run automatically as code on a blockchain (a public, shared digital ledger that records every transaction across many computers). The honest answer to “will it replace banks?” is: not yet, and maybe not fully. DeFi fixes two real problems with traditional banking, a lack of transparency and the risk of data breaches. But it brings its own problems, mainly crypto volatility, hacking risk, and almost no regulation. So today it works best as a parallel system for people who want full control of their money, not as a wholesale replacement for the banking system most of us still rely on.

Here is how it actually works, what it does well, where it breaks, and why I would not bet the house on it yet.

Why do we even need an alternative to banks?

We currently run on a centralised financial system, often shortened to CeFi (centralised finance), where power sits with a few central authorities. Banks, credit unions, and insurance companies control the services, and we are largely at their mercy for investing, lending, borrowing, and everyday money matters.

To be fair, this system is trusted for a reason. When you deposit money, the bank takes responsibility for it. Regulators set the standards and make everyone follow them. For most people, most of the time, that reliability is exactly what you want.

That being said, the centralised system is not without flaws. There are two big ones.

1. Lack of transparency. When you deposit money in a bank, it does not sit locked in a box only you can open. The bank lends it out to someone else, because that is how banks make money. They are responsible for getting it back, and they will return your money even if the borrower defaults. But you never really know what is happening with your money or who it was lent to.

2. Data breaches. A centralised system is a single big target. There have been many cases where people’s confidential information and money were stolen. The same centralisation also makes the system vulnerable to wider financial crises, the kind of economic downturns that rattle everything at once.

DeFi is often pitched as the cure for these two specific maladies. Let’s see how.

What is DeFi (decentralised finance), and how does it work?

A decentralised financial system is an alternative to the centralised one. It lets financial transactions happen without a third-party financial institution in the middle. Think of it as a digital ecosystem offering services much like a bank does, except the services are handled by code rather than by a person.

The key difference is what it is built on. DeFi runs on top of a blockchain network. A blockchain is a decentralised, distributed, and usually public digital ledger that records transactions across all the computers on its network.

The reason this matters is that the records are very hard to tamper with. Transactions are stored in “blocks,” and a block cannot be quietly edited after the fact without breaking every block that came after it. In plain terms, it is extremely hard to game the system.

So DeFi takes direct aim at the two CeFi flaws above. Because each transaction is recorded on a public ledger, you can see exactly where your money is and what it is doing. And because the record is so hard to fake, your money is harder to quietly mishandle.

CeFi vs DeFi: a side-by-side comparison

Here is the cleanest way to hold the two systems next to each other.

CeFi (banks)DeFi (blockchain)
Who is in controlA central authority (bank, regulator)Code (smart contracts), no single owner
TransparencyLow, you can’t see where your money goesHigh, every transaction is on a public ledger
ReliabilityHigh, established and regulatedImproving, but still young
Geographic limitsYes, restrictions on cross-border lendingNo, anyone, anywhere, peer-to-peer
Main risksData breaches, financial crisesVolatility, hacking, no regulation
What you transact inReal-world money and assetsMostly crypto assets (e.g. Bitcoin)
OversightStrong regulationLittle to none

The table makes the trade-off obvious. DeFi buys you transparency and freedom; it costs you the safety net of regulation. Which side of that trade you want depends entirely on how much control you are willing to manage yourself.

What are the advantages of DeFi?

Beyond fixing transparency, DeFi brings a few things a bank simply cannot.

1. No censorship. Unlike CeFi, DeFi does not gatekeep. Anyone can use any financial service they need. That is a big deal, especially for the underbanked, people who can’t easily get a normal bank account.

2. No geographical restrictions. You can transact with people all over the world. A centralised system usually won’t let you freely lend to or receive money from someone in another country. DeFi users can do worldwide peer-to-peer (P2P) lending and borrowing directly. Do note that, for now, this mostly works with crypto assets, the most famous being Bitcoin (BTC), rather than real-world assets like gold or property.

What are the disadvantages of DeFi?

I want to be balanced here, because the hype usually skips this part. DeFi has four real weaknesses.

1. It is reliant on technology. Because the whole thing is digital, it lives or dies by its tech. That means serious technical risk. One bad glitch and the system can come crashing down.

2. Cryptocurrencies are volatile. Major cryptocurrencies swing hard, which makes the system unpredictable. Even if you borrow a stablecoin, you usually post crypto as collateral, and that collateral’s value is not fixed. It can drop sharply at any time and trigger problems.

3. There is hacking risk. The same transparency that makes DeFi trustworthy cuts both ways. Smart contracts can be read and audited by anyone, which means hackers can study them too. The possibility of manipulation has not gone to zero.

4. There is little oversight or regulation. This is the biggest one. So much of the public depends on the centralised system that a full switch to DeFi feels unrealistic right now. No regulator also means no one to call when something goes wrong.

What is Ethereum, and what are smart contracts?

You cannot talk about DeFi without Ethereum. Ethereum is one of the most popular blockchain platforms, a decentralised public ledger that lets people run decentralised applications (dApps, apps with no central server or owner). It has its own cryptocurrency, Ether (ETH), and its own programming languages, Solidity and Vyper. After Bitcoin, Ether is the most popular cryptocurrency in the world and ranks second by market value.

Since no bank sits in the middle of a DeFi transaction, something has to enforce the rules. That something is a smart contract. A smart contract is a piece of code, not controlled by any central authority, that runs automatically when preset conditions are met. Once it is deployed on the network, it cannot be changed.

Like a traditional contract, a smart contract lays down the rules of a deal, but it enforces them by itself. For example, if a borrower fails to repay a loan from another Ethereum user, the borrower’s collateral is automatically liquidated and the loan is settled. No phone calls, no debt collector. In the world of DeFi, smart contracts stand in for all the financial institutions.

What are the most popular DeFi applications?

Three categories cover most of what people actually use.

1. Decentralised exchanges (DEXs). A DEX works like a marketplace where buyers and sellers connect and trade cryptocurrencies (and fiat, meaning government-issued money like USD) without a central authority. The whole process is non-custodial and runs through smart contracts, so no third party ever owns your assets.

2. Peer-to-peer (P2P) lending platforms. Need a loan? You can approach another user directly and skip the middleman. Because both sides rely on smart contracts, the room for fraud is very small.

3. Stablecoins. Stablecoins were created to answer crypto’s volatility problem. A stablecoin is a cryptocurrency, like Bitcoin or Ether, with one difference: it is pegged to the value of something stable, usually a fiat currency, sometimes a commodity like a precious metal. DAI is one of the most popular, with 1 DAI trading at roughly $1.

Will DeFi take over the traditional financial system?

It is fair to say DeFi has genuinely changed the financial landscape, and rightly so. It hands people control of their own money, it adds efficiency and transparency, and it has cut the room for corruption and fraud. On those terms, it looks like one of the better-designed financial systems we have.

Having said that, the system is still in its relative infancy, and the disadvantages above are real, not theoretical. Volatility, hacking, and the near-total lack of regulation are not small footnotes.

Personally, here is where I land. DeFi will keep developing fast, and if it closes the current gaps, especially around stability and oversight, there is a real chance it grows into a much larger part of the global financial system. But “replace banks entirely, soon” is a much stronger claim than the evidence supports today. I treat it as a powerful parallel system worth understanding, not as a reason to abandon the boring, regulated rails most of my own money still sits on.

And this is the part the technology cannot do for you. Blockchain can guarantee that a transaction is recorded honestly; it cannot tell you whether a given token is a real opportunity or a rug-pull dressed up in a nice whitepaper. The code removes the middleman. It does not remove the judgment. That judgment, deciding what is actually worth your capital, is the human edge no smart contract trades for you.

FAQ

What is DeFi in simple terms?
DeFi (decentralised finance) is a way to use financial services like lending, borrowing, and trading without a bank or central middleman. The rules run automatically as code (smart contracts) on a blockchain, a public ledger that records every transaction.

Is DeFi safe?
It is transparent but not risk-free. DeFi removes the bank as a single point of failure, but it adds its own risks: crypto price volatility, smart-contract hacking, and almost no regulation, which means little recourse if something goes wrong.

What is the difference between CeFi and DeFi?
CeFi (centralised finance) runs through banks and regulators who control your money and the rules. DeFi runs on a blockchain with no central owner, so transactions are transparent and borderless, but unregulated.

What is a smart contract?
A smart contract is code on a blockchain that runs automatically when preset conditions are met. It enforces the terms of a deal by itself, with no central authority. Once deployed, it cannot be changed. In DeFi, smart contracts do the job banks normally do.

Will DeFi replace banks?
Not in the near term. DeFi solves transparency and access, but volatility, hacking risk, and the lack of regulation make a full replacement unlikely soon. It is better viewed as a parallel system than a wholesale replacement.


Now that you have the full picture of DeFi, its strengths and its real weaknesses, what do you think? Will it take over the traditional financial system, or stay a parallel option? Let me know in the comments.

And if you want the bigger picture on how all of this fits together, read the pillar: The Ultimate Guide to Blockchain and Cryptocurrencies.

Want a simple system instead of the hype? Grab the free 15-Minute Swing Trading Starter Kit. It’s the exact routine I use to scan once a day and trade any market in 15 minutes.


About the author. Spencer Li is the founder of Synapse Trading and a Certified Financial Technician (CFTe) with 15 years of trading across stocks, forex, crypto, commodities, and bonds. His trade log is public, 404 trades, losses left in. He teaches low-risk swing trading in 15 minutes a day, one system for any market.

Education, not financial advice. Synapse Trading is not licensed by MAS to advise on investment products. Trading carries risk of loss; past performance is not indicative of future results.


Related

Ultimate Guide to Blockchain and Cryptocurrencies (pillar) · What is Bitcoin and how does it work · How to invest in cryptocurrency

0 Comments/by Spencer Li
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Spencer Li

How Much Profits Did You Make from the Crypto Crash?

Market Analysis
thumbnail how much profits did you make from the crypto crash

Recently, there has been a lot of volatility in the Crypto market, with many bullish and bearish factors moving the market, which resulted in a big crash.

In this post, I’m going to do an overview of the crypto and forex market, review some of our recent trades, and discuss the current trading opportunities.

If you want to get all the analysis and charts mentioned in this post ahead of time, don’t forget to join our free telegram channel! https://t.me/synapsetrading

 

Covid updates

Before we go into the markets, let’s take a quick look at the Covid situation, with a focus on vaccination.

Covid updates

As you can see from this chart, the developed countries have surged ahead with vaccinations, with 50-60% of their population getting at least one dose.

For many of these places, life has almost gone back to normal, and the economic recovery has started.

Unfortunately, this recovery is going to be another K-shape recovery, because if you look at the overall numbers, only 10-15% of the global population has had at least one dose.

My guess is that by Q3 or Q4 this year, travel will resume in some developed countries.

Bitcoin: Shorting the Big Crash!

In early May this year, I started calling for a short on Bitcoin, after seeing the rising wedge pattern which evolved into a head and shoulders pattern.

Bitcoin: Shorting the Big Crash

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is starting to form a potential reversal pattern. We need to watch out in case this price movement develops. Trade according to the trend! ??

 

Bitcoin: Buying Opportunity Now

Following up from our Bitcoin (BTC/USD) analysis just a few days ago, we accurately predicted the sharp drop of Bitcoin before it happened!

Congrats to those who followed and shorted! ???

 

Bitcoin: Buying Opportunity Now?

More recently, I noticed that Bitcoin has bottomed out for the medium-term, so I issued a buy call, which is still valid now.

 

Bitcoin: Buying Opportunity Now

Following up on our series of uncanny accurate predictions on Bitcoin (BTC/USD), it has now formed a mini double bottom (tweezer bottom), and we could well see a medium-term swing upwards, after the huge sell-down that went into oversold territory.

Though the major trend might still be bearish, this looks like a good low-risk counter-trend buying opportunity to capture a swing up.

 

Bitcoin: Buying Opportunity Now 2

Following up on Bitcoin (BTC/USD), this is the 3rd test of support (and it held), which is a sign of bullishness.

Looks like a good time to start accumulating some. ??

 

Ethereum: Profits from the Crash

Ethereum: Profits from the Crash 2

Looks like Ethereum (ETH/USD) is in for some correction as well, with the first major support at 3000. Will reevaluate when prices get there.

 

Ethereum: Profits from the Crash 2Following up on Ethereum (ETH/USD), our prediction was also spot-on, and the crash exceeded our expectations and went all the way to TP3 in just one day!

Congrats to those who followed and shorted! ???

 

Recent Forex Trades: AUD/CHF & EUR/JPY

AUD/CHF & EUR/JPY

Looking at the chart of AUD/CHF, it has tried 3 times to break the resistance to new highs, but failed 3 times.

This suggests that there may be more downside, especially if it breaks the bullish trendline.

 

AUD/CHF & EUR/JPY 3

Following up from AUD/CHF, it has broken to new lows as predicted, and is now trending downwards.

Congrats to those who followed! ???

 

AUD/CHF & EUR/JPY 3EUR/JPY remains on a strong uptrend, clearing the recent resistance, and formed a bull flag after pulling back to the 10&20-EMAs.

 

AUD/CHF & EUR/JPY 4

Following up on EUR/JPY, it has gone up by +276 pips since our last analysis.

Congrats to those who followed! ???

 

I have come to the end of this market analysis.

Now that I have shared my views on the various markets, do you think it is a good time to start buying cryptocurrencies?

Let me know in the comments below!

P.S. Check out our mentoring programs if you are keen to start your trading journey today!

2 Comments/by Spencer Li
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Spencer Li

Stock Market Surges As Predicted – What to Buy Now?

Market Analysis
draft 2 market analysis what to buy now e1618222224862

 

As countries around the world roll out their vaccine plans, we can see different industries and different countries recovering at different rates.

However, only a small percentage (about 5%) of the global population is vaccinated, so it might take a while before we start to see the results of the vaccines kick in to reduce new Covid cases.

Stock Market Surges As Predicted

Stock Market Surges As Predicted 2

If you look at the graph of new cases, it is still on the rise.

Given such a scenario, how does this affect the financial markets, and what are some of the investment opportunities we can look at?

 

Stock Market Surge

On 31 March 2021, I shared this important snippet in the public Telegram channel, because I felt that S&P 500 was going to have a breakout.

 

Stock Market Surge

“Following up on the S&P 500, it is still within the range, but now the odds are much higher that it will continue going higher.

If I had to guess, I would estimate 70% bullish and 30% bearish.

This means it’s a good low-risk opportunity to add long positions, with a SL just below the recent swing low (around 3840).

Shared this with my students a few days ago, will tonight be the night the S&P 500 makes a new high?”

 

That very night, stocks broke to a new high, and has been steadily heading up for the past 1-2 weeks.

 

Stock Market Surge 2

“Following up on our last post, the market is surging up as predicted. Congrats to those who followed! ???“

 

As of Friday last night (9 April 2021), the S&P 500 has hit our first price target of 4125, giving us close to 4% gain so far.

 

Stock Market Surge 3

 

We have taken half profits, and there might be small pullback where we can add positions before gunning for the next price target.

 

Not Much Upside for Oil Markets

On 27 March 2021, I shared a chart on the long-term outlook of the Crude Oil market, and I felt that that most of the post-Covid recovery has been priced into oil, and since it won’t be going up much, I suggested taking a long-term short position on it.

Upside for Oil Markets

“Looking at the long-term chart of Crude Oil, we saw it bottom around April last year, before recovering all the way to previous highs in a 2-legged move.

Something interesting to note is that the 2 legs of the 2-legged move are exactly the same length.

Now that it has reached the pre-Covid highs, I do not see much more upside for Crude Oil.”

 

Upside for Oil Markets 2

“Following up on Crude Oil, it has started turning down as predicted. Possible short entry for the next leg down.”

Since then, prices have started to turn down a little, and I will continue to hold my short positions for another possible leg of price movement downwards.

 

Will USD Become Bullish?

On 27 March 2021, I noticed that the USD was picking up strength, which was surprising, considering how much money the US has been printing.

My guess is that currently, the US is recovering faster from Covid as compared to many of the less developed countries.

 

USD Become Bullish

“Looking at the US Dollar Index (DXY), it seems like after a multi-year downtrend, the USD is picking up strength.

It has broke the long-term bearish trendline, formed a small double bottom, and is now challenging the 200-EMA.”

 

USD Become Bullish 2

Looking at the larger chart of the US Dollar Index (DXY), you can see that price has formed a double bottom, however the size of this pattern is not that convincing since it is comparatively small.

Price is now fighting in the middle of the EMAs, and we will need to see if it can emerge victorious and stay above all the EMAs.

 

Relative Strength of Forex Pairs

Let’s take a look at the other currencies and their relative strength.

Strength of Forex Pairs 2This shows the current ranking of different currencies, from strongest to weakest.

 

Strength of Forex Pairs 2

“Stocks continue to surge as predicted, and because the JPY is weakening, all pairs of /JPY are very bullish too.”

This shows the trends of the different currency pairs, stocks indices, commodities and bonds.

From these 2 tables, we can see that JPY & GPY are bearish, while USD & CHF are bullish.

 

Crypto: Bitcoin & Ethereum

Cryptocurrencies are really heating up right now, and I’ll be focusing on the 2 major ones – Bitcoin (BTC/USD) and Ethereum (ETH/USD).

 

Bitcoin & Ethereum

Looking at the chart of Bitcoin (BTC/USD), it is still staying nicely within the uptrend channel, with a nice ascending triangle building up for more bullish pressure.

It is very likely that it will break new highs this weekend.

 

Bitcoin & Ethereum 2

Looking at the chart of Ethereum (ETH/USD), it is possibly even more bullish than Bitcoin, after a breakout of a ascending triangle, a pullback to test the breakout, which also formed a bull flag.

That is already a confluence of 3 bullish factors.

Needless to say, I will be holding on to this as well.

 

Market Summary

In this post, I have covered many markets, and the key things to note are:

  • Bullishness of the stock market
  • Long-term bearishness of Crude Oil
  • Potential bullish reversal of the USD
  • Bearishness of JPY & GPY
  • Bullishness of USD & CHF
  • Bullishness of cryptocurrencies

Now that I have shared my views on the various markets, what do you think is the best investment at this point of time?

Let me know in the comments below!

0 Comments/by Spencer Li
https://synapsetrading.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/draft-2-market-analysis-what-to-buy-now-e1618222224862.jpg 608 1080 Spencer Li https://synapsetrading.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/logo.jpg Spencer Li2021-04-10 18:51:112022-03-08 11:56:07Stock Market Surges As Predicted – What to Buy Now?
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