cup and handle pattern trading strategy

The cup and handle is an accumulation buying pattern, which is found during long periods of consolidation, and can lead to powerful explosive moves once the pattern is fully completed.

There are 2 main varieties of this pattern – the cup and handle reversal pattern, and the cup and handle continuation pattern.

In this post, I will show you how to take advantage of the cup and handle pattern to trade breakouts, how to avoid false breakouts, and the best trading strategies for this price pattern.

 

Cup and Handle Pattern Trading Strategy Guide

 

What is a Cup and Handle Price Pattern?

The cup and handle is an accumulation buying pattern, which is found during long periods of consolidation, and can lead to powerful explosive moves once the pattern is fully completed.

In the diagram below, you can see that the price pattern consists of a larger accumulation base (the cup), before forming a smaller accumulation base (the handle), before finally leading to a breakout.

What is a Cup and Handle Price Pattern

From a practical viewpoint, we will usually start to notice the pattern only when it starts forming the “cup” part of the pattern, which is quite identifiable by the smooth gradual curve upwards of trending swing counts of higher highs and higher lows on the chart.

The confirmation will come from the “handle” part of the price pattern, which is like a small pullback before the price explodes upwards. You can think of it as pushing down on a loaded spring, to build up more pressure just before the release.

 

The 2 Types of Cup and Handle Patterns

Unlike other chart patterns, the cup and handle pattern does not work equally for both the bullish and bearish scenario, as it is almost exclusively found in the bullish scenario only. Hence, we don’t hear people talking about “bullish cup and handle” or “bearish cup and handle”, because when they say “cup and handle”, it is understood to refer to the bullish version.

Based on the 2 main categories of chart patterns (continuation vs reversal), most people tend to classify the cup and handle pattern under the “Reversal Patterns” category, however I feel that the cup and handle can be both a reversal or continuation pattern.

In the diagram below, I illustrate the 2 different types of cup and handle patterns.

The 2 Types of Cup and Handle Patterns

a) Cup and Handle Reversal Pattern

In the reversal cup and handle, prices start off in a prolonged downtrend, where they gradually lose momentum and become more sideways. Prices start to bottom out and form a reversal base, before leading to a change in direction.

b) Cup and Handle Continuation Pattern

In the continuation cup and handle, prices are on an existing uptrend, and when the trend loses some steam or takes a pause, prices start to move sideways. The cup and handle pattern helps to buy up more buying pressure, before prices break to new highs and resume the uptrend.

In both scenarios, the context is very different, but the pattern is the same, and can be traded in exactly the same way.

 

Cup and Handle Pattern Psychology

In the cup and handle pattern, as the downtrend starts to weaken (less bears/sellers), the bulls/buyers start trying to take control from the bears, by gradually accumulating long positions.

Cup and Handle Pattern Psychology

As they build up their positions, we start to see a wide U-shape bottom (the cup), where bulls and bears are almost balanced. This suggests that the bears are no longer in control, and the downtrend has been neutralized.

In the final stage, where the handle forms, this is where the final battle of the bulls and bears take place.

By this time, the bulls have the upper hand as they have been accumulating positions during the cup formation, which in turn attracts more buyers.

Once the last bears are killed, bulls take full control, and the explosive price breakout takes place.

 

Cup and Handle Pattern Trading Strategies

There are 2 main strategies, which focus on the final battle between the bull and bears, because that is usually the tipping point where large explosive moves happen once the bears give up and get overwhelmed by the bulls.

  1. Pre-Breakout Entry: Enter before the breakout
  2. Pullback Entry: Wait for a pullback after the breakout

Cup and Handle Pattern Trading Strategies

Since the cup and handle is inherently a bullish pattern, the basic idea is to look for low risk buying opportunities to enter.

Looking at the diagram above, you might think that the best place to enter a trade is during the cup phase, because you can get the best entry price.

However, during the cup phase, the odds are 50-50, and there is no real edge, because the market is still sideways at that point of time.

In addition, the cup phase might last a really long time, and may not lead to a handle.

Hence, it makes more sense to make good use of your trading capital, and only enter the trade as the action is about to start.

The first opportunity would be to enter during the handle phase before the breakout, but if you miss that, they next best chance is to enter on the first pullback after the breakout.

Now, let’s go through each strategy in greater detail.

 

Trading Strategy #1: Pre-Breakout Entry

Our first strategy for the cup and handle price pattern is to enter just before the completion of the pattern, during the handle formation.

Cup and Handle Pattern Trading Strategies 1

During the cup formation, buyers would have been accumulating long positions and building bullish pressure, with the occasional test of the resistance level by trying to break out.

As the handle forms, it is very close to the breakout happening, and this provides a good low-risk opportunity to enter the trade just before the action begins.

Once the breakout happens, the price and volume is expected to surge, which would make it more challenging to enter a position, hence it is recommend to take a position before that.

For trading, we would look to enter during the handle formation, which would be very close to the resistance level.

We can then place a stoploss below the handle, and since the handle is usually pretty small relative to the pattern, the risk will not be very high.

 

Trading Strategy #2: Pullback Entry

Our next strategy for the cup and handle pattern is to enter on the first pullback after the initial breakout.

Cup and Handle Pattern Trading Strategies 2

As covered in the previous setup, one of the ways to trade the cup and handle pattern is to enter just before the price breaks out of pattern.

However, sometimes the breakout might be too fast, or you might have missed the breakout opportunity.

After such a long build-up (the cup and also the handle), it is very likely that any resulting move up would have more than 1 leg, so the first pullback/pause is a good place to enter because there is a high chance of a 2nd leg after the trend resumes.

In the example above, we see prices surge after the initial breakout, followed by a small pause which looks like a bull flag, before prices continue to surge again after breaking out from the flag pattern.

That small pause (in this case the bull flag) gives us a good low risk opportunity to get into the trade to ride the next wave of uptrend. Do note that the pause may not always be a flag, sometimes it might take other forms, but the idea is the same.

For trading, we would look to enter during the pause (formation of the small flag), when the risk and volatility is low.  The bottom of the pullback pattern would be a good place to put your stoploss.

If you have already taken a position using Strategy #1 on the pre-breakout, you can also use Strategy #2 to add more positions on the first pullback.

 

Profit Target for the Cup and Handle Pattern

Once the cup and handle pattern is identified, you can use the completed pattern to do a price projection, which can serve as a good estimate for a target profit for your trade.

To measure the target price, take the maximum height of the cup, and project that distance from the breakout point.

Profit Target for the Cup and Handle Pattern

In the chart above, the maximum height of the cup is indicated by the blue rectangular box, which is then used as a price projection at the breakout point.

The black horizontal arrow indicates the price level which serves as the minimum profit target for the cup and handle pattern breakout.

To get an added layer of confirmation, you can look for confluence with with tools and methods, such as support and resistance levels.

 

Tips from the Trading Desk

  1. For cup and handle continuation, look to trade with the trend, especially if the trend is strong.
  2. For cup and handle reversal, look for a strong accumulation base to build the move.
  3. Look for multiple attempts to break the resistance, but also avoid the false breakouts!

Tips from the Trading Desk

As you can see from the chart above, a key component of the cup and handle pattern lies in the resistance level, because in a sense the whole build-up during the cup and the battle during the handle is an attempt to break though this level.

Hence during the build-up phase, we should look out for attempts to break the resistance levels, and it is expected that the first few attempts will fail, so do not try to trade those breakouts.

These “false breakout” attempts are more to probe for weaknesses, and the chances of a successful breakout at this point of time is low because there is insufficient build-up, which usually takes the form of the handle.

Hence, it is more prudent to only enter this setup during the handle formation, especially if previous attempts have been made to break the resistance.

Now that I have shared the various trading strategies for the cup and handle price pattern, which is your favourite strategy?

Let me know in the comments below.

 

thumbnail the definitive guide to trading price chart patterns

If you would like to learn all the different price chart patterns, also check out: “The Definitive Guide to Trading Price Chart Patterns”

Recently, after the long run up in tech stocks, there has been some correction, leading to counter-trend moves in various counters.

We managed to spot and pre-empt many of these moves, using price action, patterns, and support/resistance levels.

Join our FREE Telegram channel for daily trading tips:
?? https://t.me/synapsetrading

 

Market Overview

Recent Trade Updates with the Market Correction

Recent Trade Updates with the Market Correction 2

 

Trading Opportunities

Short trade on CHF/JPY

Short trade on CHF/JPY

Short trade on CHF/JPY 2

Short trade on GBP/USD

Short trade on GBP/USD 3

Short trade on GBP/USD 4

 

Short trade on GBP/USD

Short trade on GBP/USD 5

Short trade on GBP/USD 6

Short trade on S&P 500

Short trade on S&P 500Short trade on S&P 500 2

 

 

Start Your Trading Journey Today!

If you are interested to start your journey with our closely-knit community, click on the link below: https://synapsetrading.com/the-synapse-program/

Here is some feedback from our students:

“I’m very new to trading and this training gave me a lot of important insights & strategies to become a good trader.” – Larry Tan

“I feel that the course provided a clear and proven methodology to trade effectively. The tools provided are also very supportive.” – Janie, AXA

“The concepts taught by Spencer are easy to follow!” – Jiawei

“Very informative and interactive training conducted in a right pace.” – Eugene Chng

“A very complete training program that give a good coverage on trading and practical setups that are easy to understand and apply. The mindset portion is very important to ensure that we are profitable in the long term. Thank you.” – Alan

“The training was very well-done. The flow in the course is good, and very informative and detailed with a good overview of the entire market. The ending with mindset and psychology summarized it nicely. The case studies were also very useful in allowing us to apply the principles involved.” – Sherilyn Tan

See you on the inside! ?

Die with Zero Summary

Recently I read this book, “Die with Zero” by Bill Perkins, which put forth an interesting concept to plan your finances so that you die with zero, instead of the usual advice to hoard a large sum of money to live off the interest/dividends, and die with the capital.

Book Summary

How Much Time Should You Exchange for Money?

Life energy is all the hours that you’re alive to do things—and whenever you work, you spend some of that finite life energy. So any amount of money you’ve earned through your work represents the amount of life energy you spent earning that money.

If you die with extra money, it means you have sacrificed hours of your life for those money, which effectively means you have wasted those hours of your life.

This means that there is an optimal amount of work (to exchange time into money) you will need to do in order to live the lifestyle you want, but any more than that is unnecessary. But people tend to work and save way more than necessary, usually out of fear or habit.

Our culture’s focus on work is like a seductive drug. It takes all of your yearning for discovery and wonder and experiences, promising to give you the means (money) to get all those things—but the focus on the work and the money becomes so single-minded and automatic that you forget what you were yearning for in the first place. The poison becomes the medicine—that’s nuts!

For some people, it is easier to keep doing what you’ve been doing, especially when what you’ve been doing continues to reward you with society’s universal form of recognition for a job well done, aka money. Once you’re in the habit of working for money to live, the thrill of making money exceeds the thrill of actually living.

 

What to Spend Money On For Maximum Value

Many psychological studies have shown that spending money on experiences makes us happier than spending money on things. Unlike material possessions, which seem exciting at the beginning but then often depreciate quickly, experiences actually gain in value over time: They pay what I call a memory dividend.

The main idea here is that your life is the sum of your experiences. This just means that everything you do in life—all the daily, weekly, monthly, annual, and once-in-a-lifetime experiences you have—adds up to who you are.

Start actively thinking about the life experiences you’d like to have, and the number of times you’d like to have them. The experiences can be large or small, free or costly, charitable or hedonistic. But think about what you really want out of this life in terms of meaningful and memorable experiences.

What’s the best way to spend our money for maximum enjoyment and in order to generate maximum memories?

What’s the best way to allocate our life energy before we die?

What are the life experiences you would like to have in this lifetime?

 

How to Minimise Regrets in Life

Here are the 5 biggest deathbed regrets:

  • I wish I’d had the courage to live a life true to myself, not the life others expected of me.
  • I wish I hadn’t worked so hard.
  • I wish I’d had the courage to express my feelings.
  • I wish I had stayed in touch with my friends.
  • I wish that I had let myself be happier.

The problem of confronting overly delayed gratification and the resulting regret doesn’t occur just once, at the end of one’s life. Rather, it can occur at every period during your life, from the bookworm teenager who missed out on all the fun of high school by making too many sacrifices for the sake of a supposedly brighter future to the middle-aged dad who repeatedly skipped irreplaceable experiences with his own teens by constantly hustling for one job promotion after another.

Sometimes people realize their mistake just before the window of opportunity closes—like when one’s children are getting ready to leave the nest—and sometimes the recognition comes when it’s too late to do anything at all about it except resolve to do better in their next life stage.

That is what I mean when I say that we die many deaths in the course of our lives: The teenager in you dies, the college student in you dies, the single unattached you dies, the version of you that’s a parent of an infant dies, and so on. Once each of these mini-deaths occurs, there’s no going back.

Because of this eventual finality of all of life’s passing phases, you can delay some experiences for only so long before the window of opportunity on these experiences shuts forever.

When the end is near, we suddenly start thinking, What the hell am I doing? Why did I wait this long? Until then, most of us go through life as if we had all the time in the world.

So to increase your overall lifetime fulfillment, it’s important to have each experience at the right age.

 

Balancing Time, Money & Energy

Balancing Time, Money & Energy

In other words, to get the most out of your time and money, timing matters.

There is a sweet spot in everyone’s lifetime during which they can most enjoy the fruits of their wealth.

The problem is that people continue to save well past that optimal point. This is the senselessness of indefinitely delayed gratification.

When you are young, you should focus more on building good experiences instead of earning money, because your earning power will definitely increase over time, meaning your dollar earned per unit time is higher.

Some researchers asked people of different ages what prevented them from taking a trip. They found that people under age 60 are most constrained by time and money, whereas people 75 and older are most constrained by health problems.

Balancing Time, Money & Energy 2

We keep putting off wonderful experiences, as if in our final month we can easily squeeze in all those experiences that we had put off all our lives.

What I’m saying is that dying with zero is not only about money: It’s also about time. Start thinking more about how you use your limited time, your life energy, and you’ll be well on your way to living the fullest life you possibly can.

 

Bucket List vs. Time Buckets

Bucket List vs. Time Buckets

Some experiences can only be enjoyed at certain times

Your declining health and diminishing interests mean that your list of activities will narrow as you age, which means that your spending rate won’t remain constant: If you want to die with zero and make the most of whatever health you have at every point in your lifetime, you will need to spend more in your fifties than in your sixties, and more in your sixties than in your seventies, let alone your eighties and nineties!

Many people are willing to spend tens or even hundreds of thousands of dollars to prolong life for just a few more weeks. Think about it: That’s money that they spent years or decades working hard for. They gave up years of their life while healthy and vibrant to buy a few extra weeks of life when they are sick and immobile.

The key is to strike the right balance between spending on the present (and only on what you value) and saving smartly for the future.

 

Financial Planning for Dying with Zero

To plan to die with zero, it is actually not that hard.

Start off by estimating the maximum possible age that you will live too, then look at how much cash you will need.

Do note that your expenses (except medical) will be much lower as you age, and can be covered with a combination of annuities, insurance, savings, plus some buffer.

For every single thing you might be worried about in your future, there is an insurance product to protect you.

Financial Planning for Dying with Zero

With this new approach, your net worth should peak earlier (in your 50s-60s), instead of peaking at your death. This means that you can retire earlier, because you do not need to hoard that much assets.

 

Giving Your Money Away at the Best Time

Most people wait till they pass away before “giving” their wealth to their kids, or to charities. But have you wondered, why not give it away while you are still alive?

Why not give it to your children during the time when they can make the most of it?

Giving Your Money Away at the Best Time

I actually did an informal Twitter poll recently in which I asked people what their ideal age was to receive an inheritance windfall, and most of them agreed. Of the more than 3,500 people who voted on this question, very few (only 6 percent) said the ideal age to inherit money is 46 or older. Another 29 percent voted for ages 36 to 45, while only 12 percent said 18 to 25.

The clear winner, with more than half the votes, was the age range 26 to 35.

Why? Well, some people mentioned the time value of money and the power of compound interest, suggesting that the earlier you get the money, the better. On the other hand, a bunch of people pointed out the immaturity problem of getting the money too young. And to those two concerns, I would add the element of health: You always get more value out of money before your health begins to inevitably decline.

Bottom line? The 26-to-35 age range combines the best of all these considerations—old enough to be trusted with money, yet young enough to fully enjoy its benefits.

The upshot of all this is that if you wait until you die to have your children inherit your money, you’re leaving the outcome to chance. I call it the three Rs—giving random amounts of money at a random time to random people (because who knows which of your heirs will still be alive by the time you die?).

 

What Do You Want to Give Your Kids?

Just as you’re trying to form memories of times with your kids, it makes sense to want your kids to form memories of you. Both sets of memories will yield a memory dividend—one stream of dividends for you and one for your kids. So how do you want your kids to remember you?

Your kids will only have their childhood for a certain number of years. What experiences do you want to have with them? Or rather, what experiences do you want them to have with you?

Does each additional hour of work you do really worth it to you and your children? Does your work add to your legacy—or does it actually serve to deplete it?

 

My Views: Why Am I Not Working Harder?

I get this question quite often, as people wonder why I am not working harder, trading more, scaling my business, making more money?!?!?

My question to them is, “what is the point of making more money?”

I have more than enough money to create the experiences I want, to give to the people/charities I support, and to retire and die with zero.

I choose to spend my time doing the things I enjoy, such as playing sports, hanging out with my friends/family, reading 2000+ books, and travelling around the world (70+ countries to date).

I probably will start a family at some point, which is why I have travelled to the more challenging places so far, while leaving the family-friendly places for the future.

And I look forward to creating more awesome memories and experiences in the next 2/3s of my life. ?

 

best books on trading and investing

If you would like to find more book summaries and recommendations, also check out: “Best Investing & Trading Books of All Time”

market analysis pic 1

As various countries open their economies, notably China and the US, will it lead to a surge in new cases, and will it lead to further shutdowns?

And will the stock market be able to break new highs, or has it hit a major roadblock?

Join our FREE Telegram channel for daily trading tips:
?? https://t.me/synapsetrading

Major Events

There were some major news last week, such as the negative Fed forecast, which caused a huge dip in the stock market.

Daily new coronavirus cases continue to climb globally, with new spikes in the US and fresh outbreak clusters in China.

Major EventsMajor Events 2

Major Events 3 Major Events 4 Major Events 5

 

Stock Markets

The stock market seems to have hit a roadblock, and is taking a pause while deciding which way to head next.

I highlighted the crucial levels to look for on the S&P 500.

Tech stocks are still going strong, and the big tech giants are breaking new highs.

Stock Markets

Stock Markets 2Stock Markets 3

Stock Markets 4

Stock Markets 5

Trade Highlights

Here are some snippets from the daily trades in our private Telegram chat group for graduates of the “Trading Mastery Program”.

Trade Highlights

Trade Highlights 2

Trade Highlights 3

If you are interested to join our closely-knit community and start profiting daily from the market, click here: https://synapsetrading.com/the-synapse-program/

To read feedback form all our past students, click here: https://synapsetrading.com/testimonials/

See you on the inside! ?

market analysis pic 2

By this time, most people are also starting to believe in the V-shape recovery, and the Nasdaq has already fully recovered from the crisis, surpassing its highs before the Covid crash.

Will the tech stocks be able to lift the rest of the market to new highs, or will the general market drag down the tech giants as the reality of the economy kicks in?

Join our FREE Telegram channel for daily trading tips:
?? https://t.me/synapsetrading

Market Overview

Is the V Shape Recovery for Real

Last month, the USD was very strong, while the AUD was one of the weakest, however this month we have started to see a twist of events, where the AUDCAD is in a strong bull, while the USD/CHF is in a strong bear.

Gold has declined slightly, putting it in weak bear territory.

Nasdaq (NASUSD) remains the strongest stock market, whereas Hang Seng (H33HKD) remains the weakest.

Major Events

The biggest news of the week is probably the awesome jobs data from the US, although there was some classification error.

Is the V Shape Recovery for Real 2

Is the V Shape Recovery for Real 3

 

Stock Markets

The stock markets continued to rise, and as I posted in the case study below, since the tech stocks have gone up so much relative to the rest of the market, I was expecting the rest of the market to play catch up, and on Friday we saw the Dow Jones & S&P 500 outperforming the Nasdaq as anticipated.

Is the V Shape Recovery for Real 4Is the V Shape Recovery for Real 5

Is the V Shape Recovery for Real 6

Is the V Shape Recovery for Real 7

 

Trade Highlights

Here are some highlights and case studies of trades done on forex, commodities and CFD products, also taken from our private forum.

See more case studies: https://synapsetrading.com/trading-guides/case-studies/

 

The first is a trade we did on the USD/CAD, as it broke down from a descending triangle.

Is the V Shape Recovery for Real 8

Is the V Shape Recovery for Real 9

Is the V Shape Recovery for Real 10

 

Next, we also had a good run on Crude Oil, riding on the surge in prices as economies reopened.

Is the V Shape Recovery for Real 11

Is the V Shape Recovery for Real 12

 

Trading Insights

Is the V Shape Recovery for Real 13

Is the V Shape Recovery for Real 14

 

 

Join our Last & Final Skillsfuture Workshop!

2 weekends ago, we conducted another full-house Skillsfuture workshop, with 40 pax of new traders & investors, as well as some of my past students who sat in to help out.

So far, every intake has been a full house, which is why we expanded to 3 workshops instead of 1 originally planned, because of the overflow. But our license expires on 18 June, so this is the last and final workshop which we can hold.

This fully subsidised Skillsfuture workshop will give you the skills and roadmap to build a second source of income to plan for early financial freedom, by building an all-weather portfolio that can perform well in any market conditions, and also market timing skills to create additional cashflow from short/medium-term trades.

Date: 13 & 14 June 2020 (6pm to 10pm)

Click here to check availability:
https://wp.me/P1riws-8OX

? First-come, first-serve!
? See you soon! ?

Is the V Shape Recovery for Real 15 Is the V Shape Recovery for Real 16