Market Analysis – Page 49 – Synapse Trading

Weekly Market Wrap: Taking Profit for Euro Pair Short Trades!

Last week we saw a pullback in the crypto market, which is expected since some counters like Ethereum have run up close to 65% since the start of the year, so even if the bull-trend is to continue, we cannot expected it to go straight up without some zig-zags along the way.

Following up from some of the Euro short trades we shared a few weeks ago, we expected weakness in the EUR relative to many other currencies, and these trades have yielded between 400 to 900 pips profits per trade! Simply awesome!

The stock markets have also started turning down after hitting our predicted major resistance levels, so we expect the week ahead to be bearish or sideways. Still not seeing any major bullish catalysts for the stock markets.

[Photo: Bratislava, Slovakia – See my full travel photo log!]

For our weekly market wrap, we go through some of the trade calls and analysis from last week, which gives us valuable insights for the week ahead.

We cover 3 main markets with a total of 200+ counters, so we will never run out of trading opportunities:

Forex, CFDs, commodities, bonds
US stocks, ETFs, global stock indices
Cryptocurrencies, crypto indices

By covering a broad range of markets, we can focus our attention (and capital) on whichever market currently gives the best returns.

Forex Market Highlights

USD is the strongest currency, while EUR is the weakest. If you recall our series of posts a while back, we talked about various shorting options to take advantage of the weak Euro.

Product: Forex
Name: Aussie Dollar vs Canadian Dollar
Ticker: AUDCAD
Exchange: N/A

Analysis: Small rising wedge (bearish) after running into major resistance at the top of the wide range.

EP: 0.938
SL: 0.953
TP: 0.918, 0.900

Product: Forex
Name: Euro vs Aussie Dollar
Ticker: EURAUD
Exchange: N/A

Analysis: Following up from the last post, this pair has hit our profit target, with about 900+ pips profit! ????

Product: Forex
Name: Euro / NZ Dollar
Ticker: EURNZD
Exchange: N/A

Analysis: Following up from the last post, this has also hit our TP, netting us another 600+ pips profit! ????

Product: Forex
Name: Euro vs US Dollar
Ticker: EURUSD
Exchange: N/A

Analysis: Following up from the last post, we are currently about 400+ pips in the money.

EP: 1.13 to 1.15, or on pullbacks
SL: 1.16
TP: 1.055, 0.920

Product: Forex
Name: New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar
Ticker: NZDUSD
Exchange: N/A

Analysis: Bearish price action (pin bar) near the top of a trend channel, plus major resistance (blue line).

EP: 0.687 to 0.690
SL: 0.700
TP: 0.665

Commodities Market Highlights

Product: Commodity Index Fund
Name: iShares S&P Global Clean Energy Index Fund
Ticker: ICLN
Exchange: NASDAQ

Analysis: Following up, the ICLN has broken out of the bullish wedge, and might be started a major run up.

EP: 21 to 22, or on pullbacks
SL: 20
TP: 25 to 33

Stock & Bond Market Highlights

Product: US Stock Index
Name: NASDAQ 100
Ticker: US 100
Exchange: N/A

Analysis: Prices have run into resistance as expected, will we see a test of prior lows?

EP: 14689, or on pullbacks
SL: 15311
TP: 13018+

Crypto Market Highlights

Product: Cryptocurrency
Name: Ethereum
Ticker: ETHUSD
Exchange: N/A

Analysis: Following up, Ethereum is up 65% from its lows, and continuing to head towards the highs. Will continue to buy on pullbacks.

EP: 2000 to 2300
SL: 1900
TP: 4800+++

Product: Cryptocurrency
Name: Terra
Ticker: LUNAUSD
Exchange: N/A

Analysis: The breakout has taken place, so now we just need to hold on to our positions and wait!

EP: 97 to 100, or on pullbacks
SL: 87
TP: 150+

Good luck, and may next week bring more excellent profits!

Spencer Li

After trading for 18 years, reading 1500+ books, and mentoring 1000+ traders, I specialise in helping people improve their trading results, by using tested trading strategies, and making better decisions via decision science.

0 Comments/by Spencer Li

Weekly Market Wrap: The Crypto Bull Cycle is Back!

Market Analysis

With the stock markets running into strong resistance, this could be a critical point to see if it can push to test new highs and resume the uptrend.

As the war drags on, and inflation continues creeping upwards, it is also possible that the stock markets head into a period of sideways movement until the outcome of the war is clearer.

On a more positive note, the crypto bull market looks to be back on track after taking a 3-month break, which could likely take it to new highs.

[Photo: Sinaia, Romania – See my full travel photo log!]

For our weekly market wrap, we go through some of the trade calls and analysis from last week, which gives us valuable insights for the week ahead.

We cover 3 main markets with a total of 200+ counters, so we will never run out of trading opportunities:

Forex, CFDs, commodities, bonds
US stocks, ETFs, global stock indices
Cryptocurrencies, crypto indices

By covering a broad range of markets, we can focus our attention (and capital) on whichever market currently gives the best returns.

Forex Market Highlights

Bitcoin, USD and the commodity currencies continue to dominate.

JPY weakened a lot during the past week, leading to sharp moves in /JPY pairs.

Product: Forex
Name: New Zealand Dollar / Canadian Dollar
Ticker: NZDCAD
Exchange: N/A

Analysis: A mini double top near resistance.

EP: 0.865 to 0.869, or any pullbacks
SL: 0.882
TP: 0.835

Commodities Market Highlights

“The de facto buyers’ strike on Russian crude that began a month ago propelled oil prices to their highest levels in years. Now the real effects are starting to create a second wave of impact on oil markets, disrupting Russian exports and threatening further price increases. ”

https://www.wsj.com/articles/oil-prices-stay-high-as-russian-crude-shortage-hits-market-11648350193

Product: Commodity Index Fund
Name: WisdomTree Enhanced
Ticker: GCC
Exchange: NYSE

Analysis: Following up on the last post, it is forming a small consolidation at the 20-EMA. Getting ready for the next run.

EP: 25 to 26, or on pullbacks
SL: 24
TP: 32+

Stock & Bond Market Highlights

Nothing much has changed since our last post, as prices continue to move as predicted.

Crypto Market Highlights

Following up on Ethereum (ETH), it is now up 58.3% from its lows! ????

With an expected upgrade for Ethereum coming soon, I am more bullish on this than Bitcoin.

I alrdy have about 30% of my portfolio in crypto, with the bulk in Ethereum. If you do not yet have any positions, you can consider buying on any 5-10% pullbacks.

Product: Cryptocurrency
Name: Terra
Ticker: LUNAUSD
Exchange: N/A

Analysis: A potential cup and handle accumulation pattern forming. Keep an eye on the breakout! ?

EP: 97 to 100, or on pullbacks
SL: 87
TP: 150+

Good luck, and may next week bring more excellent profits!

Spencer Li

After trading for 18 years, reading 1500+ books, and mentoring 1000+ traders, I specialise in helping people improve their trading results, by using tested trading strategies, and making better decisions via decision science.

0 Comments/by Spencer Li

Weekly Market Wrap: Is it Finally Time for the Next Crypto Bull Run?

Market Analysis

As the Russian war reaches the 1-month mark, Russian forces are starting to dig in while focusing attacks on a few key fronts, while Ukrainian forces counter-attack and try to gain back ground.

As markets start to stabilise, stocks had some recovery, while commodities get ready to make new highs.

Crypto which has been quietly ranging is preparing for the next big bull run.

[Photo: Former nuclear missile base in Ukraine – See my full travel photo log!]

For our weekly market wrap, we go through some of the trade calls and analysis from last week, which gives us valuable insights for the week ahead.

We cover 3 main markets with a total of 200+ counters, so we will never run out of trading opportunities:

Forex, CFDs, commodities, bonds
US stocks, ETFs, global stock indices
Cryptocurrencies, crypto indices

By covering a broad range of markets, we can focus our attention (and capital) on whichever market currently gives the best returns.

Forex Market Highlights

The current top performers are the 3 commodity-linked currencies, followed by Gold and Bitcoin. This is in line with the strong inflation theme.

Following up on CHFJPY, it has exceeded our targets! Congrats! ????

Following up on GBPAUD, it has hit our TP and clocked a whopping 1480 pips profit! ????

Looks like there is another leg of downside move too.

Following up on GBPUSD, it has hit our target to precision as well, at the bottom of the channel! ????

Now, it will most likely rebound to the opposite side of the channel.

Commodities Market Highlights

Good chance to buy into the commodity ETF (GCC) after a pullback to the 20-EMA. Even if the war ends, inflation is likely to persist, due to:

– Supply chain or production disruptions due to new Covid surge
– Russia is a major exporter of commodities
– Ukraine is also a major exporter of commodities, and it will take a long time before production resumes

Can also consider buying the Clean Energy ETF (ICLN), as more countries will now try to move away from relying on oil.

Stock & Bond Market Highlights

Did a market poll on stocks (S&P 500), seems like the majority is either bullish or sideways. Personally I am more on the bearish side, but will not take any drastic action until the charts confirm.

Looking at the long-term (weekly) chart of the China general stock market ETF (2801), it might have hit the bottom after dropping 55%, finding support at the mega long-term trendline.

With rising interest rates, it is no surprise that bond prices continue to fall (inversely correlated).

Following up from my last predictions, our short positions in the 20+ year treasury bond ETF (TLT) continue to make new lows! ????

Looking at the NASDAQ 100 (US100), the short-term momentum is very strong, it will most likely head up another 5% or so to test the previous swing high.

I would either take a short-term long position, or stay out till price reaches that level.

Crypto Market Highlights

Market poll on Bitcoin (BTC), seems like the majority is either bullish or sideways.

Following up on the Crypto Total Market Cap, it has started to move up! ??

The key level to watch is the previous swing high (around $2T), which will confirm the start of the next bull run.

Good luck, and may next week bring more excellent profits!

Spencer Li

After trading for 18 years, reading 1500+ books, and mentoring 1000+ traders, I specialise in helping people improve their trading results, by using tested trading strategies, and making better decisions via decision science.

0 Comments/by Spencer Li

Weekly Market Wrap: Is a Ceasefire Coming Soon?

Market Analysis

As the war progresses into stalemate scenario (or rather a war of attrition), the challenge is to see who can hold out longer – the Russian economy against the sanctions or the Ukrainian military against the invaders.

With the drop of some commodities (after a long run-up), there is a possibility that the market is pricing in some form of ceasefire.

Even though stocks have recovered slightly, I do not see any bullish catalysts in the long run, since inflation is still climbing, and the interest rates have started rising.

[Photo: Old transport helicopter ? at The Stalin Line, Minsik, Belarus – See my full travel photo log!]

For our weekly market wrap, we go through some of the trade calls and analysis from last week, which gives us valuable insights for the week ahead.

We cover 3 main markets with a total of 200+ counters, so we will never run out of trading opportunities:

Forex, CFDs, commodities, bonds
US stocks, ETFs, global stock indices
Cryptocurrencies, crypto indices

By covering a broad range of markets, we can focus our attention (and capital) on whichever market currently gives the best returns.

Forex Market Highlights

Safe haven assets

Following up on EURNZD, it looks like it might start heading down again.

The EURUSD continues heading down as predicted, and is already about 300 pips in the money. ????

I’m expecting it to continue heading lower.

This can be seen in the run-up of the USDCHF to the top of the channel.

The first TP for USDSGD has been hit, we will need to see if it can continue to break new highs.

Commodities Market Highlights

Crude Oil surged up, then came back down 30%, could this be a sign that a ceasefire agreement is coming soon?

Commodity prices continue to climb. ????

Stock Market Highlights

Stocks have continued to fall as predicted, as can be seen on the NASDAQ 100 (US 100).

At the risk of sounding repetitive, I have been saying for the past few weeks to either stay out or be short on stocks.

So now we just need to ride the trend and add shorts on pullbacks for additional profit. ????

You can short by simply selling the QQQ, which is the ETF for the NASDAQ 100.

Strong movement on stocks today, as seen from the S&P 500 (US 500), but prices are at a crucial level, where all the key resistance levels and EMAs are right above it. I am still net bearish, until prices clear those resistances.

In times of crisis, the USD is perceived to be a safe haven, as seen from the strong uptrend in the US Dollar Index (DXY).

The stock is now 87% below its IPO price, leaving its two top shareholders — SoftBank and Uber — facing the potential for steep losses.

Crypto Market Highlights

After much sideways movement in cryptocurrencies, Ethereum (ETH) has managed to break out of its 3-month triangle consolidation.

If prices can hold above the breakout, and make new highs, there is a good chance of another crypto bull run.

Good luck, and may next week bring more excellent profits!

Spencer Li

After trading for 18 years, reading 1500+ books, and mentoring 1000+ traders, I specialise in helping people improve their trading results, by using tested trading strategies, and making better decisions via decision science.

0 Comments/by Spencer Li

Weekly Market Wrap: Riding the Market Down-Wave

Market Analysis

Last week, as the Russian invasion of Ukraine continued, we continued to ride on the wave of our existing positions. This includes being bearish on stocks and bullish on commodities. In this week’s analysis, we compare the different sectors and look at a long-term strategic approach to position our portfolio for the upcoming weeks/months.

[Photo: The New Safe Confinement (NSC or New Shelter) is a structure built to confine the remains of the number 4 reactor unit at the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant, in Ukraine, which was destroyed during the Chernobyl disaster in 1986 – See my full travel photo log!]

For our weekly market wrap, we go through some of the trade calls and analysis from last week, which gives us valuable insights for the week ahead.

We cover 3 main markets with a total of 200+ counters, so we will never run out of trading opportunities:

Forex, CFDs, commodities, bonds
US stocks, ETFs, global stock indices
Cryptocurrencies, crypto indices

By covering a broad range of markets, we can focus our attention (and capital) on whichever market currently gives the best returns.

Forex Market Highlights

On the forex front, we have Gold and Bitcoin as the strongest performers, which is not surprising during these risk-off times.

AUD, NZD and CAD are commodity exporters, so they are bullish as well.

At the bottom we have GBP and EUR who are likely to be most affected by the economic fallout and the situation in Europe.

I’ll be sharing 4 long-term weekly charts below of the EUR, which all show bearishness of the EUR in the long run. You can use these to accumulate short positions when there are pullbacks.

EURAUD, EURCAD, EURJPY (not shown), EURUSD (not shown)

USD appreciating almost 50% against the Russian Ruble within the past few days.

Commodities Market Highlights

Comparison of all asset classes since the start of this year, we can see that not all are positive.

GCC is the top performer by a wider margin. ???

On the commodities front, I have a huge chunk of my portfolio in commodities, mostly GCC, with additional positions in PALL and PPLT.

GCC is the general commodities index with a mix of energy, metals, agriculture, etc.

PALL is an ETF for Palladium, which has gone up a lot since Russia is a major exporter of it.
PPLT is an ETF for Platinum, another important metal.

With the ongoing conflict and inflation, commodities are likely to continue climbing higher.

Something I am looking at next is ICLN, an ETF for renewable energy.

PALL is up 70+% from its lows in Dec 2021, when it was one of the worst performers for that year.

I have been bullish on Palladium and Platinum since late last year, and they have gone up 20-50% since the bottom.

GCC is up about 27% from the recent swing lows.

Stock Market Highlights

Now, let’s move on to stocks.

Stocks have been quite volatile, so I only have about 10% weightage in my portfolio currently, and I’m planning to selectively add more.

The general indices like the S&P 500, NASDAQ, Dow Jones seem pretty bearish, so instead of buying those, I am buying those high growth stock ETFs which have been sold down a lot, such as ARKK and ARKG.

The Metaverse play seems to have died down a bit, so I’m not planning to add more to my Metaverse ETF (META).

I’m planning to add to these 2 ETFs today, or some time this week:

CIBR- An ETF on cybersecurity

PPA – An ETF on aerospace and defense

With more global conflicts looming in the future, these 2 ETFs have much potential.

NASDAQ 100 (US 100) – Prices are currently below all the moving averages, will it be able to get back above? (Sell signal based on chart.)

In the last sell-down, the First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR) only corrected about 20%, and it looks like it recently broke out of a large bull flag.

Wow GRAB dropped 37% in one day!

The iShares S&P Global Clean Energy Index Fund (ICLN) has been battered down about 50% in the last sell-down, but is starting to show signs of buying recently.

A similar-looking bull flag pattern on the Invesco Aerospace & Defense ETF (PPA), which recently brought it to new ATHs.

Crypto Market Highlights

With BTC and ETH looking to stage a bullish reversal, let’s take a look at the weekly chart of the Crypto Total Market Cap. This is an aggregate index of all the different crypto tokens.

It is an overall uptrend channel, with both corrections to the channel bottom approximating 50%, and currently it is at the channel bottom.

Could this be the start of the next big bull run?

Following up on Bitcoin (BTCUSD), it had an incredible surge of almost 15% yesterday! ????

Similarly for Ethereum (ETHUSD)

Good luck, and may next week bring more excellent profits!

P.S. Sorry this week’s updates are a little late, I have been busy preparing a summary of the Russian-Ukraine conflict which I will share later tonight!

Spencer Li

After trading for 18 years, reading 1500+ books, and mentoring 1000+ traders, I specialise in helping people improve their trading results, by using tested trading strategies, and making better decisions via decision science.

0 Comments/by Spencer Li

Weekly Market Wrap: Taking Profit for Euro Pair Short Trades!

Forex Market Highlights

Commodities Market Highlights

Stock & Bond Market Highlights

Crypto Market Highlights

Weekly Market Wrap: The Crypto Bull Cycle is Back!

Forex Market Highlights

Commodities Market Highlights

Stock & Bond Market Highlights

Crypto Market Highlights

Weekly Market Wrap: Is it Finally Time for the Next Crypto Bull Run?

Forex Market Highlights

Commodities Market Highlights

Stock & Bond Market Highlights

Crypto Market Highlights

Weekly Market Wrap: Is a Ceasefire Coming Soon?

Forex Market Highlights

Commodities Market Highlights

Stock Market Highlights

Crypto Market Highlights

Weekly Market Wrap: Riding the Market Down-Wave

Forex Market Highlights

Commodities Market Highlights

Stock Market Highlights

Crypto Market Highlights

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