the time element

Every trader knows that using multiple timeframes can provide different perspectives on the market, and provide key information on the lead-lag relationship.

Small timeframes lead larger ones, and larger ones drive the smaller ones. Understanding the inter-play is crucial.

infographic THE TIME ELEMENT CHOOSING THE CORRECT TIMEFRAME

Since trends exist on different timeframes, it makes sense to analyse at least two timeframes.

For example, if one’s main timeframe is the daily chart, one can consult the weekly chart to see the big picture.

This allows investors to analyze a particular trend against the perspective of the next higher timeframe.

If one is using swing counts, a lower/higher high/low in the weekly and monthly charts can provide perspectives not seen in daily charts.

Long-term trendlines may be clearer, and more obvious/easily visible.

Certain price patterns are more visible on long-term charts (key reversals, triangles on weekly), as well as long -term support and resistance levels.

A trend change signal on the short-term (daily) may only be a retracement in the long-term (weekly) chart.

On the other hand, a trend change signal in the long-term chart may be a substantial move in the short-term even though a short-term move may seem overdone.

Hence, an overdone breakout on the short-term trend may actually be the start of a major breakout if the long-term chart is still on an uptrend.

Divergence signals are also more obvious when timeframe is compressed, for example a price-volume divergence is more obvious on the weekly compared to the daily.

Divergences on the larger timeframes also point to larger moves, and could herald major reversals.

Choosing the Correct Timeframe

 

The Dual Timeframe Technique 

This involves using 2 different timeframes to trade, one to provide the roadmap and the other to time the precise entries and exits.

Strategic Timeframe: This timeframe acts as a roadmap for the execution timeframe, giving you an idea of longer-term trends, hence providing you strategic direction on how to select your setups and manage your trades.

Execution Timeframe: This is your main timeframe for trading, and will be what you are looking at as you decide on your stoploss, entries, and exits. The focus is on precision and timing, so this timeframe is like zooming in from your strategic timeframe.

For example, for my strategies, I use:

  • Strategic Timeframe: Weekly chart
  • Execution Timeframe: Daily chart
  • Expected holding period: Can last for a few days to a few weeks (if the trend is strong)

If you are doing intraday trading, then your strategic timeframe might be the daily chart, while your execution timeframe might be the 5-minute or 15-minute chart.

In conclusion, using multiple timeframes allows one to better identify trends, and more precisely pinpoint entries and exits by zooming in and zooming out from the initial point of reference.

This also allows one to better manage risk in line with one’s time horizon and investment timeframe.

 

thumbnail beginner guide to trading and TA

If you would like to learn how to get started in trading, also check out: “The Beginner’s Guide to Trading & Technical Analysis”

 

What Moves Prices in the Financial Markets

Despite what people may otherwise tell you or any preconceived ideas you may have, there are only two things that move stock prices.

They are supply and demand – nothing more and nothing less. This is the foundation of basic economics as shown in the graph below.

Since quantity remains the same, price is what fluctuates as a results of supply and demand.

If there is more demand than supply for a stock, then the price shall rise.

Conversely, if there is more supply than demand for something, then the price shall fall.

This is absolutely true in any market.

what moves market prices supply demand

 

The next question is what affects the supply and demand for a particular security or traded instrument.

Is it the profits in the financial statements? The upcoming expansion plans? The new product? Is it dividend payments?

No one can be absolutely sure at any point why people may be buying and selling shares.

That’s where technical analysis comes into play.

At no time does technical analysis attempt to determine why there might be supply and demand, only that there are certain levels of supply and demand.

By studying actual movements in the price and volume, we can go a long way to determining what the present demand and supply is and therefore predicting the future direction price will take.

All fundamental and economic influences on a share price are already taken into consideration in the market, which is reflected in the price.

As a trader, what you are buying and selling is the actual price, not financial statements or ratios like the P/E ratio or ROE figures.

Ultimately, it is the price that ultimately determines whether you make money or not, and what you think the price should be has NO influence whatsoever on the price.

The next big revelation is that the bulk of supply and demand does not come from retail traders or retail investors.

They come from the big boys (BB) and smart money (SM) like traders and fund managers in banks, funds and other institutions.

They are the ones who move the market.

Learning to interpret price action and volume is our window to tap into their psyche and profit from their actions.

who controls market bulls bears

Supply refers to the sellers (bears) who are looking to sell (which pushes prices down), whereas demand refers to the buyers (bulls) who are looking to buy (which pushes prices up).

The constant battle between the buyers and sellers creates fluctuations in prices, which can be as short as a few seconds, or create trends which can last for years.

As a trader, finding the sweet spot where there is an imbalance in the forces (such a a huge build-up of buyers or sellers on either side) can give you an edge in the market, so that you can enter the market just as a big move is about to occur.

 

thumbnail beginner guide to trading and TA

If you would like to learn how to get started in trading, also check out: “The Beginner’s Guide to Trading & Technical Analysis”