Market analysis, insights and trading ideas on various markets and products!

crude oil 170919

Yesterday, oil prices spiked after crude oil facilities located in Saudi Arabia was attacked by terrorists, shutting down up to 5% of global crude oil output.

This was a large 10-20% move in prices, and was an easy trade to ride on the trend and momentum.

 

Oil Prices Spike After Attack on Saudi Arabia Facilities

There were 3 entry opportunities, 2 of which were flagged out in our “Daily Trading Signals”.

 

Daily Trading Signals

If you are inside our Free Telegram Channel, you would have seen that Crude Oil (WTIUSD) is currently on a weak bull trend, which means that we should be looking for opportunities to go long and ride on the uptrend.

 

Daily Trading Signals 2

For those subscribed to our premium “Daily Trading Signals”, the precise signal for entry came at 6.00am, when prices made a new 44-day high, and within 3 minutes had spiked to an 83-day high.

There are usually 5-10 trading signals a day, or even more, but the important thing is to trade consistently on the signals and manage your risk well, so that you can take advantage of all these opportunities.

Good luck, and trade well!

beginners guide to trading

For many who are new to trading or want to get started, it can be overwhelming to start your trading journey, due to the large amount of information out there on this topic.

As such, I have compiled this short guide to cover the key concepts and principles about trading and technical analysis, so that you will have a clear roadmap on how to get started on trading, and how to learn and progress in trading to become a better trader.

 

1. INTRODUCTION TO TRADING

 

1.1 What is Trading?

On a day to day basis, the price of every financial product moves up and down, for example you hear about stock prices moving up, or oil prices crashing, for different currencies appreciating or deprecating against one another.

At its core, trading is simply being able to make a profit from capturing these price moves.

If you buy a stock and it moves up, and you sell it at a higher price, you would have captured that price move and made a profit. Do this multiple times successfully, and you would be able to make a full-time living off it.

Of course, not every trade is going to be profitable, because sometimes you might get it wrong. But after making say 50-100 trades, if you are able to consistently make money, then it means you might have a winning trading system.

If you have ever been to a casino, you will know that over the long run you will lose money because the odds are against you. Although the casino’s edge is very small, over the long run and over a large number of transactions, it adds up to huge profits.

Trading is somewhat similar. If you can find an edge (through your analysis), exploit it over a large number of trades (money management), and can do it consistently without letting your emotions get in the way (mindset), then you will have a chance to become very successful in trading.

 

1.2 Trading vs. Investing

The first problem many people face is not knowing whether to use their money for investing or trading. Since they usually start off with a fixed sum of money, they have to decide on one or the other to start off.

trading-vs-investing

Many people will small sums of money then make the common mistake of “playing it safe”, perhaps after hearing stories of Warren Buffett or about how “risky” trading is, and then decide to just put their money in things like bonds or ETFs, with a low return of 1-5% a year.

The problem with this approach is that unless you have a large amount of money to start with, you will take a whole lifetime just to build a decent-sized portfolio. For example, if you consistently grow your portfolio at a compounded rate of 3% every year with no losses, it would take you 24 years just to double your portfolio. And what happens if you get caught in a market crash?

 

[Video: Should I Start off with Trading or Investing?]

 

So if you are starting with a small sum of money, it definitely makes more sense to focus on trading at the start, which can give you 3-5% monthly cashflow, which you can then use to grow your long-term investment portfolio faster.

As a simple rule, I would suggest for you to focus on trading until you have at least $100,000 capital before you start looking to do investing.

And once you have hit that milestone, you can continue to do both trading and investing, because trading can provide monthly cashflow, while investing can provide long-term passive income, so they both complement each other.

retirement-investment-portfolio

If you are new to trading & investing, you can also check out this full list of common trading & investing terms, and consider bookmarking it so that you can use it for reference if you come across a new term or jargon which you are unfamiliar with.

 

1.3 What Products Should I Trade?

The next major decision you have to make as a trade is to decide what markets and what financial products to trade, since there are many options available.

The major financial markets are stocks, bonds, real estate, foreign exchange (forex), and more recently, cryptocurrencies.

Stocks, or shares, are basically ownership in a business/company, so when you buy a stock, you essentially own a small percentage of the company.

Bonds are loans that are made to businesses (corporate bonds) or to the government (government bonds), on which the lender is obliged to pay back the capital plus interest. As interest rates fluctuate, the prices of the bonds will also change.

Real estate, or property, can refer to the land or building, and it can generate revenue by collecting rent or by appreciating in value over time.

Forex, or currencies, refers to the exchange rate between 2 different currencies. If you think that one currency (eg. EUR) is going to appreciate against another currency (eg. USD), you can buy a contract of EUR/USD, which is essentially the same as selling USD to buy EUR. This is no different from what you do when you go to the money changer before you embark on your vacation overseas, albeit in much larger quantities.

Cryptocurrencies, or crypto for short, is a relatively new asset class which is meant to be a sort of global currency, but adoption is still not widespread, although it is growing steadily. From a market perspective, it is pretty much the same as foreign exchange, meaning you can trade it against normal currencies.

Financial products allow you to invest in the financial markets (those that we mentioned above), so you can directly take a position in those markets.

In addition to taking a direct position, there are also financial products that allow you to take an indirect position in the market. These products are pegged to prices of particular markets, and their prices are derived indirectly from these markets. Hence, they are known as derivatives, and some examples include forward contracts, futures contracts, CFDs, options.

Forwards (or forward contracts) are agreements between a buyer and seller to trade an asset at a future date. The price of the asset is set when the contract is drawn up. Forward contracts have one settlement date—they all settle at the end of the contract.

Futures (or futures contracts) are similar to forward contracts, except that they are traded on an exchange and are settled on a daily basis until the end of the contract. Forward contracts are used primarily by hedgers who want to cut down the volatility of an asset’s price, while futures are preferred by speculators who bet on where the price will move.

CFDs (or contract for difference) are a way to profit from price movements without owning the underlying asset.

Options grant you the right, but not the obligation to buy or sell an underlying asset at a set price on or before a certain date.

While it might seem confusing because there are too many choices, most new traders will start off with the easiest products like forex, stocks, or CFDs.

 

2. UNDERSTANDING THE MARKETS

 

2.1 The Only Two Things that Move Prices 

Despite all you read in the news, there are really only 2 things that move prices – supply & demand.

Supply refers to the sellers (bears) who are looking to sell (which pushes prices down), whereas demand refers to the buyers (bulls) who are looking to buy (which pushes prices up).

The constant battle between the buyers and sellers creates fluctuations in prices, which can be as short as a few seconds, or create trends which can last for years.

who-controls-market-bulls-bears

As a trader, finding the sweet spot where there is an imbalance in the forces (such a a huge build-up of buyers or sellers on either side) can give you an edge in the market, so that you can enter the market just as a big move is about to occur.

 

2.2 Basics of Technical Analysis 

Technical analysis is the studying of charts (price, volume, etc) to understand the current supply and demand, which allows you to predict the future probabilities of whether prices will head up or down, thus giving you an edge to take calculated risks.

what-is-technical-analysis

There are 2 main schools of thought – the classical approach vs. the statistical approach.

The classical approach came about before there were computers, when people manually plotted charts on graph paper, and drew lines (support, resistance, trendlines, channels) to identify behavioral patterns and price chart patterns. Even now, it is still widely popular.

The statistical approach uses data and mathematical formulas (indicators, algorithms) to find mathematical patterns and predict probabilities.

Personally, I find the current best approach is to use a combination of both. Just like in driving, you can rely on the autopilot to help you do calculations and provide useful input, but in certain scenarios it is better to manually take over.

 

2.3 Technical Analysis vs Fundamental Analysis

[Video: Technical Analysis vs. Fundamental Analysis]

For many new traders, one of the most common question I get is regarding the method of analysis to use, and it usually boils down to technical analysis vs fundamental analysis.

Technical Analysis (TA) gives you a fast and simple way to scan through data, find good opportunities, and make a trading decision.

Fundamental Analysis (FA) helps you understand the big picture and why prices are moving in certain ways.

fundamental-analysis-for-forex

Personally, I find that the best approach is to combine them to get the best of both worlds.

technical-analysis-vs-fundamental-analysis

 

3. THE 3 Ms OF TRADING

money-method-mindset-1030x774

 

3.1 Methodology

The 3Ms of Trading are Methodology, Money Management, and Mindset, and they each play a crucial role in your success in trading.

Methodology refers to your method of analysis, your strategy, your setups, basically the basis on which you make your buying and selling decisions.

As we mentioned in the previous section, the most common tools used to make such decisions are technical analysis, fundamental analysis, or some combination of both.

 

3.2 Money Management

Money management, or risk management, refers to how well you use your trading capital, to maximize your returns, while at the same time minimizing your risk.

This includes your capital allocation per trade, such as the 2% money management rule, and also things like risk paramaters for each trade, such as maximum drawdown limits.

This means that for each trade, you will need to decide on the entry price (EP), stoploss price (SL), and target profit (TP) before you make each trade, so that you will be able to calculate the reward-to-risk (RR) ratio to decide whether it is worth taking the trade.

To be profitable in trading, all you need is a good balance between the win ratio (aka. hitrate) and the reward to risk ratio, to ensure that you have a net positive expectation on every trade.

For example, if you have a 40% win ratio, and your reward/risk ratio is 2, you will still end up net profitable in the long run.

mathematics-behind-trading

 

3.3 Mindset 

The mindset, or trading psychology, is definitely the most important aspect of trading, and it is also the hardest to master.

This will determine how well you can make good decisions under stress, and consistently execute your trading plan without getting swayed by emotions.

Thinking accurately requires a certain level of self-awareness, so that we can avoid any behavioral biases that skew our rational thinking and decision-making process.

 

4. HOW TO CREATE A TRADING PLAN

 

4.1 How Much Capital Do I Need to Start Trading?

[Video: How Much Capital Do I Need to Start Trading?]

For new traders looking to start out their journey, what is the minimum amount of capital you will need to start trading?

What is the optimal amount of capital you should use to ensure that you take your trading seriously?

how-much-capital-to-start-trading

The answer to this question is quite simple – you should find an amount which is not so large that you cannot afford to lose, yet is not so small that you do not have any “skin in the game”.

And lastly, does it make sense to start out with demo trading?

 

4.2 Key Ingredients of a Winning Trading Plan

If you have ever tried starting a business, you will know that the first thing you will need is a business plan, which states out from A to Z your business idea, how you will go about executing the plan, and the ways to measure the performance, etc.

The same goes for a trading plan.

Before you start trading, you will need a comprehensive plan that covers:

  • Your general strategy and approach
  • Markets and products to trade
  • Starting capital and allocation strategy
  • Specific rules for entering and exiting a trade
  • Trade parameters (entry price, stoploss, target profit)
  • Risk parameters (risk per trade, open risk, monthly risk)
  • Evaluation metrics (how to measure and improve performance)
  • Trading psychology rules to keep your emotions in check

 

5. GENERAL RULES & MISTAKES TO AVOID

 

5.1 Do Not Rely Too Much on Indicators

One of the most common mistakes for new traders is to rely too much on indicators, and to end up using too many indicators.

Traders need to keep in mind that indicators are just mathematical formulas which help to calculate the probability of which way prices are heading, and they do provide a useful INDICATION, hence the name INDICATOR, but I find them less useful in providing absolute buying/selling rules.

Personally, I prefer to focus on price action analysis and classical analysis, while using indicators as an additional indication to aid in the core analysis.

In addition, while using indicators, it is important to know the formula and calculation of the indicator which you are using, so that you know the raw data inputs which go into the calculation.

This will help you avoid using multiple similar indicators which use the same data input (and thus end up providing false confirmation), and will allow you to know which situations your chosen indicators will work well or will not work well.

For example, lagging indicators are more useful for defining long-term trends, but are hopeless for tracking short-term momentum and reversals.

 

5.2 The Quest for the Holy Grail

Another big danger to new traders is the idea of the holy grail of trading.

The holy grail can appear in many forms – a “sure-win” indicators, a “100% win rate” trading system, a “legendary” guru, or a “unique proprietary” software guaranteed to make you rich overnight.

They all hold the same promise – to make you rich quickly with little effort.

Unfortunately, there is no shortcut to success, no magic bullet that will make you a super trader overnight.

It takes hard work and dedication if you want to enjoy the bountiful financial rewards. For me, it took about 7 years before I managed to make my first million from trading, and it took a lot of hard work.

So, my advice to new traders is to stop jumping from system to system, hoping to find the holy grail (which does not exist).

Instead, start learning as much as you can, then find a good system and work with it until you find success.

 

5.3 Dangerous Myths About Trading

If you listen frequently to the mainstream media, or take advice from friends and family who are not traders themselves, they might give some good-intentioned but ill-informed advice, which could harm your trading results.

Such dangerous myths about trading might seem to be “common knowledge” because they keep getting repeated frequently, but have you stopped to consider whether they are really true?

Here are some common myths:

  • Trading is very risky because you can lose all your capital
  • Forex is more risky than stocks
  • Leverage increases your risk
  • You need a lot of capital to start trading
  • You need to trade very often if you want to make more money
  • You need to monitor prices and charts 24/7
  • Brokers are out to hunt your stoploss

Do these sound familiar?

 

5.4 Essential Trading Rules

To help you avoid the common pitfalls of trading, one of the best ways is to learn from the experience of professional traders, and set up some rules for yourself so that you do not make any blunders in the heat of the moment.

Based on my prior fund trading experience, I have compiled some of the best trading rules of professional traders which you can adapt for your own use.

These rules will help you control your emotions, manage your risk, manage your losing trades as well as your winning trades, avoid blowing up your account, etc.

 

In summary, trading might seem like a complex skill to learn, but if you break it down into its components, it is not a hard skill to master with some dedication and hard work, and the financial rewards are definitely worth it!

Good luck on your journey!

ndr 2018
ndr-2018

Image source: Mediacorp

During this year’s National Day Rally, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong talked about how Singaporeans will have to make some lifestyle changes and adapt to ease the pressures of the high cost of living in Singapore, as well as some of the government initiatives to help citizens cope.

Here are some of the major issues:

1. Cost of Housing

  • Currently, 80% of Singaporeans live in HDB flats, of which the downpayment can be made using CPF, making it affordable for most people to own a house.
  • The Home Improvement Programme aims to improve flats when they are about 60-70 years old, and will be extended to 230,000 flats in various estates. The new scheme is designed to make it easy for authorities to redevelop old estates over a long period, by subsidizing maintenance and repair costs for aging flats.
  • Owners of older HDB Flats will also get an opportunity to go en bloc before their leases run out as part of a new scheme dubbed Voluntary Early Redevelopment Scheme (VERS). Eligible residents will have a chance to decide whether the government can take back their flats once the leases clock the 70-year mark. This will allow the government to buy back their flats earlier, which can then be redeveloped, and the owners can use the cash from the sale to purchase a new house.
  • A 99-year HDB lease is long enough for flats to retain substantial value, and act as a good retirement nest egg for most Singaporeans.
  • For HDB owners whose lease has ended, the government will help them get a new one. Some of the oldest flats are more than 50 years old, which means that there is still 40+ more years before the lease expires.
  • Cooling measures have been taken to prevent excessive speculation of property prices in the private property market.

2. Cost of Healthcare

  • There will be a new health care package that will cater to the needs of people born in the 1950’s. Dubbed ‘The Merdeka Generation’ Package, the new scheme will cover areas such as outpatient subsidies as well MediSave top-Ups, payouts on long-term care and subsidies for MediShield Life.
  • The Community Health Assist Scheme (CHAS) which provides health care services for middle and lower income people will now also cover chronic medical conditions.
  • There will be new polyclinics in Sembawang, Eunos, Kallang and Bukit Panjang by 2020; and in Nee Soon Central, Tampines North by 2023

3. Cost of Utilities

  • With regard to the recent price hikes in electricity, the current prices are actually still lower as compared to 10 years ago.
  • As Singapore is not an oil producing country, fixing electricity tariffs may incur more cost in the long-run, hence is not a viable solution.
  • Instead, government initiatives such as U-Save will help lower-income Singaporeans with their utility bills.
  • Water prices are not expected to increase as ties with Malaysia are good and the ‘1962 Water Agreement’ remains in place

4. Cost of Food

  • The government is planning to increase the number of hawker centres, which is currently the main source of affordable meal options
  • In recent years, there have been 7 new hawker centres built, and we can look forward to 13 more in the coming years.
  • Will there be a new generation of hawkers to take over from the old retiring hawkers?

According to the EIU annual ranking, Singapore has been dubbed the world’s most expensive city to live in (for expats) for the fifth year running.

This could mean a stable economy and high standards of living, but it could also represent income inequality and a struggling lower income demographic.

It is a good sign that the government does not shy away from discussing such issues, and actively comes up with schemes to help citizens cope.

But the bigger question is whether such initiatives solve the root problem, or are merely stop-gap measures.

stock market crash

Since the crash of 2008, and the recovery which started in 2009, the stock markets (especially the US markets), have been on a steady uptrend.

Stock Market CrashChart: S&P 500 index (weekly chart)

Many of us have heard about the 10 year cycle, where the market is supposed to crash once every 10 years, for example the Asian markets during the 1997 currency crisis, and the global markets in 2007 during the subprime crisis.

However, in 2017, we did not see any significant crash or correction, which have led many analysts to rethink the theory.

So, in 2019-2020, should we be expecting a delayed crash, or are we experiencing a structural change in the markets?

Stock Market Crash 2

If we observe the supercycles of major human technological innovations, we see that each major wave of progress is driven by a major technological innovation, such as the steam engine in the 1700’s or the internet and IT advancements in the 1900’s.

And based on the cycles, we could be in the early stages of the 6th wave, which is going to be driven by the upcoming huge advancements in applications of big data, artificial intelligence, virtual reality, augmented reality, internet of things, and blockchain technology.

Stock Market Crash 3Source: The Market Oracle

This means that we could be on the cusp of a super bull market, if these technological advancements are able to create a quantum leap in productivity for businesses and a huge jump in the standards of living across the globe. All these would translate into stronger stock prices, which instead of crashing the market, would propel it to new heights.

However, there are also major concerns:

  • Unequal gains across companies: the major tech companies may soon dominate all industries via the application of new technologies.
  • High unemployment: If machines take all the jobs, what are humans going to do?
  • High debt and leverage of US and European economies
  • Political risks: clash of superpowers (US and China)

In summary, many retail investors are wary of entering the stock market now because it is at all time highs and has already “gone up a lot” since 2009, hence they are waiting for a “big crash” before going in.

However, this big crash may not come if successful widespread application of new technologies and innovation are able to drive a quantum leap in productivity.

cover 2

Recently, during an interview, I was asked this question, to suggest a possible portfolio allocation for people in their early 30s, with $250k of investible cash to start with. Here is my answer in full:

If you only have $250k to start with, I would suggest a diversified approach of various asset classses to maximise returns:

  • 25% allocated to cash (war chest)
  • 10% to wild bets
  • 20% to trading account
  • 20% to commodities
  • 20% to businesses, startups, angel investments
  • 5% to stocks, REITs, ETFs

Currently, the bulk of the holdings is in cash, since the market is pretty “risk-on” at the moment with much political and economic uncertainty about trade wars and real wars. Hence, I only included minimal stock holdings, as the stock markets (S&P 500)are at 10-year highs, so I will wait to buy in at a lower price should the opportunity arise.

One important factor is the 20% allocation to trading account, as this generate monthly cashflow from stocks/forex trading to continue growing the total portfolio size aggressively, which can then be allocated to other asset classes within the portfolio.

10% to cryptocurrencies and startups is considered a “wild bet” which could be a zero or hero; lastly 20% to businesses is for people who have some prior experience to invest directly in businesses, or start their own. Personally, my portfolio includes several businesses, including a cafe and pub.

I have allocated 20% to commodities, as commodities are likely at their cycle low. The GSCI (Goldman Sachs Commodity Index) is one of the main benchmark for commodity prices, and the (GSCI/S&P 500) is used to measure the prices of commodities relative to stock prices. Currently, this measure is at a 50-year low, which suggests cheap commodities as a potential investment.

GSCI

I have excluded real estate from this sample portfolio, as I do not include “own stay” property as an investment asset, and $250k is too small for any major property investment. For my own portfolio, i have invested in several properties as I feel that the Singapore property market will continue to rise for the next 5-10 years.

I have also excluded fixed income, as for Singaporeans, the CPF (SA account at 4%) is pretty much similar to a “risk-free” high-yield bond, hence it serves well as the fixed income component of the portfolio. For my own portfolio, i have hit the minimum sum, which will provide a good safety net for retirement. For non-Singaporeans, any pension/retirement scheme which offers a fixed payout would serve the same purpose.

I hope this has provided you a good template to start building your portfolio, but do keep in mind that ideally you should be looking to rebalance your portfolio every 1-3 months.