Weekly Market Wrap: The Bears are Back!
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Last week, it was an eventful week filled with exciting news release, such as the CPI (Consumer Price Index) and the FOMC rate announcements.
The CPI showed a lower than expected rate of inflation, so the markets rallied, but it turned out to be a false breakout as prices closed back down by the end of the day.
The next day, the FOMC announced rate hikes in line with expectations, but showed no signs of pivoting any time soon, so the bear market resumed (as we predicted), and prices started heading south.
There is a good chance of prices hitting new lows before the end of the year, so I will gradually accumulate more shorts as my profits (buffer) increase.
If you missed out on the excellent shorting opportunity last week, fear not, because there will be more pullback opportunities to short soon.
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[Photo: Iskanderkul Lake & Waterfall, Tajikistan – See my full travel photo log!]
For our weekly market wrap, we go through some of the trade calls and analysis from last week, which gives us valuable insights for the week ahead.
We cover 3 main markets with a total of 200+ counters, so we will never run out of trading opportunities:
- Forex, CFDs, commodities, bonds
- US stocks, ETFs, global stock indices
- Cryptocurrencies, crypto indices
By covering a broad range of markets, we can focus our attention (and capital) on whichever market currently gives the best returns.
Table of Contents
Weekly Market Outlook Video
Weekly Market Outlook (11 December 2022)
2 major pieces of news this week:
13 Dec – CPI data
14 Dec – FOMC
Stock market indices are at crucial points, so I have placed price triggers so that we will know the moment any breakout occurs.
Portfolio Highlights
Weekly Portfolio Updates (11 December 2022)
With unclear direction on the stock market, the best strategy now is to hold bonds for high yields.
Forex & Commodities Market Highlights
NZDCHF is forming a tight consolidation above the support level, can consider going long with a tight stop below the support level.
Following up on CHFJPY, it has gone up +399 pips profit since we made the call. Congrats to those who went long! 💰🔥💪🏻
Now, we will continue to hold and see if it can break out of the huge bull flag and make new highs.
Exactly as predicted for EURAUD, congrats to those who went long! 💰🔥💪🏻
Following up on EURCAD, it is up +673 pips profit since our call! Congrats to those who went long! 💰🔥💪🏻
Strong rebound on USDSGD as predicted, congrats to those who traded the bounce! 💰🔥💪🏻
Stock & Bond Market Highlights
A market poll we did last week, and it seems almost 1/2 thought that the market will make new highs, while about 1/3 thought the market would make new lows.
After a false breakout a few days ago on the CPI data, all the 3 US stock indices (Dow Jones US30, Nasdaq 100 US100, S&P 500 US500) are now resuming the downtrend.
I have added more short positions. Will we see new lows before the year is over?
CPI with economist forecasts
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2022/12/fomc-preview-50bp-hike-increase.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/14/fed-rate-decision-december-2022.html
US Stocks vs Bonds Returns 1926-2022
Crypto Market Highlights
US prosecutors consider filing criminal charges against Binance and CZ for possible money laundering and sanction violations
Those with money in Binance, might want to start moving it out just in case:
Good luck, and may next week bring more excellent profits!
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Spencer is an avid globetrotter who achieved financial freedom in his 20s, while trading & teaching across 70+ countries. As a former professional trader in private equity and proprietary funds, he has over 15 years of market experience, and has been featured on more than 20 occasions in the media.
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