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The advance/decline ratio (ADR) is a widely used market-breadth indicator in technical analysis.

It compares the number of stocks that closed higher (advancers) against the number of stocks that closed lower (decliners) from the previous trading day.

The ratio is calculated by dividing the number of advancing stocks by the number of declining stocks.

How the Advance/Decline Ratio (ADR) Works

Investors often use the advance/decline ratio to gauge market trends and detect potential reversals.

By comparing the ratio to the performance of a stock index, such as the NYSE or Nasdaq, traders can assess whether a broad spectrum of stocks is participating in a market rally or sell-off, or if the movement is concentrated in a minority of stocks.

A low ADR can suggest an oversold market, while a high ADR can indicate that the market is overbought.

These conditions may signal an impending reversal. For technical traders, identifying these directional changes is crucial for successful trading strategies.

Although the ADR provides helpful insights, it is rarely used as a standalone tool.

When paired with other metrics, such as moving averages, it becomes a powerful component of a broader market analysis strategy.

The ADR can be calculated over various time frames, such as daily, weekly, or monthly periods, to track short-term and long-term trends.

Types of Advance/Decline Ratios (ADR)

  • Standalone Ratio: On its own, the ADR reveals whether the market may be overbought or oversold. A high ADR suggests that more stocks are advancing, possibly indicating overbought conditions, while a low ADR signals that more stocks are declining, possibly pointing to an oversold market.
  • Trend Analysis: Observing the ADR over time helps traders identify whether the market is trending bullish or bearish. A steadily increasing ADR suggests a bullish trend, while a declining ratio may signal a bearish trend.

Concluding Thoughts

The advance/decline ratio is an essential tool for traders and analysts looking to understand the underlying strength of a market.

By combining it with other technical indicators, traders can gain valuable insights into market conditions and identify potential shifts in trends.

Although useful, the ADR should not be used in isolation but as part of a comprehensive analysis to improve trading decisions.

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Thumbnail banner weekly market wrap x3

For subscribers of our “Daily Trading Signals”, we now also include a “Weekly Market Report”, where we provide a weekly deep-dive on the market, including fundamentals, technical, economics, and portfolio management:

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Market Recap & Upcoming Week

Last week, the tech and financial sectors saw significant developments. Amazon announced an ambitious investment of up to $4 billion in Anthropic, positioning itself as a competitor to OpenAI, the developer of ChatGPT. This move is part of Amazon’s strategy to remain competitive against tech giants like Microsoft and Google’s Alphabet. Meanwhile, OpenAI itself seeks a massive valuation jump to $90 billion in its latest share sale, up from a previous $29 billion earlier this year.

China’s moves to reconsider price controls in its housing market and achieve self-reliance in the semiconductor industry underscored its shifting economic strategies, after concerns mounted over the fallout from Evergrande’s financial troubles, with the property giant’s shares plunging 25% due to delays in debt restructuring.

In the energy sector, oil prices soared to a one-year high as crude stockpiles dwindled, while mortgage rates in the U.S. spiked to a nearly 23-year high, presenting further challenges for the housing market. The specter of a U.S. government shutdown loomed as House Republicans canceled their recess, signaling a tense standoff in the days to come.

This week poses significant potential disruptions on both the political and economic fronts. Tensions in Congress are reaching a boiling point as a government shutdown looms. The deadlock stems from a lack of agreement on last-minute spending bills needed to sustain government operations past September 30th. The ramifications of such a shutdown are vast, affecting millions, from essential government personnel to beneficiaries of federal aid programs. Moreover, the economic impact is non-trivial.

Goldman Sachs analysts estimate that for each week the shutdown persists, the U.S. GDP growth could be slashed by 0.2 percentage points, though a swift recovery might be on the cards post an agreement. The larger concern arises from the potential shutdown of key economic agencies like the BEA, BLS, and U.S. Census Bureau. This lack of crucial data could impair the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions, especially as they prepare for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting scheduled at the end of October.

On the economic data front, expect a series of reports that will provide insights into the health and trajectory of the U.S. labor market. Starting Tuesday, we’ll receive the August JOLTS report, which will be followed on Wednesday by ADP’s National Employment Report detailing private sector payroll trends for September.

The week will culminate with the much-anticipated nonfarm payrolls report on Friday. All these updates come at a time when the Federal Reserve’s recent rate hikes have started impacting the job market, albeit it still exhibits resilience with hiring rates near historic highs. It’s a pivotal week, and stakeholders from all sectors will be watching closely.

 

Trading Signals GBPUSD 270923

GBPUSD – Following up on this trade, we are up +428 pips profit, and prices are almost hitting the TP as well!

Congrats to those who took this trade! 💰🔥💪🏻

 

Trading Signals EURUSD 270923

EURUSD – Following up on this, we are up +234 pips profit, and prices are very close to hitting our TP!

Congrats to those who took this trade! 💰🔥💪🏻

 

Trading Signals WTIUSD 290923
Crude Oil (WTIUSD) – Prices have gone up almost 50% in the last few months, will this cause inflation to spike again?

 

Trading Signals AUDUSD 300923

AUDUSD – Prices finally starting to move! 🔥

 

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Thumbnail banner weekly market wrap x3

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For subscribers of our “Daily Trading Signals”, we now also include a “Weekly Market Report”, where we provide a weekly deep-dive on the market, including fundamentals, technicals, economics, and portfolio management:

Click here for last week’s market report (18 September 2023)
Click here to subscribe for the latest market report (25 September 2023)
Click here to see the archives of all our past market reports

Market Recap & Upcoming Week

In the realm of technology stocks, a potential dampening in their bright outlook is on the horizon. Central to the 2023 market rally, these stocks now grapple with the prospect of prolonged higher interest rates from the Federal Reserve. Historically, the tech sector thrived not only on industry innovation but also on ultra-low interest rates.

But with the Fed’s response to inflation, this once rosy perspective has shifted. This shift was palpable when the tech sector of the S&P 500 dropped by 29% by the end of 2022. Despite signs of recovery earlier this year, thanks to AI innovations and rate cut speculations, sustained inflation and a strong economy have led to renewed skepticism.

Meanwhile, oil prices inch closer to $100 a barrel, intensifying global inflation concerns. While countries like Saudi Arabia and Russia benefit from this surge, the ramifications for the world economy, particularly inflation and its potential effect on interest rates, are profound.

The Federal Reserve’s strategy took center stage as it continued its stance on steady interest rates, hinting at potential hikes by the year’s end. This decision coincides with their revised economic growth projection, foreseeing a 2.1% GDP rise. As the central bank reduces its bond assets, all eyes are on the future decisions of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).

Despite challenges such as escalating energy prices, the U.S. consumer spending trends suggest economic optimism. Adding to the intrigue, the Federal Reserve expressed an ambitious vision for a historically “soft landing.” With plans for an extended rate-cutting cycle, they aim for controlled inflation without severe economic repercussions.

Yet, this optimistic outlook comes with its set of challenges, as history tells us that rate escalations tend to be gradual but decreases are often abrupt. The Fed’s hope now hinges on a balance between growth and inflation management.

As we move into the upcoming week, market watchers should remain vigilant about the potential shifts in the investment landscape.

Key focus areas include the impending reports on U.S. home prices and data for new and pending home sales in August. These metrics might provide insight into the health and direction of the U.S. housing market. Alongside, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s town hall with educators on Thursday promises to offer significant cues about the central bank’s stance on prevailing economic conditions.

Moreover, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, which is the Fed’s favored measure of inflation, is slated for release on Friday, potentially influencing investment strategies. Amid these macro indicators, a series of earnings reports are due next week from corporate giants, including Costco, Micron Technology, Accenture, Nike, CarMax, and Carnival Cruise Line. These results could offer a snapshot of the business landscape, further guiding investment decisions.

 

trading signals GBPNZD 190923
GBPNZD – Pullback to support level, waiting for price alerts to trigger when the uptrend resumes

 

trading signals EURAUD 190923
EURAUD – Pullback to support area as well, waiting for price alerts to trigger when the uptrend resumes.

 

trading signals BTCUSD 190923
Bitcoin (BTCUSD) – Support levels held once again, will we see a run up soon?

 

trading signals EURAUD 240923
EURAUD – Following up, there is a good strong bullish bar today for entry.

 

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Thumbnail banner weekly market wrap x3

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For subscribers of our “Daily Trading Signals”, we now also include a “Weekly Market Report”, where we provide a weekly deep-dive on the market, including fundamentals, technicals, economics, and portfolio management:

Click here for last week’s market report (11 September 2023)
Click here to subscribe for the latest market report (18 September 2023)
Click here to see the archives of all our past market reports

Market Recap & Upcoming Week

Last week, the financial landscape exhibited a complex interplay between inflationary pressures and robust market dynamics. Despite concerns over escalating inflation, spearheaded by spiraling fuel costs, the US stock markets experienced an upswing, with investors holding onto optimism bolstered by a strong U.S. consumer base and a steady labor market.

The landscape was further buoyed by a surge in consumer spending in August, reflecting a resilient U.S economy even as suppliers confronted rising costs. However, the European Central Bank took a firm stance against inflation by implementing a historic interest rate hike, leading to significant fluctuations in the Eurozone’s financial sphere. This strategy contrasted with expectations regarding the Federal Reserve’s approach in the upcoming meeting, with anticipations leaning towards a maintenance of the current rates, rather than an increase. Concurrently, the bond market exhibited signs of caution, witnessing yields nearing the high levels last seen during the 2008 crisis.

Elsewhere in the corporate sector, there was a noticeable rally in the stocks of transportation and travel companies, a trend illustrative of the undying consumer penchant for travel despite burgeoning fuel costs. Companies like Norwegian Cruise Lines and Carnival celebrated stock climbs, while Booking Holdings enjoyed a hike in its stock price.

Notably, the market’s reception to the inflation uptick was predominantly positive, with indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite recording substantial gains, a movement tied to the potentially volatile nature of the primary inflation driver – rising fuel costs. Moreover, the global market reactions post the ECB’s rate hike were mixed, inducing a decline in the euro value while catalyzing a rally in the Eurozone bond market, and facilitating gains in the FTSE 100 and Stoxx Europe 50. Moving forward, the financial narrative remains riveted on the pivotal decisions of central banks globally and the consequent market reactions, with a keen eye on the indicators revealing the health of the U.S. and European economies.

This week all eyes are set on the world of finance as both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England gear up for their respective policy meetings. On Tuesday, Federal Reserve policymakers convene for the FOMC meeting, eagerly awaited by investors and market spectators alike, with the potent interest rate decision expected to be revealed on Wednesday.

Adding to the week’s monetary narrative, the Bank of England will be holding its own policy discussion on Thursday, with analysts around the globe anticipating the outcomes and its potential ramifications on the financial markets. In tandem with these pivotal meetings, the economic landscape will be further delineated through updates on the housing market; a sector demonstrating notable dynamism and a pulse on economic health. Details on building permits, housing starts, and existing home sales for August will be unveiled, offering a granular view of the sector’s current standing.

In addition to the governmental economic focus, the corporate sector is also bracing for a notable week with heavy hitters such as FedEx, AutoZone, and General Mills slated to report their earnings. Market analysts and investors will be keenly focusing on these reports to gauge the health and performance of these industry giants amidst the broader economic contexts laid out by the monetary policy decisions.

 

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Trading signals and indicators are crucial tools in technical analysis, widely used by traders to evaluate price action and create entry and exit strategies.

While popular in markets like CFDs, stocks, and forex, no method can guarantee success.

To use technical indicators effectively, it’s important to understand the risks they pose and why they sometimes fail.

Lagging Indicators

Lagging indicators provide signals after significant price events, meaning they reflect past price actions.

Common lagging indicators include the Simple Moving Average (SMA) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD).

  • Simple Moving Average (SMA): The SMA can lead to false signals if the price reverses unexpectedly. For instance, if the SMA indicates an upward trend and the price suddenly drops, following the signal could lead to a loss.
  • Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD): Similarly, MACD signals can fail in certain conditions. For example, if the MACD indicates a bearish trend but the price increases, it could cause traders to lose if they act on the signal. This can often happen during low-volume midday sessions when smaller traders can cause sudden price movements.

One way to mitigate this risk is to lower profit targets during these periods or better understand volatility indicators to identify potential swings.

Leading Indicators

Leading indicators, like the Stochastic Oscillator (SO) and Relative Strength Index (RSI), are designed to signal price moves early.

They offer the potential advantage of catching trends at their beginning, but they also carry risks.

  • Relative Strength Index (RSI): RSI measures momentum and often signals overbought or oversold conditions. However, false signals can occur. For example, if the RSI dips into the oversold region and gives a buy signal, but the price remains flat or drops further, it can lead to losses if the trader enters too early.
  • Stochastic Oscillator (SO): This indicator signals buying or selling based on momentum. A false signal might occur if the SO enters the oversold region, signaling a buy, but the price doesn’t rise or drops further. Acting on such signals could lead to losses.

The Reason False Indicators Occur

Technical analysis relies on past price data to predict future movements, but it can’t fully predict the future.

Market conditions, especially increased trading volumes, can create volatile price actions that invalidate signals.

The core reason false signals occur is that market conditions can change quickly, and price indicators are not always equipped to handle sudden volatility.

This is particularly true in today’s markets, where higher trading volumes and rapid movements can make technical analysis more challenging.

Managing Risk with Indicators

Despite the occasional failure of indicators, they can still be valuable when used correctly with risk management techniques.

For instance, using stop-loss orders, position sizing, or diversifying trades can help limit potential losses from false signals.

Ultimately, traders should not rely solely on indicators but use them in conjunction with a comprehensive trading strategy that includes proper risk management.

By understanding how these tools work and their limitations, traders can increase their chances of making informed and profitable trades.

Concluding Thoughts

No trading signal or indicator is foolproof, but when used properly with risk management, they can be powerful tools in a trader’s arsenal.

Understanding when indicators might fail and preparing for such scenarios is key to mitigating losses.

Every trader must develop a balanced strategy that incorporates not only indicators but also strong risk management practices to navigate the complexities of the market effectively.