Market analysis, insights and trading ideas on various markets and products!

When comparing forex and the stock market, the most significant difference lies in what you are trading. Forex, or foreign exchange, is a market for buying and selling currencies, whereas the stock market deals in shares, representing ownership in a company. Your choice between trading currencies or stocks should primarily depend on your interest in the specific asset, but other factors also come into play.

Market Trading Hours

Market hours can significantly influence your trading approach and the time you need to monitor the markets.

The forex market operates globally, allowing trading 24 hours a day, five days a week. This constant availability offers numerous trading opportunities but also carries the risk of market movements occurring while you are not actively monitoring it. A robust risk management strategy, including the use of stops and limits, is essential to protect your trades from unnecessary losses.

The best times to trade forex are when the market is most active, typically during the overlap of two trading sessions. For example, the GBP/USD pair sees increased activity when London and New York sessions overlap between 12 pm to 4 pm (London time), offering higher liquidity, faster transactions, and potentially lower spreads.

In contrast, share trading is generally limited to the specific opening hours of the stock exchange where the shares are listed. However, many exchanges now offer extended trading hours, allowing traders to act on news events even when the market is closed.

Market Influences

Another key difference between forex and stock trading is the factors that move market prices. While both markets are driven by supply and demand, the specifics vary.

In stock trading, you focus on factors directly impacting a particular company, such as its debt levels, cash flows, earnings, and broader sector health. Economic data, news reports, and overall market sentiment also play significant roles.

Forex trading, on the other hand, involves a broader set of influences, as you must consider the macroeconomic factors of multiple countries. This includes analyzing unemployment rates, inflation, GDP, and political events in the countries whose currencies you are trading. Since forex involves buying one currency while selling another, understanding the performance of both economies is crucial.

Liquidity

Liquidity, or the ease with which an asset can be bought or sold, is another important factor.

Forex is the largest financial market in the world, with extremely high liquidity, frequently seeing daily turnovers in the trillions of dollars. However, liquidity can vary depending on the currency pair and the time of day, with major pairs like EUR/USD generally being the most liquid.

The stock market, while still highly liquid, sees fewer daily trades compared to forex. Blue-chip stocks like Apple, Microsoft, and Facebook are usually the most liquid, with a large number of buyers and sellers available. However, liquidity can decrease significantly when dealing with less popular or smaller-cap stocks.

Volatility

Volatility measures the likelihood of significant and unforeseen price changes in a market.

Forex markets are known for their high volatility due to the ease of trading and the large volume of transactions. While forex prices often trade within small ranges, they can change rapidly, especially in response to political, economic, or social events. Traders must stay informed about global events to manage the risks associated with this volatility.

The stock market tends to have more stable price patterns that can be tracked over time, though it is not immune to volatility, particularly during times of political or economic uncertainty. For instance, the Dow Jones Industrial Average experienced sharp declines in March 2018 due to trade tensions between the U.S. and China.

Trading in volatile markets can present opportunities for profit but also comes with increased risks, necessitating careful management to avoid unnecessary losses.

Leverage

Leverage allows traders to gain greater exposure to the market with a smaller amount of capital, which is a common feature in both forex and stock trading.

Leverage is more frequently associated with forex trading, often with much higher ratios, sometimes up to 200:1 in certain countries. While leverage can amplify returns, it also increases the potential for significant losses, making it a double-edged sword.

Regardless of the market, understanding your exposure and the associated risks is essential when trading on leverage.

Going Long or Short

When choosing between forex and the stock market, it’s important to consider whether you can short-sell – a strategy that involves profiting from a market’s decline.

Forex trading inherently involves shorting one currency while buying another, giving traders easy access to falling markets.

In stock trading, traditionally, investors could only take long positions, benefiting from a rise in a company’s stock value. However, with the advent of derivative products like CFDs (Contracts for Difference), traders can now go long or short on stocks, enabling them to capitalize on market movements in either direction.

Concluding Thoughts

Ultimately, the decision to trade forex or stocks depends on your personal preferences, risk tolerance, and trading style.

If you prefer a fast-paced environment with ample short-term trading opportunities, forex might be the better choice, especially for day traders, scalp traders, or swing traders. On the other hand, if you’re interested in short to mid-term trends with potentially lower volatility, the stock market may be more suitable.

Understanding the nuances of each market and aligning them with your financial goals will help you make an informed decision.

The foreign exchange (forex) market is the global hub where banks, institutions, and individuals engage in buying, selling, and exchanging currencies. As the largest financial market worldwide, it recorded an impressive daily trading volume of $7.5 trillion in 2022. This market, comprising banks, central banks, commercial companies, hedge funds, retail forex brokers, and individual investors, has grown over sevenfold in daily trading value since the early 2000s.

Understanding the Forex Market

Unlike other financial markets, the forex market is decentralized, functioning through a global network of computers and brokers. Forex brokers often act as market makers, setting buy and sell prices for currency pairs, sometimes differing from the most competitive market bids.

As an OTC market, the forex market facilitates direct trading between parties, supported by brokers. Interbank trading plays a significant role, impacting exchange rate fluctuations as major banks trade currencies for various purposes, such as hedging risks and adjusting balance sheets.

In October 2023, North America’s OTC foreign exchange market had an average daily trading volume of $1.021 billion.

Forex Market Operations

The forex market operates continuously from Monday morning in Asia to Friday afternoon in New York, unlike other markets that close in the late afternoon EST. However, some emerging market currencies may have short breaks during the trading day.

History of the Forex Market

Before World War I, currencies were tied to precious metals like gold and silver. This system was abandoned during the Great Depression and World War II, leading to the creation of the Bretton Woods Agreement. This agreement established the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank and pegged international currencies to the U.S. dollar, replacing gold. However, in 1971, President Richard Nixon ended the dollar’s convertibility into gold, leading to free-floating exchange rates determined by market forces.

Since then, the forex market has undergone significant changes due to technological advancements, regulatory updates, and global economic events. The U.S. dollar continues to be the dominant reserve currency worldwide.

Forex Currency Pairs

In the forex market, currencies are traded in pairs, where one currency is quoted against another. For example, in the EUR/USD pair, the euro is the base currency, and the U.S. dollar is the quote currency. The exchange rate shows how much of the quote currency is needed to purchase one unit of the base currency.

Recent Developments in Forex

The introduction of electronic trading platforms in the 1990s transformed the forex market, making it more accessible, efficient, and liquid. Key regulatory changes, such as the launch of the euro in 1999, significantly impacted currency trading. Economic crises, including the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic, have also led to increased volatility in currency markets.

Major currency pairs like EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, and USD/CAD dominate global forex transactions due to their economic and political significance. While emerging market currencies like the Chinese yuan (CNY) and Indian rupee (INR) have gained traction, they still trail the most traded currencies.

Cryptocurrencies have introduced a new aspect to the forex market, though they represent a small fraction of daily trading volumes. Despite their growing popularity, cryptocurrency trading remains minimal compared to the vast amounts traded in traditional fiat currencies.

Types of Forex Markets

The forex market can be categorized into three main types: spot, forward, and futures markets.

1. Spot Forex Market: This market involves the immediate exchange of currencies at the current exchange rate. It accounts for the majority of daily forex transactions, with significant participation from commercial and investment banks.
– Features include ease of access, decentralization, immediate settlement, and real-time rate reflection.

2. Forward Forex Market: In this market, two parties agree to exchange currencies at a predetermined future date and price. These contracts are typically used for hedging and can be customized, although they are less liquid.
– Key characteristics include hedging opportunities, customization, privacy, and counterparty risk.

3. Futures Forex Market: Futures markets are similar to forward markets but are traded on centralized exchanges, offering greater liquidity and transparency while reducing counterparty risk.
– Features include exchange-trading, margin requirements, and public price availability.

Other Forex Markets

Options Market: This market allows traders to buy or sell currency options, giving them the right, but not the obligation, to exchange currency at a specified rate before a set date. It is used for both hedging and speculative purposes.
Swap Market: In the swap market, two parties exchange cash flows in different currencies, often used by banks to manage currency exposure and liquidity.

Forex Market Examples

Spot Market Example: A trader exchanges $1,000 for euros at an exchange rate of 1.08, anticipating that the dollar will weaken. If the exchange rate later rises to 1.10, the trader profits from the change in currency value.
Swap Forex Example: Two banks in different countries agree to swap currencies and later return them at an agreed rate, managing currency exposure and ensuring liquidity.

Types of Forex Trading

Hedging: Used to protect against unfavorable currency movements, common among multinational corporations.
Speculation: Involves taking risks to profit from short-term currency fluctuations.
Arbitrage: Exploits price differences in different markets to make a profit.
Interest Rate Differences: Capitalizes on varying interest rates between countries.
Diversification: Forex trading can diversify a portfolio, reducing risk by spreading investments across different asset classes.

Pros and Cons of Forex Trading

Advantages:
– 24-hour market with high liquidity and low transaction costs.
– Leverage can amplify gains significantly.

Disadvantages:
– Less regulation increases counterparty risk.
– High volatility and leverage can lead to substantial losses.

Can You Get Rich by Trading Forex?

While forex trading can be highly profitable, particularly for those with significant capital and expertise, it is also very risky. Individual traders must be well-prepared and disciplined to succeed.

Getting Started with Forex Trading

To begin trading forex, it is essential to develop a solid understanding of the market and create a trading strategy. Most forex accounts can be opened with as little as $100, but investing more may be necessary to effectively implement trading strategies and cover associated costs.

Concluding Thoughts

Forex trading offers flexibility and significant potential rewards but comes with considerable risks. Successful trading requires a disciplined approach, robust risk management, and continuous learning. While forex trading can be highly rewarding, it is crucial to approach it cautiously and with a well-informed strategy to mitigate the inherent risks.

Thumbnail banner weekly market wrap x3

Thumbnail banner weekly market wrap x3

For subscribers of our “Daily Trading Signals”, we now also include a “Weekly Market Report”, where we provide a weekly deep-dive on the market, including fundamentals, technicals, economics, and portfolio management:

Click here for last week’s market report (24 July 2023)
Click here to subscribe for the latest market report (31 July 2023)
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Market Recap & Upcoming Week

Last week was marked by significant financial and technological achievements with tech giants Google and Microsoft posting impressive earnings. Both companies showcased enhanced revenue growth and profitability for the quarter ending in June. A highlight was the resurgence of Google’s main advertising business after two quarters of decline, and Microsoft’s cloud and enterprise software sectors exceeded Wall Street expectations despite a global slowdown in tech spending.

Additionally, the duo’s commitment to generative AI technology was noteworthy. With Microsoft’s proactive adoption of this technology, its stock experienced a 46% surge since the start of the year. Google-parent Alphabet, meanwhile, saw a moderate 39% stock increase this year, further boosted by a 6% jump after their recent earnings report.

Meanwhile, on the stock market front, the Dow Jones Industrial Average reached a record with its 12th consecutive day of gains, significantly assisted by a surge in 3M shares. Despite 3M reporting a quarterly loss due to a litigation settlement, the company’s shares rose 5.3% after it announced improved margins and an increase in its yearly earnings expectations.

The U.S. Federal Reserve also raised interest rates by 0.25% in response to ongoing inflation, marking the highest policy rate in 16 years. Internationally, rumors of a possible shift in Japan’s longstanding bond yield repression policy caused minor upheaval in U.S. markets, triggering a rise in Treasury yields and a reversal rally in the S&P 500. This speculation, if confirmed, could signal a more restrictive policy stance in Japan, potentially disrupting international trades tied to Japanese markets.

As the earnings season carries on, the market eagerly anticipates reports from tech giants such as Apple and Amazon. These high-profile companies’ financial results will need to significantly exceed expectations to drive share prices further. Given their current near-all-time-high status, any average earnings reported could potentially lead to a decrease in share prices.

Investors also await economic data, including the June JOLTS report and ADP’s National Employment Report, as well as the July nonfarm payrolls report to get insights into the state of the labor market. Adding to the roster of vital data is a series of PMI readings from S&P Global and the ISM, which will offer indications of the health of the manufacturing sector.

Investors will also keep an eye on the eurozone’s inflation and GDP numbers, potentially influencing international investment decisions. Finally, the Bank of England’s interest rate decision will be critical as markets globally adjust to changing monetary policy signals.

Daily Trading Signals (Highlights)

We cover 3 main markets with a total of 200+ counters, so we will never run out of trading opportunities:

By covering a broad range of markets, we can focus our attention (and capital) on whichever market currently gives the best returns.

Subscribe for real-time alerts and weekly reports:
👉🏻 https://synapsetrading.com/daily-trading-signals

 

Trading Signals USDSGD 280723

USDSGD – Prices were unable to break the support despite multiple tries, this is a sign of bullishness.

 

Trading Signals NZDCAD 280723

NZDCAD – Prices are now halfway to the TP, will continue holding. 💪🏻

 

Trading Signals US100 280723

NASDAQ 100 (US100) – Prices tried breaking higher but got rejected and closed lower. This shows a lack of buying conviction and could lead to a small correction.

 

Trading Signals 3067 280723

China tech stocks ETF (3067) – Following up, prices have broke above the mini ascending triangle, and are likely to test the prior swing high.

Thumbnail banner weekly market wrap x3

Thumbnail banner weekly market wrap x3

For subscribers of our “Daily Trading Signals”, we now also include a “Weekly Market Report”, where we provide a weekly deep-dive on the market, including fundamentals, technicals, economics, and portfolio management:

Click here for last week’s market report (17 July 2023)
Click here to subscribe for the latest market report (24 July 2023)
Click here to see the archives of all our past market reports

Market Recap & Upcoming Week

Last week was marked by significant geopolitical and financial events that could have substantial implications in various sectors. On the international political front, Moscow’s withdrawal from humanitarian cooperation at the United Nations and its decision to shut down a Syrian aid route could raise concerns over regional stability.

Meanwhile, in the tech sector, Tesla finally started production of the much-anticipated Cybertruck at its Texas factory. For its earnings, Tesla reported a 20% increase in profit, attributing it to price cuts and higher deliveries, but its share price took a beating. Notably, Ford also slashed the price of its F-150 Lightning Electric Truck by up to $10,000.

The UK took a significant step towards globalization by joining the £12 trillion Indo-Pacific Trade Bloc.

In terms of financial markets, China’s debt sector has been caught in ambiguity and financial squeeze, and the global wheat prices are surging due to Russia’s withdrawal from the grain deal.

ARK Investment Management’s Cathie Wood decreased her stake in Twitter by 47%, but still remains optimistic about the company’s future prospects. In the corporate world, tech giants Microsoft and Meta have collaborated to offer new AI software for businesses. Netflix’s crackdown on password sharing has led to a surge in new subscribers, reflecting changes in consumer behavior.

Elsewhere, hiring patterns have indicated a possible looming recession, even as companies continue to recruit heavily. Notably, the semiconductor industry is experiencing a downturn, with TSMC reporting a profit drop for the first time in four years.

On the monetary front, Turkey raised its key interest rate to combat soaring inflation, while UK borrowing costs decreased following lower-than-expected inflation, making a Bank of England interest rate hike less likely in August.

As we step into the next week, the major focus will be the two-day policy meeting convened by Federal Reserve officials, commencing on Tuesday. The highly anticipated interest rate decision, due on Wednesday, will potentially impact financial markets significantly.

Concurrently, earnings season is escalating with a vast array of major corporations slated to release their reports. Giants from the tech industry like Microsoft, Meta Platforms, and Google’s parent company, Alphabet, will be in the limelight, along with influential entities like Visa, Mastercard, Texas Instruments, Coca Cola Company, McDonald’s, Boeing, AT&T, Verizon, Ford Motor Company, Chevron, and ExxonMobil.

The economic calendar of the week remains densely packed. Thursday will see the unveiling of the advance estimate for the second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP). To follow, on Friday, we have the release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, which will provide insights into the current inflation scenario.

Moreover, the latest updates on home prices, including new and pending home sales for June, are also on the schedule, which could bring further attention to the state of the housing market.

Daily Trading Signals (Highlights)

We cover 3 main markets with a total of 200+ counters, so we will never run out of trading opportunities:

By covering a broad range of markets, we can focus our attention (and capital) on whichever market currently gives the best returns.

Subscribe for real-time alerts and weekly reports:
👉🏻 https://synapsetrading.com/daily-trading-signals

 

Trading Signals CADCHF 190723

CADCHF – Following up on this trade, prices have hit our TP with 268 pips profit! Congrats to those who took this trade! 💪🔥💰

 

Trading Signals NZDCAD 190723

NZDCAD – Trade got triggered, great shorting opportunity near the top of the trend channel.

Thumbnail banner weekly market wrap x3

Thumbnail banner weekly market wrap x3

 

For subscribers of our “Daily Trading Signals”, we now also include a “Weekly Market Report”, where we provide a weekly deep-dive on the market, including fundamentals, technicals, economics, and portfolio management:

Click here for last week’s market report (10 July 2023)
Click here to subscribe for the latest market report (17 July 2023)
Click here to see the archives of all our past market reports

 

Market Recap & Upcoming Week

Last week, market watchers were eagerly anticipating the release of US inflation data, which was expected to provide a much-needed direction for future monetary policy decisions. Experts predicted a notable slowdown in both headline and core inflation, with a projected modest rise of 0.2% from May to June.

This projection represented the smallest potential increase in core inflation since last year and signified a potential turning point for policymakers as they grapple with managing rising costs against the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Despite the anticipated inflation slowdown, the current rate still indicated a possible resumption of interest-rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.

In addition to the inflation data, the resilience of the economy was put under the spotlight last week, as recent jobs reports showcased solid wage growth and a healthy yet slightly lower than expected payroll increase.

The Federal Reserve’s track record of ten consecutive meetings with interest rate hikes led many to expect a continuation of this trend in the upcoming meeting on July 25-26. However, the potential easing in inflation data could have led to a pause in interest rate hikes, adding another layer of complexity to the economic forecast for the rest of the year.

The earnings season is set to intensify in the week ahead, with several heavy hitters from various industries slated to release their financial reports.

Investors will be keeping a close eye on results from major institutions such as Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, and Goldman Sachs, along with powerhouse corporations including Lockheed Martin, Tesla, Netflix, IBM, Johnson & Johnson, and United Airlines.

The market will be keen to see how these giants have fared amid the ongoing economic conditions, and the updates could trigger significant market movements. Furthermore, the financial health and outlook of these influential companies can provide invaluable insights into the broader economic landscape and future trends.

Economic data releases in the upcoming week promise to offer a wealth of information on the global economy’s health.

In the U.S., the focus will be on the retail sales data for June released by the Census Bureau, shedding light on consumer spending patterns amid fluctuating inflation and employment dynamics. Additionally, several housing market indicators, including building permits, housing starts, and existing home sales for June, along with the NAHB’s Housing Market Index, will provide insight into the state of the U.S. real estate market.

International attention will be directed towards the latest inflation readings from the U.K., eurozone, and Japan, which will be closely monitored by investors and policymakers for signs of inflationary trends outside the U.S.

Daily Trading Signals (Highlights)

We cover 3 main markets with a total of 200+ counters, so we will never run out of trading opportunities:

By covering a broad range of markets, we can focus our attention (and capital) on whichever market currently gives the best returns.

Subscribe for real-time alerts and weekly reports:
👉🏻 https://synapsetrading.com/daily-trading-signals

 

Trading Signals GBPUSD 120723

GBPUSD – Following up on this, we are up by 700+ pips profit, and very near to our TP!

Congrats to all those who took this trade! 💰🔥💪🏻

 

Trading Signals USDCHF 120723

USDCHF – Following up on this, it has hit and even exceed our 2nd TP! 💰🔥💪🏻

Congrats to those who held on!

 

Trading Signals PLTR 120723
Palantir (PLTR) – Following up from the video, prices have rebounded off the strong support!

 

Trading Signals USDCAD 120723

USDCAD – Following up on this, prices have started to move towards our TP. Will continue to hold and monitor.

 

Trading Signals USDSGD 120723
USDSGD – Unfortunately, prices did not trigger the upside breakout, and instead broke to the downside. This is why patience is important before entering a trade.