In the news, U.S. and Chinese officials are “close to finalizing” some parts of a trade agreement after high-level telephone discussions on Friday, the U.S. Trade Representative’s office and China’s Commerce Ministry said.
This seems to bode well for the stock market, with prices already creeping up to test the prior highs.
So will we see new highs? And how bullish are these new highs?
Unless there is a drastic turn of events, I am pretty confident we will see new highs.
However, the question of how sustainable these new highs are are more difficult to answer.
For example, there are other factors to consider, such as whether both sides stick to the agreement and the trade war does not escalate again.
There is also the Trump impeachment which is going on.
And there is also the softening of the US economy, which will also affect markets negatively.
So it is a matter of balancing the positive and negative catalysts, and deciding which are more important in the short-run and long-run.
Unfortunately, I am not seeing many long-term positive catalysts.