Roughly 3 months ago, I embarked on a one month road trip across the US and Canada, and here are the list of places I covered:
San Francisco, Silicon Valley, Salt Lake City, Jackson Wyoming, Grand Teton, Yellowstone, Rocky Mountains, Arches, Canyonland, Capitol Reef, Bryce Canyon, Zion, Grand Canyon, Death Valley, Yosemite, Devil’s Tower, Mount Rushmore, Lake Tahoe, Colorado National Monument, Les Vegas, Antelope Canyon, Horseshoe Bend, Toronto, Niagara Falls, San Antonio, Austin, Fort Worth (Texas)
It was a great chance for me to test out my new forex trading signals which allowed me to trade on the go, and I must say the results were pretty stunning.
https://synapsetrading.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/us-trip-2-040918.png875758Spencer Lihttps://synapsetrading.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/logo.jpgSpencer Li2018-09-04 07:54:422022-03-09 13:51:39Epic 1-Month Road Trip Across 9 US States & Canada!
This year, I was invited to speak at Invest Fair again, and I was glad to have the chance to share about my strategies and the latest investment opportunities. 😀
As with past years, the turnout was pretty awesome, and this year they had a lot of interesting new booths including crowd-funding and Cryptocurrencies.
Based on last week’s price movements, we can see that the biggest gains involved the weakness of the Yen (EUR/JPY, CHF/JPY, GBP/JPY, NXD/JPY), and also some hedging instruments like Gold and Bitcoin.
The biggest decline was from Ethereum.
Source: barchart.com
Medium Term Trends (Past 100 Days)
Looking at the past 100 days (about 5 months) trend, we can see that there is a gradual uptrend of USD, but there are more bearish trends as compared to bullish trends.
The most bearish trends are from commodities like Gold, Silver and Ethereum, followed by great weakness in the GBP and NZD. Hence if we are looking to trade with the trend, these would be potential short opportunities.
Source: barchart.com
Upcoming Major News
Not a particularly exciting week for news, so we can expect prevailing trends to continue without much surprises.
Do note that all trade ideas MUST NOT be executed until the correct trigger is given, as timing is of utmost importance. This is also a high chance that we may see better trades during the week and take those trades instead of these. For real-time trade signals, do join our free Telegram channel: https://t.me/synapsetrading
Source: TradingView
AUD/CHF is in a large sideways trend, and price has fallen to a major support level. Good chance of seeing a rebound. This is a short-term counter-trend trade.
Source: TradingView
USD/JPY has just completed a pullback, and looks to be in a good position to start a new move up. This is a medium/long-term position.
Source: TradingView
GBP/AUD looks like it is going to continue its downtrend. This is a medium/long-term trade.
GBP/CAD is also a good consideration. We shall see which one triggers first.
Daily Leverage Certificates (DLCs), since its launch in 17th July 2017, has been gaining attention in the local scene. InsideINVEST talks to Alvin Li from Societe Generale and Spencer Li, a well known trader in the local community on what to expect of DLC.
Table of Contents
Retail Investors will tend to think of DLCs as a complex product. How will you simplify it for retail investors?
Alvin: DLC has been introduced to the market for one year. From our discussions with investors over the past year, I think many of them actually find this product easy to understand. A 7x Long DLC moves 7% for every 1% increase in the underlying asset (before costs and fees). I think it is intuitive enough.
Spencer: At first, investors may take a bit of time to understand the features of the product and how its prices are linked to the underlying index. But once they get the hang of it, they will find it a simple and useful product to capture moves in the general stock market. Also, since it is not traded on margin, investors will not risk losing more than what they put in.
What are the significant new developments of DLCs since its launch about 1 year ago?
Alvin: We first started by launching 10 DLCs on SGX July last year. The first batch of DLCs includes 3 times and 5 times leverage, long and short on three equity indices, namely Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index and MSCI Singapore Free Index. Then earlier in Jan this year we expanded the leverage to 7 times. Nowadays most of the trading activities are on the 7 times.
In your view, what kind of investors are best for trading of DLC?
Spencer: Because of the daily compounding effect, DLCs are better for short-term trading, and for strong trending markets, hence it would be a perfect fit for intraday trend traders. This means that a trader does not need to know the specifics of every stock; all he needs to know is the general direction of the local stock market (via indices) to profit from it. In addition, this also protects the trader from the volatility of individual stocks.
DLCs can also be used to hedge any short-term downside risk for an investment portfolio. If you anticipate a market correction coming but do not want to sell your stocks, you can use the Short DLC to hedge and protect your portfolio from any losses.
What is the one key feature of DLC that appeals to retail investors?
Alvin: I think DLC is simple as mentioned before. Also, the fact that it is listed on the SGX makes it a transparent product. Compared to CFD that is over-the-counter, different CFD provides may show different price, but if you trade DLC there is only one price at a time, because it is listed on the exchange. We also publish our costs and fees on our website on a daily basis which makes the product more transparent.
What is your trade plan for DLC and what are the risk involved?
Spencer: As mentioned previously, DLCs are good for short-term trend trading, and it allows traders to go both long and short, by buying a Long DLC to express a bullish view and buying a Short DLC to express a bearish view.
One popular strategy is to apply a multiple timeframe approach, for example if the daily chart of the Singapore market (MSCI Singapore Free Index) is bearish, one can then zoom in to the 5-min or 15-minue intraday chart to find good short entries, and take a short trade by buying a Short DLC.
And because of the leverage involved, not much capital is required, so it allows traders who are very confident of the trend to make larger bets with a small amount of capital to maxismise returns. Of course, this will increase the risk as well, which is why a trader needs to be good in analyzing the trends, and applying proper risk management.
How is the market response to DLC so far and are we expecting further enhancement to the product in the next 1 year?
Alvin: I think DLC has received very good tractions over the past year. It has traded over S$ 3 billion since its launch. And the outstanding value (position held by investors) has also been on a steady uptrend. We are now working on expanding it to single stock counters, on both Hong Kong and Singapore stocks, subject to regulatory approval.
To sum up, what is the one piece of advice that you will give to retail investors, encouraging them to add DLCs into their portfolio?
Alvin: I think understanding your product is the most important to successful trading and investing. I would suggest investors, especially those who have not traded the product before, go to our website dlc.socgen.com to learn and make sure you understand the product. I would also suggest they proactively give us feedback so that we know what they want and how we can do better.
Spencer: There are many different products available to traders in the market, but the most important thing is to find a product that fits your trading style and personality. DLCs contain many unique features that allow short-term traders to profit from strong moves in the stock market, and I think it is a good idea to read up and learn more about this product to see if it is a good fit for you.
To help you get started, I have compiled a comprehensive database of practical trading knowledge and strategies, including many good articles about DCLs: https://synapsetrading.com/synapse-online-academy
If you’ve been reading the news, you will know the US stock market is at an all-time high, and quite possibly one of the longest bull runs in history. According to Zerohedge, this is the longest bull run since the great pyramid boom of 2580 B.C.
But I think the big question on everyone’s mind is this:
Is this a Good Time to buy Now?
If you believe that markets follow the boom and bust cycle, such as the 10-year cycle, you will know that we are “overdue” for a big correction. Logic dictates that we aim to buy after a big crash to get the best value (and most potential upside), hence buying at the all-time highs might not seem like a good idea to many people.
If you look at the current chart of the S&P 500, you will see that the price is just testing the prior highs, which means that it is at a very critical point.
If prices get rejected at this level, it could end up forming a double top reversal pattern, which is very bearish and could see a decline to the 2280 levels.
For the strong uptrend to continue, prices need to confidently break above the prior highs and stay above that level.
What Could Go Wrong?
With escalating political tensions with many countries, and the trade war with China, a confluence of negative factors could adversely affect the fundamentals of the US economy.
https://synapsetrading.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/roller-coaster.jpg500760Spencer Lihttps://synapsetrading.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/logo.jpgSpencer Li2018-08-24 05:03:322022-03-07 16:17:23Longest Bull Run in the US Stock Market – Good Idea to Buy Now?
