As the Russian war reaches the 1-month mark, Russian forces are starting to dig in while focusing attacks on a few key fronts, while Ukrainian forces counter-attack and try to gain back ground.
As markets start to stabilise, stocks had some recovery, while commodities get ready to make new highs.
Crypto which has been quietly ranging is preparing for the next big bull run.
The current top performers are the 3 commodity-linked currencies, followed by Gold and Bitcoin. This is in line with the strong inflation theme.
Following up on CHFJPY, it has exceeded our targets! Congrats! ????
Following up on GBPAUD, it has hit our TP and clocked a whopping 1480 pips profit! ????
Looks like there is another leg of downside move too.
Following up on GBPUSD, it has hit our target to precision as well, at the bottom of the channel! ????
Now, it will most likely rebound to the opposite side of the channel.
Commodities Market Highlights
Good chance to buy into the commodity ETF (GCC) after a pullback to the 20-EMA. Even if the war ends, inflation is likely to persist, due to:
– Supply chain or production disruptions due to new Covid surge
– Russia is a major exporter of commodities
– Ukraine is also a major exporter of commodities, and it will take a long time before production resumes
Can also consider buying the Clean Energy ETF (ICLN), as more countries will now try to move away from relying on oil.
Stock & Bond Market Highlights
Did a market poll on stocks (S&P 500), seems like the majority is either bullish or sideways. Personally I am more on the bearish side, but will not take any drastic action until the charts confirm.
Looking at the long-term (weekly) chart of the China general stock market ETF (2801), it might have hit the bottom after dropping 55%, finding support at the mega long-term trendline.
With rising interest rates, it is no surprise that bond prices continue to fall (inversely correlated).
Following up from my last predictions, our short positions in the 20+ year treasury bond ETF (TLT) continue to make new lows! ????
Looking at the NASDAQ 100 (US100), the short-term momentum is very strong, it will most likely head up another 5% or so to test the previous swing high.
I would either take a short-term long position, or stay out till price reaches that level.
Crypto Market Highlights
Market poll on Bitcoin (BTC), seems like the majority is either bullish or sideways.
Following up on the Crypto Total Market Cap, it has started to move up! ??
The key level to watch is the previous swing high (around $2T), which will confirm the start of the next bull run.
After trading for 20+ years, reading 1500+ books, and mentoring 1000+ traders, I specialise in helping people create a second source of income via swing trading, with just 15 minutes a day.
https://synapsetrading.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/odessa-ukraine-nuclear-base.jpg15122016Spencer Lihttps://synapsetrading.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/logo.jpgSpencer Li2022-03-26 14:03:502022-04-30 17:44:03Weekly Market Wrap: Is it Finally Time for the Next Crypto Bull Run?
As the war progresses into stalemate scenario (or rather a war of attrition), the challenge is to see who can hold out longer – the Russian economy against the sanctions or the Ukrainian military against the invaders.
With the drop of some commodities (after a long run-up), there is a possibility that the market is pricing in some form of ceasefire.
Even though stocks have recovered slightly, I do not see any bullish catalysts in the long run, since inflation is still climbing, and the interest rates have started rising.
Following up on EURNZD, it looks like it might start heading down again.
The EURUSD continues heading down as predicted, and is already about 300 pips in the money. ????
I’m expecting it to continue heading lower.
This can be seen in the run-up of the USDCHF to the top of the channel.
The first TP for USDSGD has been hit, we will need to see if it can continue to break new highs.
Commodities Market Highlights
Crude Oil surged up, then came back down 30%, could this be a sign that a ceasefire agreement is coming soon?
Commodity prices continue to climb. ????
Stock Market Highlights
Stocks have continued to fall as predicted, as can be seen on the NASDAQ 100 (US 100).
At the risk of sounding repetitive, I have been saying for the past few weeks to either stay out or be short on stocks.
So now we just need to ride the trend and add shorts on pullbacks for additional profit. ????
You can short by simply selling the QQQ, which is the ETF for the NASDAQ 100.
Strong movement on stocks today, as seen from the S&P 500 (US 500), but prices are at a crucial level, where all the key resistance levels and EMAs are right above it. I am still net bearish, until prices clear those resistances.
In times of crisis, the USD is perceived to be a safe haven, as seen from the strong uptrend in the US Dollar Index (DXY).
The stock is now 87% below its IPO price, leaving its two top shareholders — SoftBank and Uber — facing the potential for steep losses.
Crypto Market Highlights
After much sideways movement in cryptocurrencies, Ethereum (ETH) has managed to break out of its 3-month triangle consolidation.
If prices can hold above the breakout, and make new highs, there is a good chance of another crypto bull run.
After trading for 20+ years, reading 1500+ books, and mentoring 1000+ traders, I specialise in helping people create a second source of income via swing trading, with just 15 minutes a day.
Last week, as the Russian invasion of Ukraine continued, we continued to ride on the wave of our existing positions. This includes being bearish on stocks and bullish on commodities. In this week’s analysis, we compare the different sectors and look at a long-term strategic approach to position our portfolio for the upcoming weeks/months.
[Photo: The New Safe Confinement (NSC or New Shelter) is a structure built to confine the remains of the number 4 reactor unit at the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant, in Ukraine, which was destroyed during the Chernobyl disaster in 1986 – See my full travel photo log!]
For our weekly market wrap, we go through some of the trade calls and analysis from last week, which gives us valuable insights for the week ahead.
We cover 3 main markets with a total of 200+ counters, so we will never run out of trading opportunities:
On the forex front, we have Gold and Bitcoin as the strongest performers, which is not surprising during these risk-off times.
AUD, NZD and CAD are commodity exporters, so they are bullish as well.
At the bottom we have GBP and EUR who are likely to be most affected by the economic fallout and the situation in Europe.
I’ll be sharing 4 long-term weekly charts below of the EUR, which all show bearishness of the EUR in the long run. You can use these to accumulate short positions when there are pullbacks.
USD appreciating almost 50% against the Russian Ruble within the past few days.
Commodities Market Highlights
Comparison of all asset classes since the start of this year, we can see that not all are positive.
GCC is the top performer by a wider margin. ???
On the commodities front, I have a huge chunk of my portfolio in commodities, mostly GCC, with additional positions in PALL and PPLT.
GCC is the general commodities index with a mix of energy, metals, agriculture, etc.
PALL is an ETF for Palladium, which has gone up a lot since Russia is a major exporter of it.
PPLT is an ETF for Platinum, another important metal.
With the ongoing conflict and inflation, commodities are likely to continue climbing higher.
Something I am looking at next is ICLN, an ETF for renewable energy.
PALL is up 70+% from its lows in Dec 2021, when it was one of the worst performers for that year.
I have been bullish on Palladium and Platinum since late last year, and they have gone up 20-50% since the bottom.
GCC is up about 27% from the recent swing lows.
Stock Market Highlights
Now, let’s move on to stocks.
Stocks have been quite volatile, so I only have about 10% weightage in my portfolio currently, and I’m planning to selectively add more.
The general indices like the S&P 500, NASDAQ, Dow Jones seem pretty bearish, so instead of buying those, I am buying those high growth stock ETFs which have been sold down a lot, such as ARKK and ARKG.
The Metaverse play seems to have died down a bit, so I’m not planning to add more to my Metaverse ETF (META).
I’m planning to add to these 2 ETFs today, or some time this week:
CIBR- An ETF on cybersecurity
PPA – An ETF on aerospace and defense
With more global conflicts looming in the future, these 2 ETFs have much potential.
NASDAQ 100 (US 100) – Prices are currently below all the moving averages, will it be able to get back above? (Sell signal based on chart.)
In the last sell-down, the First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR) only corrected about 20%, and it looks like it recently broke out of a large bull flag.
Wow GRAB dropped 37% in one day!
The iShares S&P Global Clean Energy Index Fund (ICLN) has been battered down about 50% in the last sell-down, but is starting to show signs of buying recently.
A similar-looking bull flag pattern on the Invesco Aerospace & Defense ETF (PPA), which recently brought it to new ATHs.
Crypto Market Highlights
With BTC and ETH looking to stage a bullish reversal, let’s take a look at the weekly chart of the Crypto Total Market Cap. This is an aggregate index of all the different crypto tokens.
It is an overall uptrend channel, with both corrections to the channel bottom approximating 50%, and currently it is at the channel bottom.
Could this be the start of the next big bull run?
Following up on Bitcoin (BTCUSD), it had an incredible surge of almost 15% yesterday! ????
Good luck, and may next week bring more excellent profits!
P.S. Sorry this week’s updates are a little late, I have been busy preparing a summary of the Russian-Ukraine conflict which I will share later tonight!
After trading for 20+ years, reading 1500+ books, and mentoring 1000+ traders, I specialise in helping people create a second source of income via swing trading, with just 15 minutes a day.
As most of you already know, Russia recently invaded Ukraine from multiple directions, trying to take over the whole country, and creating a potential WW3 disaster.
But how did this all start? Who are the different parties? And how can it end?
It probably started way back in the Cold War between the Western powers and the USSR, and after the dissolution of the USSR, many of the former countries of the USSR (Moldova, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia) near the Russian border started to join NATO and the EU, which started to make Russia worried.
Afraid that Georgia might be next, Russia invaded Georgia in 2008, under the pretext of supporting South Ossetia (a pro-Russian breakaway state in Georgia), as a warning to them not to get too close to the West.
Without going back to the whole Cold War era, the current conflict can be traced back to 2014 when Ukraine held protests to oust the current government (which was more pro-Russia), and replaced it with the current government (more pro-EU and NATO).
Ukraine is a huge country, made out of many ethnic groups, but mainly the East is more pro-Russian (in terms of language of culture), as compared to the West which is more liberal and speaks Ukrainian. Note that this does not mean the East wants to merge with Russia, it’s just that they have more common roots.
When this change of government happened (still in 2014), Russia (or rather Putin), was worried that this might lead to Ukraine being closer to the West (US, EU, NATO), which Putin considers as enemies from the Cold War era, so to prevent that from happening, he decided to invade Ukraine starting with the more “pro-Russian” territories (Crimea, Donbas area which includes Donetsk and Luhansk).
It is not clear exactly whether the people in these regions really want to be part of Russia. My guess is that a certain portion of them do, which Russia took advantage of, using propaganda to stoke separatist sentiments, while sending people and troops to catalyse conflict.
Crimea was quickly taken over via convert operations, whereas the war in Donbas has been ongoing since 2014, with the Ukrainian government armies (and volunteers) fighting against separatists and Russian military. (Although Russia does not admit that they are sending in troops to support the conflict.) This war has been going on at the East edge of Ukraine since 2014, claiming an estimated 10,000 lives so far.
With this ongoing war, it is no surprise Ukraine wants to join the EU and NATO to protect itself from Russia, but the closer they get to the West, the more Russia gets agitated, till Putin finally decided to go for an all-out invasion of the whole country.
How will things likely play out?
It is hard to see how this can end, since Putin (and his small closed circle) controls all the power, so protests within Russia can be quelled by force.
Sanctions and isolation will topple their economy, but will it push Putin to more desperate measures? Will Russia become another North Korea? Even if Russia manages to crush Ukraine and take over the country, will they be able to hold it? And at what cost? It will be a pyrrhic victory at the expense of their own country.
My guess is Russia doesn’t intend to hold Ukraine, and just wants to wreck the country and teach it a lesson, to scare them from joining the West (EU, NATO), and also to serve as a warning to other countries nearby who plan to do so.
This means once they have gained control of the main parts of the country, they will use it as leverage to negotiate a peace treaty which involves giving Russia some of Ukraine territories (and also officially recognising Crimea and Donbas as part of Russia), and include a clause that Ukraine will never join EU and NATO. Alternatively, Russia might plan to install a pro-Russian puppet government in Ukraine, and indirectly rule the Ukrainian people by force.
As long as the West does not intervene directly, Russia will most likely win the war by sheer numerical superiority, and Russia can get what it wants, but the price is heavy (Russian economy), and leaves generations of Ukrainians (and most of the world) hating Russia.
Youtube Videos
Good explainer video on the whole situation.
Historian Yuval Noah Harari (bestselling author of “Sapiens” and “Homo Deus”) provides important context on the Russian invasion, including Ukraine’s long history of resistance, the specter of nuclear war and his view of why, even if Putin wins all the military battles, he’s already lost the war.
John J. Mearsheimer, the R. Wendell Harrison Distinguished Service Professor in Political Science and Co-director of the Program on International Security Policy at the University of Chicago, assesses the causes of the present Ukraine crisis, the best way to end it, and its consequences for all of the main actors. A key assumption is that in order to come up with the optimum plan for ending the crisis, it is essential to know what caused the crisis. Regarding the all-important question of causes, the key issue is whether Russia or the West bears primary responsibility.
A vocal critic of the Russian leadership is Garry Kasparov, the chess grandmaster who repeatedly ranked world number one for 20 years before turning his attention to politics. He tells leaders to “help Ukraine fight against the monster you helped create.”
Ukraine and Russia’s conflict goes back to 2014, when Russia invaded and annexed Crimea and Russian-backed separatist forces took over parts of southeastern Ukraine’s Donbas region. But to understand the full context behind the invasion, it’s important to go even farther back, to the time when Europe’s current-day divisions began, and see how that shaped Europe’s power balance today.
As Western powers move to punish Russia for its aggression, China has a delicate balance to strike between a desire to help its ally and the need to insulate itself from further sanctions. China has been supplying electronics, machinery and electronic goods to Russia. But it is remains open how much aid China is able – or willing – to provide.
In this 2015 documentary, FRONTLINE traces Vladimir Putin’s ascent from unemployed spy to modern-day czar, and investigates the accusations of criminality and corruption that have surrounded his reign in Russia.
On September 27, 2018, Yale’s Program in Russian, East European and Eurasian Studies, and the Poynter Fellowship for Journalism hosted Vladimir Pozner, the acclaimed Russian-American journalist and broadcaster. Pozner spoke on the impact of US foreign policy towards Russia after the Soviet Union has been disbanded, and shared his opinions on a range of issues raised by the audience, from the alleged Russian interference in the 2016 US presidential elections, to Skripal poisoning, to the state of independent media in Russia and the US.
What is your average Ukrainian and Russian Infantryman thinking?
Russian Military ability is called into question. Can the Ukraine armed forces hold out long enoug to repel the Russian invasion?
What western military analysts miss and we track the Russian invasion minute by minute.
Day 13 of the Russian invasion and Kyiv hasn’t fallen yet. Russian forces begin to set in for a longer battle. What will happen?
On December 25, 1991, the Soviet Union collapsed. Along with it came hope for the end of the Cold War, for independence and freedom for the former Soviet republics. But for many it also brought poverty and war. What remains of the dreams of that time? The documentary includes contemporary witnesses and politicians of the decisive years and shows what has become of the legacy of a world power.
Putin is taking over land, but losing the war.
An epic blunder by Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko has revealed Putin’s military strategy in eastern Europe. Lukashenko’s map appeared to show a planned Russian offensive on Moldova. Could this ex-Soviet state be Putin’s next target?
The Failed Logistics of Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine
The inside story of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s conflict with the United States.
This film asks young people from St. Petersburg to Eastern Siberia how they feel about life in today’s more powerful yet also more unstable country. Some are fanatical Putin supporters, while others are opposition activists. We look behind the barbed wire around a closed Siberian city, visit a Muslim village in Tatarstan, and talk to young Muscovites. And we also see how the Russian education system instils children with the regime’s propaganda from an early age.
Since March 2014, 30 Crimean Muslim Tatars have been imprisoned on charges of “extremism”. Forty-four activists have been abducted, 19 of whom are still missing, while six have been found dead. The Federal Security Service of the Russian Federation, known as the FSB, is allegedly the main culprit behind these incidents.
With Ukraine once again in the spotlight, revisit “The Battle for Ukraine,” in which filmmaker James Jones documented both sides of the fight in 2014 between Ukraine’s ultra-nationalist group, Right Sector, and a militant, pro-Russia group called Stronghold. Drawing on personal and dramatic footage, Jones (“Secret State of North Korea”) documented deep-seated hatreds between right-wing Ukrainians with historic ties to the Nazis, and violent pro-Russian separatists vying for control of the country.
The latest peace talks on the Ukraine war end without a breakthrough. Can anyone stop Putin?
While the world is watching the ongoing Ukraine-Russia conflict unfold, many countries condemn Russia’s aggression against Ukraine. But what about China, which is supposed to be one of Russia’s biggest allies? We hit the streets of Shanghai to get Chinese citizen’s reaction to the ongoing Ukraine-Russia conflict and to hear what they think about Russia and Putin in general.
As an uneasy ceasefire continues to hold in Eastern Ukraine, VICE News returns to Donetsk with an exclusive film that follows some of the characters involved in setting up the self-proclaimed state of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR).
As the armed conflict between the Ukrainian army and Russian-backed separatists enters its third year, VICE travels to the frontline to take a closer look at what international assistance really looks like for those caught in the line of fire.
VICE News travels to Russia to investigate the mysterious deaths of dozens — possibly hundreds — of active-duty Russian servicemen who are believed to have been killed in Ukraine. Accounts gathered from soldiers’ families, human rights workers, and government officials cast doubt on the Kremlin narrative, revealing the unacknowledged sacrifices borne by Russia’s ghost army.
Binkov analyzes various possibilities if Russia does end up sending its military force to attack Ukraine. How would the military conflict go? Where might Russia stop? What would the economic and political fallout be both for Russia and the rest of the world?
Topic of this video is Ukraine’s military. What state is it in today? How many troops and weapon systems does it have? What are its strengths and weaknesses? We try to be as up to date as possible, which is quite hard, given the ever ongoing changes due to the war.
Twitter Threads & Tik Tok
Let’s discuss Putin speech. He declared Ukrainians to be “Neonazis” and promised to “denazify” them. Indeed the “Nazi” character of Ukrainian statehood and identity has long been a central thesis of Russian propaganda. Let’s discuss why and how it reflects ideology of Putinism? pic.twitter.com/UDGtRTj89r
Four days since the invasion began. In the past 24 hours, we have seen limited Russian progress according to multiple sources. My 4th set of observations, noting the ongoing lack of clarity & abundance of ambiguity. 1/24 pic.twitter.com/0DxKXIHRtr
— Major General (just retired!) Mick Ryan (@WarintheFuture) February 27, 2022
THREAD I know it sounds contra-intuitive, but it feels that Russia and its army are about to collapse. RU obviously has no reserves left: the tanks they send to the front are very old, without active armor, look like training machines. They do not have trucks, using civilian ones
After trading for 20+ years, reading 1500+ books, and mentoring 1000+ traders, I specialise in helping people create a second source of income via swing trading, with just 15 minutes a day.
In this risk-off mode, people are moving back to safe haven assets.
EURJPY – Congrats to those who took the pullback opportunity to enter the trade, netting a profit of 200+ pips! ????
Can consider taking profits now after such a climatic move.
Product: Forex
Name: British Pound / US Dollar
Ticker: GBPUSD
Exchange: N/A
Analysis: Price coming down after hitting the top of trend channel.
EP: 1.355 to 1.350, or any pullbacks
SL: 1.365
TP: 1.32+
Following up on the USDSGD, it is starting to move up again. The previous price dip was a good buying opportunity, as prices stayed above the SL.
Commodities Market Highlights
Following up on Crude oil, it has gone past $100 as predicted, and the momentum is very strong due to fundamental factors.
It’s a trade-off, depending on your risk preference. Shorting earlier has lower success rate but higher RR, while waiting for more confirmation has higher success rate but lower RR.
Analysis: Due to the risk-off climate, the price of gold has spiked up significantly, and is looking to surpass the $2000 level soon.
EP: Buy on any pullbacks
SL: $1875
TP: $2070++
Stock Market Highlights
Following up on the NASDAQ 100 (US 100), I said to close all longs and go short once that level is broken, and that happened about 4 days ago.
By now, all our shorts are comfortably in the money.
I also mentioned to take profit on growth stocks, which was just in time before the collapse.
Now, we can continue to ride our short positions as the Russia-Ukraine situation plays out.
Looking at the chart of the NASDAQ, the downtrend is still in progress, and I don’t really see any bullish catalysts at the moment.
Even if Russia calls off the attack, the market was already bearish before that, because of inflation, interest rates, Covid, etc.
Crypto Market Highlights
Following up on Bitcoin (BTCUSD), it unexpectedly was not able to hold the $40k price level, but the uptrend is still intact, so I will be watching to see where this pullback ends.
After trading for 20+ years, reading 1500+ books, and mentoring 1000+ traders, I specialise in helping people create a second source of income via swing trading, with just 15 minutes a day.
