Last week, as the Russian invasion of Ukraine continued, we continued to ride on the wave of our existing positions. This includes being bearish on stocks and bullish on commodities. In this week’s analysis, we compare the different sectors and look at a long-term strategic approach to position our portfolio for the upcoming weeks/months.
[Photo: The New Safe Confinement (NSC or New Shelter) is a structure built to confine the remains of the number 4 reactor unit at the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant, in Ukraine, which was destroyed during the Chernobyl disaster in 1986 – See my full travel photo log!]
For our weekly market wrap, we go through some of the trade calls and analysis from last week, which gives us valuable insights for the week ahead.
We cover 3 main markets with a total of 200+ counters, so we will never run out of trading opportunities:
USD appreciating almost 50% against the Russian Ruble within the past few days.
Commodities Market Highlights
Comparison of all asset classes since the start of this year, we can see that not all are positive.
GCC is the top performer by a wider margin. ???
On the commodities front, I have a huge chunk of my portfolio in commodities, mostly GCC, with additional positions in PALL and PPLT.
GCC is the general commodities index with a mix of energy, metals, agriculture, etc.
PALL is an ETF for Palladium, which has gone up a lot since Russia is a major exporter of it.
PPLT is an ETF for Platinum, another important metal.
With the ongoing conflict and inflation, commodities are likely to continue climbing higher.
Something I am looking at next is ICLN, an ETF for renewable energy.
PALL is up 70+% from its lows in Dec 2021, when it was one of the worst performers for that year.
I have been bullish on Palladium and Platinum since late last year, and they have gone up 20-50% since the bottom.
GCC is up about 27% from the recent swing lows.
Stock Market Highlights
Now, let’s move on to stocks.
Stocks have been quite volatile, so I only have about 10% weightage in my portfolio currently, and I’m planning to selectively add more.
The general indices like the S&P 500, NASDAQ, Dow Jones seem pretty bearish, so instead of buying those, I am buying those high growth stock ETFs which have been sold down a lot, such as ARKK and ARKG.
The Metaverse play seems to have died down a bit, so I’m not planning to add more to my Metaverse ETF (META).
I’m planning to add to these 2 ETFs today, or some time this week:
CIBR- An ETF on cybersecurity
PPA – An ETF on aerospace and defense
With more global conflicts looming in the future, these 2 ETFs have much potential.
NASDAQ 100 (US 100) – Prices are currently below all the moving averages, will it be able to get back above? (Sell signal based on chart.)
In the last sell-down, the First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR) only corrected about 20%, and it looks like it recently broke out of a large bull flag.
Wow GRAB dropped 37% in one day!
The iShares S&P Global Clean Energy Index Fund (ICLN) has been battered down about 50% in the last sell-down, but is starting to show signs of buying recently.
A similar-looking bull flag pattern on the Invesco Aerospace & Defense ETF (PPA), which recently brought it to new ATHs.
Crypto Market Highlights
With BTC and ETH looking to stage a bullish reversal, let’s take a look at the weekly chart of the Crypto Total Market Cap. This is an aggregate index of all the different crypto tokens.
It is an overall uptrend channel, with both corrections to the channel bottom approximating 50%, and currently it is at the channel bottom.
Could this be the start of the next big bull run?
Following up on Bitcoin (BTCUSD), it had an incredible surge of almost 15% yesterday! ????
Spencer is an avid globetrotter who achieved financial freedom in his 20s, while trading & teaching across 70+ countries. As a former professional trader in private equity and proprietary funds, he has over 15 years of market experience, and has been featured on more than 20 occasions in the media.