Night of Roller-coasters

Memorable speech by Draghi 🙂
If you were using the daily chart, you would have the added conviction to short on new highs, since the daily chart is still bearish.

Before the Big Announcement

This is the 4th attempt to breakout of the range/channel
From the chart, it actually looks like the price might be ready to tip over…
Let’s see tonight

Although I ended with a small loss at the end of the day, I felt that this day was a victory. Before you think that I am crazy, let me explain.

Because of the probabilistic nature of trading, it is necessary to have losing trades. Depending on the style of trading, it is highly likely to have losing days as well.

The skill of a trader lies not just in being aggressive and swinging for home runs on good days, but also in being able to stay emotionally grounded and minimise losses on bad days. By bad days, I mean those days which the market does not match your trading style.

Trading Self-Reflection

There were a couple of times where my setups, timing and entry were flawless, but I lacked the conviction to hold onto my positions, and I ended up only taking a small profit, after which the price continued to run for another 3-5 times of the small profit I took.

My maximum drawdown was very close to US$1,500, which I would have stopped once that amount was hit. But I managed to recalibrate my mental state by cutting losses, getting out, and taking a break. When I came back, I switched to a defensive trading style to adopt to the market conditions, and managed to reduce my losses to under US$500.

At the point of a large loss, I have seen many traders self-destruct by taking huge gambles to “make back” their losses. This becomes irrational trading, and you no longer have the edge. It becomes gambling. If you are wondering what the difference is, you can read this article about trading and gambling.

To a trader, consistency is key. By consistency, I mean consistency in analysis ability, as well as mental stability. A good intraday trader typically has 4 winning days out of 5 trading days. In addition, the winning days should be a lot larger than the losing days.

Hence, keeping your losing days small is also an essential skill.

 

complete guide to investing and trading psychology cover

If you would like to learn more about trading psychology, also check out: “The Complete Guide to Investing & Trading Psychology”

Potential Double Top

After breaking the trendline, the Dow has had a deep correction, and is now heading to test the previous swing highs. If the resistance holds, it could form a potential double top. The price action is currently contained in a mild uptrend channel, which had a small breakout on Friday. If we see follow-through on Monday, it is likely it will head to test the swing high, but if it falls back into the channel, we can expect it head down to test the swing low, as indicated by the arrow.