Blog: Market Analysis

Click here for last week’s market report (03 July 2023)
Click here to subscribe for the latest market report (10 July 2023)
Click here to see the archives of all our past market reports

For subscribers of our “Daily Trading Signals”, we now also include a “Weekly Market Report”, where we provide a weekly deep-dive on the market, including fundamentals, technicals, economics, and portfolio management:

Market Recap & Upcoming Week

The U.S. labor market and inflation rates are showing signs of slowing down, albeit not stagnating, according to the latest data from the Labor Department.

In June’s NFP Jobs report, 209,000 jobs were added to the economy, down from May’s figure of 306,000, and the unemployment rate decreased to 3.6%. This performance exceeded initial expectations set by the Federal Reserve and Wall Street.

In addition, persistent labor demand has led to lowered predictions for the unemployment rate for the end of 2023, particularly in sectors affected by the pandemic.

On the other hand, inflation rates continue to exceed predictions.

The Fed’s Q4 2023 inflation forecast, excluding food and energy, has increased from 3.5% to 3.9%, suggesting possible rate hikes in future meetings. The key question now revolves around whether inflation will slow down faster than the job market, thereby influencing the future trajectory of monetary policy.

If inflation cools off sufficiently, the Fed could stop rate hikes, but if it remains high, additional rate hikes might be necessary to maintain the balance between employment and inflation.

The upcoming week is set to be packed with crucial financial information as earnings season gets underway.

Reports from some of the world’s most prominent financial institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, and BlackRock are eagerly awaited. Additionally, key players from other industries, such as PepsiCo, Delta Air Lines, and UnitedHealth Group, will also be disclosing their earnings reports.

These reports will likely provide insight into the performance and future direction of these companies, as well as offer a sense of the current state of the economy.

Alongside these company reports, crucial economic indicators will be announced.

On Wednesday, the June Consumer Price Index (CPI) is scheduled for release, followed by the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Thursday. Both of these will offer valuable information about the current state of inflation in the economy.

To round out the week, the University of Michigan will release the preliminary reading of its Consumer Sentiment Index (MCSI) for July on Friday. This metric will provide a valuable measure of consumer confidence, giving a timely snapshot of the public’s overall economic sentiment.

Daily Trading Signals (Highlights)

We cover 3 main markets with a total of 200+ counters, so we will never run out of trading opportunities:

Forex, CFDs, commodities, bonds
US stocks, ETFs, global stock indices
Cryptocurrencies, crypto indices

By covering a broad range of markets, we can focus our attention (and capital) on whichever market currently gives the best returns.

Subscribe for real-time alerts and weekly reports:
👉🏻 https://synapsetrading.com/daily-trading-signals

AUDNZD – Prices continuing lower for our short positions, with 200+ pips profit in the money! 💰🔥💪🏻

AUDJPY – Following up from the weekly videos, after hitting our first target, we have now extended our TP to a more ambitious target! 💰🔥💪🏻

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) – Following up, prices are now testing prior swing highs, and there is a good chance of a new breakout soon.

We have adjusted a further price target to reflect more upsize, as we are now in the money. 💰💪🏻🔥

USDJPY – Following up on this long trade, we are now 600+ pips profit in the money! Congrats to those who took this trade! 💰🔥💪🏻

We adjusted the target upwards since the price is so bullish, but it is also a good idea to take some profits first.

Spencer is an avid globetrotter who achieved financial freedom in his 20s, while trading & teaching across 70+ countries. As a former professional trader in private equity and proprietary funds, he has over 15 years of market experience, and has been featured on more than 20 occasions in the media.

Weekly Market Wrap: Stocks End First Half of 2023 on a High Note!

Click here for last week’s market report (26 June 2023)
Click here to subscribe for the latest market report (03 July 2023)
Click here to see the archives of all our past market reports

Market Recap & Upcoming Week

Last week, investors demonstrated increasing optimism as bullish options bets surged on stocks across various sectors, including AI stocks, small-scale economically-sensitive companies, and regional banks.

This positive sentiment was reflected in the significant market rallies seen in 2023, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite climbing 13% and 29% respectively. Despite a brief pause in the rally after Federal Reserve officials reiterated their intention to continue raising interest rates, traders remained bullish, with the fear of missing out driving investors to participate in potential future gains.

In AI news, Baidu Inc., China’s leading search engine, claimed that its AI service, Ernie 3.5, outperformed OpenAI’s GPT-3.5 chatbot in general abilities and exceeded GPT-4’s performance in several Chinese-language tasks. Baidu plans to integrate Ernie Bot across various business areas and has earmarked a $140 million venture fund for investing in AI startups.

Meanwhile, the Biden administration is considering imposing further limitations on the export of AI chips to China, potentially preventing companies like Nvidia from shipping chips to China without prior licensing. Lastly, Oracle Corp is investing heavily in Nvidia chips and CPUs from Ampere Computing and AMD as it seeks to expand its cloud computing services and compete in the fast-growing cloud sector.

In the upcoming week, market participants should brace for a flurry of significant economic events that could potentially trigger increased market volatility. The week kicks off with a holiday-shortened trading schedule due to the U.S. Independence Day, which could result in thinner trading volumes.

However, the focus will quickly shift to crucial labor market updates, including the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) and ADP’s National Employment Report, both slated for release on Thursday. These reports will provide valuable insights into the state of the U.S. labor market, setting the stage for Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report, which will track job growth in June.

In addition to labor market data, investors should also keep an eye on the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) readings from S&P Global and the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). These indices provide a gauge of the economic health of the manufacturing sector, which is a key driver of economic growth.

Furthermore, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes from its latest policy meeting, offering deeper insights into the central bank’s views on the economy and potential future policy shifts. Given the current market sensitivity to changes in monetary policy, these minutes will be closely scrutinized for any hints of changes in the Fed’s stance.

Daily Trading Signals (Highlights)

We cover 3 main markets with a total of 200+ counters, so we will never run out of trading opportunities:

Forex, CFDs, commodities, bonds
US stocks, ETFs, global stock indices
Cryptocurrencies, crypto indices

By covering a broad range of markets, we can focus our attention (and capital) on whichever market currently gives the best returns.

Subscribe for real-time alerts and weekly reports:
👉🏻 https://synapsetrading.com/daily-trading-signals

AUDNZD – Trade moving as planned, halfway to the profit target. 🔥

NZDUSD – Prices are starting to head down again.

C3.ai (AI) – This US tech stock is currently resting on strong support, offering a good RR ratio.

Weekly Market Wrap: Small Correction for Tech Stocks

Click here for last week’s market report (19 June 2023)
Click here to subscribe for the latest market report (26 June 2023)
Click here to see the archives of all our past market reports

Market Recap & Upcoming Week

Last week was marked by significant shifts in the global economy, with a particular focus on the energy sector, housing markets, and technology giants.

Siemens Energy’s shares plummeted due to concerns about its wind turbine operations, with costs expected to exceed 1 billion euros.

Meanwhile, the U.S. housing market experienced its most significant drop in over a decade due to higher interest rates.

In the tech sector, Amazon faced a lawsuit from the FTC over alleged “manipulative” tactics used to enroll users into its Prime subscription service.

The U.S. also increased its surveillance of Chinese telecom giants ZTE and Huawei, suspecting them of aiding Beijing’s eavesdropping capabilities in Cuba.

In Europe, business activity experienced a sharp decrease in June, largely due to weakening demand for services, suggesting that the global economy may be slowing down. Germany, once the powerhouse of Europe’s economy, is now seen as a factor dragging it down due to a combination of short-term and structural issues.

European business confidence in China also hit a record low due to China’s sluggish economy and ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions. However, the EU is proposing a $55 billion economic support package for Ukraine, demonstrating continued support for Kyiv.

In the tech sector, European ride-hailing company Bolt announced plans to deliver food using self-driving robots, and the tiny Pacific island nation of Palau introduced a “Digital Residency” program, potentially providing a workaround for bans on cryptocurrency services.

As we approach the last trading week of the month, quarter, and first half of the year, all eyes will be on the S&P 500, which has seen a robust growth of 13.8% in 2023.

Given historical trends, there’s an 82% chance that the index will end the year on a high note if it’s up by at least 10% by the end of June, according to research from the Carson Group. This could potentially translate into an average gain of 7.7%.

Additionally, the earnings reports from major companies like Carnival Cruise Line, Walgreens, Micron Technology, General Mills, and Nike will be crucial to watch, as they could provide further insights into the health of various sectors and the overall economy.

Next week will also bring a slew of economic data that could influence market trends.

Updates on the housing market, including April home prices and May new home sales, will provide a snapshot of the real estate sector’s performance. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is set to release the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index on Friday, which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation.

Other key data releases include consumer sentiment readings from the Conference Board and University of Michigan, the final estimate for the first-quarter GDP, and inflation and unemployment figures for the eurozone. These data points will be critical in shaping investor sentiment and could potentially impact market movements.

Daily Trading Signals (Highlights)

We cover 3 main markets with a total of 200+ counters, so we will never run out of trading opportunities:

Forex, CFDs, commodities, bonds
US stocks, ETFs, global stock indices
Cryptocurrencies, crypto indices

By covering a broad range of markets, we can focus our attention (and capital) on whichever market currently gives the best returns.

Subscribe for real-time alerts and weekly reports:
👉🏻 https://synapsetrading.com/daily-trading-signals

USDJPY – After a pullback, prices are resuming the uptrend. Continue holding for more profits! 💪

Weekly Market Wrap: 2 More Rates Hikes Coming Up?

Click here for last week’s market report (12 June 2023)
Click here to subscribe for the latest market report (19 June 2023)
Click here to see the archives of all our past market reports

Market Recap & Upcoming Week

Last week, the Federal Reserve raised the Fed Funds rate for the tenth time, resulting in the highest prime rate in almost two decades. The U.S. debt continues to grow, limiting access to capital and damaging the credit rating.

However, the inflation rate in the U.S. softened in May, providing some relief and reducing pressure on the Federal Reserve to continue raising interest rates.

Meanwhile, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) cut lending rates due to the struggles of the post-Covid recovery, marked by decreased lending and economic credit growth.

The market transitioned into a bull phase, with the S&P 500 entering a bull market and positive investor sentiment prevailing.

The Federal Reserve halted interest rate increases for now but signaled the possibility of two more hikes by year-end.

Looking ahead, investors will closely monitor the Federal Reserve’s decisions, inflation trends, and the ongoing economic recovery to navigate market dynamics and anticipate future monetary policy adjustments.

This week, investors should pay attention to the housing market updates, including building permits, housing starts, and the NAHB’s Housing Market Index. These indicators will provide valuable insights into the health and momentum of the housing sector.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony before Congress will also be a significant event, as it could provide clues about the central bank’s monetary policy direction.

Additionally, the release of S&P Global’s Purchasing Managers’ Index for June will offer valuable data on the overall economic activity and sentiment.

In the corporate landscape, keep an eye on the earnings reports from companies such as FedEx, Accenture, Darden Restaurants, and BlackBerry. These reports will shed light on the financial performance of these companies and provide indications of industry trends. The market will be keen to assess the impact of recent developments and economic conditions on their results.

Overall, this week presents a range of key economic indicators and corporate updates that will shape market sentiments and provide valuable insights into the housing market, economy, and corporate performance.

Daily Trading Signals (Highlights)

We cover 3 main markets with a total of 200+ counters, so we will never run out of trading opportunities:

Forex, CFDs, commodities, bonds
US stocks, ETFs, global stock indices
Cryptocurrencies, crypto indices

By covering a broad range of markets, we can focus our attention (and capital) on whichever market currently gives the best returns.

Subscribe for real-time alerts and weekly reports:
👉🏻 https://synapsetrading.com/daily-trading-signals

AUDNZD – Following up, price are now at the top of the range, making it a good RR trade for a short.

China tech stocks ETF (3067) – Now that the US tech stocks have gone up a lot (due to AI), could China tech stocks be next?

Weekly Market Wrap: CPI and FOMC Coming Up Next Week!