Tag Archive for: forex trading

Spencer Li

Weekly Market Wrap: Global Conflict Bearish for Stocks

Thumbnail banner weekly market wrap x3

Thumbnail banner weekly market wrap x3

For subscribers of our “Daily Trading Signals”, we now also include a “Weekly Market Report”, where we provide a weekly deep-dive on the market, including fundamentals, technical, economics, and portfolio management:

Click here for last week’s market report (09 October 2023)
Click here to subscribe for the latest market report (16 October 2023)
Click here to see the archives of all our past market reports

Market Recap & Upcoming Week

Last week witnessed significant global developments. In a shocking turn of events on October 7th, Gaza’s militant group, Hamas, launched sudden attacks against Israel, resulting in casualties on both sides. This unexpected assault, coinciding with the Jewish holiday of Simchat Torah, has reignited concerns reminiscent of the unanticipated 1973 Mideast war. The backdrop to this is a tumultuous landscape in Israel, with disputes over the Al-Aqsa Mosque compound and the expansion of Jewish settlements adding to the volatility. Furthermore, this surge in external conflict comes at a time when Israel is already under internal strain due to widespread protests against Prime Minister Netanyahu’s legislative proposals.

On the economic front in the U.S., a subdued sigh of relief may be in order as data reveals a slowdown in the inflation rate. September’s rate stands at 3.7% year-on-year, and 0.4% from the previous month. The slower pace, however, does not signify an all-clear for consumers. With core inflation up by 4.1% since last September and the Federal Reserve’s anticipated decisions regarding interest rates, there’s an air of cautious anticipation. A particular point of concern is the surge in mortgage rates, hitting a 23-year high, posing potential challenges for home buyers in the near future.

Brace yourselves for a whirlwind of economic updates next week as we dive deep into one of the most action-packed earnings periods of the year. Leading the charge are global titans like Tesla, Netflix, and Johnson & Johnson, followed closely by financial giants such as Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley. Furthermore, with AT&T and Lockheed Martin also unveiling their reports, expect a comprehensive insight into various sectors, shaping the financial narratives for the weeks to come.

In parallel with these corporate disclosures, pivotal economic indicators are set to be unveiled. Tuesday promises to be especially enlightening with the U.S. Census Bureau releasing September’s national retail sales data, offering a snapshot of the health of consumer spending in the country. The real estate enthusiasts should also keep their eyes peeled for the latest figures on September housing starts and existing home sales, not to mention the much-anticipated National Association of Home Builders’ Housing Market Index for October, shedding light on the housing market’s current pulse.

 

Trading Signals EURCHF 141023

EURCHF – Very nice clean trade with 190+ pips profit, congrats to those who took this trade with us! 💰🔥💪🏻

 

Trading Signals USDSGD 141023

USDSGD – Nice bull flag forming on top of resistance-turned-support, signalling more upside!

 

Trading Signals EURUSD 141023

EURUSD – Following up on this, we have increased our target profit to capture more profits for this trade.

 

Trading Signals US500 141023

S&P 500 (US500) – Following up on this, prices are unable to break above the 20 & 50-EMA, and there is a possibility they may continue downwards.

Next major level of support is the 200-EMA, which coincides with a support level on the chart.

 

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Spencer Li

Weekly Market Wrap: Jobs Much Stronger than Expected!

Thumbnail banner weekly market wrap x3

Thumbnail banner weekly market wrap x3

For subscribers of our “Daily Trading Signals”, we now also include a “Weekly Market Report”, where we provide a weekly deep-dive on the market, including fundamentals, technical, economics, and portfolio management:

Click here for last week’s market report (02 October 2023)
Click here to subscribe for the latest market report (09 October 2023)
Click here to see the archives of all our past market reports

Market Recap & Upcoming Week

Last week, Wall Street exhibited a marked change in reaction to the U.S. government’s monthly jobs report, which has lately seen an unprecedented pattern of downward revisions. This has instilled caution among traders, resulting in fewer stock trades and subdued market movements on the days of these report releases.

The ongoing trend, marking the first time since 1979 that each monthly report has revised its numbers downward, has unsettled the previously held confidence in an economy supporting higher interest rates. With traders gradually distancing themselves from jobs data, they’re now focusing on data sets with fewer adjustments.

On the brighter side, the U.S. economy showcased a significant uptick in September, adding 336,000 jobs and surpassing Wall Street’s expectations. Interestingly, the unemployment rate remained stable at 3.8%, defying predictions of a dip to 3.7%.

Though this robust growth is at odds with Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s inclination for a more moderate labor market, the general market belief, given the positive stock rebound post the report, is that the Federal Reserve is likely to retain the current interest rates in the forthcoming meeting.

Earnings season is set to begin in full swing post the Indigenous Peoples’ Day holiday. A slew of notable names from the financial sector, such as JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup, are scheduled to unveil their quarterly results.

In addition to the financial giants, market participants should also keep an eye on earnings from major corporations like PepsiCo, Delta Air Lines, and Walgreens Boots Alliance. But it’s not just about earnings. Inflation watchers should mark their calendars for Wednesday and Thursday when updates on producer and consumer prices will be released, offering insights into the current economic landscape.

The week promises more than just earnings and inflation data. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve is set to disclose meeting minutes from its recent FOMC gathering, potentially shedding light on their monetary policy outlook.

Meanwhile, for those inclined towards retail, Amazon’s “Prime Big Deal Days” is an event to watch. Kicking off on Tuesday, this two-day shopping spree offers Prime members exclusive deals on a wide array of brands and products, making it a potential boost for mid-month retail sales.

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Spencer Li

Weekly Market Wrap: Yields and USD Continue to Rise!

Thumbnail banner weekly market wrap x3

Thumbnail banner weekly market wrap x3

For subscribers of our “Daily Trading Signals”, we now also include a “Weekly Market Report”, where we provide a weekly deep-dive on the market, including fundamentals, technical, economics, and portfolio management:

Click here for last week’s market report (25 September 2023)
Click here to subscribe for the latest market report (02 October 2023)
Click here to see the archives of all our past market reports

Market Recap & Upcoming Week

Last week, the tech and financial sectors saw significant developments. Amazon announced an ambitious investment of up to $4 billion in Anthropic, positioning itself as a competitor to OpenAI, the developer of ChatGPT. This move is part of Amazon’s strategy to remain competitive against tech giants like Microsoft and Google’s Alphabet. Meanwhile, OpenAI itself seeks a massive valuation jump to $90 billion in its latest share sale, up from a previous $29 billion earlier this year.

China’s moves to reconsider price controls in its housing market and achieve self-reliance in the semiconductor industry underscored its shifting economic strategies, after concerns mounted over the fallout from Evergrande’s financial troubles, with the property giant’s shares plunging 25% due to delays in debt restructuring.

In the energy sector, oil prices soared to a one-year high as crude stockpiles dwindled, while mortgage rates in the U.S. spiked to a nearly 23-year high, presenting further challenges for the housing market. The specter of a U.S. government shutdown loomed as House Republicans canceled their recess, signaling a tense standoff in the days to come.

This week poses significant potential disruptions on both the political and economic fronts. Tensions in Congress are reaching a boiling point as a government shutdown looms. The deadlock stems from a lack of agreement on last-minute spending bills needed to sustain government operations past September 30th. The ramifications of such a shutdown are vast, affecting millions, from essential government personnel to beneficiaries of federal aid programs. Moreover, the economic impact is non-trivial.

Goldman Sachs analysts estimate that for each week the shutdown persists, the U.S. GDP growth could be slashed by 0.2 percentage points, though a swift recovery might be on the cards post an agreement. The larger concern arises from the potential shutdown of key economic agencies like the BEA, BLS, and U.S. Census Bureau. This lack of crucial data could impair the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions, especially as they prepare for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting scheduled at the end of October.

On the economic data front, expect a series of reports that will provide insights into the health and trajectory of the U.S. labor market. Starting Tuesday, we’ll receive the August JOLTS report, which will be followed on Wednesday by ADP’s National Employment Report detailing private sector payroll trends for September.

The week will culminate with the much-anticipated nonfarm payrolls report on Friday. All these updates come at a time when the Federal Reserve’s recent rate hikes have started impacting the job market, albeit it still exhibits resilience with hiring rates near historic highs. It’s a pivotal week, and stakeholders from all sectors will be watching closely.

 

Trading Signals GBPUSD 270923

GBPUSD – Following up on this trade, we are up +428 pips profit, and prices are almost hitting the TP as well!

Congrats to those who took this trade! 💰🔥💪🏻

 

Trading Signals EURUSD 270923

EURUSD – Following up on this, we are up +234 pips profit, and prices are very close to hitting our TP!

Congrats to those who took this trade! 💰🔥💪🏻

 

Trading Signals WTIUSD 290923
Crude Oil (WTIUSD) – Prices have gone up almost 50% in the last few months, will this cause inflation to spike again?

 

Trading Signals AUDUSD 300923

AUDUSD – Prices finally starting to move! 🔥

 

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Spencer Li

Weekly Market Wrap: High Interest Rates are Here to Stay?

Thumbnail banner weekly market wrap x3

Thumbnail banner weekly market wrap x3

For subscribers of our “Daily Trading Signals”, we now also include a “Weekly Market Report”, where we provide a weekly deep-dive on the market, including fundamentals, technicals, economics, and portfolio management:

Click here for last week’s market report (18 September 2023)
Click here to subscribe for the latest market report (25 September 2023)
Click here to see the archives of all our past market reports

Market Recap & Upcoming Week

In the realm of technology stocks, a potential dampening in their bright outlook is on the horizon. Central to the 2023 market rally, these stocks now grapple with the prospect of prolonged higher interest rates from the Federal Reserve. Historically, the tech sector thrived not only on industry innovation but also on ultra-low interest rates.

But with the Fed’s response to inflation, this once rosy perspective has shifted. This shift was palpable when the tech sector of the S&P 500 dropped by 29% by the end of 2022. Despite signs of recovery earlier this year, thanks to AI innovations and rate cut speculations, sustained inflation and a strong economy have led to renewed skepticism.

Meanwhile, oil prices inch closer to $100 a barrel, intensifying global inflation concerns. While countries like Saudi Arabia and Russia benefit from this surge, the ramifications for the world economy, particularly inflation and its potential effect on interest rates, are profound.

The Federal Reserve’s strategy took center stage as it continued its stance on steady interest rates, hinting at potential hikes by the year’s end. This decision coincides with their revised economic growth projection, foreseeing a 2.1% GDP rise. As the central bank reduces its bond assets, all eyes are on the future decisions of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).

Despite challenges such as escalating energy prices, the U.S. consumer spending trends suggest economic optimism. Adding to the intrigue, the Federal Reserve expressed an ambitious vision for a historically “soft landing.” With plans for an extended rate-cutting cycle, they aim for controlled inflation without severe economic repercussions.

Yet, this optimistic outlook comes with its set of challenges, as history tells us that rate escalations tend to be gradual but decreases are often abrupt. The Fed’s hope now hinges on a balance between growth and inflation management.

As we move into the upcoming week, market watchers should remain vigilant about the potential shifts in the investment landscape.

Key focus areas include the impending reports on U.S. home prices and data for new and pending home sales in August. These metrics might provide insight into the health and direction of the U.S. housing market. Alongside, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s town hall with educators on Thursday promises to offer significant cues about the central bank’s stance on prevailing economic conditions.

Moreover, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, which is the Fed’s favored measure of inflation, is slated for release on Friday, potentially influencing investment strategies. Amid these macro indicators, a series of earnings reports are due next week from corporate giants, including Costco, Micron Technology, Accenture, Nike, CarMax, and Carnival Cruise Line. These results could offer a snapshot of the business landscape, further guiding investment decisions.

 

trading signals GBPNZD 190923
GBPNZD – Pullback to support level, waiting for price alerts to trigger when the uptrend resumes

 

trading signals EURAUD 190923
EURAUD – Pullback to support area as well, waiting for price alerts to trigger when the uptrend resumes.

 

trading signals BTCUSD 190923
Bitcoin (BTCUSD) – Support levels held once again, will we see a run up soon?

 

trading signals EURAUD 240923
EURAUD – Following up, there is a good strong bullish bar today for entry.

 

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Spencer Li

Weekly Market Wrap: Is Inflation Heading Back Up Again?

Thumbnail banner weekly market wrap x3

Thumbnail banner weekly market wrap x3

For subscribers of our “Daily Trading Signals”, we now also include a “Weekly Market Report”, where we provide a weekly deep-dive on the market, including fundamentals, technicals, economics, and portfolio management:

Click here for last week’s market report (11 September 2023)
Click here to subscribe for the latest market report (18 September 2023)
Click here to see the archives of all our past market reports

Market Recap & Upcoming Week

Last week, the financial landscape exhibited a complex interplay between inflationary pressures and robust market dynamics. Despite concerns over escalating inflation, spearheaded by spiraling fuel costs, the US stock markets experienced an upswing, with investors holding onto optimism bolstered by a strong U.S. consumer base and a steady labor market.

The landscape was further buoyed by a surge in consumer spending in August, reflecting a resilient U.S economy even as suppliers confronted rising costs. However, the European Central Bank took a firm stance against inflation by implementing a historic interest rate hike, leading to significant fluctuations in the Eurozone’s financial sphere. This strategy contrasted with expectations regarding the Federal Reserve’s approach in the upcoming meeting, with anticipations leaning towards a maintenance of the current rates, rather than an increase. Concurrently, the bond market exhibited signs of caution, witnessing yields nearing the high levels last seen during the 2008 crisis.

Elsewhere in the corporate sector, there was a noticeable rally in the stocks of transportation and travel companies, a trend illustrative of the undying consumer penchant for travel despite burgeoning fuel costs. Companies like Norwegian Cruise Lines and Carnival celebrated stock climbs, while Booking Holdings enjoyed a hike in its stock price.

Notably, the market’s reception to the inflation uptick was predominantly positive, with indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite recording substantial gains, a movement tied to the potentially volatile nature of the primary inflation driver – rising fuel costs. Moreover, the global market reactions post the ECB’s rate hike were mixed, inducing a decline in the euro value while catalyzing a rally in the Eurozone bond market, and facilitating gains in the FTSE 100 and Stoxx Europe 50. Moving forward, the financial narrative remains riveted on the pivotal decisions of central banks globally and the consequent market reactions, with a keen eye on the indicators revealing the health of the U.S. and European economies.

This week all eyes are set on the world of finance as both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England gear up for their respective policy meetings. On Tuesday, Federal Reserve policymakers convene for the FOMC meeting, eagerly awaited by investors and market spectators alike, with the potent interest rate decision expected to be revealed on Wednesday.

Adding to the week’s monetary narrative, the Bank of England will be holding its own policy discussion on Thursday, with analysts around the globe anticipating the outcomes and its potential ramifications on the financial markets. In tandem with these pivotal meetings, the economic landscape will be further delineated through updates on the housing market; a sector demonstrating notable dynamism and a pulse on economic health. Details on building permits, housing starts, and existing home sales for August will be unveiled, offering a granular view of the sector’s current standing.

In addition to the governmental economic focus, the corporate sector is also bracing for a notable week with heavy hitters such as FedEx, AutoZone, and General Mills slated to report their earnings. Market analysts and investors will be keenly focusing on these reports to gauge the health and performance of these industry giants amidst the broader economic contexts laid out by the monetary policy decisions.

 

Subscribe for real-time alerts and weekly reports:
👉🏻 https://synapsetrading.com/daily-trading-signals

 

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