Spencer Li

Market Analysis – Virus, Riots & Trade Wars

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Some people have been thinking that nothing can bring the stock market down, because it has been steadily chugging up despite all the negative news of virus, lockdowns, unemployment, trade wars, and now riots.

So can the market continue to climb up forever? What will it take to actually bring the market down?

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Market Overview

Riots & Trade Wars

The strong bullish trending markets are Gold (XAU/USD), Nasdaq (NASUSD), and the US 10-year T-Note Futures (TNOTEUSD), which have been trending for quite a while, and our positions there have remained largely unchanged.

The most bearish market is the Hang Seng (H33HKD), which is not surprisingly since China is planning to enact more stringent national security laws, which will likely negatively impact Hong Kong’s financial markets.

 

Major Events

This has been a very eventful year so far, with the virus outbreaks, quarantines, job market crashing, and now the slow re-opening of the economy.

Amidst all that, the amazing thing is that the stock market is recovering much faster than the economy.

And now, tensions between US and China are stepping up, with China’s latest actions on HK and corresponding US retaliation, adding to the accusations of China covering up the virus at the start of the outbreak.

And in the US, we are seeing riots and looting, after a white cop killed a black guy in broad daylight during arrest.

Riots & Trade Wars 2Riots & Trade Wars 3

 

US Stock Markets

The US stock market, especially the NASDAQ, has been on steroids, thanks to the dominance of tech stocks.

In my private forum with my students, I shared a detailed analysis of the S&P 500.

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Trade Highlights

Here are some highlights and case studies of trades done on forex, commodities and CFD products, also taken from our private forum.

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Join our Last & Final Skillsfuture Workshop!

Last weekend, we conducted another full-house Skillsfuture workshop, with 40 pax of new traders & investors, as well as some of my past students who sat in to help out.

So far, every intake has been a full house, which is why we expanded to 3 workshops instead of 1 originally planned, because of the overflow. But our license expires on 18 June, so this is the last and final workshop which we can hold.

This fully subsidised Skillsfuture workshop will give you the skills and roadmap to build a second source of income to plan for early financial freedom, by building an all-weather portfolio that can perform well in any market conditions, and also market timing skills to create additional cashflow from short/medium-term trades.

Date: 13 & 14 June 2020 (6pm to 10pm)

Click here to check availability:
? https://wp.me/P1riws-8OX

P.S. According to Skillsfuture regulations, the maximum intake is capped at 40 slots, so we will not be able to add new slots once all are filled up. Register early to avoid disappointment!

P.P.S. Your slot is only confirmed after you have completed payment, submitted your claims, and forwarded the confirmation screenshot to the organiser. If you did not complete the last step, your slot is still up for grabs to the next person who completes it.

? First-come, first-serve!
? See you soon! ?

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Spencer Li

Market Analysis – S&P 500 at the 200-Day Moving Average

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Now that the S&P 500 is at the crucial 200-day moving average level, will it be able to break though and make new highs?

What are some of the bullish and bearish catalysts for the stock market going forward?

Also, check out our Telegram poll (800+ votes) to see which direction people expect the market to go in the next 6 months.

Join our FREE Telegram channel for daily trading tips:
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Market Overview

Spencer Li

There are only a few products that are trending strongly, while most markets are in a sideways range.

This means that we should be expecting to take shorter trades (lower RR), or go down to smaller timeframes to pinpoint entries and exits.

 

The 200-Day Moving Average

Traditionally, the 200-day moving average serves as a good gauge of the market’s long-term trend.

If prices are above the 200-day moving average, then it is bullish, and if prices are below the 200-day moving average, then it is bearish.

Now, we see the S&P 500 poised exactly at the 200-day moving average.

Will it be able to clear the hurdle?

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spencer Li

New Highs or New Lows?

Recently, I did a market poll on my Telegram channel (check it out if you want to take part, or see the latest results), and the results are as follows:spencer Li1

Interestingly, about 40% are bullish, compared to 30% who are bearish, but the difference is not much.

And if you look at it another way, about 60% think that the market won’t be making new highs (new lows or sideways).

Here are some bullish and bearish catalysts I could think of:

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Tensions Between HK, USA & China

One major issue that could dictate market movements in the coming weeks is new national security laws which China plans to impose on HK, and how the US is going to react.

Relations between the US and China are already strained because of trade and the Covid virus, and this could become a proxy battle.

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Join our Last 2 Skillsfuture Workshops!

Last weekend, we conducted another full-house Skillsfuture workshop, with 40 pax of new traders & investors, as well as some of my past students who sat in to help out.

There were so many sign-ups that we had to turn some people away, and ask them to join the next intake on 30 & 31 May. Although the next class is still 2 weeks away, it is already almost full, so before my license expires on 18 June, I will open one final class on 13 & 14 June to accommodate this influx of demand.

This fully subsidised Skillsfuture workshop will give you the skills and roadmap to build a second source of income to plan for early financial freedom, by building an all-weather portfolio that can perform well in any market conditions, and also market timing skills to create additional cashflow from short/medium-term trades.

Dates:
30 & 31 May 2020 (6pm to 10pm)
13 & 14 June 2020 (6pm to 10pm)

Click here to check availability:
? https://wp.me/P1riws-8OX

P.S. According to Skillsfuture regulations, the maximum intake is capped at 40 slots, so we will not be able to add new slots once all are filled up. Register early to avoid disappointment!

P.P.S. Your slot is only confirmed after you have completed payment and submitted the confirmation to the organiser. If you registered but did not complete payment & submission, your slot is still up for grabs to the next person who completes it.

? First-come, first-serve!
? See you soon! ?

 

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Spencer Li

Market Analysis – Which Tech Stocks to Buy? (Shopping List)

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As tech stocks continue to surge, while the S&P 500 and the general economy lags behind, it is important to select the right sectors and stocks to invest in.

Also, as the US gradually opens its economy and talks of a new potential vaccine surfaces, will these be able to boost the V-shaped recovery of the stock market?

And more importantly, which specific stocks are the best to invest in?

Join our FREE Telegram channel for daily trading tips:
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Market Overview

Market Overview

While most of the markets are sideways or in weak trends, we see that a few things continue to remain strong, such as Gold, the US dollar, and the NASDAQ.

 

Upcoming News for the Week

Upcoming News

 

How is the Economy Faring?

There seems to be a large disparity between various sectors, and last week several famous fund manager like David Tepper and Stanly Druckenmiller said that they feel the market is too expensive at current levels.Economy Faring

 

Some good news on the virus front, with a potential vaccine being found. It might still take months before we see an end product, but at least this gives us some hope.Economy Faring 2

 

As the US gradually reopens its economy, so far we have not seem any sharp spike in cases, so that is a good sign. However, since there is a delay between infections and testing, only time will tell.
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Is Gold Starting a New Super Trend?

We have been getting some solid buy signals for Gold, and the charts show that it has potential to break new highs.

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NASDAQ vs. S&P 500

There is a curious divergence on the NASDAQ versus the S&P 500, which is due to the fact that tech stocks have fared much better and recovered faster than the rest of the economy.

Since this divergence could persist or even widen, it makes sense that we should continue focusing our investments in tech counters.

Since my visit to Silicon Valley and various offices there in 2018, I have been very bullish on the tech sector.

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Choosing the Right Sectors to Invest In

Looking at where the big money is flowing, Warren Buffett is selling off the airlines and financial stocks, while the Saudi sovereign fund is buying up huge chunks of US stocks.

Invest In

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Best Tech Stocks to Invest In

Here is the shopping list of my favourite tech stocks, which I plan to buy and hold for the long-term.

  • Alibaba (BABA)
  • Tesla (TSLA)
  • VISA (V)
  • Mastercard (MA)
  • Facebook (FB)
  • Amazon (AMZN)
  • Mircrosoft (MSFT)
  • Apple (AAPL)
  • Google (GOOG)
  • Disney (DIS)
  • Nvidia (NVDA)
  • Shopify (SHOP)
  • Paypal (PYPL)
  • Salesforce (CRM)

 

Start Your Trading Journey Today!

If you are interested to start your journey with our closely-knit community, click here: https://synapsetrading.com/the-synapse-program/

Here is some feedback from our students:

“Spencer has simplified a system which allow us to identify trade opportunities from the chart. The step by step identifying the market and setups helps making technical analysis simpler to understand.” – Siong Boon

“You make it so easy to trade, just by following the 4 setups.” – Tan Jiansen

“Course is awesome with key examples and setups to start trading!” – Robert Tan

“Gd. Anyone who want to trade profitably should attend this program.” – Jason Tan

“I learn how to read charts more accurately without tedious drawing of charts and proper money management techniques. 2 thumbs up!” – Joel

To read feedback form all our past students, click here: https://synapsetrading.com/testimonials/

See you on the inside! ?

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Spencer Li

Market Analysis – Economy is Tanking But Stock Market is Rising?

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As various countries started loosening the lockdown to save the flailing economy, we get news reports of new infections starting to surge.

At the same time, we see multiple asset classes surging in the market, creating a stark contrasting reality.

The big question is, which is leading and which is lagging? (Economy vs. Financial markets)

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5 Bullish Asset Classes

Economy is Tanking But Stock Market is Rising

It is quite rare to see so many asset classes perform so strongly, especially when the economy is not doing well, and this is probably due to excess liquidity.

In addition, many of these asset classes usually move in opposite directions from one another, which makes it all the more strange.

Here are the 5 asset classes:

  • NASUSD – Nasdaq stock index
  • XAUUSD – Gold
  • USDIDX – US Dollar index
  • TNOTEUSD – 10-year treasury bond
  • BTCUSD – Bitcoin (not listed above)

 

V-shape Recovery for the Stock Market?

The stock market (especially the Nasdaq) has already recovered almost all its losses for the year, but will it be able to chug ahead and make new highs?

V-shape Recovery for the Stock Market

 

According to the Wall Street Journal, here are 5 reasons why the stock market is rallying so strongly despite the economy not doing well.

V-shape Recovery for the Stock Market 2

 

On the other hand, we are also seeing a large outflow of funds from stock markets, so could this be investors starting to take profits after the recent strong rally?

V-shape Recovery for the Stock Market 3

 

Will Lockdowns End Soon to Save the Economy?

Last Friday we also had the NFP (non-farm payroll), and although it was slightly better than expected, the numbers still do not look good, unless they find a way to reopen the economy safely.

Save the Economy

 

Several countries have started to loosen the lockdowns and get the economy back to normal, but it seems like a tricky balancing game / whack-a-mole, because any small outbreak can trigger new lockdowns all over again.

Over in Russia, the outbreak seems to be getting worse as well.

Save the Economy 2

Taking My Profits for Bitcoin at $10,000

Recently, Paul Tudor Jones mentioned in an interview that he is bullish on the stock market, and buying Bitcoin to hedge against inflation.

Taking My Profits for Bitcoin

 

If you have been following our Bitcoin trades, we have been accumulating since $4,000+, and we have taken profits at $10,000 last week, so we will be waiting for lower prices to buy again.

Taking My Profits for Bitcoin 2Taking My Profits for Bitcoin 3Taking My Profits for Bitcoin 4

This is one of our best trades this month, with a profit of more than 100%. This shows that you do not need to be making many trades a day, but rather be patient and wait for the best opportunities, then strike when the iron is hot. Congrats! ???

 

Start Your Trading Journey Today!

If you are interested to start your journey with our closely-knit community, click here: https://synapsetrading.com/the-synapse-program/

Here is some feedback from our students:

Trading Journey Today

“I signed up for the training course just 2 weeks ago, and i am still quite new to trading. Took some trades on the daily signals that Spencer posts daily, and very happy to have made 17% returns so far and covered back my course fee.” – Sandy

“I followed Spencer and bought Bitcoin, and have made more than 50% returns although I entered a bit late. Very impressed by the accurate timing.” – Kai

“I am very happy to be part of this community because the members are very kind and answer all my newbie questions to help me understand.” – MK

To read feedback form all our past students, click here: https://synapsetrading.com/testimonials/

See you on the inside! ?

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Spencer Li

How to Pick the Market Bottom (As Well As Market Tops)

how to pick the market bottom

There is a common fallacy amongst many investors that because you cannot time the exact market tops and market bottoms in the stock market, therefore you cannot time the market at all, and market timing should be avoided.

This is simply not true.

While it is impossible to buy at the exact market bottom and sell at the exact market top, it is definitely possible to time your entries and exits to minimise your risk and maximise your returns.

A wise trader once told me that if you want to time the market, you must be willing to give up the top 1/8 and the bottom 1/8 of any move.

This means that instead of trying to capture the precise turning points in the market, we should focus on capturing the remaining 75% of the move, which forms the meat of every trend.

This is true not just for the stock market, but also very relevant to any market, like forex, commodities, etc. It also works on any timeframe, such as swing trading, intraday trading, position-trading, etc.

In this video, I share 2 simple strategies that a new investor or trader can use to pick tops and bottoms easily.

The first method has to do with scaling in, which is similar to dollar-cost averaging.

By studying how much stock markets usually decline (30-60% during corrections, you can allocate your capital to buy in at certain fixed points, such as the 30% mark, the 40% mark, the 50% mark, etc.

This allows you a low-risk way to buy in near the bottom, and the best part is that you do not even need any knowledge about how to read charts or how to analyse price trends.

The second method requires a bit more skill, as you will need to be familiar with technical analysis and reversal chart patterns.

By identifying bearish reversal chart patterns (such as the double top at the 2008 top), as well as bullish reversal chart patterns (such as the inverse head and shoulders pattern at the 2009 bottom), you will be able to time your trade near the top and bottom of every major move.

Enjoy the video, and remember to “like” and “subscribe”!

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