Market Analysis – Page 38 – Synapse Trading

Weekly Market Wrap: Ethereum (ETH) Breaks Above $2000!

For our “Daily Trading Signals”, we have now also included a “Weekly Market Report”, where we provide a weekly deep-dive on the market, including fundamentals, technicals, economics, and portfolio management:

Click here for our most recent market report (10 April 2023)
Click here to see the archives of all our past market reports

We cover 3 main markets with a total of 200+ counters, so we will never run out of trading opportunities:

Forex, CFDs, commodities, bonds
US stocks, ETFs, global stock indices
Cryptocurrencies, crypto indices

By covering a broad range of markets, we can focus our attention (and capital) on whichever market currently gives the best returns.

[Photo: Neuschwanstein Castle, Schwangau, Germany – See my full travel photo log from trading & travelling!]

Market Recap & Upcoming Week

Last week, the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average experienced fluctuations as inflation in March dropped to its lowest level in almost two years, increasing optimism among investors. The March CPI report showed falling energy prices, rising services prices, and a slowdown in food inflation. Investors should keep an eye on durable goods prices as their increase could signal more challenges for inflation.

Gold prices surged to their highest level of the year, reflecting a 13% increase year to date. Despite slowing inflation data, investors anticipate the Federal Reserve scaling back its rate-hiking campaign due to concerns about economic weakness. Used vehicle prices, which spiked in 2020-2021, started to drop in early 2022, but the not-seasonally-adjusted CPI for used vehicles increased by 1.0% in March, suggesting the drop in used vehicle CPI may be over.

Ethereum (ETH) broke to news highs, and the Shapella Upgrade successfully boosted the price of ETH, even though it enabled withdrawals from the Beacon Chain. Staking inflows have risen for four consecutive days, reflecting bullish sentiment towards Ethereum after its shift to a Proof-of-Stake protocol.

Singapore’s economy grew by a mere 0.1% year-on-year in Q1 2023 due to a decline in manufacturing, and the country risks entering a technical recession if growth continues to slow in Q2 2023. JPMorgan, Citi, Wells Fargo, and PNC Financial reported their results, with mixed outcomes for their stocks.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) warned of a larger deficit in the oil market due to surprise production cuts from OPEC’s leading members, which could send crude prices higher and worsen inflation.

In the upcoming week, earnings season will be in full swing, with reports from major companies such as Johnson & Johnson, Bank of America, Netflix, Lockheed Martin, Tesla, Morgan Stanley, IBM, American Express, and Procter & Gamble. Updates on the housing market, inflation readings from the U.K., eurozone, and Japan, and Q1 GDP figures from China will also become available.

Daily Trading Signals

Here are some of the real-time signals and price alerts that were triggered during the week. There were a lot of profitable forex trades, but the biggest profits came from our trade on Ethereum, which has been up by more than 20%!

Ethereum (ETHUSD) – Short-term momentum is still very strong, as prices blew past $2,000.

Congrats to all those who took this trade! 💰🔥💪🏻

Can consider taking half profits and continue riding the uptrend.

Actually will probably go to $2k soon, so can wait a while more.

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) – Prices broke out from the symmetrical triangle, and above $30,000, which is an important psychological price level.

Looks like it will continue going higher.

USDCHF – Congrats to those who took this trade, I did not expect the TP to be hit that fast! 💰🔥💪🏻

There is strong support around 0.88, so you might want to consider taking half profits and trailing the rest.

USDSGD – Now that prices have broke down from the bear flag, I won’t be surprised if the prior low gets tested.

Dow Jones Index (US30) – Long shadows near the trendlines have so far led to price rejections and price moving to the opposite side of the price channel.

CHFJPY – Prices breaking out from a period of consolidation.

Spencer Li

After trading for 18 years, reading 1500+ books, and mentoring 1000+ traders, I specialise in helping people improve their trading results, by using tested trading strategies, and making better decisions via decision science.

0 Comments/by Spencer Li

Weekly Market Wrap: Upcoming Earnings Season & Inflation Data!

Market Analysis

The upcoming week will see the beginning of the earnings season, with reports from major banks and financial institutions, including JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, BlackRock, and PNC Financial Services. Earnings for S&P 500 companies are projected to fall by 6.6%, marking the largest quarterly decline since Q2 2020.

The Federal Reserve will release meeting minutes from its most recent policy meeting on Wednesday, and markets will be watching closely on the tone and words used, to provide guidance for future rate policy direction.

Inflation reports for March will be released, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) scheduled for Wednesday and the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Thursday. Prices are projected to have risen by 0.3% in March, while year-over-year CPI is expected to be up just over 5%. The PPI is anticipated to remain unchanged from last month, with an annual increase of 3.1%.

The U.S. Census Bureau will report on March retail sales on Friday, providing a key update on consumer spending. Sales are projected to have fallen by 0.4% last month and are expected to rise 4% to 6% this year.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank Spring 2023 annual meetings will begin on Monday in Washington D.C. These events will gather global leaders to discuss issues such as the world economic outlook, poverty eradication, economic development, and aid effectiveness.

[Photo: Zion National Park, USA – See my full travel photo log!]

For our weekly market wrap, we go through some of the trade calls and analysis from last week, which gives us valuable insights for the week ahead.

We cover 3 main markets with a total of 200+ counters, so we will never run out of trading opportunities:

Forex, CFDs, commodities, bonds
US stocks, ETFs, global stock indices
Cryptocurrencies, crypto indices

By covering a broad range of markets, we can focus our attention (and capital) on whichever market currently gives the best returns.

Weekly Market Outlook Video

Weekly Market Outlook (02 April 2023)

📌 Markets seem to be expecting Fed cutting rates in Q3 this year (4 months time)
📌 Stock markets are bullish in the short-run
📌 USD is weakening, while Gold & Crypto (ETH breakout) is gaining strength
📌 GPB is bullish while CAD is bearish
📌 Looking to accumulate long-term bonds (TLT) in my portfolio
📌 Bearish on Crude Oil and Commodities

Portfolio Highlights

Weekly Portfolio Updates (2 April 2023)

Even though stocks rallied slightly, bonds (TLT) rallied as well, providing a buffer against our short positions.

I also decided to add some commodity (DBC) short positions, since I don’t think this oil rally is sustainable if demand drops.

Forex & Commodities Market Highlights

AUDCAD – Finally the TP is hit, giving a whooping profit of 350+ pips! Congrats to all who took the trade! 💰🔥💪🏻

AUDNZD – Breaking down from range, in line with the downtrend. Probably heading to test prior lows.

CADCHF – Following up on this, it is the 2nd time pricing are testing the neckline.

EURCAD – Following up on this, and what I said in the video, the pullback after the breakout is a good low-risk entry.

GBPCAD – Great low-risk opportunity for a long trade.

Crude Oil (WTICOUSD) – Prices spiked up due to production cuts, but the overall trend is still down.

If prices close back down into the price channel, the downtrend is likely to continue.

I am looking for shorting opportunities on this, and commodity ETFs like DBC.

Stock & Bond Market Highlights

NASDAQ 100 (US100) – There might be enough momentum to push it to test the prior swing high, but don’t see much more bullish catalysts for it to break above that.

Also seeing some price divergence on the RSI.

3 months relative performance.

Top U.S. banks by uninsured deposits.

Crypto Market Highlights

Ethereum (ETHUSD) – Breakout of small ascending triangle, looking to gun for $2000. 🚀

Spencer Li

After trading for 18 years, reading 1500+ books, and mentoring 1000+ traders, I specialise in helping people improve their trading results, by using tested trading strategies, and making better decisions via decision science.

0 Comments/by Spencer Li

Weekly Market Wrap: Is the Recession Cancelled Already?

Market Analysis

Last quarter, markets grappled with the unintended consequences of pandemic-related decisions, including high inflation and an unanticipated banking crisis. This crisis resulted from aggressive lending, a two-tiered stress test system, and a sharp rise in interest rates impacting bond prices.

Inflation remains persistently high, and the likelihood of a recession has increased. Despite these concerns, the stock market ended Q1 2023 up approximately 6%. The market is currently factoring in a mild recession, a lessening of inflation, and the expectation that the banking crisis will be managed and contained.

However, rising international tensions present a wild card that could quickly shift the market’s outlook.

In the upcoming week, investors should watch inflation, the banking crisis, and any developments related to international tensions, while remaining patient as long-term investors.

For more real-time updates and trading opportunities, check out our “Daily Trading Signals” Telegram channel!

[Photo: Antalya, Turkey – See my full travel photo log!]

For our weekly market wrap, we go through some of the trade calls and analysis from last week, which gives us valuable insights for the week ahead.

We cover 3 main markets with a total of 200+ counters, so we will never run out of trading opportunities:

Forex, CFDs, commodities, bonds
US stocks, ETFs, global stock indices
Cryptocurrencies, crypto indices

By covering a broad range of markets, we can focus our attention (and capital) on whichever market currently gives the best returns.

Weekly Market Outlook Video

Weekly Market Outlook (26 March 2023)

📌 Markets seem to be expecting a quick crash/recession followed by Fed cutting rates in Q3 this year
📌 Stock markets are confused
📌 USD is weakening, while Gold & Crypto is gaining strength
📌 Looking to accumulate long-term bonds (TLT) in my portfolio
📌 Bearish on Crude Oil and Commodities

Portfolio Highlights

Weekly Portfolio Updates (26 March 2023)

Added more bonds (TLT) to my portfolio.

Some of the top performing assets in the past few months. First Citizens shares jumped 45% yesterday upon its buyout of SVB. 🤯

Forex & Commodities Market Highlights

EURAUD – Following up on the H4 chart of our previous buy signal, it has now locked in 300+ pips profit!

Congrats to those who took the trade! 💰🔥💪🏻

Commodities ETF (DBC) – Following up, prices have pulled back to test the breakout level of the descending triangle.

Watch closely for shorting opportunities when the short-term price action turns bearish.

Stock & Bond Market Highlights

S&P 500 (US500) – Prices have been creeping up slowly, but volume has been drying up.

US 20-yr Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) – If the Fed is not going to raise interest rates much more, then it is very unlikely for this to break new lows.

In fact, the market is expecting the Fed to start cutting rates in Q3 or Q4 this year, which would mean higher bond prices.

My plan is to gradually accumulate this and hold it till the end of the year.

In the past month, most sectors and indices are negative, including the 5 leading sectors.

Breaking: Credit Default Swaps (CDS), insurance on default on Chrales Schwab EXPLODE.

Crypto Market Highlights

Ethereum (ETHUSD) – Prices finding some support here.

Is Binance the Next Collapse?

Spencer Li

After trading for 18 years, reading 1500+ books, and mentoring 1000+ traders, I specialise in helping people improve their trading results, by using tested trading strategies, and making better decisions via decision science.

0 Comments/by Spencer Li

Weekly Market Wrap: Is the Banking Crisis Just the Tip of the Iceberg?

Market Analysis

Last week saw an array of significant events unfold in the global banking and financial sectors, with concerns over Deutsche Bank, rising inflation, and China’s economic recovery dominating headlines.

Deutsche Bank’s shares slid 8% after a sudden spike in default insurance costs raised concerns among investors. While analysts insisted that Deutsche Bank was not the next Credit Suisse, panic spread throughout the markets, leading to a short banking crisis. As a result, $100 billion was pulled from banks, though the overall banking system was deemed sound and resilient.

European leaders scrambled to address the banking crisis and stabilize markets. The upcoming week will feature congressional hearings on SVB (Silicon Valley Bank), which have been affected by the same concerns plaguing Deutsche Bank and Credit Suisse.

The Federal Reserve bumped interest rates up by 25 basis points, marking the first rate hike since the pandemic began. Investors weighed the implications of this decision, as well as ongoing bank troubles, leading to mixed market reactions.

The US dollar and Swiss franc were identified as the weakest major currencies, while the yen rose in value. Investors now await a key inflation report (core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index) this coming week, as concerns about inflation and its impact on monetary policy persist.

A Chinese Communist Party official stated that the foundation of China’s economic recovery was not solid enough, leading to concerns about the country’s stability. In response, Citi labeled China a relative safe haven amid market uncertainty.

Oil prices fell as the US held off on refilling its strategic petroleum reserve, while gold prices gained on the back of the Federal Reserve’s hint at a pause in rate hikes.

For more market updates and real-time trading opportunities, check out our “Daily Trading Signals” Telegram channel!

[Photo: Kusadasi, Turkey – See my full travel photo log!]

For our weekly market wrap, we go through some of the trade calls and analysis from last week, which gives us valuable insights for the week ahead.

We cover 3 main markets with a total of 200+ counters, so we will never run out of trading opportunities:

Forex, CFDs, commodities, bonds
US stocks, ETFs, global stock indices
Cryptocurrencies, crypto indices

By covering a broad range of markets, we can focus our attention (and capital) on whichever market currently gives the best returns.

Weekly Market Outlook Video

Weekly Market Outlook (19 March 2023)

📌 FOMC on 22 March (Wed)
📌 80% chance of 25 bp hike
📌 Markets seem to be expecting a quick crash/recession followed by Fed cutting rates in Q3 this year
📌 Looking to accumulate long-term bonds (TLT) in my portfolio

Portfolio Highlights

Weekly Portfolio Updates (19 March 2023)

Added some bonds (TLT) and high growth stocks (ARKK) to my portfolio, while adding some shorts to the Dow Jones ETF (DIA).

Forex & Commodities Market Highlights

AUDCHF – Prices have rebounded to test the support-turned-resistance level, making it a good chance for a short position.

CADCHF – Nice pullback to test the breakout point, providing a good shorting opportunity.

NZDCHF – Another potential short after pulling back to test the breakout level.

Crude Oil (WTICOUSD) – Looking at the long-term weekly chart, it shows a huge downtrend channel.

Will we really see prices drop to 2020 lows?

Maybe if there is a recession, otherwise it seems unlikely.

Stock & Bond Market Highlights

China tech stocks (3067) – Might be forming a possible bullish inverse head-and-shoulders reversal pattern.

Started accumulating some, but will not take large positions until the neckline is cleared.

NASDAQ 100 (US100) – Yesterday, after the FOMC, prices broke above the previous swing high, but closed lower by the end of the session.

Direction is not very clear but I am more towards the bearish side.

NASDAQ 100 (US100) – It is now 2 days in a row where prices pushed new highs, then closed back down.

From here, prices can either drop back down to test prior lows, or consolidate for a few more bars to accumulate strength to push new highs.

As mentioned before, I am more inclined to the bearish side.

Weekly Chart of Credit Suisse (27 years)

Current situation and nothing adds up.

The “Fed Put” is back with assets on their balance sheet increasing $297 billion over the last week, the largest spike higher since March 2020.

Inflation vs. Recession

While everyone was distracted by SVB they missed Credit Suisse.

While everyone is distracted by Credit Suisse they’re missing Wells Fargo.

Crypto Market Highlights

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) and Ethereum (ETHUSD) – Following up on these 2, prices have broken out strongly as predicted!

Congrats to those who took the trade! 💰🔥💪🏻

Spencer Li

After trading for 18 years, reading 1500+ books, and mentoring 1000+ traders, I specialise in helping people improve their trading results, by using tested trading strategies, and making better decisions via decision science.

0 Comments/by Spencer Li

Weekly Market Wrap: 25bp Hike for the Next FOMC?

Market Analysis

This week, unprecedented disruptions occurred in global markets, with major sovereign bond markets trading like meme stocks. The US Treasury experienced a rare 12-sigma move, while German Bunds had a record-breaking single-day move.

Volatility indicators also had their largest moves since the COVID shock. This turmoil was triggered by a bank run on Silicon Valley Bank, leading to the first US bank failure since 2008.

The upcoming FOMC meeting will be crucial, with analysts divided over the best course of action. A business-as-usual approach, with a 25bp rate hike, could help calm markets. The Fed’s swift actions to address financial stability and inflation separately may allow them to proceed with rate hikes.

Despite these challenges, this is not considered a systemic issue yet, and the banking system is expected to cope with the current crisis. The FOMC’s decision, along with the ECB’s, will likely focus on fighting inflation while dealing with troubled financial institutions separately.

We have started to do some rebalancing in our portfolio to prepare for the next stage in the market. Is your portfolio ready to take advantage of the upcoming market cycle?

For more real-time market updates and profit opportunities, check out our “Daily Trading Signals” Telegram channel!

[Photo: Ephesus, Turkey – See my full travel photo log!]

For our weekly market wrap, we go through some of the trade calls and analysis from last week, which gives us valuable insights for the week ahead.

We cover 3 main markets with a total of 200+ counters, so we will never run out of trading opportunities:

Forex, CFDs, commodities, bonds
US stocks, ETFs, global stock indices
Cryptocurrencies, crypto indices

By covering a broad range of markets, we can focus our attention (and capital) on whichever market currently gives the best returns.

Weekly Market Outlook Video

Weekly Market Outlook (12 March 2023)

📌 FOMC on 22 March (Wed)
📌 Closure of 2 banks shifted priority from fighting inflation to preventing recession
📌 Markets seem to be expecting a quick crash/recession followed by Fed cutting rates in Q3 this year

Portfolio Highlights

Weekly Portfolio Updates (12 March 2023)

Great profits from our shorts last week, and this week I’ll be looking to add some long-term bonds (TLT) to my portfolio.

Forex & Commodities Market Highlights

AUDNZD – Perfect TP for short positions on the H4 chart right at the low before prices rebound! 💰🔥💪🏻

EURCHF – Following up on this, we have 200+ pips profit in the running, but there is likely to be more. 💰🔥💪🏻

Take some profits, and use a tight SL for the remaining positions.

NZDCHF – Following up on this, excellent short trade that gave us 200+ pips profit! 💰🔥💪🏻

Remember to take profits and use a trailing SL for the remaining positions.

Crude Oil (WTICOUSD) – Broke below the $70 level, and the downtrend continues.

Nearing major support at $65, and the RSI is oversold. Will be a good level to take profits.

Gold (XAUUSD) – Following up on our long trade, this popped up more than 5% in just a few days! 💰🔥💪🏻

Good chance that it will continue to test /break the prior swing high, so use a tight trailing SL to ride the trend.

Stock & Bond Market Highlights

China tech stocks (3067) – Following up on this, it is moving exactly as predicted. Just be patient and collect the profits, while waiting for the chance to go long! 💰🔥💪🏻

Dow Jones Index (US30) – After breaking the major support, it looks more bearish than bullish.

For far the Dow has been quite resistant to the downside, only declining 22% during the last drop.

Will it be testing the prior lows soon?

CPI estimates

Here are the key numbers investors from Friday’s report, with results compared January’s data.

Paper losses proliferate. US bank unrealised gains and losses on investment securities.

Just 2 weeks ago both the 6-month and 1-year yields were above 5%, today the 6-month is around 4.8% while the 1-year is around 4.3%.

Seems like the market is really expecting the Fed to cut rates by the end of this year?!!?!

We have moved from inflationary fears to deflationary fears.

Crypto Market Highlights

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) and Ethereum (ETHUSD) – After failing to break lower, we saw an impressive U-turn rally that brought both tokens near its previous highs, poised for breakout.

I think there is a good chance of a breakout happening this time.

USDC depegging due to SVB contagion
USD Coin (USDC) experienced a 10% drop in value to trade at $0.8774 after Circle, its issuer, was unable to withdraw $3.3bn of its $40bn from Silicon Valley Bank (SVB).

Although SVB was due to close, Circle initiated a wire transfer to remove its funds, but the bank was unable to process the transfers fully.

The USDC price change was sudden, with on-chain data revealing that Circle redeemed a net of $1.4bn in USDC in eight hours, while crypto firms Coinbase and Jump Trading redeemed $850m and up to $138m respectively to reduce exposure.

SVB is crucial to the US economy, said Circle’s Chief Strategy Officer Dante Disparte, warning that the bank’s failure without a Federal rescue plan will have broader implications for businesses, banking and entrepreneurs.

Good luck, and may next week bring more excellent profits!

Spencer Li

After trading for 18 years, reading 1500+ books, and mentoring 1000+ traders, I specialise in helping people improve their trading results, by using tested trading strategies, and making better decisions via decision science.

0 Comments/by Spencer Li

Weekly Market Wrap: Ethereum (ETH) Breaks Above $2000!

Market Recap & Upcoming Week

Daily Trading Signals

Weekly Market Wrap: Upcoming Earnings Season & Inflation Data!

Weekly Market Outlook Video

Portfolio Highlights

Forex & Commodities Market Highlights

Stock & Bond Market Highlights

Crypto Market Highlights

Weekly Market Wrap: Is the Recession Cancelled Already?

Weekly Market Outlook Video

Portfolio Highlights

Forex & Commodities Market Highlights

Stock & Bond Market Highlights

Crypto Market Highlights

Weekly Market Wrap: Is the Banking Crisis Just the Tip of the Iceberg?

Weekly Market Outlook Video

Portfolio Highlights

Forex & Commodities Market Highlights

Stock & Bond Market Highlights

Crypto Market Highlights

Weekly Market Wrap: 25bp Hike for the Next FOMC?

Weekly Market Outlook Video

Portfolio Highlights

Forex & Commodities Market Highlights

Stock & Bond Market Highlights

Crypto Market Highlights

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