Posts

 

As countries around the world roll out their vaccine plans, we can see different industries and different countries recovering at different rates.

However, only a small percentage (about 5%) of the global population is vaccinated, so it might take a while before we start to see the results of the vaccines kick in to reduce new Covid cases.

If you look at the graph of new cases, it is still on the rise.

Given such a scenario, how does this affect the financial markets, and what are some of the investment opportunities we can look at?

 

Stock Market Surge

On 31 March 2021, I shared this important snippet in the public Telegram channel, because I felt that S&P 500 was going to have a breakout.

 

“Following up on the S&P 500, it is still within the range, but now the odds are much higher that it will continue going higher.

If I had to guess, I would estimate 70% bullish and 30% bearish.

This means it’s a good low-risk opportunity to add long positions, with a SL just below the recent swing low (around 3840).

Shared this with my students a few days ago, will tonight be the night the S&P 500 makes a new high?”

 

That very night, stocks broke to a new high, and has been steadily heading up for the past 1-2 weeks.

 

“Following up on our last post, the market is surging up as predicted. Congrats to those who followed! 💰😎🔥

 

As of Friday last night (9 April 2021), the S&P 500 has hit our first price target of 4125, giving us close to 4% gain so far.

 

 

We have taken half profits, and there might be small pullback where we can add positions before gunning for the next price target.

 

Not Much Upside for Oil Markets

On 27 March 2021, I shared a chart on the long-term outlook of the Crude Oil market, and I felt that that most of the post-Covid recovery has been priced into oil, and since it won’t be going up much, I suggested taking a long-term short position on it.

“Looking at the long-term chart of Crude Oil, we saw it bottom around April last year, before recovering all the way to previous highs in a 2-legged move.

Something interesting to note is that the 2 legs of the 2-legged move are exactly the same length.

Now that it has reached the pre-Covid highs, I do not see much more upside for Crude Oil.”

 

“Following up on Crude Oil, it has started turning down as predicted. Possible short entry for the next leg down.”

Since then, prices have started to turn down a little, and I will continue to hold my short positions for another possible leg of price movement downwards.

 

Will USD Become Bullish?

On 27 March 2021, I noticed that the USD was picking up strength, which was surprising, considering how much money the US has been printing.

My guess is that currently, the US is recovering faster from Covid as compared to many of the less developed countries.

 

“Looking at the US Dollar Index (DXY), it seems like after a multi-year downtrend, the USD is picking up strength.

It has broke the long-term bearish trendline, formed a small double bottom, and is now challenging the 200-EMA.”

 

Looking at the larger chart of the US Dollar Index (DXY), you can see that price has formed a double bottom, however the size of this pattern is not that convincing since it is comparatively small.

Price is now fighting in the middle of the EMAs, and we will need to see if it can emerge victorious and stay above all the EMAs.

 

Relative Strength of Forex Pairs

Let’s take a look at the other currencies and their relative strength.

This shows the current ranking of different currencies, from strongest to weakest.

 

“Stocks continue to surge as predicted, and because the JPY is weakening, all pairs of /JPY are very bullish too.”

This shows the trends of the different currency pairs, stocks indices, commodities and bonds.

From these 2 tables, we can see that JPY & GPY are bearish, while USD & CHF are bullish.

 

Crypto: Bitcoin & Ethereum

Cryptocurrencies are really heating up right now, and I’ll be focusing on the 2 major ones – Bitcoin (BTC/USD) and Ethereum (ETH/USD).

 

Looking at the chart of Bitcoin (BTC/USD), it is still staying nicely within the uptrend channel, with a nice ascending triangle building up for more bullish pressure.

It is very likely that it will break new highs this weekend.

 

Looking at the chart of Ethereum (ETH/USD), it is possibly even more bullish than Bitcoin, after a breakout of a ascending triangle, a pullback to test the breakout, which also formed a bull flag.

That is already a confluence of 3 bullish factors.

Needless to say, I will be holding on to this as well.

 

Market Summary

In this post, I have covered many markets, and the key things to note are:

  • Bullishness of the stock market
  • Long-term bearishness of Crude Oil
  • Potential bullish reversal of the USD
  • Bearishness of JPY & GPY
  • Bullishness of USD & CHF
  • Bullishness of cryptocurrencies

Now that I have shared my views on the various markets, what do you think is the best investment at this point of time?

Let me know in the comments below!

By this time, most people are also starting to believe in the V-shape recovery, and the Nasdaq has already fully recovered from the crisis, surpassing its highs before the Covid crash.

Will the tech stocks be able to lift the rest of the market to new highs, or will the general market drag down the tech giants as the reality of the economy kicks in?

Join our FREE Telegram channel for daily trading tips:
👉🏻 https://t.me/synapsetrading

Market Overview

Last month, the USD was very strong, while the AUD was one of the weakest, however this month we have started to see a twist of events, where the AUDCAD is in a strong bull, while the USD/CHF is in a strong bear.

Gold has declined slightly, putting it in weak bear territory.

Nasdaq (NASUSD) remains the strongest stock market, whereas Hang Seng (H33HKD) remains the weakest.

Major Events

The biggest news of the week is probably the awesome jobs data from the US, although there was some classification error.

 

Stock Markets

The stock markets continued to rise, and as I posted in the case study below, since the tech stocks have gone up so much relative to the rest of the market, I was expecting the rest of the market to play catch up, and on Friday we saw the Dow Jones & S&P 500 outperforming the Nasdaq as anticipated.

 

Trade Highlights

Here are some highlights and case studies of trades done on forex, commodities and CFD products, also taken from our private forum.

See more case studies: https://synapsetrading.com/trading-guides/case-studies/

 

The first is a trade we did on the USD/CAD, as it broke down from a descending triangle.

 

Next, we also had a good run on Crude Oil, riding on the surge in prices as economies reopened.

 

Trading Insights

 

 

Join our Last & Final Skillsfuture Workshop!

2 weekends ago, we conducted another full-house Skillsfuture workshop, with 40 pax of new traders & investors, as well as some of my past students who sat in to help out.

So far, every intake has been a full house, which is why we expanded to 3 workshops instead of 1 originally planned, because of the overflow. But our license expires on 18 June, so this is the last and final workshop which we can hold.

This fully subsidised Skillsfuture workshop will give you the skills and roadmap to build a second source of income to plan for early financial freedom, by building an all-weather portfolio that can perform well in any market conditions, and also market timing skills to create additional cashflow from short/medium-term trades.

Date: 13 & 14 June 2020 (6pm to 10pm)

Click here to check availability:
🔥 https://wp.me/P1riws-8OX

💰 First-come, first-serve!
🍻 See you soon! 😄

After seeing negative prices in Crude Oil futures, will oil prices stay depressed, or will they recover any time soon?

With stock markets unclear, and the US dollar fluctuating wildly, is Gold a good long-term investment now?

Join our FREE Telegram channel for daily trading tips:
👉🏻 https://t.me/synapsetrading

 

Market Overview

Looking at the “Daily Trend Analysis” on our Telegram channel, we can see that the most bullish counters are Gold (XAUUSD) and the US Dollar Index (USDIDX), whereas the most bearish counters are Brent (BCOUSD) and Crude Oil (WTIUSD).

The stock markets are pretty mixed, with most indices either being in a weak bear trend, or ranging.

 

Can Gold Hit $3000?

According to analysts from the Bank of America, they now have an 18-month target of $3000 for Gold, which seems pretty bullish, considering we have not even cleared $2000 yet.

Normally, it is quite rare for the USD and Gold to trend strongly in the same direction, but we are seeing it now.

In the short/medium-term, since USD is a reserve currency, it is in demand when liquidity dries up, whoever with the aggressive money printing, it might decline in the long run.

As proposed by Ray Dalio, we are nearing the end of a 75-year debt cycle, which could see massive deleveraging and devaluation of the US Dollar. If that happens, then it will definitely be bullish for Gold.

This is the reason I have been actively adding Gold to my long-term portfolio.

 

Normally, commodities tend to lag Gold, and eventually “catch up” once inflation kicks in, however this time demand is at an all-time low.

 

We have had great success buying the dips on Gold, and our most recent trading positions are already in the money. 💰😎🔥

Will continue to hold for more upside.

 

How Long Will Oil Stay Cheap?

After seeing the May Crude Oil futures hit negative, traders are getting spooked for the June contracts, because they are afraid the same thing will happen if the lockdown is still in force, and demand remains low.

Looking at the virus numbers, the possibility is high.

 

Even if the lockdown does end, there is too much pent-up supply, and a lack of storage.

Hence prices could remain low or continue falling.

 

We have taken full profit on our crude oil shorts, and will not be taking any new positions for the time being, since many brokers do not allow new positions to be initiated due to the liquidity.

This has turned out to be one of the most profitable trades of the year. 💰😎🔥


< h2>Ranging Stock Markets

Lastly, for the stock market, I would say I am 65% bearish, and 35% bullish.

Since there are no clear signs, I will testing the waters with small positions, but will not be taking any large positions yet.

Stay tuned in our Telegram channel to continue monitoring the stock market for the right time.

Start Your Trading Journey Today!

If you are interested to start your journey with our closely-knit community, click on the link below: https://synapsetrading.com/the-synapse-program/

Here is some feedback from our students:

“Great course. I have studied about candlesticks and chart patterns before attending the course. However, not able to put them together to make consistent result. This course really stitch together and show me how to combine all the knowledge that I have learnt.” – Kyaw Zaw Than

“Course was comprehensive with clear explanation for each strategy taught. Good amount of case study to discuss for better understanding.” – Ethan

“Spencer is extremely detailed and methodical in his explanation. Program is extremely comprehensive.” – Tessa Ong

“Before this I learnt a lot of strategies from books and friends – After this programme I learnt to stick to one and profit.” – Rahim, Freelance Artist

“Trading made simple with only a few setup to master and focus on. Not too much information overload.” – Jude

See you on the inside! 🍻

If you have been keeping up with the news, you will know that oil futures (May) have hit negative territory for the first time in history, and that has spooked the stock market as well.

Going forward, will this be the catalyst that causes another leg down in the stock market, or will we see the lockdowns ending soon, and the economy returning to normal?

Join our FREE Telegram channel for daily trading tips:
👉🏻 https://t.me/synapsetrading

Did You Catch This Epic Oil Crash?

If you are wondering why oil prices managed to go negative, the reason is quite simple:

Oil costs money to store.

Due to the economic collapse, oil isn’t being used much.

So all the storage facilities are filled up. So nobody who can store it will buy it from you.

If you want to get rid of oil, you have to pay someone.

When oil was trading at $20, we were already short with a target of $10.

To be honest, I did not really think it could go that low, and was prepared to take profits along the way.

But sometimes if you get the direction right, you might get lucky and enjoy a windfall profit.

 

It is worth noting that only the May contract dropped drastically, while the June and July contracts remained much higher.

This means that traders are expecting some economic recovery (and an increase in demand?) in the coming weeks or months.

 

Something interesting to note is the divergence between stocks and oil, shared by one of community members.

How Will This Affect the Stock Market?

Comparing across different asset classes, we can see that crude oil and the 10-year treasury are bearish, while the long-term treasury bonds and Gold are bullish.

The S&P 500 is somewhat sideways, and has not decided which way it would follow.

 

Most fund managers seem to think that the recovery will be U-shaped, meaning we can expected a prolonged sideways movement in the stock market while the real economy takes its time to recover.

The second most popular option is the W-shape recovery, meaning they expect another leg down to test the prior lows. This one has my vote as well.

And lastly only 15% think a V-shape recovery is likely.

 

Based on what I posted last week, there are 2 potential areas which I feel offer a high probability short trade, and if prices manage to clear the 3000 level, then I will rethink the W-shape hypothesis.

Updates Regarding the Covid Situation

 

Although the number of cases seem to have peaked in most major economies, and the US might want to relax its lockdown and resume the economy, there is a high risk of a second wave of infections, which might actually drive the second leg down of the stock market.

Also, the number of cases in developing countries seem unusually low, which is likely a case of not doing much tests. Hence there is a real risk that we might see an explosion of cases once the testing scales up.

Now that things have started to stabilise, many countries are starting to point fingers at China for their slow disclosure of the virus, thus allowing it to spread globally and wrecking havoc worldwide.

This could lead to more global tension and conflicts going forward.

As you can see, there are always many exciting trading opportunities in the markets, and I think that another big move is coming really soon, so now would be a really great time if you plan to start learning about trading & investing.

Start Your Trading Journey Today!

If you want to learn, you might as well learn from the best. 😄

Here is some feedback from our students:

“I am more confident to trade better with the setups I have learnt. I confident to meet my goals if I take action.” – Joseph Benjamin

“Really enjoyed the training by Spencer. He makes a complicated topic easy to understand and actionable.” – David Lee, Offset Pte Ltd

“Spencer has been a very good coach and is very equipped with skills that he can impart to us!” – Jun Hao

“Happy with the course as it gives a good intro and holistic approach. A unique TA approach to market. Also comes with many tools to help us kickstart the process.”

“The course is well-planned and thought-out. As an experienced trader, I feel it definitely helps me to have an edge over the markets in various ways.” – Shi Min

“A comprehensive and insightful course that is useful for those looking to understand technical analysis better.” – Daniel Tan

“Would recommend this course to others. I think, more focus on each type/setup will be good.” – Junnaidy

“Great resources and support to understand content. Spencer has condensed his market knowledge and experiences for new traders to understand and learn well.” – Minghan, MOE

If you are interested to start your journey with our community, click on the link below: https://synapsetrading.com/the-synapse-program/

See you on the inside! 🍻

For the past few weeks, we have seen a strong rebound in stocks, but at the same time, we have also seen a plunge in Oil, crazy volatility in the USD, and a surge in Gold.

How can we make sense of this crazy market, when it seems like everything is moving in different directions? Does it mean it is risk-on for now, and is the market bottom already in?

Join our FREE Telegram channel for daily trading tips:
👉🏻 https://t.me/synapsetrading

Due to popular request, I will be doing a 1-hour Facebook Live session which is open to the public, where you will get the chance to ask me any questions you have about trading or investing, or the current market situation.

👉🏻 https://t.me/synapsetrading/1818

Is the Stock Market Bottom In?

To be honest, no one really knows at this point.

After reading all the different articles, news, opinions and data, it seems the consensus is pretty split on this.

I also did a poll on Telegram, which seems to favour more downside.

 

So is it possible that we are actually here?

 

Let’s take a look at the arguments for each side.

Bullish case:

  • Slowing number of cases and hospitalisations after lockdown measures
  • Possible that lockdown will end soon and economy returns to normal
  • Unprecedented fiscal and monetary policies to boost economy
  • Only certain industries are hit pretty bad, the rest of the economy is still ok
  • It is a matter of time before a vaccine is found
  • China is already “back to normal” after lifting their lockdown

Bearish case:

  • Permanent damage to the economy – lost jobs, businesses shut down, loan defaults, etc
  • Less future spending – change of habits, less discretionary spending
  • Lockdown (full or partial) may last a really long time
  • 2nd wave of infections after lockdown is lifted
  • Domino effect of economy failure has yet to really kick in
  • Fiscal & monetary policy is insufficient to save the economy

 

How to Swing Trade the Stock Market?

If I had to put a number on it, I would say I am 60% bearish, and 40% bullish.

Based on this opinion (and of course studying the price action), my general strategy is to do short/medium-term bullish swing trades, while at the same time looking for an opportunity to take a long-term bearish trade.

This will allow me to profit from the short/medium-term price rebound, based on the price action, but also not miss out from the potentially bigger long-term move down, should it happen.


From the chart, the strongest level of resistance is the gap around the 2900-3000 level, so if prices manage to close and stay above that, then I will reconsider my bearish hypothesis.

Tesla – Very Strong Price Rebound

After the sharp plunge when the stock price was almost hitting $1000, Tesla fell sharply to the $380 to $400 buying zone, which was the area I was planning to accumulate the stock.

It had an amazing rally after that, and as of today’s closing it is up almost 90% from my initial entry price. Congrats to those who took the trade with us!

 

Crude Oil – Double Whammy Selldown

Crude oil was very unfortunately to suffer a confluence of bad news, including price wars, and a huge decline in demand due to restriction of travel.

As price continues to drift down, we have seen the main exporters try to put together some deals and supply cuts, but the problem is that demand is too low, and even with a decrease in supply, there is still an increasing supply glut.

So unless we see lockdowns being lifted, and the economy going back to normal, we can expect crude oil to continue falling. This will get worse the longer the lockdown lasts.

 

Gold – The Hedge for USD

After seeing how the Fed (and almost every huge economy) is printing billions and trillions of dollars to save the economy, it is highly possible that we might see a devaluation of the US Dollar in the long-run.

For many traders and investors, they see Gold as a good way to hedge against the decline in value of the USD, which could explain the huge surge in Gold prices.

Thankfully, we managed to start buying in near the lows, and slowly accumulated on the way up.

As I mentioned in the post, I think this is a good medium/long-term trade, so for investors, you might want to add some of this in your investment portfolio as well.

Want to Start Your Trading Journey?

Here are some very practical trading tips which will be very useful, especially during such market conditions.

 

In trading, it is important to find the right mentor and the right community, because having the right support is very important if you want to succeed as a trader.

 

If you are interested to start your journey with our community, click on the link below: https://synapsetrading.com/the-synapse-program/

See you on the inside! 🍻