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Last week, we had an epic week, with stock indices swinging up and down on alternate days, giving swing traders one of the best opportunities to trade.

Yields plunged (which meant bonds spiked), Gold was up, and oil was also bearish.

In this post, I will be giving an update on 2 of my largest positions:

  • Short position on Crude Oil
  • Short position on S&P 500

 

Short position on Crude Oil

For those of you following my last blog post or my Telegram channel, you will know that I have been stacking my short positions in oil for quite a while, and recently with the price war OPEC, Russia and the US are having, prices are on a downward spiral.

Just today, prices plunged 25-30% in one day!

I have taken the chance to cover my positions, and recently initiated a long position at $30, as I feel that it is a bit oversold, and prices are very near the lows back in 2003 and 2016, so maybe negotiations might start again to push prices back up.

Crude Oil

Crude Oil 2Crude Oil 3

 

Short position on S&P 500

For those who have been following closely, you will also know that I have been short on the stock market, using the S&P 500 as a benchmark.

At the first sign of decline, I posted this predictive roadmap, which has turned out be be uncannily accurate.

Crude Oil 4

 

Simply by following this, my students and I have managed to stay one step ahead in the market, and we have been profiting handsomely both from long and short positions.

As I mentioned in my last trading video, you need a solid trading plan if you want to be able to make money from the markets, instead of chasing price movements blindly.

 

Crude Oil 5


This is where we are the moment in the roadmap, and I am still holding my short positions.

Crude Oil 6

Is this a good time to start buying?

In the long run, I am still bullish on stocks, so I will keep looking for good buying opportunities.

The challenge, however, is avoiding large drawdowns.

So I will want to wait for the dust to settle before buying, and not attempt to catch a falling knife.

If you look at the chart below, since the 1970s, there have only been 3 times when the market corrected to 50% or more, so such super crashes are actually pretty rare.

So maybe a 20-25% correction this time might be more likely, I will see when we get there, since I am still short at the moment.

 

Crude Oil 7

 

Overall, the last 2 months have been pretty fantastic, with 39.81% portfolio gains in February, and 25.8% returns so far in March.

These gains large larger than normal, due to market conditions, but it would allow me to chill for the rest of the year. ?

Remember, it’s not how many shots you make, but how many shot actually hit the target. One good shot is all is needed to make the kill.

Crude Oil 8

 

Going forward, this week the market is looking bearish now, and the level of fear is increasing. This will present us with excellent trading opportunities.

If you would like to avoid missing out on any of such awesome trades (which we deliver on a daily basis), then you should definitely check out our training program & trading signals bundle:
https://synapsetrading.com/the-synapse-program/

See you on the inside!

why day trading will make you less money

Most people think that in trading, the more trades you make, the money more you will end up making.

But is this really true?

Traders who adopt this philosophy will constantly be chasing the next big shiny object, reading every piece of news online, and hunting for new opportunities every day.

The danger with this approach is that you stretch yourself too thin, which leads to decision fatigue. Even when the low-hanging fruit and easy opportunities are right in front of you, you might be too busy out hunting to see and seize those trading opportunities.

The allure of excessive trading attracts new traders, who want to make as many trades as possible, and get rich quickly in a short period of time.

Thus they are attracted to day-trading, even though intraday trading is only suitable for the most experienced and advanced traders. Most new traders would be much better of doing swing trading or position trading, where they can hone their skills in a less fast-paced and risky environment.

The advantages of trading less are numerous:
– allows you to focus on the best trades and best strategies
– helps you avoid bad trades and excessive trading
– makes trading less stressful
– do not need to constantly monitor the market
– less transactions means less transaction costs

Hence, for those traders who are making too many trades, it would be good to check your past trading records, and see if trading less might actually improve your trading results.

Enjoy the video, and remember to “like” and “subscribe”!

 

complete guide to investing and trading psychology cover

If you would like to learn more about trading psychology, also check out: “The Complete Guide to Investing & Trading Psychology”

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Last week, we saw the stock market decline for every day of the week, crashing about 15% from all-time highs, making it the sharpest decline in history.

This huge spike in volatility was excellent for short-term traders, and might also be an opportunity for bargain hunters looking to buy stocks cheaper.

I also made a short video talking about the different approaches to tackle the market crash:

The Start of the Decline

The first 2-3 days of decline was sparked after fears of a worldwide contagion of the Covid-19 virus, which saw a gap down on the S&P 500.

I started to post warnings about not trying to pick the bottom or to start buying, because I knew that a larger move was likely to come.

The Start of the Decline

 

How Far Can this Crash Continue?

As the crash continued, I consulted my charts to plot a possible long-term roadmap, which would see a continued decline to about 15-20%, followed by a rebound and period of consolidation.

How Far Can this Crash Continue

 

If there is a strong second wave of selling, we could see a larger sell-off to the bottom of the trendline, or the 200-moving average of the weekly chart.

How Far Can this Crash Continue 2

 

At the same time, we also started initiating short positions on Crude Oil and AUD/JPY.

How Far Can this Crash Continue 3

How Far Can this Crash Continue 4

How to Catch a Falling Knife (Successfully)

On Friday, I predicted that there would be a rebound towards the closing, since there was no meaningful pullback after 6 consecutive days of selling, and also traders would likely close their short positions going into the weekend.

So I started accumulating long positions as the market tested new lows, and true enough, there wasn’t much further decline and even had a bullish surge into the closing minutes.

I took the chance to liquidate some of my positions to lock in my profits for the weekend.

How to Catch a Falling Knife

How to Catch a Falling Knife 2

How to Catch a Falling Knife 3

 

Overview of Trading Results for Friday

Overall, it was a once-in-a-lifetime exciting chance to trade such volatility, and also a great learning experience for my students as we got to observe and discuss it together in real-time.

My trading portfolio booked a net 39.52% gain, with most of the profits coming from just 3 positions:

  • Short on AUD/JPY
  • Short on Crude Oil
  • Catching the bottom of S&P 500

Overview of Trading Results for Friday

Overview of Trading Results for Friday 2

 

Going forward, next week is going to be an excellent week for bargain hunting, and I have already posted my target portfolio allocation for my students so that we can be on the lookout for buying opportunnities.

If you would like to avoid missing out on any of such awesome trades (which we deliver on a daily basis), then you should definitely check out our training program & trading signals bundle:
https://synapsetrading.com/the-synapse-program/

See you on the inside!

profit from market crash

With many momentum-based trading algorithms in the market nowadays, corrections tend to be sharp and vicious, leaving many traders and investors shell-shocked and unprofitable.

As a market participant, what is your strategy when approaching such a market? What is the best way for you to take advantage of this opportunity?

Enjoy the video, and remember to “like” and “subscribe”!

does your portfolio fare well in crisis

In a bull market, everyone is a genius because it does not take any skill to get great returns.

However, the real test of your portfolio is during a market crash or crisis. How will it fare if the stock market drops 50%?

If your portfolio is anti-fragile, it will actually benefit from such market volatility, and give you opportunities to buy assets on discount.

Enjoy the video, and remember to “like” and “subscribe”!